Archive›Gowran Park · 12 June 2026

Gowran Park

12 June 2026 · 8 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:15 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden

7f · Soft · MDN · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

4:50 — Golf At Gowran Park Handicap

7f · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners

Fate's Gambit likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Sagasti and Cantilever led; the map had Fate's Gambit in front.

Gilts won at 29.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

1 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fate's Gambit

Prominent · 1

Pocket Jacks

Midfield · 7

Moon AuraSancerre RockCantileverLove BombGiltsPush HarderNew Divide

Hold Up · 4

SagastiEschweilerImnotleavinyouApothic Red

Fate's Gambit appears the only confirmed front runner in this field, giving him an uncontested lead and sustainable pace scenario. With most runners adopting hold-up tactics (Eschweiler, Sagasti, Imnotleavinyou, Gilts, New Divide, Push Harder, Apothic Red, Love Bomb) and others uncertain in style, the early pace will be modest. The soft ground at 7f creates stamina demands that will test closers, while the lone leader gets first run on the turn. This race shape clearly favors prominent runners and the pace-setter, as hold-up horses face a traffic-laden finish on testing ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

55% probability

If Fate's Gambit gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home

The lone pace-setter controls fractions and has too much in reserve when the field comes looking. Soft ground saps the finishing kick of hold-up horses who face a wall of traffic.

Fate's GambitPocket JacksImnotleavinyouEschweiler

Hold-Up Traffic Chaos

25% probability

If the large pack of hold-up horses get bunched turning in

Multiple closers struggle for racing room while Fate's Gambit has stolen a march. The best hold-up horse with clear passage prevails late.

ImnotleavinyouEschweilerSagastiMoon Aura

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Pocket Jacks or another prominent runner tracks Fate's Gambit closely

The tracker gets perfect position behind the leader and strikes when the pace-setter weakens. Hold-up horses are too far back on testing ground.

Pocket JacksFate's GambitSancerre RockCantilever

Late Surge Overcomes

8% probability

If the soft ground completely stops Fate's Gambit in the final furlong

Superior stamina tells as a hold-up horse with the best turn of foot navigates traffic successfully. The early leader pays for his solo effort.

EschweilerSagastiPush HarderMoon Aura

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fate's Gambit must be watched for early sharpness after 40-day break as fitness could undermine his tactical advantage

WATCH

Hold-up horses Imnotleavinyou, Gilts, New Divide and Love Bomb all show concerning fading finish patterns recently

NOTE

Eschweiler returning after 336 days represents either a complete unknown or a well-handicapped improver

WATCH

Traffic chaos likely in straight as eight hold-up horses converge from rear of field

NOTE

Soft ground consistency throughout the card suggests stamina will be at premium over pure speed

5:23 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap

7f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Pink Oxalis likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Greydreambeliever led; the map had Pink Oxalis in front.

Rion Rubette won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pink Oxalis

Prominent · 3

Luna MiaRion RubetteUna Matata

Midfield · 2

Solana BeachGreek Flower

Hold Up · 3

GreydreambelieverFast TaraGloriously Glam

Pink Oxalis emerges as the sole confirmed front-runner in this small field, likely to get her own way in front without serious pressure from the start. The prominent runners Rion Rubette, Luna Mia, Una Matata and Greek Flower will settle just behind but none appear keen to challenge Pink Oxalis for the early lead. This creates a potentially sustainable pace scenario where the front-runner isn't burned off early, while the hold-up horses Greydreambeliever, Fast Tara and Gloriously Glam rely on the pace falling apart late. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners and the front-runner, as they can position ideally without being hustled for speed early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Pink Oxalis gets an easy lead and controls the fractions

She dictates terms throughout and has enough left to repel late challenges on ground that suits. The lack of early pace pressure allows her to save energy for the finish.

Pink OxalisRion RubetteUna MatataLuna Mia

Prominent Presser Strikes

30% probability

If the prominent horses close up turning for home and outfinish the leader

Rion Rubette or Luna Mia use their tactical speed to get into perfect tracking positions then strike decisively. Pink Oxalis pays for doing the donkey work in testing conditions.

Rion RubetteLuna MiaPink OxalisUna Matata

Hold Up Horse Times Run

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the soft ground

The early leaders tire dramatically allowing Greydreambeliever or Fast Tara to sweep past with late momentum. The soft going emphasizes stamina over speed in the closing stages.

GreydreambelieverFast TaraGloriously GlamSolana Beach

Lightly Raced Improver

10% probability

If Solana Beach shows significant improvement from her promising second

The three-year-old filly builds on her recent runner-up effort over course and distance in similar conditions. Her light racing experience suggests untapped potential at this level.

Solana BeachGreydreambelieverLuna MiaGloriously Glam

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pink Oxalis must be monitored early - if she's allowed to stride clear unchallenged, she becomes very dangerous

WATCH

Watch Rion Rubette's position turning for home - if she's tracking the leader closely, she has tactical speed to strike

WATCH

Observe how the soft ground is riding - if it's particularly testing, it will favor stamina over speed late

NOTE

Check Solana Beach's early positioning as her running style remains unclear but improvement is possible

NOTE

Monitor Fast Tara and Greydreambeliever in the back half - they need the leaders to come back to them

5:58 — Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap

1m · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners

Queen Aethelflaed likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Queen Aethelflaed led, as the map showed.

Queen Aethelflaed won at 7.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Queen Aethelflaed

Prominent · 2

Mythical RockMiss Americana

Midfield · 9

The Rock FactorLimbocallMorning ApproachSimpson's ParadoxRoderickYorkshire MythHastilyRock EtoileBright Image

Hold Up · 5

Selective PowerThe Blue PantherSlaney SwaggerChipsrdownReal Petite

Queen Aethelflaed appears the lone natural early pace angle, with Mythical Rock and Miss Americana likely to track prominently. With 17 runners but limited early speed, the pace will be modest early before quickening. The majority hold-up brigade including Selective Power, Chipsrdown, Yorkshire Myth, and Roderick will rely on the race developing into a sprint finish. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can avoid traffic problems and hold-up horses with a strong finishing kick, as the steady pace will set up a cavalry charge finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the pace stays steady and the field bunches up turning for home

The lack of early pace allows closers to get into perfect striking positions while prominent horses get swamped in the sprint. Selective Power and Yorkshire Myth can unleash their best efforts when it matters most.

Selective PowerYorkshire MythChipsrdownRoderick

Prominent Tactics Prevail

25% probability

If Queen Aethelflaed and Mythical Rock can dictate manageable fractions

The early leaders avoid the scramble behind and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still finding racing room. Mythical Rock's consistent prominent style and recent good form sees him capitalize.

Mythical RockQueen AethelflaedMiss AmericanaThe Rock Factor

Improving Types Strike

12% probability

If the weights and fitness advantages tell in the closing stages

Real Petite's recent win and Morning Approach's fresher profile allow them to outfinish more exposed rivals. The soft ground plays to their strengths as stamina becomes crucial.

Real PetiteMorning ApproachRock EtoileBright Image

Outsider Surprise

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely and causes maximum chaos

The bunched finish creates opportunities for unconsidered runners with tactical speed. Simpson's Paradox and Limbocall benefit from being overlooked while positioned to strike.

Simpson's ParadoxLimbocallHastilyThe Blue Panther

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Queen Aethelflaed could fold quickly if pressed early, leaving no pace for the race

WATCH

Selective Power and Yorkshire Myth both returning from significant layoffs, fitness questions remain

NOTE

Mythical Rock applying headgear for first time suggests connections expect improvement

WATCH

Traffic problems inevitable with 16 hold-up horses in a 17-runner field, draw and positioning crucial

NOTE

Real Petite's confidence from recent win could see her outrun her modest rating

6:33 — Ladies Day July 25th Apprentice Handicap

1m1½f · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Son Of Beauty likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fallacy led; the map had Son Of Beauty in front.

Fallacy won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Son Of Beauty

Prominent · 1

Rayzera

Midfield · 2

Rapide VegaChapel Island

Hold Up · 2

Arctic AssassinFallacy

Son Of Beauty will likely dictate from the front with his prominent style, setting a measured pace in the soft ground conditions at this extended distance. With most runners adopting hold-up tactics (Rapide Vega, Chapel Island, Arctic Assassin, Fallacy), there's minimal early pressure expected, allowing the pace-setter to control proceedings. Rayzera may track close but her prominent style suggests she won't challenge early. This measured tempo strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that hold-up horses will face in the home straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Son Of Beauty Controls

45% probability

If Son Of Beauty gets an uncontested lead and maintains his rhythm

He can dictate terms throughout and prove hard to peg back, with the soft ground suiting his patient approach. The hold-up horses will struggle to make ground from too far back on this testing surface.

Son Of BeautyRayzeraArctic AssassinFallacy

Late Surge Succeeds

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and opens up the race

Arctic Assassin or Fallacy can unleash their finishing kicks despite the tactical disadvantage. Their higher class may shine through if they get racing room when it matters.

Arctic AssassinFallacySon Of BeautyRapide Vega

Rayzera Strikes

15% probability

If Rayzera travels kindly in second and quickens approaching the straight

Her recent form suggests improvement and she can strike while Son Of Beauty weakens. The prominent position gives her first run on the field when the pace lifts.

RayzeraSon Of BeautyArctic AssassinRapide Vega

Rapide Vega Surprise

10% probability

If Rapide Vega shows more early pace than expected and tracks the leader closely

She can benefit from the tactical advantage while others are further back. Her going record on soft suggests she handles conditions better than her recent form implies.

Rapide VegaRayzeraSon Of BeautyFallacy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Son Of Beauty breaking clear early - if he gets 3+ lengths advantage turning in, the hold-up horses may never reach him

WATCH

Chapel Island and Arctic Assassin both show fading patterns - watch for them dropping out tamely if pace quickens

WATCH

Rayzera's claimer Rory Mulligan getting prominent position - inexperience could cost crucial lengths at vital moments

NOTE

Traffic problems developing in home straight as five hold-up horses converge simultaneously from the rear

NOTE

Soft ground conditions deteriorating further - any horse showing signs of struggling with the surface before halfway

7:08 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

1m1½f · Soft · MDN · 15 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

7:43 — Packages At www.gowranpark.ie Race

1m1½f · Soft · DEFAULT · 5 runners

Trustyourinstinct likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tiberius Thunder led; the map had Trustyourinstinct in front.

Trustyourinstinct won at 1.08 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Trustyourinstinct

Prominent · 1

Iron Fist

Midfield · 1

Leopold The First

Hold Up · 2

Tiberius ThunderTerre De Vega

Trustyourinstinct will lead from the outset with Iron Fist, Leopold The First, and potentially Trustyourinstinct tracking close behind in the early stages. With only one confirmed front runner in a small field, the pace will be steady rather than frantic, allowing Trustyourinstinct to dictate terms without pressure. The hold-up horses Terre De Vega and Tiberius Thunder will sit last, but the moderate gallop may not create enough pace bias for closers to exploit. This sustainable tempo clearly favours prominent racers who can position handily and kick from close range.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Trustyourinstinct gets an easy lead and controls the fractions

The leader can dictate a rhythm that suits and prove tough to pass up the straight. Prominent runners like Iron Fist can track and challenge but may struggle to catch a horse that's never been under pressure.

TrustyourinstinctIron FistLeopold The FirstTiberius Thunder

Prominent Tactical Speed

30% probability

If Iron Fist or Leopold The First press Trustyourinstinct early

The pace quickens enough to set up the race for tactical speed from mid-division. Iron Fist's recent form improvement and Leopold The First's consistent placing record put them in the box seat.

Iron FistLeopold The FirstTrustyourinstinctTiberius Thunder

Late Closer Strikes

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes crawling

Tiberius Thunder or Terre De Vega get the perfect setup for their hold-up style. The lack of early pressure allows them to unleash a telling finish that catches the prominent runners napping.

Tiberius ThunderTerre De VegaTrustyourinstinctIron Fist

Pace Duel Collapse

10% probability

If multiple horses contest the early lead aggressively

Trustyourinstinct faces unexpected pressure from prominent runners pushing forward. Both tire in the final furlong, leaving the door open for the hold-up horses to sweep past late.

Terre De VegaTiberius ThunderLeopold The FirstIron Fist

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Trustyourinstinct could get too easy a time in front if no one presses early and prove impossible to catch

WATCH

Leopold The First's fitness after 105 days off - any signs of rustiness early could end chances quickly

NOTE

Terre De Vega's first-time hood suggests connections trying something new to sharpen her up

WATCH

The pace could become crawling with only one natural leader - watch for jockeys getting restless mid-race

NOTE

Tiberius Thunder's position early - if he gets too far back in a slowly-run race he'll have too much ground to make up

8:18 — Gowran Park Handicap

1m1½f · Soft · HCAP · 18 runners

Flying Fortress likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ballymagreehan led; the map had Flying Fortress in front.

Faro Island won at 7.50 — was held up, as the map had it.

10 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Flying Fortress

Prominent · 6

ZipsterDoctor GraceBooklightJava WoodBallymagreehanTero d'Rosa

Midfield · 6

Starting MondayWrob And WryanLady ArwenLauderdale KingElusive DukeRio Doce

Hold Up · 5

Sir JeremySenna's GirlScreaming EagleFaro IslandBobby Kirova

Flying Fortress leads this field with limited early pressure from the prominent brigade of Doctor Grace, Booklight, Zipster, and Starting Monday. With 13 runners likely to settle mid-pack or further back, Flying Fortress can dictate terms through comfortable fractions on the soft ground over this stamina-testing trip. The lack of genuine pace pressure means the leaders can conserve energy for a sustained finish, while the hold-up brigade faces the challenge of navigating traffic in a large field. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and front-runners who can secure clean racing room and avoid the inevitable shuffle behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Flying Fortress gets an easy lead without early pressure

Flying Fortress controls the pace through moderate fractions and has enough left to repel late challengers on ground that suits. The prominent runners like Doctor Grace and Zipster benefit from tracking the pace-setter.

Flying FortressDoctor GraceZipsterStarting Monday

Prominent Pressure Tells

30% probability

If Doctor Grace or Zipster press Flying Fortress from the start

The increased pace stretches the field and favours horses with tactical speed who can position close to the pace. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in the testing conditions.

Doctor GraceZipsterJava WoodTero d'Rosa

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

The lack of early pace sets up perfectly for closers with a turn of foot, allowing Sir Jeremy or Senna's Girl to unleash late kicks. Traffic concerns remain paramount in the large field.

Sir JeremySenna's GirlFaro IslandElusive Duke

Pace Collapse Suits

10% probability

If multiple horses challenge Flying Fortress early creating strong pace

The honest gallop plays to the strengths of hold-up performers who thrive when the pace is solid throughout. Late-running types can pick up the pieces as the leaders tire.

Lady ArwenLauderdale KingBobby KirovaRio Doce

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Flying Fortress jumping too keen early could compromise stamina reserves over this extended trip

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in the back straight as 18 runners bunch together on the turn

NOTE

Sir Jeremy's positioning turning for home as hold-up horses need clear running to be effective

WATCH

Doctor Grace and Zipster applying early pressure to Flying Fortress creating unsustainable pace

NOTE

Late market moves supporting any of the hold-up horses suggesting stable confidence in traffic navigation

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 June 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →