1:25 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m3f · Good To Soft · MDN · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:00 — Randox Handicap Hurdle
2m2f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Goodie Girl likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Black Soul and Rogue Sea led; the map had Goodie Girl in front.
Cozone won at 4.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Goodie Girl
Prominent · 3
ArclandCooladdiWarm In Gorey
Midfield · 6
Solar GenerationLiceoKing Of The GreysEmesterayeCozoneRogue Sea
Hold Up · 4
Typical ThomasBruantBlack SoulGarnetot
Goodie Girl is the lone confirmed front runner and will dictate proceedings from the flag, likely getting an uncontested lead through the early stages. With most runners adopting hold-up tactics (Typical Thomas, Black Soul, Garnetot, King Of The Greys, Liceo, Cozone, Emesteraye, Rogue Sea), the pace will be measured rather than fierce. The prominent runners Arcland, Cooladdi and Warm In Gorey will track behind Goodie Girl but won't apply serious early pressure. This setup strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions without expending energy, while the large contingent of hold-up horses will face a significant disadvantage trying to make up ground from the back of the field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Goodie Girl Controls All
45% probability
If Goodie Girl gets an easy lead and dictates the fractions uncontested
She can kick clear turning for home before the hold-up brigade gets organised, making full use of her class and tactical advantage. The measured early pace leaves her with plenty in reserve for a sustained finish.
Goodie GirlArclandWarm In GoreyCooladdi
B
Prominent Pressure Pays
30% probability
If Arcland or Warm In Gorey apply genuine pressure to Goodie Girl from halfway
The increased tempo will stretch the field and expose Goodie Girl's long absence, allowing the prominent trackers to strike in the final furlong. Hold-up horses still struggle with too much ground to make up.
ArclandWarm In GoreyGoodie GirlCooladdi
C
Hold-Up Surge Succeeds
15% probability
If the early pace completely collapses and becomes crawling
The race becomes a sprint finish where stamina matters less and the sheer volume of hold-up horses creates a cavalry charge. Fresh horses like Typical Thomas and Cozone can exploit their recent runs.
Typical ThomasCozoneEmesterayeLiceo
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If multiple prominent horses decide to take on Goodie Girl early
A genuine speed duel develops that sets up perfectly for closers, but requires multiple pace angles to materialise simultaneously. Unlikely given the field composition but would transform the race completely.
Black SoulGarnetotRogue SeaKing Of The Greys
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Goodie Girl must handle the ground after 196-day absence, any early struggling kills the front-running plan
WATCH
Watch for Arcland to track Goodie Girl closely early - he has the class to apply pressure when it matters
WATCH
Black Soul and King Of The Greys both fade in finishes, avoid if they're prominent late in betting
NOTE
Warm In Gorey's consistency suggests he'll run his race but needs others to set it up from prominent position
NOTE
Monitor early pace through first half-mile - if genuinely slow it opens door for hold-up horses like Typical Thomas
2:35 — Denvir's Of Downpatrick (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (Div I)
2m6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Western Model likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Nakassama won at 2.10 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Western Model
Prominent · 4
Forever And A DaySteps In The SandMount ShenshanHitthehayson
San FrancoNakassamaWatty ShowHunting GoldAndyourbirdcansing
Western Model will take this race on from the front with only Forever And A Day, Mount Shenshan and Hitthehayson likely to race handy in the early stages. This creates an uncontested lead scenario where Western Model can dictate fractions over the 2m6f trip without serious early pressure. The bulk of this large field - including all the higher-rated horses Nakassama and San Franco - are hold-up performers who will need the pace to develop. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers and early pace-setters who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will unfold in the closing stages with so many hold-up horses fighting for room.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Running
45% probability
If Western Model gets an easy lead and dictates moderate fractions
Western Model builds an unassailable advantage turning for home as the hold-up brigade get caught in traffic behind. The prominent racers Forever And A Day and Mount Shenshan pick up the pieces while the class horses struggle for a clear run.
Western ModelForever And A DayMount ShenshanHitthehayson
B
Hold Up Class Prevails
30% probability
If the pace collapses completely and the field comes together late
Nakassama and San Franco utilize their superior ratings as gaps appear in the final furlong. Their class tells despite the tactical disadvantage of racing from behind in this large field.
NakassamaSan FrancoWestern ModelForever And A Day
C
Pace Collapse Scramble
15% probability
If Western Model goes too slow early and gets swamped by the field
The race becomes a cavalry charge from the final hurdle with multiple horses in contention. Steps In The Sand's return from a long layoff could catch rivals napping if the pace sets up perfectly.
Steps In The SandMount ShenshanNakassamaHitthehayson
D
Surprise Package Emerges
10% probability
If the favorite encounters trouble and an outsider gets the perfect trip
One of the lower-weighted hold-up horses like Andyourbirdcansing or Watty Show benefits from a strong pace and finds gaps when others cannot. Their light weights become decisive in a messy finish.
AndyourbirdcansingWatty ShowGo AvelHunting Gold
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Western Model could steal this if allowed uncontested lead as no other genuine pace horses in field
WATCH
Nakassama and San Franco may struggle for clear runs despite superior ratings in this crowded field
WATCH
Steps In The Sand returning after 292 days could be ring-rusty despite previous course success
NOTE
Multiple horses with fade-in-finish warnings could compound traffic problems in home straight
NOTE
Several trainers including McLoughlin having poor recent spells which impacts confidence levels
3:10 — Denvir's Of Downpatrick (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
2m6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Lady Fromentro likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lady Fromentro led, as the map showed.
Joya Del Mar won at 6.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
7 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lady Fromentro
Prominent · 5
Nothing HecticJoya Del MarJoshua ChamberlainGeorgia CelenaMoonshine Girl
Midfield · 6
True HarmonyVolez VousKofinoLittle Boy SivolaRoad To The SeaGeorge's Angel
Hold Up · 5
Gangster GrannyAntoine De ParisAnother GlendaarsHey BabbsSacramental
Lady Fromentro will lead from the start with Nothing Hectic, Joya Del Mar, and Moonshine Girl tracking prominently in the opening stages. This modest pace will allow the large field of hold-up horses to settle and travel comfortably through the early phases. The race will develop into a sprint from the final hurdle as the prominent runners try to kick clear while the hold-up brigade mount their challenges. This controlled tempo and tactical finish strongly favours prominent runners who can position handy and have the class to quicken when it matters.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
55% probability
If the pace stays controlled and the prominent horses maintain their positions turning for home
The handy runners will have first run on the field and the superior horses among them can exploit their positional advantage. The hold-up horses will have too much ground to make up in the closing stages.
Lady FromentroNothing HecticJoya Del MarJoshua Chamberlain
B
Late Surge Succeeds
25% probability
If the prominent group go too hard from the last hurdle and tie up
The hold-up horses with proven stamina will benefit from the strong pace and come through to collar the leaders in the final 100 yards. This scenario rewards horses who stay the trip well.
Gangster GrannyHey BabbsAnother GlendaarsAntoine De Paris
C
Outsider Springs Surprise
12% probability
If the favourites fail to fire and the race falls apart tactically
Georgia Celena or Moonshine Girl could exploit their light weights and proven form on similar ground to outrun their odds. The race becomes more open with the established horses underperforming.
If Lady Fromentro sets a very slow pace and kicks too late
The entire field will be bunched turning for home creating a cavalry charge finish where any horse could win. This chaos scenario makes the result almost impossible to predict with certainty.
Antoine De ParisHey BabbsLittle Boy SivolaSacramental
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lady Fromentro could set too slow a pace early and get swamped by the field late
WATCH
Nothing Hectic may get caught wide if Mullins tries to track the leaders throughout
NOTE
Gangster Granny needs to jump cleanly to give herself any chance from hold-up position
WATCH
Hey Babbs returning from 56-day break could be vulnerable fitness-wise late in the race
NOTE
Georgia Celena's 225-day absence makes her fitness levels highly questionable
3:45 — Join Racing TV Now With A Free Trial Handicap Chase
2m3½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Leave In Secret likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Finnians Row led; the map had Leave In Secret in front.
Finnians Row won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Leave In Secret
Prominent · 5
Andys FlameListentillitellyeaFreddie RobdalDorking CockMagic Day
Midfield · 5
Finnians RowDriveonwillParkgarveDoyen MagicKing's Son
Hold Up · 3
RingdufferinTruckers CruisingLake Chad
Leave In Secret will lead from flag-fall with minimal pressure in the early stages, creating a controlled gallop over the opening circuit. The absence of other confirmed front-runners means Leave In Secret can dictate terms without being hassled, likely producing a sustainable pace that builds gradually. With most runners adopting prominent or hold-up tactics, the race will develop into a sprint finish from the home turn as the field bunches up behind the lone leader. This measured tempo strongly favours hold-up horses and late-finishing types who can unleash a decisive kick in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace Suits Closers
60% probability
If Leave In Secret maintains an uncontested lead setting moderate fractions
The sustainable gallop allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and time their challenge perfectly, with the pace quickening dramatically only in the final half-mile. Ringdufferin and Truckers Cruising can exploit their preferred racing pattern.
RingdufferinLake ChadTruckers CruisingMagic Day
B
Prominent Horses Capitalize
25% probability
If the moderate pace becomes too slow and front-runners maintain control
The lack of early pressure allows Leave In Secret and other prominent types to control the race throughout, making it difficult for closers to peg back the advantage. Freddie Robdal and Andys Flame can track the leader and kick clear.
Freddie RobdalAndys FlameLeave In SecretListentillitellyea
C
Finnians Row Spring Surprise
10% probability
If the lightweight bottom-weight gets a dream run through on the rail
McKenna's 3lb claim becomes crucial as Finnians Row travels smoothly in behind before producing a withering late surge that catches the higher-rated horses napping. The 157lbs burden allows sustained acceleration.
Finnians RowDriveonwillDoyen MagicParkgarve
D
Early Leader Wires Field
5% probability
If Leave In Secret's long absence proves no hindrance and maintains strong gallop
The 181-day layoff hasn't dulled Leave In Secret's speed as he stretches the field from halfway and proves too strong in the closing stages. The lack of early pressure preserves stamina for a powerful finish.
Leave In SecretDorking CockMagic DayFreddie Robdal
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Leave In Secret may struggle to see out the trip if the 181-day layoff has left him short of peak fitness
WATCH
Ringdufferin and Lake Chad need the pace to develop as expected or their hold-up tactics become compromised
NOTE
Finnians Row's 3lb claiming allowance could prove decisive if McKenna can secure a clean passage through the field
WATCH
Multiple prominent runners may create more pace pressure than anticipated if several challenge Leave In Secret early
NOTE
De Bromhead's double-handed entry with Freddie Robdal and Magic Day suggests stable confidence in race conditions
4:20 — C. Russell Auto Sales Beginners Chase
2m7½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Saunton Surf likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Saunton Surf and Anodandawink led, as the map showed.
Saunton Surf won at 2.38 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Saunton Surf
Prominent · 3
SchiehallionAnodandawinkTropical Image
Midfield · 2
Welcome BackHuntsgrove
Hold Up · 3
CoppolaCoolboy ChristyKalsman
Saunton Surf will lead this from the start with no other confirmed front runners to challenge his position early. The prominent runners Anodandawink, Schiehallion and Tropical Image will settle just behind, but none are likely to pressure the leader through the early stages. With multiple hold-up horses including Coolboy Christy, Coppola, Huntsgrove and Kalsman waiting to pounce, this sets up a tactical affair where the pace could become pedestrian mid-race before accelerating late. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and strong finishers who can benefit from the likely slow early gallop and kick clear when it matters.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
65% probability
If Saunton Surf sets a steady pace without early pressure from the prominent horses
The tempo becomes pedestrian allowing the back markers to close easily, then the race explodes late when Coolboy Christy, Coppola and Kalsman unleash finishing kicks. The patient tactics and class of the hold-up brigade proves decisive in a sprint finish.
Coolboy ChristyCoppolaKalsmanHuntsgrove
B
Front end collapse
20% probability
If Saunton Surf goes too fast early or the prominent horses apply more pressure than expected
The early pace becomes unsustainable causing the leaders to weaken dramatically in the final furlong. This allows the hold-up horses to sweep past a tiring field with minimal resistance.
KalsmanHuntsgroveCoolboy ChristyWelcome Back
C
Wire-to-wire shock
10% probability
If Saunton Surf is left completely alone in front and the field becomes too tactical behind
The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the field marks each other up, with none of the hold-up horses able to reel him in despite the slow pace. His recent Downpatrick form suggests he handles the track well.
If the prominent horses position perfectly and avoid the tactical battle behind
Anodandawink or Schiehallion track the leader closely enough to strike when the pace lifts but avoid getting caught in traffic when the hold-up horses make their moves. Their forward position proves crucial when the race unfolds slowly.
Shantou Show will dictate terms from the front with minimal early pressure, creating a controlled gallop that suits his veteran stamina. The prominent runners Miss Lia, Sampoet, U Asking Me, Toor Moon and Fr Gilligansvoyge will track within striking distance but none are aggressive pace-forcers. With 10 of 13 runners adopting hold-up tactics, the bulk of the field will be bunched behind the moderate early pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent/front-running horses who can secure good positions early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the large hold-up contingent in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running Wins
55% probability
If Shantou Show maintains his uncontested lead and the pace stays moderate throughout
The veteran can use his stamina advantage over the extended trip while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from poor positions. His prominent style perfectly suits a race where early positioning proves crucial.
Shantou ShowMiss LiaSampoetU Asking Me
B
Late Hold-Up Surge
25% probability
If the pace quickens significantly from the home turn and gaps appear for the back markers
The class horses The Rebel County and Big Island can use their higher ratings to power through late. Their stamina will tell over this demanding distance if they find racing room.
The Rebel CountyBig IslandThehairyfellaFerdia
C
Mid-Division Breakthrough
12% probability
If the front runners fade and the prominent trackers inherit the lead entering the straight
Horses like Sampoet and U Asking Me can capitalize on ideal stalking positions behind a moderate pace. They avoid both the early exertion and the traffic problems plaguing others.
SampoetMiss LiaU Asking MeFr Gilligansvoyge
D
Surprise Upset
8% probability
If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish from the final fence
A lightly-weighted outsider like Fr Gilligansvoyge or Toor Moon can benefit from their reduced burden in a tactical affair. The compressed finish negates class differentials.
Shantou Show must be monitored early - if he gets an uncontested lead he becomes extremely dangerous given the race shape
WATCH
The Rebel County and Big Island need clear runs in the straight as their class won't matter if trapped behind the wall of hold-up horses
NOTE
Miss Lia's early positioning will be crucial - she needs to secure a prominent spot to avoid the traffic problems
WATCH
Sampoet's quick 4-day turnaround could indicate trainer confidence or desperation - his early pace judgment is key
NOTE
The pace through the middle stages will determine everything - if it stays steady the front runners are almost unbeatable
5:30 — Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP INH Flat Race
2m3f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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