Rosie Frith, Shes Got A Brother and Hanney Girl will ensure a strong gallop from the start over this sharp 5f at Epsom. With 16 runners and three confirmed front-runners, the pace will be honest throughout with no let-up. The sustained gallop will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the final furlong. This pace dynamic clearly favours hold-up horses and prominent racers who can finish strongly, as the early leaders will face pressure and potentially weaken late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Gallop Suits Closers
55% probability
If the three front-runners engage early and maintain a solid pace throughout
The honest gallop will set up perfectly for hold-up horses to close late as the pace-setters weaken in the final furlong. Horses with proven finishing kicks will have ideal conditions to strike in the closing stages.
CoyyWedonttellliesChairmanfourtimesRiley Rocks
B
Front-Runner Survives
25% probability
If one of the pace-setters manages to steal a march and build an unassailable lead
Shes Got A Brother or Hanney Girl could use their speed to dominate from the front if they can get first run on their rivals. The winner would need to maintain galloping strength when the closers challenge.
Shes Got A BrotherHanney GirlNaana's ShadowU S S Charleston
C
Prominent Tracker Pounces
15% probability
If the prominent racers can sit just off the pace and time their challenge perfectly
Horses like One And Gone or Temple Of Athena could benefit from tracking the leaders before striking at the optimal moment. This scenario rewards tactical speed and the ability to quicken when positioned ideally.
One And GoneTemple Of AthenaNaana's ShadowProof
D
Pace Collapses Early
5% probability
If the front-runners go too fast early and compound badly in the final stages
An overly aggressive early pace could see all three leaders stop dramatically, allowing any horse with reserves to pick up the pieces. This would create a war of attrition favouring stamina over speed.
Alfa DuplicateHenrythenateCall MargotArtista
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for trouble in running with 16 runners over the sharp 5f Epsom track, particularly affecting hold-up horses like Chairmanfourtimes and Coyy
WATCH
Monitor how aggressively the three front-runners Rosie Frith, Shes Got A Brother and Hanney Girl engage early as this will determine the pace strength
NOTE
Observe Oisin Murphy's tactics on Naana's Shadow as he may try to track the leaders rather than make all from a wide draw
NOTE
Watch for Wedonttelllies to be produced late with his customary strong finish if the pace sets up as expected
WATCH
Check if any of the prominent runners like One And Gone or Temple Of Athena can secure ideal tracking positions behind the pace-setters
Hickory Lad, Alpe d'Huez, and Time And Effort will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with Hickory Lad likely to press hardest given his consistent front-running style over 5f. The pace will be searching throughout the 6f with multiple confirmed leaders creating pressure up front. This sustained gallop will stretch the field and test stamina, particularly on the softening ground at Epsom. The strong pace clearly favours hold-up horses and closers who can benefit from the collapse of over-exerted front-runners.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Pace Benefits Closers
55% probability
If the three front-runners engage early and maintain a searching gallop
The sustained pace will stretch the field and allow late runners to pick up the pieces as leaders tire in the final furlong. Hold-up horses with proven stamina will thrive as the pace collapses.
PossessiveSocial SpiritDandyman DanRlasthope
B
Tactical Front-Runner Survives
25% probability
If Hickory Lad can dictate without serious pressure from the other leaders
A more controlled pace allows the classiest front-runner to maintain his kick, with Hickory Lad's solid 5f form translating effectively to 6f. His RPR of 92 gives him the edge if not over-pressed.
Hickory LadWild TerrainPossessiveAlpe d'Huez
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If the pace is strong but one horse can track the leaders without fully committing
A prominent runner gets the perfect trip behind the battling front-runners and has enough left to strike in the final 100 yards. The pace sets it up perfectly for a horse sitting just off the speed.
RomidijoDandyman DanHickory LadSocial Spirit
D
Pace Collapses Early
5% probability
If the front-runners go too fast too early and all three fade badly
The leaders burn out before halfway, creating a sprint finish from a crawling pace that suits horses with natural speed over stamina. This scenario heavily favours the unexposed types with raw pace.
Havana FlashWild TerrainPossessiveAlpe d'Huez
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hickory Lad and Alpe d'Huez both come from extended breaks (30+ days) and may lack peak fitness for strong pace battle
WATCH
Time And Effort brings poor form but could set unsustainable fractions that collapse the entire pace scenario
WATCH
Havana Flash is completely unexposed on turf and her going preference could determine whether she shows her true ability
NOTE
Possessive and Wild Terrain are both lightly raced improvers who could find significant advancement at this level
NOTE
Social Spirit stretching out to 6f for the first time may need the experience more than the result
2:40 — Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
1m½f · Soft · G3 · 8 runners
Boiling Point likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Boiling Point
Prominent · 2
Seagulls ElevenQirat
Midfield · 3
Ice MaxChancellorRoyal Playwright
Hold Up · 2
PersicaSkukuza
Boiling Point will set the pace from the gates with Seagulls Eleven, Ice Max, and Qirat tracking prominently behind. The front rank lacks genuine speed horses, creating a moderate tempo that builds gradually through Epsom's undulating contours. With no fierce early pressure on Boiling Point, he can dictate terms before the descent to Tattenham Corner where positioning becomes crucial. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers who can stay close to the action and avoid traffic problems that will plague the hold-up horses.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Boiling Point Controls Tempo
45% probability
If Boiling Point breaks cleanly and faces no early pressure from the prominent pack
He can measure out fractions to suit his stamina pattern and prove hard to peg back up the hill. The controlled pace makes it difficult for hold-up horses to generate enough late momentum to reel in the leader.
Boiling PointSeagulls ElevenIce MaxQirat
B
Prominent Battle Develops
30% probability
If Seagulls Eleven or Ice Max decide to challenge Boiling Point early rather than track
A genuine pace develops that sets up the race for closers, with the early leaders potentially emptying their tanks. Ryan Moore on Skukuza and Sean Levey on Persica benefit from the stronger gallop.
SkukuzaPersicaChancellorRoyal Playwright
C
Traffic Chaos Favours Leaders
15% probability
If the field bunches on the turn and runners get blocked for room in the straight
The prominent horses avoid trouble while hold-up runners struggle to find clear passages. Boiling Point and those tracking him have clear sailing while the back markers get shuffled back further.
Boiling PointIce MaxSeagulls ElevenQirat
D
Late Surge Prevails
10% probability
If the pace proves truly pedestrian and the leaders come back dramatically
Hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with plenty of kick left in the tank for the hill. Skukuza's class tells if he settles properly, while Persica can unleash his finishing speed.
SkukuzaPersicaRoyal PlaywrightChancellor
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Skukuza's early settling - if he pulls hard again like last time, his chances evaporate quickly
WATCH
Royal Playwright's fitness after 189 days off - any signs of rustiness in the preliminaries are significant
WATCH
Traffic problems at Tattenham Corner - the tight turn could cause major interference for hold-up horses
NOTE
Boiling Point's early fractions - if uncontested he can steal a march that proves decisive
NOTE
Chancellor's response to turf debut - all his recent form has come on artificial surfaces
3:15 — Betfred "Nifty 50" Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Liberty Lane likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Liberty Lane
Prominent · 6
BolsterRespondHand Of GodKing's CodeTycoonAmmes
Midfield · 5
Auld Toon LoonHave SecretLet's DreamAlpha CrucisSpoken Truth
Hold Up · 5
SallaalBeylerbeyiQuai De BethuneGreat DavidDhahabi
Liberty Lane sits as the lone confirmed front runner in this 17-runner handicap, with several prominent racers like Respond, Bolster, and Hand Of God likely to press but not commit early over this stamina-testing trip. The pace will be sustainable rather than frantic, with Liberty Lane allowed to dictate through steady fractions on the testing ground. This creates a tactical race where the winner will need to be produced with a well-timed challenge, clearly favoring hold-up horses who can finish strongly and prominent racers with stamina reserves over pure speed merchants.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Brigade Dominates
45% probability
If the early pace stays truly moderate and the field remains bunched turning for home
The race becomes a sprint finish where horses with the strongest turn of foot prevail, particularly those comfortable racing off slow fractions. Patient tactics and good positioning become crucial as the field fans out in the straight.
SallaalBeylerbeyiAlpha CrucisGreat David
B
Prominent Pressure Pays
25% probability
If Respond, Hand Of God, and Tycoon apply early pressure to Liberty Lane creating honest fractions
The pace becomes more demanding which suits horses who can travel strongly in the vanguard without getting overly committed early. Those tracking the pace inherit a tactical advantage as the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground.
RespondHand Of GodBolsterAmmes
C
Liberty Lane Wire-to-Wire
20% probability
If Liberty Lane gets uncontested early splits and no serious challenge materializes until too late
The front runner builds an unassailable advantage on ground that rewards stamina over speed, particularly given the testing conditions. Late closers face an impossible task as the leader has too much in reserve.
Liberty LaneBolsterRespondAuld Toon Loon
D
Chaos Sprint Finish
10% probability
If the pace completely collapses with no early pressure and a cavalry charge develops from the 2f pole
Multiple horses arrive together in a messy finish where draw, luck in running, and jockey judgment become paramount. The race loses its tactical shape entirely as stamina becomes less relevant.
Quai De BethuneLet's DreamHave SecretSpoken Truth
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Liberty Lane faces no obvious early pressure which could allow him to dictate terms completely and prove hard to peg back
WATCH
Tycoon and Quai De Bethune are both unraced on softer than good ground which creates significant question marks
NOTE
Respond's progressive profile suggests he can handle the step up in class despite limited soft ground experience
WATCH
Several hold-up horses including Great David and Let's Dream may struggle if the pace becomes too slow early
NOTE
Alpha Crucis has excellent Epsom form including a second here last year on similar ground conditions
4:00 — Betfred Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies)
1m4f · Soft · G1 · 9 runners
Sugar Island to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sugar Island
Prominent · 4
Venetian LaceThundering OnAmelia EarhartCameo
Midfield · 1
A La Prochaine
Hold Up · 3
Legacy LinkK SarraOn Message
Sugar Island will dictate from the front with no genuine pace pressure, setting a measured gallop that should see her still travelling well turning for home. Four horses (Thundering On, Venetian Lace, Amelia Earhart, Cameo) all want prominent positions creating inevitable traffic problems 2-3 furlongs out as they fan wide or get squeezed for room. The hold-up quartet (Legacy Link, A La Prochaine, K Sarra, On Message) will have plenty of horse to aim at but face the challenge of making up significant ground on Epsom's unique contours. This pace setup strongly favours front-runners and those able to get first run from prominent positions, while making life difficult for horses relying on late kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sugar Island Controls
45% probability
If Sugar Island maintains her lead turning into the straight without serious challenge
She can use Epsom's downhill run to stretch the field before the climb, with any prominently-placed horse getting first run having the edge over hold-up horses. The sustainable pace she sets makes it hard for closers to peg back those who travel smoothly into contention.
Sugar IslandThundering OnVenetian LaceCameo
B
Prominent Traffic Chaos
30% probability
If the four prominent runners clash for position approaching Tattenham Corner
The pace quickens as they jostle, setting up the race for a closer with Sugar Island potentially weakening after battling. Hold-up horses with clear runs can capitalize on the earlier pace battle.
Legacy LinkK SarraA La ProchaineOn Message
C
Early Pace Collapse
15% probability
If Sugar Island goes too slowly and gets swamped by the prominent group before halfway
The race becomes a messy sprint from 3f out with those getting clearest runs prevailing over those caught in traffic. Superior class tells in a rough finish.
Venetian LaceAmelia EarhartLegacy LinkThundering On
D
Perfect Hold-Up Trip
10% probability
If Sugar Island sets genuine pace under pressure from prominent runners throughout
The early pace battle sets up a perfect scenario for the hold-up horses to sweep past tired leaders. Class and stamina become decisive factors.
Legacy LinkA La ProchaineK SarraOn Message
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sugar Island could get loose on the lead if no prominent runner applies early pressure, making her very hard to catch
WATCH
Venetian Lace and Thundering On may clash for the same prominent position, compromising both chances
WATCH
Legacy Link needs the pace to be strong enough to set up her finishing kick on ground she's never encountered
NOTE
Cameo represents the in-form O'Brien team but faces a significant class rise from Listed to Group 1 level
NOTE
The three Beckett runners (A La Prochaine, K Sarra, On Message) could provide tactical complications if bunched together
PrincipalityMan Of La ManchaCelebornBragborWalsinghamFinal Night
Hold Up · 5
OzatPopmasterThunder RoarNizamSterling Knight
Mister Winston is the only confirmed front-runner, giving him a tactical advantage as he can dictate terms without early pressure from fellow leaders. Jimmy Speaking, Stem, Hot Cash, Mr Swivell and Asmen Warrior will sit prominent, but none are natural pace-forcers, meaning Winston can control the tempo. The large field of 18 runners features predominantly hold-up horses including Popmaster, Thunder Roar, Man Of La Mancha, Ozat, Bragbor, Nizam, Sterling Knight, Celeborn, Principality, Walsingham and Final Night, creating traffic problems in the back half. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and the lone leader, as they avoid the inevitable congestion behind and can utilize the controlled gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running
45% probability
If Mister Winston gets an uncontested lead and dictates a steady pace
Winston can save energy early then quicken when it matters, while the prominent runners like Jimmy Speaking and Stem get first run on the packed field behind. The large group of hold-up horses will struggle for racing room in the straight.
Mister WinstonJimmy SpeakingStemMr Swivell
B
Prominent Pressure
30% probability
If Jimmy Speaking or Stem press Winston early, creating a stronger gallop
The increased pace will set up the hold-up horses perfectly, particularly those with proven stamina like Sterling Knight and Man Of La Mancha who can finish strongly. The early leaders will weaken in the final furlong.
Sterling KnightMan Of La ManchaPopmasterPrincipality
C
Traffic Chaos
15% probability
If the field bunches up approaching the turn with multiple hold-up horses trapped
Those positioned prominently like Hot Cash and Asmen Warrior will benefit from clear runs while proven operators like Celeborn and Walsingham get hampered. The race becomes about luck and positioning rather than pure ability.
Hot CashCelebornAsmen WarriorFinal Night
D
Late Surge Special
10% probability
If Thunder Roar or Ozat produce exceptional late runs despite traffic
The soft ground specialist Thunder Roar could weave through or the classy ex-French Ozat might have the gears to overcome positioning. This requires everything falling perfectly for a back-marker.
Thunder RoarOzatBragborNizam
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mister Winston has never raced on ground softer than good and soft conditions could blunt his natural speed advantage
WATCH
Thunder Roar is a soft ground specialist but has failed to fire in three starts this year despite favorable conditions
NOTE
Sterling Knight arrives in excellent form with Ryan Moore booked and recent course experience favoring his chances
KEY
Traffic problems are inevitable with 18 runners and 11 hold-up horses likely to get squeezed for room
WATCH
Both Ian Williams runners Ozat and Nizam are making British debuts and represent unknown quantities despite French form
5:15 — Cygames Surrey Stakes (Listed Race)
7f · Soft · LST · 9 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 3
Greek MythologyPostmodernAssaranca
Prominent · 2
Northern ChampionStellar Sunrise
Midfield · 1
Ellusive Butterfly
Hold Up · 3
ArdisiaTen Carat HarryAwaken
Greek Mythology, Postmodern and Assaranca will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with all three confirmed front-runners unlikely to give each other an easy time in a small field. The pace will be testing throughout the 7f trip on soft ground, putting stamina at a premium and creating opportunities for closers to pick up the pieces. Epsom's unique downhill configuration into Tattenham Corner will amplify the pace pressure before the climb to the finish. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay the trip and finish powerfully, while early leaders face a stamina examination.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Pace Collapse
45% probability
If Greek Mythology, Postmodern and Assaranca engage in early pace warfare
The soft ground and testing gallop will find out the leaders' stamina reserves, allowing patient hold-up horses to sweep past in the final furlong. Ten Carat Harry and Ardisia are perfectly positioned to capitalize on their proven finishing kicks.
Ten Carat HarryArdisiaEllusive ButterflyAwaken
B
Tactical Front Runner
25% probability
If one of the pace-setters gets first run and controls the tempo
Greek Mythology's progressive profile suggests he could dictate terms if allowed to lead unchallenged, with his recent third over course and distance proving his effectiveness here. The class drop from Group company to Listed level suits his development curve.
If the prominent racers time their moves perfectly approaching Tattenham Corner
Stellar Sunrise and Northern Champion can track the early pace without getting involved in the speed battle, positioning them ideally for sustained challenges. Both have the class and tactical speed to bridge from mid-pack when the race develops.
Stellar SunriseNorthern ChampionGreek MythologyTen Carat Harry
D
Outsider Ambush
10% probability
If the pace is even stronger than expected and finds out all the fancied runners
Ellusive Butterfly's hold-up style and improving form could see her benefit from a truly-run race where stamina becomes the decisive factor. Her trainer Karl Burke's 14-day record provides additional confidence in her preparation.
Ellusive ButterflyAwakenAssarancaTen Carat Harry
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
If Greek Mythology breaks slowly or gets shuffled back early, his front-running tactics become compromised and chances diminish significantly
WATCH
Watch for Postmodern's jumping from the gates after his long absence, as early positioning will be crucial for his pace-setting role
NOTE
Stellar Sunrise's early position will indicate connections' confidence after his disappointing Newmarket effort last time out
WATCH
Ten Carat Harry needs clear running room in the straight as Epsom's camber can cause traffic problems for hold-up horses
NOTE
Monitor the pace through the first two furlongs as exceptionally fast early fractions will set up the perfect storm for closers
5:50 — Debenhams Handicap
7f · Soft · HCAP · 16 runners
Lead contested: Mister Bluebird v Musical AngelHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
Mister BluebirdMusical Angel
Prominent · 6
Dance In The StormMonarch's GoldAurora MajestyVeblen GoodColombierZarathos
Mister Bluebird and Musical Angel are the confirmed front-runners who will contest the early pace, with Musical Angel having made all when winning over course and distance last September. Dance In The Storm can be difficult to settle and may also press forward from his prominent style, creating an honest gallop throughout. The decent early pace should set up the race for hold-up horses like The Angel King, Arctic Thunder, and Crimson Spirit who can use their finishing kicks. This pace dynamic clearly favours the hold-up merchants who can sit behind the genuine pace and deliver late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominant
55% probability
If the early pace is honest between the front-runners
The strong gallop will stretch the field and exhaust the prominent racers, allowing the patient hold-up horses to pick off tired leaders in the final furlong. The Angel King, Arctic Thunder, and Crimson Spirit all possess the tactical speed to capitalize when the pace collapses.
The Angel KingCrimson SpiritArctic ThunderPietro
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
25% probability
If one prominent horse can secure the perfect position behind the leaders
A horse like Dance In The Storm or Monarch's Gold can track the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle, then strike when the front-runners weaken. Their prominent style allows them to be close enough to capitalize without doing too much early work.
Dance In The StormMonarch's GoldVeblen GoodAurora Majesty
C
Front-Runner Survives
12% probability
If the early pace becomes too fierce between Mister Bluebird and Musical Angel
One of them may get a soft lead as the other fades early, allowing the survivor to dictate terms and hold on. Musical Angel's course and distance win suggests she knows how to handle this track when getting her own way.
Musical AngelMister BluebirdSonA War Eagle
D
Pace Collapses Early
8% probability
If both front-runners go off too fast and fade before halfway
The race becomes tactical with no clear pace-setter, favoring horses that can quicken from any position. This would suit versatile types who don't depend on a strong pace to be effective.
ZarathosPietroVeblen GoodMonarch's Gold
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Musical Angel and Mister Bluebird must be monitored for how fierce their early battle becomes as it will determine the entire race shape
WATCH
Dance In The Storm's settling behavior early on as Oisin Murphy may struggle to get him to relax behind the pace
NOTE
The Angel King's position turning for home as he needs to be within striking distance to use his proven soft ground finishing kick
WATCH
Monarch's Gold stepping up in trip for the first time as the extra furlong is unknown territory for this lightly raced 3yo
NOTE
Arctic Thunder's position choice early as the hold-up horse needs to avoid getting trapped behind a wall of horses on the turn
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.