Forbidden is the lone confirmed front-runner in this 14-runner 5f maiden and should dictate from the gates, setting a sustainable pace without any serious challenger pressing from the outside — the field behind is overwhelmingly populated by hold-up and midfield types. Institute is the only genuine prominent racer capable of tracking Forbidden through the early stages, giving the leader a degree of cover rather than real pressure. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Beach Barbie, White Smoke, Famed Again and McHenry Sunrise are all true closers but will be forced to race closer to the pace than ideal, compromising their natural finishing kick. A sustainable, uncontested lead over 5f on Standard Dundalk turf is a significant tactical advantage, and this race shape strongly favours horses who can either lead or track closely in the first two positions, with genuine hold-up horses squeezed out of their preferred role and unlikely to generate the late burst they need.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Forbidden Controls Unchallenged
54% probability
If Forbidden leads comfortably without early pressure and Institute tracks closely, allowing the front two to control fractions throughout.
Forbidden dictates every yard on a flat 5f track with no rival willing or able to challenge for the lead, conserving energy for the finish; a prominent stalker like Institute or a lightly-raced unknown like Grande Cuvee or Osterode could benefit from the low-pressure pace by sitting within striking range and pouncing late.
ForbiddenInstituteGrande CuveeOsterode
B
Prominent Stalker Sweeps Past
24% probability
If Forbidden sets a strong but not run-away gallop and a prominent-tracking rival sustains momentum to reel it in late.
Institute, trained by A P O'Brien with two Dundalk places at 5f and 6f, is ideally placed to track the leader and unleash a finishing effort on this flat track; a lightly-raced unknown such as Eager Lad or Tudor Flame — both debutants with unknown styles — could emerge from the prominent group with unexposed ability.
InstituteGrande CuveeOsterodeEager Lad
C
Debutant Unexposed Talent
14% probability
If one of the lightly-raced or debut runners (Eager Lad, Tudor Flame, Osterode) shows superior raw ability that trumps positional disadvantage.
With three runners carrying UNKNOWN style tags and lightly-raced flags, any one could be making a significant forward move from an unexposed base; Osterode, who ran 4th on debut at 5f at the Curragh in good ground, has direct course-distance form and could outclass this field if that run merely scratched the surface.
OsterodeTudor FlameEager LadGrande Cuvee
D
Closers Overcome Crowded Rear
8% probability
If the pace collapses late and the redistributed hold-up horses find gaps to deliver their natural finishing runs despite adverse positioning.
This scenario demands that Beach Barbie, White Smoke or Famed Again — all true hold-up types forced to race closer than ideal — somehow recover their natural style and finish strongly; given their STYLE_FIT discounts and the compressed 5f trip leaving minimal time to make up ground, this remains the least likely outcome.
Beach BarbieWhite SmokeFamed AgainNebrook Star
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Forbidden in the early strides — if she is allowed to bowl clear unchallenged, her lone front-running role over 5f on Standard going is a significant tactical weapon that the field may simply lack the pace to counter.
KEY
Institute is the one prominent-style runner capable of tracking Forbidden throughout; if Wayne Lordan can keep him close to the lead in second or third, he is best-placed of all to capitalise if Forbidden fades inside the final furlong.
WATCH
Osterode with McDonogh and a visor first-time is the most interesting unexposed runner — a 4th on debut at 5f Curragh is solid form and the headgear change could unlock improvement; watch the market for any significant drift or support.
WATCH
Beach Barbie, White Smoke and Famed Again will all be forced to race closer than their natural hold-up style demands — if they get competitive early fighting for position, it could create mid-race crowding that disrupts the pack and opens up room for a prominent-tracking rival.
NOTE
Grande Cuvee for J A Stack (same yard as McHenry Sunrise) had a promising 3rd at 5f Curragh — Seamie Heffernan's booking in a maiden of this nature is worth noting as a possible yard confidence indicator.
1:50 — Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden
6f · Standard · MDN · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:25 — BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Mourne Handicap
6f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners
Allsortz to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Cuban Grey led; the map had Allsortz in front.
Dark Ace won at 4.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Allsortz
Prominent · 3
I Bid You AjouDandyvilleAll The Girls
Midfield · 4
Dark AceCollective PowerFox In FlightCuban Grey
Hold Up · 4
Sir Les PattersonValiant ForceBlack ForzaKerdos
Allsortz is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 12-horse field and should secure an uncontested lead at a sustainable gallop on Dundalk's standard surface, dictating throughout from the front without meaningful pressure. Behind him, I Bid You Ajou, Dandyville, and All The Girls will look to press for prominent positions, but this is not a strongly pace-pressured race — Allsortz can bowl along at his own rhythm and control the tempo. The field contains a significant cluster of genuine hold-up horses (Dark Ace, Collective Power, Fox In Flight, Cuban Grey) that cannot all settle at the true rear and have been redistributed into midfield, meaning their finishing kicks will be compromised by having to travel further forward than ideal. This race shape strongly favours either Allsortz himself if the pace is truly uncontested and moderate, or horses positioned prominently to track him and pounce, rather than those relying on a late surge from genuine hold-up ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Allsortz Controls Unchallenged
54% probability
If Allsortz bowls to the front uncontested and sets a fair but manageable gallop, allowing him to dominate throughout.
Allsortz gets an untroubled lead and dictates pace to suit himself on this standard Dundalk surface, meaning no horse in behind can build up enough momentum to reel him in over just 6f. Prominent horses I Bid You Ajou and Dandyville may chase but lack the class at the weights to close a controlled gap.
AllsortzI Bid You AjouDandyvilleAll The Girls
B
Prominent Pair Collars Leader
24% probability
If Allsortz sets an honest pace and the prominent runners tracking him have enough in reserve to overhaul him inside the final furlong.
I Bid You Ajou and All The Girls are genuine prominent racers who can sit just off the pace and time their challenge, benefiting from a race where the true hold-up horses are squeezed out of their natural position. Kerdos, who has a recent course win over 5f on Standard and sits off the pace, could also arrive late enough to be involved if the front two tire.
I Bid You AjouAll The GirlsKerdosDandyville
C
Hold-Up Horse Splits Field
14% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to stretch the field and one of the closer types can find a clear run to power through.
Dark Ace has the best recent form figures in this field (ORs of 91 backed by prior wins on Standard) and could benefit if gaps open late, but his redistribution from true hold-up to midfield makes it harder for him to produce a finishing burst from far back. Sir Les Patterson or Valiant Force, sitting off a proper gallop with OK going assessments and decent RPRs, represent the hold-up profile that might land this shape.
Dark AceSir Les PattersonValiant ForceCollective Power
D
Chaos — No Clear Winner
8% probability
If the large field causes trouble in running, with crowding on the bend hampering the prominent and midfield groups and producing a messy finish.
With 12 runners on Dundalk's tight track, interference on the turn can scramble the race entirely, and a horse like Kerdos — who has course form and is unexposed here over 6f — could pop up if rivals are shuffled back. Black Forza returns from 90 days off with top jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle booked, offering each-way value if the race falls apart.
KerdosBlack ForzaCuban GreyFox In Flight
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dandyville — a 376-day absence is a serious fitness concern and Chris Hayes will need to produce an almost perfect front-to-finish ride for this 8yo who has been showing double-figure placings even when fit.
WATCH
Fox In Flight and Dark Ace are both true hold-up horses who cannot get their natural position in this 12-runner field — watch for them to be caught in traffic on Dundalk's tight turn and unable to produce their finishing run at the critical stage.
WATCH
Allsortz is trained by David Marnane who also saddles Fox In Flight — if connections have a preferred runner, watch whether Fox In Flight's jockey (Andrew Slattery) exerts any pace pressure on Allsortz in the early stages that would disrupt the controlled lead scenario.
NOTE
Black Forza returns from 90 days off with Dylan Browne McMonagle booked — a big-name jockey pick-up on a fresh horse carrying a tongue-tie is a combination worth monitoring in the market before the off.|
3:00 — BAR 1 Betting 'First For Football' Apprentice Maiden
7f · Standard · MDN · 17 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:30 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden
1m · Standard · MDN · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:00 — BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Handicap
1m · Standard · HCAP · 17 runners
Never Mind Me likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Roman Harry led; the map had Never Mind Me in front.
Reponse Finale won at 2.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Never Mind Me
Prominent · 2
Six WingsRampage
Midfield · 9
TenaciousMovin And GroovinBeau ArmyPolancoCause I Like YouDue In JuneMisavaReponse FinaleMaster Garvey
Hold Up · 5
Queen LeilaBullet BourbonAngel Of PromiseRoman HarryFamous Enough
Never Mind Me is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with only Rampage and Six Wings as genuine prominent types behind, she faces minimal early pressure and should dictate a controlled, even gallop on Standard Dundalk ground over the mile. With no rival willing or able to seriously challenge for the lead, the pace is likely to be honest but not brutal — a tempo set entirely to suit Never Mind Me's rhythm rather than forced by any rival. The real tactical complication is the extraordinary density of hold-up horses in this field: Tenacious, Movin And Groovin, Beau Army, Reponse Finale, Cause I Like You, Master Garvey, Polanco, Due In June, and Misava are all natural closers who cannot all settle at the back of 17 runners — several will be forced wider and closer to the pace than ideal, compressing the midfield and creating a congested bunch through the middle sectors. This race shape — a moderate, controlled gallop set by one unchallenged leader — materially favours horses who can race prominently or travel just off the pace in the first four, rather than true hold-up types who need a strong gallop to make up ground late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls
52% probability
If Never Mind Me dictates an uncontested moderate tempo and the pace-compressed midfield struggles to mount a sustained late challenge.
Never Mind Me settles into a rhythm unchallenged through the early and middle sections, and the lack of a genuine strong gallop means hold-up horses in the congested bunch never get the searching pace they need to reel her in; those racing prominently just behind her are best placed to pounce in the final furlong.
Never Mind MeRampageFamous EnoughQueen Leila
B
Prominent Pair Strike
27% probability
If Rampage or Six Wings push closer to Never Mind Me early, injecting slightly more pace that eventually softens her but leaves close-up horses best placed.
A marginally stronger tempo than Scenario A develops through the middle mile, meaning Never Mind Me is reeled in inside the final two furlongs by horses who tracked her off the pace rather than those caught wide in the congested bunch behind.
Famous EnoughQueen LeilaBullet BourbonBeau Army
C
Late Closers Pounce
13% probability
If the pace somehow quickens sufficiently in the straight to string the field out and reward the genuine hold-up horses.
A true closer would need an unlikely injection of pace from the front end on a Standard surface, but if Rampage or Six Wings force an honest gallop that burns out Never Mind Me, hold-up horses who find a clear run in a rare-for-this-field strong-tempo shape could arrive late.
Movin And GroovinCause I Like YouReponse FinaleBeau Army
D
Chaos — Congestion Strikes
8% probability
If the overloaded midfield causes significant traffic problems, interference, or checks in the straight that scramble the finish order unpredictably.
With 17 runners, most of whom are hold-up types compressed into a tight bunch, a wall of horses could block the straight and create gaps that only the widest or luckiest escapee exploits; this is a low-probability but non-trivial risk in a field this size with this profile.
Bullet BourbonMaster GarveyRampageFamous Enough
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Never Mind Me's 683-day absence is the race's single biggest unknown — if she shows any signs of ring-rustiness or is sluggish away, the entire pace dynamic collapses and the race opens up dramatically for prominent types.
KEY
Reponse Finale ran yesterday (1d LR) and any watch-list alarm should focus here — a horse asked to run back on consecutive days at Dundalk is an extreme fitness question and Gavin Cromwell's explanation will be worth monitoring pre-race.
WATCH
With 17 runners of which the majority are hold-up types compressed into midfield, a significant bunching or checking incident in the home straight is a realistic risk — horses drawn wide (high stalls) may actually benefit by avoiding the inner traffic.
WATCH
Movin And Groovin's recent Dundalk win over this trip is form that cannot be ignored, but his true hold-up style being forced forward by field density means he may race uncomfortably — watch whether Nathan Crosse attempts to sit in or is pushed forward early.
NOTE
Queen Leila and Cause I Like You both won last time out over this course and distance on Standard — their course-specific winning form makes them the two most interesting hold-up types if the pace does materialise to suit a late challenge.
4:35 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap
1m2½f · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners
Iron Fist likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Touch The Moon won at 8.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Iron Fist
Prominent · 5
Star HarbourTouch The MoonSlieve BinnianNermalCala Bonita
Midfield · 4
Steel CutFollow MeBeauparcQuatre Bras
Hold Up · 4
GenoahApercuTribal StarCrypto Force
Iron Fist is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead in a field of 14, is expected to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop on Standard Dundalk turf over 1m2½f. Star Harbour, Touch The Moon, Slieve Binnian, Cala Bonita, and Nermal will press forward to prominent positions just behind, creating a compact front group but without the pressure that would turn this into a true test of stamina. The hold-up brigade — Apercu, Genoah, Tribal Star, and Crypto Force — will settle in behind, though several horses tagged as natural hold-up types (Steel Cut, Follow Me, Beauparc, Quatre Bras) have been pushed into midfield on the map because the field holds more come-from-behind types than can comfortably occupy the rear; in practice, Iron Fist and Star Harbour are most likely to actually secure the front positions. With a lone, uncontested pace-setter able to control tempo, this race shape decisively favours prominent racers who track the leader comfortably and have the finishing kick to pounce from close range, rather than deep closers who need a true-run affair to make up ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Iron Fist Controls, Prominent Win
54% probability
If Iron Fist is left alone to set a measured pace, gifting a cheap lead to himself and those tracking closely.
Iron Fist rolls along in front at a tempo he dictates, with Star Harbour and Nermal sitting just off his shoulder; when the sprint begins in the final two furlongs, those in the slipstream have first use of their energy and the race is decided between the front two or three.
Iron FistStar HarbourNermalTouch The Moon
B
Prominent Closers Overhaul
24% probability
If the pace is slightly stronger than expected, allowing the second wave of prominent racers to wear down the front rank late.
Touch The Moon or Nermal, travelling smoothly just off the pace, pick up the pieces as the front-runner tires in the final furlong on a track where pace figures are Standard throughout the card.
NermalTouch The MoonStar HarbourCala Bonita
C
Hold-Up Horse Pounces Late
14% probability
If Iron Fist sets a genuinely brisk early tempo that strings the field out and the race develops into a true stamina test.
Apercu or Genoah, both with strong form profiles on similar ground and distances, close from midfield as the pace collapses in front; Genoah's sim-going record of 4W5P in 15 comparable runs is particularly relevant here.
ApercuGenoahTribal StarCrypto Force
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos
8% probability
If multiple horses dispute the lead aggressively, creating an unusually fast early fractions that results in a blanket finish.
The redistributed hold-up horses — Steel Cut, Follow Me, and Beauparc — who are unlikely to get their natural rear position, find themselves racing much closer than ideal and the race turns into a messy affair where a midfield type sneaks through.
Steel CutBeauparcFollow MeQuatre Bras
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Iron Fist holds an uncontested lead — if Shane Foley gets a soft time of it in front with no pressure, the race may be over before the pack can close, making him the key danger if allowed to dictate completely.
WATCH
Star Harbour ran just three days ago and could be feeling that effort in the closing stages — watch for him to weaken inside the final furlong if the pace has taken its toll before the run-in.
WATCH
The cluster of redistributed hold-up types (Steel Cut, Follow Me, Beauparc, Quatre Bras) could cause a congestion problem in midfield on a tight Dundalk track, creating scrimmaging and interference in the early-to-middle stages.
NOTE
Nermal's trainer-rider combination and his Standard-going placed form make him one to monitor in the prominent group — if he travels better than Iron Fist in the straight, his finishing effort could be decisive in a scenario where the leader fades.
NOTE
Crypto Force's 112-day layoff means he may need this run physically — watch his early-race demeanour and whether Donagh O'Connor sends him forward or holds him up, as either choice risks his chance given both the absence and the natural closing style.
5:10 — Friday Night Lights Return Weekly From 18th September Handicap
1m2½f · Standard · HCAP · 17 runners
Coul Dore to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Copper Craft won at 5.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Chloe's BoyRetro GalNavajo PointAnchors AwayStorm Eric
Coul Dore is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 17-horse field and, with no genuine pace pressure from another leader, Seamie Heffernan can dictate terms at whatever tempo suits, setting a controlled, sustainable gallop around Dundalk's flat 1m2½f circuit. Rising Sky and Dancing Steve will push forward from the prominent positions, but neither has the profile to seriously contest the lead, meaning Coul Dore should travel comfortably on the front end without being harried. The vast majority of this field are natural hold-up or midfield horses — Storm Eric, Without Love, Copper Craft, Barretstown, Yquem and others all want to come from behind, and on a Standard surface at Dundalk where the pace is likely to be measured rather than searching, those deep hold-up types face a stiffer test than usual. This race shape — a lone leader controlling a moderate gallop with a large cluster of hold-up horses unable to all get clear runs — strongly favours the prominent and pace-pressing profile, as horses that can track Coul Dore just off the pace will be best placed when the sprint home begins. The field contains far more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear; of the redistributed runners, Without Love and Yquem — both with genuine staying form and tactical versatility — are most likely to actually secure a position closer to the pace than their mapped midfield slot suggests.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Coul Dore Controls Unchallenged
48% probability
If Coul Dore leads comfortably, dictates a measured gallop and the hold-up pack get stuck in traffic turning for home.
Coul Dore, handled by Heffernan, sets a controlled pace that robs the closers of the strong gallop they need, and the horse's fade-in-finish flag becomes irrelevant if the winning post comes early enough in the sprint.
Coul DoreRising SkyDancing SteveStorm Eric
B
Prominent Presser Pounces
28% probability
If Coul Dore's moderate pace allows a tracking horse to cruise into contention from 2f out and win with a sustained run.
A horse like Storm Eric or Without Love, travelling prominently rather than their natural rear position, times a run off the controlled fractions to pick up the leader.
Storm EricWithout LoveRising SkyYquem
C
Hold-Up Horse Gets Through
14% probability
If the pace quickens sufficiently in the final half-mile to string the field out and create a clear late-running lane.
A genuine closer navigates the large field traffic, finds daylight, and picks off the tiring leaders in the final furlong — Storm Eric's excellent Dundalk Standard form fits this best.
Storm EricYquemCopper CraftWithout Love
D
Pace Collapse Bunches Field
10% probability
If Coul Dore sets such a crawl that the field concertinas entering the straight and a sprint finish ensues.
A wide-draw or prominent horse produces a sharp turn of foot in the mass sprint that negates the slow early pace — Dancing Steve or Navajo Point could benefit from a compressed finish where fitness gaps close.
Dancing SteveNavajo PointRising SkyRetro Gal
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Coul Dore (Heffernan) is the only horse guaranteed a clear lead — watch whether he is allowed to bowl along unchallenged or whether Rising Sky or Dancing Steve push forward to pressure him in the first half-mile, as that single factor defines the entire race shape.
KEY
Storm Eric has the best Standard-going profile in the field (11/15 on the surface, five placings in his last five over this trip at Dundalk) — if he travels smoothly in the early stages and gets a clear passage turning for home, he is the most dangerous hold-up type regardless of scenario.
WATCH
With nine or more genuine hold-up horses all needing to come from the rear, a severe traffic-jam in the straight is highly probable — watch for horses getting blocked on the inside as the field bunches entering the home turn, particularly Copper Craft and Barretstown drawn into the pack.
WATCH
Yquem's recent form (1st, 3rd, 4th) makes him the most unexposed improving profile here — watch his early positioning under Jack Cleary; if he manages to track the pace rather than settle deep, his chance is markedly higher than his hold-up tag suggests.
NOTE
Coul Dore's 56-day layoff combined with his fade-in-finish flag means the critical watch point is how he travels in the final 2f — if he visibly tires before the furlong pole, the race becomes entirely about which hold-up horse gets the clearest late run.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.