Archive›Down Royal · 4 May 2026

Down Royal

4 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:35 — Ballygowan Maiden Hurdle

2m1½f · Good · MDN · 23 runners

5 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Astelia led, as the map showed.

Berto Ramirez won at 26.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

6 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 5

TheflyingkingAsteliaCertamenHathaways CottageCinnabar Moth

Prominent · 6

EhteyatPersian BlissBrave LadyAngelo DundeeO'ReillyMollys Star

Midfield · 5

Unknown FortuneGlendaars SecretBetty's GlenClone CrossSneddy Eddie

Hold Up · 7

Small FryOrioleLoyal TouchBrohatnaBerto RamirezVictoria KesiaKing Of The Greys

Theflyingking, Astelia, Certamen, Hathaways Cottage and Cinnabar Moth will ensure a relentless gallop from the flag in this 23-runner maiden. The pace will be strong throughout with multiple front-runners committed to making it a test of stamina over the 2m1½f trip. With five confirmed pace-setters and a large field creating traffic problems, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late runs and avoid the early scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

55% probability

If the pace-setters go too fast early and fade in the straight

The strong early gallop will set up perfectly for closers like Small Fry and Loyal Touch who can pick off tired leaders. Traffic won't be an issue for patient riders who time their runs perfectly.

Small FryLoyal TouchBerto RamirezBrohatna

Prominent Tracker Wins

25% probability

If one prominent runner finds the perfect stalking position behind the pace

Ehteyat or Angelo Dundee can track the early leaders without getting involved in the speed battle, then strike when the front-runners weaken. Their class will tell in a competitive finish.

EhteyatAngelo DundeeO'ReillyPersian Bliss

Front-Runner Survives

12% probability

If Theflyingking or Astelia can dictate terms and see off rivals

One pace-setter will get first run on their rivals and prove too strong for the closers who leave it too late. The winner will need stamina reserves to resist late challenges.

TheflyingkingAsteliaCertamenHathaways Cottage

Shock Outsider Emerges

8% probability

If the favourite types underperform and an unconsidered runner strikes

Traffic problems and a messy pace could see an unfancied runner like Clone Cross or Victoria Kesia sneak through when others are stopping. Chaos in a big field creates opportunities.

Clone CrossVictoria KesiaKing Of The GreysMollys Star

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Theflyingking and Astelia could go too fast early and collapse, taking other pace-setters with them

WATCH

Traffic problems in a 23-runner field could trap hold-up horses at crucial moments

NOTE

Small Fry's 514-day layoff is a concern despite his excellent form when last seen

WATCH

Several runners returning from long layoffs including Angelo Dundee and Brohatna may need the run

NOTE

First-time headgear on Loyal Touch and Persian Bliss could spark improved efforts

2:10 — Club Lemon Handicap Hurdle

2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 23 runners

Stay In The Game likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Bella Union won at 9.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 20 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stay In The Game

Prominent · 4

Grey GardensPortettaTruckers CruisingHarley Street

Midfield · 11

Powerful RosieIs She NowTellmemamemaMichael's JetLight Her UpLejolicoeur Du MouCrypto CrashBella UnionMove It On OverChesterbayladTea It Is

Hold Up · 7

Small BucksLakefield FlyerGforcejennySoldier SaintLeitzelJusticialismKilt

Stay In The Game represents the lone confirmed front runner, with Portetta, Truckers Cruising, Harley Street and Grey Gardens likely to sit prominent. With only one natural leader in a 23-runner field, Stay In The Game can dictate terms and establish a manageable gallop without early pressure. The lack of pace pressure early should create a tactical affair that builds steadily, with the large field compacting as they approach the final half-mile. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and have tactical speed, as they can position close enough to strike but avoid the late traffic that will engulf hold-up horses in such a large field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Survives

45% probability

If Stay In The Game gets an easy lead and maintains stamina reserves

The lack of early pace pressure allows him to control sectionals perfectly, while the big field creates a wall of traffic behind that prevents late challengers from getting clear runs. Prominent trackers get the clearest passage but can't reel in the stamina-conserving leader.

Stay In The GamePortettaTruckers CruisingGrey Gardens

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the pace builds steadily and prominent runners get clear runs

The measured gallop suits horses with tactical speed who can position handily, allowing them to quicken when it matters while avoiding the inevitable traffic problems further back. Hold-up horses struggle to weave through the large field.

PortettaTruckers CruisingGrey GardensHarley Street

Hold-Up Horse Threading

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and gaps appear late

A crawling gallop stretches the field and creates space for patient hold-up horses to find racing room, but they need significant luck with gaps in such a big field. The tactical nature still favours those closer to the pace.

Bella UnionJusticialismLakefield FlyerTea It Is

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Stay In The Game fades and multiple horses challenge simultaneously

The leader's stamina gives out from controlling the race alone, creating a messy finish where any horse with a clear passage can capitalise. Speed rather than stamina becomes the decisive factor.

Small BucksGforcejennyKiltIs She Now

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stay In The Game could get an uncontested lead and prove very difficult to peg back with his tactical advantage

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe in the home straight with 23 runners - watch for hold-up horses getting boxed in

WATCH

Several prominent runners including Harley Street and Grey Gardens have fade-in-finish warnings that could derail their chances

NOTE

Portetta and Truckers Cruising are best positioned to track the leader and have the clearest runs when it matters

NOTE

The amateur rider on Stay In The Game may not maximise the horse's tactical advantage despite controlling the pace

2:45 — Pepsi Max Hurdle

3m · Good · DEFAULT · 7 runners

He Can't Dance to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

He Can't Dance and Herja led, as the map showed.

He Can't Dance won at 2.62 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

He Can't Dance

Prominent · 2

Timeless TreatyKevin's Pride

Midfield · 2

Lark WalkLove Like This

Hold Up · 2

HerjaHuntsgrove

He Can't Dance will dictate terms from the front with no obvious pressure, having led successfully last time at this course. Timeless Treaty and Kevin's Pride are likely to track him prominently, but neither looks keen to take him on early in a small field. The lack of genuine pace pressure means He Can't Dance can control splits and kick when ready, while the hold-up horses Herja, Huntsgrove and Love Like This face the classic problem of relying on others to set it up. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace without having to make ground late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

60% probability

If He Can't Dance gets an easy lead and is allowed to dictate fractions

He sets sustainable splits and has plenty left for the finish, while the hold-up horses find themselves with too much to do from the back. The prominent horses get closest but lack the tactical advantage of controlling the race.

He Can't DanceTimeless TreatyKevin's PrideHerja

Prominent Pressure Pays

25% probability

If Timeless Treaty or Kevin's Pride apply early pressure to He Can't Dance

The pace becomes genuine enough to set it up for a strong closer, with the early leaders softening each other up. Herja's class and hold-up style becomes an asset rather than a hindrance.

HerjaTimeless TreatyKevin's PrideHe Can't Dance

Messy Pace Collapse

10% probability

If the pace goes to sleep completely with no one willing to go forward

The race becomes a sprint from the final flight where class and finishing speed matter most. Timeless Treaty's superior rating and recent form give him the edge in a rough finish.

Timeless TreatyKevin's PrideHerjaHe Can't Dance

Long Shot Special

5% probability

If the class horses underperform or make jumping errors at crucial stages

The race opens up for a horse who gets an ideal trip and jumps fluently throughout. Lark Walk's unknown quantity status or Kevin's Pride's consistency could pay dividends.

Kevin's PrideLark WalkHerjaHuntsgrove

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

He Can't Dance jumping early obstacles - any mistake could hand initiative to prominent racers and change entire race dynamic

WATCH

Timeless Treaty's fitness after 28-day break - Elliott runner could be short of peak condition despite strong recent form

NOTE

Lark Walk's early positioning - unknown style profile could disrupt expected pace scenario if goes forward unexpectedly

WATCH

Kevin's Pride's stamina at 3m trip - previous wins came over shorter distances and step up in trip is unproven

NOTE

Weather conditions pre-race - any ground changes could particularly impact the hold-up horses' already slim chances

3:20 — Club Orange Beginners Chase

2m3½f · Good · DEFAULT · 8 runners

Scalpnagoon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Court Canyon led; the map had Scalpnagoon in front.

Court Canyon won at 11.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Scalpnagoon

Prominent · 2

Staffordshire KnotImpero

Midfield · 3

Court CanyonCinammon RollSampoet

Hold Up · 2

TakenasredAstley

Scalpnagoon is the sole identified front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the start, likely setting a manageable tempo without pressure given the field composition. The majority of runners (Staffordshire Knot, Court Canyon, Impero, Cinammon Roll, Sampoet) are prominent racers who will track behind in a compact group, while only Takenasred and Astley are designated hold-up horses. With no genuine pace pressure on Scalpnagoon and most runners happy to sit handy, this sets up a tactical affair that will likely develop into a sprint from the last fence. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers who can position themselves perfectly behind the leader and have first run on the hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

55% probability

If Scalpnagoon sets steady fractions and the prominent pack stay within striking distance

The handy horses get first run from the last and the hold-up pair struggle to make up ground in time. Court Canyon and Impero look best placed to capitalise from their tracking positions.

Court CanyonImperoStaffordshire KnotCinammon Roll

Scalpnagoon Wires Field

25% probability

If the front-runner jumps fluently and maintains his galloping rhythm throughout

His 122 hurdles rating suggests he has the class to make all if allowed an easy lead. The prominent horses may leave their challenges too late against a horse who stays strongly.

ScalpnagoonCourt CanyonImperoStaffordshire Knot

Hold-Up Horse Late Surge

12% probability

If the pace becomes stronger than expected and the prominent runners compromise each other

Takenasred or Astley could benefit from a truly-run race where the handy horses tie up. The race would need genuine pace pressure to set this up properly.

TakenasredAstleyScalpnagoonCourt Canyon

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If Scalpnagoon goes very slowly and creates a messy tactical battle

The race becomes a sprint from three out where any horse can win regardless of style. This would create the most open finish but seems unlikely given the field makeup.

Staffordshire KnotSampoetCinammon RollAstley

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Impero's 321-day absence could leave him badly ring-rusty despite his obvious class advantage over this field

WATCH

Scalpnagoon's jumping accuracy will determine if he can make his front-running tactics pay or become vulnerable late

NOTE

Elliott's three runners (Staffordshire Knot, Cinammon Roll, Scalpnagoon) suggest the stable expects one to be competitive

WATCH

The lack of genuine pace horses behind Scalpnagoon could create a stop-start rhythm that suits nobody

NOTE

Court Canyon's trainer Donoghue has a 17% strike rate recently and this horse fits his typical profile of improver

3:55 — Club Mixers Handicap Chase

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Secrecies Of Stone likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Goody Four Shoes won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Secrecies Of Stone

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Ad CaelumBodhisattvaHardy DiamondAttaboyarchieBarrow Ranger

Hold Up · 3

Tullyveery LadDigbyGoody Four Shoes

Secrecies Of Stone stands alone as the only prominent runner in a field of eight hold-up horses, guaranteeing an uncontested lead and sustainable fractions. With no early pace pressure, Secrecies Of Stone can dictate terms entirely, setting steady splits that could blunt the finishing kicks of the back markers. The lack of pace competition means the winner will likely come from those able to track the leader closely or those with exceptional finishing speed. This race shape heavily favours horses that can race handily behind the leader rather than those relying purely on late surges from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Triumph

45% probability

If Secrecies Of Stone maintains steady fractions without pressure and stays on strongly.

The soft pace allows Secrecies Of Stone to conserve energy early and resist late challenges, while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from too far back. Those tracking closest have the best chance if the leader falters.

Secrecies Of StoneTullyveery LadHardy DiamondAd Caelum

Class Hold-Up Victory

35% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and favours horses with superior ratings and finishing kicks.

Hardy Diamond or Tullyveery Lad use their class advantage to overcome the tactical deficit, with their superior RPR figures telling in the closing stages. The Elliott-trained Hardy Diamond particularly benefits from tracking duties.

Hardy DiamondTullyveery LadDigbyBodhisattva

Fresh Finisher Strikes

15% probability

If returning horses show significant improvement after breaks and benefit from the slow pace.

Secrecies Of Stone (62 days off) or Digby (24 days off) produce career-best efforts when the race sets up perfectly for their styles. The extended breaks prove beneficial rather than detrimental.

DigbySecrecies Of StoneGoody Four ShoesAttaboyarchie

Outsider Surprise Package

5% probability

If the pace collapses completely and a lightly-weighted runner produces an unexpected surge.

Barrow Ranger or Attaboyarchie benefit from their low weights (142lbs and 149lbs respectively) when the race becomes a sprint finish. The significant weight concessions prove decisive in a slowly-run affair.

Barrow RangerAttaboyarchieHardy DiamondAd Caelum

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Secrecies Of Stone could steal this race if allowed completely uncontested fractions with no early pace pressure

WATCH

Hardy Diamond's class and Elliott training could overcome tactical disadvantage if pace becomes too pedestrian

WATCH

Tullyveery Lad has winning form and excellent going record but must overcome poor tactical position from rear

NOTE

Weight concessions to Barrow Ranger (142lbs) and Attaboyarchie (149lbs) become crucial in slowly-run finish

NOTE

Several runners including Digby and Bodhisattva return from breaks with form concerns that need monitoring

4:30 — C&C White Maiden Hunters Chase

2m7f · Good · MDN · 7 runners

Colvin likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Focus Point led; the map had Colvin in front.

Catalani won at 1.53 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Colvin

Prominent · 2

Chateau ElanFocus Point

Midfield · 2

That's It PaddyFortune Lad

Hold Up · 2

Yewtree HillCatalani

Colvin will be the primary pace-setter with his prominent style, likely joined by Focus Point and potentially Chateau Elan in the early stages. With only one confirmed front runner and several hold-up horses, the pace should be sustainable rather than frantic. The two hold-up runners Catalani and Yewtree Hill will track the field before making late moves. This setup creates a tactical race where prominent runners who can stay close to the pace will have the advantage over pure hold-up horses who may find insufficient early speed to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Colvin Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Colvin gets an uncontested lead and maintains a steady gallop

The front runner dictates terms and has enough left to resist challenges, while prominent runners Focus Point and Chateau Elan benefit from the honest pace. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the good going.

ColvinFocus PointChateau ElanFortune Lad

Prominent Battle Develops

30% probability

If Focus Point and Chateau Elan press Colvin early creating stronger pace

The increased tempo suits the hold-up runners who get more pace to aim at in the closing stages. Catalani and Yewtree Hill can time their challenges better with more to close into.

CatalaniYewtree HillFocus PointThat's It Paddy

Late Surge Prevails

15% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and bunches the field for a sprint finish

The hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with a soft pace followed by a cavalry charge. Catalani's better recent form and Yewtree Hill's versatility become crucial factors.

Yewtree HillCatalaniFortune LadFocus Point

Surprise Winner Emerges

10% probability

If the likely pace-setters falter or make jumping errors

The lightly raced Fortune Lad or That's It Paddy capitalize on a more open race where experience and class tell less. Fresh legs and unknown improvement could trump proven form.

Fortune LadThat's It PaddyYewtree HillColvin

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Chateau Elan's massive 686-day layoff makes him almost impossible to assess for current ability and fitness

WATCH

Fortune Lad and That's It Paddy are lightly raced unknowns who could improve significantly or disappoint

NOTE

Focus Point's prominent style and recent win make him the likely main threat to pace-setter Colvin

NOTE

Catalani and Yewtree Hill need sufficient pace to close into given their hold-up running styles

WATCH

Colvin wears headgear for first time which could either improve him dramatically or unsettle his jumping

5:05 — Energise (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race

2m1½f · Good · DEFAULT · 13 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 4 May 2026.

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