Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:00 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race
1m · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Res Ipsa likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Straight Up and Res Ipsa led, as the map showed.
Straight Up won at 2.88 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Res Ipsa
Prominent · 1
Mai Dahlia
Midfield · 1
Loughrea
Hold Up · 2
Bold StyleStraight Up
Res Ipsa is the confirmed front-runner here and, with only five runners and no genuine challenger willing to press from the front, she should be able to roll forward and control a measured, sustainable gallop over this mile at Killarney. Mai Dahlia and Loughrea both carry prominent profiles but, with Res Ipsa already occupying that lead role, one or both will need to settle slightly further back than ideal — Loughrea in particular is a natural prominent racer who is most likely to push up and challenge Res Ipsa for the front, with Mai Dahlia the next most likely to secure a handy position. Bold Style and Straight Up are genuine hold-up types who will be doing their best work late, but a single uncontested pace-setter over a mile on good turf rarely generates the frantic early splits needed to set up a strong closing surge. This race shape firmly favours horses who can race prominently or just behind the leader and quicken in the straight, rather than deep closers who depend on a truly run race to close the gap.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Res Ipsa Controls Cleanly
70% probability
If Res Ipsa bowls along uncontested in front at a fair but manageable tempo, dictating from pillar to post.
She sets a rhythm that suits herself perfectly, and with no rival committed to pushing her early, she can conserve energy before quickening in the straight; her recent back-to-back placed efforts at 8f on Good ground confirm this trip and surface suit her well.
Res IpsaMai DahliaLoughreaStraight Up
B
Prominent Battle Disrupts Pace
16% probability
If Loughrea aggressively contests the lead with Res Ipsa and the two burn each other off, lifting the tempo for a furlong or two.
A contested early pace raises the overall pace shape and drains the front-runners more quickly, bringing the hold-up types into the equation; Straight Up, who handles good ground and has placed at this trip, would be best placed to pick up the pieces late.
Straight UpBold StyleMai DahliaLoughrea
C
Hold-Up Finishers Swamp Them
8% probability
If the pace proves deceptively strong throughout and the field strings out, leaving the back-markers with a clear run and enough real estate to close.
Bold Style and Straight Up, both genuine hold-up types, would relish this scenario, though the small field makes a perfectly timed late run harder to execute without a truly pressured pace.
Bold StyleStraight UpMai DahliaRes Ipsa
D
Pace Collapses, Chaos Reigns
6% probability
If Res Ipsa is taken on hard early, fades abruptly, and the field bunches in a slow-run scramble up the straight.
In a muddled contest with no clear tactical advantage, the highest-rated runner with the most adaptable jockey stands to gain; Mai Dahlia's consistent placed record at 8f on Good suggests she can handle a tactical race.
Mai DahliaLoughreaRes IpsaStraight Up
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Res Ipsa is the pace-maker and her ability to control the tempo uncontested is the single biggest factor shaping this race — watch how quickly Colin Keane sends her to the front leaving the stalls.
WATCH
Loughrea's natural instinct is to race prominently and she may push up to challenge Res Ipsa early; if Slattery elects to press the leader, the pace dynamic changes sharply for all runners behind.
WATCH
Bold Style has not run in 178 days and, while the handicapper rates her at OR 105, any lack of match fitness will blunt what is already a style that demands a truly run race to produce a late burst.
NOTE
Mai Dahlia's connections — McMonagle and Joseph O'Brien — are in sharp form (14 winners from 53 in 14 days) and she arrives on a nine-day turnaround following a win, so watch whether she is sent forward to cover her rival's pace or asked to sit and quicken.
NOTE
The going is listed as unknown across all Killarney announcements — if the ground is riding softer than Good in practice, monitor the horses with a "hg:t" headgear flag (Res Ipsa, Mai Dahlia) as this could subtly affect their stride patterns in the straight.
6:30 — SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Johnny Soda likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Vishaya and Glitter And Glory and Chirac led; the map had Johnny Soda in front.
Johnny Soda won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Johnny Soda
Prominent · 2
GolddreamGlitter And Glory
Midfield · 3
VishayaDervo AnnieChirac
Hold Up · 2
Red AutumnCasamorati
Johnny Soda is the confirmed front-runner and looks set to dictate from the front at a sustainable, uncontested gallop over this mile on good turf. With no genuine rival likely to press him early, he can control the tempo and present a flat, even pace scenario rather than a pressured slog. Dervo Annie and Chirac are both natural prominent types who have been redistributed to midfield on the map — this field contains more pace-seeking runners than can realistically secure those forward positions, and Glitter And Glory and Golddream are best-placed to actually occupy the prominent berths behind Johnny Soda. An uncontested, moderate pace over a flat mile on good ground typically sets up the race for horses travelling comfortably in the prominent-to-midfield bracket who have the turn of foot to quicken in the final two furlongs — hold-up horses face the risk of a late-arriving challenge that arrives too late if the winner kicks early from the front.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Soda Controls, Kick Wins
62% probability
If Johnny Soda dictates an uncontested pace and delivers a strong turning kick that holds all challengers at bay.
Johnny Soda rolls along at his own tempo, and the steady early fractions mean those tracking him in the prominent positions — Glitter And Glory and Golddream — fire their challenges at the same time but find him hard to collar if he has conserved enough energy.
Johnny SodaGlitter And GloryGolddreamChirac
B
Prominent Challengers Reel Him In
20% probability
If those travelling prominently behind Soda press at the two-furlong pole and the leader's early comfort is exposed.
Glitter And Glory or Golddream, travelling sweetly just off the pace, unleash a sustained challenge that overcomes Johnny Soda inside the final furlong as the gallop has been just quick enough to expose any flat-spot in him.
Glitter And GloryGolddreamJohnny SodaChirac
C
Late Closers Swoop
12% probability
If the pace quickens mid-race and the front rank ties up, allowing hold-up horses to arrive with a sweeping challenge.
Red Autumn, dropping back from 9f and holding genuine good-ground form, and Vishaya, handled by Dylan Browne McMonagle with tactical nous, get a fast enough pace to reel off a strong late run.
Red AutumnVishayaDervo AnnieGlitter And Glory
D
Chaos From Congestion
6% probability
If Dervo Annie or Chirac — both natural front-runners pushed into midfield — choose to force their way forward and create a contested, messy pace that scrambles the field.
An unplanned pace-clash scrambles the shape entirely, burning off Johnny Soda and opening the race up to a surprise performer with hidden improvement — Casamorati or Vishaya could theoretically land in that vacuum, though both carry significant form questions at this level.
VishayaCasamoratiDervo AnnieRed Autumn
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Johnny Soda — watch whether he is actively allowed to stride clear unchallenged from the gates, as any pressure from Chirac or Dervo Annie in the early stages would fundamentally alter this race shape.
WATCH
Dervo Annie and Chirac — both natural front-runners, both mapped to midfield; if either forces forward at the break it could create an unplanned contested gallop that changes the complexion entirely.
WATCH
Glitter And Glory — she has the most consistent prominent form on good ground in this field and if she travels smoothly just behind Johnny Soda she could be the most dangerous immediate pursuer in the final quarter mile.
NOTE
Red Autumn — Sam Coen's 5lb claim is an asset, but watch whether the pace is genuinely strong enough to allow a hold-up horse to close; on a flat track at steady fractions she may simply never get into it.
NOTE
Vishaya — Dylan Browne McMonagle's booking for an O'Brien runner with unclassified style could be significant if he decides to produce her with a forward move rather than waiting; her exact race position is the key variable.
7:00 — Killarney Glamping Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Quatre Bras likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Molto Amichi and Howyoulikethat and Marta's Prince led; the map had Quatre Bras in front.
Molto Amichi won at 1.91 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Quatre Bras
Prominent · 2
Molto AmichiLouiescall
Midfield · 3
American LawyerGrey LeaderEarls
Hold Up · 2
Marta's PrinceHowyoulikethat
Quatre Bras is the one confirmed front-runner and will attempt to dictate from the outset at what should be a sustainable, uncontested gallop over this flat mile at Killarney. With Molto Amichi and Louiescall likely to press from prominent positions, Quatre Bras faces some company but nothing that should turn this into a true test of pace — a controlled tempo is the most probable outcome. The field holds more hold-up types than the shape can accommodate at the rear: Grey Leader and Earls are genuine closers by nature but are mapped to midfield because Howyoulikethat and Marta's Prince are also looking to come from off the pace, meaning the true hold-up brigade cannot all find their natural ground. This race shape — a lone leader setting a moderate, managed gallop with a compact midfield — will suit horses who can travel prominently and produce a sustained run from two furlongs out, giving the edge to Molto Amichi and Louiescall over the pure closers who may find the tempo insufficient to stretch the field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Quatre Bras Controls Cleanly
62% probability
If Quatre Bras gets a clean break and dictates a moderate pace unchallenged through the early stages.
Quatre Bras sets a comfortable tempo that keeps the race together until the home straight, allowing prominent horses who track the leader to pounce at the right moment without burning energy chasing. Molto Amichi and Louiescall, both capable of racing prominently and sustaining a run, are ideally suited to latch on and pick off a front-runner who has had it too easy.
Molto AmichiLouiescallQuatre BrasEarls
B
Prominent Pair Fight It Out
20% probability
If Louiescall and Molto Amichi both push forward and inject more tempo into the race, pressing Quatre Bras throughout.
A contested pace develops with three horses fighting for supremacy up front, gradually increasing the gallop and stretching the field into a more strung-out shape. This opens the door for a horse with a genuine sustained gallop who can get into a rhythm — Louiescall, who has won and placed repeatedly over Good ground at big distances, may prove the strongest of the prominent group.
LouiescallMolto AmichiQuatre BrasEarls
C
Late Closers Pounce
12% probability
If the pace collapses in the final two furlongs or a contested early gallop empties the principals, leaving a vacancy for a horse coming from off the pace.
Earls and Howyoulikethat, though both mapped closer than their natural rear position warrants, could still produce a late challenge if the race is truly run at a proper gallop that softens the front-runners late. The caveat is that Earls and Grey Leader in particular are not guaranteed to find their natural position in this shape, limiting the reliability of this outcome.
EarlsHowyoulikethatMarta's PrinceGrey Leader
D
Outsider Lands a Blow
6% probability
If the race is run in unusual fashion — a false start, bunched field, or pace collapse — and an unexposed or lightly-raced runner finds gaps at the right moment.
American Lawyer, lightly raced and unexposed after 335 days off, is the wildcard here — a completely unknown quantity whose form profile offers little read but whose freshness could be an asset if the race sets up unusually. Grey Leader, who has shown fleeting ability at this trip on Good ground, offers minimal each-way value in a race that does not naturally suit his profile.
American LawyerGrey LeaderMarta's PrinceHowyoulikethat
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Quatre Bras's jumping-off speed at the start — if he doesn't break cleanly and establish the lead immediately, Louiescall or Molto Amichi could take over and fundamentally alter who is setting the tempo and at what gallop.
WATCH
Grey Leader and Earls are both genuine hold-up horses forced into a midfield tactical position by the number of closers in the field — monitor whether either can work his way back to a true rail-saving position or whether they end up racing in too-prominent a spot for their style to work.
WATCH
American Lawyer's unknown going preference and 335-day absence make him a live market mover to track in the ring — any significant support should be noted given AJ Martin's record of placing unexposed horses off long breaks.
NOTE
Louiescall's 268-day break is a significant fitness query despite a strong Good-ground profile — watch whether connections have given him a prep workout or whether his conditioning is an unknown similar to American Lawyer's.
NOTE
The going is recorded as unknown for all runners at Killarney today — if the track dries further ahead of the 7:00, horses with confirmed Good-ground form such as Earls (two recent seconds on Good) and Louiescall benefit, while Quatre Bras's Soft-biased history becomes a greater concern.
7:30 — Kerry Publicans Summer Race Day Fillies Maiden
1m3½f · Good · MDN · 11 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:00 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden
1m3½f · Good · MDN · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:30 — Heights Hotel, Killarney Handicap (0-60)
1m3½f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners
Wipeawayyourtears likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Canon Law and Cadreville and Wipeawayyourtears and Stonyfalls and Sands Castle led, as the map showed.
Chicago Moon won at 6.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Wipeawayyourtears
Prominent · 1
Point Cartwright
Midfield · 9
PolancoNo Bother AoifeGuildhall GraduateFlagstone LadyChicago MoonCanon LawCamecloseCadrevilleAugusta Rock
Hold Up · 4
TintinabullaStonyfallsSir TrancealotSands Castle
Wipeawayyourtears is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 15-runner 1m3½f handicap and, with no genuine rival pressing for the lead, Jack Cleary's mount should dictate a controlled, measured gallop from the front — a pace that is sustainable rather than scorching. The bulk of the field is made up of hold-up types, but the race contains significantly more pace than the map can accommodate: Polanco, No Bother Aoife, Guildhall Graduate and Point Cartwright are all genuine prominent or hold-up runners who will be competing for early berths, and the most likely to actually secure a forward position are Point Cartwright and Polanco, who have both shown a willingness to race prominently when conditions allow. With a modest, unhurried gallop likely from the front, those sitting just behind the leader in the stalking position — close enough to the tempo to dictate when they pounce — are best placed, rather than deep closers who will face a wall of horses with nowhere to go in a compact handicap field. This race shape strongly favours hold-up-to-prominent stalkers with a genuine turn of foot at this trip on good ground, not the outright leaders or the deepest closers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Wipeawayyourtears Dictates Steadily
52% probability
If Wipeawayyourtears goes unchallenged and sets a controlled, even gallop that rewards those tracking close behind.
Wipeawayyourtears controls the tempo and the race becomes a test of which stalker can produce the sharpest acceleration in the straight; horses sitting second or third with cover are ideally placed as the pace is never truly punishing. Point Cartwright, who has placed twice at this trip on good ground and races prominently, is the profile that benefits most from this shape alongside any horse who can settle just off the leader.
Point CartwrightSands CastleSir TrancealotCadreville
B
Prominent Stalker Pounces Late
26% probability
If a horse settles just off the lead in a clear position and produces a decisive burst when Wipeawayyourtears ties up in the closing stages.
The modest gallop lures the field into a false sense of comfort before the straight, where a horse with a clean passage and tactical pace delivers the winning thrust past a tiring leader. Sir Trancealot, proven at the trip on good ground with a strong jockey booking in Ben Coen, and Point Cartwright are the profiles most suited to this outcome.
Sir TrancealotPoint CartwrightCadrevilleStonyfalls
C
Hold-Up Horse Threads Through
14% probability
If the pace collapses in the final furlong and a genuine closer finds daylight to run through beaten rivals.
This scenario requires a true staying closer to pick a path through a packed field as front-runners empty — possible but mechanically difficult given the sheer number of hold-up types redistributed from the rear, meaning traffic is the principal danger. Sands Castle, who has finishing form at the trip on good going, and Chicago Moon carry the right profile, though both face congestion risk given the field size.
Sands CastleChicago MoonGuildhall GraduateCanon Law
D
Collapse — Winner From Rear
8% probability
If the steady pace suddenly quickens mid-race, stringing the field out and allowing a hold-up horse to pick off tiring rivals in the final two furlongs.
This is the least likely shape because the majority of hold-up types are not true deep closers in this race and many carry STYLE_FIT or REDISTRIBUTED tags, meaning their natural finishing kick is overstated by their map position. Only a genuinely unfortunate set of circumstances — a false jump or a mid-race injection of pace — would gift the rail-skimmers a winning opportunity here.
Augusta RockTintinabullaFlagstone LadyNo Bother Aoife
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Wipeawayyourtears — if anything challenges for the lead in the first furlong, the pace could inflate sharply, completely changing the race shape and bringing hold-up horses back into contention; watch the early exchanges closely to see if it gets a true solo lead.
WATCH
Point Cartwright and Polanco — both will attempt to claim a forward position and if they crowd the leader early, the tactical race becomes more attritional than expected, which could inconvenience horses tracking just behind.
WATCH
Traffic danger for all hold-up types in the final two furlongs — with so many closers mapped to midfield and the rear, the straight at Killarney over this trip is likely to be extremely congested; horses without a clean run could find their challenge materially impeded.
NOTE
Augusta Rock (71 days off, visor) and Chicago Moon (62 days off) are the two longest-absent runners — note whether either is being given a school or is genuinely primed for a peak effort, as trainer intentions will be difficult to read in-running.
NOTE
Ben Coen's booking for Sir Trancealot (JP Murtagh yard in strong form at 7/32) is the standout jockey-trainer angle in the race and worth monitoring in the market to see whether it is attracting support consistent with stable confidence.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.