5:30 — O'Donoghue Ring Collection Optional Claiming Race
1m · Good · DEFAULT · 14 runners
Cosmic Funk likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Minaun View won at 4.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Cosmic Funk
Prominent · 4
Land Of The GiantsMinaun ViewGo OutGlamazon
Midfield · 5
Love OrchidUsuario AmigoDarkdeserthighwayTimandiAurora Mist
Hold Up · 4
HazramaSeti OneElmanMagna Kotcha
Cosmic Funk is the one confirmed front-runner in this 14-runner field and, with no serious challenger for the lead, Colin Keane should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front over this mile on good ground at Killarney. The prominent types — Go Out, Minaun View, Land Of The Giants and Glamazon — will track close behind, but none of them has the profile or the mandate to force a contested early pace, meaning the tempo is likely to be honest rather than brutal. The field holds considerably more hold-up horses than the race shape can accommodate at the rear: Darkdeserthighway, Usuario Amigo, Timandi and Aurora Mist are genuine closers by inclination but will be shuffled into mid-division rather than finding their natural deep position, which blunts their finishing weapons. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can travel close to Cosmic Funk's controlled pace and pick up in the straight, as the truly held-up runners are compromised by the congested midfield they will be forced to race in.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Cosmic Funk Controls Cleanly
54% probability
If Cosmic Funk is allowed to roll along uncontested and sets a steady, well-judged pace that suits those racing just off him.
Keane dictates from the front without pressure, and the race becomes a test of which prominent tracker has the best turn of foot in the straight; horses who have been able to conserve energy close to the pace are ideally placed.
Cosmic FunkMinaun ViewLand Of The GiantsGlamazon
B
Prominent Stalkers Overhaul Leader
24% probability
If the pace proves just slow enough to set up a sprint finish that catches Cosmic Funk slightly flat-footed in the final furlong.
The prominent mid-packers — Minaun View, Land Of The Giants and Glamazon — arrive with a joint challenge as the field fans out, and a horse with fresh legs and a good turn of foot from that second-rank position collects.
Minaun ViewLand Of The GiantsGlamazonGo Out
C
Redistributed Closer Threads Through
13% probability
If the pace is quick enough to string out the field and one of the nominally midfield closers — Timandi or Aurora Mist — finds a gap to deliver a genuine late run.
Despite racing out of their ideal rearward role, a strong-finishing type that has been able to avoid traffic in a strung-out field can reel in the leaders close home; Aurora Mist's course form on good ground gives her the best profile here among this group.
Aurora MigoAurora MistTimandiDarkdeserthighway
D
Outsider Capitalises On Chaos
9% probability
If a moderate pace causes crowding and interference in the straight, gifting an unfancied runner a clear passage at the right moment.
In a messy finish where the fancied horses block each other, a lightly-weighted runner like Love Orchid or Go Out finds daylight and capitalises; this is the least likely shape but the field's traffic problems in midfield make some interference plausible.
Love OrchidGo OutGlamazonMinaun View
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cosmic Funk: watch whether Keane elects to roll along at a genuine clip or sits in behind — if he is absent from the front early the entire race shape changes and prominent stalkers inherit the race on their own terms.
WATCH
Minaun View and Land Of The Giants: both McGuinness runners share the same race, so watch for stable tactics — if one is sent forward as a pace-pressure horse to soften things for the other, the dynamic shifts materially.
WATCH
Usuario Amigo: the 1-day turnaround from last start is unusual and worth monitoring in the parade ring — if there is any sign of below-par condition, the compromised midfield position becomes an even bigger disadvantage.
NOTE
Redistribution traffic — Darkdeserthighway, Timandi and Aurora Mist: all genuine closers who will be racing in midfield; watch the early stages to see whether any of them is nudged further back to reclaim a truer hold-up spot, as that would be a positive sign for their finishing prospects.
6:00 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Race
1m · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:30 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden
1m · Good · MDN · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
Donna Time led; the map had Green Carrera in front.
Meriden won at 6.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Green Carrera
Prominent · 4
MeridenDrop Dead GorgeousCromac QuaySinmara
Midfield · 5
Sky WatchDonna TimeQuiet MutinyWild BessieSpinning Around
Hold Up · 2
Pivotal AttackWhite Sand Beach
Green Carrera is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with Dylan Browne McMonagle aboard, will stride into a clear lead from the outset and dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over Killarney's flat mile. With Quiet Mutiny, Wild Bessie, and Spinning Around all natural prominent racers who cannot all secure their preferred berth, there will be jostling early for the limited positions behind Green Carrera, though none are likely to seriously pressurise the leader's tempo. Meriden, Drop Dead Gorgeous, and Cromac Quay are the genuine prominent types most likely to slot in cleanly behind the pacesetter and travel comfortably in the slipstream throughout. This race shape — a lone leader setting an honest but unforced gallop — strongly favours prominent racers who can stalk the pace through the turn and produce a sustained finish, rather than hold-up horses who will need a significant gear-change that this tempo is unlikely to generate.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalkers Pounce On Leader
55% probability
If Green Carrera sets a controlled lead and prominent stalkers track comfortably before overwhelming her in the straight.
Green Carrera dictates a honest but unhurried pace, and the horses sitting second to fourth into the home turn have first use of the rail and the momentum to overpower her; Meriden's hat-trick of wins and strong Killarney-like flat-track form make her the prototype beneficiary, with Drop Dead Gorgeous also ideally placed to pounce.
MeridenDrop Dead GorgeousCromac QuayPivotal Attack
B
Leader Wire To Wire
22% probability
If Green Carrera's gallop is truly unchallenged and her class advantage allows her to quicken clear when asked in the final furlong.
With no horse willing or able to pressurise her early, Green Carrera conserves energy and simply extends when shaken up; her three wins at this trip on good ground and a high STYLE_FIT for front-running make this credible, though the quality of the stalkers behind makes a solo win the second-most likely shape.
Green CarreraMeridenDrop Dead GorgeousCromac Quay
C
Hold-Up Closers Deliver Late
14% probability
If the early pace is fast enough to cause attrition and the hold-up horses find daylight in time.
Pivotal Attack is the one genuine hold-up type with strong going suitability and a useful win over seven furlongs on good ground; however, a lone moderate leader rarely generates the end-to-end gallop that typically sets up a late closer, making this the third-order shape.
Pivotal AttackSinmaraSky WatchWhite Sand Beach
D
Chaotic Pace Scramble
9% probability
If the jostling prominent types disrupt the early order and the race devolves into a messy, uneven gallop.
With Quiet Mutiny, Wild Bessie, and Spinning Around all racing out of their preferred role and potentially crowding the middle pack, erratic mid-race fractions could open the door to an unconventional winner; however, since those horses are not true hold-up types despite their mapped positions, this scenario depends on a false race that the likely field management makes improbable.
Quiet MutinySpinning AroundWild BessieDonna Time
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Green Carrera — if McMonagle is able to slide straight to the front unchallenged inside the first two furlongs, the lone-leader scenario immediately becomes live and the race could be over sooner than the odds suggest.
WATCH
Meriden — watch whether Chris Hayes pushes her forward into second or third early; if she handles the step up to a mile and tracks the leader smoothly, her four-from-five form makes her the most dangerous individual in the field.
WATCH
Pivotal Attack — Gary Carroll will need to find a clear passage from the hold-up position and a sufficient gallop to close into; if the pace is pedestrian her finish will be blunted and her market position could be misleading.
NOTE
Quiet Mutiny, Wild Bessie, Spinning Around — monitor the first two furlongs for interference or crowding as three horses who want to race prominently are mapped back into midfield; any traffic trouble early is most likely to originate from this cluster.
NOTE
Meriden's stamina — she has never raced beyond seven furlongs, so watch whether she is still travelling comfortably as the field rounds the home turn; if she weakens late it confirms a trip concern that would reshape the market for her next start.
7:30 — Executive Helicopters Handicap (0-60)
1m · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Pete's Dream likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Jasmine Affanalis led; the map had Pete's Dream in front.
Bella Colombia won at 3.12 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Pete's Dream
Prominent · 2
ConvincingJames Henry
Midfield · 6
The Blue PantherTortolaShahada AceSecret MagicianLiamoDraiocht
Hold Up · 4
Jasmine AffanalisBella ColombiaWilliam F BrowneMedieval Night
Pete's Dream is the lone confirmed front-runner and is likely to slot into a comfortable lead from the outset, setting a sustainable gallop over this flat mile without any genuine pressure from behind. The field is heavily loaded with hold-up types — Bella Colombia, Jasmine Affanalis, Medieval Night, The Blue Panther, Tortola, Secret Magician, Shahada Ace, Liamo, and Draiocht all want to come from off the pace — meaning the contested section of this race is largely in the latter stages rather than from the break. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear; The Blue Panther, Tortola, Shahada Ace, and Secret Magician are the most likely to actually push forward into midfield positions to secure better ground, but they are not natural front-runners and will not pressurise Pete's Dream meaningfully. With a lone pace-setter dictating an uncontested, measured tempo over a flat mile, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with a sustained late run — those with genuine finishing kick and a clean passage to the outside will be the primary beneficiaries.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls All
52% probability
If Pete's Dream dictates a steady, uncontested pace and the hold-up brigade cannot generate enough late momentum on a soft-enough tempo.
Pete's Dream sets a relaxed gallop and simply quickens away from the field in the final two furlongs before the closers can organise a challenge; the prominent types James Henry and Convincing, travelling in second and third, are best placed to pounce if the leader flags.
Pete's DreamJames HenryConvincingBella Colombia
B
Closers Sweep Through Late
28% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady enough that a well-timed hold-up run from the back produces a late surge in the final furlong.
A measured tempo sets up a sprint finish and the horses with the most tractable closing runs — Bella Colombia and Jasmine Affanalis — find the rail or widest route to deliver; their good-going form at this trip makes them best equipped to finish off.
Bella ColombiaJasmine AffanalisMedieval NightJames Henry
C
Prominent Pair Grind It Out
13% probability
If Convincing or James Henry push forward aggressively early and sustain their effort to deny the hold-up horses a clean run.
Either Convincing or James Henry tracks Pete's Dream closely and presses from the two-furlong pole, turning it into a slog that rewards those who travel prominently rather than those making late runs; the hold-up horses lose ground in traffic and cannot pick up in time.
ConvincingJames HenryPete's DreamBella Colombia
D
Redistribution Disrupts Shape
7% probability
If several of the redistributed horses push forward from their unnatural midfield positions and inject a messy mid-race surge.
Tortola, The Blue Panther, or Secret Magician push up unexpectedly to crowd the pace, fracturing the race shape and creating a more attritional contest that suits horses with stamina reserves; this chaotic shape remains unlikely given how passive this group of hold-up horses has been in recent form.
TortolaSecret MagicianThe Blue PantherMedieval Night
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pete's Dream is entirely unchallenged on the front end — watch whether Jimmy Dalton (7lb claimer) settles him conservatively or lets him stride clear early, as that choice will determine whether the hold-up horses can close at all.
WATCH
Convincing has been off 107 days and drops sharply in trip from 10-16 furlongs; if he travels strongly for Ben Coen and gets a prominent pitch he could be dangerous, but fitness on first run back after a long break is the key question.
WATCH
Medieval Night ran just six days ago — watch his behaviour in the paddock and early in the race for signs of a quick turnaround taking its toll, as he has placed frequently but not won in 11 good-ground starts.
NOTE
The cluster of redistributed hold-up horses (Tortola, The Blue Panther, Secret Magician, Shahada Ace) may all attempt to push forward in the early stages; if three or four of them move up simultaneously they could accidentally press Pete's Dream and turn a steady race into a contested one.
NOTE
Draiocht returns from 268 days off with a hood applied for the first time in a handicap — an abnormally long absence combined with new headgear on good ground (a surface on which she is 0 from 5) makes her a live drifter to monitor in the market.
8:00 — Start Your Free Month Trial At racingtv.com Handicap
1m3½f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners
Tassarolo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Kevin The Great led; the map had Tassarolo in front.
Arch Enemy won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Tassarolo
Prominent · 2
DeuteronomyLimestone Red
Midfield · 8
VervainLimbocallVoice Of NortheastAlto SaxHighway Sixty OneMonroe DasherFantasy FaraCrypto Crash
Hold Up · 4
Young ChurchillKevin The GreatGod Of ThunderArch Enemy
Tassarolo is the only confirmed front-runner in a 15-runner field and, with no obvious challenger for the lead, Chris Hayes should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m3½f trip on good ground. Behind the pacesetter, Deuteronomy and Limestone Red are the likeliest to press into prominent positions, but the bulk of the field — Limbocall, Vervain, Alto Sax, Voice Of Northeast, Highway Sixty One, Monroe Dasher, Crypto Crash, and Fantasy Fara — are genuine hold-up types who have been redistributed to midfield on the map simply because there is no room for all of them at the rear in practice. With Tassarolo setting a measured, uncontested tempo, the race is unlikely to produce a strong enough gallop to stretch the field out and deliver a true staying test; instead, a bunch finish is plausible with those racing close to the pace enjoying the clearest run. This shape favours horses who can travel prominently or in a handy midfield position and produce a sustained finishing effort — pure hold-up horses who need a strong pace to aid their late run are at a structural disadvantage here.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Tassarolo Controls, Pace Suits Handy Types
52% probability
If Tassarolo leads at a fair but uncontested clip and those sitting just off the pace get first run.
Hayes on Tassarolo sets a comfortable tempo that compresses the field, and horses like Deuteronomy and Young Churchill, travelling smoothly in behind, get the clearest passage into the straight and simply outlast rivals from a handy berth.
DeuteronomyYoung ChurchillArch EnemyLimestone Red
B
Slow Crawl, Front Runner Steals It
22% probability
If Tassarolo is allowed to set a truly dawdling early pace and kicks clear in the straight before closers can respond.
A pedestrian gallop with no pressure from behind turns the race into a sprint for home with Tassarolo already lengths clear; the hold-up horses redistributed to midfield are in no-man's-land and lack the finishing speed to peg back a front-runner who has stolen a march.
TassaroloLimestone RedDeuteronomyHighway Sixty One
C
Midfield Grind, Best Horse Wins
17% probability
If the pace is genuine enough to string the field out and those tracking from midfield produce the best sustained effort.
A fair gallop creates a proper stamina test and runners who have genuine staying form over this sort of trip pick their way through; Alto Sax's recent good-ground form and Kevin The Great's better efforts at this distance make them dangers if they can get a clear passage from their midfield berth.
Alto SaxKevin The GreatYoung ChurchillHighway Sixty One
D
Late Closers Pounce
9% probability
If the pace collapses entering the straight, creating a wall of horses and leaving the door open for a late swooper.
This depends on redistributed hold-up horses genuinely getting to the rear and benefiting from a strong enough pace to make late ground — both conditions are unlikely given the compressed field and Tassarolo's uncontested lead; Arch Enemy, who has winning form on good ground, is the most credible late threat if the scenario materialises.
Arch EnemyVervainGod Of ThunderCrypto Crash
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Tassarolo's early lead is the race's key variable — watch whether Chris Hayes is allowed to stride into an uncontested advantage or if Deuteronomy and Limestone Red push up to apply any early pressure.
WATCH
Colin Keane on Limbocall and Ben Coen on Alto Sax are the two highest-profile jockey bookings among the redistributed hold-up horses — if either gets a clean early position rather than being forced wide or back, they could outrun their mapped roles.
WATCH
God Of Thunder's known finishing fade is a significant concern in a race where the pace may be slow enough to compress the field — watch whether Daniel King elects to ride more prominently than the horse's usual style to counteract this tendency.
NOTE
Dylan Browne McMonagle's booking on Highway Sixty One is a market watch — if this horse drifts or shortens significantly at the off, it could signal stable confidence in a runner whose recent 12f good-ground placed effort gives him a legitimate each-way profile.
NOTE
With going listed as unknown throughout the card, any late market moves triggered by a ground report closer to race time should be treated as significant, particularly for horses like Vervain and Fantasy Fara whose form figures vary sharply between good and soft.
8:30 — Kitty O'Sé's Seafood And Grill Restaurant Handicap
1m6½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Lagoon Nebula likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sonic Invader led; the map had Lagoon Nebula in front.
Loyal Touch won at 9.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.
4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lagoon Nebula
Prominent · 4
Coulstys WayBaila ConmigoJuralityFolly Beach
Midfield · 5
Sonic InvaderMaarishaParish ExpressLauderdale KingCelestially
Hold Up · 4
Loyal TouchParty DressMoyassrDevine Genius
Lagoon Nebula is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 14-horse field and, with no genuine rival likely to press from the outset, should dictate at a measured, sustainable gallop over this 1m6½f trip on good ground at Killarney. Baila Conmigo, Coulstys Way, Jurality, and Folly Beach are the legitimate prominent types capable of tracking in second through fourth, giving the leader a small, organised group ahead of a large hold-up pack. The field holds more hold-up and midfield types than the map can accurately place at the rear — Sonic Invader, Maarisha, Parish Express, Lauderdale King, and Celestially are genuine hold-up horses redistributed to the midfield tier on the map, meaning the rear of the race will be even more congested than shown; of these, Sonic Invader and Maarisha are best-credentialled to secure a workable position. With one uncontested pace-setter controlling an honest but unfrantic gallop, this race shape primarily rewards horses that travel prominently and sustain their effort through the final quarter-mile — prominent racers with proven good-ground form at this trip hold the clearest structural advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lagoon Nebula Controls Unchallenged
52% probability
If Lagoon Nebula dictates a comfortable solo lead and the prominent group behind lack the will or ability to close the gap.
Lagoon Nebula sets a measured fractions over 1m6½f on an unchallenged lead and still has enough in reserve to repel challengers entering the straight; the prominent trackers Jurality and Baila Conmigo, travelling just off the pace, are ideally placed to capitalise if the leader weakens late.
JuralityBaila ConmigoLagoon NebulaCoulstys Way
B
Prominent Trackers Overhaul Leader
27% probability
If the early pace set by Lagoon Nebula proves just slow enough that the second-rank prominent horses sustain their momentum and run past in the final furlong.
Jurality and Baila Conmigo, having saved ground racing prominently, find a genuine late gear while Lagoon Nebula ties up after controlling throughout; this suits horses with demonstrated staying form at the trip on good ground who can race handily without being exposed to a searching gallop early.
JuralityBaila ConmigoCoulstys WayFolly Beach
C
Midfield Finisher Swoops Late
13% probability
If the pace proves genuinely searching enough that the early leaders tie up and a well-positioned midfield horse picks up the pieces inside the final two furlongs.
Sonic Invader and Moyassr, whose recent form shows placed efforts at staying trips on good ground, have the profile to deliver a late run if gap-finding is straightforward; however, the field's true hold-up horses have been pushed back into an already-crowded mid-division, reducing the likelihood that a clean late run materialises freely.
Sonic InvaderMoyassrCelestiallyLauderdale King
D
Messy Race Suits Dark Horse
8% probability
If early positional jostling among the prominent group disrupts the pace pattern and creates an unpredictable finish that scrambles the expected order.
A chaotic fractions scenario with multiple prominent types competing for position behind Lagoon Nebula could leave several fancied runners in trouble while a fresh or lightly raced runner catches rivals flat-footed; Party Dress and Celestially, with fitness queries but latent ability, are the types who might benefit from disorder, though neither holds strong structural claims in a settled race.
Party DressCelestiallyLoyal TouchMoyassr
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Jurality (W.J. Lee) tracked a strong pace to win at 13f on good ground recently and has placed twice more over this trip range — if he travels smoothly in second or third, he is the primary threat to any race leader in the straight.
WATCH
Sonic Invader's Colin Keane booking is significant given the horse's back-to-back 3rd-place efforts at 16f and 14f on good — watch whether Keane can negotiate a forward enough position from a likely congested mid-to-rear group, as clean running will be the difference between placed and winning.
WATCH
Maarisha returns after 267 days absent with Gavin Ryan aboard — a market move on the exchanges pre-race would suggest the stable is confident about fitness, and this horse's natural style means it needs a strong gallop to deliver; monitor the market closely.
NOTE
Lagoon Nebula's early position will set the entire complexion of the race — if Luke McAteer sends promptly to the front and immediately controls the fractions, the pace remains sustainable and front-rank types are favoured; any hesitation in front could invite Baila Conmigo or Coulstys Way to press the pace and change the dynamic.
NOTE
The cluster of redistributed hold-up types (Sonic Invader, Parish Express, Lauderdale King, Celestially) competing for identical ground in a 14-runner field creates a significant interference risk on the home turn — watch for scrimmaging in the rear half of the field from 3f out.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.