Archive›Goodwood · 1 May 2026

Goodwood

1 May 2026 · 7 races

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2:05 — Racing To School Celebrating 25 Years EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Qual) (C/D) (GBB/IRE Incentive)

5f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:40 — British Stallion Studs John Dunlop EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

1m · Good · CLS2 · 4 runners

Allegresse likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Allegresse led, as the map showed.

Protection Act won at 6.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Allegresse

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Protection Act

Hold Up · 2

Pacific AvenuePathein

Allegresse will take the field along as the only confirmed front runner, setting a sustainable tempo without pressure from the three hold-up horses. Pathein, Protection Act, and Pacific Avenue will all settle behind, creating a slow-run affair where the pace will only quicken from the 3-furlong pole. This tactical setup heavily favours the hold-up horses who can unleash their finishing kicks, particularly those with proven ability to quicken off a steady gallop. The race shape decisively favours hold-up runners with strong finishing speed over the prominent runner.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pacific Avenue Dominates

45% probability

If Pacific Avenue gets the right racing room turning for home

His superior RPR of 113 and TS of 106 prove decisive when the pace lifts, with Charlie Appleby's runner having the class edge over his rivals. Recent good form on similar going gives him the tactical and ability advantage.

Pacific AvenueProtection ActPatheinAllegresse

Protection Act Returns

25% probability

If Protection Act's 302-day absence doesn't blunt his edge

The George Boughey runner was impressive when winning last time and gets first run on his fresher rivals in the straight. His perfect record on good going and hold-up style suits this tactical setup perfectly.

Protection ActPacific AvenuePatheinAllegresse

Pathein Gets Up Late

20% probability

If Pathein finds significant improvement from his Kempton second

Daniel Muscutt's mount benefits most from the slow early pace and gets a dream run from the back of this small field. His 202-day break could have him primed for a big performance at a decent price.

PatheinPacific AvenueProtection ActAllegresse

Allegresse Surprises All

10% probability

If none of the hold-up horses can reel in Allegresse's sustained kick

The front runner gets such an easy lead that he has plenty left for the finish despite his inferior ratings. Andrew Balding's charge benefits from controlling the pace completely without pressure.

AllegressePacific AvenueProtection ActPathein

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pacific Avenue must get clear racing room in the straight as he'll be coming from the back with the strongest finish

WATCH

Protection Act's fitness after 302 days off - any signs of rustiness early will compromise his chances significantly

WATCH

Allegresse's ability to sustain his kick when the hold-up horses challenge - his ratings suggest he's vulnerable late

NOTE

Pathein's early positioning with Daniel Muscutt - needs to be handy enough to strike when the pace lifts

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile - if Allegresse goes too slow it plays into the hands of the closers even more

3:15 — Fitzdares Official Partner Of Season Opener Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Democracy Dilemma likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Lexington Blitz won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Democracy Dilemma

Prominent · 3

Spartan ArrowClearpointRogue Enforcer

Midfield · 4

Tropical StormRhythm N HoovesLexington BlitzKing Of Light

Hold Up · 3

TreforFandomRosario

Democracy Dilemma will likely set the pace from the front with minimal pressure, creating a sustainable tempo that suits prominent racers. The Robert Cowell-trained runner has the tactical speed to dictate terms, with most other pace-positive horses like Tropical Storm, Spartan Arrow, and Rhythm N Hooves likely to settle just behind rather than engage early. This controlled tempo will allow the prominent racers to travel comfortably before quickening, while the hold-up horses may struggle to pick up the pieces if the pace stays steady. The race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can position handily and have the speed to respond when Democracy Dilemma kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Prominent Tempo

55% probability

If Democracy Dilemma sets uncontested fractions with prominent racers tracking smoothly

The pace-setter dictates comfortable splits allowing the handy horses to travel before unleashing their turn of foot. Tropical Storm and Spartan Arrow benefit most from this tactical setup with their class edge.

Tropical StormSpartan ArrowDemocracy DilemmaRhythm N Hooves

Early Pace Pressure

25% probability

If multiple prominent runners challenge Democracy Dilemma early creating stronger gallop

The increased tempo stretches the field and sets up the hold-up horses perfectly for their late surge. Rosario and Trefor can capitalize on the pace collapse with their finishing kicks.

RosarioTreforKing Of LightFandom

Democracy Dilemma Wires

12% probability

If the leader maintains his advantage throughout with no serious challenge materializing

The front-runner proves too tough from his ideal position, holding off all challengers in the final furlong. His recent course-and-distance form gives him the edge to complete the wire-to-wire victory.

Democracy DilemmaLexington BlitzTropical StormClearpoint

Sprint Finish Chaos

8% probability

If the pace becomes messy with multiple runners vying for position creating stop-start fractions

The tactical nature creates opportunities for horses with tactical speed and good positioning. Clearpoint's consistent recent form and Rhythm N Hooves' versatility could exploit the scramble.

ClearpointRhythm N HoovesLexington BlitzSpartan Arrow

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Democracy Dilemma could steal a march if he breaks cleanly and the field allows him uncontested lead

WATCH

Tropical Storm's 27-day break and whether Rob Hornby can secure ideal prominent position from his draw

NOTE

Trefor's fitness after 230-day layoff despite his excellent course record when ready

WATCH

The pace development in the opening two furlongs will determine whether hold-up horses get their chance

NOTE

Spartan Arrow's confidence after recent Goodwood success and ability to reproduce that winning form

3:50 — British Stallion Studs EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Good · LST · 9 runners

Tattycoram to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ryka led; the map had Tattycoram in front.

Tattycoram won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tattycoram

Prominent · 3

KissmehoneyhoneyIncensedCoedana

Midfield · 2

Miss WongGalaxy Star

Hold Up · 3

Crepe SuzetteRykaCrystal Flyer

Tattycoram will lead from the start with no other confirmed pace-setters in this field, creating a controlled tempo that should suit her completely. The prominent runners Kissmehoneyhoney, Incensed and Coedana will track the leader in the first flight, while the strong contingent of hold-up horses including Crepe Suzette, Ryka, Crystal Flyer, Galaxy Star and Miss Wong will settle towards the rear. With just one leader setting a manageable gallop over this staying trip, the race sets up perfectly for the front-runner to dictate terms and kick clear when ready. This race shape strongly favours either the leader herself or the prominent racers who can track the pace without pressure and strike late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leader Dominates Throughout

45% probability

If Tattycoram gets an uncontested lead and controls the tempo completely

She can dictate every fraction and has the stamina reserves to repel all challengers in the straight. Her front-running style becomes unbeatable when she faces no early pressure over this trip.

TattycoramKissmehoneyhoneyIncensedCoedana

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and prominent runners get first run on the leader

Kissmehoneyhoney or Incensed can sit in the perfect stalking position and produce a decisive move approaching the final furlong. They avoid the stamina test while getting ideal racing room.

KissmehoneyhoneyIncensedTattycoramCoedana

Strong Finish Required

15% probability

If the early pace is genuine and creates a proper stamina test

The hold-up horses get their chance as the leaders tire, with Crepe Suzette and Ryka having the class to quicken late. Superior ratings tell over the final two furlongs when others have shot their bolt.

Crepe SuzetteRykaCrystal FlyerMiss Wong

Pace Collapse Sprint

10% probability

If Tattycoram goes too slow and it becomes a tactical crawl

The race turns into a sprint finish where any horse with a turn of foot can win regardless of position. Fresh horses returning from breaks like Kissmehoneyhoney and Crystal Flyer could benefit most.

Galaxy StarCrystal FlyerKissmehoneyhoneyMiss Wong

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tattycoram could steal this completely if she gets soft sectionals early and no prominent runner applies pressure through the middle stages

WATCH

Crystal Flyer has the tongue-tie on and returns fresh after 162 days which could spark significant improvement from her hold-up position

NOTE

Kissmehoneyhoney's 221-day absence is notable but Haggas excels with horses returning from breaks and she has the tactical pace to be involved

WATCH

The pace could collapse into a sprint if Tattycoram goes too conservatively, completely changing the complexion of the finish

NOTE

Ryka's 3lb penalty reflects her recent good form but she needs the leaders to go quick enough to set up her late run

4:25 — Fitzdares Offers Top Prices At Goodwood Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Evening Saigon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Uncle Don and Kiss And Run and Moving Force led; the map had Evening Saigon in front.

Far Above Dream won at 3.25 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Evening Saigon

Prominent · 3

Moving ForceMany A StarDiligently

Midfield · 2

Kiss And RunSpring Bloom

Hold Up · 3

Far Above DreamUncle DonDr Strangelove

Evening Saigon will likely lead from the gates with no other confirmed front runners in this field. Moving Force, Many A Star, Diligently and Kiss And Run all show prominent tendencies but are more likely to settle just behind rather than challenge for the early lead. This creates a controlled tempo scenario where Evening Saigon can dictate terms without early pressure. The tactical advantage lies with horses that can travel prominently and have the pace to respond when the race develops - prominent runners and strong hold-up horses with finishing kicks will be best positioned to capitalize on the likely honest but sustainable gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Lead Holds

45% probability

If Evening Saigon gets an uncontested lead and maintains a steady tempo

The front runner faces no early pressure and can time their effort perfectly, while prominent runners get first run on any faltering pace-setter. This sustained gallop suits horses who travel well in behind the speed.

Evening SaigonMany A StarMoving ForceDiligently

Strong Kick From Behind

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely steady and allows closers to unleash late runs

Hold-up horses get the perfect scenario with plenty of horse left for a telling finish, while early leaders may find themselves vulnerable to late challenges. The strong finishers can pick up the pieces.

Dr StrangeloveUncle DonFar Above DreamSpring Bloom

Prominent Pressure Tells

15% probability

If Moving Force or other prominent runners apply more pressure than expected early

The pace quickens beyond Evening Saigon's comfort zone, creating opportunities for horses settling closer who can maintain their position without overracing. Those tracking the speed inherit the race.

Moving ForceDiligentlyMany A StarKiss And Run

Messy Pace Suits Versatile

10% probability

If multiple horses vie for prominent positions creating an uneven tempo

The stop-start nature catches out one-dimensional runners while benefiting those with tactical speed and versatility. Experience and race-craft become decisive factors.

Far Above DreamUncle DonDr StrangeloveMany A Star

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Evening Saigon must handle the responsibility of leading - any signs of over-racing or inability to settle could derail their chances

WATCH

Moving Force faces enormous fitness test after 596 days off, market support would be significant given the lengthy absence

NOTE

Dr Strangelove's hold-up style depends entirely on the pace being genuine enough to set up his finishing kick

WATCH

Far Above Dream carries Hollie Doyle but the 201-day layoff is a concern despite the stable's excellent recent form

NOTE

Watch for any prominent runners pressuring Evening Saigon early as this could change the entire complexion of the race

5:00 — Fitzdares Dedicated Personal Betting Service Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Veritable to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kokoluna led; the map had Veritable in front.

Bridge Of Eagles won at 6.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Veritable

Prominent · 2

Too Hot To TangoKokoluna

Midfield · 2

Lux AeternaFoothold

Hold Up · 2

Bridge Of EaglesMorbeh

Veritable stands alone as the confirmed front runner and will set a sustainable pace without pressure from the gate. The prominent runners Too Hot To Tango and Kokoluna will track just behind, but neither has shown aggressive early pace to challenge Veritable's lead. This creates a comfortable tempo that allows the hold-up horses Lux Aeterna, Bridge Of Eagles, Foothold and Morbeh to settle and build their runs from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can capitalize on the steady gallop and finish with late runs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Veritable sets an uncontested lead and the pace stays moderate

The hold-up quartet gets ideal conditions to settle and unleash finishing kicks, with Lux Aeterna and Foothold best positioned to capitalize. The sustainable pace leaves plenty in the tank for those coming from behind.

Lux AeternaFootholdMorbehBridge Of Eagles

Prominent Tracker Strikes

20% probability

If Too Hot To Tango or Kokoluna applies early pressure to Veritable

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours horses with tactical speed who can position prominently. Kokoluna's recent Goodwood win gives her the edge in this scenario.

KokolunaToo Hot To TangoVeritableLux Aeterna

Leader Gets Away

10% probability

If Veritable secures a soft lead and kicks clear turning for home

The front runner capitalizes on the uncontested pace to build an unassailable advantage. The hold-up horses find the gap too big despite their late flourish.

VeritableKokolunaToo Hot To TangoLux Aeterna

Pace Collapse Sprint

5% probability

If the early pace is extremely slow and it becomes a dash from the furlong pole

The race becomes a pure sprint finish where early position matters most. The prominent runners and any hold-up horse with tactical pace benefit.

Too Hot To TangoKokolunaVeritableFoothold

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bridge Of Eagles returning after 163 days off - fitness levels unknown despite favourable race shape

WATCH

Veritable getting an uncontested lead early - if no pressure applied he could steal a march

WATCH

Too Hot To Tango and Kokoluna failing to track the leader closely - would hand Veritable a soft lead

NOTE

Foothold's positioning in the early stages - needs to settle to utilize his finishing kick effectively

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile - if too slow it becomes a sprint finish that changes all calculations

5:35 — Track Radio Launches On Monday Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Scarlet Moon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Golden Garden led; the map had Scarlet Moon in front.

Gallivanted won at 2.10 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Scarlet Moon

Prominent · 3

GallivantedCrudenArcturus Flame

Midfield · 4

Diamond BayPeking OperaMarket HouseFair Dinkum

Hold Up · 2

Autumn's BreezeGolden Garden

Scarlet Moon is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely getting an uncontested lead with soft fractions through the early stages. The prominent runners Diamond Bay, Market House, Gallivanted, and Cruden will settle in behind but none are natural pace pressers, allowing Scarlet Moon to control the tempo. In the straight, the hold-up pair Golden Garden and Autumn's Breeze will launch their challenges from the rear, but may find the steady pace hasn't set up ideal circumstances for closing finishers. This race shape clearly favors front runners and prominent racers who can track the pace and strike when the tempo lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Scarlet Moon gets soft early fractions and maintains control

Watson's mare will dictate ideal splits and prove hard to peg back when asked for effort. Her class edge at this level combined with tactical advantage makes her very hard to catch.

Scarlet MoonMarket HouseGallivantedDiamond Bay

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and kicks hard late

Market House or Gallivanted can sit close enough to pounce when the tempo lifts in the straight. Their superior finishing kicks will tell when the race becomes a sprint.

Market HouseGallivantedScarlet MoonDiamond Bay

Hold-Up Challenge Succeeds

15% probability

If the pace is stronger than expected through the middle stages

Golden Garden and Autumn's Breeze will benefit from a more genuine gallop that stretches the field. Their closing style becomes more potent with proper pace setup.

Golden GardenAutumn's BreezeFair DinkumCruden

Complete Tactical Mess

10% probability

If multiple horses go forward early creating unexpected pace pressure

The race splinters with several trying to lead or press, creating gaps for late runners. Fair Dinkum or Arcturus Flame could benefit from the chaos.

Fair DinkumArcturus FlameAutumn's BreezePeking Opera

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Scarlet Moon's fitness after 231-day layoff - any signs of blowing up or lacking stamina in final furlong would be crucial

WATCH

Market House with 5lb claimer Mason Paetel in tactical battle - inexperienced rider could cost vital lengths at crucial moments

NOTE

Golden Garden's early positioning from stall - if forced wide or caught in traffic early it kills any chance from hold-up style

WATCH

The pace through opening half-mile - if genuinely strong it transforms race dynamics and brings closers into serious contention

NOTE

Gallivanted's jumping from stalls - has been slow away recently and cannot afford to give leaders too much start

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 1 May 2026.

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