2:07 — Tote Every Day's A Money Back Day Maiden Hurdle
2m6f · Soft · MDN · 15 runners
Lead contested: He Can't Dance v PapageiFREEHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
He Can't DancePapagei
Prominent · 1
Love Safari
Midfield · 8
The Poet's WayRobertjamesClone CrossTrue HarmonyWestin PimpernelLilac LadyLeo MessyMicroscope
Hold Up · 4
SeabloomCarninyKashcheiGunnery Sergeant
He Can't Dance and Papagei will contest the early lead, with Love Safari likely tracking prominently behind them. This creates an honest gallop throughout the 2m6f trip, but with only two confirmed front-runners the pace shouldn't be suicidal, allowing the large contingent of hold-up horses to get competitive from the back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front runners collapse late
35% probability
If He Can't Dance and Papagei burn each other out in a sustained battle
The pace setters weaken turning for home, opening the door for the hold-up brigade. Carniny or Kashchei can time their challenges perfectly from off the pace.
CarninyKashcheiGunnery SergeantLilac Lady
B
Prominent tracker prevails
30% probability
If Love Safari gets the perfect trip tracking the leaders without getting involved early
Love Safari can use her prominent style to strike when the front pair weaken, having saved energy in the early stages. Her decent rating of OR120 tells against weaker opposition.
Love SafariHe Can't DanceCarninyKashchei
C
Front runner stays tough
25% probability
If He Can't Dance or Papagei gets an uncontested lead or soft fractions early
The leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back up the hill, with He Can't Dance's superior rating and proven soft ground form giving him the edge. The hold-up horses leave it too late.
He Can't DancePapageiLove SafariCarniny
D
Maiden surprise package
10% probability
If one of the lightly-raced newcomers has been working better than their profile suggests
Clone Cross, Robertjames or The Poet's Way could have significantly more ability than their profiles indicate. Their unknown quantities status makes them dangerous in a competitive maiden.
Clone CrossRobertjamesThe Poet's WayLove Safari
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
He Can't Dance could get an easy lead if Papagei doesn't go with him early, making him very hard to catch
WATCH
Love Safari's ability to get the right position tracking the leaders will be crucial to her chances
WATCH
The lightly-raced trio of Clone Cross, Robertjames and The Poet's Way could show significant improvement
NOTE
Carniny and Kashchei need the front runners to set a strong pace to bring their finishing kicks into play
NOTE
Seabloom, Leo Messy and True Harmony have all shown tendencies to fade which makes them risky propositions
2:42 — Hood McGowan Kirk Handicap Hurdle
2m6f · Soft · HCAP · 18 runners
Lead contested: Robindevidastar v Toor MoonHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
RobindevidastarToor Moon
Prominent · 3
Jimli's CaveMarine RangerMister Persistence
Midfield · 8
Deanery CharlieBruno From MarsCoppolaCan't Catch MollyShanroe NancyYoung And FoolishThe Son Of BregaAppian Way
Hold Up · 5
Saunton SurfLet's Go MansOcean MurphyKalsmanCozone
Robindevidastar and Toor Moon will ensure a genuine gallop from the start, with both confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the early lead. This should create an honest pace throughout, suiting the army of hold-up horses who can time their challenges late. The soft ground and extended trip favor patient tactics, making this a proper test of stamina where positioning will be crucial.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Finish
35% probability
If the two leaders go too fast early and weaken
The front pair will have burned each other out by halfway, leaving the race to the patient hold-up horses with the strongest finishing kicks. Ocean Murphy or Saunton Surf can capitalize with their superior class ratings.
Ocean MurphySaunton SurfKalsmanLet's Go Mans
B
Sustained Gallop Victory
25% probability
If Robindevidastar or Toor Moon get tactical respite
One leader will drop back slightly after the initial battle, then sustain their effort better than expected to hold off the late challenge. The honest pace will have stretched the field enough to prevent a cavalry charge finish.
RobindevidastarToor MoonMarine RangerJimli's Cave
C
Class Tells Late
30% probability
If the pace is even but not excessive
The gallop will be solid but not suicidal, allowing the highest-rated hold-up horses to mount their challenges with enough gas in the tank. Ocean Murphy, Kalsman and Let's Go Mans have the class edge when the whips are cracking.
Let's Go MansKalsmanOcean MurphyCozone
D
Front Runner Steals It
10% probability
If one leader gets an easy time in front
Either Robindevidastar or Toor Moon will get loose without serious pressure, building an unassailable lead while the hold-up brigade leaves it too late. The soft ground will make ground hard to make up from the back.
Toor MoonRobindevidastarMarine RangerJimli's Cave
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Let's Go Mans has won impressively on heavy going but all his best form is on good ground.
WATCH
The massive field of 18 runners could cause traffic problems for the hold-up horses at crucial moments.
WATCH
Kalsman's recent good form is entirely on good ground which may not translate to these conditions.
NOTE
Marine Ranger and Jimli's Cave are the only prominent runners who might resist the front pair early.
NOTE
Ocean Murphy has very limited soft ground experience for such a well-regarded stayer.
3:17 — Billie And Bertie FitzGerald Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m2f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Your Call to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Your Call
Prominent · 3
Brave SoldierDunany PointBlue Reed
Midfield · 3
Coolboy ChristyMetamorpheusLips Freedom
Hold Up · 3
Splashing OutGamiginDairy Force
Your Call will set a comfortable lead with only Blue Reed and Brave Soldier likely to track him early, creating a sustainable gallop rather than breakneck speed. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Dairy Force, Metamorpheus, Splashing Out, Gamigin, Lips Freedom, Coolboy Christy) will create significant traffic problems turning for home, favoring those who can get first run from midfield positions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Your Call Controls Throughout
35% probability
If Your Call maintains his lead without serious pressure until the straight
The front-runner dictates fractions and has enough left to resist late challengers on ground that suits. Hold-up horses struggle to organize their runs in time with the pace being genuine but not destructive.
Your CallBrave SoldierBlue ReedDunany Point
B
Traffic Chaos Benefits Leaders
30% probability
If the large pack of hold-up horses get bunched turning in with limited room
Splashing Out and Dairy Force get shuffled back while prominent runners Blue Reed and Dunany Point find clearer passages. Your Call may tire but those tracking him inherit the race.
Blue ReedDunany PointYour CallGamigin
C
Late Surge From Best Horse
25% probability
If Splashing Out gets a clear run despite the traffic and the pace has been testing enough
The class horse unleashes his superior rating with a devastating late run that mows down the leaders. Other hold-up horses also benefit from the strong pace but lack his finishing kick.
Splashing OutDairy ForceCoolboy ChristyGamigin
D
Midfield Positioning Perfect
10% probability
If Gamigin or Coolboy Christy avoid the worst traffic by tracking closer than usual
One of the hold-up specialists gets the perfect trip by being patient but not too far back. They thread through gaps as leaders tire and other closers remain trapped.
GamiginCoolboy ChristyMetamorpheusDairy Force
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Your Call must prove his stamina when challenged - if he stops quickly the race opens up dramatically
WATCH
Splashing Out needs the field to come back to him late - watch for any early positioning that suggests connections are worried about traffic
NOTE
Blue Reed and Brave Soldier's early positioning will indicate whether Your Call faces genuine pace pressure or gets an easy lead
WATCH
The large group of hold-up horses will create a wall of horses turning in - first one to get daylight could steal significant advantage
NOTE
Dairy Force showed good form last time on soft ground - any market confidence suggests connections expect cleaner passage than obvious
3:52 — Kevin Ross Bloodstock 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle
2m6f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners
Bergamasquo to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bergamasquo
Prominent · 4
ThemaninthebootsCouldntmakeitupMiss LiaKanog Bay
Midfield · 3
Midleton RareJohn StoreyGangster Granny
Hold Up · 3
Lough NigaraTake StockBetter Times
Bergamasquo will dominate early pacing with no pressure from the prominent runners Miss Lia, Themanintheboots, Kanog Bay and Couldntmakeitup who prefer to sit closer rather than lead. This creates a sustainable tempo that plays into the hands of the hold-up brigade including class act Lough Nigara, Better Times, Take Stock and John Storey who can use their finishing kicks over this stamina-testing trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Suits Closers
45% probability
If Bergamasquo sets uncontested fractions and the prominent runners remain patient
The hold-up horses get perfect conditions to unleash finishing efforts in the straight. Lough Nigara's class and Better Times' stamina prove decisive over the extended trip.
Lough NigaraBetter TimesTake StockJohn Storey
B
Prominent Pressure Creates Gaps
30% probability
If Miss Lia or Themanintheboots apply early pressure to Bergamasquo creating a stronger gallop
The increased tempo stretches the field and creates gaps for tactical speed. Themanintheboots and Miss Lia capitalize on their prominent positions while closers struggle to close the deficit.
ThemanintheboatsMiss LiaCouldntmakeitupTake Stock
C
Bergamasquo Wire-to-Wire
15% probability
If the leader maintains his advantage turning in and the field fails to organize a serious challenge
Bergamasquo's uncontested lead becomes insurmountable as closers leave their runs too late over the extended distance. The patient tactics backfire against a horse who stays strongly.
BergamasquoThemaninthebootsMiss LiaLough Nigara
D
Kanog Bay Fade Compromises Field
10% probability
If Kanog Bay's known finishing fade blocks the path of hold-up horses in the straight
Traffic problems compromise the stronger finishers allowing a prominent runner to steal through. Couldntmakeitup benefits from a cleaner passage while others get shuffled back.
CouldntmakeitupMiss LiaMidleton RareJohn Storey
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kanog Bay's known fade could block the inside rail for hold-up horses Lough Nigara and Better Times in the straight
WATCH
Bergamasquo's uncontested lead advantage depends entirely on the prominent runners remaining patient early
WATCH
Better Times shows poor recent form on similar going despite his style suiting the likely race shape
NOTE
Miss Lia's prominent style and consistent going record makes her a tactical threat if pace becomes strong
NOTE
John Storey's hold-up style fits perfectly but his minimal recent placings suggest he may lack the class needed
4:27 — Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase
3m4½f · Soft · HCAP · 18 runners
Uncle Pat to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Uncle Pat
Prominent · 7
Brideswell LadShannon RoyaleFishery LaneSlanagaibhgoleirFlash De TouzaineMoney HeistSt Denis's Well
Midfield · 5
I A ConnectThe Gradual SlopeSolly AttwellBeggars RockBodhisattva
Hold Up · 5
Born BraverRexemOntheropesBrandtDorans Law
Uncle Pat will lead from the start with no other confirmed front-runners in the field, allowing him to dictate a comfortable tempo through the early stages. The prominent brigade of Slanagaibhgoleir, Fishery Lane, Brideswell Lad, Money Heist, and Shannon Royale will track behind in second-flight positions, while the large hold-up contingent including Rexem, Born Braver, and Dorans Law will need the pace to collapse late. This setup creates a sustainable gallop that may not provide enough early pressure to soften up the leaders for the back-markers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncle Pat Controls Throughout
35% probability
If Uncle Pat gets his own way in front and maintains stamina reserves
He dictates fractions unchallenged and kicks clear approaching the final fence with enough left to resist late challenges. The prominent runners struggle to peg him back having tracked a steady tempo throughout.
Uncle PatFishery LaneSlanagaibhgoleirSt Denis's Well
B
Prominent Battle Develops
30% probability
If the second-flight group applies pressure from halfway and engages Uncle Pat
Slanagaibhgoleir, Money Heist, and Brideswell Lad close on the leader turning for home, creating a cavalry charge to the line. The increased tempo leaves the hold-up horses with too much ground to make up.
If the pace becomes truly run and the leaders weaken significantly in the final half-mile
Rexem and Born Braver find clear runs through beaten horses and power home with their superior finishing kicks. The front division pays the price for early exertions over this marathon trip.
RexemBorn BraverOntheropesSolly Attwell
D
Chaos and Outsider Strike
10% probability
If multiple fallers or interference disrupts the main contenders
The race develops into a war of attrition with several market leaders taken out of contention. One of the outsiders like Beggars Rock or I A Connect capitalizes on the chaos to claim victory at big odds.
Beggars RockI A ConnectThe Gradual SlopeBrandt
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Uncle Pat must be watched for signs of distress if pressured early as his recent form shows vulnerability under pressure
WATCH
Born Braver and Rexem need close monitoring for their positions turning in as both require clear runs to be effective
WATCH
Multiple prominent runners including Money Heist and Shannon Royale could create crowding issues at key jumping obstacles
NOTE
Brideswell Lad's jumping needs attention as any mistakes will compromise his chances from prominent position
NOTE
The large field size increases faller risk which could significantly alter the complexion of the race
5:00 — Caherty Stables Beginners Chase
2m3½f · Soft · DEFAULT · 10 runners
Icare d'Aubrelle to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Icare d'Aubrelle
Prominent · 2
Dee's LadyFind A Fortune
Midfield · 4
Great UniverseBilly Lee SwaggerTorquay RoadStrutter
Hold Up · 3
Mercury MissionLittlefootKarafon
Icare d'Aubrelle will lead uncontested with only Dee's Lady and Find A Fortune showing prominent tendencies, creating a sustainable tempo early. The majority hold-up runners (Mercury Mission, Karafon, Littlefoot, Great Universe, Strutter, Billy Lee Swagger, Torquay Road) will cluster mid-pack, setting up a cavalry charge finish where positioning and jumping fluency become critical.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Prevails
25% probability
If Icare d'Aubrelle maintains jumping fluency and the pace stays honest
The leader gets an easy time of it through the early stages before the hold-up brigade mount their challenge. Icare d'Aubrelle's soft ground form and front-running style proves decisive when the chasers struggle to make up ground.
Icare d'AubrelleDee's LadyFind A FortuneStrutter
B
Late Surge Succeeds
35% probability
If the pace becomes truly run and multiple hold-up horses finish strongly
Mercury Mission and Karafon find their best rhythm late, benefiting from a solid pace set by Icare d'Aubrelle. The quality hold-up horses with OR 120 ratings surge past a tiring leader in the final furlong.
Mercury MissionKarafonGreat UniverseLittlefoot
C
Prominent Pair Strike
25% probability
If Dee's Lady and Find A Fortune track the leader closely and kick before the hold-up horses
The two prominent runners shadow Icare d'Aubrelle before taking over approaching the last, with their forward positions proving crucial. They hold off the late challengers who leave their runs too late from the back.
Dee's LadyFind A FortuneIcare d'AubrelleTorquay Road
D
Chaos and Surprise
15% probability
If jumping errors or falls disrupt the favorites and change the complexion
Multiple market leaders make crucial mistakes or fall, leaving the race open for an outsider to capitalize. Strutter or Billy Lee Swagger benefit from staying out of trouble while higher-rated rivals hit problems.
StrutterBilly Lee SwaggerTorquay RoadGreat Universe
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Mercury Mission's jumping early - has been running on faster ground recently and may struggle with soft conditions affecting rhythm
WATCH
Monitor Icare d'Aubrelle's stamina reserves - front-running style on testing ground over this trip could see energy drain late
NOTE
Keep eye on Dee's Lady's position tracking the leader - her prominent style and perfect heavy ground record make her dangerous
WATCH
Watch for Billy Lee Swagger and Great Universe struggling with the soft conditions given their recent poor efforts on testing ground
NOTE
Observe how quickly the hold-up horses can organize their challenges - bunching could cause traffic problems in the straight
5:30 — Boardsmill Sires Maiden Hunters Chase
2m7½f · Soft · MDN · 9 runners
Mister Frostie to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mister Frostie
Prominent · 2
Magic SadlerCause For Comment
Midfield · 3
West Of IdahoLawful RulerSledgehammer
Hold Up · 3
Cebu CityYewtree HillTumuch
Mister Frostie will set the pace uncontested with the prominent runners Magic Sadler and Cause For Comment tracking behind rather than pressuring early. This creates a scenario where the pace-setter can dictate terms through the early stages, potentially leaving the five hold-up horses with too much ground to make up on testing soft ground that often favors those racing closer to the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mister Frostie Controls
30% probability
If Mister Frostie gets an easy lead and stays galloping
The front-runner uses his tactical advantage to build a decisive advantage turning in. The hold-up horses struggle to make inroads on the testing surface.
Mister FrostieMagic SadlerCause For CommentWest Of Idaho
B
Prominent Pair Strike
35% probability
If Magic Sadler and Cause For Comment close on the leader at the last
Both prominent runners have superior going form and can outstay Mister Frostie in the final furlong. Magic Sadler's strong soft ground record (0-3-10) gives him the edge.
Magic SadlerCause For CommentMister FrostieWest Of Idaho
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
25% probability
If the early pace is steady enough for closers to get competitive
One of the higher-rated hold-up horses finds the pace manageable and delivers a late challenge. Cebu City or West Of Idaho most likely to have the class to make ground.
West Of IdahoCebu CityMagic SadlerCause For Comment
D
Maiden Chaos Unfolds
10% probability
If jumping errors or falls significantly alter the complexion
Multiple horses make mistakes at key fences creating opportunities for unconsidered runners. The pace collapses and form goes out the window.
SledgehammerYewtree HillTumuchLawful Ruler
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mister Frostie could get too easy a lead if Magic Sadler and Cause For Comment don't press early enough
WATCH
West Of Idaho and Lawful Ruler are unknown quantities on soft ground despite holding joint-top ratings
NOTE
Magic Sadler has placed 3 times from 10 runs on soft/heavy ground showing consistent place prospects
WATCH
The five hold-up horses could all struggle if the pace doesn't develop strongly enough
NOTE
Cause For Comment drops back in trip from recent 24f runs which could sharpen his finishing kick
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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