Archive›Leopardstown · 12 September 2026

Leopardstown

12 September 2026 · 9 races

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1:35 — Ballylinch Stud Irish EBF Ingabelle Stakes (Listed)

7f · Good · LST · 11 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Snowing led; the map had Blonde Over Blue and Bellesque and Lady Patrona in front.

Maire Rua won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Blonde Over BlueBellesqueLady Patrona

Prominent · 4

IbelieveicanflySnowingShi YangTimeless Tale

Midfield · 2

Miss Cashman HookeMaeda Matsu

Hold Up · 2

Apollo's CometMaire Rua

Blonde Over Blue, Bellesque, and Lady Patrona all carry genuine front-running intentions and will contest the lead from the gates, guaranteeing a strong, searching gallop over Leopardstown's flat 7f on Good ground. With three horses fighting for the early positions, the pace will be honest to strong throughout, placing a premium on stamina and the ability to travel fluidly in a prominent position without expending unnecessary energy in the early exchanges. Timeless Tale, a confirmed prominent runner with a clean profile at this track and trip, is ideally suited to track the pace battle without being embroiled in it, arriving with energy to spend at the critical 2f pole. This race shape strongly favours resolute prominent racers who can settle just off a hot pace and produce a sustained late effort — hold-up types or pure closers are at a disadvantage given the honest gallop is unlikely to produce a true slow-burn collapse. The field also contains more naturally prominent horses than can realistically all secure their preferred slots: Maeda Matsu and Maire Rua are genuine prominent types redistributed rearward on the pace map, and Shi Yang also has prominent pretensions — among these, Maire Rua drawn widest and Maeda Matsu from a low draw are least likely to recover their natural position once three dedicated leaders seize the early fractions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong pace, prominent wins

44% probability

If Blonde Over Blue, Bellesque and Lady Patrona set a true strong gallop and the race is run end-to-end at an honest clip.

The pace battle between the three leaders strings the field out from the first furlong, and the horse who travels smoothly just off the boil arrives with the freshest reserves at the 1f marker; this is the ideal setup for a well-rated prominent type who can quicken once the front-runners crack.

Timeless TaleIbelieveicanflySnowingShi Yang

Pace duel, stamina test

28% probability

If the three front-runners genuinely battle for supremacy, creating an even faster early clip that turns the race into a stamina test from 3f out.

With the pace exaggerated by a three-way duel, all prominent types are tested for resolution and the winner is likely the one with the best finishing attitude over this trip; horses with a pedigree or form pattern suggesting they get further than 7f have an edge.

Timeless TaleMaire RuaLady PatronaBellesque

Front-runner lasts home

16% probability

If one of the three leaders gets a soft lead by breaking fastest and the others fail to press, allowing a solo front-runner to control fractions.

A controlled early clip from a single leader means the pace is not truly punishing and stamina is less of a premium, enabling the front-runner to conserve enough energy to hold on under pressure; Blonde Over Blue with OR 91 and course experience is the most plausible beneficiary if she breaks cleanest.

Blonde Over BlueBellesqueLady PatronaIbelieveicanfly

Closers pounce late

12% probability

If the pace war is exceptionally fierce and burns out all three leaders, creating a vacuum that mid-division horses can exploit in the final furlong.

Apollo's Comet and Maire Rua, though redistributed rearward on the map and not natural hold-up types, could benefit if the race falls apart in front; the caveat is that this scenario requires those horses to race genuinely out of their preferred role, which tempers confidence materially.

Apollo's CometMaire RuaMiss Cashman HookeSnowing

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Blonde Over Blue, Bellesque or Lady Patrona win the early battle for the lead — if all three push hard from the gun, the pace could be extreme and the entire front three may tire, opening the door for Timeless Tale to cruise through.

WATCH

Maire Rua with Colin Keane from draw 11 will need to push forward early to reclaim her natural prominent position — if traffic forces her to settle mid-pack, her chance is significantly compromised despite strong form credentials.

WATCH

Maeda Matsu from draw 3 may attempt to burst forward early and mix it with the leaders despite the redistribution, creating an even more congested early pace scenario — Rory Cleary's tactics from the first furlong are worth monitoring closely.

NOTE

Ibelieveicanfly's headgear flag (h) is noted — Ryan Moore may choose to drop her slightly to track the pace battle rather than be embroiled in it, which would be the tactically astute ride given three horses fighting up front.

NOTE

Snowing's booking of Pierre-Charles Boudot for O'Brien suggests this filly is held in higher regard than her winless record implies — watch her market movement before the off as an indicator of stable confidence.

2:10 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Sovereign Path Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 21 runners

Lead contested: Dorset v BeneventoHISTORIC

How it ran

Carnival Of Light led; the map had Dorset and Benevento in front.

Krasimir won at 8.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

9 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

DorsetBenevento

Prominent · 8

TokenomicsVafortinoExcellent BelieveL L KoulstySindaganMirskyVictory TipHowd'yadoit

Midfield · 5

Collecting CoinCarnival Of LightKrasimirOro BlancoDark Viper

Hold Up · 6

AndabRahmiGleneagle BayFort VegaBooyeaTemperance

Dorset (draw 3, Ryan Moore) and Benevento (draw 18, David Egan) are the two confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead, creating a genuine, honest gallop across 7 furlongs on good ground at Leopardstown — this is not a scenario where pace collapses. With 21 runners and a competitive handicap field, the fractions will be genuine from the jump, and the race is unlikely to set up for a dawdle-and-sprint. That honest pace on a flat track on good ground classically favours horses who can travel prominently just off the speed or produce a sustained late run from midfield — pure hold-up horses who need a stronger-than-honest gallop to generate sufficient gaps are at a slight disadvantage in a field where positions will be congested. This field holds more prominent-minded types than the pace map can accommodate: Krasimir, Collecting Coin, Carnival Of Light, Oro Blanco, and Dark Viper are all natural prominent racers who will find themselves shuffled back from their preferred position, with L L Koulsty and Tokenomics among those most likely to actually secure a berth on the pace; the tactical verdict is that horses able to settle just behind the front two and produce a sustained run in the straight — the prominent-to-midfield profile — are best served by this race shape.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest Pace, Prominent Wins

42% probability

If Dorset and Benevento set a genuine gallop and a prominent racer travels smoothly just off them into the straight.

The two front-runners maintain honest fractions and the prominent horses who secure a real position — L L Koulsty, Tokenomics, Sindagan — are best placed to pounce as the leaders tire in the final furlong. This shape is the dominant one given confirmed pace and good ground, rewarding those who can travel with cover and sustain their run.

L L KoulstySindaganTokenomicsVafortino

Front Two Brave It Out

28% probability

If Dorset or Benevento — or both — show enough class to sustain their lead and the honest gallop fails to expose them.

One of the confirmed front-runners dictates on their own terms once the other fades, converting pace-pressure into a winning advantage rather than a trap; Benevento's recent win over a similar trip and going makes this credible. Dorset with Moore's timing is the alternative, though the form string is less inspiring than Benevento's.

BeneventoDorsetL L KoulstySindagan

Late Closers Capitalise

19% probability

If the pace is fierce enough to burn off the prominent racers and the genuine hold-up horses arrive with a late rattle down the stands rail.

Gleneagle Bay, Fort Vega, and Rahmi have the profiles to benefit if the early fractions are truly punishing, arriving fresh into a tired field. Gleneagle Bay in particular has course and distance form and a low draw to maximise ground saved.

Gleneagle BayFort VegaRahmiAndab

Redistribution Chaos, Upset

11% probability

If the congested midfield breaks in favour of a displaced prominent type who secures better ground than expected and the pace collapses slightly.

Krasimir or Collecting Coin, natural prominent racers pushed to midfield, could outrun their mapped position if the race compresses and gaps appear earlier than expected; Krasimir's consistent placed form (four places from six recent runs) keeps the Strand Scorecard top selection relevant here despite the positional compromise. Carnival Of Light is the wildcard, having won twice on standard ground though Leopardstown good is a different test.

KrasimirCollecting CoinCarnival Of LightOro Blanco

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dorset and Benevento will contest the early lead vigorously — watch for Benevento from draw 18 burning significant energy crossing the field to assert, which could compromise his stamina in the final furlong.

WATCH

L L Koulsty (draw 15) needs Rory Mulligan to find a clear run from a wide draw in a 21-runner field — if he gets shuffled wide or checked entering the straight, his chance is compromised despite strong form credentials.

WATCH

Krasimir is the Scorecard selection but is mapped to midfield due to natural prominent runners crowding the early positions — watch whether Reese Holohan angles forward early to get closer to his true racing position, as this determines whether the selection delivers.

NOTE

With five redistributed prominent types (Krasimir, Collecting Coin, Carnival Of Light, Oro Blanco, Dark Viper) all likely to be further back than they prefer,

2:45 — HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes (Group 1)

1m1f · Good · G1 · 10 runners

5 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nola Soul led; the map had Green Dreamer and Quest For Stars and Victory Speech and Shakespeare and Darkness Falls in front.

Darkness Falls won at 2.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 5

Green DreamerQuest For StarsVictory SpeechShakespeareDarkness Falls

Prominent · 4

PikachuNola SoulZarak PashaJesus Green

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Aix La Chapelle

Five horses carry genuine front-running or prominent intent into this 1m1f contest — Green Dreamer, Quest For Stars, Victory Speech, Darkness Falls, and Shakespeare will all want to press forward from the gates, guaranteeing a strong early tempo on Good ground at Leopardstown. The prominent contingent of Nola Soul, Pikachu, Zarak Pasha, and Jesus Green will be forced to race just off a fierce pace rather than enjoying the comfort of a soft lead, creating a compressed mid-race dynamic with traffic danger almost certain 2-3 out as the field turns for home. Crucially, Aix La Chapelle is flagged as redistributed — a natural prominent runner shown at hold-up due to the field's lack of genuine closers, meaning this race has even more pace pressure baked in than it appears on paper, and the one runner supposedly "closing" is not a true hold-up type. This shape emphatically favours the horse with the best combination of tactical speed to hold a prime position just off the contested lead and the stamina to sustain that effort through the final two furlongs — a strong-travelling prominent racer with proven Good-ground form is the profile this pace scenario rewards most handsomely.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Stalker Lands

48% probability

If the strong pace burns off the contested front-runners from 3f out, leaving a well-positioned prominent racer to stride clear in the final furlong.

The five front-runners fight among themselves for early supremacy, setting a genuine gallop that stretches the field, and a horse sitting a length or two off the pace arrives with a sustained run to collar the tiring leaders at the line; Nola Soul's proven 7f Good-ground form translates to this 1m1f on a testing pace and she is ideally placed from stall 1 to control a prime tracking position throughout.

Nola SoulPikachuZarak PashaQuest For Stars

Front-Runner Breaks Clear

28% probability

If one of the leading quartet asserts enough authority early to control the tempo and steal a decisive advantage from the top of the straight.

Quest For Stars's unbeaten three-from-three record on Good ground and James Doyle's ability to dictate from stall 8 allow the Appleby runner to roll to the front and set only a fair pace, conserving enough energy to quicken when asked; a race run at a controlled rather than suicidal gallop would expose the field's lack of a genuine sitting closer and reward the horse best able to dominate from the front.

Quest For StarsDarkness FallsVictory SpeechShakespeare

Pace Collapse Helps Midfield

16% probability

If the early speed fractures by halfway and a horse tracking in mid-division finds an unimpeded run down the centre.

Pikachu's recent winning form at 8f shows improvement at this trip and David Egan could steal a march by sitting sixth or seventh as the pace implodes ahead; the open field and Good ground allow a horse with a strong finishing kick to pick off tired rivals in the final furlong, provided traffic clears early enough in the straight.

PikachuZarak PashaAix La ChapelleJesus Green

Closers Pounce Late

8% probability

If the pace is so severe that all prominent horses wilt and a genuine hold-up run produces a late rattle.

This scenario is materially discounted because Aix La Chapelle, the only runner mapped to a rear position, is a redistributed prominent type rather than a natural closer, meaning the profile required to exploit this shape has no genuine representative in the field; even if the pace is brutal, the lack of a true hold-up horse means no runner is in position to deliver a sustained late challenge from off the bridle from the back.

Aix La ChapelleJesus GreenPikachuNola Soul

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Quest For Stars (stall 8) and Green Dreamer (stall 5) will both attempt to lead — watch the first two furlongs for a battle for the rail that could inject an unsustainably fierce pace and compromise both their finishing efforts.

KEY

Nola Soul from stall 1 sits in the perfect stalking position but the prominent congestion means Seamie Heffernan must be alert to a wall of horses attempting to cut across and take her ground between 2f and 3f out.

WATCH

Aix La Chapelle is mapped to hold-up but is a natural prominent type — if Soumillon elects to race forward in keeping with the horse's style, the field has even more pace pressure than the drawn positions suggest, further compressing the prominent group and increasing traffic risk.

WATCH

Darkness Falls ran just 14 days ago and Ryan Moore may attempt to settle the horse off the pace; if the fractions are fast enough to compromise its stamina, watch for it to fade tamely inside the final furlong despite carrying winning fitness.

NOTE

Zarak Pasha is the only runner proven at beyond 8f, having won at 9f — if the strong pace turns this into a genuine stamina test, McDonogh from stall 2 is ideally positioned to deliver a late challenge that catches out rivals flattening out.

3:15 — World Pool Bet With The Tote Kilternan Stakes (Group 3)

1m4f · Good · G3 · 11 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Arabian Crown led, as the map showed.

Arabian Crown won at 12.00 — led, as the map had it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Arabian CrownGreen ImpactThread Of GoldPiazza San Marco

Prominent · 3

Sons And LoversGaucherAsakir

Midfield · 2

James J BraddockGoodie Two Shoes

Hold Up · 2

PurviewIn My Teens

Arabian Crown, Green Impact, Thread Of Gold and Piazza San Marco all want to race prominently or lead, guaranteeing a contested, honest gallop over this 1m4f trip on Good ground at Leopardstown. Arabian Crown (draw 1) and Thread Of Gold (draw 5) are the most likely to press for the early lead, with Green Impact and Piazza San Marco applying further pressure from the front half of the field, ensuring the pace is genuine rather than dawdled. With four runners competing for the early positions, no single horse will be able to control the race cheaply, which means the strong tempo will stretch the field and expose any stamina limitations in the front rank. This shape emphatically favours hold-up and mid-division horses who can conserve energy early, track the pace from off it and deploy a sustained late run — making Purview, James J Braddock and Goodie Two Shoes the profiles best placed to capitalise.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closers Swoop Late

47% probability

If the contested pace from Arabian Crown, Green Impact, Thread Of Gold and Piazza San Marco burns along honestly, draining the front rank entering the straight.

The mid-division and hold-up horses are gifted a pace to chase on Good ground, allowing them to pick off the tiring leaders in the final two furlongs; Purview's proven ability to deliver a sustained late run and James J Braddock's strong finishing profile make them the primary beneficiaries of this classic honest-pace meltdown.

PurviewJames J BraddockGoodie Two ShoesSons And Lovers

Pace Battle Collapses

27% probability

If Arabian Crown or Thread Of Gold seizes an uncontested lead after the initial scrapping resolves and a false pace results in a muddling gallop.

One pacemaker dominates once rivals are outpaced early and the race becomes a sprint home from a slow tempo, favouring those with enough tactical speed to sit close to the leader; Sons And Lovers and Gaucher, both prominent-style runners with quick finishes, benefit from a compact field that makes a late swooping run harder to execute.

Sons And LoversGaucherArabian CrownThread Of Gold

Prominent Racer Holds On

16% probability

If the genuine pace is consistently strong but one prominent horse conserves energy by tracking just behind the leaders rather than leading, and times the challenge to perfection.

Gaucher or Sons And Lovers, anchored just off the pace at a strong gallop, finds the leaders spent enough to hold off the closers in a race where the winning position is two lengths off the front; the Good ground and honest tempo reward the horse that travels best rather than the horse that runs fastest.

GaucherSons And LoversGreen ImpactPiazza San Marco

Outsider Gate Crashes

10% probability

If the genuine pace is so severe that it brings the entire field into contention late and a lightly weighted or improving runner exploits the chaos.

Thread Of Gold or Piazza San Marco, both carrying a lower weight burden in a field that has burned itself out, finds a wall of tiring horses to pick through and is gifted an opening; this is a low-probability shape because it requires multiple factors to align simultaneously and the form of the leading fancies is superior.

Thread Of GoldPiazza San MarcoAsakirIn My Teens

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Purview vs James J Braddock — the Strand Scorecard's top and danger are both hold-up horses entirely dependent on the pace holding up; if the four front-runners fail to collectively maintain a genuine gallop all the way to the straight, neither will have enough to pass leaders with petrol still in the tank.

WATCH

Arabian Crown (stall 1) vs Thread Of Gold (stall 5) vs Green Impact (stall 8) — watch the first furlong closely as three lead-style horses fight for the front position; whichever horse loses that battle will be forced to race at an uncomfortable, energy-sapping pace in the early stages.

KEY

Green Impact's place in the market — she is effectively a lead-or-nothing runner whose recent form figures (4-4-2) have all come racing prominently, and if she cannot secure a clear lead she may be shuffled back and compromise her race entirely.

WATCH

Goodie Two Shoes at 14f on Good — the JP O'Brien seven-year-old has won and placed at this exact trip on this going, meaning he is quietly well-suited and could outrun a bigger price if James J Braddock underperforms or gets blocked in traffic.

NOTE

In My Teens — headgear and a history of finding trouble in running; Gary Carroll will need to find clear passage turning for home in an 11-runner field, and any check in momentum will be fatal to a horse that already showed fragile recent form.

3:55 — Coolmore America 'Justify' Matron Stakes (Group 1)

1m · Good · G1 · 9 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Carolina Jetstream led, as the map showed.

Blue Bolt won at 1.80 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Fallen AngelCity Of MemphisCarolina Jetstream

Prominent · 3

Blue BoltTrue LovePivotal Attack

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

PreciseMeridenDuckadilly

Fallen Angel, City Of Memphis, and Carolina Jetstream all want to lead, creating a near-certainty of a contested, high-tempo gallop from the outset over Leopardstown's flat mile on Good ground. City Of Memphis has been dominant in her front-running role this season but returns from 111 days off, while Fallen Angel has the headgear and the Group 1 class to fight hard for the early rail, meaning the pace battle itself may begin before the first bend. Carolina Jetstream's recent form (402682) suggests she is unlikely to sustain a meaningful challenge but will nonetheless contribute to a genuinely strong early fraction. This race shape overwhelmingly favours prominent and hold-up horses who can conserve energy through the early stages and deploy a sustained late run — in particular those with the class to pick up efficiently once the pace collapses in the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hot Pace, Closers Reign

48% probability

If the three-way duel for the lead burns out the front-runners inside the final quarter-mile, leaving the race open for those tracking or held up.

Fallen Angel, City Of Memphis, and Carolina Jetstream sustain a fierce gallop that strips the leaders of reserves past the two-furlong marker, allowing prominent and hold-up runners with superior class to sweep through. Blue Bolt, tracking keenly with Colin Keane from a wide draw, and Precise, patient under Ryan Moore, are the primary beneficiaries of this shape.

Blue BoltPreciseTrue LoveFallen Angel

Blue Bolt Stalks and Pounces

27% probability

If Blue Bolt travels comfortably just off the hot pace and quickens decisively in the straight as the leaders tie up.

Keane positions Blue Bolt in the slipstream of the early leaders from draw 9, and once the tempo subsides Blue Bolt's superior OR of 119 and unblemished recent form (1-1111) allows her to accelerate clear. The top-rated runner in the field, she has won four consecutive times on Good turf over this trip and represents the profile this race shape is built to reward.

Blue BoltTrue LovePreciseFallen Angel

Front-Runner Survives Carnage

15% probability

If City Of Memphis or Fallen Angel steals a march, the pace war between the other two leaders neutralises each other, and one front-runner is left in front going into the straight.

City Of Memphis, returning from a lengthy 111-day absence but unbeaten in three this season, has the class and natural aptitude to dictate if Fallen Angel and Carolina Jetstream contest each other's position and fade; Fallen Angel, equipped with headgear and dropping back to a mile she has won at, is the alternative beneficiary if she secures a clean lead.

City Of MemphisFallen AngelCarolina JetstreamTrue Love

Held-Up Finisher Swoops Late

10% probability

If the pace is even more extreme than anticipated and the race becomes a sprint finish with runners widest and deepest coming off the bend.

Precise or Meriden, both operating from hold-up positions and both with strong recent form figures on Good turf, could emerge from the pack if every horse in front weakens simultaneously. Precise's six-from-six record on similar going and Meriden's impressive winning streak make them the ones to benefit, though their reliance on an extreme meltdown limits this scenario's probability.

PreciseMeridenDuckadillyTrue Love

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Fallen Angel or City Of Memphis secures the early rail; if both are scrubbing along to lead before the half-mile, the fractions could be extreme enough to compromise both and fundamentally reshape the finish.

WATCH

Blue Bolt's wide draw (9) requires Keane to either push forward early or settle wider than ideal — if the early pace drags her into contention sooner than planned, her stamina reserves entering the straight could be tested.

WATCH

City Of Memphis is 111 days off the track; watch for any signs of greenness or lack of peak fitness in the paddock and early stages — if she is not wound up, the whole pace dynamic changes.

NOTE

Precise under Ryan Moore could be entirely overlooked in the market given the noise around the front-runners; Moore will likely find a position just off the pace from the inside draw (1), which is a patient hold-up pattern perfectly suited to this race shape.

NOTE

Fallen Angel's headgear (hg:p — presumably a hood or cheekpieces) is a detail to track at the start — if it has a calming effect and she settles rather than battles, she becomes a more potent threat to last home than her recent form (110-43) suggests.

4:25 — Tonybet Solonaway Stakes (Group 2)

1m · Good · G2 · 10 runners

Lead contested: Faiyum v Charles FortHISTORIC

How it ran

Audience led; the map had Faiyum and Charles Fort in front.

Quddwah won at 2.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

FaiyumCharles Fort

Prominent · 4

QuddwahPower BlueExpandedAudience

Midfield · 1

Cowardofthecounty

Hold Up · 3

Isaac NewtonHazdannPrincess Child

Faiyum and Charles Fort are confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the off on this flat Leopardstown mile, creating an honest, competitive gallop rather than a falsely-run affair. With four runners wanting prominent positions — Quddwah, Power Blue, Audience, and Expanded all chasing the same ground — there will be significant congestion in the first half-mile, compressing the field and creating traffic danger two to three furlongs out. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than the race shape can accommodate cleanly; Faiyum, drawn widest of the two leaders in stall 2, is most likely to dominate on the front end, while Charles Fort from stall 1 should track him, but both Quddwah and Audience are most likely to slot into the prominent positions behind them given class and jockey quality, leaving Power Blue and Expanded slightly further back than ideal. A genuinely-run pace on Good ground over a flat mile at Leopardstown historically suits hold-up horses who can finish strongly through a tiring pack, giving the edge to those with a confirmed strong late run — but Isaac Newton and Hazdann must find a way past the midfield congestion to capitalise.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest Gallop, Closers Deliver

54% probability

If Faiyum and Charles Fort set a genuine honest pace that strings the field out and clears the way for strong finishers from off the pace.

The two front-runners burn each other up through a competitive gallop, leaving the race to those held up or tracking in the last two furlongs as the pace collapses late; Good ground on a flat track gives no hiding place for those who have burned petrol early. Hold-up horses with the strongest finishing kicks — Isaac Newton and Hazdann — find their optimal conditions here.

Isaac NewtonHazdannCowardofthecountyPower Blue

Prominent Racer Outstays Field

24% probability

If the pace is fierce enough to destroy the hold-up horses' finishing kick but one prominent tracker conserves energy and pounces late from the chasing pack.

Power Blue, sitting just behind the battle and avoiding the worst of the early fractions, finds a clear run from the two-furlong pole and picks off rivals as the true pace-setters tire; this suits a horse with his profile — prominent without being drawn into the speed battle, able to quicken on a flat track. Quddwah carries the fade-in-finish flag, so Power Blue is the most credible prominent beneficiary if the shape sets up this way.

Power BlueAudienceExpandedFaiyum

Front Runner Outkicks Field

14% probability

If Charles Fort or Faiyum wins the early duel, settles in front at a sustainable clip, and proves impossible to reel in on a flat, easy-galloping track.

Should the contested early stages not result in a true burn-up but instead one leader pinching a lead at a controlled tempo from two furlongs out, the prominent horses never get close enough to challenge and closers run out of track; Charles Fort, ridden by Soumillon who can save a horse's energy from the front, is the more likely beneficiary given his draw in stall 1. Faiyum also profiles as a winner here given his front-running form.

Charles FortFaiyumQuddwahAudience

Pace Collapse, Wide-Draw Late

8% probability

If chaotic early exchanges cause a pace collapse mid-race, favouring a hold-up horse drawn widest who avoids all trouble.

Isaac Newton from stall 10 avoids the early congestion entirely and Ryan Moore can plot a clean outside path to the two-furlong pole; Hazdann from stall 7 similarly has enough daylight to come late but the flat track and likely genuine pace makes a true late lunge harder to execute without a strong pace having been truly run. Both must time their runs perfectly to pounce.

Isaac NewtonHazdannCowardofthecountyPrincess Child

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Isaac Newton and Hazdann are both hold-up horses navigating a congested midfield — watch for traffic trouble between the two-furlong and one-furlong poles where the prominent pack could block both horses simultaneously.

KEY

Faiyum and Charles Fort will contest the lead from the off — if either refuses to give ground the pace will be genuinely fierce and could compromise every horse within two lengths of the front in the final furlong.

WATCH

Quddwah's 168-day absence and noted fade-in-finish flag makes him a significant risk if he hits the front too early; James Doyle must judge the tempo precisely or he bleeds out in the final furlong under full Group 2 pressure.

WATCH

Power Blue is the Scorecard's top selection but his trainer T14 figure shows zero winners from eight — watch whether David Egan can compensate with a bold prominent position to offset any stable wobble in form.

NOTE

Cowardofthecounty's redistribution to midfield on the map understates the fact that he is a true hold-up horse — if he finds himself hemmed in behind the prominent pack rather than in the clear air at the rear, his race may be effectively over before straightening for home.

5:00 — Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)

1m2f · Good · G1 · 8 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Hotazhell won at 51.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

ItemHotazhellHawk Mountain

Prominent · 3

Constitution RiverLambournA Boy Named Susie

Midfield · 1

Almaqam

Hold Up · 1

Wimbledon Hawkeye

Item, Hotazhell, and Hawk Mountain all want to be on or near the lead, guaranteeing a strong early gallop over Leopardstown's flat 1m2f on good ground — this is not a race where anyone stumbles into a falsely run contest. Item (Colin Keane) is the class act of the front-runners and will likely dictate terms from draw 4, with Hotazhell pressing from the inside rail and Hawk Mountain applying further pressure from draw 5, meaning the pace will be honest and sustained throughout. That relentless tempo will stretch the field and ensure stamina becomes the defining quality in the closing stages, favouring horses who can travel with cover and deliver a sustained finishing effort rather than a sharp sprint. The field also holds more prominent types than can all secure their ideal position — Constitution River (Ryan Moore, draw 3) and A Boy Named Susie (Oisin Murphy, draw 2) both want to be prominent, and with three genuine front-runners ahead of them, at least one will be forced to race slightly wider or deeper than preferred; Item is the one most likely to dictate uncontested, and this race shape strongly favours prominent-to-midfield closers who can track a true pace and sustain their run through the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace, Stamina Wins

48% probability

If Item controls from the front and the three-way early battle between Item, Hotazhell, and Hawk Mountain sets a truly searching gallop, the race becomes a test of staying power at Group 1 level.

Item's rivals battle for supremacy up front and burn themselves out, allowing a horse with superior stamina and cruising speed to pick them off — a horse travelling kindly in second or third who quickens clear from two furlongs out wins.

A Boy Named SusieConstitution RiverAlmaqamLambourn

Item Dictates and Wins

28% probability

If Item (Colin Keane) gets a soft lead and is able to control the pace without being seriously pressured early, switching off beautifully before quickening again.

Item's top Racing Post Rating, consistent form on good ground, and ability to control his own tempo make him capable of front-running success if rivals don't push hard enough in the early stages — his 4W record from 4 starts on similar going underlines his suitability.

ItemA Boy Named SusieConstitution RiverAlmaqam

Closers Mop Up Late

15% probability

If the front-running trio genuinely burn each other out and the pace collapses in the final two furlongs, horses coming from midfield who have been able to conserve energy could sweep past.

Almaqam, who has shown the ability to finish off strongly from midfield on good ground, is the natural beneficiary of a truly run race that turns into a stamina test for the whole field.

AlmaqamLambournWimbledon HawkeyeConstitution River

Prominent Horse Steals It

9% probability

If the pace scenario muddles slightly and a prominent racer sits just off the leaders without being dragged into the early battle, that horse could pinch a lead at the top of the straight and hold on.

Constitution River (Ryan Moore) is ideally drawn in stall 3 to slot into a prominent position without having to fight for it, and if the front-runners cancel each other out, Ryan Moore's tactical intelligence from that draw could be decisive.

Constitution RiverA Boy Named SusieHotazhellHawk Mountain

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

A Boy Named Susie (draw 2, Oisin Murphy) will look to track Item and Constitution River from a position just off the pace — watch whether Murphy can slot in quietly or is forced wide early by the crowded prominent group.

WATCH

Hotazhell (draw 1, headgear, 48 days off) could cut out an unsustainably fast early pace if Shane Foley sends him forward aggressively from the inside rail — a very fast opening quarter will accelerate the stamina test significantly.

WATCH

Hawk Mountain (draw 5) is likely to be shuffled back after the initial battle for position with Item and Hotazhell — watch whether Boudot elects to drop him in or fights for prominence, as that early decision will define how much petrol he has at the finish.

NOTE

Constitution River (Ryan Moore, draw 3) has won twice at 10f on good ground but has never faced a pace this strong at Group 1 level — watch whether Moore is able to park him just behind the battle or is drawn into chasing the tempo earlier than ideal.

NOTE

Lambourn (49 days off, dropping back from 1m4f) — if the pace does collapse or the race comes to a stamina-sapping crawl in the straight, Declan McDonogh's patient ride from midfield could give him a late opportunity, but he needs the extreme end of the stamina scenario to be live.

5:35 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap

1m5f · Good · HCAP · 26 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Evanesco led, as the map showed.

Immutable won at 26.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

9 of 21 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

EvanescoMadbadanddangerousMinella Rockett

Prominent · 10

The ReverendPort Of SpainPoetic SoundCannesWymanCounting CoupYousaynothingatallWestminster MoonGlenroyalTruth Be Told

Midfield · 8

Dawn RisingHelvic DreamFactual FactStar HarbourNight MoonImmutableSunny South WestDiamond Exchange

Hold Up · 5

This SongisforyouComfort ZoneWar RoomsToo Bossy For UsEn Or

Evanesco, Madbadanddangerous, and Minella Rockett are all confirmed front-runners who will contest the early lead hard in a 26-runner field over 1m5f on Good ground, making a strong, sustained gallop virtually certain from the outset. That relentless early tempo over this stamina-testing trip will stretch the field significantly, burning off rivals who lack the resolution to see out the distance under pressure. The race is likely to be won by a horse who can sit just off the boiling pace in a genuine prominent position or track from mid-division with a powerful staying finish — pure hold-up horses will have too much ground to make up if the pace is honest throughout. This field contains far more prominent types than can realistically secure that position: Factual Fact, Star Harbour, Night Moon, Diamond Exchange, Sunny South West, and Immutable are all natural prominent racers who are likely to find themselves shuffled back into midfield, with Cannes (Colin Keane), Wyman, Port Of Spain, and Yousaynothingatall most likely to actually command the prominent berths given quality of pilot and yard.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong pace, stayer prevails

44% probability

If the three front-runners set a fierce gallop that decimates the field, leaving a true stayer to reel them in off a strong pace.

The relentless early fractions will punish any horse without genuine stamina at 1m5f on Good ground, turning this into a thorough test of resolution. A prominent tracker with proven stamina who can quicken off a strong tempo is ideally placed, as the pace-setters will have done the damage well before the final two furlongs.

CannesTruth Be ToldYousaynothingatallWyman

Pace collapse, prominent striker

28% probability

If one of the three front-runners gains a decisive advantage and the pace becomes uneven, allowing a well-placed prominent type to strike at a critical moment.

Evanesco in particular has won on Good ground and could dictate if the others fade, creating a scenario where a horse in a close-tracking prominent position can land a decisive blow without overextending.

CannesPort Of SpainWymanYousaynothingatall

Hold-up horse swoops late

18% probability

If the strong early gallop is truly sustained and the field strings out, creating enough space for a genuine closer to pick up the pieces in the final furlong.

Comfort Zone won over 17f on Good and is a legitimate hold-up type; This Songisforyou placed over 12f on Good and is trained for these tests. Both will need the pace scenario to play perfectly and plenty of room in a 26-runner field.

Comfort ZoneThis SongisforyouWar RoomsHelvic Dream

Pace implodes, chaos reigns

10% probability

If two or more front-runners clash and burn out early, causing the pace to collapse and creating an unpredictable scramble for the lead with the field bunching.

In a 26-runner field at 1m5f, a collapse in the pace would benefit horses that can switch tactical gears, though this remains unlikely given the confirmed aggressive profiles of all three pace-setters. Night Moon and Factual Fact, natural prominent types pushed back, could find themselves in an unexpectedly good position if the field concertinas mid-race.

Night MoonFactual FactStar HarbourSunny South West

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Evanesco (draw 12), Madbadanddangerous (draw 20), and Minella Rockett (draw 26) will battle hard from the gates — watch which of the three establishes the lead earliest, as the one who settles quickest will last longest and dictate how punishing the early fractions become.

KEY

Cannes and Truth Be Told are the two horses most likely to dictate the outcome if they can sit prominently just off the pace war — watch how quickly Colin Keane positions Cannes in the first quarter-mile, as a wide early draw (16) in a 26-runner field risks getting caught wide or losing position.

WATCH

Star Harbour (draw 2) has an inside berth that gives him the best chance of any of the redistributed prominent types to actually hold a forward position — if he does get cover on the rail and the inside, his place claims improve significantly.

WATCH

Yousaynothingatall with Oisin Murphy from draw 21 is a notable jockey-booking angle: Murphy does not take ordinary handicap rides without purpose, and if he can track the pace from a handy position this three-year-old's consistent form makes him a live threat to the principals.

NOTE

With 26 runners at

6:10 — World Pool Bet With Tote Autumn Fillies Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 19 runners

Lead contested: Guardian Of Realm v Thrifty Of DigbyHISTORIC

How it ran

Guardian Of Realm led, as the map showed.

Rebel Wave won at 8.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

6 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Guardian Of RealmThrifty Of Digby

Prominent · 8

Suzie SongsQuebecChica GuerreraAviatriceKillashee WarriorRebel WaveElectric BeautyBlue Blue Moon

Midfield · 3

MallavellyBella ColombiaAnvika

Hold Up · 6

TahcawinDrop Dead GorgeousPink OxalisMayflowerMarmeladovaTachos

Guardian Of Realm and Thrifty Of Digby are the confirmed front-runners, and with eight of nineteen runners wanting prominent positions, the early stages will be genuinely competitive rather than a gentle procession — expect an honest, pressure-on gallop from the outset on this flat Leopardstown mile. The congestion between the two-furlong and three-furlong poles is where this race is most likely to be decided, as rivals bump into traffic at precisely the moment they need to accelerate. This field carries more prominent-type runners than the race shape can accommodate: Guardian Of Realm and Thrifty Of Digby are most likely to actually secure lead positions, while Bella Colombia and Anvika — natural prominent and hold-up types respectively — are effectively pushed into midfield roles they do not naturally fill, reducing their effectiveness. With an honest pace guaranteed and a flat track that does not blunt stamina, the tactical verdict is clear: genuine mid-to-prominent types who can settle just off the pace within the first four, travel economically through the contested middle stages, and produce a sustained finish in the final two furlongs are the beneficiaries — pure hold-up horses launching from deep face an uncomfortably large field to navigate through.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest Pace, Prominent Strike

46% probability

If Guardian Of Realm and Thrifty Of Digby set a genuine gallop and the race unfolds at an even honest tempo throughout.

The sustained pace stretches the field and rewards those sitting three to five lengths off the lead with a clear passage into the straight, producing a finish dominated by the prominent group who have conserved their energy through the middle section. Suzie Songs, Electric Beauty, and Rebel Wave all have the profile to travel prominently, find a run turning in, and hit the line hard.

Electric BeautySuzie SongsRebel WaveAviatrice

Contested Pace Causes Carnage

28% probability

If the eight prominent-seeking runners fight for position early, creating an overly strong gallop that burns out the front-runners by the two-furlong pole.

The pace collapses in the straight, handing late movers a clear opportunity to sweep past weakening leaders in the final furlong. Tahcawin, Drop Dead Gorgeous, and Tachos are true hold-up types with the stamina and profile to benefit from a fast-run, strung-out race.

Drop Dead GorgeousTahcawinTachosPink Oxalis

Front Runners Dictate

17% probability

If Thrifty Of Digby or Guardian Of Realm steals a few lengths early and the pack misjudges the tempo, allowing the leader to control the fractions.

A falsely run first half at a canter followed by a sprint from the front suits the horse that has led throughout and can quicken away before closers can wind up their engines. Thrifty Of Digby's recent Leopardstown win and proven front-running record make this a genuine threat, and Guardian Of Realm has similar front-running form credentials.

Thrifty Of DigbyGuardian Of RealmSuzie SongsChica Guerrera

Midfield Chaos, Dark Horse

9% probability

If severe traffic problems two to three furlongs out produce a fragmented finish where several fancied runners are impeded.

A horse who finds an improbable gap through a fractured field benefits, and the wide draw of Tahcawin (19) and Pink Oxalis (18) could prove advantageous as they bypass the inner congestion entirely. Mallavelly and Blue Blue Moon, both capable of travelling prominently from low draws, could also profit if rivals are squeezed out.

MallavellyBlue Blue MoonPink OxalisKillashee Warrior

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Traffic explosion two to three furlongs out is the single biggest danger in this race — with 8 of 19 runners wanting prominent positions, horses like Bella Colombia and Suzie Songs face genuine risk of being squeezed for room at the crucial moment.

KEY

Thrifty Of Digby and Guardian Of Realm will press each other throughout — if neither blinks and they burn each other out in a contested lead battle, the entire front group may collapse simultaneously in the final furlong.

WATCH

Electric Beauty is the Strand top selection but has not raced in 93 days and all her form on Going Good is limited — watch the market move at the off to gauge stable confidence after the break.

WATCH

Rebel Wave drops in OR (82) and faces a first attempt at a mile — Ben Coen's positioning from stall 1 in the first two furlongs will be the clearest early signal of whether connections believe she stays the trip.

NOTE

Bella Colombia and Anvika are both racing effectively out of their natural roles due to field congestion — punters should factor in that their usual tactical advantages are structurally compromised in this specific race shape.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 September 2026.

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