Archive›Kempton (AW) · 4 May 2026

Kempton (AW)

4 May 2026 · 8 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

2:00 — Shooting Star EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Standard · NOV · 9 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:35 — McCaffertys Bars Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div I)

6f · Standard · CLS4 · 11 runners

Speculative to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Nzuri and Tyrant Gg led; the map had Speculative in front.

Thunder Call won at 2.20 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Speculative

Prominent · 1

Ruiz

Midfield · 6

Tyrant GgThat's RandomImagine ThatDistillationNzuriWhitesnake

Hold Up · 3

Noble VowThunder CallBundok

Speculative is the only confirmed front runner and will likely get an uncontested lead in this 11-runner maiden field. With most runners preferring to hold up including Noble Vow, Thunder Call, and the multiple hold-up types, Speculative can dictate terms without pressure through steady fractions. The lack of pace pressure early will create a tactical race where the winner emerges from the pack of hold-up horses who must time their runs perfectly. This race shape clearly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Speculative gets soft fractions on the lead without early pressure

The Tom Dascombe runner can control the tempo and kick clear when the field comes under pressure, making the hold-up horses' task much harder. Front runners historically thrive in these tactical maidens when allowed to dictate.

SpeculativeRuizNoble VowThunder Call

Hold-Up Horses Swamp Leader

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and allows closers perfect conditions

The superior class of Noble Vow and Thunder Call tells as they get ideal circumstances to unleash finishing kicks. Multiple hold-up types benefit from the strong pace scenario this creates.

Noble VowThunder CallBundokThat's Random

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Ruiz can settle behind Speculative without pulling too hard

The 120-rated Ruiz gets the perfect trip tracking the leader before challenging, avoiding both pace pressure and traffic problems. His class edge shows when positioned ideally.

RuizNoble VowSpeculativeThunder Call

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Speculative fails to handle the return from 284 days absence

The field bunches completely in the straight creating a cavalry charge finish where any horse can win. Fitness and traffic luck become decisive factors over class or tactics.

Thunder CallTyrant GgThat's RandomBundok

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Speculative must handle 284-day absence as the only pace angle - if unfit the race becomes chaotic

WATCH

Noble Vow pulled hard at Bath last time so watch for settling early to utilize his superior form

WATCH

Traffic problems inevitable with 9+ hold-up horses in 11-runner field - draw and early position crucial

NOTE

Tyrant Gg market moves significant given expensive purchase and debut for shrewd Botti yard

NOTE

Ruiz fitness after 241 days off - if sharp could utilize class advantage from prominent position

3:10 — McCaffertys Bars Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div II)

6f · Standard · CLS4 · 10 runners

Lesley Buckley to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sargent Dennis led; the map had Lesley Buckley in front.

Marengo Storm won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lesley Buckley

Prominent · 2

TrinculoSargent Dennis

Midfield · 4

ElmfieldWayward QueenSquashy BerryMarengo Storm

Hold Up · 3

Tie FighterGris De ChineKiani King

Lesley Buckley will lead this field as the sole confirmed front runner, but her tendency to fade in the finish means she's unlikely to sustain gallop pressure if challenged. The moderate early pace will allow prominent runners like Trinculo and Sargent Dennis to sit handy without expending energy, while the hold-up horses including Tie Fighter, Marengo Storm, and Kiani King will have time to organize from the back. With Standard to Slow conditions helping stamina types and no genuine pace pressure early, this race strongly favors hold-up horses who can finish through tired legs in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

65% probability

If Lesley Buckley sets a steady tempo without early pressure from prominent runners.

The moderate gallop allows closers to get organized and finish strongly through tiring leaders. Tie Fighter, Marengo Storm, and Kiani King benefit most from this tactical setup.

Tie FighterMarengo StormKiani KingGris De Chine

Prominent runners capitalize

22% probability

If Trinculo or Sargent Dennis press Lesley Buckley early and maintain their position.

The increased tempo stretches the field and prevents hold-up horses from mounting their usual finish. The prominently-raced horses can sustain their effort better than the fading leader.

Sargent DennisTrinculoGris De ChineElmfield

Pace collapses completely

8% probability

If Lesley Buckley leads unchallenged at crawling fractions through halfway.

The race becomes a sprint finish where raw speed trumps stamina, potentially suiting any horse with tactical speed. Even longshots get a chance in the dash to the line.

ElmfieldWayward QueenMarengo StormSargent Dennis

Front runner sustains

5% probability

If Lesley Buckley finds improved stamina and the pace stays moderate throughout.

The leader gets an uncontested lead and holds on as followers fail to reel her in. This outcome requires significant improvement from a horse with finishing concerns.

Lesley BuckleySargent DennisTrinculoTie Fighter

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lesley Buckley if she shows early zip and gets away with soft fractions, could steal this despite finishing concerns

WATCH

Tie Fighter's market support given his 195-day absence and need for the race to set up with moderate pace

NOTE

Elmfield's betting patterns as the only unknown quantity with potential stable confidence indicators

WATCH

Early pace development between Lesley Buckley and any prominent runners challenging her lead

NOTE

Sargent Dennis carrying the 5lb claiming allowance while showing consistent recent form at the trip

3:45 — White Lodge Fillies' Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Jowalla to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hamaleel and Mayfair Market and Jowalla led, as the map showed.

Court Of Stars won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jowalla

Prominent · 2

EspanitaHamaleel

Midfield · 2

Court Of StarsFeisty Minx

Hold Up · 2

SahanaMayfair Market

Jowalla will take the field along as the sole confirmed front runner, with Espanita and Hamaleel settling in prominent positions behind the leader. With only one horse committed to making the pace, Jowalla can dictate comfortable fractions without early pressure, likely creating a tactical affair rather than a true test of stamina. The standard-to-slow going conditions will further reduce the likelihood of a strong gallop, allowing hold-up horses like Sahana, Court Of Stars, Mayfair Market and Feisty Minx to position themselves for late challenges. This race shape clearly favours closers and hold-up horses who can exploit the sustainable pace and time their runs perfectly in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If Jowalla sets comfortable fractions without pressure from the prominent runners

The pace becomes too slow for the early positioned horses to sustain their kicks, allowing the patient hold-up horses to unleash superior finishing speed in the final two furlongs. Sahana and Court Of Stars benefit most from this tactical setup with their proven ability to quicken from off the pace.

SahanaCourt Of StarsMayfair MarketFeisty Minx

Prominent runners strike

25% probability

If Espanita or Hamaleel apply early pressure to Jowalla creating honest fractions

The increased pace stretches the field and prevents the hold-up horses from getting into contention, with the prominent runners having enough left to hold off late challenges. Espanita's recent form and Hamaleel's class edge come to the fore in this scenario.

EspanitaHamaleelJowallaSahana

Jowalla wire-to-wire

12% probability

If the pace collapses completely with no pressure applied to the leader

Jowalla gets such an easy lead that even the hold-up horses cannot make up the ground, with the front runner having enough left to resist all challenges despite the slow overall time. The leader's tactical advantage proves decisive in a sprint finish.

JowallaEspanitaHamaleelSahana

Pace collapse muddle

8% probability

If the early fractions are so slow that the entire field remains bunched turning for home

The race becomes a lottery with positioning and traffic crucial, potentially suiting any horse that gets a clear run at the right moment. Form and class become secondary to in-running luck and jockey skill.

Court Of StarsFeisty MinxMayfair MarketSahana

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jowalla must be monitored early to see if the pace is genuine or if comfortable fractions will set up the race for closers.

WATCH

Mayfair Market and Court Of Stars are both returning from long breaks so watch for market moves indicating fitness levels.

NOTE

Espanita and Hamaleel's positioning behind Jowalla will determine if any early pressure is applied to test the leader's stamina.

WATCH

Sahana carries top weight at 142lbs which could prove decisive if the race becomes competitive in the closing stages.

NOTE

The standard-to-slow going may favour horses with proven form in these conditions over those stepping back from faster surfaces.

4:20 — Brooke Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners

Bubbles Wonky to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Dark Baron led; the map had Bubbles Wonky in front.

Valentine Boy won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bubbles Wonky

Prominent · 1

Valentine Boy

Midfield · 4

Man Of DesertGrey SoulCephalusThe Dark Baron

Hold Up · 2

InfluentialDannick

Bubbles Wonky is the sole confirmed leader and will dictate terms from the front without pressure, setting a sustainable gallop through the early stages. Valentine Boy may provide some early company in a prominent position, but the small field and lack of other pace angles means Bubbles Wonky controls the tempo completely. This creates a tactical race where the pace will likely be steady to moderate, building from halfway as the hold-up horses begin their challenge. The race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid traffic problems, as the lack of early pace will make it difficult for hold-up horses to close from the back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front runner dominates

45% probability

If Bubbles Wonky gets an uncontested lead and quickens turning for home

The lack of early pressure allows the leader to conserve energy before kicking clear, while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from the back of the small field. This tactical advantage proves decisive in a steadily-run race.

Bubbles WonkyValentine BoyThe Dark BaronGrey Soul

Hold-up horse strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and one hold-up runner gets a perfect trip

The crawling early gallop sets up a sprint finish where class and finishing kick matter most, allowing a hold-up horse with tactical speed to sweep past the tiring leaders. Grey Soul's course win gives him the edge in this scenario.

Grey SoulThe Dark BaronCephalusInfluential

Prominent tracker pounces

15% probability

If Valentine Boy tracks Bubbles Wonky closely and outfinishes the leader in the final furlong

The prominent horse gets the perfect stalking trip behind the uncontested leader, then uses superior finishing speed when it matters. Valentine Boy's recent course win and Jack Dace's claiming allowance become crucial factors.

Valentine BoyBubbles WonkyGrey SoulThe Dark Baron

Late pace collapse

10% probability

If the slow early pace completely nullifies the leaders' advantage and creates chaos

Both Bubbles Wonky and Valentine Boy tie up badly in the final furlong after dictating a pedestrian gallop, allowing a hold-up horse with the most natural speed to capitalize. This requires the pace to be exceptionally slow throughout.

InfluentialCephalusMan Of DesertDannick

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bubbles Wonky could steal a march if allowed to dictate completely unchallenged fractions through the first half-mile.

WATCH

Valentine Boy's early positioning will be crucial - if he sits too close to Bubbles Wonky he could compromise both their chances.

NOTE

Grey Soul's fitness after a 195-day layoff needs monitoring, though his course experience is a major positive.

WATCH

The slow early pace could turn this into a sprint finish where traffic problems become decisive in the small field.

NOTE

Man Of Desert represents the strongest jockey-trainer combination but his running style doesn't suit the likely race shape.

4:55 — Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)

1m3f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Somkiyr likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Caph Star and Somkiyr led, as the map showed.

Must Believe won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Somkiyr

Prominent · 3

Dancing TigerMust BelieveGenerous Support

Midfield · 3

Dust CoverBig Bear HugStar Time

Hold Up · 3

MasterinthewoodsCaph StarTortured Soul

Somkiyr stands alone as the confirmed front runner, likely to bowl along at a sustainable gallop without serious pressure from the early stages. Generous Support and Dancing Tiger may track closely in second and third, but both are more followers than genuine pace pressers. The lack of multiple speed horses means Somkiyr can dictate terms through steady fractions, setting up a tactical battle from the home turn. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can unleash late kicks, as the pedestrian early pace will leave plenty in reserve for the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Somkiyr Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Somkiyr gets an uncontested lead and maintains steady fractions

The pace-setter dictates throughout and the field bunches approaching the straight, creating a sprint finish that suits horses with tactical speed. Late runners get their chance but may find the winner has enough left in the tank.

SomkiyrDancing TigerDust CoverTortured Soul

Hold-Up Horse Surge

35% probability

If the early pace is genuinely slow and the field remains tightly packed turning in

The patient riders time their moves perfectly as the race becomes a pure staying test in the final three furlongs. Class and stamina separate the field rather than pure speed.

Dust CoverTortured SoulMust BelieveMasterinthewoods

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Dancing Tiger or Must Believe track the leader closely and kick approaching the furlong pole

The horses in prime stalking positions have the perfect trip, avoiding traffic while staying close enough to pounce. They get first run on the leader and hold off the late closers.

Dancing TigerMust BelieveGenerous SupportCaph Star

Chaos and Traffic

5% probability

If the field fans out wide or bunches dangerously in the home straight creating interference

Several runners get hampered or forced to switch, allowing an outsider with a clear passage to steal through. Form lines go out the window in a messy finish.

Big Bear HugStar TimeCaph StarMasterinthewoods

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Somkiyr has been off for 514 days which makes his fitness highly questionable despite tactical advantage

WATCH

Dancing Tiger and Must Believe could press forward more than expected and turn this into a stronger pace

WATCH

Traffic problems are likely in the home straight with multiple hold-up horses converging simultaneously

NOTE

Star Time and Masterinthewoods are both returning from very long breaks and their fitness is unknown

NOTE

The claimer Jack Dace on Must Believe could prove costly in a tactical finish if multiple horses converge

5:30 — Barrie Wells Trust Box4Kids Fillies' Handicap (GBBplus Race)

1m4f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Chilli Queen to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ma Belle Artiste led; the map had Chilli Queen in front.

Dojin won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Chilli Queen

Prominent · 1

Ma Belle Artiste

Midfield · 3

CaramayTypical WomanOpera Wave

Hold Up · 2

Club ClassDojin

Chilli Queen will establish the early lead from the gates and face minimal pressure through the initial stages with no other natural front-runners in this field. The lone pace-setter should dictate comfortable fractions through the first mile, allowing her to conserve energy for the final quarter-mile. With five hold-up horses (Club Class, Dojin, Typical Woman, Caramay, Opera Wave) and only Ma Belle Artiste showing prominent tendencies, the pace will be moderate and sustainable. This race shape strongly favours the front-runner and prominent runners who can track the pace closely, as the hold-up brigade will face a difficult task making up significant ground against horses with positional advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Chilli Queen Controls Gate

55% probability

If Chilli Queen breaks cleanly and establishes her lead without early interference

She dictates comfortable fractions and kicks clear turning for home while the hold-up horses struggle to bridge the gap. Ma Belle Artiste tracking in second can emerge as the main threat but may lack the acceleration to reel in the leader.

Chilli QueenMa Belle ArtisteClub ClassDojin

Prominent Challenge Succeeds

25% probability

If Ma Belle Artiste tracks Chilli Queen closely and times her challenge perfectly

The 6-year-old can utilize her race fitness advantage after a long break to mount a sustained challenge, potentially wearing down the front-runner in the final furlong. This benefits the two horses with early position.

Ma Belle ArtisteChilli QueenCaramayClub Class

Hold-Up Horse Charges Late

12% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and one of the closers produces exceptional acceleration

Club Class or Dojin could capitalize on their recent good form to sweep past tiring leaders, but they need everything to fall perfectly. The sustained nature of 1m4f makes this scenario less likely against an uncontested leader.

Club ClassDojinChilli QueenOpera Wave

Pace Collapse Surprise

8% probability

If Chilli Queen fails to lead cleanly or faces unexpected early pressure from multiple horses

The race becomes messy with no clear pace-setter, potentially setting up a sprint finish that could favor any horse with tactical speed. This chaos scenario opens the door for an outsider.

Opera WaveCaramayTypical WomanMa Belle Artiste

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Chilli Queen's jumping and early position - if she misses the break or gets headed early, the entire race dynamic changes

WATCH

Ma Belle Artiste's fitness after 506 days off - any signs of rustiness in the preliminaries could eliminate the main pace rival

NOTE

The hold-up horses' positioning through the first half-mile - bunching at the back could create traffic problems

WATCH

Weather conditions affecting the all-weather surface - any deterioration could impact the front-runner's stamina reserves

NOTE

Jockey tactics on Club Class and Dojin - whether they attempt to sit closer than usual given the pace scenario

6:00 — Wimbledon Greyhound Welfare Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)

2m · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners

Rogue Empire to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rogue Empire led, as the map showed.

Gooloogong won at 2.20 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rogue Empire

Prominent · 2

Port Of EntryCapone

Midfield · 3

Now The EagleHaalandKarthon

Hold Up · 2

GooloogongCrackergee

Rogue Empire is the only confirmed front runner and will face no early pressure from this field of predominantly hold-up horses. Port Of Entry may track prominently but won't challenge for the lead, leaving Rogue Empire to dictate a comfortable gallop through the early stages. The lack of pace pressure means the tempo will be steady rather than searching, with the hold-up brigade including Haaland, Gooloogong, Crackergee, and Karthon all needing to make their moves from off the pace. This tactical setup clearly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid traffic problems and capitalize on the uncontested lead.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Rogue Empire gets an easy lead and maintains stamina over 2m

The lack of early pace allows Rogue Empire to save energy and kick clear when challenged, while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the testing climb. Front runners with tactical advantage prosper when not pressured early.

Rogue EmpirePort Of EntryNow The EagleGooloogong

Hold-Up Horse Times Run

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and one hold-up horse produces superior finishing kick

The pedestrian gallop suits a classy stayer who can unleash a devastating late surge up the straight. Quality hold-up horses with recent form benefit from the setup.

GooloogongCrackergeeKarthonHaaland

Pace Collapse Helps Improver

15% probability

If Rogue Empire stops quickly and the race becomes a sprint finish

The slow pace negates stamina advantages and turns it into a dash, favoring horses with recent winning form or improvement. Progressive types capitalize on the tactical mess.

Now The EagleKarthonCrackergeeHaaland

Prominent Tracker Prevails

10% probability

If Port Of Entry gets the perfect trip tracking the leader

Following Rogue Empire gives Port Of Entry first run on the field while avoiding the traffic problems facing the hold-up horses. Prominent racers benefit from clear sailing.

Port Of EntryCaponeRogue EmpireNow The Eagle

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Rogue Empire's jumping from the stalls as the only front runner must secure clear early lead

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems affecting Gooloogong and other hold-up horses if pace stays slow throughout

WATCH

Watch Crackergee's position turning for home as hold-up horses need to be close enough to strike

NOTE

Watch Port Of Entry's positioning early to see if tracking the leader or dropping back further

NOTE

Watch for any late pace injection from Now The Eagle given recent course winning form

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 4 May 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →