Archive›Kelso · 20 April 2026

Kelso

20 April 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

2:00 — Adam Scott Celebratory Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m2f · Good · NOV · 10 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Smoke Trail and Nobotheratall led, as the map showed.

Smoke Trail won at 2.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Smoke TrailNobotheratallThorneylands

Prominent · 3

Hashtag QueenThey Want MeChangemyluck

Midfield · 1

Melbourne Ghost

Hold Up · 3

HerjaBogha BaisteThe Grey Venture

Smoke Trail, Thorneylands and Nobotheratall will ensure a strong gallop from the outset, with all three confirmed front-runners likely to engage early. This creates a searching test of stamina over the extended 2m2f trip, particularly as Smoke Trail has shown the ability to make all and both Thorneylands and Nobotheratall have prominent tendencies. The sustained pace will stretch the field out and expose any stamina limitations. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish through tired leaders, with prominent runners also well-placed if they can settle off the fierce early gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

55% probability

If the three front-runners go too hard early and tie up in the closing stages.

The relentless gallop set by Smoke Trail, Thorneylands and Nobotheratall will create perfect conditions for closers to sweep past tired leaders. Hold-up performers like Herja and Bogha Baiste can exploit their stamina reserves when the pace collapses.

HerjaBogha BaisteThe Grey VentureMelbourne Ghost

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Smoke Trail can dictate terms and kick clear when the pace slackens.

Having made all to win his maiden, Smoke Trail uses his class edge to control the tempo and has enough left to resist challengers. His OR 118 gives him a significant ratings advantage over most of this field.

Smoke TrailThey Want MeChangemyluckHashtag Queen

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Changemyluck or Hashtag Queen can sit close enough to the pace without getting involved early.

The strong gallop will set up perfectly for a horse that can track the leaders without engaging in the early battle. Recent form suggests these prominent runners have the tactical speed to capitalise when the front-runners weaken.

ChangemyluckHashtag QueenThey Want MeHerja

Pace Steadies Early

8% probability

If the front-runners become more tactical and the gallop steadies after the initial sparring.

A slower tempo would favour the leaders who can conserve energy and potentially turn this into a sprint finish. This scenario reduces the stamina test and plays to the front-runners' tactical speed.

ThorneylandsNobotheratallSmoke TrailChangemyluck

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Smoke Trail may not handle the early pressure from Thorneylands and Nobotheratall after 51 days absence

WATCH

Herja's amateur jockey Harry Sexton may struggle to time her challenge properly in a strongly-run race

WATCH

The Grey Venture and Melbourne Ghost both need significant improvement and may lack the class required

NOTE

Changemyluck has twice been placed behind similar quality opposition and could benefit from the strong pace

NOTE

Bogha Baiste's 80-1 third last time suggests the handicapper may have underestimated his current ability

2:30 — Malcolm "Scarra" Scott Memorial Handicap Hurdle

2m6½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Kilmore Rock to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Magic Wave led; the map had Kilmore Rock in front.

Kilmore Rock won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kilmore Rock

Prominent · 4

MenaggioMagic WaveJehol De ThaixDollar Collar

Midfield · 3

Secret SecretStarlyteNosy Neighbour

Hold Up · 3

JericoacoaraRauzanHeart Above

Kilmore Rock will set the pace from the front with little pressure, as the only confirmed front-runner in this field. The prominent runners Menaggio, Jehol De Thaix, Secret Secret, Dollar Collar and Magic Wave will track behind but are unlikely to press the leader aggressively early. This creates a measured tempo over the extended trip, with the real race beginning from two furlongs out when the held-up horses begin their challenges. The sustainable pace and long home straight at Kelso strongly favours hold-up horses who can time their runs late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the pace stays steady throughout allowing closers to unleash finishing kicks

The patient tactics pay dividends as Kilmore Rock sets an even gallop that plays into the hands of those held up. Heart Above, Jericoacoara, Starlyte, Nosy Neighbour and Rauzan all get the perfect setup to produce their best work late.

JericoacoaraHeart AboveNosy NeighbourRauzan

Front Section Holds On

20% probability

If Kilmore Rock gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home

The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the prominent horses fail to bridge the gap effectively. Kilmore Rock's stamina proves decisive over this longer trip with the closers left with too much to do.

Kilmore RockJehol De ThaixMagic WaveDollar Collar

Prominent Tracker Strikes

10% probability

If one of the prominent runners applies pressure mid-race and sustains their effort

The increased tempo stretches the field and prevents the hold-up horses from getting into contention. Jehol De Thaix or Magic Wave benefit from being close enough to strike but not having to make the running throughout.

Jehol De ThaixMagic WaveMenaggioSecret Secret

Surprise Speed Collapse

5% probability

If the pace becomes stop-start with multiple horses trying to dictate late

The tactical battle creates a messy race where positioning becomes crucial rather than pure finishing speed. This chaotic scenario could suit a horse like Dollar Collar who knows the track well despite recent poor form.

Dollar CollarSecret SecretMenaggioStarlyte

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kilmore Rock could set uncontestable fractions if allowed easy lead given his front-running style and recent pulled-up efforts

WATCH

Nosy Neighbour faces significant step up in class from maiden company to this competitive handicap despite first-time cheekpieces

NOTE

Heart Above needs monitoring over this extended 2m6½f trip having never raced beyond 2m5f previously

WATCH

Secret Secret returns after 157-day layoff which raises serious fitness concerns despite course-winning form

NOTE

Multiple headgear changes on Menaggio, Secret Secret, Starlyte and Nosy Neighbour suggest connections seeking improvement

3:00 — Royal Caledonian Hunt Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Old Gregorian likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Looking Splendid led; the map had Old Gregorian in front.

Breizh River won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Old Gregorian

Prominent · 2

Breizh RiverJet Legs

Midfield · 3

Looking SplendidCarrigeen CastleKay Tara Tara

Hold Up · 3

Special RateGarde Des ChampsJoecooker

Old Gregorian will lead with Breizh River and Jet Legs likely to press early, creating a genuine pace over this stamina test. The prominent runners may go too fast given Breizh River's front-running tendencies and Jet Legs returning from a break, potentially setting up a collapse. With six hold-up horses including the in-form Looking Splendid and consistent Special Rate, this becomes a tactical affair where patient riders can capitalise. This pace dynamic strongly favours hold-up horses who can pick off tired leaders in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Dominance

55% probability

If the prominent runners go too fast early and fold

The pace collapses as Old Gregorian, Breizh River and Jet Legs tire, allowing the patient hold-up brigade to sweep past. Looking Splendid's recent course win and Special Rate's consistency under these tactics make them prime beneficiaries.

Looking SplendidSpecial RateJoecookerGarde Des Champs

Sustained Pace Battle

25% probability

If Old Gregorian sets reasonable fractions and stays strong

The leader maintains control while Breizh River and Jet Legs apply pressure without overdoing it early. This creates a genuine staying test where the most reliable stayers prevail regardless of style.

Old GregorianBreizh RiverSpecial RateJoecooker

Front Runner Breakaway

12% probability

If Breizh River takes over from Old Gregorian and kicks clear

The proven course specialist uses his tactical speed to dominate, especially if he replicates his Musselburgh front-running victory. The hold-up horses get too far back on the good ground to make up sufficient ground.

Breizh RiverOld GregorianJet LegsLooking Splendid

Pace Meltdown Scramble

8% probability

If all the prominent runners collapse dramatically in the straight

Every early leader stops badly, creating a messy finish where any horse with energy left can capitalize. The outsiders and unfancied hold-up horses get their chance in a blanket finish.

Carrigeen CastleKay Tara TaraGarde Des ChampsJoecooker

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Looking Splendid could be overbet given the 9lb rise and step up in class from his debut chase romp

WATCH

Old Gregorian's jumping under pressure as he has limited chase experience and may not handle being headed

WATCH

Breizh River's early positioning as he could either press Old Gregorian or sit closer than ideal for his style

NOTE

Jet Legs and Garde Des Champs both returning from long breaks and may need the run despite their ability

NOTE

The hold-up horses getting good positions early as six of them could create traffic problems turning for home

3:30 — Reg And Betty Tweedie Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m7½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Cadell to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cadell led, as the map showed.

Wolfburg won at 2.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cadell

Prominent · 3

Hudson De GrugyRed HappyWalk On Quest

Midfield · 1

Wolfburg

Hold Up · 2

Erne RiverDare To Shout

Cadell is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting a sustainable gallop without pressure through the early stages. Red Happy and Walk On Quest may track him prominently, but with Hudson De Grugy also capable of pressing, the pace could quicken approaching the business end. The hold-up merchants Dare To Shout, Erne River and Wolfburg will need the leaders to come back to them over this staying trip. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers who can sit close to Cadell and strike when the pace lifts, as they'll avoid the traffic issues that could hamper the hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Prevails

45% probability

If Cadell sets reasonable fractions and the prominent horses can stay in touch

The pace will quicken from three out as the trackers pounce, leaving the hold-up horses with too much to do. Hudson De Grugy or Walk On Quest can use their tactical position to full advantage.

Hudson De GrugyWalk On QuestRed HappyCadell

Hold-Up Horse Charges

25% probability

If Cadell goes too fast early or the prominent horses engage in a speed duel

The leaders will come back dramatically in the closing stages, allowing the patient riders to sweep through. Wolfburg's stamina or Dare To Shout's class could prove decisive.

WolfburgDare To ShoutErne RiverHudson De Grugy

Front Runner Dominates

20% probability

If Cadell jumps well and no one pressures him through the middle stages

He'll have too much left in the tank for the closers, maintaining his advantage all the way to the line. His course record and front-running style perfectly suit this scenario.

CadellRed HappyHudson De GrugyWalk On Quest

Fitness Tells Late

10% probability

If Red Happy's 393-day layoff shows or other horses don't handle the ground

The race will become a test of recent match fitness over the final half-mile. Those with regular recent racing will pull clear of the rusty returnees.

Hudson De GrugyWalk On QuestWolfburgCadell

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cadell could fold quickly if his recent stamina issues resurface, despite his front-running advantage

WATCH

Red Happy's 393-day absence may tell in the closing stages despite his previous excellent form

NOTE

Hudson De Grugy's recent Carlisle form suggests he's perfectly tuned for this type of race shape

WATCH

The hold-up horses Wolfburg and Dare To Shout need the pace to collapse to have realistic chances

NOTE

Walk On Quest's course record gives him claims if he can recapture last season's form

4:00 — Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m2f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Gozo to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Gozo led, as the map showed.

Big Love won at 2.38 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gozo

Prominent · 3

Parisian FashionGonninoOzzy Cosmo

Midfield · 4

The Best WayBig LoveEllistrin BayAlvesta

Hold Up · 3

Highly RecommendedStruthInterchangeable

Gozo is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead with minimal early pressure. The prominent runners Parisian Fashion and Gonnino will likely track within a few lengths, but neither has shown aggressive early tactics. With most of the field comprising hold-up horses (The Best Way, Ellistrin Bay, Big Love, Alvesta, Highly Recommended, Struth, Interchangeable), this sets up as a steadily-run affair where the pace will build gradually from the back of the last flight. This pace profile strongly favours the front-runner and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will develop when the large contingent of hold-up horses all look for racing room simultaneously in the home straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Gozo handles the trip and jumping under pressure

The confirmed front-runner gets his own way in front and proves hard to peg back when the hold-up horses make their move too late. Traffic problems behind help his cause as rivals get shuffled back.

GozoParisian FashionGonninoThe Best Way

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow for the leader to sustain his kick

Parisian Fashion or Gonnino can position perfectly behind the leader and have enough tactical pace to strike approaching the last flight. The fresh Parisian Fashion looks most likely to benefit from this scenario.

Parisian FashionGonninoBig LoveThe Best Way

Hold-Up Traffic Chaos

15% probability

If the large group of hold-up horses get badly hampered in the straight

Multiple runners coming from behind creates a messy finish where positioning and racing luck becomes crucial. The Best Way's class could tell if getting a clear run.

The Best WayBig LoveHighly RecommendedStruth

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Gozo stops quickly or makes jumping errors

The race becomes a sprint from the last flight where natural pace and fitness levels matter most. Fresher runners with recent form hold the edge.

GonninoBig LoveAlvestaOzzy Cosmo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gozo's jumping under pressure - pulled up last time and needs to handle the sustained pace

WATCH

Traffic problems in home straight with eight hold-up horses all needing racing room simultaneously

WATCH

Parisian Fashion's fitness after 112-day break despite good fresh record and first-time visor

NOTE

The Best Way's readiness returning from 422-day layoff having won impressively last time out

NOTE

Early pace development - if too slow it will disadvantage Gozo's front-running tactics

4:30 — Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m2f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Hunters Spring likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Miss Friday Lions led; the map had Hunters Spring in front.

Rememberthename won at 2.75 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hunters Spring

Prominent · 3

Barrakilla VageFine PointGlenridding

Midfield · 3

Miss Friday LionsMs Cindy KateChosen Hero

Hold Up · 3

RememberthenameLester MailNewport

Hunters Spring will set a moderate tempo from the front with Fine Point and Glenridding tracking closely in prominent positions. The pace will be sustainable through the early stages with no obvious pace pressers to force the issue. This creates a rhythm race where the field will remain compact turning for home, leading to a sprint finish over the final 3-4 furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a late surge, as the modest early gallop will allow closers to get into contention from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the pace remains steady and the field stays bunched turning for home

The lack of early pressure allows patient rides to pay dividends as closers sweep past tiring leaders in the final furlong. Horses with tactical speed from off the pace will have every chance to unleash their finishing kicks.

NewportRememberthenameMs Cindy KateLester Mail

Front Runners Steal It

25% probability

If Hunters Spring gets an easy lead and kicks clear approaching the last

The sustainable gallop preserves energy for a strong finish, while hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up. Prominent racers who can quicken from the front prove hard to peg back.

Hunters SpringFine PointBarrakilla VageGlenridding

Mid-Race Pace Injection

12% probability

If Fine Point or Glenridding take the race to Hunters Spring from halfway

The tempo lifts significantly through the middle stages, stringing out the field and creating gaps. This benefits horses with stamina who can sustain their effort rather than rely on pure finishing speed.

Lester MailNewportRememberthenameMs Cindy Kate

Messy Jumping Disrupts

8% probability

If multiple horses make jumping errors or fall at the hurdles

The race becomes a tactical scramble with the pace disrupted by mistakes and unseated riders. Those left standing with clear rounds benefit regardless of running style, creating unexpected opportunities.

Miss Friday LionsChosen HeroGlenriddingBarrakilla Vage

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Hunters Spring at the first few hurdles as any early mistake could disrupt the likely steady pace scenario

WATCH

Monitor if Fine Point or Glenridding take the race to Hunters Spring earlier than expected, changing the complexion completely

NOTE

Keep an eye on Miss Friday Lions' jumping technique given her recent poor round at Newcastle

WATCH

Watch for any market moves on Ms Cindy Kate given the Nicky Richards yard is in good form recently

NOTE

Observe if Lester Mail shows any signs of rustiness given his 64-day absence from the track

5:00 — Church House Investments Buccleuch Cup (A Maiden Hunters' Chase) (Corinthian Spirit Qualifier)

2m7½f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

The Back Braes to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Flying Skipper led; the map had The Back Braes in front.

Boley Bob won at 1.36 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Back Braes

Prominent · 1

Amma Lord

Midfield · 4

Phantoms CaveFlying SkipperBoley BobHigh On The Hill

Hold Up · 2

Bentley RoadTheoldboggroad

The Back Braes is the only confirmed front-runner and will set a steady pace without pressure from this small field. With most runners having unknown or hold-up styles, the pace will be comfortable through the early stages before quickening from three out. The lack of pace pressure means The Back Braes can dictate terms, though his tendency to fade in the finish remains a concern. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can position close enough to strike when the tempo lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dictates

45% probability

If The Back Braes gets an uncontested lead and maintains stamina

The steady gallop suits his rhythm and he can kick clear approaching the final fence before others get organized. His recent return to form and course knowledge give him every chance to finally break his maiden tag.

The Back BraesFlying SkipperPhantoms CaveTheoldboggroad

Class Performer Strikes

30% probability

If Phantoms Cave or Theoldboggroad can position prominently behind the leader

Their superior form in points this year tells, with Phantoms Cave's easy 16-length win or Theoldboggroad's course experience proving decisive. The steady pace allows them to time their challenges perfectly from the back of the small field.

Phantoms CaveTheoldboggroadBoley BobFlying Skipper

Pace Collapses Late

15% probability

If The Back Braes fades dramatically in the final half-mile as he has before

The race becomes a sprint from the second-last fence, suiting those with finishing kicks held in reserve. Boley Bob's recent form or a rejuvenated Amma Lord could capitalize on the slow early pace.

Boley BobAmma LordHigh On The HillBentley Road

Shock Outsider

10% probability

If the market leaders all underperform due to jumping errors or fitness issues

High On The Hill's early season point wins or Bentley Road's return from a long break could surprise at big odds. The small field increases the chance of an upset if favorites fail to fire.

High On The HillBentley RoadFlying SkipperAmma Lord

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Back Braes could fade dramatically in final half-mile as his record shows he struggles to see out his races.

WATCH

Phantoms Cave and Boley Bob are lightly raced under rules and could struggle with the step up from point-to-point competition.

WATCH

Several runners including Bentley Road and High On The Hill return from lengthy layoffs which could impact fitness levels.

NOTE

Flying Skipper has the beating of The Back Braes on recent point form which could reverse if pace dynamics change.

NOTE

Theoldboggroad's previous course form of finishing third here gives him a significant tactical advantage over newcomers.

5:35 — Racing TV Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

Dilrisk likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Eagle Warrior led; the map had Dilrisk in front.

Midday Rendezvous won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dilrisk

Prominent · 1

Cape Warrior

Midfield · 3

YorgunnarockTeescomponents GalMidday Rendezvous

Hold Up · 1

Eagle Warrior

Dilrisk will take them along from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field, creating a sustainable gallop that won't burn off his stamina reserves. Cape Warrior and Midday Rendezvous can track him in the prominent positions, while Eagle Warrior will be held up at the back with the two debutants likely sitting mid-division. With minimal early pressure on Dilrisk, this sets up perfectly for the front-runner to control the tempo and kick clear when it matters. This tactical scenario strongly favours prominent runners and front-runners who can dictate terms without fierce early pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Dilrisk gets an uncontested lead and sustains his gallop to the finish

The pace-setter controls every yard and kicks clear in the straight, while prominent trackers benefit from the honest tempo but can't close the gap. This rewards horses who can travel kindly behind the leader without needing a strong finish.

DilriskCape WarriorMidday RendezvousEagle Warrior

Prominent Pressure Cooker

30% probability

If Cape Warrior and Midday Rendezvous apply sustained pressure to Dilrisk from halfway

The sustained pressure forces a genuine gallop that finds out the front-runner's stamina, allowing the classier prominent runners to take over in the final furlong. Quality and fitness under pressure becomes decisive.

Midday RendezvousCape WarriorEagle WarriorDilrisk

Late Hold-Up Charge

15% probability

If the early pace becomes very sedate and Eagle Warrior gets a strong ride from the back

The crawling pace sets up perfectly for a late closer to sweep past tired leaders, with Eagle Warrior's point-to-point background giving him the finishing kick needed. The tactical switch from his usual style pays dividends.

Eagle WarriorTeescomponents GalMidday RendezvousCape Warrior

Newcomer Surprise

10% probability

If either Yorgunnarock or Teescomponents Gal shows unexpectedly sharp early speed

One of the debutants breaks the expected pace pattern by going forward early, disrupting the rhythm and creating opportunities for outsiders with untapped ability. Breeding and stable confidence overcome inexperience.

YorgunnarockTeescomponents GalCape WarriorEagle Warrior

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dilrisk getting a soft lead could prove decisive as no other natural pace-setter will pressure him early.

WATCH

Cape Warrior and Midday Rendezvous both need to overcome inexperience under sustained pressure in the closing stages.

WATCH

Yorgunnarock and Teescomponents Gal are complete unknowns whose market support could reveal stable confidence.

NOTE

Eagle Warrior's hold-up style needs the pace to be strong enough to set up his late challenge.

NOTE

The 37-day breaks for Midday Rendezvous, Dilrisk and Eagle Warrior suggest all three should be fresh and ready.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 April 2026.

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