All The GirlsJoyful TidingsUnidosAbsoluteassignment
Nakamura is the most likely pace-setter with prominent early tendencies, though Breaking Dawn and several other prominent runners could press forward creating a competitive early gallop. The large field of 13 runners with multiple prominent types suggests a solid but not frantic early pace, with the tempo likely quickening from the 2f pole as the field compresses. The pace should be honest enough to set up the race for those with tactical speed who can position handily. This race shape favours prominent runners and those with the pace to track the leaders closely rather than pure hold-up horses who may find too much to do.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Battle Royale
45% probability
If Nakamura, Breaking Dawn and Stone Bear all go forward together creating competitive fractions
The early pace becomes solid with multiple speed horses engaged, setting up a battle between the handy horses with tactical speed. Those able to sit just off the pace in prime striking positions will have the edge over pure front-runners and back-markers alike.
Stone BearSovereign CryDancing SaxonVenetian Star
B
Nakamura Leads Unopposed
30% probability
If Nakamura gets an uncontested lead with other prominent runners settling behind
The pace becomes more sedate allowing Nakamura to dictate terms and potentially steal a march on the field. Front-runners and prominent racers who travel easily get first run on anything coming from behind.
NakamuraMidnight DuskBreaking DawnNazario
C
Hold-up Horse Swoop
15% probability
If the early pace becomes overly strong with prominent runners going too fast too early
The speed horses tire in the closing stages opening the door for patient hold-up types to come with strong late runs. The pace collapse favours those with finishing kicks who can pick up the pieces.
All The GirlsUnidosJoyful TidingsAbsoluteassignment
D
Surprise Speed Duel
10% probability
If unexpected pace emerges from Venetian Star or Dancing Saxon joining the early battle
Multiple horses commit to racing prominently early creating faster fractions than anticipated, compromising the chances of the expected pace-setters. This chaotic pace dynamic could allow a mid-division runner to emerge.
Coincidental GloryNazarioMidnight DuskStone Bear
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Nakamura could get too easy a lead if other prominent runners don't engage early enough, making him very hard to peg back
WATCH
Breaking Dawn's 82-day layoff combined with the pressure of leading the market could see fitness or temperament issues surface
WATCH
The large field of 13 could create traffic problems for hold-up horses like All The Girls and Unidos in the straight
NOTE
Stone Bear's recent course win and current form progression makes him dangerous if getting into contention
NOTE
Dancing Saxon's fitness after 126 days off will be tested early given his prominent racing style
5:37 — Maher Tractor Sales Handicap (Div I)
6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 16 runners
I'm Spartacus likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Mini Cotai led; the map had I'm Spartacus in front.
Dervo Annie won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
I'm Spartacus
Prominent · 5
RosatoJampa LingHero Of The HourStep Back In TimeEl Fontenaro
Midfield · 5
Dandy LandLuminessaWhatswrongnowMini CotaiSon Of Wind
Hold Up · 5
The Love MachineSayonaraDervo AnnieSpiced GoldAnother Nice'day
I'm Spartacus leads a small prominent group including Rosato, Hero Of The Hour, Step Back In Time, Jampa Ling and El Fontenaro, but no confirmed strong pace-setter creates significant early tempo. The large field of 16 runners contains multiple hold-up horses (The Love Machine, Sayonara, Dervo Annie, Whatswrongnow, Spiced Gold, Son Of Wind, Another Nice'day, Mini Cotai) who will be tracking from off the pace. With softer ground conditions and a moderate early gallop likely, this creates a tactical affair where horses need to be positioned handy turning for home. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can sit close enough to strike but avoid getting caught in traffic late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Moderate Pace Suits Handy
45% probability
If I'm Spartacus sets a steady tempo without serious pressure early
The prominent group gets first run on the field and holds off late challengers on the testing ground. Horses positioned handy can kick clear before the hold-up brigade gets organized.
I'm SpartacusJampa LingRosatoHero Of The Hour
B
Strong Finish From Behind
30% probability
If the early pace collapses into a crawl through halfway
The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole where hold-up horses with Colin Keane and Shane Foley get superior position. Fresh legs from the back prove decisive in a bunched finish.
Dervo AnnieThe Love MachineSayonaraEl Fontenaro
C
Tactical Battle Unfolds
15% probability
If no horse wants to make the running early and jockeys play cat-and-mouse
The pace becomes stop-start which creates a messy tactical affair with multiple moves. Experienced riders and horses who can quicken from any position hold the key.
Step Back In TimeHero Of The HourWhatswrongnowSon Of Wind
D
Surprise Front Runner Emerges
10% probability
If one of the prominent horses goes forward unexpectedly to force the tempo
Rosato or El Fontenaro decide to press I'm Spartacus and create a genuine gallop that suits closers. The early leaders fold and backmarkers with tactical speed benefit.
Mini CotaiSpiced GoldAnother Nice'dayLuminessa
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
I'm Spartacus faces more early pressure than expected if Rosato or El Fontenaro decide to press forward
WATCH
The hold-up horses may struggle to get clear runs in the home straight with 16 runners and potential traffic issues
NOTE
Colin Keane's booking of Dervo Annie suggests stable confidence in the filly's chances from off the pace
WATCH
Several horses showing fading tendencies recently including Spiced Gold and Another Nice'day who may struggle late
NOTE
Multiple claiming riders in action could lead to tactical errors or poor positioning choices in the home straight
6:10 — Maher Tractor Sales Handicap (Div II)
6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Alnofoor likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Monastere led; the map had Alnofoor in front.
Rodeeve won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Alnofoor
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 11
UkiyoDue In JuneDubai OpulenceRodeeveAndoskyGlen BreezeReponse FinaleJackandthefoxMonastereLivingston RangeBel Espoir
Hold Up · 5
One Cool BearDynamic ForcePrime SignHooves Your DaddyVerhoyen
Alnofoor is the only confirmed front-runner in this 17-runner handicap and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable gallop without pressure from early rivals. With 16 hold-up horses behind him, this creates a classic scenario where the pace-setter controls the race tempo throughout the 6 furlongs. The large field of hold-up runners will bunch up in behind, creating traffic problems and positioning battles in the straight. This race shape strongly favours either the lone pace-setter Alnofoor or any hold-up horse that can secure a clear passage and time their challenge perfectly.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Wins
45% probability
If Alnofoor maintains his lead unchallenged and the hold-up horses leave their runs too late on the soft ground.
The veteran gets first run on his rivals and stays on strongly as the closers struggle to make up ground in time. His recent wins at similar distances and going give him the tactical edge.
AlnofoorPrime SignVerhoyenUkiyo
B
Late Surge Succeeds
30% probability
If the prominent pace allows strong finishers to close from the back and traffic clears in the straight.
Prime Sign and Verhoyen benefit from their proven finishing kicks, with Prime Sign's recent win and Verhoyen's consistent placing record making them the primary threats. The soft ground aids their sustained gallops.
Prime SignVerhoyenHooves Your DaddyOne Cool Bear
C
Youth Prevails Late
15% probability
If the younger horses' stamina tells in the final furlong as older rivals tire on testing ground.
Hooves Your Daddy and One Cool Bear, both three-year-olds with recent good form, outstay their elders in a driving finish. Their lighter weights and upward curves make them dangerous.
Hooves Your DaddyOne Cool BearGlen BreezeDue In June
D
Outsider Strikes
10% probability
If traffic problems eliminate the fancied runners and an unconsidered horse gets a clean run through.
The large field creates chaos in the straight, allowing a horse like Jackandthefox or Glen Breeze to sneak through on the inside rail. Their lower ratings become irrelevant if the race falls apart.
JackandthefoxGlen BreezeAndoskyLivingston Range
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Monitor Alnofoor's early fractions - if he goes too fast early he'll be vulnerable to late closers
WATCH
Watch for traffic problems in the straight with 17 runners bunching up behind the lone leader
NOTE
Prime Sign's headgear change and recent win make him the most likely closer to challenge Alnofoor
WATCH
Several horses marked as fading in finish could cause interference if weakening in the straight
NOTE
The three-year-olds carry significant weight advantages which could prove decisive in a tight finish
6:45 — Pat's Carpets Race
7f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Zodiac Bear likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Cowardofthecounty won at 2.75 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Zodiac Bear
Prominent · 3
Moss TuckerFrescobaldiQueen Of The Bogs
Midfield · 2
Ocean's BreathLove Billy Boy
Hold Up · 3
CowardofthecountyTolebiTina's Indian
Zodiac Bear will likely lead with Love Billy Boy and the prominent brigade (Moss Tucker, Frescobaldi, Ocean's Breath, Queen Of The Bogs) tracking close behind, creating a moderate early gallop over 7 furlongs. The lack of multiple confirmed front-runners means Zodiac Bear can dictate terms without excessive pressure, though the cluster of prominent runners will keep him honest. With three hold-up horses (Tina's Indian, Cowardofthecounty, Tolebi) relying on late runs, the pace scenario should develop into a sustained drive from the 2-furlong pole. This tactical setup favours prominent racers who can sit close enough to strike but avoid the front-running pressure.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runner Dominance
45% probability
If Zodiac Bear sets manageable fractions and the prominent pack stays in touch
The race becomes a tactical battle from 2f out where horses like Ocean's Breath and Frescobaldi can time their challenges perfectly. Hold-up horses find insufficient pace to close the gap effectively.
Ocean's BreathFrescobaldiZodiac BearLove Billy Boy
B
Hold-Up Horse Surge
30% probability
If the prominent pack goes too hard trying to track Zodiac Bear early
The pace becomes unsustainable for the front group, allowing Tina's Indian and Cowardofthecounty to unleash devastating late runs. The experienced Gavin Ryan and Declan McDonogh can exploit the pace collapse.
Tina's IndianCowardofthecountyTolebiQueen Of The Bogs
C
Front-Runner Wire Job
15% probability
If Zodiac Bear gets uncontested early fractions and kicks clear
Ben Coen can steal crucial lengths turning for home while the prominent pack hesitates and hold-up horses face an impossible task. Recent winner Ocean's Breath provides the main threat but may lack the tactical speed.
Zodiac BearOcean's BreathLove Billy BoyFrescobaldi
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If multiple prominent runners engage Zodiac Bear too early creating a stop-start rhythm
The race fragments with no clear pace advantage, turning into a messy sprint where class and current form become decisive. Queen Of The Bogs returning from a long break could surprise at big odds.
Queen Of The BogsMoss TuckerFrescobaldiTina's Indian
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Zodiac Bear's one-day turnaround could cause stamina issues in the final furlong despite his class advantage
WATCH
Queen Of The Bogs returning from 294-day absence with Shane Foley up - any market support would be significant given the layoff
NOTE
Love Billy Boy's 89-day break and trainer's poor recent form versus his strong historical course record at this distance
WATCH
If Tina's Indian and Cowardofthecounty both get prominent early positions it would completely change the expected pace dynamic
NOTE
Ocean's Breath and Frescobaldi both drawn to get good positions - watch for either tracking the leader too closely early
7:20 — Dino Day At Fairyhouse 8th July Handicap
1m6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 21 runners
Voice Of Reason likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Boxing Great and Not Just Any Eagle led; the map had Voice Of Reason in front.
Night Moon won at 7.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Voice Of Reason
Prominent · 7
Not Just Any EagleSlurricaneJust Keep FlyingZoffmanBoxing GreatCarthusianGranville Street
Midfield · 7
Sanctity Of SpaceMaeve BrennanParadise LostCoulstys WayJr MahonGuy's GirlBruant
Hold Up · 6
Alba ChiaraEarthwatchDutch GoldHarry's LegacyNight MoonHigh Honour
Voice Of Reason is the only confirmed front runner in this field of 21, meaning he can dictate terms from the front without pressure. The prominent runners like Not Just Any Eagle, Just Keep Flying, Slurricane, and Boxing Great will likely sit just behind in the second rank, but won't challenge Voice Of Reason early over this staying trip. With a large field spreading out behind and many hold-up horses including Alba Chiara, Dutch Gold, and Night Moon needing to weave through traffic, the lack of early pace pressure creates a tactical setup. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the lone leader and hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks who can navigate the large field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Running
40% probability
If Voice Of Reason gets an easy lead and maintains stamina reserves
Voice Of Reason controls the gallop throughout and has enough left to repel challers, while prominent trackers benefit from the strong pace. The large field gets strung out behind the moderate tempo.
Voice Of ReasonJust Keep FlyingBoxing GreatNot Just Any Eagle
B
Late Surge Prevails
35% probability
If the moderate pace allows closers to unleash devastating finishes
The lack of early pressure means hold-up horses can time their runs perfectly through the big field as the pace quickens late. Alba Chiara and Night Moon can pick their way through with superior finishing speed.
Alba ChiaraNight MoonHarry's LegacyEarthwatch
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
20% probability
If a prominent runner perfectly judges the moment to challenge Voice Of Reason
Just Keep Flying or Boxing Great sit ideally placed to strike turning for home when Voice Of Reason's stamina wanes. The tactical position proves decisive as they avoid traffic problems.
Just Keep FlyingBoxing GreatSlurricaneGranville Street
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
5% probability
If Voice Of Reason stops suddenly and creates a sprint finish
The front runner's stamina gives out dramatically, turning the race into a cavalry charge where any horse with a turn of foot can win. Traffic problems intensify as the field bunches up.
Sanctity Of SpaceMaeve BrennanCarthusianParadise Lost
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Voice Of Reason must handle the step up in trip as his recent form has all been over shorter distances
WATCH
Traffic problems will be crucial with 21 runners - watch how the hold-up horses navigate the big field in the straight
NOTE
Several horses returning from long breaks including Night Moon and Sanctity Of Space whose fitness levels are unknown
WATCH
The going has been called Good to Yielding all day but started as Good to Soft - monitor if it's riding faster than advertised
NOTE
Watch for late market moves on the J S Bolger runner Maeve Brennan who disappointed last time but yard knows when they're ready
7:55 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden
1m4f · Good To Soft · MDN · 17 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:30 — Kate O'Sullivan Memorial Handicap
1m4f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 21 runners
Tassarolo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Al What and Brave Approach led; the map had Tassarolo in front.
Wipeawayyourtears won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
6 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Tassarolo
Prominent · 1
Chopsticks
Midfield · 13
WipeawayyourtearsPremier PrincessMagna Gee GeeMapaSwinging The WorldSofi's GiftPebble IslandBrave ApproachPatrick StreetAlto SaxAl WhatHighway Sixty OneVelvet And Vine
Hold Up · 6
God Of ThunderGiselles DefenceAwakeningSir TrancealotGuildhall GraduatePhidias Ovation
Tassarolo stands alone as the only confirmed pace-setter among 21 runners, giving him uncontested control from the front. With Chopsticks the only other prominent runner, the early pace will be moderate and sustainable, allowing Tassarolo to dictate terms without pressure. The massive field of 19 hold-up horses will create a wall of traffic problems turning for home, with positioning becoming critical on the long Fairyhouse straight. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic chaos behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Tassarolo Wires Field
45% probability
If Tassarolo gets an uncontested lead and maintains his kick
The lone pace-setter exploits his tactical advantage while the cavalry charge gets bottled up behind, with Shane Foley timing the finish perfectly from the front. Hold-up horses struggle to find clear runs in the crowded stretch as Tassarolo holds on gamely.
TassaroloChopsticksAlto SaxGod Of Thunder
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Chopsticks tracks Tassarolo perfectly and times his challenge
The Patrick McGettigan-ridden runner sits in the ideal stalking position before swooping past a tiring Tassarolo in the final furlong. Early positioning proves decisive as the majority of the field encounters traffic problems when making their moves.
If the hold-up horses find clear passage and the pace collapses
A strong finisher like God Of Thunder or Alto Sax navigates through the field to catch the front-runners who went too fast early. The large field spreads out enough to provide racing room for the talented closers to unleash their finishing kicks.
God Of ThunderAlto SaxPatrick StreetWipeawayyourtears
D
Pace Collapses Completely
10% probability
If both Tassarolo and Chopsticks fade dramatically in the straight
The race becomes a sprint from the back as multiple hold-up horses surge simultaneously in a blanket finish. Positioning luck and jockey skill become paramount as horses weave through traffic in a chaotic finale.
AwakeningMapaSir TrancealotGuildhall Graduate
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Tassarolo must be monitored for any early pressure as the sole pace-setter cannot afford tactical errors from Foley
WATCH
Traffic problems will be severe turning for home with 19 hold-up horses converging simultaneously behind the leaders
WATCH
Chopsticks' positioning behind Tassarolo will determine if McGettigan can time the perfect stalking challenge
NOTE
God Of Thunder needs Carroll to secure clear racing room given his hold-up style in the massive field
NOTE
Alto Sax represents the best hold-up chance if Holohan can weave through traffic from his light weight
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.