Archive›Kempton (AW) · 1 April 2026

Kempton (AW)

1 April 2026 · 7 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

5:30 — Virgin Bet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

6:00 — Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Nordic Norm likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Havana Touch and Caph Star and Magical Merlin led; the map had Nordic Norm in front.

Havana Touch won at 2.62 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Nordic Norm

Prominent · 1

Beta Reader

Midfield · 4

Billy MillHavana TouchKing Of CharmChico Dulce

Hold Up · 3

Magical MerlinCaph StarPenfolds Grange

Nordic Norm and Beta Reader will set a moderate early pace from the front, with no other confirmed pace-setters in this field of predominantly hold-up horses. The large contingent of hold-up runners (6 horses including Magical Merlin, Penfolds Grange, and Caph Star) will create significant traffic problems in the final 2f as they all attempt to make their moves simultaneously.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Suits Leaders

35% probability

If Nordic Norm and Beta Reader maintain an uncontested lead through steady fractions

The front two build an unassailable advantage as the hold-up horses leave their runs too late in the sprint finish. Nordic Norm's prominent style and Beta Reader's recent placed form give them the edge.

Nordic NormBeta ReaderCaph StarMagical Merlin

Traffic Chaos Favors Handy

30% probability

If the large group of hold-up horses encounter serious interference when making their moves

Horses positioned just off the pace avoid the scramble and capitalize on the clear run. Caph Star and Penfolds Grange benefit from being able to pick their way through.

Caph StarPenfolds GrangeBilly MillHavana Touch

Strong Pace Suits Closers

25% probability

If Nordic Norm and Beta Reader go too fast early trying to build a big lead

The pace collapses in the final furlong allowing the strongest finishers to sweep past. Magical Merlin and Billy Mill's proven hold-up patterns become decisive advantages.

Magical MerlinBilly MillPenfolds GrangeChico Dulce

Outsider Benefits from Chaos

10% probability

If the race becomes a complete scramble with multiple horses impeding each other

A horse at longer odds finds the clearest passage and capitalizes on the field's misfortune. King Of Charm or Chico Dulce could sneak through for place money.

King Of CharmChico DulceHavana TouchBeta Reader

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Nordic Norm's early pace-setting - if he goes too fast or too slow it will dictate the entire race outcome

WATCH

Traffic problems in the final 2f with six hold-up horses all needing room to make their runs simultaneously

WATCH

Beta Reader's effectiveness over 1m after showing better recent form over 10f trips

NOTE

Caph Star's ability to get competitive position from hold-up style given his perfect recent going record

NOTE

Whether Magical Merlin can finally convert consistent placed efforts into a win at this level

6:30 — Virgin Bet Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

1m · Good · NOV · 13 runners

Pureis King to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Balzac and Pureis King led, as the map showed.

Balzac won at 2.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pureis King

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 8

Madame PassantFizzy BearDijon GoneClaytons KolatonicBu HailCribbinsAlembicTiny Tiger

Hold Up · 4

West Hill RosieBalzacWinding StreamMagic Trip

Pureis King will likely lead from the start with minimal early pressure, as the field is dominated by hold-up runners who prefer to come from behind. This creates a tactical race where the pace could be modest early, potentially favoring those who can get handy positions like Balzac and Winding Stream who have shown ability to track the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Suits Leaders

40% probability

If Pureis King sets a steady tempo without being pressured early

The lack of pace pressure allows front-running tactics to work effectively over this mile trip. Hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up in the straight.

Pureis KingBalzacWinding StreamClaytons Kolatonic

Strong Pace Exposes Leader

35% probability

If multiple horses press Pureis King early or the pace quickens significantly

The lone leader gets softened up by honest pace, creating perfect conditions for closers with stamina. The race sets up ideally for those who can finish strongly over the mile.

Winding StreamMagic TripBalzacClaytons Kolatonic

Tactical Muddle Favors Handy

20% probability

If the pace becomes very slow with riders waiting on each other

A sprint finish develops from the 2-furlong pole with positioning becoming crucial. Horses prominent early but not committed to leading gain the decisive advantage.

BalzacClaytons KolatonicWinding StreamBu Hail

Unknown Quantities Surprise

5% probability

If the lightly-raced horses Fizzy Bear or Madame Passant show significant improvement

The market principals fail to fire and one of the unproven runners capitalizes on favorable race conditions. Previous form gets turned on its head by unexposed ability.

Fizzy BearMadame PassantMagic TripDijon Gone

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pureis King's stamina reserves over this mile trip as he has faded badly in recent finishes

WATCH

Whether Fizzy Bear or Madame Passant show market support indicating stable confidence in their chances

NOTE

How aggressively the hold-up horses are ridden early as positioning could be crucial in a large field

WATCH

Winding Stream's ability to repeat recent winning form when stepping back up in class

NOTE

Whether any horse attempts to press Pureis King early which would completely change the race dynamics

7:00 — Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Pints In Peace likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Storm Point and Pints In Peace led, as the map showed.

Storm Point won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pints In Peace

Prominent · 1

Black Endeavour

Midfield · 4

DeludedAhead Of FashionStorm PointLion Of Mali

Hold Up · 2

Twilight GlowShafi

Pints In Peace is the only confirmed early pace setter with Black Endeavour likely to sit just behind, creating a modest tempo in the early stages. With six hold-up horses led by Shafi, Deluded, and Lion Of Mali, this becomes a tactical affair where the pace could quicken significantly from halfway as the prominent pair try to steal a march on the patient brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapses Early

35% probability

If Pints In Peace and Black Endeavour fail to maintain gallop after 4f

The field bunches dangerously turning for home with hold-up horses still on the bridle. Lion Of Mali and Shafi emerge from the pack to capitalize on their superior finishing kicks.

Lion Of MaliShafiDeludedTwilight Glow

Sustained Tempo Battle

30% probability

If Black Endeavour presses Pints In Peace from the 5f pole creating genuine pace

The early leaders stretch the field but tire in the final furlong, allowing late-running Deluded and Storm Point to sweep past. Deluded's recent 7f win over good ground gives him the edge in a driving finish.

DeludedStorm PointLion Of MaliAhead Of Fashion

Front Pair Dominate

25% probability

If Pints In Peace gets an easy lead with Black Endeavour tracking without pressure

The two prominent runners kick clear entering the straight before the hold-up brigade can respond effectively. Pints In Peace's recent 7f success and Black Endeavour's 6f win suggest they can hold on from this tactical position.

Pints In PeaceBlack EndeavourLion Of MaliShafi

Mid-Race Injection

10% probability

If multiple hold-up horses make their moves simultaneously at the 3f marker

The race becomes a cavalry charge with Twilight Glow and Ahead Of Fashion joining the mix from their patient positions. Twilight Glow's OR 74 rating becomes decisive in a blanket finish where class tells.

Twilight GlowAhead Of FashionDeludedLion Of Mali

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pints In Peace could get too easy a lead if Black Endeavour doesn't press early enough

WATCH

Lion Of Mali's two recent wins make him dangerous if getting clear run from back markers

NOTE

Deluded dropping significantly in grade after last-time win could find this too easy

WATCH

Storm Point has only three recent runs but all show consistent effort on similar conditions

NOTE

Twilight Glow needs strong pace to be effective but hasn't shown a place in recent similar going efforts

7:30 — Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Parisian Scholar to leadHISTORIC

Race shape

Lead · 1

Parisian Scholar

Prominent · 1

Starship Trooper

Midfield · 1

Green Falcon

Hold Up · 2

Moment Of LightDevil's Peak

Parisian Scholar will lead from the start with no early pressure, setting a measured gallop in this small field of predominantly hold-up horses. The lack of pace pressure means Starship Trooper may track closer than usual, while Moment Of Light, Green Falcon, and Devil's Peak will all need the race to develop into a sprint finish to show their best.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Parisian Scholar faces no serious challenge through the middle stages

The leader maintains control throughout and has enough left to resist late challengers up the straight. His recent Kempton win shows he can dictate from the front successfully.

Parisian ScholarStarship TrooperMoment Of LightDevil's Peak

Late Sprint Finish

35% probability

If the pace becomes very slow and the field bunches up turning for home

All the hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with a furious final two furlongs. Moment Of Light's perfect record on similar going gives him the edge in a driving finish.

Moment Of LightGreen FalconDevil's PeakParisian Scholar

Prominent Horse Strikes

15% probability

If Starship Trooper tracks the leader closely and kicks approaching the final furlong

The only prominent runner uses tactical advantage to bridge the gap between early leader and closers. His recent third over course and distance suggests he's finding form.

Starship TrooperParisian ScholarMoment Of LightGreen Falcon

Sustained Pace Backfires

5% probability

If Parisian Scholar goes too fast early trying to build an unassailable lead

The leader empties his tank and gets swamped by all four closers in the final furlong. This becomes a straight fight between the hold-up horses with freshest finishing kick.

Devil's PeakGreen FalconMoment Of LightStarship Trooper

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If Parisian Scholar goes off too fast in the opening half-mile, he'll be vulnerable to the quartet of closers

WATCH

Moment Of Light needs to be held up longer than usual given the likely moderate pace

NOTE

Starship Trooper's position after two furlongs will indicate whether he'll track the leader or drop back

WATCH

The final two furlongs could see all four hold-up horses making their move simultaneously

NOTE

Green Falcon and Devil's Peak both need the race to become a sprint to have realistic winning chances

8:00 — Virgin Bet Handicap (London Sprint Series Qualifier)

6f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Chhota Saab to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Arry Up and Runamara led; the map had Chhota Saab in front.

Arry Up won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Chhota Saab

Prominent · 4

UniterLovethiswayagainArry UpFullstop

Midfield · 3

RunamaraAnorah UnleashedJungle Knight

Hold Up · 3

Corniche GirlStock MarketMadman

Chhota Saab will lead unopposed in this field with multiple prominent runners but no other natural front-runners. With Uniter, Lovethiswayagain, Arry Up, Fullstop, Anorah Unleashed and Runamara all likely to sit handy, the early pace should be genuine but sustainable. This setup favors either Chhota Saab if he can maintain his kick, or the hold-up horses Corniche Girl, Madman, Jungle Knight and Stock Market if the pace becomes strong enough.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Kicks

35% probability

If Chhota Saab gets an easy lead and the prominent pack doesn't pressure early.

The pace becomes too slow for the closers and Chhota Saab has enough left to resist late challenges. Lovethiswayagain and Arry Up pick up the pieces from their prominent positions.

Chhota SaabLovethiswayagainArry UpUniter

Strong Pace Suits Closers

30% probability

If the prominent runners Uniter, Lovethiswayagain and Arry Up pressure Chhota Saab early.

The genuine pace sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses with Corniche Girl and Madman sweeping through late. Jungle Knight also benefits from the strong gallop despite his modest recent form.

Corniche GirlMadmanJungle KnightStock Market

Prominent Horse Times Run

25% probability

If one of the handy horses can sit off Chhota Saab without getting involved in early pace battles.

Lovethiswayagain or Arry Up get the perfect trip just behind the leader and have enough pace to kick clear. The hold-up horses don't get enough pace to close effectively.

LovethiswayagainArry UpUniterRunamara

Late Fade Pattern

10% probability

If Chhota Saab sets steady fractions but multiple prominent runners get into a prolonged battle from 3f out.

The early leaders all tie up in the final furlong allowing a closer like Corniche Girl to pick up the pieces. Stock Market could also benefit despite his fading tendencies if the pace is truly strong.

Corniche GirlJungle KnightMadmanStock Market

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Chhota Saab getting an uncontested lead as he becomes very hard to pass despite his poor strike rate on this going.

WATCH

Whether the prominent pack of Uniter, Lovethiswayagain and Arry Up will cooperate or pressure each other early.

WATCH

Fullstop and Stock Market both showing their usual late fade patterns which would confirm the pace is adequate.

NOTE

Corniche Girl's position turning for home as she needs to be within striking distance to use her proven finishing kick.

NOTE

How quickly Madman begins his challenge as he needs time to wind up from his hold-up position.

8:30 — Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap (London Sprint Series Qualifier)

6f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

True Promise likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Em Four led; the map had True Promise in front.

Expert Agent won at 4.33 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

True Promise

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

Brazen IdolSerenity DreamAlpine GirlMiddleton ViewExpert AgentUp The Anti

Hold Up · 3

State Of MadnessEm FourRuby Red Gove

True Promise is the only confirmed front-runner in a field dominated by hold-up horses, giving him uncontested early control to set a sustainable tempo. With 9 of 10 runners preferring to come from off the pace, this creates a classic scenario where the leader can dictate fractions and kick clear before the cavalry charge arrives. The lack of pace pressure should see True Promise still traveling well turning for home, making the closers' task significantly harder.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Prevails

35% probability

If True Promise gets soft fractions and kicks clear early in the straight

True Promise builds an unassailable lead as the hold-up brigade leave their runs too late on the sustained pace. The front-runner's tactical advantage proves decisive despite his modest recent form.

True PromiseState Of MadnessAlpine GirlBrazen Idol

Strong Closer Surge

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong or True Promise weakens markedly

The hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks with Em Four and State Of Madness having the class edge. Multiple runners converge in a bunched finish favoring the strongest stayers.

State Of MadnessEm FourSerenity DreamRuby Red Gove

Pace Compromise Muddle

25% probability

If True Promise sets moderate fractions but multiple closers time their runs perfectly

The race becomes a messy affair with no decisive tactical advantage, creating opportunities for consistent performers. Alpine Girl and Brazen Idol benefit from their recent winning form in similar conditions.

Alpine GirlBrazen IdolTrue PromiseExpert Agent

Outsider Ambush

10% probability

If the favorites get caught in traffic or the pace becomes truly run to suit a swooper

The tactical setup creates chaos allowing a horse like Ruby Red Gove or Middleton View to exploit gaps. Limited data horses like Ruby Red Gove thrive when the race falls apart tactically.

Ruby Red GoveMiddleton ViewUp The AntiExpert Agent

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

True Promise must be monitored early - if he faces any pace pressure or fails to break cleanly, the entire race dynamic changes

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the straight with 9 hold-up horses likely converging simultaneously from the back

NOTE

State Of Madness and Em Four need to be positioned handy enough to strike given their class advantage

WATCH

Ruby Red Gove has minimal turf form data making her finishing kick unpredictable in this grade

NOTE

Alpine Girl's recent 5f wins suggest she has pace to be closer than usual if needed tactically

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 1 April 2026.

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