Archive›Hamilton · 15 May 2026

Hamilton

15 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:30 — Huws Gray Apprentice Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Until Dawn to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Until Dawn led, as the map showed.

Classy Clarets won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Until Dawn

Prominent · 4

Thornaby PearlTarlacKyber CrystalSki Angel

Midfield · 2

SixcorWee Mary

Hold Up · 3

Thunderstorm KatieBeerwahClassy Clarets

Until Dawn will lead unchallenged early as the sole front-runner, setting a sustainable tempo on good ground over this sharp 5f. Behind him, Thornaby Pearl, Tarlac, Kyber Crystal, Sixcor and Ski Angel will create a wall of prominent runners, likely bunching into traffic problems turning for home. The hold-up quartet of Thunderstorm Katie, Beerwah, Wee Mary and Classy Clarets will need significant luck in running from the back. This race shape strongly favours the leader and early prominent runners who can secure clear racing room before the inevitable squeeze.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Until Dawn gets an easy lead and kicks clear 2f out

The uncontested front-runner builds an unassailable advantage while the prominent pack gets tangled up behind. His recent third at this trip suggests stamina to see out the 5f when not pressured early.

Until DawnKyber CrystalThornaby PearlSki Angel

Prominent Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the five prominent runners create a wall turning for home

The early pace becomes unsustainable as prominent runners interfere with each other, allowing a hold-up horse with clear water to swoop late. Beerwah's recent winning form makes him the prime beneficiary.

BeerwahWee MaryThunderstorm KatieClassy Clarets

Early Speed Duel

15% probability

If Thornaby Pearl or Kyber Crystal press Until Dawn from the start

The increased early gallop sets up a collapse scenario where stamina becomes crucial over this minimum trip. Late runners with the best finishing kicks benefit from the strong pace.

Thunderstorm KatieClassy ClaretsBeerwahWee Mary

Sixcor Sneaks Through

10% probability

If the veteran finds racing room on the rails while others get blocked

The 8-year-old uses his experience to thread between horses as the prominent pack bunches, picking up the pieces late. His low weight and Tom Kiely-Marshall's 3lb claim provide additional advantages.

SixcorSki AngelKyber CrystalTarlac

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for scrimmaging between Thornaby Pearl, Kyber Crystal, Sixcor and Ski Angel in the prominent positions 2f out

WATCH

Monitor if Beerwah and Thunderstorm Katie get clear racing room turning for home as the main hold-up threats

WATCH

Check if Until Dawn gets pressured early by any of the prominent runners breaking their usual tactical approach

NOTE

Observe whether the headgear changes on Beerwah, Wee Mary and Until Dawn produce immediate positive responses

NOTE

Track if the three claiming jockeys maintain their intended positions or get outmuscled tactically by senior riders

6:05 — British EBF Supporting Racing Welfare #mentalhealthawarenessweek Restricted Maiden (GBB/IRE Inc')

6f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

6:40 — Prime Secure William Wallace Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Lead contested: Harriet Quimby v Gaelic ApproachHISTORIC

How it ran

Gaelic Approach led, as the map showed.

My Ballyquinn won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Harriet QuimbyGaelic Approach

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

My Ballyquinn

Harriet Quimby and Gaelic Approach will clash early as both confirmed front runners, creating an honest gallop from the off. With only three runners, the pace will be genuine but not suicidal, as My Ballyquinn sits back as the lone hold-up horse. The sustained nature of 1m3f at Hamilton means the early leaders must respect the trip while maintaining position. This race shape strongly favours the prominent/front running horses who can control the tempo, as My Ballyquinn faces a difficult task giving weight and making up ground on just two rivals.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Dominate

55% probability

If Harriet Quimby and Gaelic Approach settle into a sustainable rhythm after initial skirmishing

The honest pace suits both leaders who can kick for home in tandem, leaving My Ballyquinn with too much ground to make up. Superior fitness and class ratings of the front pair prove decisive in a small field where tactical positioning is crucial.

Harriet QuimbyGaelic ApproachMy Ballyquinn

Pace Collapses Early

25% probability

If both leaders respect each other too much and crawl through the early stages

The lack of pace allows My Ballyquinn to stay closer than usual and unleash a telling late surge. David Nolan can time his run perfectly in a sprint finish where the front runners have little left in reserve.

My BallyquinnHarriet QuimbyGaelic Approach

Speed Duel Backfires

12% probability

If Harriet Quimby and Gaelic Approach engage in a genuine speed battle from the start

Both leaders go too fast early on the testing Hamilton circuit, setting it up perfectly for My Ballyquinn's hold-up style. The 13-day break gives My Ballyquinn the freshness edge over rivals returning from longer layoffs.

My BallyquinnGaelic ApproachHarriet Quimby

Harriet Quimby Wire-to-Wire

8% probability

If the recent winner can dominate from flag-fall and dictate terms completely

Oisin Orr uses the class edge and superior RPR to control the race from the front, grinding down Gaelic Approach in the straight. My Ballyquinn never gets close enough to challenge in a race run to suit the highest-rated performer.

Harriet QuimbyGaelic ApproachMy Ballyquinn

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

My Ballyquinn needs to be closer than usual early or faces impossible task against just two front runners

WATCH

Harriet Quimby's 34-day break could show as the pace intensifies despite superior class ratings

NOTE

Gaelic Approach's 5lb weight advantage through Connor Beasley's claim could prove decisive if pace becomes searching

WATCH

Small field dynamics mean any horse that gets isolated will struggle to recover position

NOTE

David Nolan's tactical awareness crucial for My Ballyquinn to time run perfectly in likely sprint finish

7:15 — Precon Braveheart Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Antrim to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Antrim led, as the map showed.

Elsass won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Antrim

Prominent · 1

Ouro Preto

Midfield · 3

ElsassHumble SparkUrban Road

Hold Up · 2

TiernanMajestic

Antrim is the sole confirmed front runner and should dictate terms from the outset, likely getting an uncontested lead given the field composition. With Ouro Preto the only prominent runner, there's minimal early pressure expected, allowing Antrim to set a measured gallop through the early stages. The majority hold-up horses (Humble Spark, Majestic, Urban Road, Tiernan, Elsass) will be tracking in behind, creating a bunched field turning for home. This sustainable pace setup strongly favours the hold-up brigade who can unleash their finishing kicks against a potentially vulnerable lone leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Antrim sets an uncontested lead and the pace remains steady

The large group of hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing speed in the final two furlongs. Urban Road and Elsass look best positioned with recent good form and lighter weights.

Urban RoadElsassHumble SparkTiernan

Antrim Wire-to-Wire

20% probability

If Antrim kicks clear turning for home and the hold-up horses leave their runs too late

The lone leader capitalizes on the tactical advantage and sustainable gallop to hold off late challengers. Burke's 4-year-old has winning form at this trip and could prove hard to peg back.

AntrimOuro PretoMajesticUrban Road

Ouro Preto Prominent Play

10% probability

If Ouro Preto takes closer order and puts pressure on Antrim earlier than expected

The prominent runner forces a stronger pace that suits his style while compromising the hold-up horses' kicks. His fresh return after 223 days could provide the edge needed.

Ouro PretoAntrimTiernanElsass

Pace Collapse Scramble

5% probability

If Antrim goes too slow and multiple horses make their moves simultaneously

The race becomes a sprint finish where the best weighted horses with recent form prevail. This chaotic finish could suit any horse getting the right run.

ElsassUrban RoadHumble SparkMajestic

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Antrim's early fractions will determine everything - if he goes too slow early, he becomes very vulnerable

WATCH

Urban Road's positioning turning for home is crucial given his strong recent form and light weight advantage

NOTE

Ouro Preto's return from 223 days off makes him unpredictable but potentially dangerous if sharp

WATCH

The hold-up horses bunching together in the straight could lead to traffic problems and hard luck stories

NOTE

Weather conditions remaining good throughout the card will suit most runners' style preferences

7:50 — Luddon Construction Handicap

1m1f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Salam Dubawi likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Salam Dubawi led, as the map showed.

Salam Dubawi won at 19.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Salam Dubawi

Prominent · 2

QitaalDraupnir

Midfield · 4

Quiet ResolveTee Aitch AyeSanafi ZabeelNaturalia

Hold Up · 3

ObitoAustrian TheoryFlying Fletcher

Salam Dubawi is the only confirmed front runner with Qitaal and Draupnir as prominent racers, creating a modest early pace that won't be overly testing. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Obito, Flying Fletcher, Austrian Theory, Sanafi Zabeel, Quiet Resolve, Naturalia, Tee Aitch Aye) will be tracking behind waiting to pounce. With limited early pace and a long home straight at Hamilton, this sets up perfectly for the patient brigade to unleash their finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can capitalize on the modest gallop and time their runs to perfection.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace remains steady as expected

The patient runners get the perfect setup to unleash late runs, with Austrian Theory and Obito best placed to exploit their superior ratings. The lack of early pressure allows closers to position ideally and strike when it matters.

Austrian TheoryObitoQuiet ResolveNaturalia

Prominent Pair Steal March

25% probability

If Qitaal and Draupnir press Salam Dubawi harder than anticipated

A stronger early gallop stretches the field and makes it harder for the hold-up brigade to reel in the leaders. Draupnir's recent Redcar win suggests he can capitalize on tactical positioning.

DraupnirQitaalAustrian TheoryQuiet Resolve

Salam Dubawi Wire-To-Wire

12% probability

If the front runner gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear

With minimal early pressure, Salam Dubawi could steal a march turning for home before the closers can react. His prominent style perfectly suits getting first run on patient rivals.

Salam DubawiDraupnirQitaalAustrian Theory

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If all runners sit too far off Salam Dubawi early

The race becomes a complete lottery with runners queuing up behind a crawling pace. The best-weighted horses with the strongest finishing kicks gain the biggest advantage.

Sanafi ZabeelNaturaliaFlying FletcherTee Aitch Aye

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Salam Dubawi could steal this if given too much rope early - watch if he gets uncontested lead

WATCH

Obito returning after 192 days layoff - watch for fitness and whether he travels kindly in rear

NOTE

Austrian Theory has strong RPR but unproven on good going - watch his action and comfort level

WATCH

Quiet Resolve with inexperienced 5lb claimer in tactical race - watch positioning and jockey decisions

NOTE

Draupnir wearing headgear for first time - watch for improved focus and behavior

8:25 — Patersons Of Greenoakhill Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Picture Palace to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Born A Star led; the map had Picture Palace in front.

Delinquent won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Picture Palace

Prominent · 4

WelburyBorn A StarUnchartedterritoryParole Officer

Midfield · 2

Angela's BaarDeep Sleep

Hold Up · 3

SaxophonistHoru KanuDelinquent

Picture Palace will lead unchallenged early as the sole confirmed front-runner, setting a manageable gallop over this extended 1m4f trip. Behind him, four prominent racers (Welbury, Unchartedterritory, Parole Officer, Born A Star) will create serious congestion tracking the leader, with traffic problems inevitable when they fan out 2-3 furlongs from home. The hold-up brigade (Delinquent, Horu Kanu, Angela's Baar, Saxophonist, Deep Sleep) will have clear running room in the back half as the field stretches out. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can exploit the positioning battle ahead of them and finish strongly into a solid gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent pack gets tangled up turning for home as predicted

The hold-up horses get first run on the outside while the prominent group sorts itself out, with the steady gallop perfect for late closers. Delinquent and Saxophonist can unleash their finishing kicks over runners caught in traffic.

DelinquentSaxophonistHoru KanuAngela's Baar

Welbury Escapes Traffic

25% probability

If Welbury can secure the perfect trip tracking Picture Palace without getting boxed

His superior recent form (12-35) and Rodriguez's tactical skills allow him to kick clear before the hold-up horses arrive. Born A Star could profit from similar prominent positioning if finding gaps.

WelburyBorn A StarPicture PalaceUnchartedterritory

Picture Palace Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and no serious challenge materializes

The leader's sustainable gallop becomes unassailable as the field arrives too late, with his proven stamina over this trip decisive. Welbury provides the main danger if getting a clean run.

Picture PalaceWelburySaxophonistDelinquent

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If Picture Palace goes too slow and gets swamped by the entire field

The race becomes a cavalry charge with the strongest finisher prevailing, likely from the hold-up ranks. Any horse with a turn of foot benefits from the sprint finish.

DelinquentHoru KanuSaxophonistWelbury

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Picture Palace setting genuine fractions early - if he goes too steady he becomes a sitting duck for the closers

WATCH

Traffic congestion 2-3 furlongs out when Welbury, Unchartedterritory, Parole Officer and Born A Star all need racing room simultaneously

WATCH

Delinquent getting cover in midfield - Sam James needs to avoid being caught wide tracking the early pace

NOTE

Angela's Baar's fitness after 81 days off, any market support suggests connections confident despite layoff

NOTE

David O'Meara's double-handed attack with Saxophonist and Unchartedterritory representing different tactical approaches

9:00 — Molton Brown At Hamilton Park Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Pallas Lord to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nakatomi led; the map had Pallas Lord in front.

Perfidia won at 3.25 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pallas Lord

Prominent · 3

HashtagnotionsUncle LiamNakatomi

Midfield · 3

Penny MountainMillbuieApproaching Dawn

Hold Up · 3

Velvet SkiesPisanelloPerfidia

Pallas Lord is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms unchallenged from the gate. With Nakatomi, Hashtagnotions and Uncle Liam providing some prominent company, the early pace will be steady rather than fierce. The lack of genuine pace pressure means Pallas Lord can bowl along comfortably, setting up a tactical affair where the real action comes late. This controlled tempo strongly favours hold-up horses who can unleash finishing kicks, as the leaders will have plenty left to find when the closers pounce.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closers Capitalize Late

45% probability

If Pallas Lord sets uncontested fractions and the prominent runners fail to apply meaningful pressure

The steady pace allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and time their runs perfectly in the final two furlongs. Late runners with finishing pace will sweep past tiring leaders who've had to do all the donkey work.

PisanelloPerfidiaVelvet SkiesMillbuie

Prominent Pressure Pays

30% probability

If Nakatomi or Uncle Liam press Pallas Lord earlier than expected, creating genuine pace

The increased tempo stretches the field and favors horses that can travel strongly in behind the pace without being too far back. Mid-race positioning becomes crucial as the early burn-up exposes pure closers.

HashtagnotionsUncle LiamNakatomiPerfidia

Pallas Lord Wire-to-Wire

15% probability

If the pace remains crawling and no horse can produce a significant turn of foot

The leader's class advantage tells as he's never put under serious pressure and has enough in reserve to repel late challenges. Patient tactics backfire when there's insufficient pace to aim at.

Pallas LordNakatomiHashtagnotionsUncle Liam

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If the early pace is so pedestrian that the entire field bunches up entering the final three furlongs

A messy sprint finish develops where luck in running and positioning matters more than pure ability. The first horse to find daylight and quicken could steal it regardless of running style.

Uncle LiamHashtagnotionsNakatomiMillbuie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Uncle Liam's recent consistency and prominent style could prove decisive if he can get first run on the leaders

WATCH

Pallas Lord's 59-day absence may tell in the final furlong if pressed harder than his recent work suggests he's ready for

NOTE

Nakatomi's significant class drop with claiming allowance makes him dangerous if the pace develops as expected

WATCH

Perfidia's 7lb claimer may struggle with tactical decision-making in what looks likely to become a messy finish

NOTE

Hashtagnotions showed improved form last time and Oisin Orr's presence suggests connections expect another step forward

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 15 May 2026.

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