Archive›Fontwell · 22 September 2026

Fontwell

22 September 2026 · 6 races

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2:12 — Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Arbitration likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Virtual Rock won at 2.20 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Arbitration

Prominent · 1

Virtual Rock

Midfield · 2

Sun JoyTilehurst

Hold Up · 1

Goodwin Face

Arbitration is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and has a measured 26% chance of getting the lead; Virtual Rock and Sun Joy are genuine prominent types but will struggle to secure that position in a race where pace is concentrated. If Arbitration leads, it will set a steady, uncontested pace—the horse raced midfield last time and lacks the form to dominate, so any lead will be gettable late. This small field lacks the depth to create a truly hot race, which means front-runners have won 25% of races over this trip and going here, but hold-up horses have also thrived at 11.7% and are well placed to strike in the closing stages. The field contains three natural prominent racers (Tilehurst, Virtual Rock, Sun Joy) compressed into a small race where only one can truly hold the lead; only Arbitration appears positioned to get it, making this shape favour horses that can sit midfield or wait in reserve and pounce as Arbitration tires.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Arbitration leads, fades late

26% probability

If Arbitration gets the lead and sets an uncontested pace from flag to finish.

Arbitration's lack of recent form and history of not truly dominating means it will likely weaken in the closing two furlongs; a hold-up horse or stalker waiting in the wings will have every chance to strike. Front-runners have a strong record here, but only when truly dominant—this will not be one of those races.

Goodwin FaceTilehurstVirtual RockSun Joy

Prominent types battle early

30% probability

If Virtual Rock or Sun Joy secure a forward position and the three prominent-type runners jostle for control.

Multiple pace-setters in a small field often create a softer early tempo than expected, allowing hold-up runners to settle better and conserve energy. The disorder of a contested lead typically suits the closer, especially one as well-tried at this trip as Goodwin Face.

Goodwin FaceSun JoyArbitrationVirtual Rock

Tilehurst presses and holds

24% probability

If Tilehurst's recent habit of racing prominently and its solid record at Fontwell (1 win, 3 places from 5 runs) allow it to settle in a stalking role and strike.

Tilehurst has won here before and handles this ground; its prompt recent runs suggest a horse in form that can be ridden confidently without needing to lead from gate. The field is small enough that a prominent-runner profile that keeps its powder dry will have tactical room to pounce.

TilehurstGoodwin FaceVirtual RockArbitration

Goodwin Face waits and wins

20% probability

If hold-up tactics prevail and Goodwin Face, with 2 wins and 3 places from 4 runs on good ground, settles in reserve and delivers late.

Goodwin Face's 86-day absence is notable, but its proven record at this trip and going (2 wins in 4 runs) and its natural hold-up style position it to benefit from any early disorder or steady pace. A small field with only one measured pace-setter suits a closer that does not need to overcome a truly dominant rival.

Goodwin FaceTilehurstVirtual RockSun Joy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Goodwin Face's 86-day layoff is the longest absence in the field—watch for any signs of rust in the paddock or early movement.

WATCH

Tilehurst and Virtual Rock are both natural pacers fighting for the same space; if Virtual Rock takes the lead and fades as its record suggests, Tilehurst will be positioned to inherit and press home.

NOTE

Arbitration is the map's only confirmed front-runner but races out of its natural style; it will get the lead roughly once in four tries, so discount any scenario that depends on it truly dominating.

NOTE

Sun Joy's 104-day absence rivals Goodwin Face's layoff and is noteworthy; factored against its midfield placement in this compressed field, its winning chance is depressed.

2:47 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Tapley likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tapley and American Land led, as the map showed.

Tapley won at 3.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tapley

Prominent · 1

American Land

Midfield · 1

Jet Smart

Hold Up · 1

Lermoos Legend

Tapley is the only horse showing genuine front-running credentials in recent form, having led in 2 of its last 6 runs, and carries a 33% chance of getting to the front. American Land and Jet Smart are prominent racers by type but neither has the recent record to suggest they will press hard early, leaving the field light on pace pressure. If Tapley takes the lead it will do so without serious challenge and can dictate an uncontested gallop. This race shape favours a front-runner who can build a clear advantage and hold it — the course rewards front-runners strongly over this trip and ground — but only if that horse gets there cleanly. The field contains two other genuine prominent types (American Land and Jet Smart) mapped into midfield because there is not room for all three to race in their natural position; one of them may still arrive there, but neither is likely to dispute the lead early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tapley leads and holds

33% probability

If Tapley gets the better of the early exchanges and sets a steady pace.

Front-runners enjoy a strong record at Fontwell over 2m3½f on good ground and rarely face genuine pressure once established; Tapley, with form figures 2313-4 and a recent lead at this trip, will control the race from in front if left alone.

TapleyAmerican LandJet SmartLermoos Legend

American Land presses early

28% probability

If American Land takes a bold position early and American Land or Tapley trades blows in the first half.

A genuine stalker with a record of placing on good ground (2 of 4 runs at this going placed), American Land can sit just behind Tapley and outstay it in the second half when the early speed fades; prominent racers have won 12% of races over this trip but placed in nearly 29%, suiting a patient challenge.

American LandLermoos LegendTapleyJet Smart

Jet Smart raids from midfield

22% probability

If the pace collapses in the middle and Jet Smart, a five-time placer on good ground over similar distances, finds room to strike.

Jet Smart is out of its preferred position in a field with too many pace horses, but its record of placed finishes on this going (5 from 5) makes it dangerous if the early war of attrition opens a gap; hold-up horses have won 12% at this track and trip, a meaningful return on an uncrowded second half.

Jet SmartLermoos LegendAmerican LandTapley

Lermoos Legend waits and pounces

17% probability

If the frontrunners burn hard for two miles and Lermoos Legend, a recent winner at Fontwell with four placed finishes on good ground, arrives late with fresh legs.

At 11 years old and fresh off a placed run 14 days ago, Lermoos Legend suits a race that sets up for a closer; the hold-up profile at this venue wins at 12% and places at 23%, modest odds but consistent with a field organised around early pace.

Lermoos LegendJet SmartAmerican LandTapley

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tapley's 128-day absence means it may not jump off the bridle as expected; if it is sluggish to the front, American Land or Jet Smart could seize an unexpected lead and make the race.

WATCH

Jet Smart is a natural prominent racer stripped of that position and may struggle to find a profitable slot if the early pace is soft; monitor whether it can thread through the middle third.

NOTE

Lermoos Legend has not won in 2024 but its Fontwell form and consistent placement record on this going make it a live closer if the front two tire over the final furlong.

3:22 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1½f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

Causing Problems likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Causing Problems led, as the map showed.

Royal Sapphire won at 21.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Causing Problems

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Houndswood WillowRum DiamondOllierobJanteloven

Hold Up · 1

Royal Sapphire

Causing Problems is the only horse likely to contest the lead, with a measured 20% chance of getting there; no other runner has shown recent front-running form to challenge it. If it takes up the running, the pace will be uncontested and modest—a lone leader dictating without pressure creates a flat, straightforward race where early position matters but tempo control is weak. Hold-up horses have a strong record over this trip and going at Fontwell, winning at nearly 1.2 times the expected rate, while front-runners when they do get there win at 1.4 times expected; the pattern favours horses who can track and strike late, or who can press a weakening leader rather than those who rush to the front early. The field holds more horses suited to midfield and hold-up roles than can all secure those positions at once—Rum Diamond and Houndswood Willow are natural midfield types, but Causing Problems, mapped to the lead because it is the most likely pace-setter by default, is racing out of its hold-up style and carries discount accordingly. Favour backmarkers and stalkers to capitalise on a lack of genuine pace pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up strike late

38% probability

If Causing Problems leads softly and hold-up horses find room to run at the business end

A weak pace from an out-of-role leader invites closers to arrive fresh; juveniles on turf hurdles often lack stamina discipline, tiring visibly in the final furlongs and allowing late movers to pick them off. Hold-up profiles suit this trip and ground significantly better than the market expects, and an uncontested lead removes tactical cover from front-runners' usual advantage.

Royal SapphireOllierobHoundswood WillowJanteloven

Midfield stalkers pick it up

32% probability

If Rum Diamond or Houndswood Willow settle in touch and quicken past a tiring Causing Problems two furlongs out

Midfield racers on good ground over this distance have recorded consistent placings; neither Rum Diamond nor Houndswood Willow need a strong pace to be effective, and both can slot in behind a soft lead and accelerate when the moment suits. Their recent form on the same going and distance gives them the platform to dictate the finish.

Rum DiamondHoundswood WillowRoyal SapphireJanteloven

Causing Problems holds on

20% probability

If Causing Problems secures the lead and maintains it to the line, despite racing outside its true running style

A lightly-raced hold-up type forced to the front by the absence of other forward-going horses may find enough to repel one late challenge if the winning margin is narrow. This scenario demands Causing Problems to overcome its redistribution penalty and settle as a reluctant leader.

Causing ProblemsRum DiamondHoundswood WillowRoyal Sapphire

Lightly-raced improvers emerge

10% probability

If Janteloven or Ollierob, untested in maiden hurdle company, break through from midfield or rear with raw juvenile speed and inexperience of the field

Both are unraced or nearly so on the track and carry significant unknown going, making any strong run a surprise rather than a form expectation. Low probability reflects the baseline risk of unknown runners in a small field, though either could outrun modest established rivals if better than assessed.

JantelovenOllierobCausing ProblemsRum Diamond

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Causing Problems is mapped to lead despite holding-up in most recent runs; if it fails to take the lead or surrenders it early, the race becomes much more open and Rum Diamond and Houndswood Willow shift decisively into the frame.|

WATCH

Janteloven and Ollierob carry unknown going and minimal recent form; if either breaks through, it will reward backers of each-way plays and punish form-based selections.|

NOTE

Houndswood Willow's consistent placings on good ground from a yard in form (Tom Dascombe 0 wins but in-form on minors) suggest minimal downside if pace is soft; look for it to be tracking two furlongs out.|

3:57 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Prairie Diamond to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bright Legend and Atreides led; the map had Prairie Diamond in front.

Motazzen won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Prairie Diamond

Prominent · 3

Getaway With YouSiam ParkMotazzen

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

Bright LegendStarshine LegendAtreides

Prairie Diamond is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and is expected to lead from the flag; it has led in 4 of its last 5 runs and won last time out in front. Getaway With You will try to go with it or force matters early, but holds less consistent form and fades in the finish. The pace should be uncontested if Prairie Diamond gets the lead unchallenged, though Siam Park and Motazzen, both prominent racers, may track close enough to make a contest of it into the final two furlongs. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but this is a small field with limited pace pressure: the race will likely be decided by which horse can sustain effort longest in the closing stages rather than by early attrition. Hold-up horses are disadvantaged on this trip—stalkers and closers closing from midfield offer the better winning profile if the gallop fails to sort matters early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks up tiring leader

38% probability

If Prairie Diamond weakens in the closing furlong and a horse stalking from second or third gear finds running room

Bright Legend, Starshine Legend, or Atreides can track the early pace and accelerate past a tiring Prairie Diamond when it fades; hold-up horses underperform over this trip, but a stalker placed in the pocket has favourable odds on the turf. Front-runners win only 17% on similar ground and distance when pressed, so a leader that has carried the field along unsupported is vulnerable to a horse that has travelled smoothly in second or third.

Bright LegendStarshine LegendMotazzenSiam Park

Prairie Diamond dictates and holds on

30% probability

If Prairie Diamond establishes a clear lead and the field cannot close the gap into the home straight

Prairie Diamond's recent form is strong (led last time, won over similar ground), and an uncontested gallop plays to its strengths as a confirmed front-runner. The field lacks a horse with the recent form or pace credentials to challenge it decisively, so if it jumps well and settles, it can control the race from flag to finish.

Prairie DiamondGetaway With YouSiam ParkMotazzen

Prominent racers outpace the favourite

22% probability

If Motazzen or Siam Park attack early and lock onto Prairie Diamond's bridle, forcing a stronger pace that plays to their speed

Motazzen won recently over this trip on good ground and is weighted well; Siam Park has a strong record on good turf and can press forward. A contested gallop from the second mile suits horses that travel smoothly in the pack more than lone front-runners that have tired the field out, and both have placed regularly in strong fields.

MotazzenSiam ParkPrairie DiamondBright Legend

Closer arrives from off pace

10% probability

If the pace folds and no horse takes a clear lead in the first half of the race

Atreides and Starshine Legend hold form fresh from recent runs and could benefit from a loose pace that fails to sort the field early. Hold-up horses have underperformed over this trip historically, but a slowly run race can negate the advantage of the ground, and late runners can slip through if the early gallop stalls.

AtreidesStarshine LegendBright LegendSiam Park

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Prairie Diamond is the pace anchor and will set the tempo; if it gets the lead unchallenged it may prove difficult to reel in, but monitor its jumping at the first flight and whether it settles or pulls hard throughout.

WATCH

Motazzen and Siam Park are the only horses with recent form and pace credentials to pressure Prairie Diamond early; if both attack the leader at the same time, a faster early gallop could emerge and suit the prominent racers at the expense of the favourite.

NOTE

Bright Legend and Starshine Legend are both hold-up types in a small field where early pace is limited; they depend on the leader tiring, so watch for signs of fatigue in Prairie Diamond and other pacemakers from the home turn onwards.

WATCH

Getaway With You will try to go with Prairie Diamond but fades in the closing stages—if jockey Isabelle Ryder pushes it early to avoid being caught in a pocket, it will have little left in the final furlong and may be passed by fresher horses.

4:32 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Ballynaheer likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Yes Day won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ballynaheer

Prominent · 1

Yes Day

Midfield · 1

Balkardy

Hold Up · 1

Flashy Boy

Ballynaheer is the sole credible pace threat and will likely set or contest the lead from the outset, though it has not led in its last run and is being ridden by a claimer on a horse that has been away 115 days. Yes Day and Balkardy will race prominently but neither has the recent record of front-running to displace Ballynaheer early. If Ballynaheer does take the lead (45% chance on its form), it will dictate an uncontested pace with no challenger ready to press it hard. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but this advantage accrues only if the leader can hold sway — a vulnerable situation when the leader is a horse racing out of recent role, returning from a long absence with an inexperienced rider. This race shape favours a stalker or midfield runner that can pick up the pieces if Ballynaheer falters, or one of the prominent types (Yes Day, Balkardy) if they can capitalise on a tiring leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks up tiring lead

38% probability

If Ballynaheer leads but weakens in the closing stages.

A midfield or hold-up runner can exploit a faltering leader ridden by a claimer and returning from 115 days. This profile has been heavily underestimated in the market and rewards patience.

BalkardyFlashy BoyYes DayBallynaheer

Yes Day strong at the top

32% probability

If Yes Day settles prominently and finds extra in the straight.

Yes Day has a solid recent record in this class and can track any early gallop before picking up two lengths from home. Its record on good ground and consistent form make it a natural threat to any front-runner.

Yes DayBallynaheerBalkardyFlashy Boy

Ballynaheer holds on

22% probability

If Ballynaheer gets the lead, manages its 115-day absence, and fends off challengers.

The horse led last time and is well handicapped, but the jockey inexperience and long lay-off create genuine doubts. It would need a smooth, uncontested pace to get home — a scenario now less likely than not.

BallynaheerYes DayBalkardyFlashy Boy

Flashy Boy late flourish

8% probability

If front-runners tyre and a late runner finds room in the final furlong.

Flashy Boy has won once over this trip and shape, but has raced hold-up throughout its recent form and lacks the consistency to be favoured here. It arrives with odds well stacked against a viable setup.

Flashy BoyBalkardyYes DayBallynaheer

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ballynaheer's claimer rider Rian Corcoran (5 claims in 2024) has no win record on this horse and the 115-day lay-off compounds the risk of a mid-race fade if asked to lead throughout.

WATCH

Yes Day's form is placing-heavy (0 wins in last 4) — it must translate proximity into victory to justify favourite backing, and will need a clear run and a stalling leader.

NOTE

Balkardy has not won since leading briefly in a different race shape; monitor whether the midfield runners stay competitive into the straight or surrender the race to an early escape.

5:07 — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Lady Fortune likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Winston's Oath led; the map had Lady Fortune in front.

No Mean Feat won at 12.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lady Fortune

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Lucky In TaipanNo Mean FeatCalleroBacardi BlueMajor Major

Hold Up · 4

Winston's OathHawa JumeirahGuinness LadMidnight Pass

Lady Fortune is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and has a 24% chance of securing the lead; if she does, the pace will be uncontested and she will control from flag to finish. Winston's Oath (14% to lead) and Lucky In Taipan (12%) are secondary pace threats but neither has a strong record of going forward, so the race is unlikely to develop a true battle for the lead. The field contains five genuine hold-up types — Midnight Pass, Hawa Jumeirah, Bacardi Blue, No Mean Feat, Major Major and Callero — who are mapped to midfield only because there is no room at the back; most will race out of position and none is placed naturally to finish well. Front-runners have a strong record at this course and trip, while hold-up horses are poorly served: the race shape favours a horse that can either get the lead early (Lady Fortune) or finish from the front half of the field in a slowly run race, and heavily penalises closers who depend on a strong pace to reel in.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lady Fortune leads unchallenged

24% probability

If Lady Fortune gets away cleanly and Winston's Oath does not contest the pace from the start.

She will dictate an easy rhythm and hold the field at bay in the straight; front-runners at this trip and going are well backed by the data. Prominent racers struggle here and hold-up types fare worse still, so her position is nearly unbeatable.

Lady FortuneMidnight PassHawa JumeirahBacardi Blue

Slow pace, stalker finishes

32% probability

If Lady Fortune is not sent to the front early and the race is run at a pedestrian tempo in midfield.

A horse racing prominently but not leading — Lucky In Taipan, or one of the redistributed hold-up types who get a better pitch than expected — can pick up the pieces in the straight without requiring a fast pace to arrive late. This is the likeliest alternative because five hold-up types cannot all be buried, and some will race closer than their style prefers.

Lucky In TaipanGuinness LadLady FortuneWinston's Oath

Winston's Oath presses Lady Fortune

22% probability

If Winston's Oath challenges for the lead and a two-horse battle develops early.

The pair will set a contested pace but Winston's Oath fades in the finish, a pattern repeated in his recent form; Lady Fortune should repel him. Any horse that can stay within striking distance will benefit from the faster tempo.

Lady FortuneGuinness LadMidnight PassHawa Jumeirah

Closers rally late

22% probability

If the early pace collapses and a slow run race invites horses from deep to finish strongly.

Hold-up horses at this trip are poorly rewarded and the ones in this race are mostly out of form; those that do rally must overcome a structural disadvantage. Only if the pace dies entirely and one of Midnight Pass or Hawa Jumeirah time their run perfectly does a true closer profit.

Midnight PassHawa JumeirahBacardi BlueMajor Major

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lady Fortune is the lone front-runner and will dictate if she gets the lead; at 24% she is odds-on to be in front early, and the data strongly backs front-runners at this trip and going.

WATCH

Five hold-up types are forced to race out of their natural position because the field cannot accommodate them all at the back; expect chaotic mid-race tactics and one or more of Midnight Pass, Hawa Jumeirah, Bacardi Blue, No Mean Feat or Major Major to finish closer than expected.

NOTE

Winston's Oath has a clear finishing weakness in his recent form and will not see out the trip if he challenges Lady Fortune early; Guinness Lad pulled hard last time and may be difficult to control, risking a mad early gallop that ruins the pace.

NOTE

Lucky In Taipan has raced most recently (18 days) and his yard has had a winner in its last five runs; if the race turns into a slow war in midfield, he is the outsider best placed to finish well.

WATCH

Going is marked unknown at Fontwell; all pace and position work is based on the official good assessment, and any softening would significantly favour hold-up horses — a particular risk here given how many are struggling to find a natural position.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 22 September 2026.

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