Jimtrott won at 4.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Al Wathba
Prominent · 1
Jimtrott
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Ebt's Warrior
Al Wathba is the sole confirmed pace-setter here and, with only two rivals in a three-runner field, will lead comfortably into the 7f trip on good-to-firm ground without any rival capable of pressing him. Jimtrott holds a prominent style and may track Al Wathba closely through the early stages, but with no horse genuinely looking to take on the leader, the fractions should be controlled and metronomic. Ebt's Warrior, redistributed to the rear of this small field, is not a natural hold-up type and will likely sit closer than the mapping implies once the race develops in real time. The race shape strongly favours the lead-and-dictate profile — a single front-runner setting a sustainable, uncontested pace on fast ground at 7f rewards horses who can bowl along and resist the challenge, making prominent-to-leading runners the primary beneficiaries.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Al Wathba Controls Wire-to-Wire
72% probability
If Al Wathba leads unchallenged and dictates a comfortable gallop, gradually extending the margin through the final two furlongs.
Al Wathba has already demonstrated ability at 7f on good ground (runner-up on sole start) and with Charlie Appleby's operation behind him, an uncontested lead on a flat track suits him ideally; no rival has the profile or mandate to peg him back early.
Al WathbaJimtrott
B
Prominent Pair Battle It Out
14% probability
If Jimtrott tracks tightly and puts Al Wathba under genuine pressure from halfway, turning it into a two-horse duel.
Eve Johnson Houghton's Jimtrott has been placed twice at shorter trips and stepping up to 7f may unlock more stamina, allowing him to sustain a challenge; if Al Wathba's lead is contested, both prominent-style horses slug it out and the stronger stayer prevails.
JimtrottAl Wathba
C
Ebt's Warrior Late Surge
9% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong and Ebt's Warrior, sitting last, produces a late run to catch the tiring leaders.
Ebt's Warrior is an unknown quantity on debut and his redistribution to the rear reflects tactical necessity rather than natural style, so any late finish depends on the front-runners tying each other up; in a three-runner race that scenario is unlikely but cannot be fully dismissed on debut.
Ebt's WarriorJimtrott
D
Flat Finish — Stamina Test
5% probability
If good-to-firm ground rides quicker than expected and all three runners are tested for stamina over the final furlong.
A faster-than-anticipated surface could stretch the pace so that no one horse finishes strongly, leaving the race decided by the one with the deepest reservoir of stamina; with Jimtrott having form over shorter trips and Ebt's Warrior unknown, Al Wathba's Appleby preparation may prove the deciding factor.
Al WathbaEbt's Warrior
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Al Wathba leads unchallenged — watch whether he finds a true gallop or dawdles, as a falsely-run race over 7f could compress the finish and undermine his positional advantage.
WATCH
Jimtrott's stamina over 7f on good-to-firm is unproven after two placed runs at 6f on softer surfaces — watch whether he fades inside the final furlong if the pace is even slightly honest.
WATCH
Ebt's Warrior is a debut runner with no sectional or style data — watch the market moves at the off and his early positioning, as either could reveal trainer intelligence not visible in the form.
NOTE
With only three runners, any early incident or stumble at the start could dramatically reshape the race — watch the break closely, particularly from Al Wathba who must secure the lead to fulfil his expected role.
Katie's Cavalier led; the map had Love Rome in front.
Katie's Cavalier won at 9.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Love Rome
Prominent · 2
Greek SymphonyKatie's Cavalier
Midfield · 1
Jazzy Bay
Hold Up · 2
BaysideBetter Nature
Love Rome is the sole confirmed front-runner in a six-horse field and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, she should secure a comfortable, uncontested position from the outset and control tempo on good-to-firm ground over seven furlongs at Leicester. Greek Symphony and Katie's Cavalier are the prominent types most likely to track closely in second and third, but neither has the profile to seriously pressure Love Rome for the lead, meaning the pace is likely to be sustainable and even — a classic front-runner's setup. Jazzy Bay is a true hold-up horse redistributed to midfield on the map because there are more closers in this field than the pace shape can accommodate at the rear; she is unlikely to get her natural late position and her tactical scenario is consequently discounted. This race shape strongly favours horses who can sit prominently or lead, as the controlled tempo will not generate the sustained finish pace that genuine hold-up horses need to reel in a front-runner who has had it easy through the early and middle stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Love Rome Leads Unchallenged
70% probability
If Love Rome breaks cleanly and dictates a comfortable, uncontested gallop throughout.
Love Rome sets a manageable pace with Greek Symphony and Katie's Cavalier tracking at a respectful distance, and she has enough in hand at the weights to repel any challenge from the two furlong pole home on this good-to-firm surface.
Love RomeGreek SymphonyKatie's CavalierBetter Nature
B
Prominent Pair Overhaul Leader
16% probability
If Greek Symphony or Katie's Cavalier track aggressively and wear Love Rome down in the final two furlongs.
The tempo stays honest but the closeness of the tracking pair to the leader means any slight error or fade from Love Rome becomes decisive, with Greek Symphony's recent winning form over seven furlongs making her the chief beneficiary.
If the pace becomes genuinely hot and the field strings out, allowing a late-running horse to pick off tired rivals.
Better Nature, who has placed twice over seven furlongs on good ground and is trained in-form, is the most credible closer here given her natural style; Jazzy Bay's redistribution means she is unlikely to get far enough back to produce her trademark late run.
Better NatureJazzy BayGreek SymphonyBayside
D
Race Falls Apart Tactically
5% probability
If there is a significant incident, stumble, or Love Rome is slowly away and the field bunches chaotically.
Without a controlling leader the race becomes a sprint from two furlongs out, suiting any runner with tactical speed regardless of form; Bayside's varied experience and Jazzy Bay's consistent placing ability could see them involved.
BaysideJazzy BayBetter NatureGreek Symphony
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Love Rome's start is critical — if Cieren Fallon gets her away cleanly she is highly likely to control this race from front to finish; watch for her barrier manners.|
WATCH
Greek Symphony is the most likely beneficiary if Love Rome weakens, having won over the same trip on similarly fast ground; Mason Paetel's 5lb claim keeps the weight competitive.|
WATCH
Jazzy Bay's redistribution means she may end up racing in an unnatural midfield spot — if she is pushed forward by her jockey to compensate, she could compromise her finishing effort entirely.|
NOTE
The going is reported as Good to Firm for this race specifically, which suits the prominently-run shape and may be a concern for Bayside, whose only win came on soft ground.|
NOTE
Katie's Cavalier's trainer David Loughnane is winless from 16 runners in the past 14 days — in a race where her form reads 5664, the yard's current lack of firepower makes an upgrade in finishing position harder to project.|
3:34 — TLC Teddies For Loving Care Handicap Stakes
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Mountbatten to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sahm Naif led; the map had Mountbatten in front.
Robusto won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mountbatten
Prominent · 2
RobustoSahm Naif
Midfield · 1
Ottoman
Hold Up · 2
Barak WarriorAl Maslool
Mountbatten is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead in a field of six over 1m4f on good-to-firm ground at Leicester, he should stride out unchallenged and set a sustainable, controlled tempo from the outset. Robusto and Sahm Naif are the natural prominent types who will look to track close behind, giving the race a clear shape: one horse on the engine, two in close attendance, and the remainder coming from further back. The hold-up contingent of Barak Warrior, Al Maslool, and the redistributed Ottoman will need either the pace to quicken sharply or Mountbatten to fold to launch a telling late run — neither outcome is guaranteed when the fractions are dictated at will. This race shape strongly favours horses who race prominently or can at least press from second or third, as a steady-to-moderate gallop set by a relaxed front-runner leaves little room for closers to make up meaningful ground late on; the field holds more hold-up types than can realistically get to the front, and with Ottoman a true hold-up horse mapped forward only through redistribution, the rear-division advantage is further diluted.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mountbatten Controls Unchallenged
70% probability
If Mountbatten bowls along in front at his own tempo and the prominent horses behind him cannot sustain enough pressure to force a truly searching pace.
Mountbatten dictates every fraction, reaches the home straight with reserves intact, and only those travelling close to him throughout have any realistic chance of pegging him back; a tactical crawl-then-quicken plays entirely to the strengths of the leader and those racing in his slipstream.
MountbattenRobustoSahm NaifAl Maslool
B
Prominent Pair Apply Pressure
16% probability
If Robusto and Sahm Naif both push forward aggressively early and collectively raise the gallop enough to stretch the field.
A faster, more genuine pace tests Mountbatten's stamina and opens the race up for hold-up horses to close, but those riding prominently who conserve energy best through the middle stages remain best placed at the two-furlong pole.
RobustoSahm NaifAl MasloolMountbatten
C
Late Hold-Up Finish
9% probability
If the pace collapses turning for home and the closers find genuine daylight to launch coordinated runs from the rear.
Al Maslool, with course form and a good jockey booking in Cieren Fallon, is best equipped to time a late run, while Barak Warrior's recent winning form over 12f on firm gives him some claims; however, this scenario is undermined by Ottoman being a true hold-up type who is unlikely to secure a clean stalking position and therefore cannot be relied upon as a closer here.
Al MasloolBarak WarriorOttomanSahm Naif
D
Race Turns Tactical Mess
5% probability
If early jostling for position disrupts the anticipated shape and the race is run in fitful bursts rather than at any consistent rhythm.
An uneven gallop unsettles horses with a clear positional preference and opens the door for an opportunist, though with only six runners such chaos is unlikely; any runner able to switch off and quicken late from a handy pitch stands to benefit most.
Al MasloolRobustoSahm NaifBarak Warrior
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mountbatten's ability to set a truly uncontested gallop is the single biggest determinant of race shape — watch whether Robusto or Sahm Naif press Dylan Hogan for the lead in the opening furlong, as any sustained challenge for the front could significantly alter pace fractions and open the race up.
WATCH
Al Maslool's draw and early positioning will be critical — Cieren Fallon needs a clean break and clear passage turning for home, and if he gets boxed in behind a slow-moving pack in a small field the hold-up style could become a liability rather than an asset.
WATCH
Ottoman's redistribution to midfield on the map signals that he is racing out of his natural hold-up role; watch whether Jack Callan elects to drop him back to his preferred position regardless, which would leave him needing a much more demanding pace than Mountbatten is likely to set.
NOTE
Sahm Naif is unproven beyond 10f and steps up significantly in trip — watch whether Ray Dawson settles him in the first half of the race, as any early exuberance on unfamiliar ground could leave him empty in the final two furlongs where the race is likely to be decided.
NOTE
The going report confirms good-to-firm conditions for the 3:34, firmer than the nominal GOOD tag — horses wearing headgear (Robusto: hood; Mountbatten: hood; Al Maslool: hood; Sahm Naif: hood) may react differently to the faster surface, and any horse showing signs of being unsettled early on good-to-firm deserves attention.
4:09 — Dave Myers Memorial - I'm Having A Dave Day Fillies' Handicap Stakes
1m · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Spiritoftheblues likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Spiritoftheblues led, as the map showed.
Tamzan won at 3.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Spiritoftheblues
Prominent · 1
Kaori
Midfield · 1
Tamzan
Hold Up · 2
CancelledVenetian Sky
Spiritoftheblues is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-runner field and, with no rival likely to contest the lead aggressively, she should dictate at a controlled, sustainable tempo around Leicester's flat mile. Kaori is the only other prominent-style runner and is more likely to track than challenge for the lead, meaning the fractions will be set by one horse without meaningful pressure. The remaining trio — Cancelled, Venetian Sky, and Tamzan — are all hold-up types by nature, though Tamzan is a redistributed runner who, as a true hold-up horse, is unlikely to secure the midfield slot the map assigns and will race further back than shown. A single uncontested front-runner setting a measured pace on Good to Firm ground over a flat mile creates a race that fundamentally favours closers with a sharp turn of foot — hold-up horses who can produce a sustained late run into the straight — provided the pace is honest enough to see them home, which one sole leader at this level is not guaranteed to provide.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Spiritoftheblues Controls Cleanly
70% probability
If Spiritoftheblues leads throughout at a controlled tempo and the hold-up horses cannot generate enough momentum from the back.
Spiritoftheblues dictates every yard at a modest gallop on fast ground, and the small field means no rival can manufacture a stronger pace to stretch her; she conserves energy and quickens when challenged entering the straight.
SpiritofthebluesKaoriCancelledTamzan
B
Hold-Up Types Pounce Late
16% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to soften Spiritoftheblues and the closers produce decisive late runs.
Cancelled, with the most experience at the trip and solid similar-going form, and Venetian Sky, handled by William Haggas whose runners carry intent fresh at this grade, both have the class to finish powerfully if the front-runner has done enough work.
CancelledVenetian SkyTamzanKaori
C
Kaori Outstays From Tracking
9% probability
If Kaori settles just behind Spiritoftheblues, produces a smooth challenge two furlongs out and the hold-up runners fail to close.
Kaori's consistent placed form at shorter trips suggests she handles pace-pressure well, and a front-two tactical scenario suits a horse whose headgear (p) indicates she can race alertly and maintain concentration over a mile.
KaoriSpiritofthebluesCancelledVenetian Sky
D
Tamzan Lands The Blow
5% probability
If Tamzan's trainer sends her forward of her natural position and she capitalises on the compressed small-field shape with a well-timed run.
Tamzan won over 8f on Good ground and Tregoning's 1/7 fourteen-day strike rate is a lively stat, but her true hold-up profile means this scenario requires her to race against type or find the pace unexpectedly collapse; the probability is low precisely because the redistribution signals that role is compromised.
TamzanCancelledVenetian SkyKaori
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Spiritoftheblues — watch whether she is allowed to dictate without pressure; if Kaori pushes her early, the tempo could quicken sharply and flip the race entirely in favour of closers like Cancelled and Venetian Sky.
WATCH
Tamzan — her true running position will be from the rear, not midfield as mapped; if the pace is slow she could find herself with too much to do in a short straight and the redistribution effectively removes her from the outcome of SCENARIO_A.
WATCH
Cancelled — the 11-day turnaround is sharp; watch the market for signs the O'Neill yard are running her fit versus simply active, as her entire chance depends on a pace strong enough to reel in a front-runner she will be racing well off.
NOTE
Venetian Sky — stepping from 7f to 8f for the first time on turf (her Stall/AW run over 8f doesn't fully count); watch whether she settles cleanly for Fallon, as any greenness over the extra furlong could cost her the late run her hold-up style requires.
NOTE
Going confirmation is Good to Firm for this race despite the header listing Good — fast conditions suit a front-runner gaining an uncontested lead even more than standard Good, reinforcing Spiritoftheblues' positional advantage.
4:44 — ADS Handicap Stakes
6f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Lead contested: Ray Mon Dough v Percy's StarHISTORIC
How it ran
Nuevo Slovo led; the map had Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star in front.
Ray Mon Dough won at 2.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Ray Mon DoughPercy's Star
Prominent · 2
Evening BluesSea Cookie
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
Art LoverNuevo Slovo
Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star are both confirmed front-runners, and with just six runners over a flat 6f at Leicester on Good to Firm ground, these two will press each other from the stalls, creating a genuinely contested early pace rather than a solo soft lead. Ray Mon Dough has won over this course and distance and brings the higher recent form, while Percy's Star has De Sousa aboard and a win over 5f suggesting she'll want to push on rather than surrender ground. The resulting honest gallop on quick ground over a straight six sets up a race where the pace is real but not suicidal — neither leader is so dominant that they'll steal a canter. This shape marginally favours prominent racers who can track just off the duel and pounce in the final furlong, with hold-up horses needing a strong enough fractions to generate the gap they require; the field is compact enough that Sea Cookie and Evening Blues, sitting just off the pace, are the profiles most likely to benefit from the leaders pressing each other into the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Leaders Battle, Tracker Pounces
62% probability
If Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star press each other genuinely through the first half, setting an honest fractions that begins to tell approaching the final furlong.
The two leaders exhaust each other's reserves while a horse travelling smoothly in third or fourth tracks into the straight with a clear run and cuts them down late; Good to Firm ground rewards those who conserve energy through the middle portion rather than burning it at the front.
Sea CookieEvening BluesArt LoverRay Mon Dough
B
Front Runner Stays On
18% probability
If one of the two leaders — most likely Ray Mon Dough — gets a soft end to the early duel and finds the other backing off, allowing a controlled solo lead from the halfway point.
With the pace regulated and no sustained pressing in the back straight, the leader gets into a rhythm and simply has too much ground to make up on; a flat track with quick ground offers no hiding place for closers who need a strong pace.
Ray Mon DoughPercy's StarSea CookieArt Lover
C
Closers Storm Late
12% probability
If the early pace between Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star is genuinely fierce and the leaders tie each other up completely before the two-furlong pole.
The fractions collapse the leading duo leaving hold-up horses Art Lover and Nuevo Slovo with daylight to close into; Cieren Fallon's positional intelligence on Art Lover becomes a significant asset if the finish truly opens up.
Art LoverNuevo SlovoSea CookieEvening Blues
D
Pace Fizzles, Messy Race
8% probability
If neither front-runner commits fully and the early gallop is slower than expected, creating a muddled tactical affair at 6f.
A lack of rhythm causes the field to bunch approaching the straight, producing a wide-open scramble where positional luck and draw matter as much as ability; this scenario is unlikely given two genuine speed horses in the line-up.
Percy's StarRay Mon DoughEvening BluesSea Cookie
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ray Mon Dough and Percy's Star will fight for the early lead — watch whether either blinks in the first furlong, because whoever controls the pace dictates the entire race shape.
WATCH
Sea Cookie's form string shows 0 wins from the last five runs yet includes two recent 6f wins on Good — check whether those wins are current-season form or earlier; if the horse is returning to form this is a major player, if the string reflects a slide it is not.
WATCH
Nuevo Slovo is 69 days absent with a trainer who has sent out only one runner in the past fortnight — monitor the market move and paddock condition, as a flat-track 6f on quick ground gives little margin for a horse not fully tuned.
NOTE
Art Lover holds a healthy record on similar going (four runs, two places) but Cieren Fallon will need a genuinely strong pace from the front-runners to manufacture a winning run from off the pace over this trip — if the pace is modest, the hold-up position becomes a liability.
5:19 — Leicestershire And Rutland Freemasons Charity LRFC Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Ricardo Phillips likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ricardo Phillips led, as the map showed.
Ricardo Phillips won at 2.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ricardo Phillips
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
KameelHachimanClipsham NobleRead All About It
Hold Up · 1
Pisanello
Ricardo Phillips is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this six-runner field, redistributed to the front because no natural front-runner exists — his true style is hold-up, meaning the pace he sets will be measured and controlled rather than pressured or genuine, creating a falsely-run, strung-out gallop over the 1m2f on good-to-firm Leicester ground. With no horse capable of genuinely pushing him from the front, the fractions are likely to be even and conservative in the first half of the race, leaving a strong premium on the ability to quicken off a slow pace in the straight. This race shape overwhelmingly favours horses with a sharp turn of foot who can travel prominently or switch on late — notably Pisanello, who has been in scintillating recent form over similar trips and going, and Clipsham Noble, whose course-and-distance profile aligns well. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Kameel, Hachiman, Clipsham Noble and Read All About It are all genuine hold-up horses shuffled forward on the map; Pisanello is most likely to command its natural position and exploit the modest pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steady Pace, Late Quicken
63% probability
If Ricardo Phillips sets a conservative tempo unchallenged, bunching the field and triggering a sprint finish in the final two furlongs.
The controlled gallop plays into the hands of horses with a genuine finishing kick, and those who have settled near the pace without expending energy will have most left to give.
PisanelloClipsham NobleRicardo PhillipsHachiman
B
Prominent Duo Kick Clear
17% probability
If Ricardo Phillips and Pisanello both travel prominently and kick decisively from two furlongs out, leaving the hold-up horses with too much to do.
A front-two breakaway on this flat track becomes near-impossible to reel in late when the closers are stuck racing out of their natural hold-up role.
PisanelloRicardo PhillipsClipsham NobleKameel
C
Hold-Up Horses Swamp Field
12% probability
If the pace is fast enough to string the field out and genuine hold-up horses get a strong gallop to aim at in the final quarter-mile.
Kameel or Hachiman would need the race run to suit their true rear-of-field style, but given Ricardo Phillips is not a natural front-runner, the required gallop is unlikely to materialise.
KameelHachimanClipsham NobleRead All About It
D
Chaos, No Clear Pace
8% probability
If Ricardo Phillips declines to lead and the field idles in a muddled group with no horse willing to commit, creating a race decided by luck and position.
A truly pace-less affair over 1m2f on a flat track becomes a lottery, with the most experienced jockey or widest-drawn horse potentially stealing it on the nod.
PisanelloClipsham NobleRicardo PhillipsHachiman
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pisanello's recent hat-trick of wins on good ground at similar trips makes him the form anchor — watch whether Conor Whiteley slots him in behind Ricardo Phillips immediately and times his run, as any delay in finding clear air in a six-runner sprint finish could cost him.
WATCH
Ricardo Phillips is not a natural front-runner — watch the first furlong to see if he genuinely commits to the lead or drifts back, because if he fails to lead, this race could collapse into a slow-motion crawl that unsettles all tempo-dependent runners.
WATCH
Clipsham Noble is the most interesting hold-up horse in the field given his two wins on this ground over this trip — watch whether Liam Wright (5) can find cover early and position him to challenge in the final two furlongs rather than getting stranded wide.
NOTE
The going report confirms Good to Firm for this race despite the headline card showing Good — the faster surface rewards horses with a clean action and penalises those who need cut, so watch for any pre-race market moves reflecting ground suitability concerns.
NOTE
With five of six runners returning from 18+ days off (and Read All About It off 78 days), fitness is a collective question — watch the paddock for any horses who look less than fully wound up, as the trainer strike-rates suggest some are better-prepared than others.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.