Archive›Hereford · 12 May 2026

Hereford

12 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:38 — Worcester Racecourse Ladies Day 6th June Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 2 runners

Queensbury Boy likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

Race shape

Lead · 1

Queensbury Boy

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Court In A Storm

Queensbury Boy and Court In A Storm are both hold-up horses, creating a tactical dilemma in this two-runner affair. With no natural pace-setter, one will need to go forward reluctantly or they'll crawl early and sprint late. The reluctant leader will likely get soft fractions and kick clear, while the trailer faces a tough task giving the leader too much rope over this stamina-sapping trip. This race shape strongly favours whichever horse can secure the lead and control the tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Queensbury Boy Leads

45% probability

If Queensbury Boy takes up the running from the start.

James Bowen gets soft fractions on the front end and can kick clear when ready, making full use of his higher official rating. Court In A Storm faces an impossible task trying to reel him in from behind.

Queensbury BoyCourt In A Storm

Court In A Storm Forward

35% probability

If Court In A Storm goes forward early despite his hold-up style.

The Kim Bailey runner gets first run and uses his better recent form to dominate, while Queensbury Boy's 88-day absence and poor recent record over fences tells. Court In A Storm's superior fitness edge proves decisive.

Court In A StormQueensbury Boy

Crawling Pace Sprint

15% probability

If both horses refuse to go forward early and crawl for two miles.

The race becomes a sprint finish where Court In A Storm's recent race fitness and Tom Bellamy's tactical awareness prove crucial in a driving finish. Queensbury Boy's long layoff undermines his finishing kick.

Court In A StormQueensbury Boy

Early Blunders Decide

5% probability

If jumping errors early in the race separate the pair significantly.

The better jumper gains an unassailable advantage that proves impossible to peg back over the remaining distance. Technical proficiency at the obstacles becomes the determining factor rather than pure ability.

Court In A StormQueensbury Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Both horses are hold-up types so watch the early pace - whichever goes forward first gains a huge tactical advantage

WATCH

Queensbury Boy has been 0-4 over fences and the long break plus wind surgery adds uncertainty to his chances

NOTE

Court In A Storm has won twice over hurdles at this track and handles the good ground perfectly

3:08 — CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guarenteed Handicap Chase (Arc Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Delpotro to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Quick Sharpener and Delpotro led, as the map showed.

Quick Sharpener won at 3.20 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 2 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Delpotro

Prominent · 1

Quick Sharpener

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Beep Beep Becky

Delpotro will lead unchallenged from the front in this three-runner affair, setting his own tempo without any early pressure. Quick Sharpener will sit prominently in second, while Beep Beep Becky drops out the back as the hold-up runner. With no pace pressure on Delpotro and plenty of time to organize over 2m5f, he can dictate fractions that suit his front-running style perfectly. This race shape strongly favors the leader and prominent runners, as the lack of early pace will make it difficult for the hold-up runner to close from too far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Delpotro Wires Field

65% probability

If Delpotro jumps cleanly and maintains his rhythm throughout

He can kick clear turning for home without having been pressured early, using his superior tactical position to full advantage. Sean Bowen can time his move perfectly from the front.

DelpotroQuick SharpenerBeep Beep Becky

Quick Sharpener Pounces

25% probability

If Delpotro makes jumping errors or tires in the straight

Gavin Sheehan can track the leader closely and strike when Delpotro falters, benefiting from his prominent position. His higher official rating suggests he has more ability on his day.

Quick SharpenerDelpotroBeep Beep Becky

Tactical Blowout

7% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling slow even for a small field

The race becomes a sprint finish where class could tell and positioning becomes crucial. Quick Sharpener's higher rating could prove decisive in such circumstances.

Quick SharpenerDelpotroBeep Beep Becky

Beep Becky Surprise

3% probability

If both leaders compound badly or fall late in the race

The mare could benefit from clear jumping and inherit the race from behind. Her point-to-point background suggests she can stay this trip strongly.

Beep Beep BeckyQuick SharpenerDelpotro

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Delpotro's jumping rhythm early - any mistakes will compromise his front-running tactics and hand initiative to Quick Sharpener

WATCH

Monitor Quick Sharpener's position tracking Delpotro - if he gets too keen or too far back, his prominent style won't be effective in this small field

NOTE

Observe Beep Beep Becky's jumping fluency as any errors will make her task from the back even more difficult

WATCH

Check the early pace setting by Delpotro - if he goes too fast early, it could set up a collapse scenario for the closers

NOTE

Watch for any market moves on Quick Sharpener given the stable change and long absence

3:38 — Ludford Car Parts Group Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m3½f · Good · NOV · 6 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nannymooresbridge led, as the map showed.

Lady Kara won at 1.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

NannymooresbridgeHidden FortuneLady Kara

Prominent · 1

Mrs Cravatte

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Kittys GlanceLiasse d'Argent

Hidden Fortune, Lady Kara, and Nannymooresbridge will ensure a strong early gallop from the start, with all three confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the lead. This sustained pace will stretch the field over 2m3½f and test stamina reserves in the final half-mile. The relentless gallop will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses Kittys Glance and Liasse d'Argent to come from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours closers and hold-up performers who can benefit from the certain strong pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horse Prevails

55% probability

If the three front-runners maintain a genuine strong pace throughout

The sustained gallop will deplete the leaders' stamina reserves and create perfect conditions for a closer to strike late. Kittys Glance's proven ability to settle and finish strongly makes her ideally suited to this unfolding.

Kittys GlanceLiasse d'ArgentLady KaraHidden Fortune

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If one of the leaders can dictate more sensible fractions early

A more measured pace would allow the front-runner to retain enough stamina to resist late challengers. Hidden Fortune's class edge and recent form gives her the best chance of controlling the tempo.

Hidden FortuneLady KaraKittys GlanceMrs Cravatte

Prominent Runner Times Move

15% probability

If Mrs Cravatte can track the leaders without getting involved in early pace battles

She could benefit from a perfect stalking position behind the battling front-runners before making her move. Her prominent style positions her ideally between the pace and the closers.

Mrs CravatteLady KaraHidden FortuneKittys Glance

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If Nannymooresbridge's return from wind surgery sees dramatic improvement

An unexpectedly competitive Nannymooresbridge could force even stronger early fractions than anticipated. This would maximize the advantage for any horse able to settle and produce a sustained late run.

Kittys GlanceLiasse d'ArgentMrs CravetteHidden Fortune

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Nannymooresbridge shows early pace improvement as this could create an unsustainably fast gallop that destroys all front-runners

WATCH

Monitor how aggressively Hidden Fortune and Lady Kara engage early as both need to prove stamina over this trip

NOTE

Observe if Kittys Glance settles cleanly in her hood as her hold-up style is perfectly suited to exploit the expected pace

WATCH

Check whether the three confirmed front-runners actually engage in serious pace battles or if one tries to dictate more sensible fractions

NOTE

Watch for Mrs Cravatte's positioning early as she needs to avoid getting dragged into pace battles to maximize her stalking advantage

4:10 — CopyBet Says Thank You To Hereford Handicap Hurdle

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Catwalk Girl to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Campaign Trail led; the map had Catwalk Girl in front.

Campaign Trail won at 2.88 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Catwalk Girl

Prominent · 1

Campaign Trail

Midfield · 1

Border Gem

Hold Up · 2

Heard ThatI Am Spider Man

Catwalk Girl will dictate from the front as the sole confirmed leader, with Campaign Trail likely tracking in second through the early stages. The lack of other pace pressers means Catwalk Girl can control fractions without being harassed, creating a sustainable rhythm over this stamina-sapping 3m1½f trip. The hold-up quartet of Border Gem, Heard That, and I Am Spider Man will need the pace to collapse late, but with only one horse setting the tempo, this sets up ideally for prominent racers and those who can travel kindly in behind the leaders rather than needing a strong gallop to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Catwalk Girl maintains her jumping and isn't pressured early

Her recent Huntingdon win shows she's in form and can dictate at her own pace, while Campaign Trail can track and pounce if the leader weakens. The lack of pace pressure plays directly into the hands of these two forward-running types.

Catwalk GirlCampaign TrailBorder GemHeard That

Late Staying Power

30% probability

If the early pace becomes pedestrian and it becomes a stamina test

The hold-up horses get their chance in a slowly-run affair where the 3m1½f distance becomes the key factor rather than tactical positioning. I Am Spider Man's recent Newton Abbot near-miss suggests he's finding form at the right time.

I Am Spider ManBorder GemCampaign TrailHeard That

Mid-Race Move Success

15% probability

If Campaign Trail or another prominent runner applies pressure from halfway

This creates a more genuine pace that could find out Catwalk Girl's stamina while still not being fast enough early to set up the hold-up horses. Campaign Trail's class edge from the Kim Bailey yard could prove decisive in this scenario.

Campaign TrailHeard ThatCatwalk GirlI Am Spider Man

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Catwalk Girl goes too fast early trying to assert dominance

The leader empties out in the straight after dictating too aggressively, leaving it to the closers to pick up the pieces. Border Gem's course form gives her an edge if it becomes a sprint finish.

Border GemI Am Spider ManCampaign TrailHeard That

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Catwalk Girl's jumping under pressure - any early mistakes could disrupt her rhythm and change the entire race dynamic

WATCH

Campaign Trail's fitness after 41 days off - needs to be sharp enough to take advantage of his prominent position

NOTE

I Am Spider Man's stamina reserves at 9 years old over this extended trip on quick turnaround

WATCH

Border Gem's ability to overcome her poor strike rate despite consistently hitting the frame

NOTE

The pace through the middle section - if it becomes truly pedestrian it transforms the finish completely

4:45 — First Past The Post At CopyBet Handicap Hurdle

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Man Of The Sea likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ikigai Star led; the map had Man Of The Sea in front.

Ice Jet won at 2.20 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Man Of The Sea

Prominent · 2

Ikigai StarLaunceston

Midfield · 3

JackelineThe PadsterCeline Man

Hold Up · 3

Jack HoolaMidnight PassIce Jet

Man Of The Sea and Ikigai Star will likely dispute the early lead, with both comfortable prominent runners who won't set a punishing gallop over this trip. The majority of the field are hold-up horses (Jackeline, Jack Hoola, Midnight Pass, Ice Jet, The Padster, Celine Man) meaning the pace could become quite steady through the middle stages. With limited early pace and a bunched field likely turning for home, this race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position close to the pace and have something left to kick when the tempo lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

65% probability

If Man Of The Sea and Ikigai Star control the tempo without excessive pressure

The steady pace suits their stamina profiles and they can resist the late challenges from a bunched pack behind. Hold-up horses struggle to make up significant ground in the closing stages.

Man Of The SeaIkigai StarIce JetJack Hoola

Strong Late Finish

20% probability

If the pace becomes very sedate and the field remains tightly bunched turning in

The race becomes a sprint finish where the best handicapped and freshest horses can unleash telling kicks. Jack Hoola and Ice Jet benefit from racing off lower weights.

Jack HoolaIce JetMidnight PassMan Of The Sea

Tactical Collapse

10% probability

If both prominent runners go too fast early trying to shake off the pack

Man Of The Sea and Ikigai Star empty out in the final furlong after setting unsustainable fractions. The hold-up horses sweep past tired leaders.

Midnight PassJack HoolaIce JetThe Padster

Surprise Package

5% probability

If one of the outsiders finds significant improvement or the favourites underperform

The Padster benefits from his recent breathing surgery and cheekpieces addition, or Midnight Pass shows natural progression as a low-mileage 5yo. The race falls apart for the market leaders.

The PadsterMidnight PassLauncestonJackeline

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Man Of The Sea jumps poorly early or shows signs of rustiness after his 166-day layoff

WATCH

Ice Jet gets too far back in running as many hold-up horses could get caught behind a wall of horses

NOTE

Ikigai Star and Man Of The Sea go faster than intended if they clash for the early lead

WATCH

Jack Hoola shows any signs of needing the run after his 74-day absence from racing

NOTE

The Padster jumps any better with the cheekpieces fitted for the first time

5:20 — Hereford Season Finale Open National Hunt Flat Race (Cat 1 Elimination) (GBB)

2m · Good · CLS5 · 5 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 May 2026.

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