Archive›Leopardstown · 10 May 2026

Leopardstown

10 May 2026 · 8 races

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1:20 — FITZ AGRIPLANT Maiden

7f · Good · MDN · 10 runners

Goomah likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Halon Bay and Gilts led; the map had Goomah in front.

Halon Bay won at 11.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Goomah

Prominent · 1

Halon Bay

Midfield · 5

Valentino EclipseCaislean Ni CuanGiltsConnecteoThreebiggulps

Hold Up · 3

KhafarCarmel ValleyCosmic Funk

Goomah is the standout early pace angle, likely to lead uncontested with her prominent style and previous front-running tendencies. The lack of other natural pace pressers means she can dictate comfortable fractions through the early stages at Leopardstown's 7f trip. Behind her, the prominent runners Halon Bay will sit close, while the majority including Valentino Eclipse, Khafar, Connecteo, Cosmic Funk and Threebiggulps will settle towards the rear. This sets up perfectly for hold-up horses who can finish strongly, as the lack of pace pressure allows closers to unleash their best finish in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Setup

60% probability

If Goomah sets uncontested fractions and the field remains bunched turning for home

The lack of early pace allows hold-up horses to time their runs perfectly, with stamina and class telling in the final 2f. Quality closers with tactical speed will sweep past the tiring leader.

Valentino EclipseKhafarCaislean Ni CuanCarmel Valley

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Goomah gets away with very easy fractions and kicks clear turning in

Her class advantage combined with a perfect tactical scenario allows her to build an unassailable lead. The closers are left with too much to do despite the moderate early pace.

GoomahHalon BayValentino EclipseKhafar

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If the early pace is so slow that it becomes a sprint finish from the 2f pole

The race becomes purely about who has the most natural speed rather than stamina, favoring horses with early pace who can quicken. Those settling too far back get caught flat-footed.

Halon BayGoomahCosmic FunkCarmel Valley

Newcomer Surprise

5% probability

If one of the lightly-raced runners shows significant improvement from their debut runs

Hidden ability emerges in the testing Leopardstown finish, with connections having worked on debut weaknesses. Experience proves less important than natural talent.

Caislean Ni CuanValentino EclipseGiltsKhafar

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Goomah returning from 226-day layoff - watch for signs of ring-rustiness or fitness concerns in preliminary

WATCH

Valentino Eclipse and Caislean Ni Cuan both making debuts - market moves will indicate stable confidence levels

WATCH

Several hold-up horses including Connecteo and Cosmic Funk have shown fade-in-finish patterns recently

NOTE

Wayne Lordan's positioning of Goomah in the early stages will dictate the entire pace scenario

NOTE

Watch for any late market support for the Stack newcomer Valentino Eclipse given stable's 6f juvenile record

1:55 — Captain Dara Fitzpatrick Memorial Maiden

1m4f · Good · MDN · 8 runners

Cannes likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Antigua led; the map had Cannes in front.

Cannes won at 1.80 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cannes

Prominent · 2

AlmazannAntigua

Midfield · 3

DunmoreCount BezukhovGlen Echo

Hold Up · 2

Mighty WaveAmethyst Stone

Cannes appears the only confirmed early leader in this small field, likely to dictate terms from the front without serious pressure. Almazann and Antigua may track in behind as prominent racers, but neither showed urgency to lead in recent runs. The moderate pace setup will allow Cannes to control fractions and potentially kick clear, while the two newcomers Count Bezukhov and Dunmore remain complete unknowns tactically. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace, as there's insufficient early speed to create a strong gallop that would suit hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Cannes Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Cannes gets an easy lead and dictates moderate fractions uncontested.

The Joseph O'Brien runner can kick clear turning for home with stamina reserves intact, making full use of his front-running style. Almazann's prominent style gives him the best chance of chasing down any breakaway from his tracking position.

CannesAlmazannCount BezukhovDunmore

Newcomer Spring Surprise

30% probability

If Count Bezukhov or Dunmore shows immediate pace and class on debut.

The pedigrees suggest both newcomers have serious ability, and if either breaks smartly they could utilise the weak pace to establish position. Their fresh legs and potential class edge could prove decisive over these exposed maidens.

Count BezukhovDunmoreCannesAlmazann

Late Closer Benefits

15% probability

If the early pace becomes even slower than expected creating a sprint finish.

A crawling pace would negate Cannes's front-running advantage and bring stamina types into play. Mighty Wave showed staying-on ability last time and could benefit from a truly-run finish over this longer trip.

Mighty WaveAlmazannCannesCount Bezukhov

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If Cannes fails to lead or encounters trouble, leaving no genuine pace-setter.

Without Cannes's confirmed front-running, this becomes a messy tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial. The race could develop into a stop-start affair favouring horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina.

AntiguaCount BezukhovDunmoreCannes

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Count Bezukhov's market moves and early positioning - any strong support or immediate pace-showing suggests serious debut intent from the O'Brien stable.

WATCH

Monitor if Cannes gets the expected uncontested lead - any early pressure could compromise his stamina reserves for the finish.

WATCH

Check Dunmore's early market movement and paddock appearance as first-timer with strong middle-distance pedigree from quiet stable.

NOTE

Observe Almazann's settling pattern - needs to track the pace closely rather than get too far back given the likely moderate gallop.

NOTE

Watch for any late money on Mighty Wave if the pace looks slow - his hold-up style could benefit from a sprint finish.

2:30 — Al Shira'aa Racing "Mutamakina" Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares)

7f · Good · G3 · 10 runners

Signora to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

City Of Memphis and California Dreamer led; the map had Signora in front.

City Of Memphis won at 2.75 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Signora

Prominent · 4

Carla RidgeCity Of MemphisQuebecDuckadilly

Midfield · 2

FregadaMallavelly

Hold Up · 3

SnellenPrincess ChildCalifornia Dreamer

Signora will lead from the gates with no early pressure, setting a comfortable rhythm in what should be an even gallop. City Of Memphis, Carla Ridge, Quebec and Duckadilly all want prominent positions, creating congestion and traffic problems turning for home when the pace lifts. The real danger comes from the hold-up horses - Snellen, Princess Child, California Dreamer and Fregada - who can use their pace late if given racing room. This race shape strongly favours patient, hold-up runners who can deliver finishing kicks when the prominent runners start to tie up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent congestion creates traffic problems and the pace stays even through halfway

The leaders get swamped by late-running types who saved ground and energy. Snellen and Princess Child are perfectly positioned to exploit the tactical advantage.

SnellenPrincess ChildCalifornia DreamerFregada

Prominent Runner Escapes

25% probability

If one of the handy runners can slip the field turning for home before the hold-up horses get organized

City Of Memphis or Carla Ridge could steal a decisive advantage if they avoid the traffic jam. Their class tells once clear.

City Of MemphisCarla RidgeQuebecDuckadilly

Strong Early Pace

12% probability

If Signora goes too fast early or gets pressured by the prominent group chasing

The race becomes a sprint finish where the best horse on the day wins regardless of position. Princess Child's Group 3 form makes her dangerous.

Princess ChildCity Of MemphisSnellenCalifornia Dreamer

Signora Wire-To-Wire

8% probability

If the leader can dictate fractions and the prominent runners fail to organize a serious challenge

The 3-year-old gets an easy lead and kicks clear when the pressure comes. Her recent 7f wins suggest she can handle this class jump.

SignoraCity Of MemphisCarla RidgePrincess Child

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems in the home straight when City Of Memphis, Carla Ridge, Quebec and Duckadilly all converge from prominent positions

WATCH

Monitor if Signora gets pressured early by the prominent group as she needs to dictate her own fractions

NOTE

Check how quickly Snellen travels into contention given her 238-day layoff but strong historical course form

WATCH

Watch for Princess Child getting a clear run as she has the form to win this if getting racing room late

NOTE

Observe if California Dreamer can reproduce her Irish 1000 Guineas second form after disappointing follow-ups

3:05 — Porsche In Support Of Breast Cancer Ireland Amethyst Stakes (Listed Race)

1m · Good · LST · 8 runners

Alcantor likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Alcantor and Lord Massusus led, as the map showed.

Catalina Delcarpio won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alcantor

Prominent · 2

MutasarrefExcellent Believe

Midfield · 3

Catalina DelcarpioMississippi RiverLord Massusus

Hold Up · 2

Omni ManTokenomics

Alcantor is the only confirmed front-runner in this small field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace without pressure from the prominent runners Excellent Believe, Mutasarref, and Catalina Delcarpio who are likely to track behind. The hold-up horses Lord Massusus, Omni Man, and Tokenomics will need the pace to be strong enough to set up their finishing kicks, but with just one leader, the tempo may be too modest. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the lone leader and strike in the straight, with the front-runner also holding chances if the pace stays controlled.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Dominance

45% probability

If Alcantor sets an uncontested lead with the prominently-raced horses settling behind

The modest gallop allows the leader to stay strong while prominent runners get first run on the lone pacesetter. Hold-up horses find insufficient pace to wind up effectively from the back.

AlcantorExcellent BelieveMutasarrefCatalina Delcarpio

Prominent Pounce

35% probability

If the prominent quartet applies enough pressure to soften up Alcantor's kick

Excellent Believe, Mutasarref or Catalina Delcarpio get ideal trips tracking the leader before striking decisively. The controlled pace still doesn't suit the hold-up brigade but allows prominent runners to time their moves perfectly.

Excellent BelieveMutasarrefCatalina DelcarpioMississippi River

Hold-Up Rally

12% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely testing with prominent runners pushing forward

A stronger gallop sets up the race for Lord Massusus, Omni Man or Tokenomics to produce their best finishing efforts. The increased pace plays into the hands of horses that need something to aim at in the closing stages.

Lord MassususTokenomicsOmni ManExcellent Believe

Front-Runner Wire Job

8% probability

If Alcantor gets completely uncontested fractions and the field settles too far back

The leader maintains enough in reserve to hold off all challengers despite their late charges. Prominent runners leave their moves too late while hold-up horses have too much ground to make up.

AlcantorMississippi RiverExcellent BelieveMutasarref

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Alcantor could steal this if the pace becomes too conservative and nobody challenges the leader early enough

WATCH

Lord Massusus and the other hold-up horses may struggle if the pace stays modest with just one leader

NOTE

Excellent Believe's prominent style and recent form make him well-suited to this likely race shape

WATCH

Mississippi River needs to overcome a disappointing last run but has course form and Aidan O'Brien's string improving

NOTE

Watch for any early pressure on Alcantor from the prominent runners as this will determine the pace scenario

3:40 — Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3)

1m2f · Good · G3 · 5 runners

James J Braddock to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

James J Braddock won at 10.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

James J Braddock

Prominent · 2

Pierre BonnardEndorsement

Midfield · 2

ShaihaanStraight Up

Hold Up · 0

None

James J Braddock will dictate terms as the sole confirmed leader in this small field, setting a steady rhythm without pressure from fellow front-runners. The prominent runners Pierre Bonnard, Endorsement and Shaihaan will track within striking distance, while Straight Up sits closest. With no genuine pace pressure early, the tempo will be measured through the first mile before quickening from the 2f pole. This tactical setup strongly favours the prominent racers who can position handily behind the leader and have enough tactical speed to respond when the race develops.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Pair Dominate

45% probability

If the measured early pace allows the class horses to travel smoothly in behind James J Braddock

Pierre Bonnard and Endorsement benefit most from their superior ratings and tactical positioning, with both able to quicken off the steady gallop. The Aidan O'Brien pair have the class edge and ideal racing room to settle this between them.

Pierre BonnardEndorsementShaihaanJames J Braddock

Braddock Controls Throughout

30% probability

If James J Braddock's uncontested lead allows him to dictate fractions that suit his running style perfectly

The Joseph O'Brien runner can utilise his superior fitness edge and tactical advantage to kick clear approaching the final furlong. His stamina-laden pedigree and front-running style become decisive assets in the testing final stages.

James J BraddockPierre BonnardEndorsementShaihaan

Shaihaan Springs Surprise

15% probability

If the Good going plays more testing than expected and Shaihaan's heavy ground form advantage becomes relevant

The Donnacha O'Brien runner's proven ability in softer conditions gives him the edge as others struggle with the underfoot conditions. His recent Dundalk form with Pierre Bonnard looks stronger in this context.

ShaihaanPierre BonnardJames J BraddockStraight Up

Straight Up Ambush

10% probability

If the early pace proves even steadier than expected, setting up a sprint finish that suits hold-up horses

Straight Up's proven turn of foot from off the pace becomes the decisive weapon in a slowly-run affair. The headgear and extended break could have him primed for a bold effort at rewarding odds.

Straight UpPierre BonnardEndorsementShaihaan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

James J Braddock's early fractions will determine if his class deficit can be overcome by tactical advantage

WATCH

Pierre Bonnard's settling early will indicate if his class rating translates to tactical dominance

NOTE

Straight Up's position turning for home reveals if the pace has been steady enough for his finishing kick

WATCH

Endorsement's response to pressure will show if recent consistent form can translate to Group success

NOTE

Shaihaan's travelling order indicates whether the going is playing as testing as his best form suggests

4:15 — "It's Family Day At Leopardstown" Fillies Maiden

1m2f · Good · MDN · 11 runners

Zitkala Sa to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Johanna Walsh led; the map had Zitkala Sa in front.

Johanna Walsh won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Zitkala Sa

Prominent · 3

BeatificPink CoralJohanna Walsh

Midfield · 4

Wickedly WoottonPath To PeaceMy First RoseMadam Justice

Hold Up · 3

Jerpoint AbbeyBelievedWedding

Zitkala Sa will be the sole confirmed early leader in this 11-runner fillies' maiden, setting what should be a sustainable gallop without early pressure. The prominent runners Beatific, Pink Coral and Johanna Walsh will track behind, while the hold-up horses Believed, Wedding and Jerpoint Abbey will need the pace to collapse late. With only one natural front-runner and several prominent types content to sit handy, this sets up as a moderate early pace that should quicken significantly from the 3f pole. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and strike when the pace lifts, rather than hold-up horses who will need everything to fall right.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

60% probability

If the moderate early pace allows prominent runners to position perfectly behind Zitkala Sa

The likes of Beatific, Pink Coral and Johanna Walsh get ideal tracking positions and have too much tactical speed for the hold-up horses when the race develops. The sustained gallop from 3f out suits their profiles perfectly.

BeatificJohanna WalshMy First RosePink Coral

Debutant Surprise Package

20% probability

If one of the well-bred newcomers Madam Justice, My First Rose, Path To Peace or Wickedly Wootton shows significant improvement

The moderate pace suits a newcomer with natural ability who can sit prominent and quicken. Their lack of exposed form becomes an advantage in a race where the exposed runners have limitations.

My First RoseWickedly WoottonMadam JusticePath To Peace

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

12% probability

If Zitkala Sa sets a stronger pace than expected or the prominent runners go too hard tracking her

The increased early tempo sets up perfectly for Believed, Wedding or Jerpoint Abbey to come from off the pace. Their late kick proves decisive as the early leaders weaken.

BelievedJerpoint AbbeyWeddingMadam Justice

Front Runner Survives

8% probability

If Zitkala Sa gets completely uncontested fractions and the field fails to organize a proper challenge

Despite her moderate form, Zitkala Sa gets such an easy time in front that she can repel the late challenges. The lack of early pressure allows her to save enough for the finish.

Zitkala SaBeatificPink CoralJohanna Walsh

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Zitkala Sa gets completely uncontested fractions in the first half-mile which could allow her to steal it

WATCH

Any of the four debutants Madam Justice, My First Rose, Path To Peace or Wickedly Wootton showing market confidence

WATCH

Beatific and Pink Coral both being strongly supported as the most proven prominent runners

NOTE

Jerpoint Abbey's transition from bumpers to flat racing and how she handles the pace

NOTE

The positioning of hold-up horses Believed and Wedding if the early pace is genuinely moderate

4:50 — Leopardstown Golf, Padel, Range Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Lead contested: Diamond Exchange v Spanish RisingHISTORIC

How it ran

Kilcrea Rock and Sonoran and Ob La Di and Ben Lawers led; the map had Diamond Exchange and Spanish Rising in front.

Truth Be Told won at 9.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Diamond ExchangeSpanish Rising

Prominent · 4

Railwayview LadyGlyndwrSonoranOb La Di

Midfield · 3

GenoahCandleford GreenKilcrea Rock

Hold Up · 4

AkechetaBen LawersDark SummitTruth Be Told

Diamond Exchange and Spanish Rising will engage from the off as both are natural front runners with recent form showing early speed. Diamond Exchange looks the more resolute of the pair having won at this venue on the all-weather and should dictate terms through honest fractions. The substantial hold-up contingent including Akecheta, Truth Be Told, Ben Lawers, and Genoah will be patient in rear, while prominent racers like Sonoran and Ob La Di settle just behind the pace. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can sit off the genuine early pace and finish with one sustained run.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Brigade Strikes

55% probability

If Diamond Exchange and Spanish Rising maintain honest gallop without collapsing

The patient tactics of the rear division pay dividends as they sweep past tiring leaders in final furlong. Akecheta and Truth Be Told benefit most from their preferred waiting style combined with the guaranteed pace.

Truth Be ToldAkechetaGenoahBen Lawers

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If Diamond Exchange gets soft lead and quickens approaching final furlong

Diamond Exchange capitalizes on tactical speed having settled better than Spanish Rising early on. The hold-up horses leave their challenge too late on the testing 1m2f trip.

Diamond ExchangeGlyndwrSpanish RisingRailwayview Lady

Prominent Racers Profit

12% probability

If early pace collapses and becomes messy crawl

Horses positioned prominently like Ob La Di and Sonoran avoid trouble of slow pace that catches out both leaders and hold-up horses. They can quicken most effectively from their tracking positions.

Ob La DiSonoranRailwayview LadyGlyndwr

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If both front runners fade badly leaving no pace on

The race becomes a sprint from 3f out benefiting those with natural finishing speed regardless of position. Dark Summit's fade tendency becomes less relevant in such circumstances.

Candleford GreenKilcrea RockDark SummitGenoah

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Diamond Exchange getting uncontested lead as Spanish Rising fails to engage - removes pace advantage for hold-up horses

WATCH

Truth Be Told and Akecheta both held up in same position creating traffic problems in run-in

NOTE

Candleford Green and Railwayview Lady both returning from 200+ day breaks affecting fitness levels

WATCH

Dark Summit getting prominent position early as his fade tendency becomes more pronounced over this trip

NOTE

Weather conditions affecting good ground designation as consistent going reports suggest no change expected

5:20 — Breast Cancer Ireland Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Bay Of Stars likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Darius Dark won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bay Of Stars

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

ServareDarius DarkPass The BuckDreoilinDivine Believer

Hold Up · 3

EniacKeepsgettingbetterChestnut Palace

Bay Of Stars will dictate the pace from prominent position with no genuine front-runners to pressure him, creating a sustainable tempo through the middle stages. The large field of hold-up horses including Eniac, Servare, and Darius Dark will track behind in a compressed pack. With good ground conditions over 1m4f at Leopardstown, this sets up perfectly for a sprint finish where positioning and timing become crucial. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks who can quicken late off the steady pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Late Kick Dominance

60% probability

If the pace remains steady and the field stays bunched turning for home

Bay Of Stars' modest pace allows the hold-up brigade to travel comfortably before unleashing finishing speed. The good ground and trip favour horses with turn of foot like Eniac and Servare who can quicken decisively.

EniacServareDarius DarkDreoilin

Bay Of Stars Wire Job

20% probability

If Bay Of Stars kicks clear turning in and the closers respond too late

His recent Dundalk win suggests improved stamina and he gets first run on the field. The hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up despite their superior ratings.

Bay Of StarsKeepsgettingbetterDivine BelieverChestnut Palace

Pace Collapse Scramble

12% probability

If Bay Of Stars weakens badly and creates a sprint from the 2f pole

Multiple hold-up horses converge simultaneously in a blanket finish where race positioning proves decisive. Jockey judgement becomes paramount as traffic problems develop in the large field.

Darius DarkPass The BuckDreoilinDivine Believer

Prominent Tracker Pounce

8% probability

If one of the hold-up horses positions closer to the pace than usual

A tactical switch catches the deep closers napping while avoiding Bay Of Stars' kickback. This suits a horse like Eniac or Servare if connections adopt more aggressive tactics.

EniacServareKeepsgettingbetterBay Of Stars

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bay Of Stars breaking clear turning in could steal this if the hold-up horses are caught napping by the steady pace

WATCH

Servare and Pass The Buck both showing fading tendencies in recent runs which could prove costly in a competitive finish

NOTE

Eniac and Dreoilin both represent trainers with excellent recent form and could benefit from the expected strong pace

WATCH

The large field of hold-up horses could create traffic problems in the straight affecting several chances

NOTE

Divine Believer stepping up markedly in trip for the first time with breeding questions over the extended distance

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 10 May 2026.

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