Archive›Gowran Park · 5 May 2026

Gowran Park

5 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:07 — Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Maiden

7f · Good To Soft · MDN · 13 runners

Lead contested: Bamako Beach v AbsoluteassignmentFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Shaws Bay led; the map had Bamako Beach and Absoluteassignment in front.

Shaws Bay won at 4.33 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Bamako BeachAbsoluteassignment

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 7

GlasarmiShaws BayCosmic FunkRodeo BluesSpiritofthedawnStarflowRagaire

Hold Up · 4

The Publican's SonStarredSancerre RockCasla's Eagle

Bamako Beach and Absoluteassignment are the only confirmed front runners in this 13-runner field, creating a relatively modest early pace. With most of the field preferring hold-up tactics, the early leaders should get an uncontested lead through reasonable fractions. This sets up a tactical race where the pace will likely quicken from the 3f pole as the large contingent of hold-up horses make their moves. The race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leaders without being too far back, as they can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will develop when multiple hold-up horses converge late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Steal It

35% probability

If Bamako Beach or Absoluteassignment get uncontested fractions and kick clear turning for home

With so many hold-up horses leaving it late, the early pace-setters could steal vital lengths before the cavalry charge arrives. This scenario particularly suits Bamako Beach who showed promise when second at 7f on soft ground.

Bamako BeachAbsoluteassignmentThe Publican's SonStarred

Prominent Tracker Prevails

45% probability

If The Publican's Son or Starred can settle prominently behind the leaders without using up energy

The highest-rated horses can position themselves perfectly to strike when the pace quickens, avoiding the traffic problems that will hit the deep closers. Their class advantage becomes decisive in a sustained drive from the 2f pole.

The Publican's SonStarredGlasarmiShaws Bay

Late Surge From Behind

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and multiple hold-up horses get clear runs simultaneously

The front runners fade badly and several hold-up horses find racing room to mount serious challenges in the final furlong. This requires perfect timing and luck in running for the closers to be effective.

Sancerre RockCasla's EagleCosmic FunkRodeo Blues

Lightly Raced Improver

5% probability

If Glasarmi shows significant improvement from his break or Shaws Bay builds on his promising debut fourth

An unexposed runner capitalizes on a strong pace scenario to register a breakthrough victory. The combination of class and freshness proves decisive against more exposed rivals.

GlasarmiShaws BayThe Publican's SonBamako Beach

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bamako Beach and Absoluteassignment are the only two front runners, if one withdraws the pace dynamic changes dramatically

WATCH

The Publican's Son has disappointed as favorite recently despite his high rating, needs to show significant improvement

NOTE

Glasarmi is completely unexposed but carries the highest official rating, any market confidence would be significant

WATCH

Multiple hold-up horses will create traffic problems in the straight, draw and early positioning will be crucial

NOTE

Joseph O'Brien has four runners in the race, watch which one gets the strongest market support

5:37 — Thomastown Maiden

1m · Good To Soft · MDN · 16 runners

Loch Gamhna likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rolltight and Western Bandit led; the map had Loch Gamhna in front.

Satoyama won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Loch Gamhna

Prominent · 4

KalirCasamoratiLeewardFaithful Follower

Midfield · 6

Will You StopSalibaWestern BanditRolltightMatadaChico Chico

Hold Up · 5

Stellar ViewSatoyamaHippologyCaptain ConDun Aonghasa

Loch Gamhna will lead from the gates with no serious pace pressure in this field, setting a comfortable tempo through the early furlongs. Kalir and Casamorati may track in second and third but both lack the natural pace to challenge the leader early. With most of the field comprising hold-up horses like Satoyama, Hippology, Captain Con and Stellar View, this creates a pedestrian gallop that builds gradually. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position close to the pace without pressure, as the large field of hold-up horses will create traffic problems in a slowly-run race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Loch Gamhna gets an easy lead and maintains it through halfway

The lack of pace pressure allows him to dictate terms and kick clear when the field comes under pressure. His prominent style perfectly suits this tactical setup and he has the best recent form to capitalise.

Loch GamhnaKalirCasamoratiLeeward

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Kalir or Casamorati can track the leader without getting involved in early pace

They get the perfect trip behind the uncontested leader and can time their challenge perfectly as the hold-up horses struggle for racing room. The patient prominent style wins out over pure speed.

KalirCasamoratiLoch GamhnaLeeward

Hold-Up Horse Finds Gap

20% probability

If the pace quickens significantly in the final three furlongs and gaps appear

Satoyama or Hippology can unleash their finishing kick from the back of the field where they've been saving ground. The O'Brien pair have the class to overcome the tactical disadvantage if the race opens up.

SatoyamaHippologyStellar ViewCaptain Con

Longshot Pace Collapse

5% probability

If Loch Gamhna stops quickly and the prominent horses also empty

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse with a turn of foot can capitalise on the collapsed pace scenario. Traffic problems still favour those who avoided trouble rather than pure outsiders.

Western BanditSalibaWill You StopDun Aonghasa

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Loch Gamhna must be watched for any early pressure as uncontested lead gives him major tactical advantage

WATCH

Monitor Kalir's position through first two furlongs as his ability to track leader without pressure crucial

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems developing in final three furlongs as multiple hold-up horses seek racing room

NOTE

Observe Satoyama's start after previously blowing the break, as slow getaway compounds tactical disadvantage

NOTE

Check how Saliba and Will You Stop handle debut experience as newcomers can struggle with race tactics

6:07 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Vintage Tipple Stakes (Listed Race)

1m6f · Good To Soft · LST · 10 runners

Snapretend to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Snapretend and Contorsion led, as the map showed.

Moody won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Snapretend

Prominent · 3

ContorsionDenim And DiamondsJannah Star

Midfield · 3

Bay ColonyDippedinmoonlightTamam Desert

Hold Up · 3

FlorestaMoodyNuit

Snapretend will take them along from the front with minimal pressure given he's the only confirmed early leader in this field. Contorsion, Denim And Diamonds and Jannah Star should settle prominently behind him, but none are aggressive pace-forcers. The moderate gallop will allow the strong hold-up brigade of Moody, Floresta, Nuit, Dippedinmoonlight, Tamam Desert and Bay Colony to get into contention turning for home. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce sustained finishing kicks over the final three furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If Snapretend sets a steady tempo without serious early pressure

The moderate pace allows closers like Moody and Floresta to unleash their superior class and finishing speed. Strong stayers with proven 1m6f form benefit most from the tactical setup.

MoodyFlorestaNuitDippedinmoonlight

Front Running Success

20% probability

If Snapretend gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning in

The leaders get first run on yielding ground while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground. Snapretend's proven front-running ability at this trip becomes decisive advantage.

SnapretendContorsionJannah StarDenim And Diamonds

Mid-Race Collapse

12% probability

If early pace is stronger than expected with multiple prominent runners

Several horses get caught wide or in traffic, creating chaos in the straight. Patient hold-up horses who avoid trouble benefit from others' misfortune.

DippedinmoonlightBay ColonyNuitTamam Desert

Pace Duel Develops

8% probability

If Contorsion or Jannah Star challenge Snapretend early

The increased tempo plays into the hands of deep closers with superior stamina reserves. The genuine 1m6f specialists come home strongest in testing conditions.

FlorestaMoodyNuitBay Colony

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Snapretend could steal this if he gets uncontested lead and kicks clear before hold-up horses can respond

WATCH

Contorsion and Floresta both returning from very long layoffs which could blunt their finishing kicks significantly

NOTE

Moody's French form needs translating to Irish conditions but his hold-up style perfectly suits expected race shape

WATCH

Track conditions described as yielding across all distances could favour front-runners more than usual

NOTE

Joseph O'Brien saddles four runners giving him multiple tactical options to control race development

6:38 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Victor McCalmont Memorial Stakes (Listed Race)

1m1½f · Good To Soft · LST · 9 runners

Lead contested: Faiyum v SubsonicHISTORIC

How it ran

Sindria and Lemsairbat and Subsonic and Faiyum led, as the map showed.

Sindria won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

FaiyumSubsonic

Prominent · 3

She's A NationApercuLady Lilac

Midfield · 1

Um Wadi

Hold Up · 3

LemsairbatSindriaAbbey Actress

Faiyum and Subsonic will contest the early lead, with Faiyum's superior class likely seeing him dictate from the front. The yielding ground and 1m1½f distance should produce a searching gallop that will expose stamina limitations. Apercu, Lady Lilac and She's A Nation will track the leaders in the second rank, while the hold-up horses Lemsairbat, Abbey Actress, Sindria and Um Wadi will need the pace to collapse late. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike in the final two furlongs, as the front-runners may tire and the hold-up horses face too much ground to make up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Prevail

45% probability

If Faiyum sets honest fractions and the pace doesn't collapse completely

The tracking horses get first run on the tiring leader and have enough left to repel late challenges. Apercu's course experience and Lady Lilac's recent form give them the edge over hold-up horses who face an impossible task.

ApercuLady LilacShe's A NationFaiyum

Class Tells Up Front

30% probability

If Faiyum can control the pace and kick clear in the straight

His superior rating and recent Listed form prove decisive despite carrying top weight. Subsonic may help by taking him along early before dropping away, setting up Faiyum's decisive move.

FaiyumApercuLady LilacLemsairbat

Hold-Up Success

15% probability

If the early pace is unsustainably fast and the front-runners collapse

Lemsairbat and Sindria benefit from a truly-run race where their stamina and closing kick can be effective. The soft going plays to their patient tactics as the leaders tire dramatically.

LemsairbatSindriaAbbey ActressApercu

Subsonic Springs Surprise

10% probability

If Subsonic can steal a march while Faiyum and others go too fast too early

The longest absence runner produces a fresh performance at rewarding odds. His front-running style pays dividends if the more fancied pace-setters engage in a speed duel.

SubsonicShe's A NationFaiyumAbbey Actress

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Faiyum must be monitored early - if he doesn't take up the running readily, the pace could collapse and favour hold-up horses

WATCH

Subsonic's fitness after 220 days off - any signs of early distress would significantly help the prominent runners

NOTE

The ground conditions throughout the card - any further deterioration would particularly favour Abbey Actress and Sindria

WATCH

Lady Lilac's jumping from the stalls - prominent runners need good early position to capitalise on the expected pace scenario

NOTE

Joseph O'Brien's trio (Lemsairbat, Sindria, Um Wadi) for stable confidence - jockey instructions could reveal tactical plans

7:08 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

1m1½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

7:38 — Follow Us On Instagram Apprentice Handicap

1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners

Ramair likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

He's Holding Court led; the map had Ramair in front.

Aurora Mist won at 8.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ramair

Prominent · 2

He's Holding CourtHoney Dale

Midfield · 7

Believe BelieveOchtar AgainnNo Bother AoifeMillhoneBeau ArmyCause I Like YouIryna's Star

Hold Up · 4

Femme BeautyTenaciousNeon EyesAurora Mist

Ramair looks the sole confirmed front-runner with Honey Dale and He's Holding Court the only other prominent racers in this 14-runner field. This creates a dream scenario for the pace-setter as Ramair can dictate fractions without serious early pressure, likely getting soft sectionals through the middle stages. The majority of this field are hold-up horses who will need luck in running and gaps to appear in the straight. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Wins

55% probability

If Ramair gets an easy lead and Julian Pietropaolo judges the fractions correctly

The front-runner controls the tempo and has enough left to resist late challenges, while the hold-up brigade get caught in traffic behind a wall of horses. This suits the rare front-runner who can exploit the tactical advantage.

RamairHoney DaleHe's Holding CourtBeau Army

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If Honey Dale or He's Holding Court can sit close to Ramair and outkick in the final furlong

The prominent racers get first run on the leader while the hold-up horses are still organising behind them, benefiting from race position without doing the donkey work. Traffic issues still plague the back-markers.

Honey DaleHe's Holding CourtRamairCause I Like You

Hold-up Horse Finds Gap

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and clear gaps open up for the hold-up brigade in the straight

A faster-than-expected early pace sets up a closer or one of the better hold-up horses finds racing room at the crucial moment. The front-runners pay for their earlier efforts.

Beau ArmyCause I Like YouFemme BeautyAurora Mist

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If Ramair goes too slow early and the field bunches up turning for home

The race becomes a cavalry charge with the entire field still in contention at the furlong pole, creating chaos and allowing an outsider to slip through. Pure lottery scenario.

Neon EyesAurora MistTenaciousBelieve Believe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ramair must be monitored for early fractions as the lone pace-setter can dictate this race if allowed easy sectionals

WATCH

Traffic problems developing turning for home will be critical as 11 hold-up horses jostle for racing room

NOTE

Honey Dale and He's Holding Court need to position close enough to Ramair without doing too much early work

WATCH

The large field bunching on the home turn could create a cavalry charge scenario if pace collapses

NOTE

Apprentice riders on Ramair, Femme Beauty, Aurora Mist, No Bother Aoife, and He's Holding Court add tactical uncertainty

8:08 — Save 33% Buying Tickets Online Handicap

1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 16 runners

Young Churchill likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Can I Kiss You led; the map had Young Churchill in front.

Majestic King won at 1.67 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Young Churchill

Prominent · 3

VerhoyenShahada AceCarvalhal

Midfield · 7

ThegooseiscookedFamous EnoughCan I Kiss YouHell Left LooseHalf NutzHale BoppBang Po

Hold Up · 5

Kitty BearSkib GoldStaywitherjohnnyMajestic KingBallymagreehan

Young Churchill is the only confirmed front runner in this 16-runner field, giving him an uncontested lead from the off. With most rivals adopting hold-up tactics (Kitty Bear, Majestic King, Thegooseiscooked, Can I Kiss You, Staywitherjohnny), Young Churchill can dictate comfortable fractions without pressure. The prominent horses Carvalhal, Verhoyen and Shahada Ace may track him but lack the pace to apply serious early pressure. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit close to Young Churchill's sustainable gallop, as the hold-up brigade will face a wall of horses in the straight with limited room to manoeuvre.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Young Churchill maintains his lead unchallenged through comfortable fractions

Young Churchill gets first run on the field and the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in a bunched finish. His early positioning advantage proves decisive when the kick comes.

Young ChurchillCarvalhalVerhoyenShahada Ace

Prominent Tracker Strikes

35% probability

If Carvalhal or Verhoyen can stalk Young Churchill closely and outkick him

The prominent trackers get the perfect tow behind Young Churchill's honest gallop then have more left in the tank for the finish. They benefit from the leader doing the donkey work while staying out of traffic.

CarvalhalVerhoyenYoung ChurchillShahada Ace

Hold-Up Horse Finds Gap

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and gaps open for late closers

Kitty Bear, Thegooseiscooked or Majestic King find racing room in a slowly-run affair where stamina trumps position. Their superior class tells when the race becomes a sprint.

Kitty BearThegooseiscookedMajestic KingCan I Kiss You

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If Young Churchill goes too slow and the field bunches dangerously

A messy finish develops with interference as 15 horses try to challenge one leader simultaneously. The winner emerges from luck rather than merit in a photo finish.

Famous EnoughHell Left LooseHalf NutzHale Bopp

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Young Churchill's jumping - any sluggish start could see prominent horses challenge his uncontested lead

WATCH

Traffic problems developing at the 2f pole as 15 hold-up horses try to find racing room simultaneously

WATCH

Verhoyen and Shahada Ace for signs of their usual fading finish pattern kicking in

NOTE

Kitty Bear and Thegooseiscooked need to be handy turning in or they'll have too much to do

NOTE

Carvalhal's fitness after 190-day layoff - watch for any signs of rustiness in the closing stages

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 5 May 2026.

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