Archive›Fakenham · 6 April 2026

Fakenham

6 April 2026 · 6 races

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2:15 — Join Racing TV Now Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Vicki Vale likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Painted Wolf and Shotgun Rider led; the map had Vicki Vale in front.

Painted Wolf won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Vicki Vale

Prominent · 2

Shotgun RiderCoolkatie

Midfield · 2

Livano BelloPainted Wolf

Hold Up · 2

Mermaids CaveBitsnbuckles

Vicki Vale leads with Shotgun Rider, Coolkatie, and Livano Bello tracking prominently, while hold-up horses Mermaids Cave, Bitsnbuckles, and Painted Wolf settle behind. The sustained pace from multiple prominent runners will create a searching gallop over this 2m4f trip on good ground. The early tempo should be honest but not suicidal, with the real race beginning after the final hurdle when the hold-up brigade unleash their finishing kicks. This pace setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can capitalise on the sustained gallop by delivering late challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

45% probability

If the prominent runners maintain a strong gallop throughout

The sustained pace will find out the front-runners over the final half-mile, allowing the closers to pick up the pieces. Mermaids Cave, Bitsnbuckles, and Painted Wolf are perfectly positioned to exploit tired leaders.

Mermaids CaveBitsnbucklesPainted WolfShotgun Rider

Prominent Tactical Success

30% probability

If one of the prominent runners can dictate fractions and kick clear

A horse like Coolkatie or Shotgun Rider could steal a march by controlling the tempo and having enough left for a decisive move. The hold-up horses may find themselves with too much to do.

CoolkatieShotgun RiderLivano BelloMermaids Cave

Collapse and Surprise

15% probability

If the pace becomes too strong and main contenders tire

The searching gallop could undo the favourites, allowing an outsider to pick up the pieces late. Livano Bello or Painted Wolf could benefit from others' misfortune despite their own limitations.

Livano BelloPainted WolfBitsnbucklesVicki Vale

Front Runner Wire-to-Wire

10% probability

If Vicki Vale gets an uncontested lead and stays on strongly

Despite her long absence, she could use her front-running style to maximum advantage if unopposed early. The hold-up horses would need to work harder to reach her, potentially compromising their finishing kicks.

Vicki ValeShotgun RiderCoolkatieMermaids Cave

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Vicki Vale's fitness after 544 days off could see her fade dramatically if she leads into the straight

WATCH

Shotgun Rider's tendency to race too freely may repeat under pressure in a strongly-run contest

WATCH

Mermaids Cave's amateur rider Mr Murphy managing the tactical battle against experienced professional jockeys

NOTE

Bitsnbuckles and Painted Wolf both need the pace to develop for their hold-up styles to be effective

NOTE

Coolkatie's jumping under pressure after her last-flight fall at Warwick when well-placed

2:50 — Aldiss Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Whatcombe likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tralee Girl led; the map had Whatcombe in front.

Cotton Socks won at 5.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Whatcombe

Prominent · 2

Tralee GirlCotton Socks

Midfield · 3

Subtle GlanceFitzroy GardensWinston's Oath

Hold Up · 1

Argentum

Whatcombe leads the early pace given his front-running tendencies, though his fade-in-finish profile suggests he'll weaken approaching the final hurdle. Cotton Socks, Tralee Girl, Winston's Oath and Fitzroy Gardens will settle prominently behind, creating a steady gallop rather than genuine pressure early. The lack of confirmed pacesetting pressure means this becomes a sprint finish from the last hurdle, heavily favouring horses with finishing kick over pure speed. This race shape clearly benefits hold-up horses and those with tactical speed who can quicken late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Steady Pace Finish

55% probability

If Whatcombe sets uncontested fractions and fades predictably from two out

The lack of early pace allows class horses to wind up late, with Tralee Girl's superior rating and finishing speed proving decisive. Her Listed-class form trumps modest opposition when given racing room.

Tralee GirlCotton SocksFitzroy GardensArgentum

Genuine Early Gallop

25% probability

If Cotton Socks or Winston's Oath press Whatcombe from flagfall creating sustained pace

The honest gallop suits horses who can travel and quicken, with Tralee Girl's class again telling but Cotton Socks benefiting from the stronger test. Both have shown ability to handle tempo changes.

Tralee GirlCotton SocksFitzroy GardensWinston's Oath

Messy Tactical Affair

12% probability

If multiple prominent runners hesitate behind the fading Whatcombe, creating stop-start fractions

The tactical race becomes a lottery where inexperienced horses struggle with pace judgment, potentially suiting Argentum's hold-up style. His Flat background helps in scrappy finishes where positioning matters most.

ArgentumFitzroy GardensCotton SocksTralee Girl

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If Whatcombe stops completely early and no horse takes up running, creating crawling fractions

The lack of any pace turns this into a pure sprint finish where raw speed matters most over stamina. Cotton Socks' recent hurdle experience gives him advantage in chaotic circumstances over classier but rustier rivals.

Cotton SocksWinston's OathFitzroy GardensArgentum

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tralee Girl carries significant market confidence despite 72-day absence, any drift suggests fitness concerns

WATCH

Whatcombe's front-running role is crucial given his fade profile, early weakness changes entire race dynamic completely

NOTE

Cotton Socks and Winston's Oath met recently at Market Rasen with clear form line to assess improvement

WATCH

Subtle Glance is a complete unknown quantity on hurdle debut, refitted hood suggests ongoing issues

NOTE

Multiple runners carry headgear changes or applications indicating trainer concerns about attitude or focus

3:25 — Aldiss "Chasing Excellence" Novices' Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · NOV · 3 runners

Kilaro to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sonigino led; the map had Kilaro in front.

Sonigino won at 1.62 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 2 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kilaro

Prominent · 1

Walking On Air

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Sonigino

Kilaro will take them along from the front in this small field, with Walking On Air likely to sit handy in second while Sonigino tracks from the rear. With only three runners and Kilaro as the sole confirmed front runner, the pace will be steady and controlled rather than testing. The lack of pace pressure means the race will develop into a tactical affair where stamina and jumping accuracy become paramount. This moderate gallop strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish, giving Sonigino's patient style the clearest tactical advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sonigino Times Run Perfectly

45% probability

If Sonigino jumps cleanly and Gingell delivers his typical well-timed challenge from the rear.

The modest pace plays directly into the hold-up horse's hands as Kilaro and Walking On Air serve as sitting ducks up front. Sonigino's class advantage shines through when the race develops into a pure test of ability rather than tactical positioning.

SoniginoWalking On AirKilaro

Kilaro Controls Throughout

30% probability

If the front runner maintains a stronger gallop than expected and his jumping holds up under pressure.

Walking On Air gets first crack at the leader but Kilaro's stamina proves superior in the closing stages. The lack of early pressure allows the leader to conserve energy for a decisive move when challenged.

KilaroWalking On AirSonigino

Walking On Air Strikes

20% probability

If the prominent runner can pressure Kilaro early while staying clear of Sonigino's late charge.

The tactical position proves perfect as Walking On Air can dictate when to make his move while keeping tabs on the leader. His recent Cheltenham form suggests the step up in trip suits despite the different demands.

Walking On AirKilaroSonigino

Jumping Decides Contest

5% probability

If multiple horses make significant jumping errors that reshape the race dynamics.

The steady pace becomes irrelevant as fluency at the obstacles determines the outcome rather than tactical positioning. The horse who jumps most accurately inherits a decisive advantage regardless of running style.

KilaroWalking On AirSonigino

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

WATCH

Watch Kilaro's jumping technique closely as novice chasers often struggle with fluency on debut over fences.

NOTE

Monitor Sonigino's early positioning as Gingell needs to keep him close enough to strike in such a small field.

KEY

Watch for any market moves on Walking On Air as the trip reduction could expose stamina limitations despite recent promise.

WATCH

Observe the early pace as Kilaro may go too fast if feeling pressure from Walking On Air tracking him.

NOTE

Watch the ground conditions as any softening would significantly favour Sonigino's proven soft ground form.

4:00 — Cecil & Sheila Buttifant Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m7½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Four Decades likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Callmesusie led; the map had Four Decades in front.

Annie Nail won at 3.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Four Decades

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

CallmesusieAnnie Nail

Hold Up · 2

Best WomenAbbey Law

Four Decades is the only confirmed front runner in this small field and will control the tempo from the outset. With four hold-up horses behind her, she'll get an uncontested lead and can dictate fractions without pressure. The race will develop into a waiting game as Best Women, Abbey Law, Callmesusie and Annie Nail all need to be produced late. This race shape strongly favours the pace-setter Four Decades, who can exploit the tactical disadvantage of multiple closers bunched together in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

65% probability

If Four Decades gets an easy lead and stays on strongly

The prominent runner controls every call without pressure and has enough left to repel late challenges. Multiple hold-up horses get in each other's way in a bunched finish.

Four DecadesBest WomenAbbey Law

Strong Closer Prevails

20% probability

If Best Women or Annie Nail get clear running late

One hold-up horse finds the perfect passage through traffic while Four Decades weakens from her solo effort. Class tells in the final 100 yards.

Best WomenAnnie NailFour Decades

Pace Collapse Scenario

12% probability

If Four Decades goes too fast early like at Kempton

The leader burns out from over-racing and multiple closers sweep past in the straight. Abbey Law's recent Ludlow win suggests she's improving.

Abbey LawCallmesusieBest WomenAnnie Nail

Shock Result

3% probability

If the favourite Four Decades falls or makes an error

Callmesusie or another outsider capitalizes on chaos to spring a surprise. The small field creates opportunities for unconsidered runners.

CallmesusieAnnie Nail

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Four Decades racing too keenly early like her last run at Kempton where she went too fast and weakened

WATCH

Best Women getting trapped behind horses in the straight as multiple hold-up runners converge simultaneously

WATCH

Abbey Law's jumping under pressure as she steps up in class from her Ludlow maiden hurdle success

NOTE

Annie Nail's fitness levels after 64 days off the track with inexperienced 7lb claimer Oscar Palmer aboard

NOTE

Callmesusie's jumping rhythm returning from her 24-day break having pulled up in her penultimate start

4:35 — Watch On Racing TV Handicap Chase

3m · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Cloudy Wednesday to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cloudy Wednesday led, as the map showed.

Another Mystery won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cloudy Wednesday

Prominent · 2

Brother BorisReforme

Midfield · 1

Another Mystery

Hold Up · 1

Crac De Megaudais

Cloudy Wednesday will set a measured gallop from the front, with Brother Boris likely to track closely given his front-running tendencies. The pace should be sustainable rather than punishing with these two natural leaders, creating a tactical battle where positioning matters more than pure speed. Reforme and Another Mystery will sit prominent, while Crac De Megaudais drops in last from his hold-up position. This setup favours horses who can travel well in the first three and have the tactical speed to respond when the tempo lifts from the home turn.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Cloudy Wednesday Controls

45% probability

If Cloudy Wednesday gets an uncontested lead and dictates fractions

The course specialist can employ kick-and-go tactics turning for home, using local knowledge to time his effort perfectly. Brother Boris may track too closely and compromise his own finishing kick.

Cloudy WednesdayReformeBrother BorisAnother Mystery

Brother Boris Pressure Cooker

30% probability

If Brother Boris applies early pressure or disputes the lead with Cloudy Wednesday

The increased pace will set up the race for a closer with tactical speed from off the leaders. Reforme can benefit from the stronger gallop having shown good finishing kicks previously.

Brother BorisAnother MysteryReformeCloudy Wednesday

Prominent Pair Pounce

20% probability

If both leaders tire from the second-last fence onwards

Reforme and Another Mystery can capitalize on their handy positions without having done the donkey work. The 97-day break may tell on Reforme, giving Another Mystery the edge despite the higher weight.

Another MysteryReformeCloudy WednesdayBrother Boris

Crac De Megaudais Revival

5% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

The hold-up horse gets the perfect setup to unleash his proven finishing kick. However, his recent chase form suggests this revival scenario remains unlikely.

Crac De MegaudaisReformeAnother MysteryBrother Boris

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Brother Boris disputes the early lead with Cloudy Wednesday as both are natural front-runners who could compromise each other

WATCH

Monitor Reforme's jumping early after 97 days off the track, especially as trainer Gretton has moderate strike-rate recently

NOTE

Check if Crac De Megaudais can travel kindly in rear early, as his recent efforts suggest he may struggle to keep up

WATCH

Watch Another Mystery's jumping fences as she returns from hurdles having shown inconsistent chasing form previously

NOTE

Observe if Cloudy Wednesday can dictate fractions like in his previous course victories, particularly through the back straight

5:10 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 6 April 2026.

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