Archive›Ffos Las · 20 May 2026

Ffos Las

20 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:50 — Mortal Bunny Rum Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Lemon Leaf to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lion Of The Desert led; the map had Lemon Leaf in front.

October Hill won at 11.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lemon Leaf

Prominent · 2

Red RubioOctober Hill

Midfield · 2

JuggernautAslukgoes

Hold Up · 1

Lion Of The Desert

Lemon Leaf holds a monopoly on early pace with his confirmed leading style, while the other five are all prominent/hold-up types who will settle behind. This creates a dream scenario for the front-runner, as he faces no early pressure and can dictate terms throughout the 2m4f journey on soft ground that will emphasize stamina. The lack of pace pressure means Lemon Leaf can cruise through the early stages and kick when ready, while the pack behind will need to rely on late finishing speed. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and those with proven stamina reserves over horses dependent on turn of foot.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lemon Leaf Wire Job

45% probability

If Lemon Leaf gets his preferred soft lead without harassment from the flag

He can measure out his fractions perfectly and have plenty left for the finish, making the pursuers chase a moving target. The longer they leave it to challenge, the more ground they concede to a horse already proven at this course and distance.

Lemon LeafLion Of The DesertRed RubioJuggernaut

Late Surge Successful

30% probability

If the soft ground and steady pace allows closers to unleash finishing kicks

Lion Of The Desert and Red Rubio can use their hold-up/prominent styles to good effect, timing late runs to collar a tiring leader. The 2m4f trip suits both stamina types on testing ground.

Lion Of The DesertRed RubioLemon LeafOctober Hill

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If one of the prominent runners can sit close enough to Lemon Leaf without being strung out

Juggernaut or October Hill could track the leader into the straight and have enough left to pass in the final furlong. Their experience of sitting handy positions gives them the tactical edge over pure hold-up horses.

JuggernautOctober HillLemon LeafLion Of The Desert

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If Lemon Leaf goes too slow early and the race becomes a sprint from the last

The whole field arrives together and it becomes about who has the most natural speed rather than stamina. Aslukgoes could benefit from his point-to-point background in a rough finish.

AslukgoesLion Of The DesertRed RubioJuggernaut

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lemon Leaf getting an uncontested lead through the first mile could make this a procession

WATCH

Red Rubio's stamina reserves on soft ground as the trip steps up significantly from his recent shorter efforts

NOTE

October Hill's jumping under pressure if she gets competitive, given her poor strike rate and tendency to find trouble

WATCH

Aslukgoes showing ring-rust after 168 days off, particularly important for a horse who needs to be handy from the start

NOTE

Lion Of The Desert's ability to get into contention from his hold-up style if the pace becomes truly pedestrian

3:20 — Happy 1st Birthday Donnacha Fenelon Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · NOV · 5 runners

The Flaggy Shore to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Flaggy Shore led, as the map showed.

The Flaggy Shore won at 2.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Flaggy Shore

Prominent · 1

One Knight

Midfield · 1

Brenda Lady

Hold Up · 2

FiskardoKenobi

The Flaggy Shore will dictate terms from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field. One Knight may track prominently early but isn't a natural leader, while Fiskardo and Kenobi will need to be delivered late. With only one genuine front-runner, The Flaggy Shore can control the tempo and dictate when to inject pace. This measured tempo followed by a sprint finish clearly favours horses that can travel and quicken, giving prominent racers and those with tactical speed a significant advantage over pure hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If The Flaggy Shore gets an uncontested lead and controls fractions

The proven bumper winner can dictate ideal fractions and has the class edge from his Listed placings. His natural speed advantage becomes decisive when he can control when the race begins in earnest.

The Flaggy ShoreOne KnightFiskardoBrenda Lady

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If One Knight travels smoothly in second and produces his bumper form

The Emma Lavelle runner showed good acceleration winning his first two bumpers and can capitalize on tracking the pace. His proven partnership with Johnstone-Baker becomes crucial in a tactical finish.

One KnightThe Flaggy ShoreFiskardoBrenda Lady

Late Surge Succeeds

15% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and sets up back-markers

Fiskardo's recent Perth win suggests he retains ability and the tongue-tie addition could unlock improvement. The soft ground suits his profile and he can benefit from a stronger gallop.

FiskardoBrenda LadyThe Flaggy ShoreOne Knight

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If The Flaggy Shore goes too slowly and it becomes a sprint from the last

The race becomes a pure test of raw speed rather than stamina, potentially suiting a fresh horse. However, this seems unlikely given The Flaggy Shore's tactical awareness shown in Listed company.

One KnightThe Flaggy ShoreBrenda LadyFiskardo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kenobi has been pulled up or tailed off in hurdles and could compromise the race if struggling early

WATCH

The Flaggy Shore's 74-day break since his last run could affect his sharpness despite his class edge

NOTE

Fiskardo carries the tongue-tie that helped him win at Perth and could show marked improvement

WATCH

One Knight disappointed badly in Grade 2 company last time and needs to bounce back to bumper form

NOTE

Brenda Lady makes her hurdles debut with no established running style, creating tactical uncertainty

3:50 — Happy 1st Birthday Idris Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

3m · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: Poet's Muse v Hard StareHISTORIC

How it ran

Poet's Muse led, as the map showed.

Green Asset won at 6.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Poet's MuseHard Stare

Prominent · 3

Green AssetGlenmuickCrest Of Valour

Midfield · 1

Good Girl Rachel

Hold Up · 2

BlackacreAlderley Charlie

Poet's Muse and Hard Stare will dispute the early lead in this novice handicap hurdle, with both confirmed front runners likely to set a solid gallop over the 3-mile trip. Green Asset and Glenmuick will track prominently behind the leaders, while the hold-up horses Blackacre and Alderley Charlie will settle towards the rear on the testing soft ground. The sustained pace from two keen leaders over this stamina-stretching distance will create a genuine test, particularly given the energy-sapping conditions. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners who can sit close to the pace without doing the donkey work, as both leaders may weaken after their early battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Pounces

45% probability

If Green Asset or Glenmuick can track the early leaders without getting embroiled in their battle

The solid early pace will soften up both Poet's Muse and Hard Stare, allowing the patient prominent runners to strike in the final half-mile. Green Asset's improved recent form and Glenmuick's first-time cheekpieces give them the tactical edge.

Green AssetGlenmuickPoet's MuseCrest Of Valour

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If Poet's Muse can dictate terms and kick clear of Hard Stare before the home turn

Her narrow defeat at Taunton suggests she has the stamina for this trip, and if she can dispose of Hard Stare early, she may have enough left to hold off late challengers. The mare's point-to-point background provides the foundation for this sustained effort.

Poet's MuseHard StareGreen AssetGlenmuick

Hold-Up Horse Benefits

15% probability

If the early pace between the leaders becomes suicidal and burns them out completely

The soft ground and 3-mile distance would play perfectly into Blackacre's hands, allowing him to pick up the pieces despite his poor hurdles record. His chase-winning form at Newton Abbot proves he has the stamina when conditions suit.

BlackacreAlderley CharlieCrest Of ValourGood Girl Rachel

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If both Poet's Muse and Hard Stare disappoint and fail to set any meaningful gallop

A messy, slowly-run affair would turn this into a sprint finish where class and recent form matter most. Green Asset's superior recent RPR figures would make him very hard to beat in such circumstances.

Green AssetGlenmuickPoet's MuseCrest Of Valour

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Hard Stare and Poet's Muse go too fast early as this could set up the race for patient types like Green Asset and Blackacre.

WATCH

Monitor Glenmuick's jumping over this longer trip as he steps up to 3 miles for the first time with new cheekpieces.

NOTE

Observe how the soft ground affects the stamina reserves in the final half-mile as several runners have question marks over the trip.

WATCH

Check if Blackacre can overcome his poor 0-11 hurdles record as the visor and longer trip may unlock improvement.

NOTE

Watch for any market support for Crest Of Valour making his handicap debut with tongue-tie as the yard is out of form.

4:20 — Francky Du Berlais Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Soft · HCAP · 4 runners

Hell Hound likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Loki's Mischief won at 2.75 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hell Hound

Prominent · 1

Axel Bleue

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Loki's MischiefJack's Jury

Hell Hound will take them along at a sustainable tempo with Axel Bleue likely to track close behind, creating a moderate gallop in this small field. The lack of genuine speed horses means the pace will be manageable rather than searching, allowing the field to stay in touch throughout. With only four runners and no confirmed tearaway leaders, this sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses to deliver late challenges. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up performers who can unleash finishing kicks over the final few fences.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Dominate

65% probability

If the pace stays moderate as expected with Hell Hound and Axel Bleue setting reasonable fractions.

The patient tactics of Loki's Mischief and Jack's Jury will prove decisive as they can quicken when it matters most over the final half-mile. Both hold-up horses are perfectly positioned to exploit the tactical race this will become.

Loki's MischiefJack's JuryHell HoundAxel Bleue

Prominent Pair Control

20% probability

If Hell Hound and Axel Bleue increase the tempo significantly from halfway and maintain their advantage.

The two prominent runners stretch the small field and their superior stamina reserves allow them to hold off late challenges from the closers. Hell Hound's recent win and Axel Bleue's hurdle form prove decisive.

Hell HoundAxel BleueLoki's MischiefJack's Jury

Hell Hound Wire-to-Wire

10% probability

If Hell Hound takes a commanding lead early and the others allow him too much rope.

His recent confidence boost from winning at Southwell carries him through as the pace becomes too searching for the hold-up horses to make up the ground. The 3-mile trip suits his staying power perfectly.

Hell HoundAxel BleueLoki's MischiefJack's Jury

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If all four runners go extremely slowly in the early stages creating a sprint finish.

The race becomes a pure test of speed rather than stamina, potentially suiting whichever horse has the sharpest turn of foot regardless of running style. Jack's Jury's hurdle speed could prove the difference in a blanket finish.

Jack's JuryHell HoundLoki's MischiefAxel Bleue

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hell Hound could struggle to repeat his Southwell win after 49 days off and facing a 6lb penalty

WATCH

Axel Bleue's recent pull-ups suggest potential fitness or attitude concerns that could resurface

NOTE

Loki's Mischief's quick return after just 15 days may indicate connections are confident about his wellbeing

WATCH

Jack's Jury needs to reverse recent form with Loki's Mischief despite receiving 7lb compensation

NOTE

The small field of four means any early mistake or jumping error will be extremely costly

4:50 — Adept GRP Cabinets Mares' Handicap Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)

3m · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Fox Wallace v O'Grady's HillHISTORIC

How it ran

O'Grady's Hill led, as the map showed.

Lynsey Larue won at 10.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Fox WallaceO'Grady's Hill

Prominent · 3

Bridget MaryJust A MemoryLynsey Larue

Midfield · 1

Shesupincourt

Hold Up · 1

Miss Pearl

Fox Wallace and O'Grady's Hill are the confirmed front runners, but Fox Wallace is a non-runner, leaving O'Grady's Hill as the likely sole pace-setter with Bridget Mary, Just A Memory, Lynsey Larue and Shesupincourt all holding prominent positions behind. With only one natural leader remaining, the pace will be steady rather than contested, allowing the field to stay in touch longer. The soft going and 3m trip will test stamina reserves in the final half-mile. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and have the class to outstay rivals when the tempo lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Bridget Mary Controls

45% probability

If the class horse settles well tracking O'Grady's Hill and stays the trip on testing ground.

Her recent Ffos Las win shows she handles the course and conditions perfectly, while her higher class rating should tell when others weaken. She can dictate from the front group and pull clear.

Bridget MaryJust A MemoryLynsey LarueShesupincourt

Stamina Test Finish

30% probability

If the soft ground and steady pace creates a gruelling stamina examination in the final mile.

The race becomes a true staying test where experience and proven stamina count most, favouring horses with point-to-point backgrounds. Lynsey Larue's dual point wins and Shesupincourt's versatility could prove decisive.

Lynsey LarueShesupincourtJust A MemoryBridget Mary

O'Grady's Hill Surprise

15% probability

If the front runner gets an easy lead and maintains it longer than expected on the testing ground.

With no pressure from other pace-setters, O'Grady's Hill could dictate at her own tempo and prove hard to peg back despite her poor recent form. Her trainer's decent 14-day record suggests she's primed for improvement.

O'Grady's HillLynsey LarueBridget MaryMiss Pearl

Miss Pearl Late Surge

10% probability

If the hold-up mare gets the strong pace and stamina test her style requires.

The soft ground and genuine gallop would set up perfectly for Miss Pearl's patient tactics, allowing her to conserve energy and finish strongly when others tire. Her past Bangor form suggests she has the ability when conditions align.

Miss PearlLynsey LarueBridget MaryShesupincourt

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch O'Grady's Hill in the market as any significant support would suggest stable confidence despite her terrible recent form string.

WATCH

Monitor Just A Memory for signs of fitness after 117 days absence, as she needs to be spot-on to justify her prominent market position.

NOTE

Watch how Bridget Mary travels in the early stages as she can get keen, and any pulling could compromise her stamina reserves.

WATCH

Check if Lynsey Larue's tongue-tie helps her settle better than at Ludlow where she disappointed after travelling well early.

NOTE

Observe the pace through the first mile as a slow tempo would compromise Miss Pearl's hold-up tactics significantly.

5:22 — Adept GRP Cabinets Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Miss Tiara to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Freddiemissmolli led; the map had Miss Tiara in front.

Kates Choice won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Miss Tiara

Prominent · 1

La Belle Argentee

Midfield · 4

Mya Du ClosFreddiemissmolliJlowForest Spirit

Hold Up · 3

Kates ChoiceBarafundle BayMystical Mabel

Miss Tiara has been withdrawn as a non-runner, removing the only confirmed front runner from this field. With La Belle Argentee as the sole prominent runner among eight hold-up horses, this creates an extremely weak early pace scenario. The lack of natural pace-setters means the early gallop will be pedestrian, with La Belle Argentee likely forced into an unnatural leading role she doesn't want. This tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can overcome the slow early tempo with late acceleration over the final 3-4 furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Crawling Early Pace

65% probability

If La Belle Argentee reluctantly leads with no pressure through halfway

The tepid gallop becomes a sprint finish where the best late finishers can unleash their strongest kicks. Hold-up horses with proven finishing speed get maximum opportunity to demonstrate their superiority in the closing stages.

Forest SpiritMystical MabelKates ChoiceBarafundle Bay

Moderate Tempo Set

20% probability

If La Belle Argentee commits to a stronger gallop from the outset

She creates just enough pace to string out the field moderately, but still allows closers to mount challenges. The race becomes more tactical with positioning crucial in the final half-mile.

La Belle ArgenteeForest SpiritMystical MabelKates Choice

Field Bunches Early

12% probability

If multiple horses vie for the lead in Miss Tiara's absence

An unexpected early battle develops as several hold-up horses get caught wide or forced forward. This creates genuine pace that could set up a different tactical dynamic entirely.

Kates ChoiceBarafundle BayJlowMya Du Clos

Complete Tactical Mess

3% probability

If no horse wants to make the running and they crawl for 2 miles

The race becomes farcical with a mad dash only in the final 4 furlongs. Whoever gets first run from the back has a crucial advantage in such chaotic circumstances.

FreddiemissmolliJlowForest SpiritMystical Mabel

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

La Belle Argentee could fold quickly if forced to make running throughout without Miss Tiara to share pace duties

WATCH

Forest Spirit's fitness after his long layoff - watch if he shows any signs of needing the run in closing stages

WATCH

Freddiemissmolli's finishing kick after 154-day absence - her tendency to fade could be exacerbated by rustiness

NOTE

Mystical Mabel's tactical positioning from her 3-claim jockey in such a slowly-run race

NOTE

The overall early pace - if genuinely crawling, the first horse to make a move could steal a decisive advantage

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 May 2026.

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