Archive›Hereford · 16 April 2026

Hereford

16 April 2026 · 7 races

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4:22 — Sigeric Ltd Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Maximum Offers likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Moonlit Potter led; the map had Maximum Offers in front.

Maximum Offers won at 1.67 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Maximum Offers

Prominent · 1

Jullou De Grissay

Midfield · 1

Moonlit Potter

Hold Up · 0

None

Maximum Offers appears the most natural pace-setter in this three-runner field, with both Moonlit Potter and Jullou De Grissay likely to track close behind given their prominent tendencies. The small field and lack of confirmed front-runners means Maximum Offers can dictate terms without pressure, setting a steady gallop over this stamina-testing 3m1f trip. With all three runners comfortable racing prominently, this becomes a tactical affair where positioning into the straight matters less than who has the most left in the tank. This controlled pace scenario strongly favours horses with the best recent form and tactical speed, as the race will likely be won by whoever can quickest from the final fence.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Maximum Offers Controls

45% probability

If Maximum Offers gets an uncontested lead and dictates a steady gallop

The 91-day break becomes irrelevant as Gavin Sheehan can time his effort perfectly from the front, with the horse's good ground form (1W2P from 3 starts) proving decisive. His superior OR of 108 and Jamie Snowden's 4/24 recent strike-rate support this tactical advantage.

Maximum OffersJullou De GrissayMoonlit Potter

Moonlit Potter Recent Form

30% probability

If the 12-day turnaround proves an advantage and Luke Scott's claim reduces the burden effectively

Moonlit Potter's recent second at this trip on good ground shows he's in form, and the 11lb weight advantage over Maximum Offers could prove telling in a slowly-run finish. The combination of race fitness and Dr Newland's patient approach makes him dangerous late.

Moonlit PotterMaximum OffersJullou De Grissay

Jullou De Grissay Class

15% probability

If the race becomes a true stamina test and Sam Twiston-Davies can exploit gaps from off the pace

Despite Charlie Longsdon's poor 0/13 recent record, this horse won over course and distance last year and has the class edge with 1W3P on good ground. His tactical positioning behind the other two could pay dividends if they go too fast early.

Jullou De GrissayMaximum OffersMoonlit Potter

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Maximum Offers goes too fast early or makes jumping errors under pressure from the other two

The small field dynamic breaks down with all three going too hard, turning it into a lottery where the horse who conserves most energy or gets the best jump at crucial fences prevails. Weight differentials become crucial in a sprint finish.

Moonlit PotterJullou De GrissayMaximum Offers

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Maximum Offers must settle early - if Gavin Sheehan lets him bowl along too freely in the first mile, the 91-day break will catch up over 3m1f

WATCH

Moonlit Potter's jumping under pressure from Luke Scott's inexperience - any mistake at a crucial fence could end his chances with the small field offering limited recovery options

NOTE

Jullou De Grissay's early positioning will reveal tactics - if Sam Twiston-Davies drops him out back early, it suggests confidence in his stamina reserves

WATCH

Weather changes affecting the going description - any softening would significantly alter the form lines for all three runners

NOTE

The pace through halfway - if they crawl early in this small field, it becomes purely about who has most tactical speed from the final fence

4:57 — Acre Accountancy Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Churchman likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Churchman and Geordies Betty led, as the map showed.

Iamyouare won at 6.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Churchman

Prominent · 1

Shesupincourt

Midfield · 4

Tara ItiIamyouareBrave MoveChosen Bae

Hold Up · 2

Maestro Du MesnilGeordies Betty

Churchman and Shesupincourt are the natural early leaders, but Churchman's prominent style and recent good form makes him the likely pace-setter with Shesupincourt potentially tracking. With only two genuine pace angles in an 8-runner field, the early gallop will be reasonable but not punishing over this 2m3½f trip. The lack of genuine speed means the pace will be sustainable rather than searching, allowing horses to travel comfortably into the straight. This tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a finishing kick, as the moderate early pace will leave plenty in reserve for those coming from behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If the early pace is moderate as expected with Churchman setting reasonable fractions

The sustainable gallop allows the hold-up brigade to travel sweetly and produce their best finishing kicks. Maestro Du Mesnil, Geordies Betty, and Tara Iti all benefit from being able to unleash late runs.

Maestro Du MesnilGeordies BettyTara ItiIamyouare

Front-Runner Steals It

25% probability

If Churchman gets soft fractions and isn't pressured by Shesupincourt early

The lack of pace pressure allows Churchman to conserve energy and maintain his gallop to the line. His recent good form on similar ground gives him the edge when allowed an easy lead.

ChurchmanBrave MoveMaestro Du MesnilShesupincourt

Mid-Race Collapse

10% probability

If the early pace becomes too slow and creates a stop-start rhythm

The stuttering gallop disrupts the finishing kicks of the hold-up horses and creates a tactical mess. Those who can adapt quickest or sit closer benefit from the confusion.

Brave MoveChurchmanIamyouareMaestro Du Mesnil

Pace Duel Backfires

5% probability

If Shesupincourt decides to press Churchman from the start creating genuine pace

The unexpected strong gallop finds out both leaders and sets up the race for a closer tracker. However, this seems unlikely given both horses' recent running patterns.

Geordies BettyTara ItiMaestro Du MesnilIamyouare

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Churchman gets an uncontested lead as his recent placed efforts suggest he could finally break his maiden tag

WATCH

Monitor the early pace between Churchman and Shesupincourt as any genuine speed battle would transform the race dynamics

NOTE

Observe Maestro Du Mesnil's jumping rhythm early as improvement from his promising recent form could make him dangerous

NOTE

Check if Brave Move shows any ring-rust signs given his 126-day absence from action

WATCH

Watch for any market moves on the hold-up horses as the pace setup clearly favours their running style

5:30 — Richard Layton Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 14 runners

Hellion likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Backer Bilk and Hopjes led; the map had Hellion in front.

Arctic Voyage won at 15.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hellion

Prominent · 3

Crystal DaysGood For YouDinkys Rose

Midfield · 6

FidendumGaelic SaintGallant LionArctic VoyageAmerican EmpireBowling Shane

Hold Up · 4

LatinHopjesBacker BilkAlex The Great

Hellion is the only confirmed front runner in this field and will be allowed to dictate terms without pressure from the gate. Crystal Days and Dinkys Rose may take prominent positions but neither is aggressive enough to challenge Hellion's lead. This creates a controlled tempo where the pace-setter can coast through the middle sections before quickening late. The lack of pace pressure strongly favours hold-up horses who can capitalize on a sustainable gallop and finish strongly in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

60% probability

If Hellion sets uncontested fractions and the pace becomes pedestrian

The lack of early pace allows closers to position perfectly and unleash finishing kicks that the pace-setters cannot match. American Empire, Gaelic Saint, and Arctic Voyage benefit most from this tactical setup.

American EmpireGaelic SaintArctic VoyageLatin

Prominent runners capitalize

25% probability

If Crystal Days and Dinkys Rose apply more pace pressure than expected

A genuine tempo develops that stretches the field and favors horses positioned handy who can kick from the front half of the field. Crystal Days holds every chance while Good For You could benefit from the stronger gallop.

Crystal DaysGood For YouHellionDinkys Rose

Pace collapse benefits

10% probability

If Hellion sets funeral fractions and no one challenges until too late

The race becomes a sprint finish where raw ability matters more than positioning, potentially suiting horses with untapped potential. Fidendum's Market Rasen form and Latin's flat speed could prove decisive in a messy finish.

FidendumLatinBacker BilkAlex The Great

Front runner steals it

5% probability

If Hellion's wind operation has transformed his stamina and he can sustain the kick

The uncontested leader finds enough in the tank to repel all challengers despite his moderate hurdles form to date. His previous wind issues may have masked his true ability over this trip.

HellionCrystal DaysAmerican EmpireGaelic Saint

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hellion could steal this if allowed completely uncontested fractions as the sole pace-setter

WATCH

American Empire's 169-day break and wind surgery recovery need monitoring for fitness levels

NOTE

Crystal Days represents the main prominent threat if the pace develops more genuinely than expected

WATCH

Several runners making hurdles debuts or returning from long breaks could be underprepared

NOTE

The going remains good throughout the card but watch for any late changes affecting hold-up horses

6:00 — Keltruck Ltd Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Insurrection to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Black Hawk Eagle led; the map had Insurrection in front.

Numitor won at 13.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Insurrection

Prominent · 2

NumitorSherborne

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Coastguard StationBlack Hawk Eagle

Insurrection will set a steady, sustainable pace from the front with no other committed leaders in this small field. Numitor and Sherborne will track prominently behind the leader, while Black Hawk Eagle and Coastguard Station are likely to be held up at the rear given their hold-up styles. With only one genuine pace-setter and a field of five, this sets up as a tactical affair that could develop into a sprint finish. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers who can track Insurrection and have first run on the hold-up horses when the pace inevitably quickens.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Prevails

45% probability

If Sherborne or Numitor can sit second/third and kick when Insurrection comes under pressure.

The lack of early pace allows the prominent runners to conserve energy and time their challenge perfectly. Hold-up horses face too much ground to make up when the sprint begins.

SherborneNumitorInsurrectionBlack Hawk Eagle

Front Runner Holds On

25% probability

If Insurrection gets an easy lead and the field fails to organise a serious challenge until too late.

The uncontested leader builds an unassailable advantage over 2m5f, with chasers unable to reel him in despite his inconsistency. The tactical runners leave their move too late in the small field.

InsurrectionSherborneNumitorCoastguard Station

Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late

20% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a crawling affair until the final half-mile.

Black Hawk Eagle or Coastguard Station benefit from an extremely slow tempo that negates the advantage of prominent positioning. The race becomes a pure stamina test where the freshest finisher wins.

Black Hawk EagleCoastguard StationSherborneNumitor

Insurrection Leads Throughout

10% probability

If the other runners completely fail to lay up with the leader and allow him to dictate completely.

The Paul Nicholls runner gets such an easy time in front that his class tells despite recent poor form. The field spreads out with no serious challenges materialising.

InsurrectionSherborneNumitorBlack Hawk Eagle

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Insurrection must be watched for how easily he gets to the front - if unopposed he could steal this despite poor recent form.

WATCH

Black Hawk Eagle's jumping under pressure given this is only his fourth chase start and he'll need to be accurate when making his move.

NOTE

Sherborne's ability to handle the 7lb penalty after his Ascot win - any signs of the burden telling could open the door for others.

WATCH

The pace development in the first half-mile will be crucial - if it becomes a crawl, the hold-up horses gain a significant advantage.

NOTE

Numitor's behaviour and willingness to race - given his unpredictable nature, his attitude on the day will determine his chance completely.

6:30 — Robert Howell Handicap Hurdle

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Lead contested: Queens Venture v Grangeclare DiegoHISTORIC

How it ran

Block Rockin Beats and Grangeclare Diego led, as the map showed.

Gold For Alec won at 5.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Queens VentureGrangeclare Diego

Prominent · 1

I'm A Starman

Midfield · 1

Gold For Alec

Hold Up · 2

Court In A StormBlock Rockin Beats

Queens Venture and Grangeclare Diego will dispute the early lead, with Queens Venture likely to get first run having shown more recent pace. With only six runners over this staying trip, the pace will be honest but not furious, allowing the field to stay reasonably compact through the middle stages. I'm A Starman will track prominently behind the leaders while the three hold-up horses (Court In A Storm, Gold For Alec, Block Rockin Beats) will need to find their rhythm from the back. This moderate gallop over 3m1½f strongly favours prominent runners who can stay in touch without having too much ground to make up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Queens Venture or I'm A Starman maintain strong positions throughout

The honest but manageable pace allows horses racing handily to stay in contention without excessive energy expenditure, making their superior tactical position decisive over the extended trip. Hold-up horses find too much ground to make up when the tempo lifts approaching the final hurdle.

Queens VentureI'm A StarmanCourt In A StormGold For Alec

Court In A Storm Powers

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong between the two front runners

A searching gallop plays to Court In A Storm's proven stamina and hold-up style, allowing him to pick off tiring leaders with his superior finishing kick. His recent good form and dual course wins give him the class edge when others weaken.

Court In A StormGold For AlecQueens VentureI'm A Starman

Queens Venture Wires Field

15% probability

If Queens Venture can dictate a steady tempo without serious challenge

The front runner gets an easy lead and kicks clear when it matters, with her summer wins proving she can control races effectively. The small field size makes it harder for hold-up horses to get competitive positions when she quickens.

Queens VentureI'm A StarmanCourt In A StormBlock Rockin Beats

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If both front runners go too fast early and tie up badly

An unsustainable early battle leaves the door open for the hold-up brigade to sweep past tired leaders in the final half-mile. Block Rockin Beats or Gold For Alec benefit most from this unlikely but possible development.

Block Rockin BeatsGold For AlecI'm A StarmanCourt In A Storm

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Queens Venture's 131-day layoff could see her blow up if she tries to match Grangeclare Diego's early pace

WATCH

Gold For Alec's poor record on good ground makes him vulnerable despite his recent Chepstow third

NOTE

I'm A Starman's age at 13 years old means any jumping errors could prove costly over this extended trip

WATCH

Block Rockin Beats needs the tongue tie to help his concentration but his recent form suggests deeper issues

NOTE

Grangeclare Diego's front-running style could set up the race perfectly for closers if he goes too fast early

7:00 — Burcombe Construction Ltd Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Diyaken v Grey SkiesHISTORIC

How it ran

Wild Goose led; the map had Diyaken and Grey Skies in front.

Wild Goose won at 2.62 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

DiyakenGrey Skies

Prominent · 4

Wild GooseBenvoySun ArtRed Rubio

Midfield · 1

Phoenix Risen

Hold Up · 2

The Tide TurnsFight My Fire

Diyaken and Grey Skies will contest the lead from flag fall, with both proven front runners likely to set a genuine gallop over this sharp 2m trip. Five horses (Red Rubio, Sun Art, Wild Goose, Phoenix Risen, Benvoy) all want prominent positions, creating inevitable traffic problems and scrimmaging approaching the business end. The pace battle between the two leaders should stretch the field and create gaps, while those trapped in the pack will struggle to get daylight. This setup strongly favours either the pace-setters who can dictate terms or genuine hold-up horses like Fight My Fire and The Tide Turns who can avoid the carnage and finish with one run.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leader Dominates Race

40% probability

If Diyaken or Grey Skies gets soft fractions and kicks clear 2 out

The winner dictates throughout and has enough left to repel challengers, benefiting from avoiding the prominent pile-up behind. Either Diyaken's class or Grey Skies' course-and-distance suitability proves decisive.

DiyakenGrey SkiesFight My FireWild Goose

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

35% probability

If the early pace is genuine and the prominent brigade gets in each other's way

Fight My Fire times his challenge perfectly from the back as the field spreads out, while The Tide Turns could shock if retaining any ability. The sustained gallop plays into the hands of those with finishing kicks.

Fight My FireThe Tide TurnsPhoenix RisenSun Art

Prominent Scramble Prevails

20% probability

If one of the five prominent runners gets first run and avoids trouble

Wild Goose or Phoenix Risen finds a clean passage through the pack and benefits from race fitness and form momentum. The winner emerges from the jostle with perfect timing and positioning.

Wild GoosePhoenix RisenRed RubioSun Art

Pace Collapse Surprise

5% probability

If both leaders go too fast early and come back to the field dramatically

Benvoy or Red Rubio benefits from a slowly-run finale when the pace dies, but this seems unlikely given both front runners' honest styles. Would need a tactical error from the leaders to materialize.

BenvoyRed RubioSun ArtFight My Fire

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for early pace battle between Diyaken and Grey Skies potentially compromising both leaders if they go too hard

WATCH

Monitor the prominent quintet (Red Rubio, Sun Art, Wild Goose, Phoenix Risen, Benvoy) for traffic problems and interference 2-3 out

WATCH

Check The Tide Turns for any sign of enthusiasm given his recent pulling up and 161-day absence

NOTE

Observe Wild Goose's jumping in the tongue-tie with inexperienced claimer Aamilah Aswat taking 10lb off

NOTE

Watch Phoenix Risen's position early as the blinkers may make him keener than usual in a race with genuine pace

7:30 — Wye Valley Metals Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS5 · 12 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 16 April 2026.

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