2:20 — Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Royal Rhythm likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Royal Rhythm and Clever Relation and Kings Order led, as the map showed.
Royal Rhythm won at 4.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Royal Rhythm
Prominent · 1
Atreides
Midfield · 2
Clever RelationKings Order
Hold Up · 2
Jefe TriunfoCounty Champs
Royal Rhythm is the sole confirmed front-runner in this six-runner conditional jockeys' handicap and, with no rival likely to seriously contest for the lead, Benjamin Macey should be able to dictate a controlled, metronomic gallop over Fontwell's undulating 2m5½f trip. The four hold-up types — Jefe Triunfo, County Champs, Clever Relation and Kings Order — will all be sitting in behind, meaning the closing burst depends heavily on Royal Rhythm either weakening or the pace being strong enough to set up a late challenge. Atreides, the only other prominent-style runner, may push forward to give Royal Rhythm some company but lacks the profile to dominate. This race shape strongly favours a horse that can travel prominently, control the tempo, and quicken from the front — Royal Rhythm's profile suits perfectly, and true closers face the additional risk that a moderate pace in a small field leaves them with too much to find late. Clever Relation and Kings Order, though genuine hold-up types, have been pushed into the midfield mapping because the race cannot physically accommodate all four rear-runners at the back — both are operating out of their natural zone relative to what the race shape offers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Royal Rhythm Controls Wire-to-Wire
68% probability
If Royal Rhythm secures the lead unchallenged and sets a comfortable, measured gallop that suits his front-running style.
Macey settles Royal Rhythm in front, the modest pace draws no serious challenge until the last flight, and a horse that has won over this trip on good going simply has the race run to suit. The small field and lack of a pace rival means stamina is managed perfectly, and Royal Rhythm's recent course form over 20f on good going backs up the profile.
Royal RhythmAtreidesCounty ChampsJefe Triunfo
B
Closers Storm Late
16% probability
If Royal Rhythm sets a faster-than-expected clip and the race develops into a truly-run stamina test from the front.
County Champs, a consistent placer over marathon trips on good ground, and Jefe Triunfo, who handles this surface well, get into the race late as Royal Rhythm's lead is eroded in the final half-mile. Both have the stamina pedigree for 2m5½f on a fair surface, though they need tempo to be injected.
County ChampsJefe TriunfoAtreidesRoyal Rhythm
C
Prominent Duo Duel Late
10% probability
If Atreides tracks Royal Rhythm closely and turns the final stages into a two-horse battle of the prominent types.
Atreides has placed at OR 94 with a prominent style and could simply sit a length off Royal Rhythm before launching a challenge at the last; if Royal Rhythm is caught cold by this pressure, Atreides's superior rating relative to the hold-up horses becomes relevant. The closers are left with too much to peg back from midfield if the two prominent types race away.
AtreidesRoyal RhythmCounty ChampsKings Order
D
Chaos and Reshuffling
6% probability
If early fallers, unseats or a race incident force a complete tactical reshuffle that negates the front-runner's advantage.
With Clever Relation and Kings Order bumped out of their preferred hold-up spots and operating at lower-than-natural efficiency, a chaotic scenario could theoretically see these unexposed or fresher horses (Kings Order is only five) profit from a messy race. The probability is low precisely because both are operating out of their true style and their trainer's 14-day record provides no statistical support.
Watch Royal Rhythm's early sections — if Benjamin Macey (claiming 3lbs) fails to establish control and Atreides presses him into a faster gallop than intended, the whole race shape flips from front-runner dominance to a stamina slog that reopens the race for County Champs and Jefe Triunfo.
WATCH
Jefe Triunfo's 96-day absence is the longest in the field; Chris Gordon sends him out fresh and if he jumps well on return he could show more finishing speed than his held-up profile suggests, particularly if the pace is genuine.
WATCH
Clever Relation and Kings Order are both true hold-up horses forced wide of their natural territory by the field composition — if either is ridden more aggressively than their style suggests, it could create mid-race interference or traffic issues over Fontwell's tight turns.
NOTE
County Champs ran just 14 days ago and has placed twice over 24f on good going — monitor the market for late Fern O'Brien support, as this runner's reliable placed record on similar ground is the most consistent closer profile in the race.
2:55 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Maiden Hurdle (gbb Race)
2m3f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners
Novelista likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Novelista and Anzac Day led, as the map showed.
Moab won at 2.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Novelista
Prominent · 1
Coastal Command
Midfield · 1
Downtown Nashville
Hold Up · 2
Anzac DayMoab
Novelista is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-runner maiden hurdle over 2m3f at Fontwell, and with no rival likely to press hard for the lead, she will set whatever tempo she chooses from the front. Coastal Command is the other prominent-style runner but arrives after 273 days off and is unlikely to pick a fight for the front, leaving Novelista in full control of the fractions. Downtown Nashville's style is unclear given limited evidence, while Anzac Day and Moab are both held-up types who will be dependent on Novelista not making this too easy for herself. The resulting shape — a single uncontested leader dictating a likely steady-to-moderate gallop over this stamina trip — strongly favours prominent or front-running profiles, and in particular any horse able to travel close to Novelista and produce a clean jumping round, though the hold-up runners will need the pace to lift sufficiently in the final circuit to make their finishing kicks meaningful.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Novelista Controls Unchallenged
72% probability
If Novelista bowls along uncontested and sets a true-enough gallop that rewards those racing prominently throughout.
Novelista dictates from the front on her own terms, and without pressure she can conserve energy before quickening away from the final hurdle; the runner most likely to profit is whichever prominent tracker can match her jumping and grind on. Coastal Command, if fit enough from a 273-day absence, is best placed to sit in her slipstream and pick up the pieces, while Downtown Nashville's uncertain style means he could also find himself in a useful pressing position.
Coastal CommandDowntown NashvilleNovelistaMoab
B
Hold-Up Runners Pounce Late
14% probability
If Novelista sets a genuinely honest gallop that strings the field out and the hold-up horses get a strong-enough pace to aim at in the closing stages.
Moab, with the most consistent placed form under similar going conditions and solid placing in recent outings, could be delivered late to challenge if the race develops at sufficient pace to bring his stamina into play. Anzac Day has the highest OR at 120 and hold-up credentials, but his form line shows a string of finishes from fifth to seventh and he needs stronger pace than one uncontested leader typically generates.
MoabAnzac DayDowntown NashvilleCoastal Command
C
Pace Collapse, Leader Tires
9% probability
If Novelista, racing out of her comfort zone given the STYLE_FIT flag, sets a false gallop before fading and opening the door for a late surge.
A STYLE_FIT score of 0.93 flags that Novelista may not be entirely comfortable front-running at this level, and if she over-exerts early before weakening, the race fragments late. Moab's consistent placed form and Anzac Day's class on OR could allow a hold-up type to sweep past a strung-out field in the straight.
MoabAnzac DayCoastal CommandDowntown Nashville
D
Outsider Stuns Field
5% probability
If the race is run at an uneven gallop causing errors or interference that resets the field, allowing a less-fancied runner to capitalise on chaos.
In a small field over the demanding Fontwell circuit, jumping errors or a stumble by a rival could promote Downtown Nashville or Anzac Day into an unexpected winning position irrespective of pace shape. This is a low-probability disruption scenario, not a pace-driven outcome.
Downtown NashvilleAnzac DayMoabCoastal Command
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Coastal Command shows any signs of ring-rustiness after 273 days off — if he moves fluently through his hurdles early, his prominent position makes him the most dangerous challenger to Novelista.
WATCH
Novelista's STYLE_FIT flag of 0.93 signals a potential mismatch between her mapped role and natural comfort zone — monitor her jumping and gallop rhythm early; if she labours or makes errors, the hold-up runners will be brought into play much sooner than expected.
WATCH
Moab has run 16 days ago and arrives with solid placed form, but in a race where pace is likely to be moderate, watch whether Brendan Powell angles for a more prominent position than usual to avoid being left with too much ground to make up.
NOTE
Downtown Nashville's true running style remains unresolved from a thin form book — Sean Bowen's positioning in the first mile will clarify which scenario is most likely to unfold and could be the decisive tactical factor in a small field.
3:30 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Chase
3m2f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Edgewell to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Edgewell led, as the map showed.
Of Corse I Can won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Edgewell
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 3
The Kings SoldierFrankie FaulknerOf Corse I Can
Hold Up · 2
Gata BanUnspeakable
Edgewell is the sole confirmed front-runner in this six-runner field and should stride into an uncontested lead from the outset over 3m2f at Fontwell, setting a measured, controllable tempo with no rival willing or able to seriously challenge for the position. Behind him, Gata Ban and Unspeakable are genuine hold-up types who will track from the rear, while The Kings Soldier, Frankie Faulkner, and Of Corse I Can are also natural hold-up horses redistributed to midfield on the map — this field holds significantly more off-the-pace types than the shape can accommodate, meaning none of those three is likely to secure a prominent position naturally. With Edgewell dictating a sustainable gallop and no pressure from rivals, he controls the fractions entirely, which classically rewards the leader and any horse capable of travelling close enough to pounce at the second-last. The tactical verdict is clear: this race shape strongly favours Edgewell leading from the front, with any runner who can track him without losing ground through the race — rather than making up ground from deep — best positioned to benefit.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Edgewell Controls Unchallenged
68% probability
If Edgewell bowls along in front at a fair pace and none of the hold-up brigade can close the gap on the final circuit.
Edgewell dictates every yard, conserves energy with no challenger, and his strong record at this trip and similar going (4 wins from 15) means he is hard to reel in when fresh and in front; his 9-day turnaround under Nick Scholfield's patient handling suggests he arrives ready.
EdgewellGata BanUnspeakableThe Kings Soldier
B
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
16% probability
If Edgewell's pace proves just slow enough to allow a fresh, well-handicapped hold-up horse to close strongly from the final fence.
Gata Ban has won twice at this trip on similar going and Dylan Johnston can time a challenge to perfection from the rear; Unspeakable, returning from 75 days off but with a 2nd at this course and distance on good ground, could be sharper than he looks on a flat handicap rating of 78.
Gata BanUnspeakableEdgewellFrankie Faulkner
C
Prominent Type Disrupts Shape
10% probability
If one of the redistributed hold-up horses — most likely Frankie Faulkner or The Kings Soldier — pushes forward unexpectedly and forces a contested early pace.
A more pressured tempo would compress the field and could undermine Edgewell's winning chance if he burns fuel too early, opening the door for a horse with a strong finishing effort; however, with all three redistributed runners carrying a STYLE_FIT discount of 0.93, this scenario demands they race entirely against type.
If jumping errors or a falter at a fence disrupts the lead or causes interference mid-race, scrambling the tactical order.
A horse like Of Corse I Can, who has been consistent at trips around 21–26f on good ground and carries light weight at 145lbs with a 3lb claimer, could pick through a messy finish; the chaotic shape would suit whoever avoids trouble, not whoever holds the best tactical position.
Of Corse I CanUnspeakableGata BanEdgewell
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Edgewell has won back-to-back races and arrives 9 days fresh — watch whether Nick Scholfield sends him forward immediately or waits to establish, as early positioning determines whether he gets the uncontested lead his profile depends on.
WATCH
Gata Ban and Unspeakable are both genuine hold-up horses drawn from the same well — watch how Dylan Johnston and Jack Tudor position them relative to each other, as the two may get in each other's way closing from the rear.
WATCH
The Kings Soldier, Frankie Faulkner, and Of Corse I Can are all natural hold-up horses who cannot all settle as far back as they prefer — watch the early order for unexpected forward moves from any of them that could disrupt the pace map.
NOTE
Unspeakable returns from 75 days off and has only raced twice in the last six months — watch his jumping sharpness in the early stages, as a rusty fence could cost him crucial ground he cannot easily recover from a hold-up position.
NOTE
Of Corse I Can is ridden by a 3lb claimer (Bradley Harris) and races for a trainer (Mulholland) whose 14-day strike rate is 0/8 — watch whether the weight allowance is a genuine compensating factor or merely paper value in a race this horse is unlikely to win from his natural rear position.
4:05 — Free Tips Daily On Attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle
2m3f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Start Again to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Start Again led, as the map showed.
Motazzen won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Start Again
Prominent · 2
No More BoleroAsk A Sainte
Midfield · 1
So Proud
Hold Up · 1
Motazzen
Start Again is the lone confirmed front-runner and will dictate from the front at what should be a sustainable, uncontested gallop over 2m3f on good ground — no rival will press him for the lead. Ask A Sainte and No More Bolero are the natural prominent types who will look to sit just behind the leader and travel in a prominent position, while Motazzen will operate from the rear as the only genuine hold-up horse. The field holds more prominent types than can all secure their preferred position — So Proud is a natural prominent racer who is unlikely to claim that spot against Ask A Sainte and No More Bolero, effectively being forced to race in a midfield-to-hold-up role against its nature. With a lone front-runner setting a controlled tempo and two quality prominent horses able to travel in ideal positions just behind, this race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can dominate a falsely-run or steadily-run contest and strike decisively from the second fence out.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce
72% probability
If Start Again sets a sustainable gallop and the prominent duo track him into contention before striking
Start Again dictates a comfortable tempo, allowing Ask A Sainte and No More Bolero to travel smoothly in his wake before unleashing their challenges from two out; No More Bolero's excellent recent form (three wins from five on good ground) and Ask A Sainte's strong prominent record make them the chief beneficiaries of this shape.
No More BoleroAsk A SainteStart Again
B
Front-Runner Holds On
14% probability
If Start Again gets a particularly uncontested lead and the pace stays so controlled that rivals cannot reel him in late
With no pressure applied and a well-judged Kielan Woods ride from the front, Start Again could pop around economically and simply have too much in reserve; his one win at this trip on good ground and his prominent sim-going record make this a plausible outcome if rivals leave him alone too long.
Start AgainNo More Bolero
C
Closers Capitalise Late
9% probability
If the pace collapses late or prominent horses use each other up in a bunched finish and Motazzen gets a run
Motazzen would need an unusually stop-start tempo to deliver a late rattle, and his poor sim-going record (0 wins, 2 places from 15 similar-going runs) makes this a low-probability outcome; a Brendan Powell ride from the back at Fontwell is the only realistic pathway.
MotazzenAsk A Sainte
D
Reshuffle Chaos
5% probability
If So Proud refuses to settle in an unnatural hold-up role and disrupts the race tempo, creating a messy contest
Racing out of its natural prominent role, So Proud could unsettle the rhythm if it pulls hard or forces rivals wide, opening the door for an unlikely winner; however, with a STYLE_FIT discount and Jonjo O'Neill Jr. needing to manage the situation, this is the least likely scenario.
So ProudMotazzen
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
No More Bolero's four wins from 15 good-ground starts is the best sim-going record in the field — watch whether Harry Cobden tracks Start Again from second and strikes two fences out.
WATCH
Start Again has not run for 106 days and his last two runs read P and 6 — monitor his market move at the off as any drifting price would indicate stable confidence is limited.
WATCH
So Proud being forced to race off the pace against its natural style is a significant tactical concern — watch whether it settles for Jonjo O'Neill Jr. or pulls hard and wastes energy early.
NOTE
Motazzen ran just nine days ago; the bounce risk is real for an eight-year-old with a poor good-ground record, and punters should note the tongue strap as a first-time application flag to monitor.
NOTE
With only five runners, the prominent berths directly behind Start Again are the most valuable real estate in the race — watch the early stalls to see whether Ask A Sainte or No More Bolero claims the better tracking position.
4:40 — Free Bets On Attheraces.com Handicap Chase
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners
Lead contested: Jiair Madrik v Midnight JewelHISTORIC
How it ran
Midnight Jewel led, as the map showed.
Midnight Jewel won at 1.57 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Jiair MadrikMidnight Jewel
Prominent · 1
Imperial Bede
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Martin's Denuo
Jiair Madrik and Midnight Jewel are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the off in this small four-runner field, creating an honest, pressured gallop over 2m3½f at Fontwell. Jiair Madrik arrives in excellent form (three consecutive wins) and will look to dictate, while Midnight Jewel — who has headgear listed and was pulled up on her two most recent starts before a return to winning — will push him throughout, ensuring neither can fully control the tempo. Imperial Bede has shown prominent tendencies and will sit close to the pace, leaving Martin's Denuo — a lightly-raced, redistributed type — to drift rearward by default rather than genuine hold-up preference. This race shape, with two front-runners pressing each other, most favours a well-positioned prominent racer who can travel comfortably just off the contested lead and pick up the pieces if the front pair weaken; the field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure their preferred positions, with Jiair Madrik and Midnight Jewel the most likely to actually lead, leaving Imperial Bede fighting for a pitch just behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runners Grind Each Other
62% probability
If Jiair Madrik and Midnight Jewel press each other relentlessly, burning each other out before the final two fences.
The sustained duel drains both leaders, opening the door for the horse travelling most comfortably in behind; Imperial Bede, a consistent Fontwell performer over this trip, is ideally placed to capitalise by staying on at the one pace as the front pair fade.
If Jiair Madrik asserts quickly enough to force Midnight Jewel off the bridle early and effectively controls the pace solo from the front.
With Midnight Jewel unable to sustain the challenge, Jiair Madrik is freed to dictate a rhythm that suits his stamina, and his three-timer of wins on Good ground at this trip underpins his credentials to go clear.
If Midnight Jewel bounces back under her headgear (p) and outstays Jiair Madrik in the closing stages after matching him stride for stride.
Her most recent win was over this sort of distance and on Good ground, and if the headgear sharpens her jumping and focus she has the class off OR 104 to hold on.
Midnight JewelJiair MadrikImperial BedeMartin's Denuo
D
Improver Lands Late
6% probability
If Martin's Denuo, a young and lightly-raced chaser, finds the strongly-run pace suit his stamina and comes through beaten rivals in the closing stages.
Martin's Denuo is not a natural hold-up type but his age, lightly-raced profile and recent winning run give him a chance if the front runners capitulate; however, this scenario requires him to race out of role and is the least likely shape.
Midnight Jewel's jumping must be monitored — two consecutive pull-ups suggest a repeat jumping error could end her race early and significantly alter the dynamic if the front-running duel becomes uncontested.
WATCH
Jiair Madrik and Midnight Jewel pressing each other from the off in a four-runner field is the central risk factor; if either capitulates before three out, watch whether Imperial Bede has enough petrol left from tracking them to win rather than just place.
WATCH
Martin's Denuo's youth and inexperience over fences on Good ground is a live danger — a blunder or jumping hesitancy at Fontwell's quirky track layout could end his challenge before the race truly develops.
NOTE
Donald McCain's 0/15 trainer strike rate over the past 14 days is a form-line flag on Jiair Madrik despite the horse's personal form being strong — worth watching in-running for any signs he is not fully wound up after 61 days off.
NOTE
With only four runners, any incident (fall, unseated, pull-up) radically reshapes the race; the field is so small that the loss of even one runner transforms the tactical picture entirely.
5:15 — Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race
2m1½f · Good · CLS5 · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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