2:13 — L & R Pest Control Services Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
2m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Newport likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Malangen led; the map had Newport in front.
Newport won at 5.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Newport
Prominent · 3
BetteryouthanmeHuit RefletsTop Flight Century
Midfield · 4
SnapaudaciaherosMalangenBoubouleKnockeranna Rose
Hold Up · 3
Mr LincolnTheirshegoesCurious Mrs Fox
Newport is the one confirmed front-runner here and, with no serious challenger for the lead, looks set to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop around Hexham's tight circuit over 2m on Good ground. Behind him, Betteryouthanme, Huit Reflets, and Top Flight Century will seek the prominent positions, while Snapaudaciaheros and Malangen are genuine prominent types who are effectively squeezed out of their natural berths by the volume of horses wanting to race close to the pace — both are likely to find themselves racing slightly further back than ideal. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure their preferred position, with Newport best-placed to take the lead and Betteryouthanme the most likely to lock in a genuine prominent spot; Snapaudaciaheros and Malangen will have to settle for a less comfortable role. A single unhurried pace-setter on Good ground at Hexham sets up a race that will favour horses who can travel prominently in the first two or three and then sustain their effort into the home straight — patient closers attempting a late run will face a track that does not easily reward sweeping finishes.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Newport Controls, Prominent Pounce
62% probability
If Newport leads unchallenged and the pace is steady enough that the prominent horses travelling just behind him can strike approaching the final flight.
If Newport leads unchallenged and the pace is steady enough that the prominent horses travelling just behind him can strike approaching the final flight.
NewportBetteryouthanmeHuit RefletsTop Flight Century
B
Pace Collapse, Closers Swoop
18% probability
If Newport's uncontested lead tempts him into going too slowly and the race bunches, allowing a late flourish from horses held up off the pace.
If Newport's uncontested lead tempts him into going too slowly and the race bunches, allowing a late flourish from horses held up off the pace.
Mr LincolnKnockeranna RoseTheirshegoesCurious Mrs Fox
C
Pace Crowding Causes Chaos
13% probability
If Snapaudaciaheros and Malangen push forward harder than expected and Newport is unable to lead unchallenged, forcing a more contentious early pace.
If Snapaudaciaheros and Malangen push forward harder than expected and Newport is unable to lead unchallenged, forcing a more contentious early pace.
BetteryouthanmeSnapaudaciaherosMalangenTop Flight Century
D
Hold-Up Types Outclassed
7% probability
If the race is run at a genuine clip from the front and the hold-up horses simply cannot land a telling blow from their position in a small-ish field.
If the race is run at a genuine clip from the front and the hold-up horses simply cannot land a telling blow from their position in a small-ish field.
NewportHuit RefletsBetteryouthanmeTop Flight Century
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Newport (front-runner) sets the entire complexion of this race — if he gets a soft lead and travels kindly, he controls the tempo and threatens to make this a procession for those immediately behind him; watch for whether Betteryouthanme or Snapaudaciaheros press him in the early stages.
WATCH
Snapaudaciaheros and Malangen are both genuine prominent types who cannot both hold their natural position — watch for a tactical scramble in the first half-mile as they attempt to slot in closer to Newport than the map suggests, which could compromise their jumping rhythm.
WATCH
Huit Reflets returns from a 110-day absence with a Going concern (all recent form on Soft) — if the Good ground rides quicker than expected, his jumping sharpness after a long absence becomes a jumping safety concern as much as a performance one.
NOTE
The 3F flag on Mr Lincoln (Iain Jardine) and the 2F flag on Bouboule (Gillian Boanas) are worth monitoring in the paddock — fitness queries in a conditional jockeys' handicap can be amplified by less experienced riders if a horse is not fully wound up.
NOTE
Top Flight Century carries a 19F flag (fall on last run 44 days ago) and is fitted with first-time headgear — his jumping confidence and how he travels through the first few flights on the undulating Hexham track is a key early race indicator.
2:43 — Chris Lowther & Brian Ellison 28 Years Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m4f · Good · CLS4 · 11 runners
Loman Lady likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Millena Agent led; the map had Loman Lady in front.
Dolly Dior won at 51.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
0 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Loman Lady
Prominent · 2
Beyond The VergeGetaway Vic
Midfield · 5
Run HappyRedbridge RoccoMillena AgentDolly DiorTeofimo
Hold Up · 3
Rachel LopezFrisky WhiskeyFortunes Dawn
Loman Lady (Harry Skelton, Dan Skelton) is the one confirmed front runner here and, with no genuine rival to challenge for the lead, she should dictate an unhurried, controlled gallop over this 2m4f Hexham trip on Good ground. Beyond The Verge and Getaway Vic will look to press from prominent positions, creating a small lead group, but the overall tempo is unlikely to be severe enough to crack the field apart early. This shapes as a race where the front-running profile is dominant — a horse who can lead or sit just off the pace, conserve energy on the undulations, and quicken on the run-in holds the clearest structural advantage. The field holds more hold-up types than can realistically be placed at the rear — Dolly Dior and Teofimo are genuine closers by nature but have been mapped to midfield because the rear is crowded; neither is likely to get the deep rearward pitch that suits them best, which marginalises their chances in a slowly-run scenario.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Loman Lady Controls Throughout
63% probability
If Loman Lady bowls along unchallenged and sets a sustainable pace that stretches the field on the final circuit.
If Loman Lady bowls along unchallenged and sets a sustainable pace that stretches the field on the final circuit.
Loman LadyBeyond The VergeGetaway VicMillena Agent
B
Prominent Pair Dominate
18% probability
If Beyond The Verge or Getaway Vic push forward hard early and force a stronger pace that reorders the front group.
If Beyond The Verge or Getaway Vic push forward hard early and force a stronger pace that reorders the front group.
Getaway VicBeyond The VergeLoman LadyRachel Lopez
C
Midfield Finisher Swoops
12% probability
If the early pace is hot enough to soften the leaders and a well-positioned midfield horse arrives late with a decisive run.
If the early pace is hot enough to soften the leaders and a well-positioned midfield horse arrives late with a decisive run.
Rachel LopezMillena AgentFortunes DawnDolly Dior
D
Outsider Exploits Chaos
7% probability
If the front-running group falls apart through jumping errors or a collapse in tempo that leaves a complete outsider in front.
If the front-running group falls apart through jumping errors or a collapse in tempo that leaves a complete outsider in front.
Redbridge RoccoFrisky WhiskeyRun HappyTeofimo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Loman Lady's jumping under pressure — if she makes an error at a critical hurdle mid-race, her advantage evaporates instantly and Beyond The Verge or Getaway Vic are positioned to inherit.
WATCH
Getaway Vic's 2-day turnaround is unusually quick and connections should be watched at the start for any signs of over-freshness or a tardy jump that costs her the prominent position her form demands.
WATCH
Redbridge Rocco and Teofimo both return from layoffs exceeding 340 days — either horse could jump poorly or fade quickly if fitness is short, creating interference risk in a maiden hurdle field.
NOTE
Beyond The Verge's 435-day absence means her jumping sharpness over the Hexham fences is genuinely unknown; a single error could see her lose the prominent pitch she needs to be competitive.
NOTE
The Hexham undulations and downhill sections favour horses with clean jumping technique — monitor Frisky Whiskey and Run Happy early, as neither has shown form suggesting they handle varied terrain comfortably.
3:13 — Matfen Hall Hotel Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
1m7½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Parisencore likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Glory And Honour led; the map had Parisencore in front.
Conquer The Breeze won at 2.88 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Parisencore
Prominent · 2
Cossack ChachKientzheim
Midfield · 2
HerjaConquer The Breeze
Hold Up · 2
Glory And HonourCobbler's Boy
Parisencore is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger likely to force a contested pace from the outset, Danny McMenamin can dictate terms at a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m7½f trip on good ground at Hexham. Herja and Conquer The Breeze are both natural prominent-tracking types by profile but, with Parisencore already occupying that lead slot and the field containing more front-running intent than the race shape can accommodate, both are likely to find themselves racing in unfamiliar midfield positions rather than where they would naturally want to be. This creates a race run at a measured tempo with a single leader setting a comfortable rhythm, which historically at Hexham over this trip favours horses who can travel prominently just off the pace and produce a sustained gallop from the home turn rather than a late burst from off the bridle. The tactical verdict is clear: prominent-to-lead profiles who can settle within striking distance of Parisencore without over-committing early hold the structural advantage, while true hold-up horses will need the pace to collapse to get into it.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Win
68% probability
If Parisencore bowls along uncontested at a fair but unhurried clip and the winner strikes from close proximity turning in.
If Parisencore bowls along uncontested at a fair but unhurried clip and the winner strikes from close proximity turning in.
KientzheimCossack ChachParisencoreCobbler's Boy
B
Front-Runner Outstays Field
14% probability
If Parisencore's controlled gallop is slow enough that he builds a lead no rival can close down in the straight.
If Parisencore's controlled gallop is slow enough that he builds a lead no rival can close down in the straight.
ParisencoreKientzheimCossack ChachGlory And Honour
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
11% probability
If the pace quickens sharply from the back of the final circuit and the leaders empty inside the last two fences.
If the pace quickens sharply from the back of the final circuit and the leaders empty inside the last two fences.
Glory And HonourCobbler's BoyHerjaConquer The Breeze
D
Redistributed Types Disrupt Shape
7% probability
If Herja or Conquer The Breeze push forward from their expected midfield positions and inject genuine pace to challenge Parisencore early.
If Herja or Conquer The Breeze push forward from their expected midfield positions and inject genuine pace to challenge Parisencore early.
HerjaConquer The BreezeKientzheimGlory And Honour
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cossack Chach returns from 211 days off — watch the paddock and early race behaviour closely, as a fresh horse can either bounce off a layoff or show ring-rust that compounds a poor starting position.
WATCH
Herja and Conquer The Breeze may push forward early to reclaim their natural prominent ground — if either forces a contested pace against Parisencore, the tempo will be faster than the race shape suggests and the dynamics shift sharply against hold-up horses.
WATCH
Parisencore's STYLE_FIT flag is a reminder this horse is technically being asked to lead rather than track — McMenamin may need to adjust if the horse does not settle in front, which could create a false gallop and compress the field earlier than expected.
NOTE
Glory And Honour runs just 15 days after its last outing and carries blinkers and tongue-tie — watch whether the stable has freshened it sufficiently or whether the quick turnaround dulls its finishing effort in the straight.
NOTE
Hexham's home straight is short and the final fence comes up quickly — horses that have travelled well in the first half of the race are disproportionately advantaged here, making early positioning behind Parisencore a critical factor to monitor from the start.
3:43 — Jethro's Cafe Of Haltwhistle Handicap Hurdle
2m · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
High Dancer likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Winds Of Winter and Well Educated led; the map had High Dancer in front.
High Dancer won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
High Dancer
Prominent · 1
Haarar
Midfield · 1
Winds Of Winter
Hold Up · 2
Perseus WayWell Educated
High Dancer is the confirmed front runner and, with only five runners over 2m at Hexham on Good ground, should secure an uncontested lead from the outset and dictate a sustainable, measured gallop throughout. Haarar and Winds Of Winter are both natural prominent types, but with High Dancer already filling that slot, at least one of them will be shuffled back from their preferred position — the field holds more front-running and prominent types than the race shape can accommodate, with High Dancer and Haarar most likely to secure the early positions and Winds Of Winter the one most likely to be displaced rearward. Perseus Way and Well Educated are genuine hold-up horses who will settle in behind and rely on their finishing efforts, though Perseus Way's recent hat-trick of wins gives it the most potent late threat. A controlled, single-pace gallop over this sharp 2m trip favours the closers who can produce a clean late challenge — specifically hold-up horses with proven form on Good ground and the resolution to pick off a front runner who has not been pressured — making Perseus Way the primary beneficiary of this race shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Closers Strike
71% probability
If High Dancer sets an uncontested, honest but sustainable gallop and the hold-up horses land a clean run from the home turn.
If High Dancer sets an uncontested, honest but sustainable gallop and the hold-up horses land a clean run from the home turn.
Perseus WayWell EducatedHigh DancerHaarar
B
Prominent Types Grind It Out
15% probability
If the pace stays modest enough that Haarar or High Dancer have enough in reserve to resist the closers to the line.
If the pace stays modest enough that Haarar or High Dancer have enough in reserve to resist the closers to the line.
HaararHigh DancerPerseus WayWinds Of Winter
C
Pace Collapse, Late Surge
9% probability
If High Dancer sets a frantic early pace that burns itself out before two out, opening the race up for a sweeping finish.
If High Dancer sets a frantic early pace that burns itself out before two out, opening the race up for a sweeping finish.
Well EducatedPerseus WayWinds Of WinterHaarar
D
Midfield Mover Pounces
5% probability
If Winds Of Winter, despite being displaced from its natural prominent position, recovers mid-race and delivers a timely challenge.
If Winds Of Winter, despite being displaced from its natural prominent position, recovers mid-race and delivers a timely challenge.
Winds Of WinterPerseus WayWell EducatedHaarar
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Perseus Way's three-timer run on Good ground makes it the most dangerous hold-up threat — watch for Harry Reed to time the challenge from off the pace as High Dancer comes back to the field in the straight.
WATCH
Haarar's 82-day absence and all-Soft recent form creates a fitness and going unknown — if it is not fully wound up, it could drop away sharply after the second-last and open gaps for the closers behind it.
WATCH
Winds Of Winter is a natural prominent racer and Conor Rabbitt may push it forward early regardless of the race map — if it does compete for position with High Dancer and Haarar, the early tempo could be materially faster than the pace map suggests, changing the shape of the race.
NOTE
Well Educated's consistency at 2m on Good ground for a trainer with a quiet recent record (0/6 T14) means it is unlikely to win but almost certain to make the frame — it sets a useful benchmark for the placed positions behind the likely winner.
NOTE
With only five runners and a lone confirmed front runner, Hexham's tight turning track means positioning over the first few flights will be unusually decisive — any horse that loses its pitch early will face a tough task regaining ground on a circuit that does not provide long straight recovery time.
4:13 — Tynedale Function Suite Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Ostend likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Passengerontheship led; the map had Ostend in front.
Passengerontheship won at 1.73 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ostend
Prominent · 1
Passengerontheship
Midfield · 3
Buddah CastleLaffer CurveWest Lawn
Hold Up · 1
Moodofthemoment
Ostend is the confirmed front-runner here and, with only Passengerontheship as a genuine rival for prominent pitch, should be able to bowl along at a sustainable gallop without being seriously challenged for the lead. Passengerontheship has won three of its last four and will want to race prominently, so Ostend will not be entirely alone on the front end, but neither horse figures to ignite a truly searching pace on Good ground over 2m4f. West Lawn is a natural prominent racer who cannot get that position in this shape and has been mapped to midfield as a consequence — the field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure their natural berths, with Ostend and Passengerontheship most likely to lock out the front rank. The resulting race shape — a controlled, single-file lead from Ostend at a fair but unspectacular tempo — strongly favours hold-up and late-travelling types who can track the pace comfortably and produce a clean round of jumping, particularly Moodofthemoment and Laffer Curve, both of whom have the profiles to benefit from a well-run but not gruelling gallop on ground that suits them.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Ostend Controls, Closers Strike
71% probability
If Ostend dictates from the front at a fair pace and no rival has the firepower to disrupt the tempo.
If Ostend dictates from the front at a fair pace and no rival has the firepower to disrupt the tempo.
If Passengerontheship is allowed to stride on and Ostend is ridden more conservatively than expected.
If Passengerontheship is allowed to stride on and Ostend is ridden more conservatively than expected.
PassengerontheshipOstendLaffer CurveWest Lawn
D
West Lawn Finds Position, Strikes
4% probability
If West Lawn manages to slot into a prominent berth against its mapped position and the pace collapses in the final half-mile.
If West Lawn manages to slot into a prominent berth against its mapped position and the pace collapses in the final half-mile.
West LawnBuddah CastleOstendPassengerontheship
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Passengerontheship's aggressive front-running instinct could push up against Ostend from the second fence — watch whether Jonathan England tests Ostend's lead or settles for second in the early exchanges, as that decision shapes the entire race tempo.
WATCH
Moodofthemoment carries headgear and is noted as a hold-up type: if the pace is too steady and the field bunches, Ellis Collier (5lb claim) may find it difficult to manoeuvre through traffic at a crucial stage.
WATCH
Buddah Castle returns after 94 days off with trainer Patrick Neville at 0/7 over the past fortnight — first-time back fitness is the single biggest threat to what looks a live form entry.
NOTE
West Lawn has been redistributed to midfield but Charlie Maggs (3lb claim) may attempt to push forward from the outset; if it does secure a prominent pitch, the fencing ability and track-knowledge at Hexham (four recent runs here) becomes a minor plus worth tracking.
NOTE
Laffer Curve's last two runs have both been over 2m (20f) on Good — this step up to 2m4f (20f to 20f in the form, but check — this is 20f in form vs 20f here) is a flat distance profile; Harry Skelton's judgement of pace on a left-handed track like Hexham will be pivotal in whether the horse gets a clean sight of the final fences.
4:43 — Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Hurdle
2m7½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Jeteye likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Stylish Recruit won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Jeteye
Prominent · 4
Miss KassiopiStylish RecruitBelladinotteRobert d'Ores
Jeteye is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner handicap hurdle over 2m7½f at Hexham, and with no genuine challenger for the lead, Sam England's nine-year-old should bowl along at a sustainable, controlled tempo on Good ground without ever being seriously pressured into going faster than suits. The field contains considerably more prominent-running types than the race shape can accommodate — Miss Kassiopi, Stylish Recruit, Belladinotte and Robert d'Ores are all natural front-rank horses and will press forward to contest a handful of spots directly behind Jeteye, compressing the early order and leaving redistributed types like Lady Phoebe and Luminaries racing further back than their profiles demand. Over this marathon trip on a track that tests stamina through Hexham's undulations, a controlled front-running display by Jeteye with a clutch of genuine prominents tracking closely is the dominant shape — and that profile overwhelmingly favours horses who can travel prominently with cover, conserving energy before the final climb, rather than those asking late questions from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Jeteye Controls, Prominent Chase
54% probability
If Jeteye dictates an honest but unforced gallop and the prominent pack track without disrupting the rhythm.
If Jeteye dictates an honest but unforced gallop and the prominent pack track without disrupting the rhythm.
Miss KassiopiStylish RecruitBelladinotteJeteye
B
Pace Collapses, Stayer Swoops
22% probability
If the prominent group go too hard chasing Jeteye early and the pace blows up in the final mile, rewarding a genuine stayer who has been restrained.
If the prominent group go too hard chasing Jeteye early and the pace blows up in the final mile, rewarding a genuine stayer who has been restrained.
If Jeteye is allowed a completely uncontested lead and the prominent pack are slow to close in the straight.
If Jeteye is allowed a completely uncontested lead and the prominent pack are slow to close in the straight.
JeteyeStylish RecruitMiss KassiopiBelladinotte
D
Chaos, Hold-Up Late
8% probability
If the race falls apart with fallers or a dramatic pace collapse that shuffles the entire field, opening the door for a late finisher.
If the race falls apart with fallers or a dramatic pace collapse that shuffles the entire field, opening the door for a late finisher.
DartmhorMyfavouritesisterJimli's CaveNitty Gritty
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Jeteye leads alone throughout — if no prominent rival is willing to go after him before the back straight, monitor whether he is building an unassailable lead that leaves the chasing pack with too much to do at the last.
WATCH
The compression of prominent runners (Miss Kassiopi, Stylish Recruit, Belladinotte, Robert d'Ores) directly behind Jeteye creates a traffic-management risk at early hurdles — watch for interference or a false jump that shuffles the order dramatically.
WATCH
Lady Phoebe and Luminaries are natural front-runners who cannot get their position in this field shape — if either of them makes an unexpected move for the lead in the first mile it could destabilise Jeteye's controlled tempo and trigger a faster early pace than anticipated.
NOTE
Twoplacesatonetime has pulled up in two of its last five starts — Brian Hughes is not aboard and Nathan Moscrop's lighter experience at this level means jumping errors are a live risk over this marathon trip; be alert to the horse departing early and causing interference.
NOTE
Dartmhor's 88-day absence combined with a poor sim-going record on Good ground (3/10) means Danny McMenamin may be instructed to give it an educational run — if so, the horse drifting wide or going slowly into hurdles at the back of the field could create a loose-horse concern late on.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.