Facile Ocean led; the map had Through The Storm in front.
Facile Ocean won at 3.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Through The Storm
Prominent · 1
Whoyougonnacall
Midfield · 6
Not In A HurryDigby BridgeAnns GetawayFacile OceanEarthwatchCaptain Hanley
Hold Up · 3
Rose MountainFirst AscentCalamint
Through The Storm is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 11-runner maiden hurdle, having shown prominent tendencies in both career starts, and with a 580-day absence there is genuine uncertainty about how aggressively John Shinnick will deploy her from the front — but she is the only horse mapped at lead and is likely to set a sustainable, uncontested rhythm on Good ground. Whoyougonnacall is the natural companion for the prominent berths, though the field contains a cluster of genuine hold-up types — Earthwatch, Facile Ocean, Anns Getaway, and Captain Hanley — who are redistributed to midfield on the map because there is simply more hold-up inventory than the rear can accommodate; of these, Facile Ocean and Earthwatch are most likely to actually press forward and contest prominent positions. With one controlled pace-setter and Good ground at Kilbeggan, the race is set to be run at a measured tempo that will not sufficiently string out the field, meaning horses who can travel in midfield and produce a clean jump-to-jump round before asserting from the second-last will be advantaged — this shape firmly favours prominent-to-midfield gallopers with tactical fluency and reliable jumping, not true hold-up horses relying on a late finishing burst.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace, Prominent Wins
62% probability
If Through The Storm dictates an honest but sustainable gallop and the race is decided by horses travelling prominently into the straight.
Through The Storm sets an uncontested tempo, the field remains compact through the back straight, and a horse positioned in the first four or five at the top of the home straight produces a clean jump at the last to assert; this is the dominant shape because there is only one pace-setter and Good ground rewards economical, prominent racing.
WhoyougonnacallFacile OceanFirst AscentEarthwatch
B
Midfield Finisher Pounces
18% probability
If the early pace is genuinely steady enough to compress the field and a sharp jumper picks up from mid-division two out.
A truly dawdling tempo means the race is not truly truly run until the home turn, compressing the field to the point where a horse from fifth or sixth that jumps slickly at the final two flights can sprint past the leaders; First Ascent or Earthwatch, both capable of sustaining an effort from midfield, are the profiles who benefit.
First AscentEarthwatchCaptain HanleyCalamint
C
Debutant Surprise Lands
12% probability
If one of the unknown runners — Digby Bridge or Not In A Hurry — arrives with superior bumper or flat ability and makes its class tell on a first hurdle start.
An unexposed horse with untapped potential can bypass the experience deficit on a flat, right-handed 2m track like Kilbeggan where jumping rhythm matters more than battle-hardened form; the steady pace produced by Through The Storm suits a newcomer travelling easily in rear-to-midfield before unleashing a clean run.
Digby BridgeNot In A HurryCalamintFirst Ascent
D
Front Runner Holds On
8% probability
If Through The Storm, despite her long absence, rediscovers form and is permitted to coast in front at such a generous clip that no rival can close.
A truly uncontested lead at a pace that does not overly tax Through The Storm through the early stages allows her to bank a big enough lead turning in that hold-up types redistributed to midfield are racing too far back to peg her back before the line.
Through The StormWhoyougonnacallFacile OceanAnns Getaway
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Through The Storm's ability to control pace after 580 days off is the hinge of the entire race — if she loses the front or fades in the back straight, the race shape fragments and any scenario A prediction is invalidated.
WATCH
Facile Ocean and Earthwatch are both true hold-up horses attempting to race more prominently than ideal; watch how they settle in the first half-mile, as traffic congestion mid-pack could compromise multiple runners with similar profiles.
WATCH
First Ascent is partnered by Jack Kennedy, whose presence in this grade for Gordon Elliott demands attention — the jockey's ability to manoeuvre from midfield late is a specific threat to any prominent runner who idles after the last.
NOTE
Digby Bridge and Not In A Hurry are both completely unexposed, and strong jockey bookings (Sean Flanagan, Simon Torrens) on horses with zero public form should be treated as a live information gap — market moves at post time will be the only reliable signal.
NOTE
Anns Getaway and Rose Mountain both carry fade warnings and weak recent form; in a maiden hurdle with compressed pace, a false pitch of early speed from either late in the race could interfere with legitimate contenders approaching the second-last.
5:48 — Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Blue Reed likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Syosset and Surviving Murmansk led; the map had Blue Reed in front.
Convincing won at 9.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Blue Reed is the sole confirmed front runner in a 14-runner field and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, Jack Kennedy can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front over this 2m trip on Good ground at Kilbeggan. The race map is significantly congested at the rear: Valsorpresa, Convincing, Zaryagle, Corkbeg, Ferdia, Bravemans Bounce, Kinski, Ardgillan and Surviving Murmansk are all true hold-up types compressed into midfield because there is simply insufficient room for all of them to settle in their natural position — of these, Syosset and Liceo, with the clearest recent form and better tactical riders, are most likely to find a workable position closest to the pace. With Blue Reed able to bowl along at a fair but uncontested tempo, the race will likely develop into a steady-to-moderate-pace procession until the final bend where the field concertinas, placing a premium on a handy position and a horse that can travel into the race rather than grind from the back — this shape firmly favours hold-up horses who can be ridden prominently or those with the tactical nous to sit just off the lead, as pure closers starting their run from the rear will find it extremely difficult to thread through a compressed field over this sharp 2m trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Blue Reed Dictates Unchallenged
52% probability
If Blue Reed is allowed to roll along uncontested and the pace remains controlled throughout, Kennedy can dictate every fraction and steal a march turning for home.
Blue Reed settles into a rhythm, the field fans out behind, and Kennedy kicks approaching the last — having conserved energy through a moderate gallop, the front runner has enough in reserve to hold on.
Blue ReedSyossetLiceoWalk Win
B
Hold-Up Horse Pounces Late
24% probability
If the pace collapses in the final two flights and a well-placed hold-up horse picks up sharply off the steady gallop.
A true hold-up performer who has managed to find a workable mid-pack position — most likely Syosset or Liceo — tracks the front runner before delivering a sustained challenge at the last hurdle.
SyossetLiceoValsorpresaSurviving Murmansk
C
Prominent Racer Grabs It
16% probability
If Blue Reed weakens inside the final flight and a horse who has stalked close-up throughout swoops to lead on the run-in.
Walk Win or Syosset, both with good recent Good-ground form at these distances, have the profile to be produced late from a prominent position to take advantage of a tiring leader.
Walk WinSyossetLiceoValsorpresa
D
Compression Carnage — Outsider
8% probability
If the congested midfield causes interference or badly-placed horses find daylight late and the race is won from deep.
The extreme pace compression means a well-handicapped runner like Surviving Murmansk or Corkbeg, who has found a gap late, could snatch a place from the chaos, though winning from the rear over a sharp 2m is a tall order given the redistribution of so many true hold-up types.
Surviving MurmanskCorkbegFerdiaZaryagle
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Blue Reed — monitor in the early furlongs: if Jack Kennedy is allowed a completely uncontested lead with no horse willing to press, the front runner could steal this race on a controlled pace that never truly tests its stamina.
WATCH
Zaryagle — ran just one day ago and should be monitored for any signs of fatigue or sluggishness early; a horse running on consecutive days in a 14-runner handicap hurdle is a significant operational risk for those around it at jumps.
WATCH
Syosset — ran only five days ago and faces a compressed midfield; if Michael Kenneally can find a clear passage early and sit just off Blue Reed, the recent form is strong, but the short turnaround over hurdles on a sharp track is worth watching at the first flight.
NOTE
Ardgillan and Kinski — both returning from very long absences (245 days and 118 days respectively) in a busy 14-runner hurdle field; their unpredictability over hurdles after such breaks creates a potential jumping hazard, particularly at the early flights in a congested field.
NOTE
Field compression in the back straight — with 13 horses mapped to midfield or hold-up positions behind a single front runner, the probability of crowding and checking on the bend is elevated; horses drawn to race wide or with bold jockeys capable of finding daylight early will have a material tactical edge.
6:18 — Bernard Kenny Maiden Hurdle
2m3f · Good · MDN · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:48 — Joe Cooney Memorial Hurdle
3m1f · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Lead contested: Rocky's Diamond v Olympic ManHISTORIC
How it ran
Rocky's Diamond led, as the map showed.
Rocky's Diamond won at 1.91 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Rocky's DiamondOlympic Man
Prominent · 1
Rememberwhat
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
DrumgillPets Georgina
Rocky's Diamond and Olympic Man are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the outset over this 3m1f trip at Kilbeggan, creating a genuinely contested early pace rather than a dawdle. Rocky's Diamond arrives on the back of a sharp 10-day turnaround under an in-form trainer (3/7 T14) and is the classier of the two at OR 148, making it likely to set the terms with Olympic Man pressing and applying pressure through the middle stages. Drumgill and Pets Georgina are both hold-up types who will be waiting on the pace, while Rememberwhat from a prominent position fills the space between the leaders and the closers. The contested gallop over a stamina-testing 3m1f trip on Good ground strongly favours horses with a hold-up or late-running profile who can conserve energy and pounce on a tiring leader, with Pets Georgina's recent winning form at this sort of trip on Good ground making her the archetypal beneficiary of this race shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Closers Reign
62% probability
If Rocky's Diamond and Olympic Man fight for supremacy and burn each other out, leaving the hold-up horses with a weakening leader to pick off in the straight.
The two front-runners set a genuine gallop over 3m1f and begin to tire in the final half-mile on Good ground, opening the door for the hold-up horses to come through. Pets Georgina, a recent double winner on Good going over this trip range, and Drumgill, who has shown staying ability, are ideally profiled to absorb the pace and finish past flagging rivals.
Pets GeorginaDrumgillRememberwhatOlympic Man
B
Rocky's Diamond Controls
20% probability
If Rocky's Diamond bowls along at a controlled tempo, seeing off Olympic Man early and dictating a sustainable gallop that suits its jumping rhythm.
Rocky's Diamond, the highest-rated runner at OR 148 and with an in-form trainer behind it, asserts over Olympic Man within the first mile and settles into a rhythm that negates the stamina demands. A class-based front-running performance at a manageable tempo could see it hold on against the closers, as its superior rating gives it a fitness and ability edge.
If the pace is honest but not brutal and Rememberwhat is able to travel prominently throughout without expending excess energy.
Rememberwhat, prominent by style, tracks the leaders at a comfortable distance and benefits if the front-runners slow fractionally in the final mile rather than fully collapsing, allowing a prominent position to convert into a winning one. The horse's two runs both show placed form on Good going and a step up to 3m1f could suit if stamina holds.
RememberwhatRocky's DiamondPets GeorginaDrumgill
D
Chaos and Attrition
7% probability
If the race falls apart through jumping errors, fallers, or a frenetic early pace that leaves all front-runners emptied out before the final flight.
A messy, high-casualty race over an extended trip can occasionally produce a survivor rather than a winner, with hold-up horses benefiting most when the field fragments. Drumgill, who has experience of surviving over long trips even when finishing out of the frame, could pick through the wreckage, while Pets Georgina's jumping soundness gives her another route to the prize in attrition conditions.
DrumgillPets GeorginaRememberwhatOlympic Man
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Rocky's Diamond and Olympic Man at the early hurdles — if they clash hard for the lead in the first mile, both risk running themselves into the ground, making the race wide open for closers before halfway.
WATCH
Drumgill's recent pull-up (P in latest form) is a flag over this 3m1f trip; if the horse travels poorly in the rear watch for an early signal from Daniel King that it may not complete.
WATCH
Olympic Man's age (9), recent fall, and zero wins from 15 sim-going runs makes it vulnerable if pressed by Rocky's Diamond — monitor whether the claimer O'Sullivan can settle it once headed rather than letting it fight a losing battle.
NOTE
Rememberwhat's inexperience (only 2 career runs) over a 3m1f trip should be tracked at the midpoint of the race — if the young horse starts to paddle or lose its jumping rhythm, its prominent position could become a liability rather than an asset.
NOTE
Pets Georgina's stable companion Drumgill could affect her run if both hold-up horses get boxed in together behind a slow-moving traffic jam — watch the early position of both Ryan-trained runners to see if they secure clean runs on the outside or get caught tight.
Anodandawink and Kings Jet led; the map had The Little Yank in front.
Anodandawink won at 2.20 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
The Little Yank
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
ZolpharineMistyburn
Hold Up · 2
Kings JetAnodandawink
The Little Yank, a natural prominent racer redistributed to the lead due to the absence of any confirmed front-runner, will set the pace over this 3m1f trip at Kilbeggan on Good ground — but does so out of role, making the tempo likely to be measured and sustainable rather than pressured. With four hold-up types behind him, the race will develop steadily through the early and middle stages, with horses conserving energy before the race quickens in the final mile. The field actually holds more hold-up horses than the map can accommodate at the rear — Zolpharine and Mistyburn are genuine closers who have been mapped to midfield because they cannot all settle as deep as they would naturally prefer. This uncontested, moderate-tempo scenario most favours horses who can travel prominently or make a smooth mid-race move, with a well-judged hold-up run from a horse capable of finding a strong finishing effort on Good ground the primary beneficiary profile.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steady Pace, Late Surge
68% probability
If The Little Yank sets an uncontested, honest gallop and the race is run at a consistent, moderate tempo throughout.
The Little Yank rolls along in front without pressure, setting a genuine but unhurried pace that strings the field out into the final straight; horses who have been travelling smoothly behind and can produce a sustained finishing effort are handed the advantage.
AnodandawinkZolpharineMistyburnKings Jet
B
Front Runner Stays On
15% probability
If The Little Yank dictates fully, the pace proves too slow for closers to reel in, and the field fails to mount a coordinated challenge.
Racing against his natural style but uncontested, The Little Yank dictates every yard and, on Good ground over a trip where he has placed, simply outstays rivals who are outrun from off the pace.
The Little YankAnodandawinkKings JetMistyburn
C
Hold-Ups Overwhelm
11% probability
If Zolpharine or Mistyburn travel far more fluently than their redistributed map positions suggest and produce powerful closing runs.
With the pace steady and the hold-up horses unable to fully settle to their natural rhythm, a horse that finds a slicker jumping round and a better berth than expected can sweep late; Zolpharine's back-to-back wins on Good ground make this plausible.
ZolpharineMistyburnAnodandawinkKings Jet
D
Race Falls Apart
6% probability
If jumping errors disrupt the field materially or the pace collapses, causing a scrambled finish with no horse able to assert.
With an 11-year-old in The Little Yank and a runner showing recent P-P-P-P form setting the gallop, a faltering tempo or multiple mid-race incidents could produce an untidy, scrappy finish; the horse with the most consistent jumping and freshest legs benefits.
Kings JetAnodandawinkZolpharineThe Little Yank
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Anodandawink carries a "fades in finish" flag — watch whether the 3m1f trip and a tendency to weaken late combine to cost it a winning position after travelling prominently for much of the race.
KEY
Zolpharine arrives on 71 days off; watch its condition paddock-side and early jumping — if it takes time to warm up, its natural hold-up role in a slow-run race could leave it with too much to do.
WATCH
The Little Yank is an 11-year-old operating out of its natural prominent style; watch for any signs of a slow early jump or reluctance to stride on, which would remove the only pace-setter and leave the race in tactical limbo.
WATCH
Mistyburn and Zolpharine are both genuine hold-up types squeezed into midfield on the map — watch the first few fences to see whether either can actually drop back and travel in its natural comfort zone, which would materially change the race shape from what is projected.
NOTE
With Good ground confirmed across all seven races on the card and no change in going reports, watch for consistent jumping and ground-holding form to be rewarded — horses with multiple positive sim-going runs (Anodandawink 5/9, Mistyburn 9/15) hold a surface edge over those with sparser Good-ground records.
7:48 — KEPAK Handicap Steeplechase
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Jasko Des Dames likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Rexem won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Jasko Des Dames
Prominent · 2
Ma Jacks HillIntense Approach
Midfield · 3
Mickie AngelCeanndanaGrange Walk
Hold Up · 2
A Law Of Her OwnRexem
Jasko Des Dames is the lone confirmed front-runner here and, with no serious challenger for the lead identified, should settle into an uncontested rhythm at Kilbeggan's straightforward circuit over 2m4f on Good ground — conditions that reward horses who can travel comfortably and jump fluently throughout. The pace is likely to be honest rather than frantic, giving Jasko Des Dames every chance to dictate margins and conserve energy for the final climb. This shape suits hold-up horses who can track the tempo and pounce late, as well as prominent racers who slot in just behind the leader and improve into the straight — A Law Of Her Own and Rexem, both genuine hold-up types with strong Good-ground records, are ideally profiled. Three horses — Mickie Angel, Ceanndana, and Grange Walk — are displaced from their natural positions: Mickie Angel and Ceanndana are true prominent racers who cannot all hold that berth and are mapped to midfield, while Grange Walk is a natural hold-up horse pushed into a midfield slot, meaning none of the three are likely to race where they are shown and their chances in any shape that depends on those positions should be moderated accordingly.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Jasko Dictates Cleanly
62% probability
If Jasko Des Dames gets a soft lead and controls tempo throughout without being pressured, jumping accurately to keep rivals honest.
Jasko Des Dames sets a sustainable gallop from the front, never quickening so sharply as to blow up but making the race messy enough for closers to find traffic; horses travelling prominently just off the pace are best placed to attack the final fence with momentum already built.
Ma Jacks HillIntense ApproachJasko Des DamesRexem
B
Hold-Up Types Pounce Late
20% probability
If the pace is honest enough to string the field out and genuine hold-up performers can make ground smoothly from the final circuit.
A Law Of Her Own, with strong recent Good-ground form including a course-distance win, is ideally suited to this shape, as is Rexem whose consistent place-form over this trip on Good ground marks it as a reliable finisher.
A Law Of Her OwnRexemMa Jacks HillCeanndana
C
Pace Collapse, Midfield Surge
11% probability
If Jasko Des Dames sets too fast an early tempo and weakens sharply after the last, allowing midfield runners to pour past.
Mickie Angel and Ceanndana, though mapped to midfield rather than their natural prominent position, could benefit from a bunched finish if the leader stops — but both are racing out of role here, capping confidence in this shape materially.
Mickie AngelCeanndanaGrange WalkMa Jacks Hill
D
Tactical Crawl, Sprint Home
7% probability
If Jasko Des Dames sets a very slow early tempo that compresses the field and produces a dash from the final fence.
A messy, sprint-like finish over these obstacles at Kilbeggan on Good ground tends to suit the horse with the most residual class and a jockey able to manufacture a run — Ma Jacks Hill with Jack Kennedy aboard fits that profile, though a crawl is the least likely tempo outcome given the field size.
Ma Jacks HillA Law Of Her OwnIntense ApproachMickie Angel
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Jasko Des Dames settles into a fully uncontested lead — if Mike O'Connor is allowed to dictate every yard of the pace with no challenger, the race shape dramatically compresses and hold-up horses are left with far less ground to make up than their style requires.
WATCH
Mickie Angel and Ceanndana may both attempt to push forward early despite being mapped to midfield — if either forces its way to a prominent pitch, the early tempo could quicken and expose Jasko Des Dames to more pressure than the PACE_DYNAMIC anticipates.
WATCH
A Law Of Her Own ran only 8 days ago and comes back quickly; watch the market to see whether Emmet Mullins has her at peak readiness, as a hold-up horse who fails to travel sweetly on this tight circuit will struggle to produce a late run.
NOTE
Rexem is partnered by a 5lb claimer (Josh Williamson) — at a course like Kilbeggan where jumping fluency and positioning at fences matters, any inexperience at the obstacles over 2m4f could cost the horse its natural rhythm at a critical stage.
NOTE
The final race-by-race going reports all confirm Good throughout the card at Kilbeggan — the surface has not deteriorated through the evening, meaning early-race form lines on this ground are valid comparators and no late softening bias should be applied.
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.