Archive›Leopardstown · 12 April 2026

Leopardstown

12 April 2026 · 7 races

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2:10 — Look De Vega At Ballylinch Stud Fillies Maiden

1m · Good To Soft · MDN · 16 runners

Institute likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Justiciar and Institute and Lamberella led, as the map showed.

Skydance won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Institute

Prominent · 3

Forty Six APurelySands Castle

Midfield · 7

Rodeo BluesElmakayaCromac QuayBeatificGimme EnergyGrey IntentionsLamberella

Hold Up · 5

Hiltons PassSkydanceThundering OnJusticiarIndomiknow

Institute stands alone as the only confirmed front runner in this 16-runner maiden, likely to set a comfortable pace with Forty Six A, Sands Castle, and Purely the only other prominent types. The large field will create a strung-out race with most runners settling in midfield or hold-up positions including the higher-rated Skydance, Thundering On, and the debutant newcomers. With no pace pressure on Institute early, this tactical setup strongly favors the hold-up horses who can finish late down the outside of the large field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Institute sets uncontested fractions and the pace becomes pedestrian

The large field bunches up and creates traffic problems for prominent runners, while the hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash late runs down the outside. Skydance and Thundering On are ideally positioned to capitalize.

SkydanceThundering OnJusticiarIndomiknow

Prominent Pressure Creates Pace

25% probability

If Forty Six A and Purely join Institute in a genuine pace battle early

The increased tempo stretches the field and sets up a proper test, allowing horses with tactical pace like the debutant Elmakaya or Beatific to strike in the final furlong. The front runners fade under pressure.

ElmakayaBeatificCromac QuayRodeo Blues

Institute Wires the Field

12% probability

If the lone pace-setter maintains a steady rhythm and kicks clear turning in

With no sustained pressure throughout, Institute gets the perfect tactical trip and proves too strong for the hold-up brigade who are left with too much to do. The prominent runners fill the frame.

InstituteForty Six APurelySkydance

Messy Pace Benefits Outsider

8% probability

If traffic problems and a stop-start pace create chaos in the straight

The established runners get inconvenienced by the large field dynamics while a lightly-raced newcomer like Rodeo Blues or Cromac Quay gets a clean run at the right time. Fresh legs prevail over experience.

Rodeo BluesCromac QuayBeatificElmakaya

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Institute must be watched for market support despite 163-day absence as the lone pace-setter

WATCH

Skydance carries the strongest form rating but 210-day layoff is a significant concern in competitive maiden

NOTE

Beatific and Elmakaya represent top connections making debuts and should be monitored for betting moves

NOTE

Traffic problems are likely given the 16-runner field size and Leopardstown's configuration

WATCH

Several O'Brien runners (Institute, Purely, Beatific) may not all be trying to win with stable having multiple chances

2:45 — Sunday 10th May Leopardstown Family Day Handicap

1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 23 runners

Romantic War to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Comfort Line led; the map had Romantic War in front.

Launch Time won at 9.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 20 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Romantic War

Prominent · 3

Sedro WoolleySearcogRock Etoile

Midfield · 12

BelievethHeart Of DarknessLaunch TimeCleopatra's NeedleGobi StarAlto SaxBel EspoirHale BoppMy Girl RobynMiss AmericanaClifftopBang Po

Hold Up · 7

RampageMoonlight MollyLand Of The GiantsComfort LineDarwin's AngelSwift CharmChavajod

Romantic War is the sole confirmed front runner in this large field and will face no early pressure, allowing him to dictate a steady gallop through the opening stages. With several prominent racers like Sedro Woolley and Searcog likely to track him, but most runners adopting hold-up tactics, the pace will be moderate rather than searching. The large field of mainly hold-up horses will create congestion in the final two furlongs as they all look for racing room simultaneously. This sustainable pace followed by a cavalry charge finish clearly favours horses with turn of foot who can pick their way through traffic - the hold-up brigade holds all the aces here.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Traffic Nightmare

45% probability

If the 20+ hold-up horses bunch together turning for home creating severe traffic problems

The moderate early pace leaves too much to do for those caught behind runners, but those with the best turn of foot who get clear runs will prevail. Launch Time and Miss Americana have shown the class to win from these tactics.

Launch TimeMiss AmericanaAlto SaxDarwin's Angel

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If one of the prominent racers can secure an ideal position tracking Romantic War and avoid the backmarker scramble

Searcog or Sedro Woolley get first run on the leaders and kick clear before the hold-up horses can organize their challenges. Their forward positions prove crucial in this big field.

SearcogSedro WoolleyRampageCleopatra's Needle

Lone Leader Lasts

15% probability

If Romantic War maintains his advantage and the chasing pack fails to mount a serious challenge due to traffic issues

The moderate pace suits the front runner perfectly and he stays on grimly while the better horses are stuck behind beaten runners. His 9lb penalty becomes irrelevant if he avoids pressure.

Romantic WarBelievethComfort LineHeart of Darkness

Outsider Finds Daylight

10% probability

If a well-handicapped hold-up horse gets a dream run through while the fancied runners hit trouble

My Girl Robyn or Clifftop benefit from their low weights and Andrew Slattery's strong form to strike at big odds. The race falls apart tactically for the market leaders.

My Girl RobynClifftopHale BoppSwift Charm

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Romantic War runs yesterday at Gowran and backs up here 24 hours later - stamina and recovery a major concern

WATCH

Miss Americana showed vastly improved form at Gowran on Thursday and could back up that career-best effort

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe with 20+ hold-up horses in this big field - draw and racing luck crucial

NOTE

Andrew Slattery stable running My Girl Robyn is in red-hot form recently - market support would be significant

NOTE

Several horses carry headgear changes including tongue-ties on Searcog, Rock Etoile, and Swift Charm

3:20 — Leopardstown Members Handicap

1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 18 runners

Walhaan to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Vega's Muse and Faoladh led; the map had Walhaan in front.

Vega's Muse won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Walhaan

Prominent · 5

Va Va VroomSonoranFixationVega's MuseFaoladh

Midfield · 7

Merlin The WizardLoingseoirLittle Miss PBattle BornePallatine HillsGotta Catch'em AllBeat The Devil

Hold Up · 5

SyzygyAnvikaNavagioSpent All Me MoneyMolto Amichi

Walhaan is the only confirmed front runner in this 18-runner field and should get an uncontested lead with Sonoran, Fixation and Vega's Muse likely to settle prominently behind. The pace will be sustainable rather than fierce with no obvious pace pressure, allowing Walhaan to dictate terms through steady fractions. With 13 of the 18 runners having hold-up styles, there will be a massive pack of horses waiting to pounce from the rear over the final 2-3 furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late runs, as they'll benefit from the steady gallop and have tactical positioning advantages in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Walhaan sets steady fractions uncontested through the first half-mile

The sustainable pace allows the large group of hold-up horses to close strongly, with the best-handicapped getting first run on the leaders. Multiple hold-up horses will hit the line together with the strongest stayers prevailing.

Merlin The WizardSyzygyAnvikaLittle Miss P

Prominent Runners Strike

20% probability

If Sonoran or Fixation apply more pace pressure than expected on Walhaan

The increased gallop stretches the field earlier and favours horses positioned just off the pace who can quicken without needing to make up too much ground. The prominent runners get first run before the hold-up brigade arrives.

Vega's MuseFaoladhSonoranFixation

Front Runner Stays Strong

10% probability

If Walhaan gets such soft fractions that he retains enough stamina for the finish

The veteran's experience pays off as he kicks clear approaching the final furlong before the hold-up horses can reach him. His recent course win shows he can still be effective when getting things his own way.

WalhaanSpent All Me MoneyFixationVega's Muse

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If no horse applies any pressure to Walhaan creating crawling fractions

The race becomes a pure sprint finish with 15+ horses still in contention at the furlong pole. The horse with the best turn of foot regardless of position wins in a blanket finish.

Pallatine HillsBeat The DevilMolto AmichiGotta Catch'em All

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Walhaan could get such soft fractions as the only leader that he stays on strongly despite his age

WATCH

Syzygy's heavy ground wins might not translate to good-to-yielding conditions on seasonal return

NOTE

Merlin The Wizard's recent Dundalk second suggests he's returning to form after poor spells

WATCH

Multiple runners having 180+ days off including Molto Amichi and Va Va Vroom may lack fitness

NOTE

The inside draw could help Pallatine Hills secure a good position despite his hold-up style

3:55 — Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings)

7f · Good To Soft · G3 · 11 runners

Lead contested: Flushing Meadows v Iron LilyHISTORIC

How it ran

Dorset led; the map had Flushing Meadows and Iron Lily in front.

Thesecretadversary won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Flushing MeadowsIron Lily

Prominent · 4

Power BlueGeryonDorsetThesecretadversary

Midfield · 3

MumhanWarsawTrojan Warrior

Hold Up · 2

The Publican's SonRedemption Road

Flushing Meadows and Iron Lily will contest the early lead, with Flushing Meadows likely to establish control given Ryan Moore's tactical awareness and the colt's proven ability to dictate from the front. The presence of two genuine front runners should create an honest gallop rather than crawling fractions, with prominent runners like Dorset, Geryon, and Power Blue tracking within striking distance. The pace will be testing but not suicidal, as both leaders have shown they can sustain their efforts. This race shape favours prominent runners who can sit close to the pace and kick in the final two furlongs, as they'll avoid the scramble from the back while not bearing the full brunt of making the running.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runner Pounces

55% probability

If the two leaders set honest but sustainable fractions

Dorset or Geryon can track the pace and unleash superior acceleration in the final furlong when the leaders tire. Their class and proven ability at this trip makes them perfectly positioned to capitalize on ideal tactical positioning.

DorsetGeryonPower BlueThesecretadversary

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Flushing Meadows or Iron Lily gets soft fractions and kicks clear

The leader builds an unassailable advantage in the straight as the field struggles to make up ground on the good to yielding ground. Ryan Moore's tactical nous gives Flushing Meadows the edge in this scenario over Iron Lily.

Flushing MeadowsIron LilyDorsetWarsaw

Hold Up Horse Strikes

15% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and tires the prominent runners

The Publican's Son can utilize his hold up style to sweep past tired horses in the final furlong. His 108 RPR suggests he has the class to capitalize if the race falls apart up front.

The Publican's SonRedemption RoadMumhanTrojan Warrior

Outsider Ambush

5% probability

If chaos unfolds with the leaders going too fast and prominent horses getting hampered

Warsaw or Mumhan can emerge from the pack to steal victory at big odds. Their relative freshness and unproven status at this level makes this the least likely but most rewarding outcome.

WarsawMumhanTrojan WarriorPower Blue

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Flushing Meadows can hang right under pressure which could compromise his chance if the finish gets tight

WATCH

Warsaw returns from long absence with tongue-tie for the first time, market moves will indicate stable confidence levels

NOTE

Iron Lily needs to prove turf effectiveness after Dundalk win, any market drift would be significant given front running role

WATCH

The Publican's Son requires strong early pace to be effective from the rear, watch if the leaders go too steady

NOTE

Power Blue faces step up in class carrying a penalty, any late money would suggest connections fancy their chances

4:25 — Ballylinch Stud Priory Belle Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)

7f · Good To Soft · G3 · 15 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Composing led; the map had Black Caviar Gold and Kensington Lane and Slaney View in front.

True Love won at 4.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Black Caviar GoldKensington LaneSlaney View

Prominent · 6

True LovePivotal AttackMagny CoursSuzie SongsBlanc De BlancWhite Lily

Midfield · 2

River AraAnushka

Hold Up · 4

ComposingCaught U SleepingMayflowerKillashee Warrior

Black Caviar Gold, Kensington Lane, and Slaney View will set a strong gallop from the start, with six prominent runners (True Love, Blanc De Blanc, White Lily, Pivotal Attack, Suzie Songs, Magny Cours) creating significant early congestion. The genuine pace will ensure a true test of stamina over 7f on yielding ground, with the large field likely causing traffic problems turning for home. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and finish with one sustained run, as the strong gallop will set up perfectly for closers with tactical speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If the three leaders maintain a genuine gallop and the prominent brigade gets into a speed duel

The strong pace will perfectly set up the race for closers who can get a clear run in the final 2f. Mayflower, Composing, and Caught U Sleeping are ideally positioned to benefit from this scenario.

ComposingMayflowerCaught U SleepingRiver Ara

Prominent tactical winner

25% probability

If one of the forward horses can secure an uncontested lead while others clash for position

True Love or Suzie Songs could dictate terms and have enough left in the tank to resist late challenges. The class edge would prove decisive in a tactical finish.

True LoveSuzie SongsMagny CoursPivotal Attack

Pace collapses early

12% probability

If the three leaders go too fast early and burn out, leaving a slow middle section

The race becomes a sprint finish where prominent runners with tactical speed can pounce late. This neutralizes the stamina advantage and favours horses with a sharp turn of foot.

Blanc De BlancMagny CoursTrue LovePivotal Attack

Front-runner survives

8% probability

If Black Caviar Gold can establish a clear lead and the chasers fail to organize an effective pursuit

Her proven stamina and recent form suggest she could wire the field if allowed to dictate comfortable fractions. Kensington Lane or Slaney View would need to falter for this scenario.

Black Caviar GoldKensington LaneComposingTrue Love

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Black Caviar Gold and Kensington Lane could set suicidal fractions if they clash for the early lead

WATCH

True Love's market support despite long absence may indicate significant improvement from O'Brien stable

WATCH

Mayflower faces enormous class jump but her style perfectly suits the likely pace scenario

NOTE

Slaney View's recent run could provide fitness edge if the pace becomes truly testing

NOTE

Composing and River Ara represent O'Brien's best chances if the race sets up for hold-up horses

4:55 — P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)

1m2f · Good To Soft · G3 · 9 runners

Lead contested: James J Braddock v South IslandHISTORIC

How it ran

Endorsement and Victory Tip led; the map had James J Braddock and South Island in front.

Christmas Day won at 12.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

James J BraddockSouth Island

Prominent · 4

Pierre BonnardChristmas DayEndorsementShosholoza

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

ItalyA Boy Named SusieVictory Tip

James J Braddock and South Island will contest the early lead, with James J Braddock likely to take charge given his stronger recent form and more progressive profile. The prominent brigade of Pierre Bonnard, Endorsement, Christmas Day and Shosholoza will create significant congestion through the middle stages, setting up potential traffic problems approaching the home turn. The honest gallop should play out steadily rather than turning into a sprint, with the pace likely to strengthen from 3f out as the leaders come under pressure. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses - Italy, A Boy Named Susie and Victory Tip - who can avoid the early scrimmaging and finish powerfully into a solid tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If the prominent pack gets tangled up 3f out and the pace proves honest throughout

The traffic problems allow the clean hold-up runners to sweep past tired leaders. Italy and A Boy Named Susie benefit most from their patient tactics and superior class.

ItalyA Boy Named SusiePierre BonnardChristmas Day

Pierre Bonnard kicks clear

25% probability

If Ryan Moore can secure an unimpeded run from his prominent position

The class horse avoids the traffic and asserts his superiority in the straight. His Zetland form gives him a clear edge over these rivals.

Pierre BonnardItalyChristmas DayA Boy Named Susie

Christmas Day times run perfectly

12% probability

If the 3lb penalty proves manageable and he gets first run from the pack

The course winner knows exactly what's required and his extra furlong experience tells. Wayne Lordan's timing proves decisive from his stalking position.

Christmas DayPierre BonnardItalyEndorsement

Pace collapse aids leaders

8% probability

If both James J Braddock and South Island go too slow early on

The lack of pressure allows a prominent runner to kick clear late without facing a strong finishing burst. The tactical race falls apart for the hold-up horses.

James J BraddockShosholozaPierre BonnardChristmas Day

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

James J Braddock and South Island could go too fast early given both want the lead, setting up a pace collapse

WATCH

Traffic problems developing 3f out as four prominent runners (Pierre Bonnard, Endorsement, Christmas Day, Shosholoza) converge

NOTE

Italy's 183-day break could leave him short of peak fitness despite his superior class and ideal hold-up style

WATCH

Victory Tip faces a massive class jump with minimal experience, making him vulnerable despite his tactical advantage

NOTE

Ryan Moore's positioning of Pierre Bonnard in the first two furlongs will indicate connections' confidence levels

5:25 — Tony Harmon Services Handicap

1m2f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Cape Cod likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cape Cod and Madbadanddangerous led, as the map showed.

Cape Cod won at 4.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cape Cod

Prominent · 2

Marjorie DawExtravagant

Midfield · 3

Cherry Hill GirlMadbadanddangerousAnother Day Done

Hold Up · 2

So Must IPierre Grosse

Cape Cod is the only confirmed front-runner in this small field, likely to set uncontested fractions with the prominent runners Madbadanddangerous, Cherry Hill Girl, and Marjorie Daw content to track rather than challenge early. The pace will be steady rather than searching, with no pressure applied until the home turn when the prominent brigade engage. This controlled tempo over 1m2f sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses Pierre Grosse, So Must I, and Another Day Done to deliver their finishing kicks. The lack of early pace and sustainable gallop strongly favours hold-up runners who can produce late acceleration.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Brigade Strikes

55% probability

If the pace unfolds as steadily as expected with Cape Cod unchallenged early

The lack of early pressure allows hold-up horses to get into perfect striking positions and unleash superior finishing kicks in the final two furlongs. Pierre Grosse, So Must I, and Another Day Done all possess the tactical speed to capitalise on the setup.

So Must IAnother Day DonePierre GrosseCherry Hill Girl

Prominent Horse Sustains

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners can quicken decisively approaching the home turn before the closers get organised

An injection of pace at the right moment stretches the field and prevents the hold-up horses from mounting their trademark late charges. Cherry Hill Girl or Madbadanddangerous could exploit their forward positions to steal a march.

Cherry Hill GirlMadbadanddangerousCape CodExtravagant

Cape Cod Controls Throughout

12% probability

If Cape Cod can dictate a truly sedate pace and has enough left for the finish

The front-runner exploits the lack of early pressure to conserve energy and maintain his kick when challenged, benefiting from Ryan Moore's tactical nous. His make-all victory at Naas suggests he can repeat the tactics successfully.

Cape CodExtravagantMadbadanddangerousSo Must I

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling and turns into a tactical affair with multiple false starts

The race becomes a pure sprint finish where stamina counts for little and tactical positioning everything, potentially suiting the most battle-hardened campaigners. Cherry Hill Girl's recent race fitness could prove decisive in a messy finish.

Cherry Hill GirlSo Must IMadbadanddangerousPierre Grosse

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cape Cod's 183-day layoff could see him weaken in the final furlong if the break has left him short of peak fitness

WATCH

Pierre Grosse has the ideal running style for this race shape but Mrs Harrington's 0/21 recent record suggests preparation issues

NOTE

So Must I's recent Dundalk form over slightly longer suggests he's returning to form at the perfect time for this setup

WATCH

Madbadanddangerous and Cherry Hill Girl both need to quicken decisively at the home turn before the closers get into gear

NOTE

Another Day Done retains the first-time visor that transformed his form and could be the value play in the finish

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 April 2026.

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