1:58 — Winter Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Beginners Steeplechase
2m½f · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners
Mo Ghille Mar likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Mo Ghille Mar led, as the map showed.
Manoir De Mirande won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mo Ghille Mar
Prominent · 1
Minella Post
Midfield · 2
Glen KilnManoir De Mirande
Hold Up · 2
TakenasredTatateo
Mo Ghille Mar led in five of its last six runs and is the only confirmed front-runner in this field; the pace should fall to it unless the jockey chooses otherwise, and it will set an uncontested tempo. Glen Kiln and Manoir De Mirande are both genuine prominent types but neither has the recent record to force the issue, so they are likely to settle in midfield and wait rather than fight for the lead. This field contains more natural pace than can occupy the front simultaneously, leaving one or more of these hold-up types to arrive late if the early fractions suit. A race run this way favours horses that can track the leader or steal the race from close quarters in the final furlong; a horse that can sit handy and quicken will have the best of it.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mo Ghille Mar leads and holds
Scenario
If Mo Ghille Mar gets the lead and the early pace stays steady enough to tire rivals.
Mo Ghille Mar will jump off and control the race from the front, with its recent record of leading in 5 of 6 giving it a clear tactical advantage; Tatateo and Takenasred will track from behind but lack the turn of foot to pass a horse already in command. This shape suits a confirmed front-runner with the experience to manage a two-mile-and-a-half steeplechase on good ground.
Mo Ghille MarTatateoTakenasred
B
Late run catches the leader
Scenario
If the early pace collapses or dries up, and Tatateo — the highest-rated horse in the race at 117 — can finish strongly from hold-up.
Tatateo races in its natural hold-up style and waits for the race to develop before striking hard in the closing stages; with only Mo Ghille Mar showing genuine pace credentials, the field will likely lack the tempo to soften up heavy opponents. Tatateo's rating and recent placed finish give it the quality to win if allowed to run its own race.
TatateoGlen KilnManoir De Mirande
C
Stalker picks up the pieces
Scenario
If Glen Kiln or Manoir De Mirande force their way to a prominent pitch early and the leader tires badly.
One of the prominent-running types breaks ranks and harries Mo Ghille Mar from the second or third position, forcing a pace hot enough to damage the leader; the stalker then has enough left in the tank to pull clear when the pressure tells. This suits horses that race positively without necessarily needing the lead, but both are rated below Tatateo and lack the placed-form evidence to justify their selection over the higher-rated runners.
Manoir De MirandeGlen KilnMo Ghille Mar
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Tatateo is 7 pounds clear of Mo Ghille Mar on official ratings and will finish strongly if the early pace does not set up; do not underestimate a horse the market clearly respects.
WATCH
Glen Kiln pulled hard last time and a keen-going horse in a field short of genuine early pace could boil over and waste energy; watch how it settles in the opening half-mile.
NOTE
Manoir De Mirande has form credentials over this ground and distance but may find itself crowded out by other prominent runners seeking to race prominently; its chance will depend on whether it can secure a racing position suited to its age and experience.
KEY
Mo Ghille Mar has not run for 29 days despite being a strong recent favourite; if ring rust shows, the race could be wide open for any of the three horses rated above 110 to take advantage.
Antrim Coast won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Walks The Talk
Prominent · 2
Straight JohnFort Dino
Midfield · 2
Our SoldierBig Tom
Hold Up · 2
KainsbourgAntrim Coast
Walks The Talk is the only horse with a recent record of leading — it set the pace in its last run and has done so in five of its last six outings — and should dictate from the front if connections choose to send it there. Fort Dino and Straight John are both prominent racers but lack the same pattern of command; they are more likely to press rather than lead. The pace should therefore be uncontested in the early stages, with Walks The Talk able to settle into a rhythm on Good ground over 2m5f without meaningful pressure. Horses that need to come late will find this a test: front-runners and stalkers, who can track or override Walks The Talk's cruising tempo, hold the advantage in this shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Walks The Talk leads and holds
Scenario
If Walks The Talk jumps out and establishes an unchallenged lead from the off
The one confirmed front-runner in the field will control the tempo on ground that suits it and course form of 1W2P over 20–24f. Stamina over the extra half-furlong will separate the challengers in the straight, and a horse already in possession has every chance to repel late efforts on a track that does not heavily reward closers.
Walks The TalkFort DinoKainsbourg
B
Stalker picks up the pieces
Scenario
If Walks The Talk sets a steady rather than aggressive pace and a stalker can track without expending effort
Fort Dino or Kainsbourg, both with recent placed form on this ground and willing to race prominently, could sit just behind and strike in the straight when Walks The Talk tires; this suits horses good enough to travel into contention without leading from two furlongs out.
KainsbourgFort DinoWalks The Talk
C
Closer arrives late
Scenario
If the pace collapses in the middle and a horse can steal ground in the closing stages
Antrim Coast has won once in recent starts and did not fade when last over 22f on Good at this venue, and might exploit a slow run if midfield horses fail to press home; however, the field lacks the pace chaos usually required for this pattern to succeed over a staying distance.
Antrim CoastKainsbourgFort Dino
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Antrim Coast carries 11lb more than Our Soldier despite superior official rating; if the handicap is wrong and the pace falters, it has the rating to win.
NOTE
Walks The Talk races out of position if forced back by rivals; it is a confirmed front-runner and will struggle if others take control early, so monitor how it is ridden at the first fence.
WATCH
Big Tom has not raced in nearly a year and is unproven at this distance with a first-time jockey on a 7lb claim; only respect it if the market shows unexpected support.
NOTE
Fort Dino and Straight John will both be keen for a place on the lead; if Walks The Talk does not assert early, a contested pace could emerge that does not suit front-runners.
3:10 — Malone Windows Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Steeplechase
3m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Pourquoi Poi likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Anodandawink led; the map had Pourquoi Poi in front.
Pourquoi Poi won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Pourquoi Poi
Prominent · 2
AnodandawinkJukebox Johnny
Midfield · 2
Clonbury BridgeCharlie Luciano
Hold Up · 4
SphagnumGatsby GreyTullybegSmallcraftwarning
Pourquoi Poi is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and will likely set the pace if allowed, though at only 101 official rating it is far from a dominant force. The real tactical issue is that Clonbury Bridge, Charlie Luciano, Anodandawink and Jukebox Johnny are all natural prominent racers who will want to race closer to the action, but there simply aren't enough forward positions for all of them — this will create a bunched, contested middle order as they jostle for position behind whatever pace emerges. Smallcraftwarning, the top-rated hold-up horse, has form on this ground (won three of his last six runs on good turf over fences) and has been ridden patiently by a yard in strong form; a true closer who lets the traffic sort itself out will benefit when the front-runners fade in the closing stages. Hold-up runners suit this race: the pace will be messy rather than honest, and stamina over three and a half furlongs will prove more valuable than early feet.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer outwars tired field
Scenario
If Smallcraftwarning settles in midfield and the prominent types waste energy scrapping for position ahead
Pourquoi Poi will set a moderate gallop but tire in the final furlong; Smallcraftwarning's patient tactics and proven form on this ground make it the natural finisher when the race fragments. The hold-up profile suits a steeplechase where pace is contested but never truly honest.
SmallcraftwarningTullybegSphagnum
B
Prominent racer grabs the race
Scenario
If one of Anodandawink, Charlie Luciano or Jukebox Johnny settles better than expected and finds room before the last
Anodandawink has recent winning form (three wins in its last eleven outings on good turf) and the trainer is active; if it can avoid getting squeezed in the midfield melee and quicken two out, it has the speed to hold on. The prominent racer that keeps its position will have a tactical edge over late arrivals.
AnodandawinkCharlie LucianoJukebox Johnny
C
Front-runner holds against the odds
Scenario
If Pourquoi Poi can steal clear early and Gatsby Grey or another hold-up type makes a mistake at a crucial fence
Pourquoi Poi has led in only two of its last six runs and lacks the class to dominate; holding on would require the field to collapse and the runner-up to falter. Gatsby Grey, despite a higher official rating of 137, has not won in eleven recent outings and raced out of its natural style in a back-running setup, making it an unlikely threat to the winner.
Pourquoi PoiGatsby Grey
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Anodandawink has strong winning form on good turf but has been pulling hard in recent runs; if Peter Smithers cannot settle it early, it will waste energy in a battle for position and tire before the last.
WATCH
Clonbury Bridge and Jukebox Johnny are both prominent racers returning after significant absences (138 days and 69 days); either could struggle to find the racing fitness to hold position against fresher rivals in the final furlong.
NOTE
Gatsby Grey carries the highest official rating but zero wins in eleven recent starts; despite the high class mark, it is racing badly out of its natural style and should be discounted from the winner's angle.
NOTE
The four prominent types — Clonbury Bridge, Charlie Luciano, Anodandawink and Jukebox Johnny — cannot all get their preferred position, guaranteeing a contested, untidy middle race; this disorder will benefit a true closer.
3:50 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m · Good · MDN · 12 runners
Red Acres Georgie likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Red Acres Georgie led, as the map showed.
Ash Hobbs won at 1.91 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Red Acres Georgie
Prominent · 2
ShadonaghGoodgollymissholly
Midfield · 4
Marie D'angosThe Hidden KingdomMoney ShufflerSea Coral
Red Acres Georgie is the likeliest to set the early pace, though it races out of its natural role — it led in only two of its last four starts and has not won on the turf. Goodgollymissholly, proven on good ground with a recent win, will race prominent but is unlikely to press hard for the lead. The field contains several horses — Sea Coral and Money Shuffler — whose best form comes from holding up and finishing, yet neither has the recent record or tactical position to dictate the tempo from the front. If Red Acres Georgie takes a hold at the start, the pace will be modest and uncontested; if it does not, the race will lack a clear engine and the tempo will collapse into a crawl. This lack of genuine front-running strength favours hold-up runners who can conserve energy and strike late, provided they get clear passage at the business end. The true hold-up types — Mistakenforanother, Whispering Hopes, Theboss'sdaughter — are more likely to get their natural position than the prominent runners are to get theirs, and that asymmetry gives the closing profile a structural edge.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer arrives late
Scenario
If Red Acres Georgie fails to press or the pace never catches fire
A steady or faltering tempo leaves the front runners boxed in or already tired by the final hurdle. Hold-up runners enjoy clear air in the straight and pick off rivals in the run-in, a profile that suits this field better than it suits most maidens.
MistakenforanotherWhispering HopesSea Coral
B
Goodgollymissholly holds on
Scenario
If the prominent runners establish a rhythm early and Goodgollymissholly dictates from the second hurdle onwards
Goodgollymissholly, the form pick with a recent win and five successes from six starts on good going, can use its experience to control the race and hold the closers at bay over the final two hurdles. Gordon Elliott's yard is in form, and the stable has an 6-from-47 return at the track in the past fourteen days.
GoodgollymisshollyRed Acres GeorgieShadonagh
C
Front-runner outstays field
Scenario
If Red Acres Georgie settles and builds an unassailable lead before the final hurdle
Red Acres Georgie, though racing out of role as a front-runner, has pace and experience at this trip and could cross the line alone if the closers never get within striking distance. This scenario requires Red Acres Georgie to race more positively than recent evidence suggests, and for the hold-up runners to be caught flat-footed or to lack finishing pace.
Red Acres GeorgieGoodgollymisshollyShadonagh
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Goodgollymissholly is the form pick with recent course form and the most recent win in the field; if it settles and dictates, it will be very hard to pass late.
WATCH
Red Acres Georgie is expected to lead by virtue of yard and rider habit, not its own recent record; if it fails to stride clear early or fights a prolonged battle at the front, it will be vulnerable in the straight.
WATCH
Mistakenforanother and Whispering Hopes both hold up but carry no obvious injury or absence concern; both are live threats in a slowly-run race and should not be underestimated if the early pace collapses.
NOTE
Marie D'angos and The Hidden Kingdom are unproven quantities with 188 days and no recent race history respectively; ignore both unless odds become prohibitive.
NOTE
The going is good throughout the card; no pace degradation is expected, and form on soft ground is less reliable than turf evidence.
4:25 — Powerscreen New England Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle
2m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Crystabel likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Crystabel led, as the map showed.
Not In A Hurry won at 9.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Crystabel
Prominent · 2
FirebrandMight Be The One
Midfield · 3
Cleopatra's NeedleMissus BeetonNot In A Hurry
Hold Up · 4
No Looking BackDairy ForceAnnie's AngelKilt
Crystabel led in four of its last six runs and is the only confirmed front-runner in this field; if it gets to the front, the pace will be uncontested and the race will be run to suit a horse that can track or close from behind. However, this race contains more genuine pace types than can all secure their natural positions — Cleopatra's Needle, Missus Beeton, and Not In A Hurry are all true hold-up or near-the-pace runners compressed into midfield by the weight of similar types in the handicap, meaning several will be forced to race more prominently than ideal and will likely fight for position in the early hurdles. The field's actual tactical shape will depend on whether Crystabel leads unchallenged or whether the pressed hold-up horses create a contested pace; either way, hold-up runners with the class to finish strongly will have the advantage, while front-runners relying on uncontested fractions face a tougher task.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer picks up tired field
Scenario
If Crystabel leads but a pressured pace blunts its advantage and the field bunches entering the home straight.
Annie's AngelDairy ForceAnnie's AngelDairy Force
B
Crystabel holds on despite pressure
Scenario
If Crystabel breaks well and dictates a strong gallop that none of the midfield types can match, forcing them to chase fruitlessly.
A genuinely uncontested lead will suit Crystabel's profile and allow it to dictate the race shape; the pressed hold-up horses will exhaust themselves chasing from further back and will lack the finishing kick to threaten the leader.
CrystabelFirebrandMight Be The One
C
Firebrand seizes control
Scenario
If Firebrand breaks prominently from the off and forces Crystabel to race out of its comfort zone before overhauling it.
Firebrand (won on good ground, 7 of 9 runs on similar turf, pulled hard recently) has the class and recent record to seize the initiative early; if Crystabel is forced to race beyond a steady pace, Firebrand's superior finish could prevail.
FirebrandMight Be The OneKilt
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Annie's Angel: recent run and fresh form on good ground, likely to be ridden for a late run and dangerous if the front-runners fade.
WATCH
Cleopatra's Needle, Missus Beeton, Not In A Hurry: three hold-up types chasing for the same space in midfield may cause interference or leave themselves too far back to threaten.
NOTE
Firebrand: pulls hard and capable of seizing control early; if Crystabel is forced to chase it, the field may split into two distinct groups with no recall.
NOTE
Crystabel: sole confirmed front-runner; uncontested lead will suit it, but a truly contested early pace will tire it before the final hurdle.
Ancient Myth led; the map had Fairy Meadow in front.
Granlahan won at 1.91 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Fairy Meadow
Prominent · 3
GranlahanPahlaviChampagne Dawn
Midfield · 5
JuralityCertamenCrypto CrashLiceoVairue
Hold Up · 7
Ancient MythWee FallonHesasmoothoperatorUndertheinfluenceZaryagleScary AskariChesterbaylad
Fairy Meadow is the likeliest to lead, though it has led in only one of its last three runs and is not a confirmed front-runner; the race should unfold as a contest rather than an uncontested pace if it gets there. Granlahan and Pahlavi are genuine prominent types from yards that send runners forward regularly, and will press hard for position; Champagne Dawn also belongs in this group but has faded in finishes. The field holds more pace than one horse can command — Vairue is a true hold-up type unlikely to get its natural rear position, and Chesterbaylad and Scary Askari are also hold-up horses who will be pushed into closer order. A steadier pace with strong tracking from the midfield will suit the best-rated horses; this shape favours runners capable of stalking and striking from two or three lengths back, over one built on early dominance or one that needs late-race scrambling room.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalkers pick up honest pace
Scenario
If Fairy Meadow leads but is pressed by Granlahan and Pahlavi, establishing a genuinely competitive gallop through the first half
Jurality, Granlahan and Pahlavi will fight out the early lead and dictate a steady rhythm; runners like Undertheinfluence, Liceo and Certamen can then track from midfield and pick off the tiring pace-setters at the last two hurdles. Jurality is 11lb clear on official ratings and won once and placed five times at this trip and going; it has won at this course.
JuralityGranlahanLiceoUndertheinfluence
B
Pahlavi's fitness exploited
Scenario
If Pahlavi runs cold and travels strongly through the middle, finding extra when Fairy Meadow tires turning for home
Pahlavi has placed twice in six runs on good going and won once; it ran only yesterday but is fresh enough and rates well enough to capitalise on a flagging early pace. The race-fit angle and Danny Gilligan's record with sharp finishers make this a live alternative.
PahlaviGranlahanChampagne Dawn
C
Front-runner holds on
Scenario
If Fairy Meadow settles and skips clear of Granlahan and Champagne Dawn in the middle, opening a gap the field cannot close
Fairy Meadow would need to settle to its strengths and escape a genuine contest; it is age 9, well-handicapped at 164lb on a rating of 91, and John Joseph Hanlon's yard is not in form (0 wins in 17 runs in 14 days). This shape asks the horse to do something it has not shown recently and relies on the field failing to organise.
Fairy MeadowGranlahanCertamen
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pahlavi: run yesterday but race-fit and well-weighted; if it travels smoothly through the middle and Fairy Meadow tires, it will be the closest thing to a sure threat.
WATCH
Champagne Dawn: prominent type that fades; likely to set a soft pace early and then retreat, gifting the race to stalkers — do not follow it out of the stalls.
NOTE
Jurality: best-rated horse but fades in finishes; this race shape suits it only if the pace is honest and sets up a run-in duel — short of that, it may have no answer.
WATCH
Wee Fallon: pulled hard in recent outings and remains unsettled; the hold-up profile asks it to relax, which the pulling episodes suggest it cannot yet do reliably.
5:35 — Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race
2m · Good · DEFAULT · 10 runners
Thrill A Minute likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
S T Hamo led; the map had Thrill A Minute in front.
Streamhill won at 12.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Thrill A Minute
Prominent · 3
S T HamoEleen AlanaGaelic Seer
Midfield · 3
ModconMiss KobeHi Handsome
Hold Up · 3
StreamhillSome See StarsGratitudeforgrace
Thrill A Minute led in its only recent run and is the likeliest to set the pace from the off, but this is a confined field where that lead will be genuinely contested. Eleen Alana and Gaelic Seer, both with recent prominent runs, will press hard early; Streamhill and Some See Stars shape as hold-up types likely to wait. The pace should be steady to moderate rather than frantic because Thrill A Minute has only one recent run to establish a pattern and the pressing pack contains no confirmed front-runners with strong recent records of their own. This race favours a stalking profile over a closing one—the early pace will soften enough to reward a horse that can settle in touch and quicken at the second-last, rather than one obliged to come from deep. The field contains more horses capable of racing prominently than can all secure it; Eleen Alana and Gaelic Seer are most likely to force the real running, though both have shown they fade in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Thrill A Minute holds on
Scenario
If Thrill A Minute jumps off with purpose and the pressers behind it (Eleen Alana, Gaelic Seer) cancel each other out in a muddled early battle.
Thrill A Minute will establish a clear lead and rely on the softened pace in the middle stages to preserve enough in hand for the finish; a lone leader often has an advantage in a small field where rivals are more concerned with beating each other than pursuing it.
Thrill A MinuteEleen AlanaGaelic Seer
B
Stalker runs down leader
Scenario
If Streamhill or Some See Stars settles within two lengths of the early pace and finds a gear at the second-last hurdle.
Thrill A Minute will set a reasonable tempo through the middle, but the hold-up horse will have covered less ground and fresher legs for a decisive run into the final flight; Streamhill has won on this course and going and the profile suits its recent pattern.
StreamhillSome See StarsThrill A Minute
C
Early chaos reshapes field
Scenario
If Eleen Alana and Gaelic Seer both jump off aggressively and trade places multiple times in the opening mile, fragmenting the field and exhausting each other.
One of the midfield types—S T Hamo or Hi Handsome—could slip through a disorganised early battle and build a decisive lead on the back stretch; this requires significant early errors from the front-runners and a measure of fortune in the jumping.
S T HamoHi HandsomeThrill A Minute
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Eleen Alana and Gaelic Seer will fight hard for the early lead and could burn each other out before the second-last hurdle, handing the race to an opportunist stalker.
WATCH
Streamhill has not raced in 15 days and the 376-day absence for Hi Handsome makes both potential returners vulnerable to a horse with fresher recent experience like Thrill A Minute.
NOTE
Some See Stars (151 days) and Hi Handsome (376 days) have both had extended breaks; if either shows ring rust in the early jumping, the shape will collapse in favour of the more frequently-raced runners.
KEY
Miss Kobe and Modcon are both unsealed for the season with no public form; if either jumps out competitively or unluckily inconveniences the pace-setters, it could derail a perfectly-framed early battle.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.