1:59 — Hsbc Uk Agriculture Nursery Handicap Stakes
1m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Q T Boy likeliest to leadFREEHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Another Encore won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Q T Boy
Prominent · 1
Pequenita
Midfield · 1
Another Encore
Hold Up · 3
ParadingAgitatorGolden Caturra
Q T Boy is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, having led in 2 of its last 5 runs and most recently setting the pace; it will likely dictate from the front with a sustainable, uncontested rhythm. The five hold-up and midfield types lack recent evidence of pressing for the lead, and with no prominent racer drawn to challenge Q T Boy early, the pace is unlikely to be truly contested. Front-runners have a strong record at Leicester over this mile on good ground, winning at well above the odds-on rate; this shape heavily favours a lead scenario where Q T Boy either makes all or is caught only late by a well-timed closer, because the unforced pace and left-hand draw favour horses either up front or perfectly timed from behind. Hold-up horses have struggled here, suggesting Parading, Agitator, Golden Caturra and Another Encore will need significant traction to close effectively.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Q T Boy leads and holds
68% probability
If Q T Boy settles in front and races out of trouble with the field spreading across the track
Racing out of its usual role but gifted a soft lead, Q T Boy can control the tempo and bank the run; the sustainable pace and small field reduce the threat of a concerted challenge. Front-runners win well above the mark at this trip and going, and nothing here has the form to pressure decisively.
Q T BoyAgitatorPequenitaParading
B
Late closer runs down the pace
18% probability
If a hold-up horse timed perfectly emerges in the final furlong to catch a tiring Q T Boy
Parading and Agitator have both shown placed form on good ground over 7-8f and could angle for a decisive run late if the pace proves slow enough to leave them a chance. With front-runners prone to being caught late in a small field, a well-judged closer finishing hard could catch the leader when fatigue sets in.
ParadingAgitatorPequenitaGolden Caturra
C
Pequenita presses early and peaks
10% probability
If Pequenita and another prominent type force the pace from the flag and Pequenita finds extra in the final stages
Pequenita has shown prominent-racer form (2nd at Ascot on good ground in better company) and has been pulling hard, suggesting it could try to press Q T Boy; if the two set a faster pace than ideal, it may suit a restless, well-handicapped type. Prominent racers have underperformed at this track, and the likelihood of Pequenita sustaining a challenge uphill on good-to-firm ground is low against a settled front-runner.
PequenitaAnother EncoreGolden CaturraAgitator
D
Golden Caturra or Another Encore upset the script
4% probability
If the draw plays an outsized role and a fresh runner from the rear emerges unexpectedly late with significant improvement
Golden Caturra (21 days since last run, favoured draw) or Another Encore (37 days, well rested) surprise from out of the mix on a day when form fails. Both are lightly raced two-year-olds and improvement is possible, but neither has shown the recent evidence to suggest they can overcome the front-runner's control or the placed form of the main contenders.
Golden CaturraAnother EncorePequenitaParading
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pequenita is the most dangerous alternative if it breaks in competitively and Q T Boy's pace comes back to it; the form over 8f on good ground is solid, and the left-hand draw gives it a sight of the leader.
WATCH
Q T Boy races out of its natural role; monitor whether it settles in front or gets lit up early—an uncontested lead suits it, but any flashing early would hand the initiative to a closer or a pressing type.
NOTE
Front-runners have won at 1.35 times the odds-on rate here; the structure is clear, but the lead is only as strong as one horse can make it without pressure, and a small field increases the jockey's tactical burden.
NOTE
Golden Caturra's 21-day absence and favoured draw offer late improvement potential, but its zero-win record and soft-ground preference place it outside the main picture.
2:31 — Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes
6f · Good · HCAP · 16 runners
Troublesome Guest likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Arabica Queen won at 13.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Troublesome Guest
Prominent · 5
Bearly BlueEnamoredBladey LadyArabica QueenStar Bayside Boy
Midfield · 3
RocsaneBabziniSheer Beauty
Hold Up · 7
Tallahassee LassieSioux MoonPenny ArcadeLovely Dark AngelSoeur de FlashSeed Ya LaterCrystal Kraken
Troublesome Guest is the sole confirmed front-runner, having led in 2 of its last 5 runs and last time out, and will set a sustainable, uncontested pace from the centre draw. This modest tempo will not be pressured — the field contains no established prominent racers drawn close enough to challenge it early, and most rivals are hold-up or midfield types without the recent record to force a battle. The tactical picture is clean: Troublesome Guest makes its own fractions, tiring into the straight, while the genuine prominent runners (Sheer Beauty, Enamored, Bladey Lady, Arabica Queen, Star Bayside Boy) cannot all secure that position and will race scattered through the midfield. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and a lone, uncontested lead creates the clearest advantage. This race shape strongly favours a front-runner capable of holding on or being caught late by a horse that can close, rather than one built on mid-race pressure.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Troublesome Guest leads home
58% probability
If Troublesome Guest settles in front and holds the lead into the straight without being overhauled early.
The sustainable pace and lack of a genuine challenger drawn to press it means the front-runner avoids being softened up. Front-runners win 21% over this trip and going — a lead unchallenged into the final quarter is the race's strongest position.
Troublesome GuestEnamoredArabica QueenBladey Lady
B
Hold-up horse closes late
24% probability
If the moderate tempo allows a rested hold-up type to arrive fresh in the final furlong and accelerate past a tiring leader.
Seed Ya Later, Tallahassee Lassie, Sioux Moon, or Lovely Dark Angel are the likeliest closers given their form, but Troublesome Guest's uncontested lead means they must find a lot of ground. Hold-up horses win only 4.8% over this trip and going, and overcoming a clearish margin is a tall ask.
Seed Ya LaterTallahassee LassieSioux MoonLovely Dark Angel
C
Bladey Lady or Enamored turns foot mid-race
13% probability
If one of the senior prominent types breaks clear of the midfield and outraces the tiring front-runner in the closing stages.
Bladey Lady (1 win in 5 on this going, recent win, Easterby's yard in form at 12/117 over 14 days) or Enamored (recent winner, only 45 days out) find another gear as Troublesome Guest fades. Prominent racers win 12.4% over this trip — less often than front-runners, but both horses have credible recent form.
Bladey LadyEnamoredArabica QueenRocsane
D
Rocsane emerges from midfield
5% probability
If the redistributed prominent type or another quiet racer (Babzini, Rocsane) settles unnoticed in midfield and produces a sustained run from the two-pole home.
Troublesome Guest leads, but Rocsane (2 wins in recent six, consistent at this trip and going) or an unlisted midfielder capitalises on a wide-open race structure where no one has stalked the leader or taken its pace. This scenario requires both a tiring front-runner and a closer with hidden momentum, the lowest-probability combination.
RocsaneBabziniCrystal KrakenPenny Arcade
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Troublesome Guest may be overhauled if the moderate, uncontested pace fails to dull the finish — watch whether Bladey Lady or Enamored can break clear mid-race.
WATCH
Seed Ya Later and Tallahassee Lassie need Troublesome Guest to fade early; if the leader settles and holds up, their closing chance dies quickly.
NOTE
The field's crowded pace brigade (Troublesome Guest, Sheer Beauty, Enamored, Bladey Lady, Arabica Queen, Star Bayside Boy) will jostle for position, likely leaving the draw advantage (1, 2, 3) to hold-up types in early running.
WATCH
Rocsane's recent form (2 wins in last 6, consistent at 6f) is masked by its midfield placement; it will be forced to find an unlikely run late rather than stalk the leader.
3:02 — British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (For Horses Which Have Never Run) (GBB Race)
7f · Good · CLS3 · 11 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:37 — S & D Bookmakers Ltd 60 Years In Business - EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Good · CLS3 · 10 runners
Allaire likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Allaire led, as the map showed.
Ella Beach won at 7.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Allaire
Prominent · 1
Sister Cecilia
Midfield · 4
Summer In ParisTutts ClumpRaiderElla Beach
Hold Up · 4
Indian MaryMaldivesWadoodaLittleferry
Allaire is the sole confirmed front-runner, having led in 2 of its last 3 runs, but it races out of its natural prominent role here and will not be pressured into a contest. The field lacks any horse with a recent record of forcing the pace or challenging for the lead, leaving Allaire to set a sustainable, uncontested tempo from the front. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground, winning at a rate above market expectation, but this shape favours horses that can stalk and strike in the closing stages: with no credible pressure on Allaire and the ground riding firm, closers and prominent racers that arrive fresh in the final furlong are best positioned to capitalise on a steady pace that may dull the leader's finishing kick.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer arrives late
58% probability
If Allaire sets an unforced, steady pace and tires in the final furlong.
Hold-up horses benefit most when a lone front-runner controls but does not dominate. Maldives, Wadooda and Littleferry are all naturally suited to waiting and striking, and the firm ground rewards a late run. The pace dynamic creates a classic closer's race.
MaldivesWadoodaLittleferryIndian Mary
B
Stalker picks up pieces
26% probability
If Allaire sets the pace but a prominent type runs through it in the final two furlongs.
Sister Cecilia has winning form over 10f on good ground and can race prominently without needing the lead; the yard sends runners forward and Hornby rides positively. A stalking profile catches a tiring front-runner.
Sister CeciliaSummer In ParisIndian MaryAllaire
C
Allaire holds on
11% probability
If the steady pace suits the leader and its stamina outlasts the closers in a dull finish.
Allaire led last time and may control throughout if no one presses hard enough to unsettle it. The confirmed front-runner's experience and class carry it home, though this is a heavy ask in a race shaped for closers.
AllaireSister CeciliaSummer In ParisMaldives
D
Lightly raced improver breaks through
5% probability
If one of Ella Beach, Raider or Tutts Clump, all untested in this race's conditions, produces a surprise turn of foot.
These three hold unknown form over the trip and on this ground. A maiden winner with jockey or trainer form could steal through if the front and middle tighten, but the risk of an untested type is material.
Tutts ClumpElla BeachRaiderMaldives
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Maldives is the track pick and holds the best combination of going experience, yard form and hold-up profile to arrive late and win; do not underestimate.
WATCH
Allaire's uncontested lead removes the pace pressure that might sharpen the field; a dull, steady gallop is a closer's gift and works against the front-runner.
WATCH
Wadooda carries 346-day absence into a firm-ground mile and a quarter; if ring-rust is absent the form over this trip and ground suggests strong late finishing chances.
NOTE
Tutts Clump and the other lightly raced types represent single-race variables; any improvement or specific suitability to the track is not readable beforehand.
NOTE
Front-runners have won well over this trip historically, but only when contested; Allaire's solitary position and out-of-role tag lower this shape's conventional edge significantly.
Act of Violence is the sole confirmed front-runner with a record of leading in 2 of its last 6 runs and will likely set the pace, but the tempo will not be strongly contested given the field's shape. Alkuwarrior, Diamondinthedark, Maid In Devon and Magic Music all carry prominent-racer profiles and will aim to race alongside or just behind Act of Violence; Bleep Test and The Bitter Moose are genuine hold-up types forced to race in midfield because the field is overloaded with pace and lacks closing depth. This is a race for horses that can contest the lead or stalk it closely—front-runners and prominent racers have a strong record over this 6f trip on good going—and Act of Violence's uncontested lead will suit those willing to take it on from a forward position rather than those content to wait. The field holds more pace than map positions suggest: Bleep Test and The Bitter Moose racing out of their natural hold-up roles means a prominent or stalking profile, not a rearguard arrival, is likeliest to prevail.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested lead, stalker wins
62% probability
If Act of Violence sets a steady pace and a prominent racer tracks it closely before taking over.
Act of Violence's lack of a strong recent record of making all means pressure comes early; Alkuwarrior, Maid In Devon or Magic Music can pick up the pieces in the final furlong when the front-runner tires. Prominent racers have outperformed expectations at this trip and ground, and one positioned to take a lead that is not strongly defended will have the strongest chance.
AlkuwarriorMaid In DevonMagic MusicDiamondinthedarkThe Flying Seagull
B
Act of Violence leads throughout
28% probability
If Act of Violence breaks well from draw 4 and is allowed an uncontested lead.
The jockey Silvestre De Sousa is a forward type but Act of Violence itself led in only 2 of 6 recent runs and is racing out of role; a field lacking a clear pressuring threat means it is possible but not likely that a horse without a strong record of making all can hold the field at bay to the line. Maid In Devon and Alkuwarrior would need to fail to close the gap.
Act of ViolenceMaid In DevonAlkuwarriorMagic Music
C
Closers arrive late
7% probability
If the pace collapses mid-race and a hold-up horse finds room in the final hundred yards.
Neptune Legend, Travel Agent and The Flying Seagull have winning records on good ground and offer closing speed, but the field's glut of pace makes it hard for them to get a clear run at the business end. Bleep Test and The Bitter Moose, forced to race forward of their comfort zone, are unlikely to finish as strongly as horses allowed to settle.
If Diamondinthedark or Magic Music take Act of Violence on in the middle stages and build a decisive lead.
Both have excellent recent form on good ground at this trip and the tactical confidence to press a front-runner early, but Magic Music returns from a 17-day break and Diamondinthedark has not raced for 26 days, weakening their sharpness. A costly move that tires both before the line is a credible downside risk.
DiamondinthedarkMagic MusicAlkuwarriorMaid In Devon
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Alkuwarrior sits in draw 3 and has the tactical speed and recent form to track Act of Violence early and strike the lead in the final furlong—the likeliest winner if the lead is not defended.
WATCH
Magic Music and Diamondinthedark both carry enough pace to press Act of Violence early, but both are coming off absences (17 and 26 days respectively) and risk burning out before the line if they commit to a mid-race move.
NOTE
The concentration of pace in this field (Act of Violence, Alkuwarrior, Diamondinthedark, Maid In Devon, Magic Music all aiming at the front) means Bleep Test and The Bitter Moose, typically hold-up types, will find themselves racing much further forward than their records suggest—monitor their position at the 2f marker.
NOTE
Neptune Legend has solid placed form on good ground but is underdone on time since last run; it may find the pace has been too strong by the time it appears.
4:47 — Fireworks Festival 7th November 2026 - Book Now Handicap Stakes
1m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Lead contested: Home Hero v BreakdancerHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG
How it ran
Home Hero led, as the map showed.
Island Bear won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Home HeroBreakdancer
Prominent · 3
WesamBurdett EstateBearin Up
Midfield · 5
MagnaturaIsland BearGlen NevisTamzanSpy Kingdom
Hold Up · 4
Dovey MoonTortured SoulTrioMetallo
Home Hero and Breakdancer are both confirmed front-runners, having led in five of their last six and three of their last four runs respectively, and will contest the early pace hard from draws 1 and 9. This dual leadership will create an honest, galloping tempo—neither will cede ground without resistance, and both have the recent record to sustain it. Front-runners have a strong record over this mile on good ground here, winning well above the odds-on rate, and the contested nature of the lead means no runaway is likely; instead, a steadily run race will favour horses able to stalk that pace or pick up the pieces in the final furlong. A stalker or hold-up horse with tactical room will thrive more than a further back-marker forced to weave through traffic.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalker picks up contested lead
48% probability
If Home Hero and Breakdancer exhaust each other in a genuine pace battle and a horse in close attendance can strike in the final two furlongs
The pair's mutual duelling will set up a searching gallop, tiring both and leaving them vulnerable to a fresh runner tracking from close quarters; Dovey Moon's form on good ground and proven hold-up credentials make it a natural beneficiary, as does Trio's record of winning and placing on this surface with intelligent race-craft
Dovey MoonTrioMagnaturaTamzan
B
Front-runner toughs it out
39% probability
If one of Home Hero or Breakdancer can shake off the other in a prolonged duel and maintain enough for the line despite the genuine pace
Home Hero's superior recent record (led in five of six) and favoured left draw give it a tactical edge over Breakdancer, while the honest gallop will suppress the finishing kick of hold-up runners; the confirmed front-runner profile suits these conditions and this field composition
Home HeroBreakdancerBearin UpWesam
C
Midfield runner accelerates late
10% probability
If the pace defaults to a steady tempo, neither front-runner truly stretches the field, and a midfield runner can cover ground in the straight without needing to reach from the rear
Magnatura, Tamzan and Glen Nevis all handle this ground and have winning form on similar surfaces; a slower early framing would allow them to slot in, build momentum and deliver a late run without the handicap of distant traffic
MagnaturaTamzanTrioDovey Moon
D
Hold-up horse finds space late
3% probability
If the pace collapses entirely and a horse can produce a late flourish from the rear without serious impediment
Unlikely given the confirmed front-runner pairing; only Metallo or a very patient Tortured Soul could deliver from the tail, but both lack recent form and would need several horses in front to tire badly
MetalloTortured SoulDovey MoonTrio
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Home Hero and Breakdancer will exhaust each other in a genuine pace duel, setting up Dovey Moon or Trio to arrive fresh in the final furlong.
WATCH
Spy Kingdom's 220-day absence and unknown profile make it an accident waiting to happen; ignore the official rating and treat it as a wild card.
NOTE
Bearin Up's left-draw and Easterby's recent form make it a live stalking option if it can tuck in behind the front-running pair.
KEY
Island Bear and Glen Nevis lack the form and draw to challenge from midfield in a race where traffic will be congested and the pace genuine.
NOTE
The left draw has favoured Leicester runners on the day; Home Hero benefits most from this, while Trio's outside 12 draw is a genuine tactical handicap despite its class.
Cuban Girl, a confirmed front-runner from its recent record, will likely set a sustainable pace from the 9-draw with no immediate challenger capable of pressing it hard early. The field lacks a second genuine pace horse willing to go forward — Captain Corelli and Albeyours are prominent types but lack the appetite shown by Cuban Girl, and Too Much Trevor is a true hold-up runner misplaced in the visible order. This creates a tempo-controlled race run to suit hold-up horses and late-arriving types: the front-runner will not be harried into a suicidal gallop, meaning the closing window for Midnight's Dream, Heer's Sadie and Violet Goldsmith — all with proven form at this trip on good ground — opens wide down the straight. Front-runners have historically won strongly over this 7f course setup, but this particular race shape, built on a lone sustainable lead with no contested pace, reverses that edge: hold-up horses and stalkers primed to strike in the final furlong are favoured here.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses hit the line
56% probability
If Cuban Girl sets uncontested fractions and nothing pressures the pace from 2f out
Hold-up types will be held up in clear air, able to quicken without traffic once called upon. Midnight's Dream (2/7f last time, drawn favoured), Violet Goldsmith (four placings in five runs here, well-treated by the handicapper) and Heer's Sadie (five placing finishes from eight runs at this trip and going) can pick their moment and storm through a tiring field.
Midnight's DreamViolet GoldsmithHeer's SadieCredit Forgedd It
B
Stalking pair exploit cutback
24% probability
If Sir David or Aim For The Bull engineer a bold bid from 3f out before Cuban Girl's stamina ebbs
Neither is a confirmed front-runner; both have proven middle-ground form at this distance. A stalking run — close enough to strike before the closing cavalry arrives — bypasses the need to lead and gives them a jump on the slow-finishing hold-up types.
Aim For The BullSir DavidDiane ChasseresseAlbeyours
C
Prominent racer takes control early
12% probability
If Cuban Girl fails to settle and Captain Corelli or Albeyours fight for the lead from the 2-furlong pole
A contested, faster pace will suit prominent horses who thrive on a strong gallop. However, both Captain Corelli (fades in the finish, no wins in last four starts) and Albeyours (pulled hard recently, weak record at 7f) are reluctant choices and unlikely to deliver on the lead.
Captain CorelliAlbeyoursShark Two OneClasina
D
Too Much Trevor steals it late
8% probability
If the field fractures mid-race and Too Much Trevor — a true hold-up type forced deep by the field structure — gets a clear run in the closing stages despite an awkward draw
Too Much Trevor has won twice at 7f on good ground and four times placed, a strong closer's pedigree. Racing out of its natural hold-up window will hamper its preparation, but if gaps appear it has the pace to score.
Too Much TrevorCredit Forgedd ItClasinaRidger
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Midnight's Dream is the likeliest scorer if Cuban Girl's fractions remain steady — two placings at this trip on identical going and a favoured draw leave it posed to strike late.
WATCH
Cuban Girl's recent pulling pattern may force it into a quicker pace than intended; if pressed early, the uncontested lead premise collapses and a faster tempo assists prominent racers instead.
NOTE
The field contains three natural hold-up types (Midnight's Dream, Heer's Sadie, Violet Goldsmith) and Too Much Trevor forced out of position — a heavy concentration of closers suggests the winner is likeliest to be one of them.
WATCH
Captain Corelli and Albeyours have shown poor recent form and weak finishes; neither is trusted to deliver a genuine lead, making a prominent-racer scenario less probable than the headline figures might suggest.
NOTE
Sir David's three wins at 7f and good going are genuine form points, but recent sequence (8-2-9) shows a horse slipping in class; any stalking bid requires it to quicken decisively from a three-length deficit, which is not its pattern.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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