Archive›Hereford · 6 April 2026

Hereford

6 April 2026 · 7 races

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1:35 — Supporting Home Run Hounds North West Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m3½f · Good · CLS4 · 11 runners

Elusive Pb to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ballymoreen led; the map had Elusive Pb in front.

Neon Dream won at 1.67 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Elusive Pb

Prominent · 1

Ballymoreen

Midfield · 6

Untapped PotentialShantou PremierGeorgemaniNeon DreamAmple WarningLady Blackmore

Hold Up · 3

Yellow WarningSea Of FortuneGranite Sands

Elusive Pb is the sole confirmed front runner and will be allowed to dictate from the start without pressure. Ballymoreen may track prominently but lacks the natural pace to challenge early, while the majority including Neon Dream, Yellow Warning, and Lady Blackmore prefer to settle off the pace. With only one natural leader in an 11-runner field, Elusive Pb can control the tempo and kick clear when ready. This setup strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and hold-up horses with finishing speed, as the lack of early pace pressure creates a tactical advantage for those positioned to strike late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Elusive Pb gets an easy lead and maintains stamina over the extended trip

The lack of early pressure allows him to conserve energy and kick clear approaching the last, with his recent Exeter experience proving valuable. His natural front-running style becomes a tactical weapon when unopposed.

Elusive PbBallymoreenNeon DreamYellow Warning

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

30% probability

If the slow early pace sets up a sprint finish from the back

The patient tactics of Neon Dream and Yellow Warning allow them to unleash superior finishing speed in the final half-mile. Alan King's Neon Dream particularly benefits from the tactical setup having shown consistent placed form.

Neon DreamYellow WarningUntapped PotentialLady Blackmore

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Ballymoreen can stay close to Elusive Pb and outstay him late

The ex-Irish mare's bumper-winning experience and Emma Lavelle's 6/19 strike rate combine with her ability to race prominently. Her stamina reserves prove superior in the final furlong as Elusive Pb begins to tire.

BallymoreenGranite SandsElusive PbAmple Warning

Outsider Ambush

10% probability

If the established form horses fail to handle the trip or going conditions

The lightly-raced newcomers Untapped Potential or Shantou Premier benefit from the weak pace and deliver surprise performances. Their point-to-point experience becomes crucial in the closing stages.

Untapped PotentialShantou PremierGeorgemaniSea Of Fortune

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sea Of Fortune has failed to complete his last two starts and may not handle the demands of this longer trip

WATCH

Yellow Warning unseated at the first fence here just 19 days ago and could repeat the error under pressure

WATCH

Elusive Pb will dictate the pace but his stamina over this extended trip remains unproven beyond 2m distances

NOTE

Untapped Potential and Shantou Premier are lightly-raced unknowns whose point-to-point form could translate surprisingly well

NOTE

Neon Dream's consistent placed efforts suggest he will run his race again and provide each-way value at likely odds

2:10 — Wye Valley Group Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Independent Lady likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Miss Kassiopi led; the map had Independent Lady in front.

Miss Kassiopi won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Independent Lady

Prominent · 1

Shanagolden Girl

Midfield · 4

JackelineJessie Jump JetBallerina BoxerAdaay Dancing

Hold Up · 2

Innisfree PearlMiss Kassiopi

Independent Lady will lead from the front with no serious early pressure, as Shanagolden Girl sits prominent but the rest are hold-up horses. This creates a sustainable gallop through the middle sections, allowing Independent Lady to dictate terms without being stressed early. The lack of pace pressure means the front two can save energy for a sustained finish, while the field of hold-up horses will need the leaders to come back to them. This race shape strongly favours the early leaders and prominent racers, as they can control the tempo and have first run when the race develops.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Control Throughout

45% probability

If Independent Lady and Shanagolden Girl maintain their early positions without pressure

The sustainable pace allows them to kick clear in the straight before the hold-up horses can mount their challenges. Independent Lady's course and distance win last month gives her the edge in a tactical finish.

Independent LadyShanagolden GirlMiss KassiopiInnisfree Pearl

Late Hold-Up Challenge

30% probability

If the early pace becomes too slow and the race becomes a sprint finish

The lack of early pace suits the patient hold-up horses who can unleash late runs. Innisfree Pearl and Miss Kassiopi benefit most from a truly-run finish over this staying trip.

Innisfree PearlMiss KassiopiIndependent LadyJackeline

Independent Lady Dominates

15% probability

If Independent Lady gets an uncontested lead and maintains her recent winning form

She can dictate a pace that suits her perfectly and prove too strong, as she did when winning over course and distance last month. The 5lb rise looks manageable given her improved performance level.

Independent LadyBallerina BoxerShanagolden GirlAdaay Dancing

Upset From Outsider

10% probability

If the favourites fail to handle the tactical nature or settlement issues arise

Horses with settling problems like Adaay Dancing could benefit from a steadier pace, while Jessie Jump Jet might find improvement for her new stable. The competitive handicap nature allows for surprises.

Jessie Jump JetAdaay DancingBallerina BoxerShanagolden Girl

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Independent Lady's settling - if she pulls hard early it could compromise her stamina reserves in the closing stages

WATCH

Shanagolden Girl's market support - any strong money would suggest handicap debut holds more promise than novice form suggests

WATCH

Adaay Dancing's early settling - her tendency to pull hard often undermines her chances despite having competitive form

NOTE

Miss Kassiopi's position turning in - she needs to be within striking distance as a hold-up horse to be competitive

NOTE

Jessie Jump Jet's jumping fluency - any improvement in her hurdling technique could unlock better performance for new stable

2:45 — Visit Herefordshire Novices' Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Bouquet De Paris v For Old Times SakeHISTORIC

How it ran

Granny B led; the map had Bouquet De Paris and For Old Times Sake in front.

Lord Chamberlain won at 7.50 — was held up, as the map had it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Bouquet De ParisFor Old Times Sake

Prominent · 3

Kingdom Of StarsGetaway With YouRamaah

Midfield · 3

Desert HaloNow Then WendyGranny B

Hold Up · 3

Bongo ManLord ChamberlainGraecia

Bouquet De Paris and For Old Times Sake will contest the early lead in this 11-runner field, with Kingdom Of Stars likely tracking close behind from his prominent style. The dual pace angle should create an honest gallop over this sharp 2m trip at Hereford, though For Old Times Sake's tendency to fade in the finish could see Bouquet De Paris taking them along. The sustained pace will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses like Graecia, Bongo Man and Desert Halo who can finish strongly. This race shape clearly favours the hold-up runners who can benefit from the strong early pace and produce their best work late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace between Bouquet De Paris and For Old Times Sake proves strong enough over 2m

The sustained gallop will perfectly suit the late-running brigade who can pick up the pieces in the final furlong. Graecia, Bongo Man and Desert Halo all possess the tactical speed to capitalize when the leaders tire.

GraeciaBongo ManDesert HaloLord Chamberlain

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If Kingdom Of Stars can secure the ideal position tracking the leaders without getting involved in early pace battles

His recent improved form and tactical position will allow him to strike when the leaders weaken, getting first run on the hold-up horses. The Kerry Lee runner showed his best effort over 2m4f here last month and drops back in trip with confidence.

Kingdom Of StarsGetaway With YouRamaahBongo Man

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Bouquet De Paris can dictate terms without For Old Times Sake providing sustained pressure early

The Rebecca Curtis runner will get an easier lead than expected and can use his 4yo weight advantage to see off late challengers. His juvenile hurdle form suggests he has more ability than recent handicap debut suggested.

Bouquet De ParisKingdom Of StarsGetaway With YouGraecia

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If both Bouquet De Paris and For Old Times Sake fail to fire and Kingdom Of Stars doesn't fill the void

The race becomes a tactical affair lacking pace, suiting horses that need time to warm up but can quicken late. This would particularly favor the patient rides on runners returning from breaks.

Granny BNow Then WendyLord ChamberlainRamaah

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

For Old Times Sake's early pace-setting could set up the perfect scenario for hold-up horses if he fades as expected

WATCH

Kingdom Of Stars needs to avoid getting caught up in any early pace battle between the two confirmed front runners

NOTE

Graecia's settling will be crucial given her tendency to over-race has compromised recent efforts

WATCH

Bouquet De Paris may get an uncontested lead if For Old Times Sake doesn't fire, completely changing the race dynamic

NOTE

The 36-day breaks for both Bouquet De Paris and Getaway With You could impact their fitness levels

3:20 — Green Dragon Hotel Hereford Handicap Hurdle

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

The Long Walk likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Long Walk and Despereaux led, as the map showed.

Double Click won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Long Walk

Prominent · 2

DespereauxMalago Rose

Midfield · 2

LelantosThe Jam Man

Hold Up · 2

Double ClickWoodythewoodpecker

The Long Walk and Despereaux will set a measured gallop from the front with several prominent racers (Lelantos, Malago Rose, The Jam Man) tracking closely behind over this extended 3m1½f trip. The lack of confirmed pace pressure means the leaders can dictate terms, creating a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial in the straight. Double Click and Woodythewoodpecker must be delivered late from the rear, relying on others to provide the pace injection. This setup strongly favours prominent racers and patient front-runners who can control the tempo and kick when it matters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running Win

40% probability

If The Long Walk or Despereaux can control the early pace without serious pressure

The leader dictates a steady tempo before finding extra gear approaching the final hurdle when challenged. This tactical approach perfectly suits horses with the class to quicken off a sound pace rather than needing a strong gallop throughout.

The Long WalkDespereauxLelantosMalago Rose

Prominent Tracker Pounce

35% probability

If the pace becomes genuine but not frantic in the middle stages

The race develops into a staying test where horses tracking the pace can move smoothly into contention turning for home. Those positioned prominently avoid traffic problems and can time their challenge to perfection when others tire.

LelantosMalago RoseThe Long WalkDespereaux

Hold-Up Horse Charge

15% probability

If the early pace is genuinely strong due to multiple prominent runners going forward

A truly-run staying test emerges where the patient hold-up horses benefit from the strong gallop ahead of them. Double Click and Woodythewoodpecker can unleash their finishing kicks when others have used their stamina reserves.

Double ClickWoodythewoodpeckerThe Long WalkLelantos

Veteran Surprise Package

10% probability

If the race falls apart tactically with stop-start fractions throughout

A messy tactical affair where experience trumps raw ability and The Jam Man's veteran racecraft comes to the fore. The 13-year-old can pick his way through a slowly-run contest where others get trapped or commit too early.

The Jam ManLelantosMalago RoseDouble Click

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Long Walk could steal this if allowed uncontested lead - watch for early pace pressure from Despereaux or prominent trackers

WATCH

Double Click needs significant pace bias to develop through middle stages - monitor early tempo closely for hold-up chances

NOTE

Lelantos carrying Henderson stable confidence with De Boinville booking despite 50-day absence - market moves will be telling

WATCH

Woodythewoodpecker drops back in distance from recent 3m2f efforts - stamina advantage may be reduced over this shorter trip

NOTE

Both female riders (Ryder and Tucker) claim significant weight - watch for confident riding from the front if apprentices get early position

3:55 — We Are Farming Minds Charity Partner Mares' Handicap Chase (Challenger Mares' Chase Qualifier) (GBB)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Malaita to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Malaita led, as the map showed.

Party Vibes won at 3.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Malaita

Prominent · 2

Party VibesThat's Nice

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Belle Montrose

Malaita will take the field along as the sole confirmed front runner, with That's Nice and Party Vibes likely tracking in second and third positions respectively. With only four runners and one clear pace-setter, Malaita can dictate at a sustainable gallop without pressure through the early stages over this 2m5f trip. Belle Montrose will settle at the rear as a hold-up performer, relying on her finishing kick. This uncontested lead scenario strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can stay close to the pace and avoid traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Malaita Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Malaita maintains a steady gallop and jumps cleanly from the front

The 10-year-old can use her experience to dictate terms without pressure, making full use of her 13lb weight advantage over the field. Her two wins at similar distances in early 2024 show she can be effective when allowed to bowl along in front.

MalaitaThat's NiceParty VibesBelle Montrose

Prominent Pair Strike

30% probability

If That's Nice or Party Vibes can track Malaita closely and strike approaching the final fence

Both Henderson and Daly runners have the class edge on ratings and can benefit from a tow into the race before utilizing superior finishing speed. The good ground particularly suits Party Vibes who struggled on heavy at Ascot last time.

Party VibesThat's NiceMalaitaBelle Montrose

Belle Montrose Late Surge

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly sedate and Belle Montrose gets a clear run from the back

The 7-year-old's hold-up style could prove effective if she can weave through traffic and unleash her finishing kick. Her recent wins show she has the ability when things fall right.

Belle MontroseParty VibesThat's NiceMalaita

Jumping Errors Change Race

10% probability

If the leader Malaita makes a crucial mistake at a key fence in the home straight

Any significant jumping error from the front runner could hand the initiative to the prominent racers who are well-placed to capitalize. The small field means any mistake is magnified in importance.

That's NiceParty VibesBelle MontroseMalaita

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Malaita's jumping under pressure - any significant error from the front runner completely changes the complexion of this small field

WATCH

Party Vibes' response to good ground after heavy ground failure at Ascot - she needs to reproduce her December Cheltenham form

NOTE

Belle Montrose getting a clear run from the rear - traffic problems could be crucial with only four runners

WATCH

That's Nice's fence technique under Nico de Boinville - her chasing has been shaky despite recent schooling time

NOTE

Early pace set by Malaita - if she goes too fast early it will set up the race for the closers

4:30 — Spa Motors Hereford Handicap Chase

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Jukebox d'Eddy to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jukebox d'Eddy led, as the map showed.

Edgewell won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jukebox d'Eddy

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

EdgewellMeranti

Hold Up · 2

WalkinthewoodsBraganza Bay

Jukebox d'Eddy will control this race from the front without pressure, creating a sustainable galloping pace throughout the 3m1f trip. With four hold-up horses behind him (Edgewell, Walkinthewoods, Braganza Bay, Meranti), the leader can dictate terms and kick for home when ready. The lack of pace pressure means those tracking will need to time their challenges perfectly from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and any prominent racers who can travel easily in behind, as the hold-up horses will face a tactical disadvantage with limited early pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jukebox Controls Throughout

55% probability

If Jukebox d'Eddy maintains his sustainable lead without serious pressure until the home turn.

The leader can quicken at his chosen moment while the hold-up brigade struggle to close from too far back. His recent good form and front-running style perfectly suits this tactical scenario.

Jukebox d'EddyEdgewellWalkinthewoodsBraganza Bay

Late Challenge Succeeds

25% probability

If one of the hold-up horses produces a strong finishing kick despite the tactical disadvantage.

Edgewell or Braganza Bay times their run to perfection, using superior class or fitness to reel in Jukebox d'Eddy in the final furlong. The front runner pays for controlling the race.

EdgewellBraganza BayJukebox d'EddyWalkinthewoods

Stamina Test Develops

12% probability

If the genuine pace over 3m1f becomes a true staying test in the closing stages.

Jukebox d'Eddy's stamina reserves prove decisive while others tire from their efforts to close the gap. The distance sorts out the genuine stayers from the rest.

Jukebox d'EddyEdgewellBraganza BayWalkinthewoods

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If Jukebox d'Eddy goes too slowly and allows the field to bunch up turning for home.

The race becomes a sprint finish where class and tactical position matter most, allowing a hold-up horse with the right position to strike. Braganza Bay's course record becomes crucial.

Braganza BayEdgewellJukebox d'EddyWalkinthewoods

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jukebox d'Eddy builds an unassailable lead as the hold-up horses give him too much rope in the early stages.

WATCH

Edgewell gets too far back early and relies on his finishing kick against the tactical tide of this race shape.

WATCH

Walkinthewoods shows signs of stopping beyond 2m4f as his stamina limitations become apparent in the closing stages.

NOTE

Braganza Bay jumps fluently on his return to fences after his recent hurdles campaign with Henry Daly.

NOTE

The pace becomes pedestrian through the middle sections allowing the field to bunch up approaching the home turn.

5:05 — Richard Layton Charity Evening 16th April Open NH Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS5 · 13 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 6 April 2026.

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