2:40 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m · Soft · NOV · 11 runners
3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Nobotheratall led, as the map showed.
Crokes Cross won at 301.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led.
5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
NobotheratallCrokes CrossSmoke Trail
Prominent · 1
Changemyluck
Midfield · 4
Mr Mojo RisinBogha BaisteNed BroyJust A Poet
Hold Up · 3
Kingsman MailCavalry CallWord For Word
Three confirmed front runners (Nobotheratall, Crokes Cross, Smoke Trail) will ensure a strong gallop from the off, with Smoke Trail the most reliable pace-setter given his recent consistent form. This trio will likely go hammer and tongs early, stretching the field and testing stamina over this stamina-sapping 2m trip on soft ground. The majority of the field are hold-up horses (Mr Mojo Risin, Bogha Baiste, Kingsman Mail, Just A Poet, Word For Word, Cavalry Call, Ned Broy) who will benefit from the strong pace up front. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the genuine pace will string out the field and allow patient riders to pick off tiring leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
45% probability
If the three front runners maintain a strong gallop throughout
The pace will be unsustainable for the leaders, allowing the patient hold-up brigade to sweep past in the final furlong. Word For Word and Mr Mojo Risin are best positioned to exploit this, with their class and tactical speed.
Word For WordMr Mojo RisinBogha BaisteKingsman Mail
B
Smoke Trail Survives
30% probability
If Smoke Trail can break clear of his front-running rivals and control the tempo
His proven form on soft ground (4/4 record) gives him the best chance of the pace-setters to last home. The other front runners will tire from chasing him, leaving him clear for the closers.
Smoke TrailWord For WordMr Mojo RisinKingsman Mail
C
Tactical Battle Develops
15% probability
If one of the front runners drops back early, reducing the pace
Changemyluck could benefit from a more tactical affair, sitting prominently before striking. However, his tendency to fade in the finish remains a concern even in a slower-run race.
ChangemyluckWord For WordSmoke TrailMr Mojo Risin
D
Front Runner Collapse
10% probability
If all three pace-setters go too fast and tie up completely
The entire field of hold-up horses will have chances, potentially allowing a lesser-rated horse like Bogha Baiste to capitalize on the chaos. The pace would be so strong that class could be negated.
Bogha BaisteKingsman MailWord For WordJust A Poet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Crokes Cross and Nobotheratall both return from long layoffs (290 and 168 days respectively) and may not be match-fit for a strong pace
WATCH
Changemyluck has solid soft ground form but his tendency to fade in the finish could be exacerbated by the expected strong gallop
NOTE
Word For Word wears headgear for the first time after his recent win, suggesting connections believe there's more improvement to come
NOTE
Watch Derek Fox's tactics on Smoke Trail - if he can steal a march on his front-running rivals he has the form to make it pay
WATCH
The three front runners could go too fast early and set it up perfectly for the patient hold-up horses to dominate the finish
3:10 — Racing TV Club Day Mares' Handicap Hurdle
2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners
Miss Carbo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Vanilla Dancer led; the map had Miss Carbo in front.
Take A Hike won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Miss Carbo
Prominent · 3
Vanilla DancerGreen BonnetGeorgie's Malt
Midfield · 2
Parish StarAm I Bovvered
Hold Up · 3
TheirshegoesEbselyseesTake A Hike
Miss Carbo will set the tempo from the front with minimal early pressure, as most runners prefer to hold up or track from prominent positions. Vanilla Dancer and Georgie's Malt may press early but are likely to settle behind the leader through the middle stages. The genuine pace combined with testing ground conditions will string out the field over this staying trip. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the pace is genuine and the field will be strung out, creating perfect conditions for closers to pick off tired leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Miss Carbo sets honest gallop and tires after 2 miles
The sustained pace over testing ground plays perfectly into the hands of the patient hold-up brigade who can time their challenges late. Theirshegoes, Parish Star and Take A Hike all possess the tactical speed to benefit from this scenario.
Parish StarTheirshegoesTake A HikeEbselysees
B
Front Runner Gets Away
25% probability
If Miss Carbo faces no early pressure and builds unassailable lead
With her class edge and recent Hexham win, Miss Carbo could dominate if allowed to dictate completely unchallenged. Her stamina will prove decisive if the pace becomes pedestrian early.
Miss CarboVanilla DancerGeorgie's MaltParish Star
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If Vanilla Dancer tracks Miss Carbo perfectly and times run to perfection
The consistent mare can use her prominent style to shadow the leader before striking in the straight. Her recent form edge and Danny McMenamin's 5lb claim could prove decisive in a tactical finish.
Vanilla DancerMiss CarboTheirshegoesParish Star
D
Stamina Test Causes Chaos
5% probability
If ground deteriorates further and becomes a true slog
The combination of testing conditions and extended trip could cause widespread stamina failures. This would favour the most battle-hardened performers with proven staying power.
Take A HikeParish StarTheirshegoesAm I Bovvered
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Miss Carbo could build unassailable lead if allowed to bowl along unchallenged from flagfall
WATCH
Parish Star's strong similar going record (14/15 with 2W3P) makes her dangerous if getting the run of the race
Take A Hike's first-time tongue tie with 7lb claimer could provide significant variables in tight finish
NOTE
Vanilla Dancer's trainer Chris Grant showing poor recent form (T14 0/3) despite mare's consistent efforts
3:40 — Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap Chase
2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Lead contested: Benefit Ben v Poetry ManHISTORIC
How it ran
Poetry Man led, as the map showed.
Looking Splendid won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Benefit BenPoetry Man
Prominent · 1
Gorvennec
Midfield · 4
Burgundy ManNights In VenicePark RulesDivas Doyen
Hold Up · 3
Don OcchettiLooking SplendidThe Jad Factor
Benefit Ben and Poetry Man are both confirmed front-runners who will clash from the start, creating a contested early pace over the first mile. With 8 of the 10 runners holding hold-up tactics, this genuine gallop will stretch the field and test stamina reserves over the extended 2m5½f trip. The pace-setters will likely weaken approaching the final fence, leaving the race to be decided by hold-up horses who can quicken from off the pace. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the pace is genuine and the field will be strung out for closers to pick off tired leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate finish
55% probability
If the dual pace angle creates an honest gallop that stretches the field
The genuine early pace will play into the hands of the 8 hold-up horses, with several able to close strongly as Benefit Ben and Poetry Man weaken. Fresh legs and tactical pace will prove decisive over this stamina-sapping distance.
The Jad FactorLooking SplendidNights In VeniceDon Occhetti
B
Front-runner gets loose
25% probability
If one of Benefit Ben or Poetry Man breaks clear without a pace rival
Without pressure, the surviving leader can dictate fractions and kick clear approaching the last fence when hold-up horses are still making ground. A tactical front-running display will prove hard to peg back.
Benefit BenPoetry ManBurgundy ManDivas Doyen
C
Prominent tracker strikes
15% probability
If Gorvennec can track the early leaders and avoid the pace battle
Sitting just behind the speed duel, Gorvennec can inherit the lead as the front-runners tire and hold off late challengers. His prominent style bridges the gap between pace and hold-up horses perfectly.
GorvennecDon OcchettiThe Jad FactorNights In Venice
D
Pace collapses completely
5% probability
If both Benefit Ben and Poetry Man go too hard and capitulate early
The dual speed horses burn each other up in a suicidal pace battle, leaving a muddling middle section that favours horses with tactical speed. The race becomes a sprint finish between multiple hold-up horses.
Burgundy ManDivas DoyenLooking SplendidPark Rules
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Poetry Man and Benefit Ben go suicidally fast early - both are capable of burning each other up in a pace war
WATCH
The Jad Factor carries 158lbs as top-weight but his class and recent form make him dangerous if getting the right pace setup
NOTE
Looking Splendid returns from 115 days off for a stable struggling with winners - market support would be telling
WATCH
Don Occhetti sports first-time cheekpieces and has a 3-pound claimer up, suggesting stable confidence in his chances
NOTE
Nights In Venice wears a tongue-tie for the first time having won last time out - any market move worth noting
4:15 — Let's Get Ladies Day Ready Handicap Hurdle
2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
Atlantic Lad to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Maillot Blanc led; the map had Atlantic Lad in front.
Dedicated Hero won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Atlantic Lad
Prominent · 2
Dollar CollarMaillot Blanc
Midfield · 3
Sunset HillFeach AmachGuet Apens
Hold Up · 2
Dedicated HeroBuy Some Time
Atlantic Lad will dictate proceedings from the front with minimal pressure, as the field is dominated by hold-up horses with only Maillot Blanc and Dollar Collar likely to sit prominent. The lack of pace pressure means Atlantic Lad can control the tempo, but this creates a tactical race where the huge contingent of hold-up runners (Dedicated Hero, Sunset Hill, Guet Apens, Buy Some Time, Feach Amach) will be looking for cover before making their moves. With only one confirmed front runner and five hold-up horses, the race will develop into a sustained drive from the back, making it difficult for Atlantic Lad to resist the late cavalry charge. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the controlled pace will bunch the field and allow closers to unleash their finishing kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate finish
55% probability
If Atlantic Lad sets a steady tempo without pressure from prominent runners
The controlled pace allows the large contingent of hold-up horses to get into contention and unleash their finishing kicks in unison. The sheer weight of numbers from the back proves decisive as Atlantic Lad weakens in the final furlong.
Guet ApensDedicated HeroFeach AmachSunset Hill
B
Front runner holds on
25% probability
If Atlantic Lad kicks clear approaching the final flight and the hold-up horses fail to organize their challenge
Despite the tactical disadvantage, Atlantic Lad's 97-day break leaves him fresh and he times his move perfectly to steal a march on the field. The hold-up horses get in each other's way and their challenge comes too late.
Atlantic LadDollar CollarMaillot BlancGuet Apens
C
Prominent runners bridge gap
15% probability
If Maillot Blanc and Dollar Collar track Atlantic Lad closer than expected and prevent him controlling the race
The prominent runners create enough pace pressure to string out the field, making it harder for the hold-up horses to close the gap. This benefits those who can travel strongly in the second tier rather than from the rear.
Dollar CollarMaillot BlancAtlantic LadBuy Some Time
D
Pace collapses completely
5% probability
If Atlantic Lad goes very slowly and the prominent runners fail to take up the running
The race becomes a sprint from the home turn with no established pace, creating chaos and favouring the freshest horses regardless of running style. Form and class become secondary to who handles the stop-start nature best.
Buy Some TimeFeach AmachGuet ApensAtlantic Lad
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Atlantic Lad faces serious tactical disadvantage as the lone front runner against five dedicated hold-up horses who will all be finishing strongly
WATCH
Buy Some Time returns from 263-day absence with first-time tongue tie - the lengthy break and headgear change suggests significant issues to overcome
NOTE
Guet Apens represents the only yard showing strong recent form at 3/28 and arrives as the progressive type with perfect soft ground record
NOTE
The prominent runners Maillot Blanc and Dollar Collar must track Atlantic Lad closer than usual to prevent him controlling the race completely
WATCH
Multiple hold-up horses could get in each other's way in the home straight if they all make their moves simultaneously from the back of the field
4:46 — Join Racing TV Now Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m7½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
Kahavari likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lady In The Park and Visual Impact led; the map had Kahavari in front.
My Lady Elektra won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Kahavari
Prominent · 2
Visual ImpactRaceview Road
Midfield · 3
Cowboy CooperSimilar StoryMy Lady Elektra
Hold Up · 2
Lady In The ParkAlways A Reason
Kahavari will take the field along as the only confirmed front runner, setting a steady gallop without pressure from the start. Visual Impact and Raceview Road may track closely in second and third, but neither will challenge for the early lead. The lack of pace pressure means Kahavari can dictate fractions and potentially steal a march, while the hold-up horses Lady In The Park, Always A Reason, and My Lady Elektra will need the pace to collapse in the final half-mile. This setup moderately favours prominent racers who can stay close to the pace without over-exerting early.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Steals March
45% probability
If Kahavari maintains a steady gallop and kicks clear approaching the final fence.
The lack of early pressure allows him to conserve energy and exploit his prominent style, while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on testing going. His recent runner-up efforts suggest he's close to winning form.
KahavariVisual ImpactCowboy CooperAlways A Reason
B
Hold-Up Horses Charge Home
30% probability
If the pace becomes truly testing and Kahavari weakens after the second-last fence.
Lady In The Park and Always A Reason can use their finishing kicks on horses that went too hard too early. Both have strong recent form and suit the distance perfectly.
Always A ReasonLady In The ParkMy Lady ElektraVisual Impact
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
20% probability
If Visual Impact or Cowboy Cooper can sit second throughout and challenge Kahavari late.
Their position allows them to monitor the leader while conserving energy for a sustained challenge from the final fence. Visual Impact's trainer form (2/26) suggests confidence despite his recent fall.
Visual ImpactCowboy CooperKahavariAlways A Reason
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If Kahavari goes too slowly early and the race becomes a sprint from the home turn.
The entire field arrives together with stamina less important than a sharp turn of foot. This unlikely scenario would suit horses with high TopSpeed ratings regardless of running style.
Always A ReasonMy Lady ElektraKahavariVisual Impact
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kahavari's jumping under pressure - he's prone to mistakes when challenged and needs to handle Kelso's testing fences cleanly
WATCH
Visual Impact's fitness after 38-day break - any signs of rustiness early could compromise his chance to track the leader effectively
WATCH
Always A Reason's position through the early stages - if connections let him get too far back the steady pace may not suit
NOTE
Lady In The Park's jumping rhythm - she needs to travel smoothly to deliver her finishing kick on this testing ground
NOTE
The pace through the first mile - if Kahavari goes too fast early it opens the door for the hold-up horses behind
5:20 — Racing TV Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)
2m · Soft · CLS4 · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.