Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
1:57 — Student Style Awards (C & G) Maiden
1m2f · Good To Soft · MDN · 11 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:32 — "Domin OH HOO HOO" Handicap
1m2f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Diamond Exchange to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Coeur d'Or led; the map had Diamond Exchange in front.
Diego El Queso won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Diamond Exchange
Prominent · 3
Dutch GoldDay TraderMr Rango
Midfield · 6
Lord ChurchAmplitudeAbbey ActressSwitch From DieselThatwilldosoDerry Lad
Hold Up · 4
Diego El QuesoCoeur d'OrWar RoomsQuatre Bras
Diamond Exchange is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the outset, likely setting a sustainable tempo without serious pressure through the early stages. Dutch Gold and Day Trader may track prominently but neither appears keen to challenge for the lead. With 10 of 13 runners adopting hold-up tactics, the pace will be steady early before quickening from the 3f pole as the large pack of closers fan out. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed who can position close to the pace, as the wall of hold-up horses will struggle to find racing room in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Sets Up Perfectly
45% probability
If Diamond Exchange maintains a steady gallop to halfway then quickens
The front runner gets first run while prominent trackers like Dutch Gold can follow the move before the hold-up brigade get organized. Those within striking distance at the 2f pole hold decisive positional advantages.
Diamond ExchangeDutch GoldDay TraderMr Rango
B
Hold-Up Traffic Chaos
30% probability
If the large group of hold-up horses encounter significant interference turning for home
Multiple runners get hampered or forced wide, allowing the most capable closers with clear runs to capitalize. Abbey Actress and Diego El Queso possess the class to navigate trouble and finish strongest.
Abbey ActressDiego El QuesoThatwilldosoAmplitude
C
Front Runner Folds Late
15% probability
If Diamond Exchange sets too strong a pace or stops in the final furlong
The pace collapses completely, bringing every hold-up horse into contention in a messy finish. The best horse on ratings among the closers prevails in a tight photo.
Diego El QuesoQuatre BrasAbbey ActressWar Rooms
D
Outsider Ambush
10% probability
If the pace becomes truly crawling and tactical awareness proves decisive
A lightly-weighted runner like Switch From Diesel or an improving sort gets the perfect trip on the rail. Fresh legs and tactical positioning overcome superior ability in a surprise result.
Switch From DieselAmplitudeDay TraderThatwilldoso
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Diamond Exchange sets the tempo alone - if the pace becomes too slow early, every hold-up horse comes into play
WATCH
Traffic problems at the 2f pole with 10+ hold-up horses converging simultaneously on a narrow track
WATCH
Abbey Actress for market support given her soft ground record and recent form revival
NOTE
Dutch Gold and Day Trader tracking positions behind Diamond Exchange through the first half-mile
NOTE
Switch From Diesel for fitness levels after 164-day absence, any market confidence would be significant
Lead contested: Mississippi River v Norwalk HavocHISTORIC
How it ran
The Lion In Winter and Cowardofthecounty led; the map had Mississippi River and Norwalk Havoc in front.
The Lion In Winter won at 2.10 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Mississippi RiverNorwalk Havoc
Prominent · 2
MutasarrefExpanded
Midfield · 4
RibeeCowardofthecountyTarimaGaiety Girl
Hold Up · 4
The Lion In WinterLord MassususTokenomicsJancis
Mississippi River and Norwalk Havoc will ensure a genuine gallop from the outset, with both confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the early lead over this straight mile at Leopardstown. Their honest pace will stretch the field and create a true test of stamina, particularly on the yielding ground which will sap energy reserves. The strong early gallop will suit those with tactical speed who can travel prominently rather than those relying on finishing kicks from the rear. This pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers and those with proven stamina at the trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Honest Gallop Benefits Prominent
45% probability
If Mississippi River and Norwalk Havoc set genuine fractions and maintain the tempo
The strong pace will find out the stamina-shy and set up perfectly for those racing handy to the pace. Horses like Mutasarref and Expanded, who can sit prominent and have the class to quicken, will benefit from the pace collapse.
MutasarrefExpandedThe Lion In WinterJancis
B
Front Runners Steal It
30% probability
If the pace-setters get away with softer fractions than expected
Mississippi River or Norwalk Havoc could capitalise on their forward positions if the pace becomes more sedate. Their early advantage would prove decisive if the closing kick from behind fails to materialise on the testing ground.
Mississippi RiverNorwalk HavocTokenomicsRibee
C
Hold Up Heroes Strike
15% probability
If the early pace is too strong and burns out the leaders completely
The genuine gallop could set up perfectly for the patient hold-up performers to sweep past tired leaders. The Lion In Winter and Lord Massusus have the class to benefit from a pace collapse in the final furlong.
The Lion In WinterLord MassususJancisTarima
D
Outsider Ambush
10% probability
If the race develops into a messy tactical affair with uneven pace
A stop-start tempo could bring improvers like Tokenomics and Ribee into contention against classier but rustier rivals. The yielding conditions would aid their stamina while others struggle with the tactical nature.
TokenomicsRibeeGaiety GirlCowardofthecounty
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
If Mississippi River and Norwalk Havoc go too fast early, they could set it up for the hold-up horses despite the tactical disadvantage
WATCH
Mutasarref has home advantage with four course wins but hasn't quite reached 2024 levels this season
NOTE
The Lion In Winter's hold-up style needs the anticipated strong pace to be fully effective
WATCH
Several runners face significant layoffs over 150 days which could blunt their fitness edge
NOTE
The yielding ground will emphasise stamina and could favour those with proven form on similar surfaces
3:42 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Fillies Maiden
1m · Good To Soft · MDN · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:17 — Horseware Ireland Student Derby Handicap
1m1f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 9 runners
Some Good Men Gone likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Baila Conmigo and Teffian Warrior led; the map had Some Good Men Gone in front.
Star Mind won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Some Good Men Gone
Prominent · 3
Teffian WarriorBaila ConmigoUrban War
Midfield · 2
StaywitherjohnnyYour Out Of Line
Hold Up · 3
ZipsterTyraxesStar Mind
Some Good Men Gone appears the only natural front runner in this field and will face minimal pressure early. The prominent runners (Teffian Warrior, Urban War, Staywitherjohnny, Baila Conmigo) are likely to settle behind while the hold-up horses (Zipster, Star Mind, Tyraxes, Your Out Of Line) drop further back. With one unchallenged leader and a small field, this sets up a moderate tempo that could quicken late. This race shape strongly favours horses with tactical speed who can track the pace and strike, penalising pure hold-up horses who need a strong gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Dominates
45% probability
If Some Good Men Gone gets an easy lead and kicks clear
The lack of early pressure allows him to dictate fractions and use his best weapon - front running ability. His second at Naas off a higher mark suggests he has the class to exploit this tactical advantage.
Some Good Men GoneTeffian WarriorTyraxesZipster
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If the pace becomes steady and suits those tracking
Zipster's hold-up style could work if he gets close enough, while Tyraxes has shown good recent form when getting his conditions right. The moderate tempo allows them to stay in touch and finish strongly.
ZipsterTyraxesSome Good Men GoneTeffian Warrior
C
Late Surge Fails
15% probability
If the pace is too slow for hold-up horses to make impact
Star Mind and Your Out Of Line need a stronger gallop to be effective but won't get it with one uncontested leader. Their finishing kicks will be blunted by the tactical nature of this small field contest.
Teffian WarriorBaila ConmigoSome Good Men GoneUrban War
D
Pace Collapse Surprise
10% probability
If Some Good Men Gone stops quickly and creates a cavalry charge
Multiple horses could benefit from a pace collapse including any prominent runners who stayed close. This low-probability scenario would need the leader to hit a wall completely.
Star MindUrban WarStaywitherjohnnyBaila Conmigo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Some Good Men Gone could steal this if allowed an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home
WATCH
Watch if Zipster can get close enough to the pace early as his hold-up style needs perfect positioning
WATCH
Tyraxes wearing headgear for first time suggests connections expect improved effort after poor Dundalk run
NOTE
Monitor early pace development - if faster than expected it could bring hold-up horses into play
NOTE
Teffian Warrior's market support after long break would indicate stable confidence in return to form
4:52 — FM104 "Giddy Up" Handicap
7f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Thru And Thru to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Greek Flower and Thru And Thru led, as the map showed.
Glory To Be won at 10.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
8 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Thru And Thru
Prominent · 7
Vega's MuseChester NimitzI Bid You AjouFree SoloThaloriaGlory To BeProleek Prince
Midfield · 4
VerhoyenGoal ExceededHugo's GirlAmemri
Hold Up · 5
Finsceal AnnieSenna's GirlAnvikaGreek FlowerPebble Island
Thru And Thru is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate a sustainable tempo without early pressure. However, seven horses (Glory To Be, Free Solo, I Bid You Ajou, Chester Nimitz, Vega's Muse, Verhoyen, Thaloria) want prominent positions, creating significant traffic congestion turning for home. The large field of hold-up horses (Greek Flower, Anvika, Pebble Island, Amemri, Goal Exceeded, Senna's Girl, Finsceal Annie, Hugo's Girl) will be looking for gaps 2-3 furlongs out. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can secure early position and avoid the inevitable traffic jam that will trap the hold-up brigade.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Position Gold
45% probability
If the prominent horses avoid early scrimmaging and secure clear positions behind Thru And Thru
The seven prominent racers get first run on the field while hold-up horses meet trouble in running. Those with tactical speed to sit handy but not lead will have ideal positioning when the pace quickens.
Vega's MuseGlory To BeI Bid You AjouChester Nimitz
B
Traffic Chaos Special
30% probability
If the prominent congestion creates a messy pace with multiple horses fighting for position
The bunching allows a patient hold-up horse with the best turn of foot to weave through and strike late. Only the classiest closers will have the acceleration to overcome the positioning disadvantage.
Greek FlowerFinsceal AnnieAnvikaSenna's Girl
C
Lone Leader Dominates
15% probability
If Thru And Thru gets an uncontested lead while the field argues behind
The front-runner builds an unassailable advantage as the field neutralizes itself with positional battles. By the time the field organizes a challenge, the leader has stolen too much ground.
Thru And ThruFree SoloChester NimitzGlory To Be
D
Pace Collapse Surprise
10% probability
If the early pace is very modest and Thru And Thru crawls along in front
The race becomes a sprint from the 3f pole where raw speed trumps position, allowing horses with natural pace to overcome poor draws or positions.
ThaloriaProleek PrinceHugo's GirlVerhoyen
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Traffic chaos 2f out when seven prominent horses and ten hold-up horses converge simultaneously
WATCH
Thru And Thru building unassailable lead if prominent pack fails to organize early pursuit
WATCH
Vega's Muse and top weight burden if pace becomes truly run affair in final furlong
NOTE
Chester Nimitz fitness levels on stable debut after six-month absence
NOTE
Greek Flower and Anvika room to maneuver from outside draws in closing stages
5:27 — BuzzBallz Handicap
7f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Romantic War to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Methgal led; the map had Romantic War in front.
Exceeding won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Romantic War is the sole committed front-runner and will dictate terms from the gate, likely getting an uncontested lead in the opening stages. Seven horses targeting prominent positions (She's Ideal, Sedro Woolley, Twotolose, Rock Basher, Brains, Mullacash Buzz, Jazzy Dancer) will create serious traffic problems turning for home as they all converge on limited rail space. The large field of hold-up horses (Zabriskie Point, Roman Harry, Mogwli, Methgal, Cannonball Queen, Kitty Bear, Sea Fort, Exceeding, Chipsrdown) will be relying on the pace to collapse and gaps to appear late. This race shape strongly favours early pace - either the uncontested leader or those who can secure clean prominent positions without getting caught in the squeeze.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Dominates
45% probability
If Romantic War gets an easy lead and the prominent pack neutralise each other
The front-runner will have too much in reserve when the traffic-delayed closers finally get clear running. Multiple hold-up horses will flatten out after expending energy navigating the congestion.
Romantic WarShe's IdealMethgal
B
Prominent Escape Traffic
30% probability
If one or two prominent runners secure clean positions outside the rail squeeze
These horses will have first run on the weakening leader while the hold-up brigade are still stuck behind the wall of traffic. The clean travellers will kick clear before the late runners can mount their challenge.
She's IdealBrainsJazzy DancerRoman Harry
C
Late Surge Through Gaps
20% probability
If the early pace is strong enough to stop Romantic War and gaps appear for closers
The prominent pack will come back to the field after pressuring each other, allowing the patient hold-up horses to capitalise with late runs. Fresh legs will tell in the final furlong.
MethgalRoman HarryKitty BearExceeding
D
Complete Pace Collapse
5% probability
If Romantic War stops dramatically and all prominent runners fade together
The entire front division will come backwards as one, creating a cavalry charge finish from the rear. Multiple hold-up horses will hit the line together in a blanket finish.
Zabriskie PointSea FortMogwliChipsrdown
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for Romantic War building an unassailable lead if the prominent pack get tangled up behind him
WATCH
Monitor She's Ideal and Brains for clean early positioning to avoid the expected prominent traffic jam
NOTE
Check if gaps appear on the outside for Roman Harry and Methgal who need clear late runs
WATCH
Observe whether Sedro Woolley shows signs of his quick 3-day turnaround affecting his performance
NOTE
Notice if any of the 7lb claimers (Rock Basher, Kitty Bear) can capitalise on their weight advantage in the closing stages
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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