5:12 — Set Your Limits With Unibet Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)
6f · Standard · NOV · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:45 — Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap
7f · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners
Ethereal Charm to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Fullstop led; the map had Ethereal Charm in front.
Wild Thoughts won at 1.29 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ethereal Charm
Prominent · 2
RoccobearFullstop
Midfield · 7
That's EnoughSup Of RedKingofthecarnivalPersonal PrideBlue CelestialSuperstormSummer Oasis
Hold Up · 4
Wild ThoughtsSlack BobHello HumphreyStation Bar
Ethereal Charm is the only confirmed front-runner and will dictate from the gate, likely setting a sustainable pace without pressure from fellow pace-setters. Roccobear and Fullstop may track prominently but neither is aggressive enough to challenge the lead early. This creates a measured gallop that will suit patient hold-up horses who can finish strongly, rather than those needing a strong pace to maximize their effectiveness. The lack of pace pressure strongly favors closers and hold-up horses who can unleash late kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Suits Closers
65% probability
If Ethereal Charm sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches entering the straight
The patient hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks in the final two furlongs. Wild Thoughts and Slack Bob benefit most from this tactical scenario given their proven closing ability.
Wild ThoughtsSlack BobKingofthecarnivalPersonal Pride
B
Prominent Trackers Capitalize
20% probability
If Roccobear and Fullstop apply more pressure to the leader than expected
This creates a more honest pace that prevents the closers from winding up their trademark finishes. The horses positioned prominently throughout get first run and hold off the late challengers.
RoccobearStation BarFullstopSuperstorm
C
Front Runner Dominates
10% probability
If Ethereal Charm gets easy splits and kicks clear turning for home
The field gets caught napping by the uncontested leader who builds an unassailable advantage. Those tracking closest have the best chance to minimize the damage but cannot reel in the winner.
Ethereal CharmRoccobearStation BarFullstop
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If the field goes extremely slowly through halfway with no one willing to go forward
This creates a sprint finish where luck in running and position become paramount over genuine ability. The most tactical jockeys on horses with any turn of foot benefit from the lottery-like finish.
Wild Thoughts on quick 2-day turnaround after easy Lingfield win could be vulnerable to the step up in class
WATCH
Ethereal Charm is the key pace angle - if she settles better after her long break the race dynamics change completely
NOTE
Station Bar and Kingofthecarnival both went too keenly in their last runs which could see them overrace again
WATCH
That's Enough and Summer Oasis are both making handicap debuts after long breaks with modest recent form
NOTE
Personal Pride has been off 136 days but the Simcock-Spencer combination often strikes with returning horses
6:15 — Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
7f · Standard · NOV · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:45 — Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
1m · Standard · CLS4 · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:15 — Get Best Odds Guaranteed At Unibet Handicap
1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners
Tactical Plan likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sixfiveseven led; the map had Tactical Plan in front.
Sea Founder won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Tactical Plan
Prominent · 2
Jazzy BabyI Am Me
Midfield · 5
Ash WednesdaySixfivesevenBerry CleverBilly MillEmery Down
Hold Up · 3
Sea FounderCelestias CometAtlantis Blue
Tactical Plan is the only confirmed front runner and will set a sustainable pace from the break with no early pressure expected. The prominent runners Jazzy Baby and I Am Me will track close behind, but this isn't a field loaded with early pace, leaving the numerous hold-up horses like Sea Founder, Ash Wednesday, and Berry Clever relying on the race developing into a sprint finish. With one uncontested leader and a field dominated by hold-up types, this tactical setup strongly favours the early positioned horses who can avoid traffic and secure good racing room.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Wins
45% probability
If Tactical Plan gets an easy lead and stays the mile
The lack of early pressure allows him to dictate fractions and kick clear when it matters, while the hold-up brigade gets bunched up behind. This scenario rewards the horse with the tactical advantage of controlling the race.
Tactical PlanJazzy BabyI Am MeBerry Clever
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If the prominent runners can secure ideal stalking positions
Jazzy Baby or I Am Me can track the leader perfectly and have enough in reserve to challenge, benefiting from good early positioning without doing the donkey work. The hold-up horses face a wall of horses ahead of them.
I Am MeJazzy BabyTactical PlanSea Founder
C
Hold-Up Horse Charges
20% probability
If the early pace becomes truly pedestrian and the field compacts
Sea Founder or Berry Clever can unleash their finishing kicks in a bunched finish where class tells. Their superior jockeys (Murphy/Ghiani) can find gaps that others cannot.
Sea FounderBerry CleverAsh WednesdayBilly Mill
D
Surprise Package Emerges
5% probability
If the race falls apart tactically with stop-start fractions
An unfancied hold-up horse like Sixfiveseven returning from a long break finds others have gone too fast too early. The peculiar pace plays into the hands of a fresh horse with something to prove.
Tactical Plan could steal this if he gets the expected soft lead and none of the hold-up horses can lay up close enough
WATCH
Watch for traffic problems in the home straight with so many hold-up horses needing room at the same time
NOTE
I Am Me returning after 64 days but won last time here and gets prominent position behind the leader
WATCH
Oisin Murphy on Sea Founder gives him the best pilot among the hold-up horses but he still needs serious pace collapse
NOTE
Berry Clever has won three times at Kempton but all his wins came from getting strong early pace to chase
7:45 — Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Fillies' Handicap
6f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners
Perfect Location likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Tenzi led; the map had Perfect Location in front.
Leonie won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Perfect Location
Prominent · 1
Bessie Wallis
Midfield · 2
TenziPortacloy
Hold Up · 2
Space BearLeonie
Perfect Location will be the lone leader early with Tenzi, Bessie Wallis and Portacloy settling just behind in the prominent positions. Space Bear and Leonie will track from midfield/rear given their hold-up styles. With only one confirmed front runner, Perfect Location can dictate a steady tempo without early pressure, creating a sustainable gallop that builds gradually. This tactical setup strongly favours the prominent runners who can track the leader and pounce, while hold-up horses may struggle to pick up the pieces in a small field where the pace could become too honest.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Prevail
55% probability
If Perfect Location sets steady fractions without early pressure
The prominent quartet of Tenzi, Bessie Wallis and Portacloy can stalk comfortably before launching their challenges in the final two furlongs. Space Bear's penalty-carrying recent winner profile makes her vulnerable if the pace doesn't collapse.
Space BearTenziPerfect LocationPortacloy
B
Leader Wires Field
25% probability
If Perfect Location's tongue tie addition sparks improvement and sustainable fractions
The returning filly can take advantage of her uncontested lead, with the prominent runners unable to reel her in despite tracking closely. Her fair juvenile form and 22-day break suggest untapped potential.
Perfect LocationSpace BearTenziLeonie
C
Hold-Up Kick Succeeds
12% probability
If the prominent pack goes too hard chasing Perfect Location
Space Bear and Leonie benefit from a strong pace collapse, with their closing kicks proving decisive in the final furlong. The recent Yarmouth winner's class tells despite the 6lb penalty.
Space BearLeoniePerfect LocationTenzi
D
Surprise Long Shot
8% probability
If the returning Bessie Wallis or Portacloy find dramatic improvement
Either long-absent runner benefits from their prominent position while the market leaders underperform. Their 150+ day breaks could have freshened them significantly.
Bessie WallisPortacloySpace BearPerfect Location
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Perfect Location could steal this if her tongue tie addition sparks improvement and she gets uncontested fractions
WATCH
Space Bear's 6lb penalty and hold-up style may prove costly if the pace doesn't develop strongly enough
NOTE
Leonie's booking of Oisin Murphy suggests connections expect improvement from her debut campaign form
WATCH
Both Bessie Wallis and Portacloy return from lengthy absences without recent evidence of readiness
8:15 — Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap
1m4f · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners
Port Darwin to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Blackisthenewblack led; the map had Port Darwin in front.
Blackisthenewblack won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Port Darwin
Prominent · 1
Wedonttellthetruth
Midfield · 6
RajbelloSaxophonicCarawayCospicuaPrivate ProjectMake It Up
Hold Up · 3
BlackisthenewblackGoldfinderTonyfromhr
Port Darwin will take this field along as the sole confirmed front runner, with Wedonttellthetruth likely to settle prominently in second. With minimal early pressure, Port Darwin can dictate a moderate gallop over the first mile before the pace lifts entering the home straight. The single leader setup creates a tactical race where positioning becomes crucial, as nine hold-up horses will need clear runs in the final 3f. This pace shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce sustained finishes, as they'll get the perfect setup behind an uncontested leader.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If Port Darwin sets steady fractions and the pace quickens from 3f out
The moderate early gallop perfectly sets up the closers who can unleash their finishing kicks. Cospicua and Blackisthenewblack benefit most from their proven C&D form and strong finishing styles.
CospicuaBlackisthenewblackSaxophonicGoldfinder
B
Front Pair Hold On
20% probability
If Port Darwin and Wedonttellthetruth establish a decisive advantage through honest fractions
The leaders get first run on the field and hold off the late charge with their stamina reserves. Port Darwin's front-running style and Wedonttellthetruth's prominent tactics prove decisive.
Port DarwinWedonttellthetruthRajbelloCospicua
C
Traffic Chaos Benefits
10% probability
If the large field of hold-up horses creates interference in the straight
Several fancied runners get blocked while those drawn better or positioned luckily exploit clear passages. The winners emerge from horses with tactical pace or those drawn wide.
GoldfinderSaxophonicMake It UpTonyfromhr
D
Pace Collapse Scenario
5% probability
If Port Darwin goes too slow early then stops quickly
The race becomes a messy sprint where horses with any tactical speed can capitalize. Those able to position closer than usual or quicken earliest benefit from the crawling pace.
RajbelloMake It UpTonyfromhrGoldfinder
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Port Darwin must be monitored early - if he goes too slowly the race becomes tactical, if too fast he'll stop
WATCH
Watch Cospicua's position turning for home as his strong late kick needs a clear run to be effective
WATCH
Wedonttellthetruth's cheekpieces have transformed his form since stepping up to 1m4f in handicaps
NOTE
Saxophonic switching trainers after 85 days off - market support would indicate fitness despite the layoff
NOTE
The draw and early positioning of the nine hold-up horses will be crucial given the likely traffic issues
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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