Archive›Hereford · 5 May 2026

Hereford

5 May 2026 · 6 races

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5:42 — CopyBet Supporting UK Racing Handicap Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

The Gypsy Davey to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Maximum Offers led; the map had The Gypsy Davey in front.

Maximum Offers won at 2.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Gypsy Davey

Prominent · 2

Maximum OffersMahler Moon

Midfield · 1

Edgewell

Hold Up · 2

SmurfettePetty Cash

The Gypsy Davey will take the field along as the sole confirmed front runner, setting what should be a measured gallop over this stamina-sapping 3m1f trip. Maximum Offers and Mahler Moon can track him in the prominent positions, while the hold-up trio of Petty Cash, Smurfette and Edgewell will need to rely on the pace collapsing in the closing stages. With limited early speed in this small field and The Gypsy Davey unlikely to burn himself out, the prominent racers who can stay in touch and kick when the pace lifts will hold the tactical advantage over those coming from too far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained gallop holds

45% probability

If The Gypsy Davey maintains a solid tempo and the prominent horses stay competitive throughout

The measured pace never truly collapses, favoring those who stayed handy rather than dropping themselves out. Maximum Offers and Mahler Moon benefit from their prominent positions while the hold-up horses find too much to do.

Maximum OffersMahler MoonThe Gypsy DaveySmurfette

Front runner stays strong

25% probability

If The Gypsy Davey's perfect Hereford record (3-3) translates to another bold front-running display

His course form proves decisive as he controls the tempo from the front and finds enough in reserve when challenged. The amateur jockey's 7-pound claim becomes crucial in the closing stages.

The Gypsy DaveyMaximum OffersMahler MoonEdgewell

Late surge from behind

20% probability

If the early gallop becomes truly testing and the leaders weaken significantly in the final half-mile

The hold-up horses finally get their ideal scenario as the pace collapses dramatically. Smurfette's consistency and Petty Cash's class tell when the race falls apart up front.

SmurfettePetty CashEdgewellMahler Moon

Course specialists dominate

10% probability

If Hereford's unique demands favor those with proven track form over current ratings

The course-and-distance winners Edgewell (2-2 here) and The Gypsy Davey (3-3 here) exploit their local knowledge. Their familiarity with the track's challenges outweighs recent form concerns.

EdgewellThe Gypsy DaveyMaximum OffersMahler Moon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Gypsy Davey's jumping under amateur jockey Stone - any early mistakes could eliminate the main pace angle and transform the race shape

WATCH

Maximum Offers settling in the early stages given his prominent style - if he races too keenly behind the leader it could compromise his finishing kick

WATCH

Mahler Moon's position turning for home - his recent good form makes him dangerous if staying prominent, but fatal if dropping too far back

NOTE

The overall tempo through halfway - this will determine whether hold-up horses Smurfette and Petty Cash have any realistic chance of getting competitive

NOTE

Edgewell's jumping rhythm early on - his course form is excellent but recent Fontwell disappointment suggests confidence may be fragile

6:12 — Safer Gambling At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Whatcombe likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Machete Beach led; the map had Whatcombe in front.

Machete Beach won at 1.29 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Whatcombe

Prominent · 1

Noble Don

Midfield · 4

Delta LegendBacker BilkMachete BeachAlex The Great

Hold Up · 2

The CraftymasterHaderach

Whatcombe is the only confirmed front runner in this small field, giving him tactical control from the start. With seven hold-up horses behind him, including The Craftymaster and Machete Beach who will need room to maneuver, the early pace should be sustainable rather than searching. The lack of pace pressure means Whatcombe can dictate terms through the early stages, but his fade-in-finish warning suggests the race will come alive late as the hold-up brigade launches their challenge. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can capitalize on a pace collapse and finish fastest.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse Late

65% probability

If Whatcombe sets modest fractions and fades turning for home

The hold-up horses get ideal conditions as the race becomes a sprint from the final hurdle. Class acts like The Craftymaster and Machete Beach can unleash their finishing kicks.

The CraftymasterMachete BeachBacker BilkDelta Legend

Sustained Gallop Suits

20% probability

If Noble Don joins Whatcombe early to create genuine pace

The prominent runners get first run on tired leaders while hold-up horses face a stiffer test. This tempo exposes some of the lesser lights at the finish.

Noble DonWhatcombeThe CraftymasterBacker Bilk

Wire-to-Wire Shock

10% probability

If Whatcombe gets easy fractions and finds extra reserves late

Despite his fade warning, the lack of early pressure allows him to conserve energy for a genuine staying effort. The hold-up horses leave their runs too late.

WhatcombeNoble DonThe CraftymasterMachete Beach

Tactical Mess Unfolds

5% probability

If multiple horses refuse to commit early creating a stop-start gallop

The inconsistent pace suits nothing and the race becomes a lottery in the straight. Long absent horses struggle to cope with the tactical nature.

Backer BilkAlex The GreatHaderachDelta Legend

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Whatcombe's jumping under pressure - any mistake late could hand race to closers

WATCH

The Craftymaster's turf handling on hurdles debut after dominant AW form

WATCH

Traffic problems developing for hold-up horses if Whatcombe sets slow pace

NOTE

Noble Don's willingness to race prominently early given his mixed running style

NOTE

Machete Beach's fitness after 359-day absence despite strong yard booking Sheehan

6:47 — CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Queens Venture to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Musique De Fee led; the map had Queens Venture in front.

Earth King won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Queens Venture

Prominent · 3

I Spy A DivaEarth KingThe Long Walk

Midfield · 1

Chavez

Hold Up · 2

Musique De FeeDouble Click

Queens Venture stands alone as the only dedicated front runner in this field, meaning she can dictate terms without early pressure over this stamina-sapping 3m1½f trip. The prominent runners (Earth King, I Spy A Diva, The Long Walk) will need to track her sustainable gallop, while the hold-up contingent (Musique De Fee, Double Click, Chavez) face the challenge of making up ground in the closing stages. With Queens Venture able to control the tempo unchallenged, this race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can stay in touch and have the stamina to sustain their effort.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running Dominance

55% probability

If Queens Venture jumps cleanly and sets her own fractions without harassment

She can dictate ideal fractions and kick clear turning for home, making it very difficult for the hold-up horses to reel her in. The 150-day absence becomes less of a concern when she's not facing early pressure.

Queens VentureEarth KingI Spy A DivaThe Long Walk

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners can sit in Queens Venture's slipstream and outstay her

Earth King or I Spy A Diva can bide their time behind the leader before challenging in the final half-mile when stamina becomes crucial. Their proven staying ability gives them the edge over the genuine front runner.

Earth KingI Spy A DivaQueens VentureThe Long Walk

Late Surge From Behind

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly searching and the early leaders weaken significantly

Musique De Fee or Double Click can use their hold-up style to devastating effect, sweeping past tired leaders. The strong pace would set up perfectly for their finishing kicks over this staying trip.

Double ClickMusique De FeeEarth KingQueens Venture

Pace Collapse Scramble

5% probability

If Queens Venture goes too slowly and bunches the field for a sprint finish

The race becomes a tactical affair where jockeyship and immediate pace matter more than pure staying power. This scenario least likely given the distance but would favour the most alert prominent runners.

The Long WalkEarth KingI Spy A DivaQueens Venture

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Queens Venture's jumping early - any mistakes will disrupt her rhythm and gift the race to the prominent trackers

WATCH

Earth King's settling behind Queens Venture - if Jack Tudor gets too keen early, stamina reserves will be compromised

NOTE

Double Click's position turning for home - needs to be within striking distance to utilise finishing kick

WATCH

I Spy A Diva's fitness levels after 124-day break - watch for any signs of rustiness over this demanding trip

NOTE

The Long Walk's jumping rhythm - needs to travel smoothly to capitalise on recent course experience

7:17 — Wye Valley Metals Handicap Hurdle

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

American Sniper to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

American Sniper led, as the map showed.

Oakley won at 5.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

American Sniper

Prominent · 3

Mount AnglesbyPike RoadCluain Chormaic

Midfield · 1

Oakley

Hold Up · 2

Donnie AzoffIndividualiste

American Sniper will lead from the gate with no clear pace pressure in this small field, setting what should be a controlled gallop over this extended trip. Pike Road, Mount Anglesby, Cluain Chormaic and Oakley will track in behind but none are natural pace forcers, meaning American Sniper can dictate terms. The lack of early speed creates a tactical race where positioning becomes crucial in the home straight. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and have something left to pounce, rather than hold-up horses who may find themselves too far back when the race develops.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Gallop Benefits Leaders

45% probability

If American Sniper maintains a steady rhythm without serious challenges until the home turn

The leader gets an easy time of it and those closest behind can strike when ready, with stamina reserves intact for the finish. Hold-up horses struggle to make up the ground from too far back in a race run at American Sniper's tempo.

American SniperPike RoadMount AnglesbyCluain Chormaic

Prominent Trackers Take Over

30% probability

If Pike Road, Mount Anglesby or Cluain Chormaic pressure American Sniper from the home turn onwards

The pace lifts just enough to find out American Sniper's stamina reserves while the prominent runners have tracked the pace perfectly to strike. Those who've stalked the leader are best positioned to capitalize when the race develops.

Mount AnglesbyCluain ChormaicPike RoadAmerican Sniper

Hold-Up Challenge Emerges

15% probability

If the early pace is particularly sedate and the race becomes a sprint from the last hurdle

Donnie Azoff and Individualiste benefit from a truly-run race that allows them to use their finishing kicks. The race becomes more about who has the most left in the tank rather than tactical positioning.

Donnie AzoffIndividualisteCluain ChormaicMount Anglesby

American Sniper Wires Field

10% probability

If American Sniper gets completely uncontested fractions and nobody can match his sustained effort

The leader's class tells when given such an easy time, and he finds enough to hold off all challengers despite the field having every chance to track him. His recent form suggests he's capable when things fall right.

American SniperPike RoadMount AnglesbyOakley

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

American Sniper's early position - if he doesn't go forward immediately, the race loses its likely pace anchor

WATCH

Pike Road and Mount Anglesby tracking positions - whoever sits closest to American Sniper gains the key tactical advantage

NOTE

Donnie Azoff's jumping rhythm early - needs to be fluent to stay in contention from his likely hold-up position

WATCH

The pace through the middle section - if it becomes pedestrian, it plays into the hands of the hold-up horses

NOTE

Cluain Chormaic's position turning in - has been finishing well recently and needs to be handy enough to use that kick

7:47 — Green Dragon Hotel Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Ettore likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Not So Sobers led; the map had Ettore in front.

Not So Sobers won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ettore

Prominent · 1

Southey

Midfield · 2

American EmpireTriple Haych

Hold Up · 2

Not So SobersTao Enki

Ettore will take them along from the front with his prominent style, likely joined by Southey who also races prominently. With only 6 runners and no genuine tearaway leader, this should develop into a steady gallop rather than a searching pace. The four hold-up horses (American Empire, Tao Enki, Not So Sobers, Triple Haych) will be tracking behind looking to pounce. This moderate tempo and small field size strongly favours the front-runners and prominent racers who can control proceedings and have less ground to make up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front runners control

55% probability

If Ettore and Southey dictate a manageable pace without pressure

The leaders maintain their advantage as the hold-up horses struggle to close the gap in a steadily-run race. Prominent racers benefit from track position and energy conservation.

EttoreSoutheyAmerican EmpireTao Enki

Hold-up horses prevail

25% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely searching despite the lack of speed

The prominent horses tie up late allowing the closers to sweep past with their superior finishing kicks. American Empire's class and Tao Enki's trainer form shine through.

American EmpireTao EnkiNot So SobersSouthey

Tactical battle unfolds

12% probability

If jockeys play cat-and-mouse creating an sprint finish

The race becomes a test of acceleration rather than stamina as multiple horses hit the front in the final furlong. Ettore's Nicky Henderson training and de Boinville partnership proves decisive.

EttoreAmerican EmpireSoutheyNot So Sobers

Outsider strikes late

8% probability

If Triple Haych overcomes his fading tendency or Not So Sobers finds improvement

A bigger-priced horse benefits from the pace scenario playing perfectly into their hands despite recent poor form. The long absence works in Not So Sobers' favour as he returns refreshed.

Not So SobersTriple HaychTao EnkiSouthey

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Triple Haych's tendency to fade in finishes combined with poor recent form makes him a liability despite the weight concession

WATCH

American Empire needs the pace to develop properly to unleash his finishing kick from his hold-up position

NOTE

Ettore's partnership with champion jockey Nico de Boinville could prove crucial in a tactical finish

WATCH

Not So Sobers returning after 179 days absence may need the run despite his decent handicap mark

NOTE

Tao Enki's trainer Alastair Ralph hitting 2/7 runners in the last 14 days suggests the yard is in good form

8:17 — Wye Valley Skips Handicap Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)

2m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fox Wallace led, as the map showed.

Prairie Queen won at 10.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Fox WallacePrairie QueenO'Grady's Hill

Prominent · 4

Away For The NightKill The GrooveDaanyMi Sueno

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Kally Des BruyeresDanny's Friend

Fox Wallace, Prairie Queen, and O'Grady's Hill will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with all three natural front-runners likely to dispute the early lead. The pace will be genuinely testing over this 2m trip, particularly with Prairie Queen's tendency to do too much too soon creating additional pressure. Four horses wanting prominent positions (Away For The Night, Daany, Kill The Groove, Mi Sueno) will create congestion and potential traffic problems approaching the business end. This strong pace and likely frantic finish clearly favours the hold-up horses who can stay out of trouble and benefit from the fierce gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses profit

55% probability

If the three front-runners go too fast early and the prominent brigade gets caught in traffic

The strong pace will set up perfectly for Kally Des Bruyeres and Danny's Friend to come with late runs. Both have the class and tactical advantage to capitalize when others have done too much work.

Kally Des BruyeresDanny's FriendAway For The NightDaany

Prominent tracker wins

25% probability

If Away For The Night or Daany can secure ideal positions just behind the leaders without getting caught wide

They'll have the perfect trip to strike approaching the final fence with enough left in the tank. Away For The Night's recent form and Daany's class make them the most likely beneficiaries of this scenario.

Away For The NightDaanyKally Des BruyeresKill The Groove

Front-runner survives

12% probability

If one of the leaders can dictate fractions and kick clear before the others respond

Prairie Queen or O'Grady's Hill could steal it if they manage the pace better than usual. Their combined 26 starts without a win between them makes this unlikely but both have been placed regularly.

Prairie QueenO'Grady's HillFox WallaceAway For The Night

Pace collapses completely

8% probability

If the front-runners go steady early and it becomes a sprint finish

Mi Sueno or Kill The Groove could benefit from a muddling pace that plays to stamina over speed. However, with three confirmed front-runners this scenario requires them all to show uncharacteristic restraint.

Mi SuenoKill The GrooveDanny's FriendKally Des Bruyeres

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fox Wallace and Prairie Queen could set suicidal fractions if both try to dominate from the start

WATCH

Away For The Night may get squeezed for room with four horses wanting prominent positions behind the leaders

WATCH

Danny's Friend faces fitness concerns after 146 days off despite his hold-up style suiting the race shape

NOTE

Kally Des Bruyeres with tongue-tie could find significant improvement in this tactical scenario

NOTE

Mi Sueno's stamina limitations may be exposed if the strong pace continues to the finish

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 5 May 2026.

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