Archive›Killarney · 12 May 2026

Killarney

12 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:05 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden

1m · Good To Soft · MDN · 12 runners

Chamonix to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lonely Island led; the map had Chamonix in front.

Alphonsus Liguori won at 1.40 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Chamonix

Prominent · 3

Alphonsus LiguoriDark LeaderOro Blanco

Midfield · 4

Vico RoadHenry HudsonLonely IslandConnor Of Mali

Hold Up · 4

Mergus SerratorRes IpsaSecond LineAmrum

Chamonix will lead uncontested from the start, with no other confirmed front runners in the field. Dark Leader, Alphonsus Liguori and Oro Blanco will track in prominent positions behind the leader, creating a moderate pace through the early stages. The large contingent of hold-up horses including Mergus Serrator, Res Ipsa and the newcomers will sit well back. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and kick clear, as the hold-up horses will need a very strong finishing effort to make up significant ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If Chamonix sets a comfortable pace without early pressure

The experienced prominent trio of Dark Leader, Alphonsus Liguori and Oro Blanco will be perfectly positioned to strike in the final furlong. The hold-up horses will find too much ground to make up against horses with proven form at the trip.

Dark LeaderAlphonsus LiguoriOro BlancoChamonix

Newcomer Surprise

25% probability

If Henry Hudson or Vico Road shows superior class on debut

The newcomers benefit from the steady pace and their trainers' strike rates, with Henry Hudson's breeding particularly appealing. They can sit handy and outclass this moderate maiden field with natural ability.

Henry HudsonVico RoadDark LeaderAlphonsus Liguori

Strong Closer Prevails

12% probability

If the pace becomes too steady and the field bunches up

Mergus Serrator gets the perfect scenario to unleash his finishing kick from the rear. The experienced hold-up horse can time his challenge perfectly in a slowly-run race.

Mergus SerratorRes IpsaDark LeaderHenry Hudson

Chamonix Wire-to-Wire

8% probability

If Chamonix improves markedly from recent disappointing efforts

The front runner gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear when the pressure comes. His stable's good form and the lack of early pace pressure creates the perfect scenario.

ChamonixDark LeaderAlphonsus LiguoriHenry Hudson

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Connor Of Mali and Second Line both show fade-in-finish patterns and are major lay candidates

WATCH

Chamonix may not handle front-running pressure if his recent poor form continues

NOTE

Henry Hudson's market position will reveal stable confidence for this expensive newcomer

WATCH

Res Ipsa faces a tough task after 278 days off, particularly from a difficult tactical position

NOTE

Watch for any early market moves on Vico Road given Murphy stable's excellent Killarney record

5:40 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Race

1m · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 6 runners

What About Us likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Flawless Fusion led; the map had What About Us in front.

Glyfada won at 2.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

What About Us

Prominent · 1

Glyfada

Midfield · 2

Flawless FusionMighty Danu

Hold Up · 2

Sursum CordaMo Mhuirin

What About Us is the only confirmed front runner in this small field and can dictate terms without pressure early. Glyfada and Flawless Fusion will track in behind as prominent runners, while Mo Mhuirin, Mighty Danu, and Sursum Corda prefer to sit back and come late. The lack of pace competition means What About Us can set an economical gallop before the hold-up horses make their moves in the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will develop in the small field finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If What About Us gets an easy lead without early pressure

She can dictate a steady pace and kick clear when the field bunches up behind her turning for home. The hold-up horses will struggle to make up ground in time with limited early pace to aim at.

What About UsGlyfadaFlawless FusionSursum Corda

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Glyfada or Flawless Fusion press What About Us early

The increased pace will set up the race for horses tracking just behind the leaders to strike late. Glyfada's recent improvement stepping up in trip makes her the most likely beneficiary.

GlyfadaFlawless FusionWhat About UsSursum Corda

Hold-Up Horse Charges

15% probability

If the pace is crawling and the field comes back to the closers

Mo Mhuirin or Mighty Danu can use their finishing kicks to sweep past tiring leaders. The compact field creates traffic issues that could hinder their challenges despite the tactical advantage.

Mo MhuirinMighty DanuSursum CordaGlyfada

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If What About Us goes too fast early or gets headed turning in

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse getting a clear run can prevail. Sursum Corda's recent consistency despite poor finishing positions suggests ability to capitalize on such circumstances.

Sursum CordaFlawless FusionMo MhuirinGlyfada

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

What About Us must get an uncontested lead as any early pressure could compromise her finishing kick

WATCH

Mo Mhuirin and Mighty Danu need clear runs in the straight as traffic problems are likely in this small field

NOTE

Glyfada has shown improvement when stepped up in distance and could press the pace if Ryan is positive

WATCH

Flawless Fusion returns after 197 days for a stable whose horses often need runs back from breaks

NOTE

The good to yielding going is a slight concern for What About Us who may prefer faster surfaces

6:10 — FEXCO Maiden

1m · Good To Soft · MDN · 13 runners

Hygge likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Treasure Rose and Phidias Ovation led; the map had Hygge in front.

Hygge won at 21.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hygge

Prominent · 4

Treasure RoseMystic BellaCoul DreamerTeffian Warrior

Midfield · 4

CrosshavenPhidias OvationThe Rock FactorTijuana

Hold Up · 4

Dazzling AngelTyraxesRadient ManTaj Crown

Hygge and Treasure Rose will likely share early pace-setting duties, with Coul Dreamer, Teffian Warrior and Mystic Bella tracking prominently behind them. The pace should be sustainable rather than cut-throat given limited confirmed speed in this maiden field. Hold-up horses like Dazzling Angel and Tyraxes will rely on the pace collapsing, but the lack of genuine early speed suggests the race will be run at a manageable gallop. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent runners who can position handily and maintain their effort, rather than hold-up horses who need a strong pace to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If the pace stays controlled with Hygge and Treasure Rose setting manageable fractions

The handy horses maintain their position advantage as hold-up runners struggle to make ground in the straight. Treasure Rose's consistent form and Coul Dreamer's recent hurdles win give them the class edge over their rivals.

Treasure RoseCoul DreamerHyggeMystic Bella

Late Surge Successful

25% probability

If the early pace becomes slightly stronger than expected with multiple prominent runners pressing

This creates enough tempo for Dazzling Angel and Tyraxes to mount late challenges from their hold-up positions. The class gap narrows when pace dynamics favour closers over pure speed.

Dazzling AngelTyraxesTreasure RoseCoul Dreamer

Pace Collapse Scenario

12% probability

If Hygge sets uncontested fractions and the field goes too slowly early

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse with a turn of foot can win regardless of position. This levels the playing field and brings outsiders like Teffian Warrior into serious contention.

HyggeTeffian WarriorTreasure RoseMystic Bella

Chaos Finish

8% probability

If the promising but lightly-raced horses like Taj Crown or Crosshaven produce significant improvement

Their potential combined with tactical advantages creates upset possibilities in a relatively weak maiden. Fresh legs and unknown quantities can exploit the predictable pace scenario.

Taj CrownCrosshavenDazzling AngelRadient Man

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Treasure Rose could dominate if getting soft lead from ideal position tracking Hygge

WATCH

Dazzling Angel represents unknown quantity after 635-day break with trainer switch to Joseph Murphy

WATCH

Taj Crown fitted with visor for first time and stable had recent winner at Ballinrobe

NOTE

Coul Dreamer's recent hurdles success suggests retained ability but turf Flat form mixed

NOTE

Early pace battle between Hygge and Treasure Rose could set up race for hold-up horses behind them

6:40 — Velo Coffee Roasters Handicap

1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 18 runners

Jasmine Affanalis likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nibras Rainbow and Can I Kiss You led; the map had Jasmine Affanalis in front.

Nibras Rainbow won at 34.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jasmine Affanalis

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 13

Morning ApproachHot To FoxtrotToy SoldierSecret MagicianMogwliCan I Kiss YouEthelwulfSaith SerenNibras RainbowLorr's GirlTynamiteSwiss Army OfficerHale Bopp

Hold Up · 4

Tero d'RosaFriars GateChipsrdownPeig Sayers

With 18 runners and all showing hold-up styles, this race lacks any genuine early pace. Jasmine Affanalis may be forced to lead by default but will set an undemanding gallop from the front. The lack of pressure setters means the pace will be crawling through the early stages, creating a sprint finish from the 2f pole. This setup heavily favours horses with a strong finishing kick who can produce their best work in the final 200 yards when the real racing begins.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Slow Pace Sprint Finish

65% probability

If the early pace is as slow as expected with minimal pressure on the leader

The race becomes a pure sprint from 2f out favouring horses with the best turn of foot. Jasmine Affanalis and others with finishing speed will benefit from the tactical setup.

Jasmine AffanalisTero d'RosaCan I Kiss YouChipsrdown

Tactical Battle Unfolds

20% probability

If multiple horses try to improve position entering the straight simultaneously

A bunching effect occurs with traffic problems developing as 18 runners converge. Those drawn low with clear runs benefit most from avoiding the scrimmaging.

Hot To FoxtrotSaith SerenSwiss Army OfficerNibras Rainbow

Front Runner Survives

10% probability

If Jasmine Affanalis is allowed an uncontested lead and quickens approaching 2f out

The favourite gets first run on her rivals and holds on despite the slow early pace. Late challengers struggle to peg back the advantage built through superior positioning.

Jasmine AffanalisMorning ApproachTero d'RosaCan I Kiss You

Wide Draw Surprise

5% probability

If the pace is so slow that wide-drawn runners can overcome their positional disadvantage

Horses like Lorr's Girl and Chipsrdown use their wide berths to mount telling challenges. The inside runners get shuffled back in the sprint finish.

ChipsrdownLorr's GirlHot To FoxtrotPeig Sayers

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jasmine Affanalis could steal this if allowed uncontested lead given lack of early pace setters

WATCH

Traffic problems likely with 18 hold-up runners converging in final 2f, wide draws face positioning issues

NOTE

Tero d'Rosa's four-day turnaround after Ballinrobe win may indicate connections expect another bold show

WATCH

Several reserves declared could change complexion if main runners withdraw before racing

NOTE

Good to yielding going throughout card suggests conditions remain consistent for this contest

7:10 — Brehon Hotel Handicap

1m3f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 12 runners

Honouramongthieves to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Femme Beauty and Musashi led; the map had Honouramongthieves in front.

Femme Beauty won at 9.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Honouramongthieves

Prominent · 2

DelusionalChicago Moon

Midfield · 5

MusashiGatlinburgCelestiallyCamecloseFemme Beauty

Hold Up · 4

CoolangattaBlissful BonitaMount EdenDivine Believer

Honouramongthieves will be allowed an uncontested lead with Delusional and Chicago Moon settling prominently but not pressuring early. The confirmed front runner faces no genuine pace pressure, meaning he can dictate fractions and potentially kick clear approaching the home turn. With nine of twelve runners adopting hold-up tactics, the bulk of the field will be bunched behind the leaders turning for home. This race shape strongly favors front runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early, as the hold-up horses face a significant tactical disadvantage with limited early pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Honouramongthieves sets modest fractions and kicks clear approaching the home turn

The front runner exploits his tactical advantage by dictating the race tempo and having first run on his rivals. Hold-up horses struggle to make inroads from their backward positions when the pace hasn't been strong enough to set up their finishing kick.

HonouramongthievesDelusionalChicago MoonFemme Beauty

Prominent Horses Strike

30% probability

If the early pace is steady but quickens from halfway, suiting horses tracking the leader

The prominent racers can track Honouramongthieves and challenge him when he begins to tire in the final furlong. This moderate pace scenario allows handy horses to position ideally while still compromising the hold-up brigade.

DelusionalChicago MoonHonouramongthievesBlissful Bonita

Hold-Up Horse Rally

15% probability

If the pace becomes stronger than expected in the middle stages, creating a setup for closers

A genuinely run race allows the hold-up horses to unleash their finishing kicks and overhaul the early leaders. Femme Beauty and Blissful Bonita benefit most from this pace dynamic with their proven ability to stay this trip.

Femme BeautyBlissful BonitaCelestiallyDivine Believer

Chaos Sprint Finish

10% probability

If tactical positioning creates a bunched field turning for home with multiple challengers

The race becomes a cavalry charge from the home turn with positioning and jockey skill determining the outcome. Multiple horses from different parts of the field converge in a messy finish that could suit an improver.

Chicago MoonGatlinburgCamecloseMusashi

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Honouramongthieves could steal this if allowed to bowl along uncontested and dictate his own fractions from the front

WATCH

Multiple O'Brien runners suggest stable confidence but their hold-up styles face tactical disadvantage in this race shape

WATCH

Divine Believer has faded in finish on recent starts and quick turnaround after just 2 days may not help stamina

NOTE

Femme Beauty stepping down in grade with Shane Foley replacing 10lb claimer could signal stable expects improvement

NOTE

First-time headgear on Delusional, Cameclose and Mount Eden may spark improvement but tactical positioning more crucial

7:40 — Outlook Publications (Q.R.) Handicap

2m1f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Slurricane likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sequoiaspirit led; the map had Slurricane in front.

Factual Fact won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Slurricane

Prominent · 3

Wandering RocksSequoiaspiritWinning Smut

Midfield · 3

Hidalgo Des MottesDark NoteChain Of Destiny

Hold Up · 3

Factual FactRiyamiHarry's Legacy

Slurricane and Winning Smut will likely contest the early lead with Wandering Rocks, Sequoiaspirit, and Hidalgo Des Mottes tracking in prominent positions. The pace should be honest but not excessive given the 2m1f distance and soft ground conditions. Harry's Legacy, Factual Fact, Dark Note, Riyami, and Chain Of Destiny will settle further back looking to finish strongly. This moderate early gallop over the extended trip will favour hold-up horses who can produce sustained finishing kicks, as the pace-setters will be vulnerable to challengers with superior finishing speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominant

55% probability

If the early pace proves steady and the leaders tire from 2f out

The soft ground and extended distance will sap the prominent runners, allowing the hold-up brigade to sweep past with superior finishing speed. Harry's Legacy and Factual Fact have the class and tactical advantage to capitalize on this unfolding.

Harry's LegacyFactual FactDark NoteRiyami

Prominent Raider Prevails

25% probability

If Wandering Rocks can improve on his recent Dundalk third and travel strongly throughout

His new blinkers and recent form uptick could see him dominate from a handy position, with Slurricane providing the main threat from similar tactics. The moderate early pace would suit both horses' prominent running styles.

Wandering RocksSlurricaneSequoiaspiritWinning Smut

Strong Gallop Suits Leaders

12% probability

If Slurricane and Winning Smut go faster than expected early and maintain their advantage

The faster pace would stretch the field and prevent the hold-up horses from closing effectively down the home straight. Slurricane's recent Gowran form gives him the edge over his fellow pace-setter.

SlurricaneWinning SmutWandering RocksSequoiaspirit

Factual Fact Class Tells

8% probability

If the De Bromhead runner can overcome his hold-up style disadvantage through superior ability

His Curragh second suggests untapped potential, and the yard's 13% strike rate could see him time his challenge perfectly despite the tactical setup. The soft ground conditions would play to his strengths from his bumper-winning days.

Factual FactHarry's LegacyDark NoteSlurricane

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Harry's Legacy could benefit significantly from the likely pace scenario having finished ahead of Slurricane when both last ran

WATCH

Factual Fact represents the in-form De Bromhead stable and may have more improvement to come off this reasonable mark

NOTE

Wandering Rocks showed improvement with first-time blinkers at Dundalk and the headgear remains applied

WATCH

Winning Smut returns after nearly two years off and may need this run despite connections showing confidence

NOTE

The pace battle between Slurricane and prominent runners could set up the race for late-closing hold-up types

8:10 — Killarney Racegoers Club Race

1m6f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners

Ebony King to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kizlyar led; the map had Ebony King in front.

Kizlyar won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ebony King

Prominent · 2

Stellar QualityTim Toe

Midfield · 2

Sky CaptainKizlyar

Hold Up · 2

Farren GloryDefiantly

Ebony King will lead from the start with no other confirmed front runners to pressure him, meaning Andrew Slattery can dictate a comfortable tempo through the early stages. The prominent runners Tim Toe and Stellar Quality will track just behind, while the hold-up brigade of Farren Glory, Sky Captain, Defiantly and Kizlyar will settle towards the rear. With one uncontested leader setting his own fractions over this stamina-testing 1m6f trip, the pace will be sustainable rather than searching. This controlled gallop strongly favours the hold-up horses who can unleash late kicks, as they'll have plenty left in the tank when the real racing begins.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Stays

40% probability

If Ebony King gets easy fractions and maintains his kick

The lone leader gets first run and holds on as the closers leave their challenge too late over this stamina-sapping trip. His recent Grade 2 form gives him the class edge when not having to fight for the lead.

Ebony KingTim ToeStellar QualitySky Captain

Hold-Up Horse Pounces

35% probability

If the sustainable pace allows the back-markers to wind up

Sky Captain or Defiantly time their run perfectly as Ebony King's sustained gallop leaves him vulnerable to a strong closer. The patient tactics pay dividends with a decisive late surge.

Sky CaptainDefiantlyFarren GloryKizlyar

Prominent Pair Strike

15% probability

If Tim Toe and Stellar Quality get the jump on the field

The two prominent runners get first run on the leader while the hold-up horses are still getting organized. Their tactical position proves crucial as they can respond immediately to any move from Ebony King.

Tim ToeStellar QualityEbony KingSky Captain

Farren Glory Class

10% probability

If the ex-Grade 1 winner rediscovers his best form

Despite his recent struggles, Farren Glory's superior class rating tells as he produces a trademark late flourish. His hold-up style is perfectly suited to capitalize on the steady early gallop.

Farren GlorySky CaptainDefiantlyEbony King

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ebony King's early fractions will determine the entire race shape - if he goes too slow he's vulnerable, too fast and he'll stop

WATCH

Sky Captain's first-time visor application from Paul Twomey often signals improved performance is expected

NOTE

Tim Toe's prominent position could be crucial if the pace collapses in the straight

WATCH

Defiantly's quick turnaround from his poor Cork run may indicate connections think the trip was too sharp

NOTE

Stellar Quality's long absence means her fitness level versus these race-fit opponents is unknown

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 May 2026.

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