2:05 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m · Soft · MDN · 18 runners
Alliteration to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Alliteration led, as the map showed.
Alliteration won at 5.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Alliteration
Prominent · 7
Poetic TwistBrosna QueenSalsinhaSimply NaturalShesakindofmagicCool NativeMollys Star
Midfield · 5
Cool As A CatMind The StepsStrong ContenderClash GoldUr My Fav
Hold Up · 5
ThurmanOrinoco WalkJo's SecretLady FromentroBaby Fish
Alliteration is the lone confirmed front runner in this 18-runner field and should get an uncontested lead, having shown the ability to sustain her effort when making the running in previous starts. The prominent runners like Salsinha, Poetic Twist, Cool Native and Simply Natural will likely settle just behind but none are natural pace pressers. This creates a scenario where Alliteration can dictate terms without being harassed early, then the race will develop into a staying test up the hill at Fairyhouse on soft ground. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace, as hold-up horses will struggle to make up ground in the testing conditions with such a large field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Runner Holds
45% probability
If Alliteration gets an easy lead and maintains her rhythm throughout
She can dictate the fractions and prove hard to peg back up the hill, having shown consistent form when allowed to lead. Her natural front-running style perfectly suits getting first run on this large field.
AlliterationSalsinhaPoetic TwistShesakindofmagic
B
Prominent Pair Strike Late
30% probability
If the early pace becomes too sedate and prominent runners can quicken
The likes of Salsinha and Poetic Twist can use their class to sweep past a tiring leader in the final furlong. Their higher ratings and tactical speed become decisive factors.
SalsinhaPoetic TwistCool NativeSimply Natural
C
Hold-Up Horse Surge
15% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely strong and the field comes back to the closers
Horses like Simply Natural or Shesakindofmagic can time their runs perfectly as front runners tire. The soft ground aids their staying power in a truly-run race.
Simply NaturalShesakindofmagicJo's SecretThurman
D
Outsider Benefits Chaos
10% probability
If market leaders make errors or the pace becomes stop-start
A lesser-fancied runner like Brosna Queen can benefit from a messy race where class doesn't tell. Experience and a good position become more valuable than raw ability.
Brosna QueenCool NativeLady FromentroOrinoco Walk
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Alliteration could get too easy a lead with no pace pressure and prove impossible to catch up the Fairyhouse hill
WATCH
Simply Natural and Shesakindofmagic are prominent runners who could benefit if any early pace materializes beyond Alliteration
WATCH
The large field and soft going will make it very difficult for hold-up horses to make up ground from the back
NOTE
Salsinha has the highest RPR but needs to prove she can quicken past a front runner rather than making her own pace
NOTE
Several horses returning from long breaks including Cool Native (139 days) and Thurman (464 days) may need the run
Me Wee Bonnie Lass won at 8.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bioluminescence
Prominent · 4
Kilbarry SaintBroomfield BijouMystical GoddessKiltealy Park
Midfield · 3
Secret She KeepsMay Call You BackAd Caelum
Hold Up · 3
Ballybawn BelterMe Wee Bonnie LassCrescent Moon
Bioluminescence will lead from the start with no serious pace pressure, allowing her to dictate fractions and jump in rhythm. The prominently-raced quartet of Mystical Goddess, Broomfield Bijou, Kilbarry Saint and May Call You Back will track within striking distance but none are natural pace forcers. This creates a tactical race where the tempo builds gradually after halfway, suiting horses who can quicken from prominent positions rather than those needing to come from the back. The sustained gallop and soft ground favour prominent racers and strong stayers over hold-up horses who rely on turn of foot.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Bioluminescence Controls All
45% probability
If the leader jumps fluently and faces no early pressure from the prominent pack.
Her class tells as she uses tactical advantage to string out the field, with prominent racers best placed to respond when the pace lifts. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the testing surface.
If Mystical Goddess or Kilbarry Saint press forward to challenge the leader approaching halfway.
The increased tempo plays into the hands of those tracking just behind, creating a war of attrition that exposes any stamina doubts. Strong travellers in the prominent group can capitalise on a pace collapse.
Kilbarry SaintBallybawn BelterMystical GoddessMay Call You Back
C
Hold-Up Horse Strikes
15% probability
If the early pace is slower than expected and the soft ground doesn't drain stamina reserves.
This allows the back markers time to organise their challenge, with Me Wee Bonnie Lass and Ballybawn Belter getting first run on tiring leaders. The race becomes about who has the best finishing kick.
If Bioluminescence stops quickly and the prominent group tie up on the testing ground.
The race opens up for any horse still travelling, regardless of early position, with stamina becoming the decisive factor. Patient rides on proven stayers can capitalise on a messy finish.
May Call You BackSecret She KeepsKiltealy ParkAd Caelum
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bioluminescence must prove stamina beyond 2m4f as her best chase form has come over shorter trips
WATCH
Me Wee Bonnie Lass carries just 140lbs with 5lb claimer but has struggled badly over fences compared to hurdles
NOTE
Secret She Keeps returns after 126 days off having shown decent form in this race last year
WATCH
Kilbarry Saint faces quick turnaround of just 9 days since winning at Clonmel which could blunt her edge
NOTE
May Call You Back represents the powerful Mullins yard and has shown consistent improvement this season
3:15 — Blackrock College AFC Ladies National Handicap Chase
2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Lead contested: Lord Lariat v Dancing JeremyHISTORIC
How it ran
Dancing Jeremy led, as the map showed.
The Gradual Slope won at 17.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
VaurealQuornofamondayAurea FortunaThat's About Right
Hold Up · 5
Lucky LyreenKings HillDutch SchultzBinge WorthyBeggars Rock
Lord Lariat and Dancing Jeremy are both confirmed front-runners who will contest the early lead, with Dancing Jeremy having shown more recent form and likely to take them along at a solid gallop. The honest pace will stretch the field over this 2m5f trip on testing ground, creating a stamina test rather than a sprint finish. With 17 runners and two keen leaders ensuring no crawl, this shape strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can stay the trip, while pure speed horses will struggle in the conditions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Honest Gallop Grind
45% probability
If Dancing Jeremy and Lord Lariat maintain a solid early gallop without going crazy fast...
The testing ground and sustained pace will find out the weak stayers, setting up perfectly for battle-hardened hold-up horses who can grind past tiring leaders. Horses like Dutch Schultz and Lucky Lyreen thrive in these tactical scenarios where class and stamina combine.
Dutch SchultzLucky LyreenAurea FortunaKings Hill
B
Early Pace Collapse
30% probability
If Lord Lariat's long absence tells early and Dancing Jeremy gets an easy lead...
The race becomes a sprint from the last mile with fresh horses swooping late, favouring the best natural speed from off the pace. Prominent runners who can quicken will have the edge over pure plodders.
ChoccablocHarbour HighwayLisleigh LadVaureal
C
Stamina Slog Battle
15% probability
If the soft ground really takes its toll and multiple horses tire in the straight...
This becomes a war of attrition where only the strongest stayers survive, heavily favouring horses proven over longer trips. The marathon specialists will pick up the pieces as classier but less robust horses fade.
Binge WorthyThe Gradual SlopeThat's About RightQuornofamonday
D
Leaders Dominate Home
10% probability
If Dancing Jeremy finds this trip ideal and gets into a rhythm without serious pressure...
The front-runner can dictate terms completely and prove hard to peg back, with only the most prominent runners able to mount a challenge. Early positioning becomes crucial as the field strings out.
Seek A Richer LifeLittle Big JohnLe QuestionnaireKing Of The GreysIt'llbeworthitGlenary PrinceBarnparkAnother FoolRi An StoirmMor Go Leor
Hold Up · 7
Siege Of CarthageLargy StarRegnoLeo MessyClone CrossWho's GoingCometothinkofit
This shapes as a truly searching gallop with confirmed front runners Petit Secret, Sine Qua Non, and He Can't Dance all committed to leading, creating genuine pressure from the outset. The strong pace will stretch the field over 2m4f on soft ground, with the stamina-sapping conditions likely to find out the inexperienced debutants who make up half this field. The relentless gallop will set up perfectly for hold-up horses and prominent racers with proven stamina who can pick up the pieces. This race shape decisively favours patient, staying types who can finish strongly when the pace-setters weaken.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Benefits Closers
55% probability
If the three confirmed leaders go too hard early and crack from two out
The strong gallop will stretch the field but ultimately undo the pace-setters, allowing hold-up horses with proven stamina to sweep past tired leaders. Patient tactics and finishing kick become decisive on the testing soft ground.
Largy StarSiege Of CarthageMidnight JetTreasure Memory
B
Prominent Horses Strike
25% probability
If one prominent runner can sit just off the pace without getting involved in the early battle
A horse like Treasure Memory or Midnight Jet can track the leaders without burning energy, then strike when the front three weaken. Their experience advantage over the debutants becomes crucial in the closing stages.
If He Can't Dance can dictate a more manageable tempo despite the other pace-setters
His proven hurdling experience and Gordon Elliott stable strength allows him to control the race better than his front-running rivals. The soft ground suits his record and he has the class to withstand pressure.
He Can't DanceSine Qua NonPetit SecretTreasure Memory
D
Debutant Surprise Package
8% probability
If one of the unexposed newcomers has been well-schooled and handles the occasion
A horse like Barnpark or one of the Henry De Bromhead pair could have been specifically prepared for this target. Their lack of form could mask genuine ability that emerges under race conditions.
BarnparkGlenary PrinceLe QuestionnaireKing Of The Greys
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
If He Can't Dance gets into an early speed duel with Petit Secret and Sine Qua Non, all three could compromise their chances and set up the race for closers
WATCH
Watch for any of the Henry De Bromhead debutants (Glenary Prince, Midnight Jet) showing unexpected early pace, as this could indicate hidden ability
NOTE
Monitor how Largy Star and Siege Of Carthage are travelling turning for home, as both hold-up horses are perfectly positioned to benefit from pace collapse
WATCH
Keep an eye on Treasure Memory's positioning - if he can sit closer than usual without getting involved in the pace battle, his experience becomes a major asset
NOTE
Watch for any of the Gordon Elliott outsiders (Le Questionnaire) making unexpected moves, as the stable's confidence could be with their second string rather than the obvious choice
4:25 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final (Listed Race)
3m · Soft · LST · 21 runners
6 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Hens Tooth and Melbourne Shamrock led, as the map showed.
Sept Etoiles won at 81.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
7 of 20 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 6
Hens ToothStar Of The WeekDaydream NationPanjandrumFou De ToiBlow Wind Blow
Prominent · 8
Winning SmutVitorio PielTip Of The WingsMinella EmperorMelbourne ShamrockCourt ComplianceYeshilFillyoureye
Midfield · 1
Chase The Moon
Hold Up · 6
Sept EtoilesGin TonicDivaborivaSoldierstownFound A DiamondMystic Malina
Six confirmed front runners (Hens Tooth, Star Of The Week, Daydream Nation, Panjandrum, Blow Wind Blow, Fou De Toi) guarantee a strong gallop from the start in this 21-runner field. The pace will be relentless early, with multiple horses vying for the lead, before the 3m trip and soft ground combine to test stamina reserves over the final mile. Those prominent early like Court Compliance and Vitorio Piel will be perfectly positioned as the leaders tire, while hold-up horses face a significant task getting competitive from the rear in such a large field. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the pace without leading, positioning them to strike as the genuine gallop takes its toll.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Trackers Strike
45% probability
If the pace leaders go too fast early and multiple front runners fade from 2f out
Court Compliance and Vitorio Piel can track the strong gallop without leading, perfectly positioned to strike as Daydream Nation and Star Of The Week tire. The relentless early pace sets up ideal conditions for horses racing in second or third to take over.
If the large field spreads out and the pace becomes more moderate than expected
Gin Tonic and Found A Diamond can use their staying power to weave through traffic and mount late challenges. Despite the strong early pace, class horses can still pick up the pieces if positioned well by their jockeys.
Gin TonicFound A DiamondMystic MalinaDivaboriva
C
Front Runner Survives
20% probability
If one pace-setter finds the perfect rhythm and the field doesn't close them down effectively
Daydream Nation or Blow Wind Blow could steal a march by finding their own tempo early while others fight for position. Their recent form over similar trips suggests they can sustain a strong gallop to the line.
Daydream NationBlow Wind BlowHens ToothPanjandrum
D
Outsider Benefits From Chaos
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely and multiple fancied horses get into trouble
Chase The Moon or Tip Of The Wings could benefit from a truly-run race where stamina becomes paramount over ratings. The large field and soft ground create opportunities for unfancied horses with the right trip credentials.
Chase The MoonTip Of The WingsSept EtoilesFillyoureye
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Star Of The Week faces a massive 8f trip increase from 2m wins, stamina completely unproven at this distance
WATCH
Winning Smut and Divaboriva return after 161 and 118 days respectively, fitness levels highly questionable
WATCH
Multiple front runners Hens Tooth, Daydream Nation, and Panjandrum could set unsustainable early fractions
NOTE
Court Compliance drops in trip from recent 3m efforts, may find this distance more suitable
NOTE
Found A Diamond gets headgear back on and significant weight drop to 149lbs from capable claimer
5:00 — RYBO Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
2m · Soft · LST · 19 runners
Kotkito Bello to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Karbau and Kotkito Bello led, as the map showed.
Kalix Delabarriere won at 23.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.
2 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
KarbauHello NeighbourHelvic DreamLord ErskineZillowSea Of Sands
Kotkito Bello is the only confirmed front runner in this 19-runner field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace without early pressure. The prominent runners like Puturhandstogether, Sony Bill, Murcia, Mode Avion and Playtime will track but won't challenge for the early lead. With 13 hold-up horses including Hello Neighbour, Karbau, Helvic Dream and Sea Of Sands all needing room late, the finish will be a cavalry charge from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position handily behind the lone leader and kick for home before the hold-up brigade gets organized.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Prevail
55% probability
If the prominent trackers position perfectly behind Kotkito Bello and kick before the final furlong
They'll have first run on the hold-up horses who need time to organize in a big field, with the soft ground helping stamina types. The 13 hold-up horses will struggle for racing room and clean runs in the closing stages.
MurciaPuturhandstogetherSony BillMode Avion
B
Hold-Up Heroes Strike
25% probability
If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and the hold-up horses get clean runs through
The class horses like Karbau and Hello Neighbour will have devastating finishing kicks on the soft ground. Their superior ratings will tell once they find daylight in the final 200 yards.
KarbauHello NeighbourHelvic DreamMesserschmitt
C
Lone Leader Lasts
12% probability
If Kotkito Bello gets too easy a lead and the field leaves their run too late
His three wins earlier this season show he stays strongly, and the soft ground will sap the finishing kicks of those behind. The 62-day break may have freshened him up perfectly for a bold front-running display.
Kotkito BelloPowerfulMissus BeetonBokamsin
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
8% probability
If Kotkito Bello goes too slow early then stops, creating a messy finish with traffic problems
The race becomes a lottery with horses coming from all angles in the final furlong. Any horse with luck in running and a turn of foot could prevail in the scramble.
Mode AvionDavy CrockettPlaytimeLord Erskine
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for traffic problems late with 13 hold-up horses needing room in the final 2 furlongs
WATCH
Monitor if Kotkito Bello gets too easy a lead early, could steal a march on this big field
NOTE
Keep an eye on the prominent trackers like Murcia and Puturhandstogether positioning behind the leader
WATCH
Watch for Karbau and Hello Neighbour getting squeezed for room given their hold-up styles in this big field
NOTE
Observe if the 62-day breaks for Sea Of Sands, Lord Erskine and Kotkito Bello show rustiness or freshness
Belladaball won at 10.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lilannbee
Prominent · 3
Some PretenderLizzie TwiggSomething Fabulous
Midfield · 2
BelladaballVoladora Nora
Hold Up · 2
Wonderful EverydayMoyneard
Lilannbee is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate from the start without pressure, having successfully led at Punchestown when winning. The prominent group of Lizzie Twigg, Something Fabulous, Some Pretender and Belladaball will track her but none are habitual pace pressers. This creates a controlled tempo that allows the hold-up horses Wonderful Everyday and Moyneard to get into contention, while the sustainable pace should favour those who can quicken from mid-pack positions. The lack of pace pressure strongly favours prominent trackers and hold-up horses over the lone leader.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Tracker Strikes
45% probability
If Lilannbee sets uncontested fractions and the prominent horses get first run
The controlled pace allows prominent runners to conserve energy and quicken decisively approaching the finish. Lizzie Twigg's recent winning form or Something Fabulous's class edge become decisive factors when the race opens up.
If the early pace is genuinely slow and the finish becomes a sprint
The tactical race setup perfectly suits the patient hold-up runners who can unleash late kicks. Wonderful Everyday's class from her Punchestown win or Moyneard's recent staying-on form at Thurles becomes the winning factor.
If Lilannbee gets easy early fractions and the others leave their runs too late
The uncontested leader builds enough advantage through steady sectionals to resist late challenges on the testing ground. Her Punchestown victory showed she can sustain when allowed to control the tempo from the front.
If the race becomes truly run to suit an outsider's specific profile
The tactical nature and small field create opportunities for horses whose recent form doesn't reflect their ability in these conditions. The pace collapse suits a horse who can find extra when the race opens up late.
Wonderful Everyday must show early signs of her old ability or her poor recent form suggests deeper issues
WATCH
Lilannbee's jockey tactics early - if pressured by prominent runners, her stamina reserves become questionable
WATCH
Something Fabulous adapting quickly to race fitness after 174-day layoff in this competitive Listed contest
NOTE
Moyneard's positioning through halfway - if too far back, the controlled pace may not provide enough late acceleration
NOTE
Lizzie Twigg's jumping off quickly to secure ideal tracking position behind the likely uncontested leader
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.