2:30 — Bet 30 Get 5 Weekly betstgeorge.com Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m5½f · Good · NOV · 3 runners
Ka Mate Du Brivet to leadFREEHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ka Mate Du Brivet
Prominent · 1
Broomfield Aderra
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Willshebe Court
Ka Mate Du Brivet will take this race by the scruff of the neck from the start as the only confirmed front-runner in a small field. With Broomfield Aderra likely to sit handy but not apply early pressure, and Willshebe Court dropping in behind, Ka Mate Du Brivet can dictate a comfortable rhythm through the early stages before the pace inevitably quickens from three out.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Ka Mate Wire-to-Wire
45% probability
If Ka Mate Du Brivet jumps cleanly and maintains rhythm throughout
The leader sets sustainable fractions without pressure and has enough in reserve to repel late challenges. Broomfield Aderra and Willshebe Court both come with their runs but cannot peg back the pacesetter who has controlled the race from start to finish.
Ka Mate Du BrivetBroomfield AderraWillshebe Court
B
Prominent Aderra Strikes
30% probability
If Broomfield Aderra travels strongly in second and Ka Mate Du Brivet weakens
The recent winner sits perfectly in behind the pace and moves smoothly into contention turning for home. Ka Mate Du Brivet's early exertions tell in the final half-mile as Broomfield Aderra's superior recent form shows.
Broomfield AderraKa Mate Du BrivetWillshebe Court
C
Hold-up Willshebe Surprise
15% probability
If the early pace is too strong and the front two come back to the closer
Ka Mate Du Brivet and Broomfield Aderra engage too early in the straight after a searching pace. Willshebe Court, who has been patiently ridden throughout, finds a turn of foot that the pace-exposed leaders cannot match in the final furlong.
Willshebe CourtBroomfield AderraKa Mate Du Brivet
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If Ka Mate Du Brivet makes jumping errors and the race becomes messy
The leader's mistakes disrupt the rhythm and create a stop-start affair that suits none of the runners ideally. The race becomes a battle of attrition rather than class, with whoever stays on their feet longest prevailing in a tight finish.
Broomfield AderraWillshebe CourtKa Mate Du Brivet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ka Mate Du Brivet's jumping under pressure - any significant errors will hand initiative to Broomfield Aderra
WATCH
Broomfield Aderra's position early - if too keen or too far back the race dynamic changes completely
NOTE
Willshebe Court's early enthusiasm - any signs of pulling hard would compromise hold-up tactics
WATCH
The pace through the middle mile - if Ka Mate Du Brivet goes too fast it opens door for closers
NOTE
Ground conditions on the day - any softening would particularly suit Broomfield Aderra's recent form profile
3:00 — Join Bet St George "Hands And Heels" Handicap Hurdle (ConditionalsAmateurs) (Racing Excellence)
2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Motazzen to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Motazzen
Prominent · 3
Peking OperaVendantKylenoe Dancer
Midfield · 1
Wot You Wearing
Hold Up · 2
GodotGeordies Betty
Motazzen will take the field along from the front with minimal pressure, given his clear preference for leading and lack of other committed front-runners. Peking Opera, Vendant and Kylenoe Dancer may press forward early but are more likely to settle prominently rather than challenge Motazzen's lead directly. This creates a potentially tactical affair where the hold-up horses Geordies Betty, Godot and Wot You Wearing can be delivered late if the pace becomes crawling.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Motazzen Controls Throughout
35% probability
If Motazzen dictates a moderate pace without serious early pressure from the prominent runners
The leader builds a decisive advantage turning for home while the hold-up horses struggle to close from too far back. Motazzen's superior strike rate on good ground and front-running ability proves decisive in a slowly-run contest.
MotazzenPeking OperaVendantKylenoe Dancer
B
Late Surge Prevails
30% probability
If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and the field bunches up approaching the final flight
The race becomes a sprint finish where the fresher hold-up horses can unleash their kicks. Geordies Betty's recent good form and closing style proves most effective when delivered with a perfectly-timed challenge.
Geordies BettyGodotWot You WearingMotazzen
C
Prominent Pair Strike
25% probability
If Peking Opera and Vendant press Motazzen early enough to ensure a genuine gallop throughout
The sustained pace stretches the field and favors those who can travel strongly in the leading group. Vendant's recent runner-up effort and prominent style gives him the edge over his similarly-positioned rivals in a truly-run race.
VendantPeking OperaKylenoe DancerMotazzen
D
Surprise Package Emerges
10% probability
If the race unfolds chaotically with multiple pace collapses or interference at crucial stages
The disrupted rhythm suits a horse who can adapt quickly to changing circumstances. Kylenoe Dancer's recent win and ability to race prominently while finishing strongly makes him best-placed to capitalize on any confusion.
Kylenoe DancerWot You WearingGeordies BettyVendant
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Motazzen's jumping under pressure - if he makes any significant errors while being challenged, his front-running advantage disappears completely.
WATCH
Early positioning of Peking Opera and Vendant - if both press Motazzen simultaneously, they could create the strong gallop that favors the closers.
WATCH
Geordies Betty's position turning for home - she needs to be within striking distance as her closing kick is her main weapon.
NOTE
Godot's jumping rhythm - his hold-up style requires confident jumping to maintain position for his late challenge.
NOTE
The pace through the first mile - if Motazzen is allowed to crawl early, the hold-up horses face an impossible task from too far back.
3:30 — betstgeorge.com Top Prices On English Events Handicap Chase
2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners
Ronnies Reflection likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ronnies Reflection
Prominent · 2
Valirann GoldDaring Plan
Midfield · 2
Engaging SamTom Desjy
Hold Up · 2
KitsilanoRoyal Juniper
Ronnies Reflection will likely lead from the start with no confirmed front runner to challenge, setting a comfortable pace that should suit his rhythm. The field composition creates a race where the prominent runners (Valirann Gold, Daring Plan, Engaging Sam) will track the leader in the early stages, while the hold-up horses (Kitsilano, Royal Juniper, Tom Desjy) will need the pace to collapse or gaps to appear late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Favors Leader
35% probability
If Ronnies Reflection gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm
The leader controls from the front while prominent runners struggle to make inroads on soft ground. Ronnies Reflection's recent soft ground form (2nd twice at this trip) proves decisive.
Ronnies ReflectionValirann GoldDaring PlanEngaging Sam
B
Hold-Up Horse Strikes Late
30% probability
If the early pace becomes steady enough for closers to be effective
Kitsilano or Royal Juniper time their runs perfectly as the leaders tire in testing conditions. Kitsilano's superior rating and recent heavy ground win become crucial factors.
If Valirann Gold or Daring Plan can stay close enough to challenge
One of the prominent runners gets first run on the leader approaching the last fence. Valirann Gold's consistency on similar going gives him the edge over Daring Plan's longer absence from winning.
If the favorites become embroiled in a battle and tire
Engaging Sam stays out of trouble and benefits from a strong pace that sets up his late kick. His recent soft ground runs show gradual improvement that could peak here.
Engaging SamTom DesjyKitsilanoValirann Gold
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Tom Desjy has a concerning pattern of fading in the finish and minimal soft ground data to rely on
WATCH
Daring Plan returns from good ground racing and hasn't won on soft going in his last 11 attempts on similar conditions
WATCH
Royal Juniper needs the race to develop perfectly as a hold-up horse with limited recent soft ground runs
NOTE
Ronnies Reflection's jumping under pressure if challenged, as he's been allowed easy leads recently
NOTE
Whether Kitsilano gets the strong pace his hold-up style requires to be effective from the rear
4:00 — England To Win Tonight 20/1 betstgeorge.com Maiden Hurdle (Novices' Champ Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB)
2m1½f · Soft · NOV · 9 runners
Unknown Entity likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Unknown Entity
Prominent · 3
Grizzled SquirrelGraeme The GreyJambon
Midfield · 2
Last RoundTrooper
Hold Up · 3
The QuantKhalk'eau SpigaoI'm Wide Awake
Unknown Entity is the clear pace-setter with extensive soft ground experience and should set a manageable tempo without pressure from behind. The field splits between prominent runners (Jambon, Grizzled Squirrel, Graeme The Grey, Last Round) who will track closely and hold-up horses (Khalk'eau Spigao, The Quant, I'm Wide Awake) who need the race to develop, creating a moderate gallop that could suit either style.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running
35% probability
If Unknown Entity gets uncontested lead and dictates fractions
Unknown Entity maintains control throughout while prominent runners struggle to reel him in on testing ground. His proven stamina over longer trips gives him edge in sustained drive to line.
Unknown EntityGraeme The GreyLast RoundJambon
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
30% probability
If pace becomes steady allowing prominent runners to stay close
Graeme The Grey or Grizzled Squirrel travel smoothly in Unknown Entity's slipstream before quickening decisively. Their tactical speed proves decisive when pace lifts approaching final hurdle.
Grizzled SquirrelGraeme The GreyUnknown EntityLast Round
C
Hold-Up Horse Surge
25% probability
If pace collapses early allowing back markers time to organize
The Quant or I'm Wide Awake get perfectly timed runs from rear as prominent pack comes back to them. Despite finishing concerns, one gets up in final strides with superior class telling.
The QuantI'm Wide AwakeKhalk'eau SpigaoGrizzled Squirrel
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If Unknown Entity goes too slow creating bunched field turning in
Entire field remains in contention turning for home creating messy finish where any horse could prevail. Lower-rated runners benefit from chaotic finish where class matters less than position.
JambonLast RoundI'm Wide AwakeTrooper
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Unknown Entity may get too easy lead early if prominent runners don't track close enough through first mile
WATCH
The Quant and Trooper both show concerning fading patterns that could repeat over this demanding trip
NOTE
Grizzled Squirrel's jumping under pressure needs monitoring as previous errors have cost positions
WATCH
I'm Wide Awake requires strong pace development to be effective from customary hold-up position
NOTE
Graeme The Grey's prominent position could become liability if Unknown Entity increases tempo suddenly
4:30 — betstgeorge.com With Daily St George Specials Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) (GBB Race)
2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
The Gypsy Davey to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
The Gypsy Davey
Prominent · 3
Mon ChampionLe Galli BierKoenigsstern
Midfield · 2
Alright DaiSuperstylin
Hold Up · 2
Alien StormRip Wheeler
The Gypsy Davey will lead uncontested with Mon Champion, Koenigsstern, and Le Galli Bier content to sit prominent behind him, creating a moderate tempo through the first circuit. This comfortable pace strongly favors the hold-up horses Alien Storm, Superstylin, Alright Dai, and Rip Wheeler who can unleash late challenges over the final 3-4 furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Brigade Dominates
45% probability
If The Gypsy Davey maintains a steady tempo without early pressure
The pace becomes too slow for the prominent runners to sustain their kicks, allowing the back markers to sweep past in the final furlong. Alien Storm's class advantage and Superstylin's soft ground form prove decisive.
Alien StormSuperstylinAlright DaiRip Wheeler
B
Prominent Battle Success
30% probability
If Mon Champion or Koenigsstern press The Gypsy Davey from halfway creating genuine tempo
The increased pace stretches the field and prevents the hold-up horses from making up enough ground in the closing stages. Mon Champion's superior rating tells over the last fence.
If The Gypsy Davey gets an armchair ride and finds extra reserves in the straight
His uncontested lead becomes unassailable as the chasers struggle to close the gap despite the moderate pace. The front-runner's tactical advantage overcomes his rating disadvantage.
The Gypsy DaveyMon ChampionKoenigssternAlien Storm
D
Tactical Speed Battle
10% probability
If multiple prominent runners engage early creating a fierce tempo from the 3rd fence
The genuine pace collapses the field in the straight, allowing a mid-pack horse with tactical speed to strike. Fresh legs prove more valuable than pure class or position.
Le Galli BierAlright DaiRip WheelerSuperstylin
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if The Gypsy Davey gets pressured early by Mon Champion or Koenigsstern as this transforms the race dynamic completely.
WATCH
Monitor Alien Storm's jumping rhythm early as any mistakes will compromise his ability to make up the ground from the rear.
NOTE
Check if Superstylin travels smoothly in the back half as his soft ground expertise could prove decisive if positioned well.
WATCH
Observe Mon Champion's position at halfway as he needs to be closer than usual to utilize his class advantage effectively.
NOTE
Watch for tactical moves from Le Galli Bier who might need to be more prominent than usual to capitalize on any pace collapse.
5:05 — Bet St George Supports Safer Gambling Handicap Hurdle
2m1½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
Test The Market likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Test The Market
Prominent · 1
Juggernaut
Midfield · 4
BridgeMistress FoxJacquettaTommy Dillion
Hold Up · 2
Hello CelloDr Waksman
Test The Market provides the only confirmed front-running threat in this small field, likely to set a measured gallop without pressure from the prominent Juggernaut. The five hold-up horses (Hello Cello, Bridge, Dr Waksman, Tommy Dillion, Mistress Fox) create a bunched finish scenario where the soft ground will test stamina reserves over the extended 2m1½f trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Wins
40% probability
If Test The Market gets soft fractions and avoids mistakes
Test The Market dictates from the front without pressure, maintaining enough in reserve to repel late challengers. The hold-up brigade arrives too late on ground that saps their finishing kick.
Test The MarketJuggernautHello CelloBridge
B
Hold-Up Horse Prevails
35% probability
If the pace becomes steady and hold-up horses get clear runs
Hello Cello and Bridge time their challenges perfectly as Test The Market weakens in the final furlong. The soft ground plays to their patient tactics and stamina reserves.
Hello CelloBridgeDr WaksmanTest The Market
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If Juggernaut sits closer and Test The Market sets too strong a pace
Juggernaut travels easily in second, inheriting the lead when Test The Market cracks, then holding off the hold-up challenge. The prominent position proves ideal in testing conditions.
JuggernautTest The MarketHello CelloTommy Dillion
D
Outsider Emerges Late
10% probability
If Tommy Dillion or Dr Waksman find clear passage and improve for conditions
Tommy Dillion's heavy ground form (2 wins from 15) comes to the fore as the field compacts turning for home. Dr Waksman benefits from patient tactics in his preferred soft conditions.
Tommy DillionDr WaksmanBridgeHello Cello
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Test The Market's jumping and stamina reserves as the only pace-setter on testing ground
WATCH
Hello Cello and Bridge getting clear runs in the final two furlongs from their hold-up positions
NOTE
Juggernaut's positioning early - sitting too close could compromise his finishing effort
WATCH
Tommy Dillion's early progress - his heavy ground wins suggest he could outrun his rating
NOTE
The pace through the first mile - too fast will favor hold-up horses, too slow helps Test The Market
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.