Archive›Fontwell · 24 April 2026

Fontwell

24 April 2026 · 6 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

5:15 — Mercedes-Benz Of Chichester Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Soft · NOV · 7 runners

Lead contested: Grey Gamble v LisnamurricanFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Strong Run and Lisnamurrican led, as the map showed.

Strong Run won at 1.80 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Grey GambleLisnamurrican

Prominent · 3

Madmoiselle MossStrong RunThat Is Blue

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Pink PerjuryPrecious Jean

Lisnamurrican and Grey Gamble are confirmed early leaders who will contest the pace from the start, creating an honest gallop over this extended trip. Strong Run and That Is Blue will track the leaders in prominent positions, while the hold-up horses Pink Perjury and Precious Jean lack the ability to mount serious challenges. With two willing pace-setters ensuring a true test of stamina on soft ground over 2m5½f, this race strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and have the class to strike when the leaders tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Set Honest Pace

45% probability

If Lisnamurrican and Grey Gamble maintain a strong gallop throughout

The sustained pace will find out the weaker horses and set up the race for the classier prominent runners to strike in the final half-mile. Strong Run's recent hurdles form and That Is Blue's consistency will be crucial as the leaders weaken.

Strong RunLisnamurricanThat Is BlueGrey Gamble

Lisnamurrican Dominates Class

30% probability

If Henderson's mare gets an uncontested lead or Grey Gamble fades early

Despite her long absence, Lisnamurrican's superior class rating (OR 118) and proven soft ground form will tell as she controls the race from the front. Her jockey De Boinville will time the kick perfectly to ward off any late challengers.

LisnamurricanStrong RunGrey GambleThat Is Blue

Tactical Battle Develops

15% probability

If both leaders go too fast early and compromise each other

The pace setters will weaken dramatically in the final furlong, allowing the best of the prominent runners to come through late. Strong Run's recent winning form over hurdles makes him the most likely beneficiary of a collapse up front.

Strong RunThat Is BlueLisnamurricanGrey Gamble

Surprise from Outsider

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

Grey Gamble or That Is Blue could find extra reserves if the race falls apart, though both have question marks about their current form and ability respectively. This scenario requires the class horses to underperform significantly.

Grey GambleThat Is BlueStrong RunLisnamurrican

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lisnamurrican's fitness after 91 days off could see her fade dramatically if not fully wound up by Henderson

WATCH

Strong Run carries 7lbs more than rivals which could tell in testing ground conditions over this extended trip

NOTE

Grey Gamble's freshness after 155 days absence may help or hinder depending on Lavelle's preparation

WATCH

That Is Blue needs significant improvement from recent moderate form to compete with higher-rated rivals

NOTE

Wind operation on Precious Jean with tongue-tie added suggests connections hope for major improvement but form is dire

5:45 — KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m2f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Ballynaheer likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Carrigmoorna Rowan led; the map had Ballynaheer in front.

Gold Clermont won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ballynaheer

Prominent · 2

Le Galli BierMoonlit Potter

Midfield · 2

Carrigmoorna RowanSweet Nightingale

Hold Up · 2

Gold ClermontEdgewell

Ballynaheer will make the running from flag to finish as the sole confirmed front runner, setting a sustainable gallop that won't come under early pressure. With prominent runners like Carrigmoorna Rowan, Moonlit Potter and Le Galli Bier tracking but none forcing the pace, this creates a tempo that will build gradually through the 3m2f trip. The lack of pace pressure means the leaders can conserve energy for a prolonged finish where stamina becomes paramount. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses like Gold Clermont, Sweet Nightingale and Edgewell who can track the modest early pace and unleash late challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Artists Strike

50% probability

If Ballynaheer sets an even tempo without early pressure

The patient runners get the perfect setup to close strongly in the final half-mile when stamina tells. Gold Clermont and Sweet Nightingale benefit most from their ability to quicken late off a steady pace.

Gold ClermontSweet NightingaleEdgewellCarrigmoorna Rowan

Leaders Last Home

25% probability

If Ballynaheer's sustainable pace proves too strong for closers

The front-runner maintains his advantage while prominent trackers like Carrigmoorna Rowan pick up the pieces when late challenges fail to materialise. The moderate early gallop leaves enough in reserve for those who travelled well throughout.

BallynaheerCarrigmoorna RowanMoonlit PotterLe Galli Bier

Prominent Runners Perfect

15% probability

If the pace quickens from 2f out creating gaps

Horses like Le Galli Bier and Moonlit Potter positioned perfectly in behind the leader can strike when Ballynaheer tires but before hold-up horses get into gear. This intermediate running style proves optimal when the race fragments.

Le Galli BierMoonlit PotterBallynaheerSweet Nightingale

Pace Collapse Late

10% probability

If Ballynaheer goes too fast early and the race becomes crawling

The tempo becomes so steady that it turns into a sprint finish where class and tactical positioning matter more than stamina. Edgewell's recent winning form could prove decisive in a messy finish where anything can happen.

EdgewellGold ClermontSweet NightingaleCarrigmoorna Rowan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Moonlit Potter could repeat her unseating trick from Hereford if asked to force the pace early, potentially taking others down at the seventh fence.

WATCH

Ballynaheer's front-running tactics will dictate the entire race tempo - if he goes too fast early, it opens the door for patient hold-up horses.

NOTE

Gold Clermont returns after 41 days but her course win in January and strong going record suggests she could be primed for a big effort.

WATCH

Le Galli Bier faces stamina questions at 3m2f having never won in 13 starts, making him vulnerable if the pace becomes truly testing.

NOTE

Sweet Nightingale's 10-length breakthrough win suggests untapped potential that could be unleashed with patient hold-up tactics from Deutsch.

6:20 — KSR Lighting Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Calvino to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Precious Metal won at 4.33 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Calvino

Prominent · 2

Yellow StarValadon

Midfield · 1

Jackomy

Hold Up · 2

Precious MetalHe's A Latchico

Calvino is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting a sustainable pace given no pressure from other early leaders. He's A Latchico, Valadon and Yellow Star will track prominently behind the leader, while Precious Metal and Jackomy are hold-up horses who need the race to develop. With only one horse wanting the lead, this sets up as a steady gallop that will quicken from the home turn. This tactical scenario strongly favours the prominent runners who can track Calvino and kick when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Pounce

55% probability

If Calvino sets steady fractions and the prominent trackers get first run on him

The pace will be manageable early allowing He's A Latchico, Valadon and Yellow Star to travel comfortably before striking. This eliminates Calvino's front-running advantage and suits horses with tactical speed over pure stamina.

He's A LatchicoValadonYellow StarJackomy

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Calvino maintains his rhythm and sees off challenges from the home turn

His sustainable early pace will have him well within himself when others come to him. The lack of early pressure means he can dictate when to quicken and control the finish.

CalvinoJackomyValadonHe's A Latchico

Hold-Up Horses Surge

12% probability

If the early pace becomes truly pedestrian and the race becomes a sprint from 3f out

Precious Metal and Jackomy will benefit from a slowly-run contest that becomes all about finishing kick. Their patient tactics will pay dividends in a bunched finish.

JackomyPrecious MetalCalvinoValadon

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If Calvino stops or falls and the prominent runners are caught out of position

The race would become scrappy with no clear pace-setter, potentially suiting horses that can adapt quickly. This chaos scenario could benefit the most versatile performers.

Yellow StarHe's A LatchicoJackomyValadon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Yellow Star's recent falls and poor form suggest he could exit early and disrupt the field

WATCH

Calvino with inexperienced 5lb claimer Paddy Hanlon may not get ideal fractions if challenged early

NOTE

He's A Latchico's trainer Gary & Josh Moore running at 0/19 strike rate in last 14 days

WATCH

Precious Metal returning from long break after pulling up, fitness could be questionable

NOTE

Jackomy stepping up in grade after lower-level wins, faces stiffer test here

6:50 — V2 Radio Handicap Hurdle

3m2f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Has Troke likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Counteract led; the map had Has Troke in front.

West Orchard won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Has Troke

Prominent · 3

West OrchardFravancoShesupincourt

Midfield · 2

Approaching StormAmalfi Skyline

Hold Up · 3

Simon The SeagullMiss Jaffa CakeCounteract

Has Troke will lead with his confirmed front-running style, likely joined by West Orchard and possibly Fravanco in the early stages. The small field and 3m2f distance should produce a sustainable gallop rather than fierce early pace, with the genuine tempo building from the back straight. Multiple hold-up horses (Amalfi Skyline, Counteract, Simon The Seagull, Miss Jaffa Cake, Approaching Storm) will rely on the leaders maintaining honest pace throughout. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and front runners who can dictate terms without severe early pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Controls

45% probability

If Has Troke gets an uncontested lead and sustains gallop

The pace will be honest but not punishing, allowing him to kick clear approaching the last with West Orchard tracking. Hold-up horses will find too much ground to make up in the testing conditions.

Has TrokeWest OrchardFravancoAmalfi Skyline

Prominent Battle

30% probability

If West Orchard and Fravanco press Has Troke from halfway

The increased tempo will test stamina reserves but create a genuine gallop for closers. West Orchard's class and course form gives him the edge in a driving finish.

West OrchardHas TrokeAmalfi SkylineSimon The Seagull

Hold-Up Success

15% probability

If the early pace is too slow and leaders tire dramatically

Amalfi Skyline and Simon The Seagull will benefit from a sprint finish scenario on the testing ground. Their fresh legs will count most in a tactical affair turned into a staying test.

Amalfi SkylineSimon The SeagullWest OrchardCounteract

Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Has Troke goes too fast early under pressure and field bunches

The race becomes a lottery with tired leaders vulnerable to any horse with energy reserves. Counteract's long absence becomes irrelevant in a slowly-run staying test.

CounteractMiss Jaffa CakeApproaching StormShesupincourt

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Has Troke's jumping under pressure - any early mistakes will compromise his front-running tactics

WATCH

West Orchard's stamina at this extended trip - he's usually seen over shorter distances

WATCH

Counteract's fitness after 881 days off - stable debut following such a long layoff is unpredictable

NOTE

Amalfi Skyline and Simon The Seagull benefiting from claiming allowances in weak handicap

NOTE

Early pace development between Has Troke, West Orchard and Fravanco will determine tactical shape

7:20 — A.W. Jeffreys (Southampton) Ltd Handicap Chase

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 12 runners

Jaffa Cake to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Millies Mite led; the map had Jaffa Cake in front.

Majestic Moment won at 4.33 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jaffa Cake

Prominent · 4

HatosGorcombe MoonshineMillies MiteGreenways

Midfield · 3

King Of The StoryA Little SomethingBallybay

Hold Up · 4

KitsilanoIt's A BreezeMajestic MomentFourtwofour

Jaffa Cake provides the only confirmed pace angle as the sole front runner, but his recent form shows weakening tendencies which could create a false tempo early. With prominent runners Hatos, Gorcombe Moonshine, Greenways and Millies Mite likely to track close behind, the pace should be honest but not frantic over this 2m3½f trip on soft ground. The combination of one questionable leader and multiple prominent types suggests the pace will be sustainable early before quickening from the back of the last fence. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish, particularly those with proven soft ground form like Kitsilano, Majestic Moment and A Little Something.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapses Late

45% probability

If Jaffa Cake stops quickly and the prominent runners fail to pick up the tempo sufficiently

The race becomes a sprint finish where stamina at the trip becomes secondary to a sharp turn of foot. Hold-up horses with class like Kitsilano and Majestic Moment can unleash finishing kicks that the pace-tracking horses cannot match.

KitsilanoMajestic MomentA Little SomethingKing Of The Story

Honest Gallop Throughout

30% probability

If the prominent runners maintain pressure after Jaffa Cake weakens turning in

A true test of stamina develops where horses need to have traveled well and jump the last three fences under pressure. Those who have raced prominently but with something left can edge out pure closers who get too much to do.

HatosGorcombe MoonshineKitsilanoMajestic Moment

Strong Early Pace

15% probability

If Jaffa Cake goes off hard early or if multiple prominent runners challenge him for the lead

The pace becomes unsustainable and causes the front division to come back markedly in the straight. Pure hold-up horses get the perfect setup but need the class and finishing kick to capitalize on the strong early gallop.

A Little SomethingKing Of The StoryIt's A BreezeBallybay

Messy Scramble

10% probability

If jumping errors or falls significantly disrupt the field and destroy the race rhythm

The contest becomes about who can adapt best to the changing circumstances and who has the tactical speed to capitalize on gaps. Prominent runners who avoid trouble and can quicken when others are struggling gain the advantage.

Millies MiteGreenwaysHatosGorcombe Moonshine

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jaffa Cake's jumping and stamina reserves as the lone leader, as any early departure leaves the field without clear pace

WATCH

How quickly the prominent runners Hatos, Gorcombe Moonshine and Millies Mite commit to tracking the leader through the early stages

NOTE

Whether Kitsilano and Majestic Moment can secure good positions early enough to unleash their finishing kicks without getting too far back

WATCH

King Of The Story's fitness levels after 148 days off, particularly how he travels through the middle stages of the race

NOTE

The jumping of It's A Breeze and A Little Something on their respective returns to chasing action over fences

7:50 — Fontwell Park Weddings & Events Handicap Hurdle

2m3f · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners

My Lovely Horse to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hiero Sport led; the map had My Lovely Horse in front.

Hiero Sport won at 9.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

My Lovely Horse

Prominent · 5

Calshot SpitBlue UniverseSpanish DancerSuperstylinNelson Gate

Midfield · 3

Easter IconHiero SportChosen Bae

Hold Up · 4

Jefe TriunfoBushstreet BowmanBread And ButterDontaskchris

My Lovely Horse is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting a steady pace without pressure from other leaders. The prominent racers like Superstylin, Blue Universe, Calshot Spit and Hiero Sport will track the leader closely, creating a compact group through the early stages. With multiple hold-up horses including Jefe Triunfo, Bread And Butter, Dontaskchris and Bushstreet Bowman needing to be produced late, the race will develop into a tactical affair where positioning matters crucially. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers who can stay close to My Lovely Horse and kick when the tempo lifts, rather than hold-up horses who may struggle to make up ground on the testing ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

55% probability

If My Lovely Horse sets steady fractions and the prominent group stays compact

The likes of Superstylin, Blue Universe and Calshot Spit can track the leader easily and have first run on the hold-up horses when the pace quickens. Their tactical positioning proves decisive as the soft ground makes it harder for back-markers to close effectively.

SuperstylinCalshot SpitBlue UniverseHiero Sport

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If My Lovely Horse gets an easy lead and has enough left in the tank

With no pace pressure early, My Lovely Horse can control the race completely and may have enough stamina reserves to hold off late challengers. The reduced weight advantage and lack of early pressure could be decisive factors.

My Lovely HorseSuperstylinHiero SportEaster Icon

Hold-Up Success

12% probability

If the pace becomes too strong mid-race and prominent horses tie up

Strong early gallop between the prominent horses allows hold-up specialists like Jefe Triunfo and Dontaskchris to pick up the pieces late. The testing conditions suit horses with a strong finishing kick who haven't been involved in early battles.

Jefe TriunfoDontaskchrisBread And ButterChosen Bae

Complete Longshot Victory

8% probability

If the main contenders all encounter trouble or the pace collapses completely

Chaos in running or an exceptionally weak pace allows an outsider like Nelson Gate or Spanish Dancer to steal the race. Multiple fallers or a tactical mess creates opportunities for horses with minimal winning chances.

Nelson GateSpanish DancerChosen BaeBushstreet Bowman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

My Lovely Horse getting too keen early could compromise his stamina reserves for the finish

WATCH

Superstylin's jumping under pressure as his last run was a fall at Plumpton

WATCH

Jefe Triunfo bouncing back dramatically after being tailed off on reappearance 18 days ago

NOTE

Blue Universe handling the step back up in class after 78 days off

NOTE

The pace development through the first mile as it will determine which hold-up horses have chances

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 24 April 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →