Our Guide won at 1.73 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
October Hill
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Oscar JackGetone
Hold Up · 2
Our GuideGranpa Ger
October Hill will make the early running as the only confirmed front-runner, with no other pace angles likely to challenge her early. This sets up a comfortable, uncontested lead through steady fractions over the 2m½f trip on good ground. The lack of pace pressure means October Hill can dictate terms and potentially steal a march, while the hold-up horses Our Guide, Granpa Ger and Getone will need the pace to collapse late. This race shape clearly favours the prominent runner who can control the tempo from the front.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
October Hill Controls
55% probability
If October Hill gets an uncontested lead and maintains her jumping rhythm
She can dictate comfortable fractions and kick clear approaching the last, with her recent Ludlow second form giving her a fitness edge over returning rivals. The addition of cheekpieces should sharpen her focus in the closing stages.
October HillOur Guide
B
Late Surge Prevails
25% probability
If Our Guide's class tells in a slowly-run race that becomes a sprint finish
The Galway bumper winner's high-end ability comes to the fore when the pace collapses, allowing Gavin Sheehan to time his challenge perfectly from off the pace. October Hill's lack of a win under rules becomes telling when pressured.
Our GuideOctober Hill
C
Granpa Ger Revival
12% probability
If Granpa Ger benefits from the long break and produces his best Ludlow form
The eight-year-old's solid recent efforts for his new stable suggest he's in good order, and the undemanding pace allows him to stay in touch before outstaying rivals up the hill. His experience in these conditions gives him an edge over less-exposed rivals.
Granpa GerOur Guide
D
Shock Maiden Win
8% probability
If the favourites fail to handle the occasion and pace collapses completely
Getone or Oscar Jack capitalize on a tactical mess where the lack of early pace backfires, with the outsiders staying on strongly when others fade. The recent Exeter experience gives Getone a venue advantage despite his modest profile.
GetoneOscar JackOctober Hill
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
October Hill's jumping under pressure - any mistake when challenged could end her chance of exploiting the pace advantage
WATCH
Our Guide's jumping debut over hurdles - his class is evident but hurdling technique remains unproven at this level
NOTE
Granpa Ger's fitness after 144 days off - any signs of rustiness early could compromise his hold-up tactics
WATCH
The pace through the first mile - if it goes too slow even October Hill may not have enough in reserve to hold off late challengers
NOTE
Oscar Jack's adaptation to hurdles after poor bumper form - any early jumping errors would effectively end his involvement
5:40 — New Inn, Alphington, Exeter Handicap Hurdle
2m2½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Lead contested: Imperial Jade v Rangatira JackHISTORIC
How it ran
Imperial Jade led, as the map showed.
Mr Jukebox won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Imperial JadeRangatira Jack
Prominent · 4
Green SkyStone ColdStinginhisstepThis Sway
Midfield · 2
Mrs PenAnothermanicmonday
Hold Up · 3
Asian SpiceMr JukeboxTaritino
Imperial Jade and Rangatira Jack will ensure a genuine gallop from the start, with This Sway likely to track them prominently early. The pace should be honest rather than frantic over this stamina-testing trip, but neither leader has been in great form recently which could create tactical complications. Green Sky, Taritino and the hold-up horses will get their chance to close from off the pace. This race shape favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can position themselves in the first half of the field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Genuine pace holds up
45% probability
If Imperial Jade and Rangatira Jack maintain a solid gallop to halfway
The leaders will tire in the testing Exeter finish, but the honest pace will suit those who raced prominently throughout. Green Sky and This Sway can capitalize on their forward positions while having more in reserve.
Green SkyThis SwayTaritinoStinginhisstep
B
Front runners collapse early
30% probability
If both Imperial Jade and Rangatira Jack fade before the home turn
The race becomes a sprint from the final hurdle with hold-up horses getting first run. Taritino's flat speed and Mr Jukebox's stamina reserves become decisive factors.
TaritinoMr JukeboxAsian SpiceGreen Sky
C
Tactical battle develops
15% probability
If the early pace becomes steady with multiple horses tracking the leaders
This Sway can use his front-running ability to kick clear, while Green Sky's prominent style keeps him perfectly positioned. The race becomes about who has the most tactical speed.
This SwayGreen SkyStinginhisstepTaritino
D
Messy scramble finish
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely with no clear tempo
The race becomes a lottery with any horse capable of picking up the pieces from any position. Form and ability matter less than luck in running.
Asian SpiceStinginhisstepMr JukeboxThis Sway
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Imperial Jade may not handle the return from a long absence and could stop quickly if the pace gets to him
WATCH
This Sway's 5lb claimer Tom Broughton needs to judge the pace correctly as the horse won making all last time
NOTE
Rangatira Jack's jumping over hurdles after focusing on chasing - any mistakes could end his chances early
WATCH
Asian Spice has a strong course record but hasn't shown her best form for months
NOTE
The ground conditions remain consistent across the card which should help those who handle good going
6:10 — Half Moon, Clyst St Mary Handicap Hurdle
2m7f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Watchoutitscookie likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Watchoutitscookie led, as the map showed.
Square Du Roule won at 3.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Watchoutitscookie
Prominent · 1
Moonlight Artist
Midfield · 4
VengeanceMan Oh ManStage ShowElfride
Hold Up · 2
TeorieSquare Du Roule
Watchoutitscookie will be the main pace-setter with Moonlight Artist likely to track him in second, creating a sustainable tempo over this extended 2m7f trip. The bulk of the field including Square Du Roule, Teorie, Man Oh Man, Vengeance, Stage Show and Elfride are confirmed hold-up performers who will be content to settle towards the rear early. With just two prominent runners and six hold-up horses, this creates a very slow early gallop that will build gradually before a late cavalry charge. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners and those hold-up horses with proven stamina who can quicken late over this demanding distance.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Benefits
45% probability
If Watchoutitscookie sets a steady tempo without pressure from the field
The genuine pace allows prominent runners to conserve energy for a strong finish, while the extended distance tests the stamina reserves of hold-up horses making late moves. Square Du Roule's C&D winning form and Watchoutitscookie's front-running ability become decisive advantages.
Square Du RouleWatchoutitscookieMoonlight ArtistStage Show
B
Late Charge Scenario
30% probability
If the early pace becomes very pedestrian with most runners bunched up turning in
The slow tempo allows the best of the hold-up horses with proven class to unleash devastating late kicks despite the distance. Stage Show's C&D winning experience and Teorie's previous quality become the differentiating factors in a sprint finish.
Stage ShowTeorieSquare Du RouleMan Oh Man
C
Front Runner Dominates
15% probability
If Watchoutitscookie faces no early pressure and gets an uncontested lead throughout
The lack of early pace pressure allows the leader to dictate terms completely before finding extra gear in the straight. Moonlight Artist benefits from the perfect tracking position while others struggle to make up ground from too far back.
WatchoutitscookieMoonlight ArtistSquare Du RouleStage Show
D
Stamina Test Emerges
10% probability
If the genuine pace combined with the extended distance becomes a true test of staying power
The 2m7f trip stretches several runners beyond their optimal distance, creating opportunities for those with proven stamina credentials. Man Oh Man's each-way chance improves significantly if he handles the trip extension from his usual shorter distances.
Man Oh ManSquare Du RouleMoonlight ArtistWatchoutitscookie
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watchoutitscookie's 31-day break could leave him vulnerable late despite setting his own pace early
WATCH
Square Du Roule's 15lb weight rise since C&D win makes his task significantly harder despite improved latest form
NOTE
Teorie's claimer Robbie David takes off 5lb which brings him closer to his last winning mark
NOTE
Man Oh Man's stamina for 2m7f remains unproven with his best efforts coming over shorter distances
WATCH
Stage Show drops back to C&D after poor effort over shorter trip but Isabelle Ryder's 5lb claim helps his cause
6:40 — Heavitree Brewery PLC Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Lead contested: Thank You Blue v AmatchmadeinheavenHISTORIC
How it ran
Thank You Blue led, as the map showed.
Got A Dream won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Thank You BlueAmatchmadeinheaven
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Jack SpratBlue In The West
Hold Up · 2
Got A DreamMammies Boy
Thank You Blue and Amatchmadeinheaven will battle for early supremacy, with both confirmed front-runners likely to set a genuine gallop from the flag. Thank You Blue brings proven stamina over this trip while Amatchmadeinheaven showed his liking for leading when winning here in March. The sustained pace battle between these two will stretch the field and create a demanding test of stamina. This honest gallop strongly favours the hold-up horses who can finish with one run, particularly those proven over the extended distance.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Benefit
55% probability
If Thank You Blue and Amatchmadeinheaven engage in a prolonged pace duel from early stages.
The genuine gallop will find out the front-runners late and set up perfectly for closers with stamina reserves. Got A Dream and Blue In The West can use their hold-up styles to maximum effect.
Got A DreamBlue In The WestMammies BoyJack Sprat
B
Front Runner Survives
25% probability
If one pace-setter gets first run on the other and establishes a controlling lead.
Thank You Blue's proven stamina gives him the edge to dominate from the front if he can shake off Amatchmadeinheaven early. His hat-trick at Ludlow showed his ability to dictate and stay.
Thank You BlueAmatchmadeinheavenGot A DreamBlue In The West
C
Tactical Surprise
12% probability
If both main pace-setters are restrained early creating a stop-start pattern.
A falsely-run race would completely change the complexion and favour horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina. Mammies Boy could benefit from his trainer Nick Scholfield's 2/9 recent record.
Mammies BoyJack SpratThank You BlueGot A Dream
D
Pace Collapse Impact
8% probability
If the early pace battle completely drains both Thank You Blue and Amatchmadeinheaven.
The two front-runners fade dramatically in the final half-mile leaving a sprint finish between the hold-up horses. Jack Sprat's class could tell despite his inconsistent recent form under these circumstances.
Jack SpratBlue In The WestGot A DreamMammies Boy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Thank You Blue's ability to bounce back from disappointing Newcastle run six days ago under top weight
WATCH
Amatchmadeinheaven's 7lb claiming jockey handling the expected early pace pressure against Thank You Blue
NOTE
Jack Sprat's jumping reliability after pulling up last time and inconsistent recent efforts
WATCH
Blue In The West justifying 6lb rise after comfortable course victory ten days ago
NOTE
Got A Dream's fitness after 26-day break despite strong recent course form
6:40 — Royal Oak, Heavitree, Exeter Handicap Chase
3m · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Mythe Bridge likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Thank You Blue led, as the map showed.
Got A Dream won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mythe Bridge
Prominent · 6
Kit's CotyJohn W CreasyTractor JackValirann GoldDaring PlanSteal The Moves
Midfield · 5
Tom DesjyWatchoutitscookiePoet's ReflectionCounteractStadmallen
Hold Up · 5
Loki's MischiefMajestic MomentGingerbredMistymalYes And Yes
Mythe Bridge will set a controlled pace from the front with minimal pressure, as the only confirmed front-runner in this 17-runner field. Kit's Coty, Daring Plan and several other prominent racers will track close behind but won't force the issue early over this stamina-testing 3m trip. The sustainable gallop will leave plenty in reserve for the business end, with the race likely to develop into a sprint finish from the final half-mile. This moderate early pace strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as front-runners and prominent racers will be vulnerable to being swamped in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Late Kick Dominates
60% probability
If the early pace remains steady and reserves are preserved
The hold-up horses will have too much firepower for the early leaders when the race develops into a sprint. Patient jockeys on the right horses will time their runs to perfection.
Loki's MischiefGingerbredYes And YesMistymal
B
Prominent Powers Home
25% probability
If Mythe Bridge or Kit's Coty can dictate without serious pressure
The early positioning pays dividends as they maintain enough energy to resist late challenges. Their tactical advantage of racing on the pace proves decisive.
Kit's CotyMythe BridgeDaring PlanValirann Gold
C
Pace Collapses Early
10% probability
If several prominent runners converge on Mythe Bridge before halfway
The race becomes a test of stamina rather than speed, suiting horses with proven staying power. Those who settle best in the early chaos will emerge strongest.
CounteractMajestic MomentMistymalKit's Coty
D
Front Runner Steals It
5% probability
If Mythe Bridge gets completely uncontested lead and builds big advantage
The lack of early pressure allows the leader to control the race from start to finish. By the time others respond, the gap has become unbridgeable.
Mythe BridgeSteal The MovesKit's CotyDaring Plan
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mythe Bridge could get uncontested lead if prominent runners settle too far back early
WATCH
Several hold-up horses including Loki's Mischief and Gingerbred could converge dangerously late
NOTE
Counteract returning after 874 days off may need the run despite trainer's recent good form
WATCH
Valirann Gold's 3lb claimer Ned Fox could make crucial difference if race becomes competitive finish
NOTE
Tom Desjy's tendency to fade in finish makes him vulnerable over this stamina-testing distance
7:10 — Heart Of Oak, Pinhoe, Exeter Novices' Handicap Hurdle
2m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Lead contested: Prized Jet v Prairie QueenHISTORIC
How it ran
Prairie Queen led, as the map showed.
Modern Style won at 26.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Prized JetPrairie Queen
Prominent · 1
Monsun Climate
Midfield · 3
The PadsterModern StyleSenor Diaz
Hold Up · 3
Kates ChoiceRegal CavalierCeltic Queen
Prized Jet and Prairie Queen are confirmed pace-setters who will contest the early lead, creating an honest gallop from the start. The presence of two front-runners ensures sustained pace through the first mile, with neither likely to yield easily. This strong early tempo will stretch the field and create opportunities for those positioned prominently rather than held up. The sustained pace favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed over hold-up horses who rely on a sprint finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustained Pace Battle
45% probability
If Prized Jet and Prairie Queen engage in a prolonged speed duel through halfway
The honest gallop plays to prominent runners who can track the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle. Monsun Climate and those positioned just behind the leaders benefit from the strong pace without the energy expenditure.
If Prairie Queen or Prized Jet establishes an uncontested lead while the other fades early
The surviving front-runner controls the race tempo and gets an easier lead, making them vulnerable to late challengers with finishing kick. Hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with a more tactical finish.
Prairie QueenCeltic QueenThe PadsterKates Choice
C
Pace Collapse Scenario
15% probability
If both Prized Jet and Prairie Queen fade after their early battle, leaving no clear leader
The race becomes messy with no true pace, suiting horses that can quicken from any position. Those with tactical versatility and recent form have the edge in a sprint finish.
If the front-runners settle into a reasonable rhythm after initial positioning
The race develops into a more traditional staying test where stamina and class prevail. Horses with proven form at the distance and those who stay strongly benefit most.
Celtic QueenKates ChoicePrairie QueenThe Padster
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Senor Diaz has failed to complete in all three runs for Jimmy Frost and represents a significant non-completion risk
WATCH
Both Prized Jet and Prairie Queen as front-runners could compromise each other's chances if they engage too early
WATCH
Monsun Climate returns after 99 days following wind surgery, with trainer struggling at 0/11 in last 14 days
NOTE
Modern Style makes handicap debut off bottom weight and could outrun odds if showing improved form
NOTE
The Padster has undergone wind surgery since last run and drops significantly in class for this assignment
7:40 — Royal Oak, Ideford, Newton Abbot Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
2m½f · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:40 — Globe Inn Chudleigh D & C Intermediate Series Final Hunters' Chase
3m · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.