Euro Agent and Orderly Conduct led; the map had Cap Bernat in front.
Euro Agent won at 1.57 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Cap Bernat
Prominent · 2
Euro AgentPoets Rambler
Midfield · 2
Mystic RoseMarine Tycoon
Hold Up · 4
Thats It RubySanta PaulaOrderly ConductLone Ash Lad
Cap Bernat led in its last run and is the only horse with recent evidence of going forward; it will likely set the pace from the off, but given its age (13) and the modest level of this maiden hurdle, the tempo may not be especially strong. Euro Agent, a five-year-old in form with multiple placed finishes at this trip on good ground, will race prominently and could press if Cap Bernat falters, while the remainder are hold-up types with no recent evidence of seeking the lead. Front-runners hold a strong record over this trip and going, and an uncontested pace favours those who can track and pick off the leader late rather than those forced to make their own running. The race should be decided by a horse that can sit handy and strike in the run-in — a profile that suits Euro Agent and the better hold-up horses more than it suits a front-runner who may have done its work too early.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Euro Agent picks up the pieces
Scenario
If Cap Bernat's uncontested lead allows Euro Agent to settle in behind and strike in the closing stages
Euro Agent has won three of eight runs on good ground and placed in two others; it races prominently and will have a perfect perch three lengths behind Cap Bernat. The leader will tire over the final hurdles in a race where the pace has not been furiously contested, and Euro Agent's superior recent form and course experience will tell in the run-in.
Euro AgentCap BernatSanta Paula
B
Cap Bernat holds on
Scenario
If the uncontested pace suits the leader and no one lands a decisive blow in the straight
Cap Bernat led last time out and will set off in front from the off; at this modest level a horse in front with a clear round over the last two hurdles can hold on even at 13 years old. The field lacks a strong challenger, and if the jumps go smoothly the leader may simply refuse to be caught.
Cap BernatEuro AgentOrderly Conduct
C
Ambush from hold-up
Scenario
If Orderly Conduct or Santa Paula can get a clear run in the straight while the front two are still battling upfront
Both have placed twice on good ground at this track over similar distances and will be ridden to come late from midfield. An error at the second-last or a tired leader could open the door, but both are untested over this trip's demands and lack the recent course form of Euro Agent.
Santa PaulaOrderly ConductCap Bernat
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Euro Agent's placed record on good ground at this track makes it the most likely winner if Cap Bernat's lead is uncontested; monitor whether the pace is truly soft enough to allow a late run.|
WATCH
Poets Rambler's 168-day absence is extreme; if it jumps well after such a long layoff it could run well fresh, but the risk of ring rust is high in a race decided by accuracy over the final hurdles.|
NOTE
Santa Paula and Orderly Conduct lack course form over the full trip; both are hold-up types reliant on clear running in the straight, and both may find the pace and competition stronger than expected.|
NOTE
Cap Bernat's age and modest rating compared to Euro Agent suggest it will tire from the second-last onward unless the pace has been severely contested; watch for signs of a laboured jump at this point.|
2:48 — Denis Macauley Memorial Novice Handicap Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Facile Ocean likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Facile Ocean and Lygon Lad led, as the map showed.
Facile Ocean won at 3.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Facile Ocean
Prominent · 1
Lygon Lad
Midfield · 1
Mr Caulfield
Hold Up · 2
SpeakasyoufindPapagei
Facile Ocean is the likeliest to set the pace, though it led in only one of its last six runs and raced prominently last time out; the yard and rider do tend to go forward. Lygon Lad, a genuine prominent racer with a recent win and two places over similar ground, will track it and is well positioned to challenge. The field holds more pace horses than can all get their natural position—Mr Caulfield is a true hold-up type pushed back by the weight of closer runners, leaving the race to be decided between the forward-going types. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground, and an uncontested lead favours that profile; if Facile Ocean gets clear, it may be difficult to peg back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Facile Ocean leads home
Scenario
If Facile Ocean settles in front and the hold-up runners cannot engineer a late challenge.
Front-runners have a strong record at Downpatrick over this distance and going. Facile Ocean's recent prominence and the lack of a serious challenger to its early position make this the most straightforward outcome.
Facile OceanLygon Lad
B
Lygon Lad picks up the pieces
Scenario
If Lygon Lad stalks Facile Ocean and finds more in the straight.
Lygon Lad has won and placed twice on similar ground and is a natural prominent racer; it can press Facile Ocean hard from the second-last hurdle onwards. Gordon Elliott's yard is in form (6 winners from 52 runners in the last 14 days), and Jack Kennedy is a capable operator in this scenario.
Lygon LadFacile Ocean
C
Hold-up arrival wins late
Scenario
If the pace collapses and a closer catches all three at the finish.
Mr Caulfield or Speakasyoufind could steal it if the front-runners fade badly, but neither has shown the form or course record to make this likely. Hold-up horses have a poor record over this trip and ground, and both are rated below the leaders on official ratings.
Mr CaulfieldSpeakasyoufind
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lygon Lad stalking Facile Ocean into the straight could prove the likeliest winner if the early pace is not as strong as expected.
WATCH
Facile Ocean pulled hard last time and may not settle if asked to lead; if it overraces, Lygon Lad will be waiting to pounce.
NOTE
The hold-up runners (Mr Caulfield, Papagei, Speakasyoufind) are at a disadvantage over this trip and ground; none has the pace credentials to come late and win.
3:23 — CM Precision Components Handicap Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Pahlavi likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Dark Berkshire led; the map had Pahlavi in front.
Pahlavi won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Pahlavi is the likeliest to set the pace, though it has led in only 1 of its last 6 runs and raced prominently last time rather than dominating; the yard and rider favour going forward, which makes it the most probable front-runner by default in a field with no other obvious pace-setter. If Pahlavi does take up the running, the pace should be uncontested through the early hurdles, allowing it to control the race from the front. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and an unforced gallop suits a horse that has shown staying power on good ground; however, Centaq and Invincible Oscar are genuine threats from midfield and hold-up positions respectively, well-suited to pick up the pieces if Pahlavi weakens in the closing hurdles. This field contains more hold-up and near-pace types than can all secure their natural positions: Dark Berkshire and Tommy Go Maith are capable of going prominently, but Pahlavi's early placement makes it unlikely both will get room to travel; Tommy Go Maith in particular, a true hold-up type, is forced to operate in midfield here.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pahlavi holds on
Scenario
If Pahlavi settles into a sensible rhythm and Centaq cannot reel it in on the run home.
Pahlavi will be allowed to dictate an unforced pace from the early hurdles, with Centaq stalking from midfield and Invincible Oscar waiting in the wings; the front-runner has won 3 of 6 on good ground and is well-treated at 91 on the card, and front-runners have a strong record over this two-mile-one-and-a-half course and surface. Centaq has placed in 4 of 6 runs on good ground but must make ground in the final two hurdles; Invincible Oscar, despite a win at this trip on good ground, fades in critical moments.
PahlaviCentaqInvincible Oscar
B
Centaq edges stalker
Scenario
If Centaq tracks Pahlavi into the straight and delivers a sustained run to the last.
Centaq will occupy midfield through the early hurdles, travelling easily behind Pahlavi's uncontested gallop before launching a challenge three out; its four placings on good ground over this distance and the yard's steady 14-day form are positives, though it has not won since achieving a pair of victories earlier in its career. Invincible Oscar will be prominent in the closing stages but lacks the tactical foothold to deny Centaq in a two-horse war.
CentaqInvincible OscarPahlavi
C
Invincible Oscar springs trap
Scenario
If Pahlavi fades early and Centaq fails to quicken in the straight.
Invincible Oscar has won at this trip on good ground and will be held up until the second-last hurdle before making a sudden run at a tiring field; however, it has only one win on record and has placed just once on good ground, making this a longer-odds outcome than either Pahlavi or Centaq are likely to allow. Surviving Murmansk has placed twice on good ground but carries 142 lb and is 12 lb below Invincible Oscar on the official card.
Invincible OscarSurviving MurmanskCentaq
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Invincible Oscar has a win at this trip on good ground and is a capable closer; if Pahlavi weakens into the straight, it may arrive with a devastating late run that neither Centaq nor Pahlavi can repel.
WATCH
Pahlavi races out of its natural hold-up role as the likely front-runner; if the pace collapses or a stronger racer (Dark Berkshire or Tommy Go Maith) forces it into an unforced gallop, it may lack the tactical tools to hold a sustained challenge.
WATCH
Dark Berkshire shows a fading pattern in the finish and is 32 days since last run; it has the speed to travel prominently but has not placed in recent outings and fades when pressure comes on.
NOTE
Tommy Go Maith is a natural hold-up type operating from midfield here and carries a 39-day absence; if it finds improvement, it could circle the field late, but the lack of recent winning form and the fading tendency make this unlikely.
NOTE
Coolnacritta has not raced for over two years; if it has retained fitness in training, it carries the same official 94 rating as Pralognan and could upset at big odds, but the absence is a critical unknown.
3:58 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle
2m6f · Good · MDN · 6 runners
Young Doran likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Fuusland led; the map had Young Doran in front.
Little Ginger won at 1.57 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Young Doran
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Grey AceLittle Ginger
Hold Up · 3
Spill A DropFuuslandPoet's Creek
Young Doran, raced prominently in its last outing and backed by a trainer with a recent winning record, is the likeliest to set the pace; the race should unfold without serious early challenge if it gets there. Little Ginger is a genuine hold-up type forced into midfield company by the shape of this field, but even so, it has won on similar ground and knows how to wait for its moment. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, winning at nearly 1 in 5, and a race dominated by a single, uncontested pace-setter would suit them well. This is a maiden hurdle with limited depth: the shape will likely reward positional control early and a horse that can hold its ground through the back nine.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Young Doran leads and holds
Scenario
If Young Doran jumps off and settles into a steady rhythm at the front.
Young Doran will be allowed to dictate; none of the field has the recent form or tactical nous to challenge the lead decisively. A single front-runner without constant pressure often comes home strongest over this distance, and the going plays to that strength.
Young DoranFuuslandSpill A Drop
B
Little Ginger waits and arrives late
Scenario
If Young Doran is allowed to tire on the run-in and a closer finds a clear passage through the final hurdles.
Little Ginger has won on good ground over two miles and longer, and its record suggests it reads a race well; held up, it would see off tiring legs in the final furlong. The hold-up profile has a weak record here overall, but Little Ginger is materially better than most of the field on official form.
Little GingerYoung DoranFuusland
C
Fuusland picks off the tiring leader
Scenario
If Fuusland settles into a stalking role and Young Doran burns out in the closing stages.
Fuusland has raced on similar ground and has the Gordon Elliott yard's established form for placing horses tactically; a horse with four recent runs under its belt and a jockey of Jack Kennedy's class can steal races in maidens if the pace collapses. This requires Young Doran to weaken more sharply than its recent stays at the front would suggest.
FuuslandYoung DoranLittle Ginger
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Young Doran may control the early stages too completely; if it builds a lead of more than three lengths by the second-last, it could prove hard to catch in the testing ground over the final hurdles.
WATCH
Little Ginger has the form and experience to close, but the field's collective pace may pin it in midfield for too long; watch whether it can extricate itself with enough room in the run-in.
NOTE
Grey Ace is an unknown quantity on this ground; if it settles well and jumps fluently, it could surprise on debut, but Poet's Creek and Spill A Drop are unlikely to feature in the placings.
4:30 — Tennent's NI Handicap Hurdle
2m6f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners
Mister Vic likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sekakarma led; the map had Mister Vic in front.
Youknowme won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.
3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mister Vic
Prominent · 3
SekakarmaSoldier SaintKatie's Casper
Midfield · 4
Doyen OgKared'as de CougnyHob's AngelTara Boe
Hold Up · 7
King Of WesterosThe Chancie GreyErsudalyGlendaars CrystalVroomvroombooYouknowmeJimli's Cave
Mister Vic is the only horse with a clear recent record of leading, but it has not raced for 63 days and is out of form (1-8-0-0-0). The Barry J Fitzgerald yard is not in current form and Mister Vic races as a prominent type rather than a genuine front-runner, so it will not dictate an uncontested gallop even if it does get to the front. Sekakarma, the Strand top pick, is a genuine prominent racer with a strong record at this track and trip on good ground (1 win, 3 places from 7 runs), and Katie's Casper, Soldier Saint and Kared'as de Cougny are all capable of pressing for the lead or midfield position. The field holds more hold-up types than can settle at the back — Kared'as de Cougny, Hob's Angel and Tara Boe are true back-runners squeezed into a crowded rear — so the pace will be contested in the middle, not strong at the front, and closers will find it hard to get a clear run. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip on good ground; a soft, uncontested pace that lets the market's rated threats jump fluently and dominate at the business end favours horses in the first two or three on the track, particularly ones with a clear form line over the course.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sekakarma leads, holds sway
Scenario
If Sekakarma takes or holds a prominent position and paces the race narrowly
Sekakarma has won over this course and trip on good ground with recent form to prove it, and the likely contested middle pace suits a horse that can jump out and control its rivals from the saddle. The crowded rear means late closers will be shuffled back, and front-runners have a strong record here.
SekakarmaKatie's CasperSoldier Saint
B
Prominent racer picked off late
Scenario
If the pace genuinely firms and a back-marker gets a clear gap in the closing stages
Katie's Casper has won and placed on this ground over the trip and will be driven positively by Gainford from a prominent perch; if the pace rattles along, a horse with the form and class to master the tired leaders at the last can strike. Sekakarma cannot be easily removed if it is truly in front, but a strong tempo suits Katie's Casper's profile and recent record equally well.
Katie's CasperSoldier SaintSekakarma
C
Mister Vic revives briefly
Scenario
If Mister Vic steps up dramatically after nearly two months off and holds the lead into the straight
An 8-year-old out of form and long absent cannot be ranked higher than horses with current form and a proven track record at this venue, but Cleary-Farrell is an accomplished pilot and the handicap weights may have worked in its favour. Mister Vic would need to jump fluently and find its old pace to beat either Sekakarma or Katie's Casper.
Mister VicSekakarmaKatie's Casper
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sekakarma is the clear favouring for the most likely race shape and cannot be easily removed if it gets to the front at a contest pace; the Strand top pick has the form and course record to justify odds.
WATCH
The crowded rear and absence of true pace-setting mean late closers from the back will struggle to find gaps in the closing hurdles; horses like Hob's Angel and Tara Boe, forced to race out of position, will be shuffled back further.
NOTE
Soldier Saint is rated 103 official and is the second-highest-rated horse in the race, but the 97-day absence and a run of fading efforts mean the rating alone cannot be trusted to deliver a winning effort.
WATCH
Mister Vic's 63-day absence is the longest recent gap of any front-runner candidate; a horse out that long cannot be expected to lead and hold on, even with a strong jockey in the saddle.
NOTE
Katie's Casper's good-ground form and prominent positioning make it a genuine threat if the pace sets up right, but it will need to jump fluently early and master Sekakarma at the business end if the Strand pick leads.
Down Around is the likeliest to lead, having led in 3 of its last 6 runs, though Gordon Elliott's yard runs this pair and Sam Ewing remains a forward-going combination. The early pace should be uncontested if Down Around settles in front, but this field contains more natural pace-makers than one horse can control: Rockstown Girl, Kalsman and Parkgarve all carry prominent or stalking credentials, yet the track shape and early jumping will determine whether they can find room to challenge or are forced to settle in attendance. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going here, winning well above the odds, and a true uncontested lead would suit that profile; however, if the lesser-fancied runners jostle for position in the early hurdles, the pace will tighten and a closer with finish left in the locker—such as Oh Janey or Astley—will get their chance at the business end.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Down Around leads throughout
Scenario
If Down Around settles in front without serious challenge through the early hurdles.
An uncontested lead plays to the proven strength of front-runners at this course and distance; Down Around has the form to hold the field honest and the recent record to suggest it will take the race on at pace. Kalsman and Parkgarve will shadow but lack the class to overhaul a willing leader.
Down AroundKalsmanParkgarve
B
Closer arrives at the finish
Scenario
If the early pace fractures or Down Around fades in the straight as it has done before.
Rockstown Girl, despite best efforts to race prominently, will be forced to loop the field and come from the rear or midfield in the closing stages when tiring legs in front present an opening. Oh Janey has won here on similar ground and carries the form to strike late; River Tara, a habitual fader, may prove too far back, but Astley's staying power and Danny Mullins' partnership on Iamagetaway offer genuine alternative finishing threats.
Oh JaneyRockstown GirlAstley
C
Stalker takes up running
Scenario
If Rockstown Girl or Kalsman engineer a prominent pitch from the start despite competition for that ground.
The reshuffled early geometry would suit a horse that can track the leaders without doing too much—Kalsman has won at this track and holds a recent second here—but Down Around's class and experience make this a narrow path, and the field's lighter order of merit across these profiles argues against a stalker's win being more than a roll of the dice.
KalsmanRing Of KerryParkgarve
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Down Around has faded in the finish before over this distance; if it tires inside the final hurdle, Rockstown Girl and Oh Janey will pounce hard and the lead will collapse fast.
WATCH
River Tara is a known hard-puller and fader—if it manages to fight up to Down Around early, it may burn the field's energy in the opening mile, gifting a closer like Astley or Kalsman a gift when the pace dies.
NOTE
Rockstown Girl's course record is strong (1 win, 5 places in 12 runs on Good ground here), but racing midfield in a cavalry charge means it needs a genuine shambles up front to find a gap; watch whether it canters into room early or is boxed until the straight.
KEY
Astley, despite a good staying profile and Good-ground form, has not run in six days; if the early pace is hot, it may need to find room sooner than ideal and could scramble rather than cruise home.
NOTE
Oh Janey at 61 days off is the longest absence in the field after Iamagetaway's 151; monitor its first two or three jumps for rustiness before backing its late charge.
5:37 — Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase
2m7½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Bayonetta likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Mastermind and Malton Groove led; the map had Bayonetta in front.
Schiehallion won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
6 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Bayonetta is the only confirmed front-runner in this field, having led in 3 of its last 6 runs, and should set the early pace unchallenged if it gets there. The race holds considerably more hold-up types than front-runners capable of disputing the lead—King Gris, Lecale's Diamond and Schiehallion are all true pace-closer profiles but will be unable to enforce their natural running style in a field where Bayonetta has the liberty to dictate. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground, and an uncontested pace favours a horse that can track and pick off a tiring leader down the straight rather than one forced to make an early move. The tactical verdict: this race will likely be won by a prominent racer or stalker who follows Bayonetta's early framing and takes over when the pace ebbs, not by a horse that needs to lead or fight for position early.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalker picks up tiring leader
Scenario
If Bayonetta sets an early but not punishing pace and begins to fade from two out
A prominent racer or stalker tracking the leader will have the fresher legs to pass Bayonetta at the business end; the ground and trip both reward horses that race in the second rank and pick off fading front-runners. Three By Two's official rating of 117 and consistent recent placed form make it the likeliest beneficiary of this shape, with Mini Getaway and Fr Gilligansvoyge as support.
Three By TwoMini GetawayFr Gilligansvoyge
B
Bayonetta holds on from front
Scenario
If Bayonetta finds more than expected and controls the race throughout
Bayonetta has raced prominently in most recent runs and was raced positively last time; if the early pace is truly uncontested it may have enough to hold a field with no obvious pace pressure. The handicapper rates it level with Lecale's Diamond and Three By Two, and a horse that led in 3 of its last 6 starts has the experience to defend.
BayonettaMini GetawayFr Gilligansvoyge
C
Closer emerges late
Scenario
If an early fall or mistake by Bayonetta opens the door for a hold-up horse to gather momentum
Lecale's Diamond and Schiehallion are genuine hold-up types forced to race out of position in this field; either could produce a closing run if given the opportunity, though both face the tactical headwind of an uncontested pace that allows the field to settle and conserve energy. Malton Groove or Mastermind could exploit late confusion, but their form and ratings do not mark them as convincing winners.
Lecale's DiamondSchiehallionMalton Groove
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Three By Two returns after a long layoff (247 days) with the highest official rating in the field (117) and proven form at this track; if the yard has trained it on properly, it has the class to punish a pace-led race and the experience to time its challenge.
WATCH
Bayonetta must be monitored at the first few fences to confirm it truly intends to lead; if another horse forces it into a dogfight for position early, the energy expenditure could leave it vulnerable to a fresh closer picking up at the business end.
NOTE
The four horses tagged as natural hold-up types (King Gris, Lecale's Diamond, Schiehallion, Shantou Show) are all disadvantaged by an uncontested pace, but Lecale's Diamond and Schiehallion carry the strongest form and should be watched for any sign of trouble in front.
WATCH
Fr Gilligansvoyge's age (13) and the long season it has endured make late-race fatigue a risk; watch for signs of tiring from two out, which would hand the race to a fresher challenger.
NOTE
Mobile Mamma's record of fading in the finish is a serious concern if the race develops as expected; monitor its position from the second-last fence to judge whether it has the legs to sustain a finish.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.