2:05 — Weatherbys Racing Bank Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
1m½f · Good · NOV · 9 runners
Lead contested: Vitality v Pureis KingFREEHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
VitalityPureis King
Prominent · 1
Get Outta Here
Midfield · 3
Hattie's CometThomas PictonMick The Hat
Hold Up · 3
RunmanHengestFizzy Bear
Vitality and Pureis King will force the early pace with both showing clear front-running tendencies, though Pureis King has a concerning fade pattern that may see him weaken. Get Outta Here will likely track the leaders prominently while the majority of the field including Runman, Thomas Picton, Fizzy Bear, Hengest and Mick The Hat will settle towards the back. With two confirmed pace-setters over this stamina-testing trip at Epsom, the early gallop should be honest but may not be overly strong given the small field size. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can finish strongly, as the pace-setters are vulnerable to being picked off in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If the early pace is honest but not overly strong with Vitality and Pureis King leading
The pace-setters will soften up the race perfectly for the closers, with Runman's class and Fizzy Bear's stamina coming to the fore in the final two furlongs.
RunmanFizzy BearThomas PictonHengest
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
20% probability
If Get Outta Here can position perfectly behind the leaders without being involved in the early battle
The David Menuisier-trained gelding will have the ideal pitch to strike when the front-runners tire, avoiding both the early pace and getting trapped behind horses.
Get Outta HereRunmanVitalityThomas Picton
C
Front Runner Lasts Home
12% probability
If Vitality gets an uncontested lead with Pureis King failing to go the pace early
The Charlie Johnston filly will be able to dictate throughout and may have enough stamina at this longer trip to hold off the closers despite her 3lb penalty.
VitalityGet Outta HereRunmanFizzy Bear
D
Pace Collapses Completely
3% probability
If both Vitality and Pureis King go off too conservatively creating a sprint finish
The lack of early pace will turn this into a dash from the two-furlong pole, potentially suiting any horse with a turn of foot regardless of usual running style.
Thomas PictonMick The HatRunmanGet Outta Here
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pureis King may set unsustainably strong fractions early given his front-running style before predictably fading
WATCH
Thomas Picton showed nothing at Newbury but drops significantly in class and could outrun his odds
NOTE
Hattie's Comet represents an expensive yearling purchase making debut for connections with limited recent success
WATCH
Get Outta Here has tactical speed to sit closer than usual if the pace becomes modest
NOTE
Runman returns from a 208-day break but the Gosden stable excel with horses returning from long layoffs
2:40 — Betfred Blue Riband Trial Stakes (Listed Race)
1m2f · Good · LST · 6 runners
Lead contested: Balzac v MenziesHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
BalzacMenzies
Prominent · 1
New Zealand
Midfield · 1
Pearl River
Hold Up · 2
Saxon StreetRebel Rocker
Balzac and Menzies are confirmed front runners who will contest the early lead, setting up an honest gallop from the start. With limited pace in a small field, the tempo may be steady rather than fierce through the middle sections. The stamina-laden 1m2f trip at Epsom's unique undulating track will expose any lack of staying power in the closing stages. This honest pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can finish, disadvantaging pure speed types who need softer fractions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
50% probability
If the early pace between Balzac and Menzies creates steady fractions through halfway
Saxon Street, New Zealand and Rebel Rocker get perfect tactical setups to unleash finishing kicks up Epsom's demanding hill. The patient riders can time their challenges perfectly when the front runners begin to tire.
Saxon StreetNew ZealandRebel RockerPearl River
B
Front runner survives
25% probability
If Balzac or Menzies can secure an uncontested lead with the other settling behind
The leader gets first run on the field and maintains enough in reserve to hold off late challengers on the climb to the line. Honest pace but not suicidal fractions allow the pacesetter to last home.
BalzacMenziesNew ZealandSaxon Street
C
Prominent racer strikes
15% probability
If New Zealand can secure the ideal stalking position just behind the early leaders
Ryan Moore can track the pace and pounce when the front runners falter, using New Zealand's proven class and Frankel stamina to grind out victory. The Ballydoyle runner has the tactical speed to quicken when needed.
New ZealandPearl RiverBalzacSaxon Street
D
Pace collapses completely
10% probability
If both Balzac and Menzies go too fast early or one refuses to lead
The race becomes a sprint finish where pure class tells over stamina, suiting horses with high cruising speed regardless of running style. This scenario would be chaotic and unpredictable for all concerned.
New ZealandSaxon StreetBalzacPearl River
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Balzac and Menzies could go too fast early if both refuse to give way, setting up back-runners perfectly.
WATCH
Saxon Street returning after 131 days without a recent run for fitness, though Gosden stable excellent with returnees.
WATCH
New Zealand showed disappointing effort last time at Leopardstown and needs to bounce back to best form.
NOTE
Rebel Rocker stepping up significantly in class after winning a weak Kempton maiden on debut.
NOTE
Pearl River has raced exclusively on good ground or softer, making conditions ideal for another bold showing.
Aurel stands as the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from the start, with Rathgar, Asmen Warrior and Dangerman likely to press forward early but settle behind the leader. The absence of genuine speed pressure means Aurel can control fractions and avoid being harried into unsustainable splits. With prominent runners like Rathgar and Dangerman likely to track closely, the pace should be honest but not brutal, setting up a scenario where horses need to be handy to strike. This race shape strongly favors prominent runners and those with tactical pace over pure hold-up horses, as the controlled tempo will make it difficult for back-markers to close ground effectively.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running
45% probability
If Aurel dictates reasonable fractions without serious early pressure
The Ralph Beckett-trained gelding can utilize his class advantage and kick clear in the straight while prominent trackers struggle to match his sustained drive. His 311-day absence is mitigated by the lack of pace pressure allowing him to find his rhythm.
AurelRathgarAsmen WarriorDangerman
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Rathgar or Dangerman get ideal stalking positions behind Aurel
The controlled pace allows these tactical types to conserve energy before unleashing finishing kicks, with Rathgar's recent Newbury win and Dangerman's blinkers-on form making them dangerous. Their fresher conditions give them the edge in a sustained drive.
RathgarDangermanAurelAsmen Warrior
C
Late Closer Surges
15% probability
If the pace becomes pedestrian and opens up the back straight
Hold-up horses like Sallaal and Duke's Command get the perfect setup to unleash devastating late runs, though they need everything to fall right. The sustained nature of Epsom's climb still makes this challenging despite the tactical advantage.
SallaalDuke's CommandParlandoAurel
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If Aurel goes too slowly and multiple horses challenge simultaneously
The race becomes a messy sprint finish where any horse with a turn of foot can capitalize, favoring those with recent race fitness. Fresh legs and tactical positioning matter more than running style in this chaotic finale.
Asmen WarriorParlandoDangermanRathgar
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Aurel's 311-day absence could see him blow up in the straight despite controlling the early pace
WATCH
Watch Dangerman's early positioning as his blinkers-on record at 1m2f is excellent but needs to be handy
NOTE
Rathgar's recent Newbury win came after a break, suggesting he handles fresh returns well
WATCH
Multiple hold-up horses may struggle if Aurel sets modest fractions with no genuine pace pressure
NOTE
Asmen Warrior has been runner-up in four of his last five starts and looks overdue for breakthrough win
3:50 — Weatherbys Global Stallions App Great Metropolitan Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Topteam to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Topteam
Prominent · 2
Asgard's CaptainNight Breeze
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
Sing Us A SongNunc Est Bibendum
Topteam will set a steady tempo from the front with no natural early challenger, creating an uncontested lead scenario. Night Breeze and Asgard's Captain will settle prominently behind the leader, while Sing Us A Song and Nunc Est Bibendum drop back to pick up pieces. With only five runners and Topteam able to dictate fractions, this becomes a test of who can best utilize the tactical positioning behind the leader. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike, as hold-up horses face limited opportunities to weave through traffic in such a small field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Topteam Controls Throughout
40% probability
If Topteam maintains his recent form and gets soft fractions on the front end
Oisin Murphy can dictate ideal splits and kick clear turning for home, making the hold-up horses' task near impossible. The gelded four-year-old's three wins on good ground last season prove he handles these conditions perfectly.
TopteamAsgard's CaptainNight BreezeSing Us A Song
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
35% probability
If Night Breeze or Asgard's Captain can get the jump on Topteam in the straight
The race becomes a straight fight between the two prominent runners, with last year's winner Asgard's Captain holding a slight edge through course experience. Night Breeze's Ascot wins suggest he has the class to capitalize if positioned perfectly.
Asgard's CaptainNight BreezeTopteamSing Us A Song
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
15% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely slow and Sing Us A Song gets a clear run from James Doyle
The Ralph Beckett-trained four-year-old can utilize his fresh legs after 214 days off to produce a devastating late surge. His Sandown handicap debut win proved his effectiveness when getting racing room.
Sing Us A SongNunc Est BibendumTopteamAsgard's Captain
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If Topteam stops in front and creates a messy finish with multiple challengers
The small field becomes bunched turning for home, allowing any horse to capitalize on the moderate early pace. Nunc Est Bibendum's stamina advantage from recent 2m wins could prove decisive in a slowly-run affair.
Nunc Est BibendumSing Us A SongAsgard's CaptainNight Breeze
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Topteam breaking slowly or being challenged early would completely alter the pace dynamic and favor the closers
WATCH
Night Breeze and Asgard's Captain getting too close to each other in running positions, reducing their tactical options
NOTE
Sing Us A Song's fitness levels after 214 days off, as any rustiness will be exposed in this small competitive field
WATCH
Weather changes affecting the good ground, as several runners have mixed records on softer surfaces
NOTE
Oisin Murphy's early positioning on Topteam, as any deviation from front-running tactics would create chaos
4:23 — Betfred 'Nifty 50' Handicap
1m½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 3
Timber TwelveOn MessageAssaranca
Prominent · 1
Mayaada
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
Montague MenaceTerranoble
Timber Twelve, On Message, and Assaranca will all go forward from the bell, creating a genuine three-way battle for the early lead over Epsom's testing 1m½f trip. This sustained gallop will stretch the field and put maximum emphasis on stamina, particularly as they climb Tattenham Hill and face the camber. The strong pace will set up the race for horses with proven staying power who can finish strongly. This race shape heavily favours the hold-up horses who can conserve energy and pick up the pieces when the pace-setters tire.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapses Late
45% probability
If the three front-runners go too hard early and crack climbing the hill
The sustained battle between Timber Twelve, On Message and Assaranca will take its toll as they hit Tattenham Hill, allowing the closers to sweep up. Terranoble and Montague Menace are perfectly positioned to exploit the pace collapse with their hold-up styles.
TerranobleMontague MenaceMayaadaTimber Twelve
B
Front Runner Survives
30% probability
If one of the pace-setters can rate themselves better than their rivals
Timber Twelve's unbeaten record suggests he can judge pace better than On Message and Assaranca, potentially stealing a march as the others weaken. His recent Southwell success shows he can handle pressure and find extra when challenged.
Timber TwelveOn MessageTerranobleMontague Menace
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If Mayaada can sit just off the pace and avoid the early battle
The Epsom course winner can use her track knowledge to position perfectly behind the leading trio before making her move. Her previous success here gives her a tactical advantage that could prove decisive if she can recapture her best form.
MayaadaTerranobleTimber TwelveMontague Menace
D
Chaos In Running
10% probability
If the pace battle causes interference or significant trouble in running
The narrow Epsom track combined with three keen front-runners could cause traffic problems that shuffle the pack completely. Any horse finding clear water at the right moment could capitalize on others' misfortune.
Montague MenaceAssarancaTerranobleMayaada
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Timber Twelve may not get the soft lead he enjoyed in previous victories with On Message and Assaranca both wanting to dominate
WATCH
On Message's 204-day absence could catch up with her if the pace becomes truly testing up Tattenham Hill
WATCH
Mayaada's last two runs were poor and she needs to prove the course advantage can overcome recent form decline
NOTE
Terranoble makes his turf debut but his hold-up style is perfectly matched to the likely race development
NOTE
The three confirmed front-runners could go so fast early that even 1m½f becomes a stamina test
4:58 — Betfred 'In Celebration Of Mark Friar' Handicap
1m½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Kaleido likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Kaleido
Prominent · 2
Sweet RewardAmused
Midfield · 4
Mr BalooCarnival DayTribal RhythmTronido
Hold Up · 3
OrganShafdarKnights Gold
Kaleido and Sweet Reward will set a modest early tempo from prominent positions, with Amused also likely to race handily. The hold-up brigade of Mr Baloo, Knights Gold, Organ, Carnival Day, Tribal Rhythm, Shafdar and Tronido will all be looking to come from off the pace on this downhill finish. With limited early pace and a strong downhill run-in at Epsom, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce their best work late. The patient tactics will be rewarded as the pace will build gradually rather than being honest throughout.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If the early pace remains modest as expected with only Kaleido and Sweet Reward showing early
The lack of genuine pace will allow the closers to get into perfect striking positions turning for home, with Epsom's downhill finish suiting their style perfectly. Multiple hold-up horses will be in contention in the final furlong.
Mr BalooKnights GoldOrganTribal Rhythm
B
Prominent Runners Hold On
20% probability
If Kaleido or Sweet Reward can dictate at a sensible tempo without being pressured early
Either can maintain their advantage as the field closes late, taking advantage of the tactical race and their superior positions throughout. The pace won't be strong enough to completely expose their prominent tactics.
KaleidoSweet RewardAmusedMr Baloo
C
Late Surge Develops
10% probability
If multiple hold-up horses get squeezed for room or come too late in their challenges
The pace will still be modest but the sheer number of closers creates traffic problems and allows one to get first run. Some talented hold-up horses will be unlucky but others benefit from cleaner passages.
Carnival DayShafdarKnights GoldTronido
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If Kaleido and Sweet Reward go too slowly and create a sprint finish from the turn
The race becomes a pure test of acceleration rather than stamina, potentially suiting horses with tactical pace. This scenario makes the form hard to assess and creates upset potential.
AmusedTribal RhythmSweet RewardMr Baloo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sweet Reward may struggle to see out this trip after 185 days off despite her class advantage
WATCH
Watch early pace development - if Kaleido goes too slow it creates a sprint finish that changes everything
NOTE
Mr Baloo's first run back on turf since winning - cheekpieces retained suggests connections confident
WATCH
Knights Gold needs luck in running given hold-up style and competitive field of similar tactical horses
NOTE
Tribal Rhythm attempting to repeat last year's winning tactics in identical race conditions
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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