Archive›Fakenham · 31 May 2026

Fakenham

31 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:35 — fakenhamdogfield.co.uk Novices' Handicap Hurdle

2m7½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Tuba likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Tuba and Madajovy led, as the map showed.

Tuba won at 1.83 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tuba

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Popa RichThe Kings Soldier

Hold Up · 2

MadajovyDame In Disguise

Tuba will take the lead from the start with no other confirmed front runners in this small field. The prominent runner will likely dictate a steady, sustainable pace given the 2m7½f trip and good ground conditions. With four hold-up horses (Madajovy, Popa Rich, Dame In Disguise, The Kings Soldier) all needing to be delivered late, there's minimal early pressure on Tuba. This race shape strongly favours the lone pace-setter and any horse that can track close, as the hold-up brigade will face a traffic nightmare in the small field when trying to mount their challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tuba Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Tuba jumps well and maintains an unchallenged lead into the straight

The pace-setter exploits the lack of early pressure to dictate ideal fractions before quickening clear of the hold-up horses who struggle for room. Fern O'Brien can time her effort perfectly with no pace pressure early.

TubaPopa RichMadajovyThe Kings Soldier

Late Traffic Chaos

25% probability

If the hold-up horses bunch together turning for home and struggle for racing room

Multiple horses get blocked or have to switch wide, allowing one with the best passage or position to capitalize. The early leader either holds on or gets caught by the horse with the clearest run.

MadajovyTubaPopa RichDame In Disguise

Tactical Collapse

20% probability

If Tuba goes too slow early and gets swamped by all four hold-up horses in the straight

The lack of early pace creates a sprint finish where class tells and the best jumper prevails. Madajovy's higher rating and Dan Skelton form becomes decisive in a bunched finish.

MadajovyThe Kings SoldierTubaPopa Rich

Surprise Hold-Up Winner

10% probability

If one of the hold-up horses gets a perfect stalking position and superior turn of foot

A patient ride pays dividends as the chosen horse avoids trouble and has enough tactical speed to run down Tuba. This requires perfect timing and jumping from the closing stages.

Popa RichDame In DisguiseMadajovyTuba

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tuba's jumping fluency early - any mistakes will invite pressure she cannot afford with four closers behind

WATCH

Traffic problems turning for home with four hold-up horses needing room in a small field

NOTE

Madajovy's settling pattern given stable change and whether new connections have solved previous tactical issues

NOTE

Popa Rich getting competitive position given Cartmel form suggests she needs to be handy on tight tracks

WATCH

The pace through the first mile - if Tuba goes too steady the hold-up horses will have too much left

3:05 — Bruce Towers & Sons Mechanical Engineers Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Skye Glance likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dancing Dame led; the map had Skye Glance in front.

Alibey won at 2.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Skye Glance

Prominent · 1

Alibey

Midfield · 1

Never Told Me

Hold Up · 2

Baileys Big ImageDancing Dame

Skye Glance will lead from flag to finish with Never Told Me and Alibey tracking in prominent positions, while Dancing Dame and Baileys Big Image settle further back. With only one confirmed front-runner in a small field, Skye Glance can dictate a comfortable tempo without early pressure. The pace will be steady rather than breakneck, allowing the field to stay reasonably compact turning for home. This sustainable pace setup clearly favors hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as the leaders will still have plenty left to give when the genuine running begins.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the pace stays controlled and becomes a sprint from two out

Dancing Dame and Baileys Big Image benefit from their patient tactics as the early leaders weaken in the final furlong. The race becomes about who has the most left in reserve rather than who can sustain pressure longest.

Dancing DameBaileys Big ImageNever Told MeAlibey

Prominent Pair Battle

25% probability

If Never Told Me and Alibey press Skye Glance from halfway and create genuine pace

The increased tempo stretches the hold-up horses too far back while Never Told Me's proven hurdles form gives her the edge over Alibey. This becomes a battle of stamina between the three prominent runners.

Never Told MeAlibeySkye GlanceDancing Dame

Skye Glance Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If no horse applies serious pressure to the leader throughout

Skye Glance gets away with murder in front and has enough class to repel late challengers. Her improvement from the Plumpton bumper suggests she can handle this weak opposition when unopposed early.

Skye GlanceNever Told MeAlibeyDancing Dame

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If Skye Glance goes too slow and the race becomes a crawl

The entire field arrives together at the last hurdle creating a messy finish where jumping errors decide the outcome. Form lines become irrelevant as it turns into a lottery sprint from the final flight.

AlibeyDancing DameNever Told MeSkye Glance

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Never Told Me for any signs of rustiness early given her 274-day layoff in a race where sharpness matters.

WATCH

Watch Skye Glance's jumping under pressure as any mistakes will hand the race to the hold-up horses behind.

NOTE

Watch Dancing Dame's position turning in as she needs the leaders to go fast enough to set up her finishing kick.

WATCH

Watch Baileys Big Image for market support as any confidence would be significant given her massive fitness concerns.

NOTE

Watch the pace from the start as this small field could easily become tactical and ruin the hold-up horses' chances.

3:35 — Book Your Function @fakenhamracecourse.co.uk Handicap Chase

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Not For Passin to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Not For Passin led, as the map showed.

Most Wanted won at 9.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Not For Passin

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Chateau Du Lys

Hold Up · 2

Most WantedGetaway Jewel

Not For Passin is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start without pressure in this small field. The three hold-up horses (Getaway Jewel, Most Wanted, Chateau Du Lys) will settle behind and rely on a finish. With minimal early pace pressure, Not For Passin can control the gallop and dictate when the race develops. This setup strongly favours the front runner who can steal a march and kick clear when ready, while the hold-up horses face the challenge of reeling in a horse with a soft lead.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

65% probability

If Not For Passin gets an easy lead and jumps cleanly

He can dictate a moderate gallop then quicken approaching the final fences, leaving the hold-up horses with too much ground to make up. The absence of early pace pressure allows him to conserve energy for a telling move.

Not For PassinGetaway Jewel

Late Surge Succeeds

20% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and bunches the field

The hold-up horses get the opportunity to close up and unleash their finishing kicks in the final half-mile. Getaway Jewel's course-and-distance winning form becomes crucial in a sprint finish.

Getaway JewelMost Wanted

Leader Folds Late

10% probability

If Not For Passin sets too strong a pace or makes jumping errors

His effort peters out in the final furlong, allowing the most stamina-laden hold-up horse to sweep past. The patient tactics of the closers finally pay dividends in a staying test.

Most WantedGetaway Jewel

Surprise Package

5% probability

If Chateau Du Lys benefits from the cheekpieces and gets a perfect tactical ride

Charlie Maggs times his challenge perfectly as the others falter, capitalizing on his horse's recent Market Rasen form. The 3-claim jockey produces a career-best tactical effort.

Chateau Du LysNot For Passin

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If Not For Passin jumps poorly early on, it could disrupt his natural front-running tactics and level the playing field

WATCH

Getaway Jewel's fitness after 166 days off - any signs of ring-rustiness could prove costly in a small, competitive field

NOTE

Whether Charlie Maggs can time Chateau Du Lys's challenge properly from his hold-up position given his inexperience

WATCH

If the pace becomes too slow early on, it could negate Not For Passin's tactical advantage and bring the hold-up horses into play

NOTE

Most Wanted's jumping under pressure - his Taunton effort suggests he may struggle when the race heats up

4:07 — 1st The Queens' Dragoon Guards Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Hello Sweety to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hello Sweety led, as the map showed.

Hello Sweety won at 5.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hello Sweety

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Blackwater Lilly

Hold Up · 2

An Bradan FeasaAmbiente Friendly

Hello Sweety will set a clear lead from the start as the only confirmed front-runner in this small field, with the other three runners all preferring hold-up tactics. This creates a tactical nightmare where Sweety may get an uncontested lead, but her free-going style could see her burn out if Charlie Hammond can't settle her. With Ambiente Friendly, An Bradan Feasa, and Blackwater Lilly all needing to be produced late, they risk giving Sweety too much rope early doors. This pace scenario strongly favours the front-runner if she can find the right rhythm, though patient hold-up horses could benefit if Sweety goes too hard.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Hello Sweety gets into a sustainable rhythm early without pressure

Hammond can dictate fractions and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still getting organized. The three closers leave it too late to reel her in despite superior ratings.

Hello SweetyAn Bradan FeasaAmbiente Friendly

Sweety Burns Out

30% probability

If Hello Sweety goes too fast early trying to build a big lead

Her free-going nature sees her tie up in the final furlong as Burke, Bowen and Quinlan time their challenges perfectly. The superior class of the hold-up horses tells in a driving finish.

An Bradan FeasaAmbiente FriendlyHello Sweety

Hold-Up Horses Clash

15% probability

If the three closers all produce their runs simultaneously in the final two furlongs

They get in each other's way while Hello Sweety maintains her advantage, with one hold-up horse emerging late but not quite getting there. An Bradan Feasa's recent form edge could prove decisive.

An Bradan FeasaHello SweetyAmbiente Friendly

Tactical Stalemate Benefits Class

10% probability

If nobody wants to pressure Hello Sweety but she doesn't build enough of a lead

The race becomes a sprint from the last hurdle where Ambiente Friendly's superior class on paper tells despite his quirks. His flat speed could be the difference in a tight finish.

Ambiente FriendlyAn Bradan Feasa

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hello Sweety's early fractions - if she goes too fast trying to build a lead, she'll tie up badly in the final furlong

WATCH

Ambiente Friendly's early behaviour - his tendency to race too freely could derail his chances even from a hold-up position

WATCH

An Bradan Feasa's fitness after 241 days off - any signs of rustiness early could leave Bowen with too much to do

NOTE

The positioning of the three hold-up horses - if they all track each other rather than Hello Sweety, they hand her a huge tactical advantage

NOTE

Charlie Hammond's restraint on Hello Sweety - his ability to settle her will determine whether she lasts home or burns out

4:37 — Prince Of Wales Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Lead contested: Hurricane Bay v No But I WillHISTORIC

How it ran

Tommy Cullen led; the map had Hurricane Bay and No But I Will in front.

Nickelforce won at 3.20 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Hurricane BayNo But I Will

Prominent · 2

NickelforceTommy Cullen

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Coastguard Station

Hurricane Bay and No But I Will are both confirmed front-runners who will contest the early lead, with Hurricane Bay having recent winning form and likely to show more pace. This dual-leader clash will create an honest gallop throughout the 2m5f trip, preventing the race from becoming a sprint. The sustained pace will stretch the field and favor horses with stamina and the ability to stay on strongly. This race shape clearly favors prominent runners and closers who can benefit from the strong early tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Pace Battle

60% probability

If Hurricane Bay and No But I Will engage in a prolonged front-running duel

The honest gallop plays into the hands of prominent trackers who can position close but avoid the early pace pressure. Coastguard Station's hold-up style thrives off this tempo while Nickelforce and Tommy Cullen can track and pounce.

Coastguard StationNickelforceTommy CullenHurricane Bay

One Leader Dominates

20% probability

If Hurricane Bay gets an uncontested lead with No But I Will settling or struggling early

The winner controls the tempo and can dictate when to quicken, making life difficult for closers. Hurricane Bay's recent Huntingdon win suggests he can make all when getting his own way.

Hurricane BayTommy CullenNickelforceCoastguard Station

Pace Collapse Early

12% probability

If both front-runners show early pace then fade quickly due to their recent exertions

The race becomes tactical with Nickelforce and Tommy Cullen prominent but not committed early. Coastguard Station gets the perfect setup from his hold-up position to unleash a late run.

Coastguard StationNickelforceTommy CullenHurricane Bay

Messy Moderate Pace

8% probability

If neither leader shows expected pace due to jockey tactics or ground conditions

The race lacks shape and becomes a test of raw ability rather than tactical positioning. Class horses like Coastguard Station and Hurricane Bay can overcome poor positioning through superior ability.

Hurricane BayCoastguard StationNickelforceTommy Cullen

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hurricane Bay and No But I Will both showing early pace could set up a pace collapse scenario

WATCH

Tommy Cullen's recent tendency to hit flat spots before staying on may be problematic over 2m5f

NOTE

Coastguard Station needs the two leaders to ensure honest pace for his hold-up style to be effective

WATCH

No But I Will's 47-day break and 7lb claimer combination adds tactical uncertainty to his front-running role

NOTE

Nickelforce dropping in grade after Uttoxeter third gives him each-way appeal if pace unfolds as expected

5:07 — Fisher Electrical Contractors Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Female Pro Jockeys/Amateur Riders')

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Nottodaybobo likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nottodaybobo and Gone In Sixty led, as the map showed.

Nottodaybobo won at 6.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Nottodaybobo

Prominent · 1

Market House

Midfield · 1

Winston's Oath

Hold Up · 1

Gone In Sixty

Nottodaybobo will take this field along from the front with his proven front-running style, setting a sustainable gallop over 2m4f that won't be pressured by the small field. Market House and Winston's Oath are both prominent racers but neither is aggressive enough to challenge for the early lead, while Gone In Sixty will settle at the back under hold-up tactics. With one confirmed leader and no pace pressure, this creates an ideal scenario for Nottodaybobo to dictate terms and control the race from pillar to post. This race shape strongly favours the front-runner and prominent racers who can track the pace closely.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Nottodaybobo jumps cleanly and maintains his rhythm throughout

The pace will be perfectly judged with no pressure applied, allowing him to kick clear approaching the last and hold on strongly. His recent front-running win at Market Rasen in identical conditions makes him perfectly suited to exploit this tactical advantage.

NottodayboboMarket HouseWinston's OathGone In Sixty

Prominent Tracker Pounces

30% probability

If Market House travels smoothly in second and finds his best form

The consistent performer can use his higher class rating to reel in Nottodaybobo after the last flight, with his proven ability on good going and recent Plumpton success giving him the edge. Alice Stevens' 3lb claim on the leader becomes crucial in a tight finish.

Market HouseWinston's OathNottodayboboGone In Sixty

Hold Up Challenge

15% probability

If Gone In Sixty finds significant improvement after his wind operation

Isabelle Ryder can use her 5lb allowance to close strongly from the back, with the 9-year-old's previous hurdles form suggesting he has more to offer than his latest chase effort. The strong pace will set up his finishing kick perfectly.

Gone In SixtyMarket HouseNottodayboboWinston's Oath

Unexposed Improver Strikes

10% probability

If Winston's Oath builds on his promising third over course and distance last month

The 4-year-old can make significant improvement in just his third hurdles start, using his youth and potential to outbattle more experienced rivals up the hill. His age profile suggests untapped reserves that could surprise at bigger odds.

Winston's OathMarket HouseNottodayboboGone In Sixty

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gone In Sixty needs to show immediate sharpness after his wind operation and disappointing chase debut at Fontwell this month.

WATCH

Market House's visor application could either enhance or hinder his jumping rhythm, having only worn it once before when winning at Plumpton.

NOTE

Alice Stevens must judge the pace perfectly on Nottodaybobo to avoid going too fast early in this small field where there's little pressure.

NOTE

Winston's Oath represents the main unknown quantity as a lightly-raced 4-year-old who could find significant improvement third time over hurdles.

WATCH

The 23-day gap since Nottodaybobo's last run could be crucial if the pace becomes truly-run in the closing stages.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 31 May 2026.

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