Unionville won at 13.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bundok
Prominent · 1
Musical Soldier
Midfield · 4
VivianaChapman's PeakOrange EmperorSuperstorm
Hold Up · 2
Something ComingUnionville
Bundok is the lone confirmed front-runner in this 7f Kempton AW heat and, with no serious challenger for the lead, should bowl along at a sustainable gallop without being harassed — a controlled, single-pace race is the most likely shape. Musical Soldier is a genuine prominent type and will look to sit just off Bundok's shoulder, giving the leader company but not a true duel. The remainder of the field — Something Coming, Viviana, Chapman's Peak, Orange Emperor, Superstorm, and Unionville — are natural hold-up horses, but the field contains far more of them than the race shape can accommodate at the rear; Viviana, Chapman's Peak and Orange Emperor are the most likely to be shuffled forward into midfield against their instincts rather than settling in their true position. A steady-to-moderate pace set by a lone front-runner on a flat, right-handed polytrack favours horses racing prominently or from just off the pace who can quicken into the straight — pure hold-up horses will find the tempo insufficient to set up the late surge they need.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Bundok Dictates Comfortably
58% probability
If Bundok is allowed to stride clear unchallenged and sets a measured, even tempo that suits the horse in behind rather than the closers.
Bundok rolls along in front with Musical Soldier tracking closely, and the moderate gallop means stamina reserves are intact turning in, rewarding the horse that can quicken soonest from a handy position; hold-up horses simply cannot generate enough momentum from the rear to reel in front-runners on a flat track with limited pace.
Musical SoldierBundokSomething ComingUnionville
B
Prominent Pair Dominate
20% probability
If Musical Soldier presses Bundok hard enough to force a genuine gallop and the pair pull clear of a tightly-bunched midfield pack.
A true contested pace would stretch the field early and expose the hold-up horses who are already out of their natural positions, but Musical Soldier's excellent recent form (three wins in last five) makes this a realistic secondary shape with a horse well-placed to benefit from any tiring leader.
Musical SoldierSomething ComingUnionvilleViviana
C
Midfield Closers Pounce
14% probability
If the early pace is genuinely fast enough to soften the front two and a horse from just off the pace produces a strong late run.
This scenario requires Viviana, Chapman's Peak or Orange Emperor to travel smoothly in what would be an artificially compressed midfield, then deliver a sustained finish — plausible only if a stronger-than-expected gallop is set; all three carry STYLE_FIT discounts as natural hold-up horses racing out of role.
VivianaChapman's PeakOrange EmperorUnionville
D
Closers Finish Off Race
8% probability
If the pace collapses sharply in the straight and a trailing horse swoops from the back of the field.
This is the least likely shape given the flat, speed-friendly Kempton AW configuration and a single front-runner unlikely to set a scorching pace; Something Coming and Superstorm would need an improbable late sprint for this to materialise, and Superstorm's headgear (visor) adds further uncertainty over its reliability.
Musical Soldier is a genuine danger to all: three wins in last six, a style that maps directly onto the pace shape, and a 1-day turnaround is the only flag — watch if it travels easily behind Bundok turning in.
WATCH
Bundok's 82-day absence and step up from 6f to 7f are unproven quantities; if the horse fails to stride clear early or ties up in the final furlong, the whole pace map collapses and the race opens up for whoever is closest to the front.
WATCH
Viviana, Chapman's Peak and Orange Emperor are all genuine hold-up types squeezed into midfield positions — watch the early stages to see if any drift back to their natural berth, as a congested midfield with misplaced horses could cause trouble at a crucial stage of the race.
NOTE
The going is confirmed Standard to Slow throughout the card, which adds a small stamina premium for the 7f trip — horses with proven AW form (Musical Soldier, Something Coming, Unionville) gain a marginal edge over those whose placed form came on Good turf.
NOTE
The apprentice claiming context matters: Libby Swallow (7lb) on Musical Soldier delivers the biggest weight relief in the field — on an OR of 61 that claim is significant and inflates the horse's competitive weight-adjusted profile relative to rivals carrying fewer or no claims.
6:00 — Unibet More Extra Place Races Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)
7f · Standard · CLS3 · 11 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
Sierra Belle and Stormy Winter and Asgar led, as the map showed.
Sierra Belle won at 3.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Stormy Winter
Prominent · 3
Snow On The BeachAsgarSierra Belle
Midfield · 4
Love AlwaysI Am RoyalAl WidyanAgent Rose
Hold Up · 4
Spirit Of ProgressFarasanCoatimundiBlue Victory
Stormy Winter is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 12-runner novice and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, Cieren Fallon can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front on what is effectively a Standard to Slow surface at Kempton's 6f AW straight. The pace will be honest but not brutal — a lone leader setting their own rhythm over six furlongs on this track typically produces a thorough test of finishing speed rather than a truly searching gallop, meaning the lead becomes a prime tactical asset. Al Widyan and Agent Rose are genuine hold-up horses by nature but, with the field carrying more hold-up types than the race map can accommodate at the rear, both are likely to find themselves racing closer to midfield than their natural position suggests, softening any late-closing threat they might otherwise pose. This race shape firmly favours horses who can race prominently or press the pace from a handy position, as Stormy Winter's uncontested lead will set a tempo that suits those tracking within two or three lengths, giving them first run on the home straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stormy Winter controls
60% probability
If Stormy Winter bowls along unchallenged and sets a fair but not excessive pace, dictating throughout.
Cieren Fallon gets a soft lead and controls every yard, arriving at the furlong pole full of running; horses tracking prominently get the clearest passage into the straight and first crack at the leader.
Stormy WinterSierra BelleAsgarSnow On The Beach
B
Prominent racer pounces
22% probability
If a prominent horse tracks Stormy Winter within two lengths and produces a strong finishing kick.
The leader is caught late by a horse who has enjoyed the ideal stalking position, with the Standard to Slow surface ensuring the mid-race tempo is not quick enough to expose the leaders early.
Sierra BelleAsgarI Am RoyalSnow On The Beach
C
Pace collapse, closers run on
11% probability
If Stormy Winter sets a stronger pace than expected and ties up inside the final furlong.
Horses from midfield who travel smoothly then get a run down the rail or wide could mop up, but this scenario is tempered by the fact that Al Widyan and Agent Rose — the truest hold-up types — are likely mapped closer to midfield and may not find their natural late gear.
Al WidyanFarasanBlue VictoryAgent Rose
D
Chaotic early pace
7% probability
If rivals attempt to challenge Stormy Winter for the lead, creating a contested and faster-than-expected early gallop.
The pace dynamic breaks down with multiple horses vying for position in the first two furlongs, leaving all front-runners exposed; a horse that drops back from a prominent position and delivers a sustained run through the field would benefit most.
I Am RoyalBlue VictoryFarasanCoatimundi
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Stormy Winter's early lead is the race's defining tactical factor — watch whether any rival challenges her for the front in the opening furlong, as any pressure could materially change the outcome.
WATCH
Sierra Belle is the most prominently styled, in-form runner in the field; watch how quickly Rossa Ryan positions her behind the leader, as anything beyond three lengths off the pace may cost her the winning advantage.
WATCH
Al Widyan and Agent Rose are genuine hold-up horses who will likely race closer to midfield than their natural style dictates — watch whether they find a clear run down the straight or get boxed in behind the pack.
NOTE
The going is officially Standard to Slow throughout tonight's card, which is slower than the Goodwood Good ground most runners have experienced — watch for any horse who lacks the necessary stride pattern to handle the slower AW surface.
NOTE
Love Always debuts with no form data and unknown style; watch for unexpected early speed or a wide draw that could disrupt the projected pace map in the first two furlongs.
Fortitudine led; the map had Shadow Road in front.
Fortitudine won at 1.25 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Shadow Road
Prominent · 1
Fortitudine
Midfield · 2
Roxy PowerBrave Hunter
Hold Up · 2
No Ordinary JoeAnchor
Shadow Road is the confirmed front-runner and, with only one genuine pace-setter in a six-runner field over 1m3f at Kempton AW, the early fractions are likely to be measured and controlled rather than pressured. Fortitudine, though mapped as prominent, will sit just off Shadow Road's shoulder, creating a conventional, compressed lead group with the rest — Anchor, No Ordinary Joe, and Brave Hunter — tracking further back. The Standard to Slow surface at Kempton tonight will stretch stamina in the home straight, rewarding horses that travel smoothly through the race rather than those who expend energy fighting for position early. This race shape strongly favours a prominent runner who can latch onto Shadow Road's sustainable gallop and produce a clean, decisive finish — a hold-up horse launching from deep will need a strong enough tempo to have been softened up, which one controlled front-runner is unlikely to generate. Brave Hunter is a genuine prominent type pushed into a midfield map position because Fortitudine and Shadow Road are already filling the prominent slots ahead of it; Shadow Road is most likely to actually secure the rail and front-running berth, with Fortitudine best placed to lock in second position.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front, Prominent Wins
71% probability
If Shadow Road dictates a steady, uncontested gallop and the race sets up for the horse tracking closest.
Shadow Road rolls along at a sustainable clip, allowing Fortitudine to travel just off the pace in a rhythm-perfect position before asserting in the final furlong; Kempton's flat AW surface and Standard to Slow going reward exactly this style of prominent, patient racing.
FortitudineShadow RoadBrave HunterAnchor
B
Front Runner Holds On
14% probability
If Shadow Road's recent course-and-distance win translates into an unassailable lead that none can reel in.
Shadow Road, last seen winning over this C&D on Standard going, sets a pace so comfortable in front that no rival can close the gap in the straight; the Standard to Slow conditions limit the closing kick of hold-up horses, allowing the leader to bank stamina and sprint clear.
Shadow RoadFortitudineBrave HunterRoxy Power
C
Closer Delivers Late
9% probability
If the pace collapses or the hold-up horses get an unexpectedly strong tempo to run into.
Anchor or Roxy Power would need Shadow Road to seriously misfire or a tactical incident to generate the kind of end-to-end gallop that brings them into play; given one dominant pace-setter and a slow surface, this is the least intuitive shape for this field.
AnchorRoxy PowerNo Ordinary JoeFortitudine
D
Chaos, Order Disrupted
6% probability
If Shadow Road dwells, refuses to lead, or the field bunches and produces an untidy tactical race.
A scrambled pace would open the race up to Brave Hunter, whose genuine prominence means it could seize a forward position if the early order breaks down; No Ordinary Joe, despite its age and declining form, has won at 20f and could benefit from an unusually slow, compressed race that turns into an endurance test.
Brave HunterRoxy PowerFortitudineAnchor
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Shadow Road (front-runner) — if it is allowed to roll along unchallenged at a comfortable clip, the race shape locks in immediately; watch whether anything attempts to harry it in the first half-mile, because if nothing does, the race is effectively set.
WATCH
Fortitudine — William Buick will dictate when and how hard he presses Shadow Road; if Buick moves early into the straight, the race could be over quickly and runners further back will have no answer.
WATCH
Brave Hunter — returning after 55 days with a visor, a natural front-runner squeezed back in the order; watch for it pulling hard or failing to settle if it cannot secure its preferred position behind the leader.
NOTE
Roxy Power — unknown profile and no visible last-run date means it is the one runner who could produce an unexpected pace injection or behavioural quirk that disrupts the settled rhythm Shadow Road is trying to create.
NOTE
No Ordinary Joe — at 10 years old and finishing last on its most recent run, monitor whether it is even competitive early; if it drops out tamely, the field effectively becomes five runners and the pace dynamic tightens further around Fortitudine and Shadow Road.
7:30 — Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)
6f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners
Lead contested: Zoustar Dreams v Got The BootyHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Remi Mae won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Zoustar DreamsGot The Booty
Prominent · 3
EgotisticalStartled LadyAmelia's Joy
Midfield · 1
Overbudget
Hold Up · 2
Just Queen HighRemi Mae
Zoustar Dreams and Got The Booty are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the outset over this 6f Kempton AW trip, creating a genuinely competitive early pace rather than an uncontested gallop. Zoustar Dreams has the stronger lead-from-the-front profile with gate speed on turf-equivalent surfaces, while Got The Booty — returning after 79 days — will press hard on her outside, ensuring the tempo is honest to strong throughout. Prominent types Amelia's Joy, Egotistical, and Startled Lady will be racing for positions just off the pace, with the field holding more forward-biased runners than can all secure their natural spot, meaning Overbudget — a genuine prominent racer — is most likely to be shuffled back further than ideal. This shape — contested pace, honest gallop, tight bend into the straight — favours hold-up runners and closers who travel smoothly behind the speed, with Remi Mae and Just Queen High best placed to exploit tired leaders late, provided they can find clear running on the home turn.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Closers Strike
54% probability
If Zoustar Dreams and Got The Booty burn each other up setting a strong early tempo and the prominent trio cannot all get cover.
The two leaders press on briskly through the first three furlongs, creating a strong gallop that strings the field out and leaves the pace-setters vulnerable in the final furlong; hold-up horses who have been able to travel smoothly behind the speed then pick up the pieces on the run to the line.
Remi MaeJust Queen HighAmelia's JoyEgotistical
B
Lead Pair Dominate Wire-to-Wire
23% probability
If the early pace settles rather than burns and one of the two front-runners establishes a comfortable lead without expending excess energy.
Zoustar Dreams or Got The Booty controls proceedings from the front without being truly pressured in the middle section, conserving enough for the final furlong; prominent runners cannot close the gap given the Standard To Slow surface adding just enough cut to reward a relaxed front-runner.
Zoustar DreamsGot The BootyAmelia's JoyStartled Lady
C
Prominent Types Take Advantage
15% probability
If the leaders race each other into the ground early and the hold-up horses fail to find a clear run on the home turn, leaving prominent types to capitalise from just off the pace.
Amelia's Joy or Egotistical settle in the slipstream of the leaders through the first half, switch off the pace smoothly and have a decisive positional advantage over the hold-up horses when the front pair tire; the Standard To Slow surface limits the ability of horses coming from the back to make up ground in the final furlong.
Amelia's JoyEgotisticalStartled LadyGot The Booty
D
Traffic Chaos, Outsider Strikes
8% probability
If the field bunches significantly on the home turn, causing interference that disrupts the fancied hold-up runners and creates a chaotic final furlong.
Remi Mae or Just Queen High are hampered or must switch wide, nullifying their late-run advantage and handing the race to a horse that avoids trouble cleanly; Startled Lady, who won over this course-and-distance configuration, benefits from her tactical versatility if she secures a clear passage.
Startled LadyOverbudgetJust Queen HighRemi Mae
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Zoustar Dreams and Got The Booty both want to lead — watch the first furlong for a fierce duel that could burn them both out and set up the race for hold-up horses.
WATCH
Got The Booty returns after 79 days and must fight for the lead immediately; monitor her in the parade ring for signs of peak condition before committing to her front-running claims.
WATCH
Overbudget is a natural prominent-style runner but has nowhere natural to go in this pace-rich field — watch to see if Mason Paetel (3) drops her in early or is forced wide, as either scenario compounds her chance.
NOTE
Remi Mae (Oisin Murphy) will be delivered late off the home turn — watch her for clear-run issues on the bend, as Kempton's tight configuration can trap hold-up horses if the field fans wide.
NOTE
Egotistical's recent second over this exact 6f AW course-and-distance for Roger Varian (5/16 14-day) makes her a significant one to monitor as a course specialist with proven Standard-going form.
Lead contested: Hardy's Hero v Manly FireballHISTORIC
How it ran
Aigeas and Blakefell led; the map had Hardy's Hero and Manly Fireball in front.
Aigeas won at 34.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Hardy's HeroManly Fireball
Prominent · 3
Sierra SandsShaman ChampionRaggaas
Midfield · 2
Comic HeroBlakefell
Hold Up · 1
Aigeas
Hardy's Hero and Manly Fireball are confirmed front-runners who will contest the lead from the gates, creating a genuinely contested early gallop over this 7f Kempton AW trip on a Standard to Slow surface. Hardy's Hero has the more consistent profile at this trip and is likely to assert for the early rail position, with Manly Fireball pressing hard to his outside — the duel between them should generate an honest, pressured pace that stretches the field through the first three furlongs. Sierra Sands and Raggaas will push to be prominent just behind the speed, potentially crowding the front-running space and adding to early pressure. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure a natural position — Comic Hero and Blakefell are genuine prominent horses who will be shuffled back into midfield against their instincts, making the race harder to read from those positions; Hardy's Hero and Manly Fireball are the horses most likely to actually control the early race. With a contested lead and honest fractions on a surface that rewards those who travel smoothly into the race without expending energy in positional battles, this race shape most clearly favours prominent, forwardly-placed horses just off the speed who can draft into a pressured pace and pick off tiring leaders in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Prominent Strikes
54% probability
If Hardy's Hero and Manly Fireball fight for the lead and soften each other up, allowing a horse settled just off the pace to pounce.
The two front-runners trade blows throughout, burning each other's reserves and leaving the race wide open in the final two furlongs for a prominent passenger to power through; Standard to Slow going rewards those who conserve energy early and finish strongly rather than those who expend it fighting for position.
Sierra SandsRaggaasShaman ChampionHardy's Hero
B
Front-Runner Outstays Field
22% probability
If one of the front-runners, most likely Hardy's Hero, controls the tempo and gets a soft lead without being seriously pressured.
Hardy's Hero has repeatedly placed at 7f at this level and a race where the duel for the lead dissolves early — perhaps Manly Fireball being outpaced off the gate — could allow him to dictate and build an unassailable advantage; Cieren Fallon's intelligent front-running record gives this extra credibility.
Hardy's HeroManly FireballSierra SandsRaggaas
C
Midfield Finisher Swoops Late
15% probability
If the early pace is truly fierce and both front-runners wilt simultaneously, opening ground for a hold-up or redistributed prominent runner to finish through.
Aigeas is the natural hold-up horse in the race and has won over 6f on Standard going before, suggesting a strong late kick is possible if the tempo creates enough of a gap; Comic Hero also has the engine to finish through beaten horses though its redistribution to midfield means it is racing against its natural instincts and may not get a clean run.
AigeasComic HeroBlakefellShaman Champion
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos Finish
9% probability
If Manly Fireball's presence disrupts Hardy's Hero's rhythm so severely that the race fragments into a chaotic finish with no one able to sustain a run.
In a messy, stop-start 7f on a slower-than-advertised surface, fitness and adaptability become decisive and Blakefell — despite being mapped out of natural position — has course form and recently ran just 9 days ago suggesting peak fitness; Raggaas stepping back from middle-distance trips could find the compressed 7f finish playing to its advantage.
BlakefellRaggaasComic HeroAigeas
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hardy's Hero vs Manly Fireball — watch the first furlong for which front-runner asserts; if Hardy's Hero gets a clean jump and Manly Fireball is slow away, the leader scenario shifts from 22% to potentially race-decisive.
WATCH
Comic Hero's draw and early traffic — Oisin Murphy will need to find a gap from an uncomfortable position for a horse that wants to be prominent; watch whether he tries to push forward early or accepts midfield, as either choice carries risk.
WATCH
Blakefell's run style vs position — if Silvestre De Sousa chases position aggressively, it signals the horse is being forced to race against its map and could leave it weakened in the straight; a quiet, accepting start from Blakefell is the trigger for its late-race relevance.
NOTE
Sierra Sands freshness — 32 days off but Dunlop is in form and the 7f trip is proven; watch market moves near post time as a well-supported Sierra Sands would validate the prominent-off-the-pace narrative as the dominant scenario.
NOTE
Going surface creep — the going report shows Standard to Slow across all 7f races tonight, and if the surface is riding slower than headline Standard, hold-up horses like Aigeas gain marginal extra time to close, slightly elevating Scenario C probability in-running.
8:30 — Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier)
1m3f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners
Pershalla likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Madjid led; the map had Pershalla in front.
Joseph won at 6.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Pershalla
Prominent · 1
Rogue Desire
Midfield · 2
ExtraterrestrialThatcham
Hold Up · 2
MadjidJoseph
Pershalla is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pace rivals to contest the lead, Cieren Fallon should be able to dictate a controlled, unhurried gallop around the Kempton polytrack over this 1m3f trip. The going report across all races on the card is Standard To Slow — marginally softer than the headline Standard — which will blunt raw speed and reward stamina-laden hold-up horses who can absorb a steadily-run contest before producing their finish. Extraterrestrial and Thatcham are genuine hold-up types redistributed into the midfield map because the rear of the field is over-subscribed; neither is likely to be as far back as their natural style demands, and the field holds more true closers than the map can honestly place at the rear. With Pershalla controlling from the front at a sustainable clip and a cluster of hold-up horses forced slightly closer than ideal, this race shape most favours a horse who can travel prominently or in close mid-division and then sustain a strong run through the final two furlongs — the profile that benefits is the hold-up/midfield horse with proven stamina at this trip and positive recent form.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pershalla Dictates, Hold-Ups Chase
68% probability
If Pershalla leads unchallenged at a steady-to-fair tempo and the hold-up horses must produce their runs from midfield rather than a true last position.
Pershalla sets a comfortable, controlled pace and the hold-up types — forced up closer than they'd like — have to use more energy in the middle of the race to maintain position, rewarding any horse that can travel smoothly in Pershalla's slipstream and quicken from a handy berth in the final quarter-mile. Joseph and Madjid, with genuine hold-up form and stamina over 10-12f on Standard surfaces, are the profiles best equipped to pick off a tiring front-runner in this shape.
JosephMadjidPershallaExtraterrestrial
B
Pace Collapses, Front Two Hold On
16% probability
If the tempo is genuinely slow throughout and Pershalla, or any horse that travels prominently, simply outstays the field on the softer-than-ideal surface.
A crawling gallop over 1m3f on a Standard To Slow surface can produce a muddling finish where those who conserve energy near the front outkick the hold-up horses who misjudge the pace; Pershalla and Rogue Desire, both suited to making their effort from a prominent berth, benefit most if no one gives chase until it is too late.
PershallaRogue DesireJosephExtraterrestrial
C
Late Surge From True Closers
10% probability
If the pace is honest enough to string the field out and genuine hold-up types can find clear running in the straight to deliver a sustained late challenge.
Madjid has won over 10f and 12f on Standard going and arrives fresh off a 7-day turnaround in form; Joseph has a recent win at 10f on Standard and both carry enough stamina to finish powerfully if the race is truly run. However, this scenario is partially undermined because several tagged hold-up types are not operating from their true position, so the probability of a textbook late-finishing shape is reduced.
MadjidJosephExtraterrestrialThatcham
D
Midfield Grinders Take Over
6% probability
If the race fragments into a ragged, stop-start contest where redistributed horses find gaps mid-race and grind their rivals down through stamina rather than any clean tactical move.
Extraterrestrial has placed twice on Standard surfaces over 10-11f and Thatcham arrives lightly raced but with limited evidence at this trip and distance; both are racing out of their natural role in this shape, lowering the probability materially, but an unusually messy race could allow either to plug on through a tiring field.
ExtraterrestrialThatchamRogue DesireMadjid
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Pershalla is allowed a completely uncontested lead from stall to home turn — if Cieren Fallon can find an unharrassed rhythm, the front-running scenario lengthens every hold-up horse's task markedly.
WATCH
Joseph's headgear (p) is worth monitoring in the paddock and in the early stages; if he settles well for David Egan and tracks Pershalla from second or third, he is ideally positioned for the pace shape this race is likely to produce.
WATCH
Madjid's 7-day turnaround is the shortest recovery in the field — if Lewis Edmunds is instructed to drop him out and produce a late run, note whether there is enough pace ahead to run on to, given how moderate the tempo may be.
NOTE
Extraterrestrial's 73-day absence combined with her redistribution flag means Billy Loughnane may need to ride against her natural instincts to find a workable position — monitor whether she settles in mid-division or drops out wide and late, as the latter would make her task near-impossible.
NOTE
The Standard To Slow going reading on the 1m3f trip (confirmed by the 7:00 race going report) is softer than the headline surface suggests — horses with proven stamina credentials on similar AW going should be prioritised over those whose best form came on Good turf.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.