Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:40 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Sarahmae likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Shadow Of The Moon and Daneh Of Dandy led; the map had Sarahmae in front.
Sarahmae won at 3.25 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sarahmae
Prominent · 2
Daneh Of DandyTreasured Royal
Midfield · 2
Mary ShoelacesTwo And Two
Hold Up · 2
Shadow Of The MoonBel Espoir
Sarahmae is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger likely to press her from the outset, she should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this flat 5f at Down Royal on Good turf. Daneh Of Dandy and Treasured Royal are the authentic prominent types behind her, and both will look to slot in close to the pace without burning energy fighting for position. The field does carry more front-running and prominent types than the map can accommodate — Mary Shoelaces and Two And Two are both natural pace-presser types but are unlikely to secure their preferred berths given the congestion, and will effectively race in a midfield role against their instincts, discounting their chance in a shape that rewards prominent running. With Sarahmae controlling a fair but not brutal tempo and no one likely to take it to her, this race shape strongly favours horses who can race close to the pace in the first two slots — true prominent types with the tactical speed to be delivered in the right place at the two-pole.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sarahmae Controls, Proximity Wins
68% probability
If Sarahmae dictates a fair pace unchallenged and prominent chasers Daneh Of Dandy and Treasured Royal sit close enough to pounce.
If Sarahmae dictates a fair pace unchallenged and prominent chasers Daneh Of Dandy and Treasured Royal sit close enough to pounce.
Daneh Of DandyTreasured RoyalSarahmaeShadow Of The Moon
B
Pace Flattens, Front Runner Holds
16% probability
If Sarahmae's tempo is soft enough that she simply sustains her lead all the way to the line against a modest hold-up challenge.
If Sarahmae's tempo is soft enough that she simply sustains her lead all the way to the line against a modest hold-up challenge.
SarahmaeDaneh Of DandyTreasured RoyalMary Shoelaces
C
Hold-Up Horses Storm Late
10% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong and Shadow Of The Moon or Bel Espoir can produce a late run from the back.
If the pace is genuinely strong and Shadow Of The Moon or Bel Espoir can produce a late run from the back.
Shadow Of The MoonBel EspoirMary ShoelacesTwo And Two
D
Pace Scramble, Disruptors Capitalize
6% probability
If Mary Shoelaces or Two And Two push hard early against their mapped position, fracturing the race shape and creating an uneven tempo.
If Mary Shoelaces or Two And Two push hard early against their mapped position, fracturing the race shape and creating an uneven tempo.
Mary ShoelacesTwo And TwoDaneh Of DandyTreasured Royal
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Daneh Of Dandy returns from 62 days off — watch if she moves fluently in the parade ring and if Donagh O'Connor positions her boldly early, as her two 5f Good wins make her a serious prominent-style threat if fit.
WATCH
Mary Shoelaces and Two And Two are both natural pace-presser types crammed into a midfield map — watch the first furlong to see if either pushes forward regardless, which would destabilise Sarahmae's intended controlled tempo.
WATCH
Shadow Of The Moon has placed twice at 5f on Good but fades in the finish — watch whether the pace is strong enough to stretch the race early; if it is a dawdle, her hold-up style leaves her with too much to do over this minimum trip.
NOTE
Sarahmae runs just 5 days after her last outing — watch her in the pre-race routine for any signs of freshness or fatigue, as her ability to dictate from the front is the single biggest structural factor shaping this entire race.
6:15 — WillWeGo Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Gonna Be Golden likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
The Right One and Spirit Above led; the map had Gonna Be Golden in front.
The Right One won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Gonna Be Golden
Prominent · 2
The Right OneCashel Blue
Midfield · 3
Spirit AboveThe Love MachineMini Cotai
Hold Up · 3
AughlishThis GuyBaby Basma
Gonna Be Golden is the lone confirmed front-runner in this nine-runner 5f handicap at Down Royal, and with no genuine challenger likely to match strides from the off, she should be able to dictate a sustainable, controlled gallop from the front. Cashel Blue and The Right One are the natural prominent types who will look to sit just off the pace, with The Right One boasting strong recent course form at this trip and going combination. Three true hold-up horses — Spirit Above, The Love Machine, and Mini Cotai — have been pushed into midfield on the map because the rear of the field is overcrowded with closers; none of them will get as far back as they ideally want, and their chances in any late-closers scenario are compromised accordingly. With one uncontested leader setting a measured tempo on good ground over a sharp 5f, this race shape strongly favours horses who can race prominently and sustain their effort through the final furlong rather than those who need a late split to arrive.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Dominate
62% probability
If Gonna Be Golden bowls along uncontested and the pace remains honest but not frantic, prominent racers who track close to the speed will have first run.
If Gonna Be Golden bowls along uncontested and the pace remains honest but not frantic, prominent racers who track close to the speed will have first run.
Cashel BlueThe Right OneGonna Be GoldenAughlish
B
Front Runner Holds Rivals
18% probability
If Gonna Be Golden meets no challenge whatsoever and her jockey Sam Coen times the fractions to perfection, she sustains her lead all the way to the line.
If Gonna Be Golden meets no challenge whatsoever and her jockey Sam Coen times the fractions to perfection, she sustains her lead all the way to the line.
Gonna Be GoldenThe Right OneCashel BlueAughlish
C
Hold-Up Types Swamp Leader
13% probability
If the pace collapses in the final furlong and a genuine gap opens late, the redistributed hold-up horses making up ground from midfield could benefit.
If the pace collapses in the final furlong and a genuine gap opens late, the redistributed hold-up horses making up ground from midfield could benefit.
AughlishBaby BasmaSpirit AboveMini Cotai
D
Chaotic Breakaway Pace
7% probability
If The Right One or Cashel Blue pushes the pace early and forces a faster-than-expected gallop that blows the race wide open.
If The Right One or Cashel Blue pushes the pace early and forces a faster-than-expected gallop that blows the race wide open.
Baby BasmaSpirit AboveAughlishThis Guy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cashel Blue's winning form over this exact course, distance, and going stands out — watch whether Chris Hayes secures a prominent position early, as he is likely to be the main threat to any leader.|
WATCH
The Right One's 191-day absence is the race's biggest form unknown — watch how he moves through the early stages, as any sign of ring-rustiness from a horse with obvious course credentials would significantly alter the shape.|
WATCH
Baby Basma is a 57-day returner whose only good-ground win came over this trip — if she bounces back fit under Leigh Roche and finds a prominent position from her draw, her form profile makes her dangerous despite the layoff.|
NOTE
Monitor whether Gonna Be Golden is challenged for the lead in the first furlong — if Cashel Blue or The Right One push up alongside her, the pace will lift and that shifts probability away from Scenario A and B toward the hold-up horses making ground.|
NOTE
Spirit Above, The Love Machine, and Mini Cotai are all natural hold-up types shown in midfield on the map due to field congestion — if any of them ends up further back than expected, their chance of getting competitive at a sharp 5f becomes severely diminished.|
6:50 — Ampion Electrical Test And Solar Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Clonmacash likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
She's A Gift led; the map had Clonmacash in front.
Nouvel Espoir won at 4.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Clonmacash
Prominent · 3
Collective PowerJordan BreezeNouvel Espoir
Midfield · 4
Spirit Of EaglesVerifiedShe's A GiftSkillman Ave
Hold Up · 3
Arctic StepsLethimflyShamanka
Clonmacash is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 11-runner 5f handicap and, with no genuine challenger for the early lead, will slot onto the pace and control tempo at a sustainable gallop rather than a scorching one. Collective Power and Jordan Breeze will race prominently just off Clonmacash's shoulder, creating a compact, orderly early shape where the front rank sets a measured but respectable clip on Good turf. With pace distributed across a small front band and no serious speed duel igniting, the race sets up as a test of finishing resolution rather than pure stamina — favouring horses who can sit in a handy position and produce a clean, sustained run through the final furlong. The field contains more hold-up runners than the map can accommodate at the rear: Spirit Of Eagles, Verified, She's A Gift and Skillman Ave are genuine back-of-the-field types who will be shuffled into a midfield map position that is not their natural ground; of these, Spirit Of Eagles and Arctic Steps are best placed to get closest to a favourable draw-dependent position. The race shape plainly favours prominent and tracking runners who can travel fluidly behind the controlled pace and pick up from two furlongs out without needing a deep closing run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Clonmacash Leads Controlled
58% probability
If Clonmacash leads uncontested at an honest but unhurried gallop and the race develops into a sustained duel from two furlongs out.
If Clonmacash leads uncontested at an honest but unhurried gallop and the race develops into a sustained duel from two furlongs out.
If pace quickens abruptly and the front runners are caught wide or flat, opening a gap for tracking horses to thread through.
If pace quickens abruptly and the front runners are caught wide or flat, opening a gap for tracking horses to thread through.
Arctic StepsLethimflyShe's A GiftSpirit Of Eagles
D
Complete Upset — Outsider Lands
8% probability
If the race falls apart tactically with the front runners stopping and genuine chaos develops in the final furlong.
If the race falls apart tactically with the front runners stopping and genuine chaos develops in the final furlong.
ShamankaSkillman AveVerifiedShe's A Gift
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Clonmacash vs Collective Power early — if Collective Power pushes for the lead from stall position and forces a pace duel, the tempo lifts and the front-runner advantage is immediately compromised.
WATCH
Arctic Steps is the standout hold-up performer on Going form but races from a wide draw off a 24-day break; watch for a tardy start or box position that leaves it with too much to do in a 5f sprint.
WATCH
Spirit Of Eagles, She's A Gift and Skillman Ave are all true hold-up runners squeezed into a midfield map — a wall of traffic in the final furlong is a real risk if three horses simultaneously try to find gaps off slow pace.
NOTE
Nouvel Espoir ran only 5 days ago; monitor early market moves — if connections are bullish despite the quick turnaround, the 12/15 sim-going strike rate may be more significant than the short recovery period suggests.
NOTE
Verified's fades-in-finish flag combined with recent heavy placings (17th, 10th, 12th on Good) means any market support at long odds should be treated sceptically — the form profile does not suit this pace shape.
7:25 — BOYLE Sports Median Auction Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)
7f · Good · MDN · 17 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:00 — Proparamedics And Medicall Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Royal Saxo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Minaun View and Battle Borne led; the map had Royal Saxo in front.
Treasure Rose won at 4.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Royal Saxo
Prominent · 5
Little EmpireTreasure RoseSummer IslandEddie GThurso
Royal Saxo is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine rival to pressure them from the gate, is likely to control this 7f handicap at a measured, sustainable gallop on Good turf. Little Empire, Eddie G, Summer Island, and Treasure Rose will be prominent but none is a confirmed lead-seizer, meaning they will most likely track Royal Saxo rather than force the pace. This creates a single-file, controlled scenario where the front of the race dictates tempo and late-kicking hold-up horses may lack the strong pace injection they need to close effectively. The race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can settle just behind Royal Saxo and accelerate from a position of comfort, rather than true closers who depend on a pressured gallop to generate the gaps they need. Several hold-up types — Imperial Dream, Battle Borne, Blues Emperor, Flaming Rib, and Summer Snow — are true closers, but with Gotta Catch'em All and Minaun View also being natural prominent horses pushed back by a crowded pace map, the field contains more front-end types than can realistically secure those positions; Royal Saxo, Summer Island, Treasure Rose, and Little Empire are most likely to lock out the prominent berths.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled lead, prominent wins
56% probability
If Royal Saxo leads unchallenged at a measured clip and prominent trackers travel comfortably into the final furlong.
If Royal Saxo leads unchallenged at a measured clip and prominent trackers travel comfortably into the final furlong.
Summer IslandTreasure RoseLittle EmpireEddie G
B
Front-runner all the way
19% probability
If Royal Saxo gets a completely uncontested lead, dictates a truly sedate pace, and the trailing pack never organises a collective challenge.
If Royal Saxo gets a completely uncontested lead, dictates a truly sedate pace, and the trailing pack never organises a collective challenge.
Royal SaxoLittle EmpireEddie GThurso
C
Late surge from mid-pack
16% probability
If the pace proves slightly stronger than expected and the genuine mid-pack horses get a true target to aim at in the final 2f.
If the pace proves slightly stronger than expected and the genuine mid-pack horses get a true target to aim at in the final 2f.
GlyndwrFlaming RibSummer SnowTreasure Rose
D
Closers mow them down
9% probability
If the field bunches early, the pace becomes ragged, and a genuine strong finishing run from the rear becomes viable.
If the field bunches early, the pace becomes ragged, and a genuine strong finishing run from the rear becomes viable.
Imperial DreamBlues EmperorBattle BorneGotta Catch'em All
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Royal Saxo sets the tempo alone from the front — if they get a completely uncontested lead, every horse in the field is essentially racing against themselves, and any prominent horse who cannot get close early will be racing for the places.
WATCH
Treasure Rose has an extraordinary record on Good ground (0W6P from 9) and races prominently — watch for her to be thereabouts at the business end without winning; her consistent placing threatens several rivals' exacta chances but her win-conversion is a pattern worth noting.
WATCH
The McGuinness trio (Flaming Rib, Eddie G, Minaun View) share a trainer in strong form (3/28 T14) — stable runners can be managed tactically, and if one of them is being set up to win, the others may soften their challenge; identify which of the three is the stable's first string before betting.
NOTE
Battle Borne ran just one day ago — connections declaring a horse so quickly after a run is either a scheduling overlap or a deliberate fitness move; monitor market drift or support closely before the off, as unexplained quick turnarounds can occasionally signal stable confidence or, conversely, a horse running under a physical cloud.
NOTE
Gotta Catch'em All and Minaun View are natural prominent racers mapped to midfield — if they break sharply and instinctively hunt the early pace, they could create unexpected crowding near Royal Saxo and disrupt the controlled-lead scenario, making the first 2f worth watching closely.
8:30 — Laura Nicholas Memorial Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Dervo Annie likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lady Kelly led; the map had Dervo Annie in front.
Alex Belardo won at 13.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dervo Annie
Prominent · 5
Blue AnthemConcaireUkiyoPete's DreamHot To Foxtrot
Midfield · 6
Toy SoldierStonyfallsZephronRock EtoileMiqdaadMullacash Buzz
Hold Up · 5
Royal County GloryBrainsLady KellyAlex BelardoRoman Harry
Dervo Annie is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with only one horse committed to leading, she is likely to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 7f Good turf trip at Down Royal. With no genuine challenger to pressure her early, the pace figures to be honest but not truly searching — the kind of tempo that keeps those prominent behind her in a workable rhythm rather than stringing the field out. Concaire, Hot To Foxtrot, Blue Anthem, Ukiyo and Pete's Dream are all prominent-style runners who will be pressing into the first two or three positions directly behind her, giving the race a busy early order that could compress the midfield. This shape — a single leader, modest pressure, a cluster of prominent types just off the pace — favours horses who can sit second or third and travel well throughout before asserting in the final two furlongs; pure hold-up horses will need the pace to collapse late, which a lone front-runner rarely delivers. The field holds more hold-up types than the race map can place at the rear: Toy Soldier, Stonyfalls, Zephron, Miqdaad, Rock Etoile and Mullacash Buzz are all true wait-and-pounce horses who are likely to end up further forward than ideal, with Toy Soldier and Mullacash Buzz the two most likely to secure a workable midfield berth rather than their natural rearward role.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Dervo Annie Dictates Unchallenged
48% probability
If Dervo Annie gets a clean lead and the prominent pack settle without fighting for position, she controls tempo throughout.
If Dervo Annie gets a clean lead and the prominent pack settle without fighting for position, she controls tempo throughout.
Dervo AnnieConcaireUkiyoHot To Foxtrot
B
Prominent Trackers Overhaul Her
33% probability
If the prominent cluster travels strongly enough to peg Dervo Annie back inside the final furlong on a searching-enough gallop.
If the prominent cluster travels strongly enough to peg Dervo Annie back inside the final furlong on a searching-enough gallop.
UkiyoBlue AnthemHot To FoxtrotRoyal County Glory
C
Late Movers Land It
12% probability
If Dervo Annie sets a surprisingly strong gallop or the prominent pack push the pace, causing attrition that opens a late run for hold-up horses who managed to find a genuine rearward berth.
If Dervo Annie sets a surprisingly strong gallop or the prominent pack push the pace, causing attrition that opens a late run for hold-up horses who managed to find a genuine rearward berth.
BrainsAlex BelardoRoman HarryLady Kelly
D
Pace Collapses, Midfield Sweeps
7% probability
If Dervo Annie overcooks the early gallop and fades, handing the race to midfield horses who tracked her without expending energy.
If Dervo Annie overcooks the early gallop and fades, handing the race to midfield horses who tracked her without expending energy.
Royal County GloryConcairePete's DreamMullacash Buzz
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dervo Annie breaks cleanly and finds the lead unchallenged — if she gets an uncontested solo front-running berth from the off, the entire field is chasing a horse in her comfort zone and the race shape becomes one-dimensional very quickly.
WATCH
Watch how Toy Soldier, Stonyfalls, Miqdaad and Rock Etoile break from the stalls — if two or more of these genuine hold-up horses find themselves forced into prominent positions in the first furlong, the mid-race order becomes congested and the late pace is likely to be attritional rather than strong.
WATCH
Ukiyo has run seven days ago, has the best sim-going profile in the field and travels prominently — if Sam Coen gets a clean passage from stall draw into second or third, this horse is in the perfect position to attack Dervo Annie in the final quarter-mile.
NOTE
Brains and Alex Belardo are the two hold-up horses with the most credible Good-going records; if Dervo Annie does set a truly searching pace, watch whether either can find a clear run on the wide outside in the straight rather than being trapped in traffic behind the prominent pack.
NOTE
No jockey declared for Royal County Glory, Stonyfalls or Brains at the time of this analysis — any late jockey upgrade, particularly on Royal County Glory (trainer 2/4 T14), would be worth registering before the off.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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