Archive›Exeter · 7 April 2026

Exeter

7 April 2026 · 7 races

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2:10 — Happy Birthday Fiona Walker Novices' Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Greedy Smith likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Greedy Smith led, as the map showed.

Blue In The West won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Greedy Smith

Prominent · 3

Edna E ModeKlerviaFuture Times

Midfield · 5

VengeanceLocked Down LadMan Oh ManDawn's DesireAlderley Charlie

Hold Up · 4

Pillar The PoetBlue In The WestUrban IsleNoble Grace

Greedy Smith is the only confirmed front runner in this field and will likely dictate proceedings from the front without serious early pressure. Future Times and Klervia may track him in prominent positions, but neither appears keen to force the pace early. This should create a steady, sustainable gallop over the extended trip before quickening from two out. The lack of pace pressure and extended distance strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay and finish, particularly those with proven stamina at this trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If Greedy Smith sets an uncontested lead and the pace stays moderate

The race becomes a sprint finish where fresh finishers with proven stamina can unleash their kicks, negating the front runner's advantage. Vengeance and Man Oh Man benefit most from this tactical setup given their hold-up styles and recent form.

VengeanceMan Oh ManBlue In The WestDawn's Desire

Front Runner Escapes

20% probability

If Greedy Smith gets an easy lead and no serious challenge develops until too late

The cheekpieces help Greedy Smith maintain concentration while the lack of pace pressure allows him to dictate completely. His stamina reserves prove sufficient when the field finally mounts a challenge in the straight.

Greedy SmithFuture TimesKlerviaLocked Down Lad

Prominent Trackers Strike

12% probability

If Future Times or Klervia track closer than usual and apply pressure from three out

The increased pace exposes Greedy Smith's limitations while suiting horses who can travel strongly in behind before delivering their challenge. Klervia's stable form upturn could be significant here despite her poor comeback run.

KlerviaBlue In The WestEdna E ModeVengeance

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If the early pace is crawling and becomes a tactical affair throughout

The race becomes a pure test of finishing speed rather than stamina, potentially suiting horses with turn of foot over proven stayers. This scenario could favour unexposed types or those dropping significantly in trip mentally.

Noble GraceUrban IslePillar The PoetLocked Down Lad

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Greedy Smith could steal this if allowed uncontested lead throughout as field lacks natural pace-forcers

WATCH

Vengeance's recent Wincanton form looks solid but needs to confirm stamina at this extended trip

NOTE

Man Oh Man's tongue-tie addition could be significant given his ability to hit the frame when right

WATCH

Blue In The West's jumping errors last time are concerning given his previous consistent efforts here

NOTE

Dawn's Desire carries just 142lbs and could be value if her Fontwell third translates to this surface

2:40 — Travel Incentive For British Buyers Novices' Selling Hurdle

2m2½f · Good · NOV · 8 runners

Knight Of Magic likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Getone led; the map had Knight Of Magic in front.

American Trio won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Knight Of Magic

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Madame De LabrunieUpthereforthinkingGetoneAmerican TrioJet Joe

Hold Up · 2

Stavanger RoseSharp Tor

Knight Of Magic is the only natural front runner in this field and will get an uncontested lead from the outset. With all other seven runners carrying hold-up styles, Knight Of Magic will dictate a steady gallop throughout without any early pressure. The pace will build gradually as the hold-up horses begin their challenges from the back of the field turning for home. This race shape strongly favours the pace-setter Knight Of Magic, as he can control the tempo without harassment and make his rivals come from too far back in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Knight Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Knight Of Magic jumps cleanly and maintains his rhythm unchallenged.

The pace-setter exploits his tactical advantage with no early pressure, then has enough left to resist the late challengers. Sean Bowen can dictate ideal fractions and kick when the hold-up horses are still too far back to respond effectively.

Knight Of MagicMadame De LabrunieSharp TorGetone

French Mare Finds More

30% probability

If Madame De Labrunie travels strongly and produces her best finishing kick.

The only horse with proven winning form at this level times her challenge perfectly as Knight Of Magic begins to tire. Jonathan Burke's mount has the class edge and Fergal O'Brien's yard is in better form than most trainers here.

Madame De LabrunieKnight Of MagicSharp TorUpthereforthinking

Pace Collapse Suits Closer

15% probability

If Knight Of Magic stops quickly after setting uncontested fractions.

The leaders falters dramatically in the final furlong, allowing a patient hold-up horse to sweep past. Getone or Sharp Tor could benefit most from a truly-run finish if they've been positioned well by their riders.

Sharp TorGetoneMadame De LabrunieUpthereforthinking

Complete Shock Winner

10% probability

If the main fancies all underperform and an outsider finds unexpected improvement.

Upthereforthinking sheds his maiden tag with the visor helping, or American Trio responds to Fergal O'Brien's handling. The weak nature of this contest means any horse showing career-best form could spring a surprise.

UpthereforthinkingAmerican TrioKnight Of MagicMadame De Labrunie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Knight Of Magic's jumping under pressure - any mistake could end his tactical advantage when the field closes

WATCH

Madame De Labrunie's position turning for home - needs to be within striking distance to use her superior class

NOTE

How aggressively the hold-up horses move turning in - early moves could play into Knight Of Magic's hands

WATCH

The pace through the early stages - if Knight Of Magic goes too fast he'll set it up for the closers

NOTE

Upthereforthinking's attitude with first-time visor - any positive response could make him dangerous at big odds

3:10 — Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Circle Of Secrets likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Western Cross led; the map had Circle Of Secrets in front.

Western Cross won at 2.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Circle Of Secrets

Prominent · 1

Blacksamssenorita

Midfield · 1

Son Of Hypnos

Hold Up · 2

Arnie MoonWestern Cross

Circle Of Secrets will be the only confirmed front runner in this small field, setting a sustainable pace without pressure from the start. Son Of Hypnos and Blacksamssenorita as prominent racers may track him but neither is aggressive enough to force the issue early. This creates a controlled tempo that gradually builds, with the real race beginning from the second-last hurdle. The moderate early pace followed by a sustained finish clearly favours hold-up horses who can close strongly, giving Western Cross and Arnie Moon significant tactical advantages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If Circle Of Secrets sets his expected steady pace without early pressure

The controlled tempo allows closers to conserve energy and unleash finishing kicks when it matters. Western Cross and Arnie Moon benefit most from this patient tactical setup.

Western CrossArnie MoonBlacksamssenoritaCircle Of Secrets

Prominent tracker strikes

25% probability

If Son Of Hypnos or Blacksamssenorita pressures Circle Of Secrets earlier than expected

The increased pace stretches the field and creates a more honest gallop throughout. Blacksamssenorita's class edge becomes decisive as the finish approaches.

BlacksamssenoritaSon Of HypnosWestern CrossCircle Of Secrets

Front runner dominates

12% probability

If Circle Of Secrets gets loose on the lead with a big advantage turning for home

The pace-setter builds an unassailable lead while the field fails to respond quickly enough. Circle Of Secrets' 54-day break becomes irrelevant as he times his peak perfectly.

Circle Of SecretsBlacksamssenoritaSon Of HypnosWestern Cross

Crawling pace sprint

8% probability

If the early pace becomes extremely sedate with all horses content to wait

The race becomes a pure sprint from the last hurdle with stamina irrelevant. Arnie Moon's recent Hereford win suggests he has the sharpest acceleration for this finish.

Arnie MoonWestern CrossBlacksamssenoritaCircle Of Secrets

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Circle Of Secrets' fitness after 54 days off could see him fold tamely if the pace lifts approaching the finish

WATCH

Son Of Hypnos pulled up badly on stable debut and amateur Stenhouse may struggle positioning-wise in the early stages

NOTE

Western Cross showed promise in the hood last time and any market confidence would be highly significant

WATCH

Blacksamssenorita's recent form collapse makes her vulnerable despite obvious class advantages

NOTE

Arnie Moon's quick turnaround from Hereford could either catch him at peak fitness or leave him vulnerable

3:40 — Ludo Sports & Live Lounge "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)

2m½f · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

4:10 — It Pays To Buy Irish Novices' Handicap Chase

2m3f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Prairie Queen to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Senor Diaz led; the map had Prairie Queen in front.

Majestic Moment won at 13.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Prairie Queen

Prominent · 4

Loki's MischiefLand Girl's LuckCarrigmoorna RowanPoet's Reflection

Midfield · 2

He'llstopatthetopSenor Diaz

Hold Up · 3

Majestic MomentThe Pit PopsyHoly Legend

Prairie Queen will lead from the start with no genuine pace rival, creating a controlled tempo that suits her front-running style. The prominent quartet of Land Girl's Luck, Loki's Mischief, Carrigmoorna Rowan and He'llstopatthetop will track closely but without creating early pressure. This measured pace will leave plenty in reserve for a sprint finish, with the hold-up horses Senor Diaz, Holy Legend, The Pit Popsy and Majestic Moment potentially gaining late momentum. The lack of early pace pressure clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can position without stress and kick for home.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Prairie Queen gets an easy lead without early interference

The mare can dictate throughout and has enough in reserve to repel late challengers. Her recent chase form suggests she can handle the jumping under pressure while maintaining her rhythm.

Prairie QueenLand Girl's LuckLoki's MischiefCarrigmoorna Rowan

Prominent Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the four prominent runners bunch up and interfere with each other 2-3 out

The congestion allows a hold-up horse to find a clean run and capitalise on the disruption ahead. Majestic Moment or Senor Diaz could benefit from a clear passage when others are scrimmaging.

Majestic MomentSenor DiazThe Pit PopsyHoly Legend

Late Prominent Surge

15% probability

If Land Girl's Luck or Carrigmoorna Rowan travel sweetly and avoid the traffic

Their superior ratings tell as they outgun Prairie Queen in the final furlong. The controlled pace plays into their hands perfectly for a sustained challenge.

Land Girl's LuckCarrigmoorna RowanLoki's MischiefPrairie Queen

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Prairie Queen goes too slow and the field bunches dangerously at the business end

The race becomes a messy sprint where jumping errors or interference can decide the outcome. Any horse finding a clear run could capitalise on the chaos.

Loki's MischiefHe'llstopatthetopPoet's ReflectionThe Pit Popsy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Prairie Queen must be watched for jumping errors under pressure as the uncontested leader approaching the final three fences

WATCH

Carrigmoorna Rowan to watch for any signs of bleeding given she bled two runs back and showed nothing last time

WATCH

The prominent quartet of Land Girl's Luck, Loki's Mischief, Carrigmoorna Rowan and He'llstopatthetop for traffic problems 2-3 out

NOTE

Holy Legend for any signs of reluctance at fences given she refused two runs ago

NOTE

Majestic Moment for fitness after 144-day layoff despite coming home alone last time at Fontwell

4:40 — Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Dyno Dave likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Saint Cyr De Pail led; the map had Dyno Dave in front.

Saint Cyr De Pail won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dyno Dave

Prominent · 1

Mahler Moon

Midfield · 1

Saint Cyr De Pail

Hold Up · 0

None

Dyno Dave will take this race by the scruff of the neck from the start, with only three runners ensuring no early pressure on his lead. Saint Cyr De Pail and Mahler Moon will track behind but neither has the natural pace to challenge Dyno Dave's supremacy in the opening stages. The sustained gallop will suit the leader who can dictate terms throughout, potentially stretching the field approaching the final circuit. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can travel kindly in the early pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dyno Dave Wire-to-Wire

45% probability

If Dyno Dave jumps cleanly and maintains his rhythm throughout

Henderson's charge can control the tempo completely and kick for home when it suits, with his recent good ground victory proving he handles these conditions. The lack of pace pressure allows him to conserve energy for a decisive move.

Dyno DaveMahler MoonSaint Cyr De Pail

Mahler Moon Late Surge

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly searching and Dyno Dave weakens

O'Brien's runner has the best recent form and can pick up the pieces if the leader's stamina gives way over this extended trip. His prominent style keeps him in touch to pounce when others tire.

Mahler MoonDyno DaveSaint Cyr De Pail

Saint Cyr Strong Stayer

15% probability

If the trip brings significant improvement from Saint Cyr De Pail

The step up to three miles could unlock untapped stamina reserves, allowing him to grind past tiring rivals in the final stages. His recent third here suggests he handles the track despite the poor finishing position.

Saint Cyr De PailMahler MoonDyno Dave

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If all three runners struggle with the combination of trip and pace

The race becomes a survival test with jumping errors or stamina failures opening the door for any horse still travelling. Form and ratings become secondary to who can simply complete the course most efficiently.

Mahler MoonSaint Cyr De PailDyno Dave

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dyno Dave's jumping under pressure - any significant errors could end his front-running advantage quickly

WATCH

Saint Cyr De Pail's stamina reserves over this extended trip - completely unproven beyond 2m4f

NOTE

Mahler Moon's ability to quicken when the pace lifts - needs to show tactical speed to capitalize on his form edge

WATCH

The overall pace given small field size - could become stop-start affair that negates natural running styles

NOTE

James Bowen's tactics on Dyno Dave - whether he restrains early or lets his mount bowl along naturally

5:10 — Totnes And Bridgetown Races Company Ltd Open Hunters' Chase

3m · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners

Daisy Yeats likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Daisy Yeats led, as the map showed.

Stumps Or Slips won at 5.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Daisy Yeats

Prominent · 3

Assassins LullabyMr GlassCorporal Jackjones

Midfield · 3

High Game RoyalWindanceGateau De Miel

Hold Up · 3

Franco De PortMacklinStumps Or Slips

Daisy Yeats is the only confirmed front runner but faces sustainability questions given her 340-day absence and poor recent form. Several prominent runners including Assassins Lullaby, High Game Royal, and Windance could press forward if Daisy Yeats falters early. The pace is likely to be genuine but not frenetic over this 3m trip, with the tempo building gradually through the middle stages. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and closers who can pick off tired leaders, as the prominent pack may go too hard trying to exploit any early pace collapse.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Throughout

45% probability

If Daisy Yeats maintains the lead and several prominent runners track her closely creating sustained pace.

The genuine gallop over 3m will set up perfectly for the proven staying hold-up horses to unleash their finishing kicks. Franco De Port and Macklin, both tactical hold-up performers, can time their challenges to perfection in the final half-mile.

MacklinFranco De PortStumps Or SlipsGateau De Miel

Early Pace Collapse

30% probability

If Daisy Yeats stops quickly due to her long absence and no other horse takes up the running effectively.

The race becomes a tactical crawl with bunched field turning for home, suiting prominent runners with tactical speed. High Game Royal and the improving types can quicken off the slower gallop better than the pure stayers.

High Game RoyalMacklinFranco De PortStumps Or Slips

Mid-Race Acceleration

15% probability

If the pace is steady early but one of the hold-up horses makes a bold mid-race move to shake up the field.

This creates a stop-start tempo that can catch out horses not traveling well, favoring those with race fitness and adaptability. Macklin's recent form and Franco De Port's class could see them dictate when the race begins in earnest.

MacklinFranco De PortHigh Game RoyalStumps Or Slips

Pace Duel Develops

10% probability

If multiple prominent runners including Assassins Lullaby and High Game Royal engage in early pace pressure with Daisy Yeats.

The resulting fast early fractions will ensure a strong gallop but may compromise the prominent runners' finishing kicks. Pure closers like Stumps Or Slips who can stay off the early pace battle gain maximum advantage.

Stumps Or SlipsFranco De PortMacklinGateau De Miel

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Daisy Yeats may stop quickly early due to 340-day absence, creating tactical chaos if no other horse takes over

WATCH

Franco De Port's jumping under pressure after long layoff could be vulnerable if asked to quicken late

NOTE

Macklin's weight advantage and course familiarity make him dangerous if getting first run on his rivals

WATCH

Several prominent runners may go too hard early trying to capitalize on Daisy Yeats' likely weakness

NOTE

Stumps Or Slips needs monitoring for market support given his excellent record on good ground

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 7 April 2026.

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