Archive›Kempton (AW) · 6 April 2026

Kempton (AW)

6 April 2026 · 8 races

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1:45 — Virgin Bet Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Standard · NOV · 12 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:20 — Virgin Bet Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

1m · Standard · NOV · 10 runners

Lead contested: Guesstimate v Blue SamunaFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Guesstimate led, as the map showed.

Freda won at 23.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

GuesstimateBlue Samuna

Prominent · 3

FredaTamzanIrish Incentive

Midfield · 2

Midnight MediaMiss Mambo

Hold Up · 3

Eastern VeilDoodlingBarbuda Bay

Guesstimate and Blue Samuna will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front runners likely to set an honest gallop over this mile trip. Freda, Tamzan, and Irish Incentive should press from prominent positions, creating a competitive mid-race tempo. The combination of two pace-setters and several prominent runners will establish a true test, preventing any tactical crawl. This race shape clearly favours horses that can sit handy and finish, as the genuine pace will set up perfectly for those tracking the leaders rather than those coming from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest Gallop Benefits Trackers

45% probability

If Guesstimate and Blue Samuna both show early speed and maintain the gallop to halfway

The sustained pace will stretch the field and favour those positioned third to sixth who can quicken off the honest tempo. Eastern Veil and Freda are perfectly placed to benefit from this tactical setup.

Eastern VeilFredaIrish IncentiveTamzan

Front Runner Dominates

30% probability

If Guesstimate gets an uncontested lead with Blue Samuna settling behind

The pace slackens mid-race allowing the leader to store energy for a sustained kick, while prominent runners get first run on any hold-up horses. Guesstimate's proven ability at the trip makes her hard to peg back.

GuesstimateTamzanFredaEastern Veil

Pace Collapse Sprint

15% probability

If both front runners go too fast early and tie up in the final two furlongs

The race becomes a sprint finish from the back as the early pace proves unsustainable on the slower ground conditions. Those held up longest will have the most energy for the closing stages.

DoodlingMidnight MediaMiss MamboBarbuda Bay

Prominent Surge

10% probability

If Freda or Irish Incentive take closer order early while the leaders duel

A three-way battle develops from the two-furlong pole with the prominent pair having tactical advantage over both the tiring leaders and back markers. Recent form and fitness gives them the edge in a driving finish.

Irish IncentiveFredaGuesstimateEastern Veil

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Guesstimate gets an uncontested lead as her proven course form makes her very dangerous

WATCH

Monitor Blue Samuna's early positioning as her inexperienced jockey may not handle pace pressure

NOTE

Eastern Veil's market move will indicate stable confidence after 163-day absence

WATCH

Freda needs to overcome tendency to find little off the bridle despite prominent position

NOTE

Midnight Media's improvement without headgear suggests she could outrun odds from the rear

2:55 — Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race)

1m2f · Standard · LST · 7 runners

Devil's Advocate likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Devil's Advocate led, as the map showed.

Gethin won at 2.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Devil's Advocate

Prominent · 2

GethinThunder Run

Midfield · 2

Muddy MooySavvy Victory

Hold Up · 2

Military AcademyPlage De Havre

Devil's Advocate will likely take the field along from the front with minimal pressure, as most rivals prefer to sit off the pace. Gethin, Thunder Run, and Muddy Mooy will track in prominent positions but none are natural pace-pressers at this trip. The pace will be sustainable rather than fierce, with the real action delayed until the home straight when the hold-up horses Military Academy, Savvy Victory, and Plage De Havre attempt their challenges. This measured tempo strongly favours horses who can travel well and produce a sustained finish, giving the edge to prominent racers and closers over pure front-runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

45% probability

If Devil's Advocate gets soft fractions and the closers leave it too late.

The Gosden runner controls from the front without serious pressure and kicks clear when challenged. His class advantage tells when rivals struggle to peg back his early advantage.

Devil's AdvocateGethinThunder RunMuddy Mooy

Closer's Paradise

30% probability

If the pace becomes crawling and turns into a sprint finish.

The lack of early pace sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses who can unleash superior finishing kicks. Military Academy and Plage De Havre benefit most from this tactical scenario.

Military AcademyPlage De HavreSavvy VictoryGethin

Prominent Pressure Pays

15% probability

If Gethin or Thunder Run decide to take the race to Devil's Advocate early.

The increased tempo exposes Devil's Advocate's stamina reserves and creates opportunities for horses tracking just behind. This scenario rewards those in the second rank who can quicken.

GethinMuddy MooyThunder RunMilitary Academy

Complete Tactical Muddle

10% probability

If multiple horses go forward creating a messy pace or if the favourite stops quickly.

The race fragments with uneven pace creating chaos that only the most adaptable horses can navigate. Savvy Victory's experience or Thunder Run's versatility could prove decisive.

Thunder RunSavvy VictoryMuddy MooyPlage De Havre

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Devil's Advocate may not handle the sustained tempo if challenged early, watch for signs of laboured breathing in the home straight.

WATCH

Thunder Run's jumping from the gates after his long break, any tardiness will compromise his prominent position.

WATCH

Military Academy's body language in the preliminaries will reveal if he's mentally sharp after his stable struggles.

NOTE

Gethin's early positioning with Rodriguez, if they go too keen it will compromise his finishing kick.

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile, anything faster than steady will play into the closers' hands significantly.

3:30 — Virgin Bet Handicap (GBBplus Race)

1m4f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Topteam v MarnierHISTORIC

How it ran

Topteam led, as the map showed.

Topteam won at 5.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

TopteamMarnier

Prominent · 3

IncensedSerenity BlueMidnight Rumble

Midfield · 1

Goblet Of Fire

Hold Up · 3

BahadurYouthful KingRogue Impact

Topteam and Marnier are the confirmed front runners who will lock horns from the gates, setting up an honest gallop over this 1m4f trip. Both have the natural speed to go forward, with Topteam particularly keen to lead and Marnier happy to press or share. This dual pace injection creates a strong tempo that will test their stamina reserves in the final two furlongs. The sustained gallop decisively favors hold-up horses who can benefit from the early pace and finish strongly.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses thrive

60% probability

If the early pace between Topteam and Marnier is honest as expected

The strong gallop plays perfectly into the hands of the closers who get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks. Bahadur and Goblet Of Fire are ideally positioned to capitalize with their proven hold-up tactics over this distance.

BahadurGoblet Of FireRogue ImpactYouthful King

Prominent tracker wins

25% probability

If one horse can sit handy behind the leaders without getting involved in the early battle

The tracker avoids the pace duel but stays close enough to strike when the leaders weaken. Incensed or Serenity Blue could benefit from this tactical position if they settle well early.

IncensedMidnight RumbleSerenity BlueRogue Impact

Front runner survives

12% probability

If either Topteam or Marnier can establish a clear lead without maximum pressure

The leader gets an easier time than expected and has enough left to hold off late challengers. Marnier's class edge gives him the better chance of the two pace-setters to last home.

MarnierTopteamIncensedMidnight Rumble

Midfield horse strikes

3% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

The race loses its shape and becomes anyone's guess with horses from all positions having chances. This scenario requires multiple pace miscalculations to materialize.

Serenity BlueYouthful KingMidnight RumbleRogue Impact

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Topteam and Marnier both going forward early - if they clash heads immediately, both could weaken dramatically in the straight

WATCH

Bahadur's jumping from the gates - he needs to settle in rear but can't afford to be too far back if the pace is moderate

NOTE

Incensed's breathing after her wind surgery - any labored breathing in the home straight indicates the operation hasn't worked

WATCH

Goblet Of Fire getting a clear run in the straight - Henderson's horse has the finishing kick but needs racing room

NOTE

The overall tempo in the first half-mile - if it's genuinely strong, the hold-up horses become very dangerous

4:05 — Virgin Bet A Good Bet Fillies' Handicap (London Sprint Series Qualifier)

6f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Musical Angel to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lady Roxby led; the map had Musical Angel in front.

Lady Mariko won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Musical Angel

Prominent · 1

Mercury Day

Midfield · 3

Lady MarikoAlpine GirlGogo Yubari

Hold Up · 2

Lady RoxbyFleetwater

Musical Angel will set the early fractions from the front with no obvious pace pressure in this small field of seven fillies. The lone confirmed leader should get comfortable sectionals through the first half-mile before the hold-up horses launch their challenges. With five of seven runners preferring to come from off the pace, Musical Angel's uncontested lead creates a tactical scenario that heavily favours front-runners and prominent racers who can track the pace closely. This race shape strongly benefits horses with early pace who can avoid the late traffic problems that will inevitably develop among the large hold-up contingent.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

55% probability

If Musical Angel gets comfortable early fractions without pressure.

Musical Angel builds an unassailable lead while the hold-up brigade get caught in traffic behind her sustainable pace. The front-runner's 190-day break becomes irrelevant when handed such tactical advantage.

Musical AngelMercury DayFleetwaterLady Roxby

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If Mercury Day or another prominent runner shadows Musical Angel closely.

The pace-tracker gets first run on the lone leader while the hold-up horses struggle to organize their challenges from the back. Mercury Day's trip drop to 6f suits this tactical scenario perfectly.

Mercury DayMusical AngelLady MarikoFleetwater

Hold-Up Horse Finds Gap

12% probability

If the pace collapses or traffic clears for one closer.

A patient ride on Lady Mariko or Lady Roxby finds the right gap as Musical Angel weakens from her long layoff. However, this requires perfect timing and positioning that's hard to guarantee with five hold-up horses seeking room.

Lady MarikoLady RoxbyGogo YubariAlpine Girl

Pace Collapse Scramble

8% probability

If Musical Angel stops quickly after her 190-day absence.

The front-runner's fitness concerns are exposed in the final furlong, creating a messy finish among the trailing pack. Gogo Yubari's recent race fitness could prove decisive in a slow-motion finish.

Gogo YubariFleetwaterAlpine GirlLady Mariko

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Musical Angel's fitness after 190 days - if she travels strongly through halfway she's very hard to catch

WATCH

Traffic development in final 2f with five hold-up horses needing room simultaneously

NOTE

Mercury Day's jump from the gates - prominent position early crucial with so many hold-up runners behind

WATCH

Lady Mariko's all-weather adaptation given her poor surface record despite strong turf credentials

NOTE

Pace through first quarter-mile - if Musical Angel gets soft fractions the race is likely over early

4:40 — Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Ted Le Saux to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Silca Bay and Champagne Powder led; the map had Ted Le Saux in front.

Helm Rock won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ted Le Saux

Prominent · 4

Mr BalooRedbud SixteenBrave ByreflectionValentine Boy

Midfield · 2

Silca BayGreatbritishdream

Hold Up · 3

Champagne PowderHelm RockFinal Night

Ted Le Saux is a non-runner, removing the only confirmed front-runner and creating a pace scramble between four prominent runners: Mr Baloo, Brave Byreflection, Redbud Sixteen, and Valentine Boy. This congested early positioning will create a fast early gallop as they jostle for the lead, then likely collapse into a cavalry charge from the 3f pole. The hold-up horses Silca Bay, Helm Rock, Champagne Powder, Final Night, and Greatbritishdream will benefit from the expected strong pace and superior finishing kick opportunity. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can unleash late runs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the prominent quartet go too fast early and burn each other out

The strong pace will set up perfectly for the closers who can time their runs from off the speed. Final Night and Silca Bay are proven course specialists with the class to capitalize.

Final NightSilca BayHelm RockChampagne Powder

Prominent Runner Survives

20% probability

If one of the prominent runners can steal a march and dictate sensible fractions

Mr Baloo or Brave Byreflection could exploit their tactical speed to gain a crucial advantage before the hold-up brigade can respond. The winner would need to be tough enough to repel late challenges.

Mr BalooBrave ByreflectionValentine BoyFinal Night

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If the prominent runners are too cautious without Ted Le Saux to follow

The race becomes a messy sprint finish where tactical speed matters most. This suits horses with natural pace who can quicken from any position when the race develops late.

Champagne PowderMr BalooValentine BoyFinal Night

Outsider Ambush

5% probability

If the market leaders underperform and the pace sets up perfectly for an unconsidered runner

Redbud Sixteen on handicap debut or Brave Byreflection dropping in grade could exploit the chaotic pace scenario. Both have been off long enough to potentially improve significantly.

Redbud SixteenBrave ByreflectionGreatbritishdreamValentine Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Final Night could be overbet given his course dominance but another 4lb rise may find his limit

WATCH

Watch market support for Redbud Sixteen and Brave Byreflection as both make significant stable debuts

NOTE

Champagne Powder's market move will indicate connections' confidence after 59-day break

WATCH

Early pace battle between Mr Baloo, Brave Byreflection, Valentine Boy could be suicidal

NOTE

Silca Bay needs watching for market confidence given 110-day absence despite course expertise

5:15 — Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Broadway Act v City Of GodHISTORIC

How it ran

Give Me The Night led; the map had Broadway Act and City Of God in front.

Broadway Act won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Broadway ActCity Of God

Prominent · 1

Give Me The Night

Midfield · 3

CandonomoreTasdeedBerry Clever

Hold Up · 3

ZoffandiaLunarioTennessee Gold

Broadway Act and City Of God will contest the early lead with both possessing natural front-running instincts, ensuring no shortage of early pace despite the small field. Give Me The Night sits just off the leaders in a prominent role, while the majority including Tennessee Gold, Zoffandia, Tasdeed, Candonomore, Berry Clever and Lunario settle further back. The contested early pace should create a strong gallop that will suit hold-up horses with a turn of foot over this testing mile trip. This race shape clearly favours the hold-up brigade who can benefit from the honest pace and time their challenge late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Prosper

55% probability

If the early pace between Broadway Act and City Of God proves genuine and testing

The strong gallop will set up perfectly for the patient hold-up horses to unleash late challenges. Berry Clever and Tennessee Gold are ideally positioned to benefit from their preferred racing style with the tempo suiting closers.

Berry CleverTennessee GoldZoffandiaCandonomore

Front Pair Battle On

25% probability

If Broadway Act shows improvement from his long absence and City Of God repeats his seller form

One of the pace-setters could prove too strong if they get away with softer fractions than expected. The front two have enough ability to make all if the pace isn't as testing as anticipated.

City Of GodBroadway ActGive Me The NightCandonomore

Mid-Division Strikes

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes stop-start affair

Candonomore and Give Me The Night can position ideally in the middle ground to strike when the pace lifts. Their prominent/mid-division styles could prove optimal if neither genuine pace nor patient hold-up tactics work.

CandonomoreGive Me The NightBerry CleverTennessee Gold

Pace Backfires Completely

5% probability

If Broadway Act and City Of God go too fast too early and collapse dramatically

The entire complexion changes with patient types potentially coming too late if the leaders set unsustainable fractions. This could open the door for a complete outsider to emerge from the pack.

TasdeedLunarioZoffandiaTennessee Gold

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Broadway Act could steal this if his 720-day absence hasn't blunted his ability and he gets away with softer fractions than his pedigree suggests

WATCH

Berry Clever's 166-day absence is a concern despite Oisin Murphy taking the ride and his excellent course record over this trip

NOTE

City Of God and Zoffandia have direct form from their Chelmsford seller meeting where the winner dominated the loser

WATCH

Tennessee Gold attempts mile for the first time despite being a dual course winner over shorter trips

NOTE

The pace battle between Broadway Act and City Of God should be genuine given both horses' natural front-running styles

5:50 — Virgin Bet Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)

2m · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Fair Dinkum likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mio Amico led; the map had Fair Dinkum in front.

Now The Eagle won at 41.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fair Dinkum

Prominent · 3

The TruantPort Of EntryCapone

Midfield · 2

MerrijigNow The Eagle

Hold Up · 3

Mio AmicoFleurmanBashful Boy

Fair Dinkum is the only confirmed pace-setter in this small field, with The Truant and Capone offering some prominent support but both likely to sit just off the lead. This creates a pedestrian early gallop over 2 miles with Fair Dinkum setting uncontested fractions, allowing the hold-up horses like Bashful Boy, Merrijig, Mio Amico and Fleurman to get into ideal stalking positions. The lack of genuine pace pressure means this will develop into a tactical affair with plenty left for the finish. This race shape strongly favours patient hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish, as the gentle early pace will leave stamina reserves intact for the final 3-4 furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

65% probability

If Fair Dinkum sets pedestrian fractions uncontested through the early stages

The tactical pace allows closers like Bashful Boy and Fleurman to conserve energy and unleash telling finishes. Both arrive in good form and benefit from the patient ride this shape demands.

Bashful BoyFleurmanMio AmicoMerrijig

Prominent runners capitalise

20% probability

If Fair Dinkum maintains a steady tempo but fades in the straight

The controlled pace suits The Truant's patient style, while Capone's experience helps him pick up the pieces. Both can position handily without overexerting early.

The TruantCaponeFair DinkumPort Of Entry

Fair Dinkum stays strong

10% probability

If the pace-setter gets an armchair ride and keeps finding off the leisurely gallop

His dual Lingfield wins prove he can capitalise on uncontested leads, and the soft fractions play to his stamina. The 124-day break becomes less concerning with such a kind early pace.

Fair DinkumThe TruantFleurmanBashful Boy

Pace collapses completely

5% probability

If the early pace is so slow that it becomes a sprint finish from the 2-furlong pole

The youngest legs of Mio Amico and Now The Eagle could prove decisive in a dash. However, both have question marks that make this outcome unlikely.

Mio AmicoNow The EagleBashful BoyCapone

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fair Dinkum could steal this if getting uncontested fractions and staying strong late

WATCH

Bashful Boy's form figures suggest he's primed for a big run off this lenient mark

WATCH

The Truant's 119-day absence may undermine his chances despite needing the run historically

NOTE

Mio Amico needs Kyle McHugh to produce his best but has winning form this year

NOTE

Market support for Port Of Entry after three-year absence would be highly significant

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 6 April 2026.

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