Archive›Leopardstown · 15 May 2026

Leopardstown

15 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:05 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden

7f · Good · MDN · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:40 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden

1m · Good · MDN · 15 runners

Thistle Cross to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Suspicious Mindz and Matilda Joslyngage led; the map had Thistle Cross in front.

Full Moon Tonight won at 26.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Thistle Cross

Prominent · 3

Suspicious MindzFull Moon TonightSunrush

Midfield · 7

Saga GagaMake The TideKirkland SiouxDaring HeartAvoca WoodsMr PerthFarewell To Arms

Hold Up · 4

TrustmoreMatilda JoslyngageCoastingDe Songbird

Thistle Cross will take them along as the sole confirmed front runner but given his fade-in-finish tendency and modest ability, he's unlikely to sustain serious pressure. The prominent runners Suspicious Mindz, Sunrush and Full Moon Tonight will track closely behind with a large pack of hold-up horses including Trustmore, Coasting and Matilda Joslyngage waiting to pounce. With 15 runners and only one genuine leader, this sets up a steady tempo early before accelerating from halfway. This tactical setup strongly favours the hold-up merchants and closers who can capitalize on the modest early gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Thistle Cross sets his usual honest but unspectacular gallop and the prominent runners don't apply early pressure

The pace becomes pedestrian through the first half-mile, allowing the better-class hold-up horses to unleash devastating finishing kicks. Trustmore, Matilda Joslyngage and the O'Brien newcomers benefit most from this tactical scenario.

Kirkland SiouxTrustmoreMatilda JoslyngageMake The Tide

Prominent Runners Strike

20% probability

If Suspicious Mindz or Full Moon Tonight press forward to challenge Thistle Cross early and maintain the tempo

The race develops into a more honest gallop that prevents the back markers from winding up their runs effectively. Suspicious Mindz's consistent form gives him the edge in a more truly-run affair.

Suspicious MindzFull Moon TonightSunrushKirkland Sioux

Pace Collapse Finish

12% probability

If Thistle Cross fades dramatically turning in and no prominent runner takes up the running

The race becomes a messy sprint with horses coming from all angles in the final furlong. The most progressive types with natural speed benefit from the chaotic finish.

Make The TideSuspicious MindzDe SongbirdMatilda Joslyngage

Front Runner Shocks

3% probability

If Thistle Cross finds improved form after his break and the field allows him too much rope

His early lead becomes unassailable as the chasing pack leaves their runs too late on the good ground. Only a dramatic improvement in form makes this viable given his poor recent efforts.

Thistle CrossSunrushFull Moon TonightSuspicious Mindz

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Suspicious Mindz or Full Moon Tonight press Thistle Cross early as this could set up a stronger pace than expected

WATCH

Monitor the O'Brien newcomers Kirkland Sioux and Make The Tide for market support indicating stable confidence

NOTE

Check if any of the returning horses after long breaks show significant market moves suggesting hidden improvement

WATCH

Watch for Trustmore's headgear impact as the previous promise could be unlocked with the pace-setter addition

NOTE

Observe if Thistle Cross shows more early speed than usual as this could disrupt the expected pace scenario

6:12 — Leopardstown Friday Night Social Apprentice Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 17 runners

Faoladh likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dynamic Force and Battle Borne led; the map had Faoladh in front.

Monvoe won at 9.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Faoladh

Prominent · 3

Proleek PrinceOhmaliDynamic Force

Midfield · 8

God KnowsBucaneer's SpiritRappellLand Of The GiantsJava WoodRockbury LadMoyassrSheamus Seimhiu

Hold Up · 5

MonvoePerfect JudgementBay Of DreamsBattle BorneLough Leane

Faoladh is the lone confirmed front-runner and will dictate from the gates, with Dynamic Force, Ohmali and Proleek Prince the only other prominent runners in this 17-horse field. With such a small pace contingent, Faoladh can roll along comfortably without serious pressure, creating a sustainable tempo that may not truly test stamina. The majority hold-up horses will need to rely on tactical speed rather than grinding power. This race shape clearly favours horses with tactical pace who can position handily rather than true hold-up horses who need a strong gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Faoladh gets an easy lead and the pace stays moderate throughout

The front-runner can dictate ideal fractions and kick clear when the field closes, while hold-up horses struggle with insufficient pace to aim at. Horses like Land Of The Giants and Lough Leane who can track closer benefit most.

FaoladhLand Of The GiantsLough LeaneBay Of Dreams

Mid-Race Pace Injection

30% probability

If Dynamic Force or Ohmali inject pace from the 4f pole to pressure Faoladh

This creates the stronger gallop that hold-up horses need, allowing closers with tactical speed to time their runs perfectly. Bay Of Dreams and Monvoe can exploit the increased tempo.

Bay Of DreamsMonvoePerfect JudgementBucaneer's Spirit

Late Pace Collapse

15% probability

If Faoladh goes too fast early trying to shake off trackers

The leader ties up in the final furlong, creating a sprint finish that suits horses held up with finishing kicks. Bucaneer's Spirit and Perfect Judgement can capitalise despite the weak pace.

Bucaneer's SpiritPerfect JudgementRappellGod Knows

Prominent Tracker Victory

10% probability

If one of the prominent runners successfully stalks and outkicks Faoladh

Dynamic Force or Ohmali get the perfect trip tracking the leader and have enough left to forge clear. The hold-up division remains too far back to impact.

Dynamic ForceOhmaliProleek PrinceJava Wood

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Faoladh getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive given the lack of other pace pressers in this large field

WATCH

Watch if Dynamic Force can overcome the 253-day layoff to provide genuine pace pressure from a prominent position

WATCH

Monvoe carries just 128lbs with the 4lb claimer and represents the most progressive profile if getting the right pace

NOTE

Land Of The Giants showed good tactical speed in recent wins and may be able to track closer than most hold-up types

NOTE

Bay Of Dreams has been running well in defeat recently and could benefit if any mid-race pace develops

6:47 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Diamond Exchange v Timeless CharmHISTORIC

How it ran

Chica Guerrera and Timeless Charm led, as the map showed.

Diamond Exchange won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Diamond ExchangeTimeless Charm

Prominent · 3

Chica GuerreraGreat MoverInthesmallhours

Midfield · 3

TatumStar MindCasheldale Lass

Hold Up · 3

Summer SnowEastern PeaceTofino

Timeless Charm and Diamond Exchange will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front runners likely to set a solid gallop over this extended trip. Great Mover and Chica Guerrera should track prominently behind the leaders, while the majority of the field including Summer Snow, Star Mind, and Tatum will settle back and look to come with late runs. The honest early pace set by two natural leaders should create ideal conditions for the hold-up horses to unleash sustained finishes. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up performers who can capitalise on the likely strong gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If the early pace proves testing with Timeless Charm and Diamond Exchange going hard early

The strong gallop will set up perfect conditions for the back-markers to sweep past tiring leaders in the final furlong. Summer Snow and Star Mind are best positioned to exploit this scenario with their proven finishing kicks.

Summer SnowStar MindTatumEastern Peace

Prominent Trackers Strike

25% probability

If Great Mover and Chica Guerrera can secure ideal tracking positions behind the leaders

They'll have the tactical advantage of avoiding both the early burn-up and the traffic problems that could hinder the hold-up horses. Great Mover's recent consistent form makes him the prime beneficiary of this tactical scenario.

Great MoverChica GuerreraInthesmallhoursDiamond Exchange

Front Runner Survives

10% probability

If one of the leaders gets an easier time than expected with the other folding early

Diamond Exchange's recent winning form suggests she could sustain a bold show throughout if getting loose on the lead. Her proven stamina at this trip makes her the most likely to resist late challenges.

Diamond ExchangeTimeless CharmGreat MoverInthesmallhours

Pace Collapse Benefits All

5% probability

If both front runners come back to the field creating a messy, slowly-run affair

The race becomes a sprint finish where ratings and recent form become paramount over running styles. This scenario would favour the highest-rated horses regardless of their preferred tactics.

Summer SnowChica GuerreraStar MindGreat Mover

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Timeless Charm could stop quickly if the 204-day layoff tells against her stamina reserves

WATCH

Traffic problems could severely hinder the hold-up horses Summer Snow and Star Mind if the pace isn't strong enough

NOTE

Diamond Exchange's early tactics will be crucial - if she gets loose on the lead she becomes very dangerous

WATCH

Great Mover needs to secure the ideal tracking position early to capitalise on the expected strong pace

NOTE

The two apprentice riders on Star Mind and Casheldale Lass could struggle with tactical positioning in a competitive handicap

7:22 — Saval Beg Levmoss Stakes (Group 3)

1m6f · Good · G3 · 6 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dallas Star led, as the map showed.

Scandinavia won at 1.22 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

ScandinaviaDallas StarMont St Michel

Prominent · 1

Happy Pharoah

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Le DestrierLeinster

Scandinavia, Dallas Star and Mont St Michel will ensure a strong gallop from the outset over this stamina-sapping 1m6f trip. With three confirmed front runners in a small field, the pace will be genuine throughout, testing stamina reserves to the maximum. The relentless gallop will set up the race for horses that can stay and finish strongly from off the pace. This race shape heavily favours hold-up horses and closers who can capitalise on the inevitable pace collapse.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the three front runners go too fast early and compromise each other

The strong pace will set up perfectly for Le Destrier and Leinster to sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong. Both hold-up specialists will have maximum opportunity to unleash their finishing kicks.

Le DestrierLeinsterHappy PharoahScandinavia

Scandinavia Survives Battle

25% probability

If Scandinavia can get first run on his rivals and kick clear

His superior class (OR 117) and recent winning form gives him the best chance to withstand the pressure and maintain his advantage. Ryan Moore's tactical brilliance could prove decisive in managing the pace battle.

ScandinaviaHappy PharoahLe DestrierLeinster

Moderate Early Pace

12% probability

If Dallas Star and Mont St Michel don't show their usual early speed

The pace could become more tactical, allowing prominent runners like Happy Pharoah to get into contention earlier. This would neutralise the hold-up horses' advantage and create a more open finish.

Happy PharoahScandinaviaDallas StarLeinster

Front Runner Surprises

8% probability

If Dallas Star or Mont St Michel get an uncontested lead

One of the outsider front runners could steal a march if the others don't engage early enough. However, their inferior class ratings make this the least likely outcome against this field.

Dallas StarMont St MichelScandinaviaHappy Pharoah

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Scandinavia must be watched for how aggressively Ryan Moore engages in the early pace battle - too keen could cost him late

WATCH

Le Destrier's 691-day absence is a significant concern despite Mullins' skill at getting them ready first time back

WATCH

Dallas Star and Mont St Michel's pace duel could become so intense they eliminate each other from contention

NOTE

Happy Pharoah's headgear change (tongue tie) suggests connections are looking for improved performance

NOTE

The genuine Good going conditions will suit all runners with no significant surface concerns evident

7:57 — Mervue Equine Supplements Handicap

1m5f · Good · HCAP · 20 runners

Numidia likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Masego led; the map had Numidia in front.

Masego won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Numidia

Prominent · 3

Eastern WindMarians GalCreative Dancer

Midfield · 10

AmavasyaVivacious LadyMaxwell SmartMiners CabinVoice Of NortheastReal PetiteJuralityShakitaMasegoBang Po

Hold Up · 6

TassaroloEvening's EmpireChurch MountainFelicity SmoakAutocratTrishuli River

Numidia stands as the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from the outset with Eastern Wind and Marians Gal providing the only prominent support. This setup creates a controlled tempo with minimal early pressure, allowing Numidia to bowl along at a sustainable gallop through the early and middle stages. The large field of 20 runners means the hold-up brigade including Trishuli River, Maxwell Smart, and Amavasya will be bunched towards the rear, relying on late finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those who can track the pace closely, as the lack of early speed pressure will leave too much to do for the pure hold-up merchants.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Numidia maintains an uncontested lead through reasonable fractions

The lack of pace pressure allows the leader to kick clear turning for home while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from too far back. Prominent runners tracking the pace get first run on the weakening leader.

NumidiaEastern WindMarians GalCreative Dancer

Prominent Tracker Triumph

30% probability

If Eastern Wind or Marians Gal sit perfectly behind Numidia's moderate gallop

The prominent runners get the ideal trip tracking a steady pace before swooping past the tiring leader in the final furlong. They have enough left to hold off the late closers who leave their runs too late.

Eastern WindMarians GalNumidiaMaxwell Smart

Late Surge Success

15% probability

If the early pace proves too slow and sets up a sprint finish

The lack of early speed creates a bunched field turning for home, allowing the best finishers with tactical speed to unleash decisive late kicks. Quality hold-up horses with recent form strike gold.

Trishuli RiverMaxwell SmartAmavasyaJurality

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Numidia folds early leaving no pace in the race

The contest becomes a messy tactical affair with no clear tempo, suiting horses who can quicken from any position rather than pure front-runners or hold-up specialists.

Church MountainAutocratTassaroloJurality

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Numidia must be monitored for early pace judgement as sole front-runner in 20-runner field

WATCH

Eastern Wind and Marians Gal need to secure ideal tracking positions behind Numidia early

WATCH

Trishuli River requires genuine pace development to unleash finishing kick from hold-up position

NOTE

Multiple hold-up horses with finishing concerns including Vivacious Lady and Autocrat face tactical difficulties

NOTE

Several horses returning from lengthy absences including Evening's Empire and Voice Of Northeast need market support

8:30 — Women In Racing Lady Riders Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Poetic Sound likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Touch The Moon led; the map had Poetic Sound in front.

The Real Screamer won at 11.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Poetic Sound

Prominent · 3

Touch The MoonNakaseroAutumn Twist

Midfield · 3

Soaring SunDruckerDerry Lad

Hold Up · 3

JabbarStar HarbourThe Real Screamer

Poetic Sound and Touch The Moon will contest the early lead with Soaring Sun, Autumn Twist and Nakasero sitting prominently behind. This creates a genuine pace with multiple front-runners ensuring no dawdling early fractions. The sustained gallop over 1m4f will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the final three furlongs. This pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses who can conserve energy and finish fastest when the pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent runners go too fast early creating a strong gallop

The sustained pace will find out the front-runners in the final furlong as they tire from their exertions. Late-running horses like Star Harbour, Jabbar and Drucker can pick up the pieces with their finishing kicks.

Star HarbourJabbarDruckerThe Real Screamer

Prominent Runner Survives

25% probability

If Touch The Moon or Autumn Twist can dictate at a controlled tempo

Either horse can use their class advantage to dominate from the front while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the good going. Their prominent style allows them to quicken when it matters most.

Touch The MoonAutumn TwistNakaseroSoaring Sun

Poetic Sound Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If Poetic Sound gets an uncontested lead and slows the pace significantly

The front-runner can conserve energy early and has enough left to resist late challengers over this stamina test. The 206-day break becomes less relevant if the pace is steady throughout.

Poetic SoundSoaring SunTouch The MoonAutumn Twist

Drucker Form Continuation

8% probability

If the recent Stayers' Hurdles form translates directly to this handicap contest

The improving four-year-old can overcome the style bias with superior current form and fitness levels. His recent win at this trip gives him a significant confidence boost over these older rivals.

DruckerThe Real ScreamerJabbarStar Harbour

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Poetic Sound's 206-day layoff could see her tire badly in the final furlong despite getting an easy lead

WATCH

Touch The Moon's 351-day absence may tell late despite her class advantage and recent barrier trial

NOTE

Autumn Twist's new nose roll headgear suggests breathing problems that could affect her prominent running style

WATCH

The jockeys are all claiming significant weight allowances which could impact tactical race-riding decisions

NOTE

Star Harbour's recent consistent form and fresh appearance makes her the most reliable each-way option

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 15 May 2026.

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