1:20 — William Hill Bill Turner Memorial EBF Brocklesby Stakes (A Novice Stakes) (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)
5f · Soft · NOV · 15 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
1:50 — William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed Race)
6f · Soft · LST · 12 runners
My Mate Alfie likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
My Mate Alfie
Prominent · 3
Art PowerMyalSuper Soldier
Midfield · 4
MitbaahyAnnafAramramCaburn
Hold Up · 4
SpycatcherMontassibJasourJames's Delight
My Mate Alfie will take the field along from the front with minimal pressure, creating a sustainable early tempo that should suit the large contingent of hold-up horses. With Art Power, Super Soldier and Myal likely to race prominently behind the leader, the pace will be genuine but not destructive. This setup creates a tactical race where the numerous closers like Spycatcher, Montassib, Annaf and Jasour will need to find racing room in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustained Gallop Throughout
35% probability
If My Mate Alfie maintains a strong gallop and the prominent horses keep honest pressure
The pace stays solid from halfway, preventing the field from bunching and creating a true-run race. Hold-up horses with the best turn of foot will have their chance but need to be produced at the right moment.
SpycatcherArt PowerMontassibJames's Delight
B
Slow Early Messy Finish
30% probability
If My Mate Alfie goes too slow early and the prominent horses fail to apply pressure
The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole with a bunched field and traffic problems. Horses with tactical speed and clean runs will prevail over pure closers caught behind horses.
Art PowerMy Mate AlfieMyalSuper Soldier
C
Strong Pace Collapse
20% probability
If the prominent horses put unexpected pressure on My Mate Alfie from halfway
The early leaders tire badly in the soft ground, setting up the race perfectly for the strongest finishers. Pure hold-up horses with stamina will come through late to collar the weakening pace-setters.
MontassibAnnafJames's DelightAramram
D
Front Runner Dominates
15% probability
If My Mate Alfie gets loose on the lead and the soft ground blunts finishing kicks
The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the hold-up horses struggle to make inroads on the testing surface. Prominent racers with stamina reserves will chase home the winner.
My Mate AlfieArt PowerMyalSuper Soldier
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
My Mate Alfie's early position is crucial - if crowded or checked early the race shape collapses completely
WATCH
Traffic problems likely in straight with eight hold-up horses needing room simultaneously
WATCH
Spycatcher's heavy ground form may not translate to this softer but less testing surface
NOTE
Art Power's position through first two furlongs will indicate if pace will be honest enough
NOTE
James's Delight needs to be closer than usual given his inconsistent recent finishing efforts
2:25 — William Hill Epic Boosts Spring Mile Handicap
1m · Soft · HCAP · 22 runners
First Ambition likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
First Ambition
Prominent · 5
CadarnMezcalaEmpirestateofmindMilteyePressure's On
Midfield · 9
IntrusivelyClassic EncounterNaplesRainbow NebulaProsperitasLir SpecialeHigh On HopeOn The RiverZowal
Hold Up · 7
Sterling KnightFar From DandyPrincipalityPerfect PartCarronVincent RocksDesperate Dan
First Ambition is the sole confirmed front-runner and will likely get an uncontested lead with the prominent runners Mezcala, Cadarn, Empirestateofmind, Milteye and Pressure's On settling just behind. This creates a sustainable pace that heavily favours the 16 hold-up horses who can sit and sprint, turning this into a tactical affair where the strongest finishers from the pack will dominate.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
65% probability
If the pace stays steady and the field bunches up approaching the final 2f
The lack of early pace allows the strongest hold-up horses to get perfect positioning. Sterling Knight, Far From Dandy and Desperate Dan can unleash their superior ratings from ideal spots.
Sterling KnightFar From DandyDesperate DanNaples
B
Prominent horse survives
20% probability
If First Ambition gets a soft lead and the hold-up horses leave their runs too late
The front group maintains their advantage as the pack struggles to organize. Mezcala or Empirestateofmind can capitalize on their forward positions with their decent ratings.
MezcalaEmpirestateofmindFirst AmbitionMilteye
C
Soft ground specialist strikes
10% probability
If the going deteriorates further and affects the higher-rated horses
Horses with proven soft/heavy form gain significant advantages over those unproven on testing ground. On The River and Lir Speciale can exploit their strong wet weather records.
On The RiverLir SpecialeProsperitasMilteye
D
Field spreads and crawls
5% probability
If the pace becomes extremely slow and creates a blanket finish sprint
The large field compresses into a cavalry charge where anything can happen. Rainbow Nebula or Vincent Rocks could benefit from the chaos with their recent winning form.
Rainbow NebulaVincent RocksNaplesCarron
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
First Ambition gets too soft a lead early as no other horse wants to press the pace
WATCH
Sterling Knight and Far From Dandy get boxed in the large field despite being well-rated
WATCH
The prominent horses Mezcala, Cadarn and Empirestateofmind fail to capitalize on forward positions
NOTE
On The River and Lir Speciale benefit from any further deterioration in ground conditions
NOTE
Rainbow Nebula and Vincent Rocks travel smoothly through the race with their recent winning momentum
2:57 — William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race)
1m · Soft · LST · 5 runners
Lead contested: Volterra v Excellent BelieveHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
VolterraExcellent Believe
Prominent · 2
QiratTreble Tee
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Docklands
Volterra and Excellent Believe will contest the early lead, with both having confirmed front-running styles and recent form suggesting they'll engage from the start. The soft ground should produce an honest gallop rather than a sprint finish, with Qirat and Treble Tee tracking in behind while Docklands will need the pace to develop from his hold-up position.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Early Pace
40% probability
If Volterra and Excellent Believe engage in a sustained duel through the first half-mile
The pace will string out the field and favor horses with stamina reserves over pure speed. Docklands gets the strong gallop he needs while the leaders weaken in the final furlong.
DocklandsQiratTreble TeeVolterra
B
Volterra Controls Tempo
25% probability
If Volterra gets first run and dictates a more measured pace than expected
The front-runner can conserve energy and kick clear when the field comes under pressure. Excellent Believe tracks closest but lacks the class edge needed.
VolterraTreble TeeQiratExcellent Believe
C
Tactical Battle Develops
20% probability
If neither leader commits fully early and the pace becomes stop-start
The lack of consistent gallop will favor the more tactical runners who can quicken off a slower tempo. Qirat's class tells while Docklands struggles to get into the race from too far back.
QiratTreble TeeVolterraExcellent Believe
D
Excellent Believe Wire-to-Wire
15% probability
If Excellent Believe jumps fastest and gets an uncontested lead with Volterra slow away
The front-runner can dictate throughout and hold off late challenges on ground that suits. Recent heavy ground form gives confidence in these conditions.
Excellent BelieveDocklandsQiratVolterra
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Volterra breaking slowly would leave Excellent Believe with an uncontested lead and dangerous winning chance.
WATCH
Docklands needs to be positioned closer than usual given the small field and potential for steady early pace.
NOTE
Qirat's early position will indicate connections' confidence after the disappointing Newmarket run.
WATCH
The pace battle between the two leaders could set up the race for Docklands if both go too hard early.
NOTE
Treble Tee's ability to track the right horse early will determine whether he can outrun his rating again.
3:32 — William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap)
1m · Soft · HCAP · 22 runners
La Botte likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
La Botte
Prominent · 6
BotanicalGreat AcclaimAnno DominiUrban LionValvanoChristian David
La Botte will make the early running with minimal pressure from the prominent runners like Botanical, Valvano and Urban Lion. This creates a moderate but sustainable pace that should suit the large contingent of hold-up horses, with the real racing beginning inside the final two furlongs as the closers fan out for their challenges.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closers Dominate Late
40% probability
If the early pace stays steady allowing hold-up horses to close effectively
The prominent runners fade as multiple closers launch simultaneous challenges in the final furlong. Thunder Roar and Eternal Force benefit most from their patient tactics and strong finishing kicks.
If La Botte and the early prominent group maintain just enough kick to resist
The pace setters dig deep as the closers mount their challenge but fall just short. Botanical and Valvano use their tactical speed to hold off the late surge.
BotanicalValvanoGreat AcclaimAnno Domini
C
Soft Ground Specialists
20% probability
If the testing conditions favor horses with proven soft ground form
The combination of stamina-sapping ground and tactical pace allows proven performers on similar surfaces to emerge. Rogue Diplomat and Theoryofeverything show their class in these conditions.
If one of the prominent runners kicks on mid-race creating stronger pace
The tactical race becomes more end-to-end with stamina at a premium over the mile trip. Shout benefits from the stronger gallop while others struggle with the change of pace.
ShoutMirabeauTarkhanGreek Order
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
La Botte could go too fast early if pressured by the prominent runners, setting up the race for closers
WATCH
Thunder Roar's position early will be crucial given the large field and his need for racing room
NOTE
Rogue Diplomat's hat-trick bid depends on getting the right split in the home straight
WATCH
Eternal Force's recent winning momentum could be halted if the pace becomes too stop-start
NOTE
Botanical and Valvano represent the best chances if the prominent runners can resist the closers
4:05 — William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Soft · CLS3 · 9 runners
Valenday to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Valenday
Prominent · 2
High StormFaeberon
Midfield · 3
Super CrownRebel LegendMarasi Bay
Hold Up · 3
Turty TreeThree No TrumpsSailor Song
Valenday is the only confirmed front runner and will lead uncontested from the gates, setting a controlled gallop that won't tire him. With multiple hold-up horses including Turty Tree, Three No Trumps and Sailor Song needing to find room late, plus three unknown newcomers, this shapes as a race where tactical positioning will be crucial as the field compresses in the home straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Holds
35% probability
If Valenday maintains his sustainable pace without being challenged early
The lack of pace pressure allows him to dictate terms throughout and kick clear when asked. The hold-up brigade struggle to make up enough ground on soft ground that favors front runners.
ValendayFaeberonHigh StormMarasi Bay
B
Newcomers Show Early Speed
25% probability
If one or more of the three unraced horses (Marasi Bay, Rebel Legend, Super Crown) press Valenday early
The increased pace stretches the field and sets up a stronger finish for the closers. Valenday's tank empties in the final furlong under pressure.
Turty TreeThree No TrumpsSuper CrownRebel Legend
C
Prominent Pair Control Race
25% probability
If Faeberon and High Storm take more prominent positions than usual to avoid traffic
These two work together to put pressure on Valenday while staying clear of the crowded pack behind. The tactical switch pays dividends as they have first run on the leaders.
High StormFaeberonValendayMarasi Bay
D
Traffic-Free Hold-Up Win
15% probability
If the hold-up horses get clear runs and the pace collapses completely in the final quarter-mile
Sailor Song and Three No Trumps benefit from their stamina over this longer trip as the early leaders tie up. The soft ground aids their grinding finish style.
Sailor SongThree No TrumpsTurty TreeHigh Storm
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if any of the three newcomers show unexpected early speed to challenge Valenday as this could set up a completely different race dynamic
WATCH
Watch Faeberon's early positioning as he may need to be more aggressive than usual to avoid getting shuffled back
NOTE
Watch for traffic problems in the straight as multiple hold-up horses will be looking for the same gaps
WATCH
Watch Valenday's jumping from the stalls as getting away cleanly is crucial to his front-running tactics
NOTE
Watch the pace through the first half-mile as Valenday tends to go steady early before quickening
4:40 — William Hill NRMB On The Grand National Apprentice Handicap (Go Racing In Yorkshire Series) (Div I)
1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 15 runners
Glint Of Light likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Glint Of Light
Prominent · 2
Powerful ResponseSassy Glory
Midfield · 8
BownderAvatar JetUp The JazzDissidentEmery DownHibernateSovereign ApplauseBlackwater Lilly
Hold Up · 4
Mao Shang WongExpressionlessYokohamaElectric Avenue
Glint Of Light will take them along from the front with minimal pressure, as the field is heavily weighted toward hold-up horses. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favors the patient types who can finish, with 12 of 15 runners adopting hold-up tactics creating a potentially messy finish where positioning will be crucial.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Glint Leads Throughout
35% probability
If Glint Of Light maintains an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home
The lack of pace pressure allows the front-runner to dictate terms before finding extra gear. The hold-up brigade struggle to reel in the leader who has won on soft going before.
Glint Of LightPowerful ResponseSassy GloryDissident
B
Late Cavalry Charge
40% probability
If the soft ground and steady pace sets up a sprint finish from the back
The patient hold-up horses get their preferred scenario as the field bunches turning in. Multiple runners hit the line together with the strongest stayers prevailing.
ExpressionlessMao Shang WongYokohamaBownder
C
Prominent Pair Battle
15% probability
If Powerful Response and Sassy Glory track the leader closely and challenge early
The two prominent runners put pressure on Glint Of Light from halfway, creating a three-way battle. One of the prominent pair outlasts the pacesetter in the final furlong.
Powerful ResponseSassy GloryGlint Of LightUp The Jazz
D
Soft Ground Specialist
10% probability
If the underfoot conditions prove more testing than expected and favor proven soft performers
Dissident's soft ground form (1W 1P from 3 runs) becomes decisive as others struggle with the surface. The longer trip on testing ground plays to stamina rather than speed.
Glint Of Light getting away with soft fractions early - if unchallenged could prove unstoppable
WATCH
How the 12 hold-up horses position turning in - traffic problems almost inevitable with so many patient types
NOTE
Mao Shang Wong and Yokohama making soft ground debuts after consistent good ground form
WATCH
Powerful Response and Sassy Glory as the only prominent runners - must use tactical advantage
NOTE
Dissident's soft ground prowess could be underestimated given recent good ground runs
5:15 — William Hill NRMB On The Grand National Apprentice Handicap (Go Racing In Yorkshire Series) (Div II)
1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 15 runners
Three Dons likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Three Dons
Prominent · 2
Dancing TigerHashtagnotions
Midfield · 8
It's Only FunGolspieBay Dream BelieverRelevant RangeFire EyesMiners GambleRecobellaScarfo
Hold Up · 4
BearwithEndless WhisperDistinctionTee Aitch Aye
Three Dons will be the sole genuine leader in this 15-runner field, setting an uncontested gallop with Dancing Tiger and Hashtagnotions the only other prominent racers likely to press. The massive 13-strong hold-up contingent creates a bottleneck scenario where positioning and clear runs become critical, making this a tactical minefield where the early pace-setter gains a significant advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Dominates
45% probability
If Three Dons gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning in
Three Dons controls the tempo completely and has enough left to resist the late cavalry charge. The hold-up brigade gets in each other's way in a bunched finish.
Three DonsDancing TigerHashtagnotionsBearwith
B
Traffic Chaos Finish
30% probability
If the 13 hold-up horses create a wall of traffic in the straight
Three Dons ties up but those with clear runs profit from the scramble. Bearwith and Endless Whisper emerge from the pack with momentum.
BearwithEndless WhisperDancing TigerDistinction
C
Prominent Pair Strike
15% probability
If Dancing Tiger and Hashtagnotions pressure Three Dons throughout
The early pace becomes unsustainable for all three leaders, allowing a closer who doesn't get trapped. Golspie and Tee Aitch Aye benefit from the collapse.
Dancing TigerGolspieTee Aitch AyeDistinction
D
Perfect Hold-Up Execution
10% probability
If one of the backmarkers gets dream splits and perfect timing
The pace collapses completely and allows a patient ride to sweep through. Fire Eyes or Relevant Range capitalize on their sprint speed.
Fire EyesRelevant RangeBay Dream BelieverMiners Gamble
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Three Dons getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive with only two other forward horses
WATCH
Traffic problems are inevitable with 13 hold-up horses in a large field on the turn
WATCH
Dancing Tiger's heavy ground form makes them the main pace threat to the leader
NOTE
Bearwith and Endless Whisper need to be prominent early despite their hold-up labels
NOTE
Fire Eyes and Relevant Range require strong gallop and clear runs to show sprint speed
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.