Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:50 — Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden
7f · Good · MDN · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:24 — Bulmers Live At Leopardstown Apprentice Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners
Faoladh likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Dynamic Force led; the map had Faoladh in front.
Ardadslosttheplot won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
7 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Faoladh
Prominent · 1
Comfort Line
Midfield · 9
RodeeveFrosted SkyDynamic ForcePrime SignDawn FlameCordouanMehmarNotforalongtimeSmaoineamh Sile
Hold Up · 4
ArdadslosttheplotArdeurBear RightGod Knows
Faoladh is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 15-horse field at 7f on good ground at Leopardstown, and with no genuine rival disputing the lead, Sam Coen can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front without expending energy in a pace battle. The field is overwhelmingly populated by hold-up and midfield types, meaning Faoladh sets the tempo entirely on its own terms — the pace is unlikely to be genuinely strong, which compresses the finish and makes it harder for true closers to generate the momentum they need. Several horses tagged as redistributed — Rodeeve, Frosted Sky, Dynamic Force, Prime Sign, Cordouan, Mehmar, Notforalongtime, Smaoineamh Sile and Dawn Flame — are genuine hold-up types who cannot all find their natural deep position in a field this large, meaning some will race closer than ideal, further muddying late sectionals. This race shape strongly favours horses who can travel prominently behind the leader or race in the first third of the field, as the modest pace set by a lone front-runner on good ground at Leopardstown will reward those who stay in touch throughout rather than those relying on a late burst from well off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Faoladh Leads Unchallenged
54% probability
If Faoladh bowls along at a controlled pace and the chasing pack fail to close the gap until it is too late.
Faoladh, uncontested up front, dictates a moderate gallop that suits its stamina profile at 7f on good ground, and with no horse applying early pressure, it can conserve energy through the middle section before quickening clear late. Prominent racers who track Faoladh closely — particularly Comfort Line and Ardadslosttheplot — are best placed to challenge, but the advantage lies with the horse in front controlling the fractions.
FaoladhComfort LineArdadslosttheplotBear Right
B
Prominent Chasers Pounce
26% probability
If the pace is genuine enough to stretch Faoladh in the final furlong, allowing a prominent tracker to sweep past close home.
Comfort Line, a veteran course performer who has placed twice over this trip on good ground, can sit a close second and pounce when Faoladh's effort levels in the final 100 yards; Ardadslosttheplot, who showed good form at 7f on good ground when third, is another that could benefit from this shape. This scenario suits those racing in the first four or five at halfway who can unleash a late kick without needing a searching pace to set it up.
Comfort LineArdadslosttheplotBear RightGod Knows
C
Midfield Runner Stays On
13% probability
If the pace is slightly stronger than expected and a midfield horse sustains its run through the final two furlongs to catch tiring leaders.
Bear Right, who has placed three times over similar trips and can travel comfortably in mid-division, is the likeliest beneficiary if legs start to tire in front; Ardeur has the profile to close late on good ground having shown some ability at this level. This scenario is moderately discounted because so many of the nominal midfield occupants are redistributed hold-up types who may not produce the sustained finishing effort the shape requires.
Bear RightArdeurGod KnowsNotforalongtime
D
Late Closers Storm Home
7% probability
If the pace somehow becomes significantly stronger, opening the race up for true hold-up horses coming from deep.
This is the least likely outcome given Faoladh's unchallenged lead and the near-certain moderate gallop; even if a redistributed horse like Rodeeve or God Knows finds a clear run, the compressed finish on a controlled pace leaves minimal room for deep closers to deliver their best. The high STYLE_FIT discounts and multiple redistribution flags across this group make a late-sweeping winner the lowest-probability shape in this race.
God KnowsRodeeveArdeurNotforalongtime
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Faoladh sets every fraction unchallenged — watch whether Sam Coen allows a genuine gallop or throttles back so severely that the field bunches behind, as that is the pivotal tactical variable in this race.
WATCH
Comfort Line and Ardadslosttheplot are the most likely horses to apply pressure in the straight — if either tracks Faoladh within two lengths at the furlong pole, the lead could be swallowed up quickly on good ground at Leopardstown.
WATCH
Multiple redistributed hold-up types — including Rodeeve, Dynamic Force and Frosted Sky — may push forward out of their comfort zone in the first two furlongs as riders jostle for position in a 15-runner field, which could briefly spike the early pace before the field settles.
NOTE
Bear Right carries headgear and has consistent place form over 7f-8f; watch how Keithen Kennedy positions it at halfway, as a prominent mid-race move could make it a factor if the race compresses late.
NOTE
Prime Sign and Dawn Flame both carry finish-fade flags and have run very recently (5 days); if either appears prominent in early exchanges, expect them to weaken significantly inside the final two furlongs.
6:00 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden
1m · Good · MDN · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:35 — Dublin To Bahrain Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
How'sthebai likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Exquisite Acclaim led; the map had How'sthebai in front.
Loughrea won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
How'sthebai
Prominent · 2
AviatriceLoughrea
Midfield · 2
Quatre BrasTachos
Hold Up · 2
Invincible WillExquisite Acclaim
How'sthebai is the lone confirmed front runner and, with no genuine rival disputing the lead, is set to control the pace from the outset at a sustainable, self-dictated tempo over this flat mile at Leopardstown. That controlled early gallop will likely produce a race where position is currency — prominent racers who can sit just off the leader and maintain contact through the middle stages are best placed to strike. This field contains more prominent types than the front of the race can accommodate: Quatre Bras and Tachos are genuine front-running or prominent horses by nature but have been mapped to midfield because Aviatrice and Loughrea are better placed to secure their preferred positions in this shape. A steady, uncontested pace with a compressed field approaching the straight strongly favours horses racing prominently — those who can track the leader and produce their effort early in the home straight — rather than true hold-up types who will need a strong gallop to generate the gaps they require.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Tracker Strikes
68% probability
If How'sthebai sets a controlled solo lead and Aviatrice or Loughrea track closely to pounce turning in.
How'sthebai's uncontested, unhurried gallop creates a steadily-run mile where the horses sitting second and third have the race set up perfectly for them; those with the tactical speed to quicken off a modest pace will dominate.
AviatriceLoughreaInvincible WillHow'sthebai
B
Leader Holds On
14% probability
If How'sthebai dictates an even pace and the field fails to close through a flat, uncontested home straight.
A single front runner with no pressure can conserve enough energy to outstay challengers when the pace has been metronomic; Colin Keane's positioning and experience makes this a live alternative.
How'sthebaiAviatriceLoughreaInvincible Will
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
11% probability
If the pace quickens sufficiently through the middle of the race to string the field out and create a genuine run-in.
Invincible Will has the profile to finish powerfully if the race develops into a proper test, with his best form coming when able to close late on good ground; Exquisite Acclaim is another that needs the race truly run to get competitive.
Invincible WillExquisite AcclaimLoughreaAviatrice
D
Redistributed Type Capitalises
7% probability
If Quatre Bras or Tachos manages to break smartly and reclaim their natural prominent position despite the field's composition.
These horses are genuine forwardly-placed types by inclination and if the race shape allows one of them to slot in ahead of expectations they could outrun their reassigned roles; the probability is marked down significantly because their mapped positions reflect genuine competition for ground at the front.
Quatre BrasTachosHow'sthebaiAviatrice
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether How'sthebai actually commits to the lead from the gate — if Colin Keane elects to settle him rather than force the pace, the entire race shape collapses and the field will have no true pacesetter.
WATCH
Quatre Bras runs for the second time in four days; if fatigue sets in after a fast early break the field behind him could be bunched and a messy race unfolds, particularly affecting Invincible Will and Exquisite Acclaim's ability to find a clear run.
WATCH
Aviatrice carries 140lbs — the highest weight in the race — and while her form entitles her to that mark, the combination of top weight and a mile at Leopardstown on unknown going deserves monitoring as the race develops.
NOTE
Loughrea's trainer-jockey combination (Andrew Slattery dual role) is low-profile but has recorded a 3% strike rate over 14 days; worth watching whether the booking of Slattery to ride his own horse signals significant stable confidence following back-to-back placings.
7:10 — BOYLE Sports Meld Stakes (Group 3)
1m1f · Good · G3 · 6 runners
Geryon likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Snellen led; the map had Geryon in front.
Geryon won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Geryon
Prominent · 1
Adelaide River
Midfield · 3
SnellenIsaac NewtonSyzygy
Hold Up · 1
Cowardofthecounty
Geryon is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with just six runners over 1m1f at Leopardstown, Colin Keane will be able to dictate an unchallenged, metronomic gallop from the front — there is no rival willing or able to pressure him early. Adelaide River will look to press from a prominent berth and is the only horse likely to genuinely share the early lead, but she lacks the raw pace to force a true test, meaning Geryon controls tempo entirely. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than the race shape can accommodate — Snellen, Isaac Newton, and Syzygy are all natural pace-side horses who will be squeezed into a midfield role they do not naturally suit, making their tasks harder. This race shape firmly favours horses who can track a controlled pace and produce a sustained late run — a prominent-to-midfield tracker or a horse with a strong finishing kick from just off the pace is the profile that benefits most here.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Geryon Controls, Holds On
65% probability
If Geryon's uncontested lead produces a steady, controlled gallop that fails to fully bring out closers.
Keane rolls Geryon to the front unchallenged, sets an honest but not punishing tempo, and the horse's natural relaxed racing style allows it to conserve enough energy to resist late challengers into the Leopardstown straight; at OR 106 with strong good-ground form (6/7 sim-going) and a younger horse's residual freshness, it has the class to sustain.
GeryonAdelaide RiverSnellenIsaac Newton
B
Tracker Pounces Late
19% probability
If the pace is just steady enough to allow a well-positioned tracker to swoop in the final furlong without blowing up.
Adelaide River, tracking Geryon closely from the second position, gets the perfect rails-run into the straight and picks up when the leader tires, her strong 1W4P record at similar going validating the trip and conditions; McMonagle's aggressive front-rank riding style means she rarely gets caught flat-footed when the race quickens.
Adelaide RiverSnellenGeryonIsaac Newton
C
Midfield Horse Springs Surprise
11% probability
If the pace collapses or accelerates sharply enough in the straight to catch the leader but reward a late, sustained run from off the pace.
Isaac Newton or Snellen, racing against their natural prominent instincts from a midfield berth, gets a clean passage into the straight and benefits if the front two tire; both carry STYLE_FIT discounts and their redistribution to midfield works against them, but OR 105 ratings mean they hold the class to feature if the shape breaks their way.
Isaac NewtonSnellenCowardofthecountySyzygy
D
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
5% probability
If a truly fast early tempo develops and decimates the front end, handing the race to a genuine closer.
Cowardofthecounty is the only authentic hold-up runner in the field and would benefit uniquely from a collapse of the front-runners, but with Geryon likely to face zero early pressure this scenario is highly unlikely; the horse's recent form (0-8213) and drop back from sprint distances also temper expectations.
CowardofthecountySyzygyAdelaide RiverGeryon
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Snellen, Isaac Newton, or Syzygy attempt to challenge Geryon for the lead in the first furlong — if any of them do, the entire pace dynamic shifts from a controlled solo lead to a contested gallop that could open the race up for Cowardofthecounty.
WATCH
Monitor Geryon's early splits: if Keane sets a genuinely slow tempo through the first half-mile, the race risks turning into a sprint finish that negates class differences and could flatter any of the midfield types who find cover.
WATCH
Adelaide River's positioning in the first two furlongs is critical — if McMonagle cannot secure second place directly behind Geryon and gets squeezed back by the redistributed prominent horses, her race is effectively over before the straight.
NOTE
Cowardofthecounty is worth tracking for market moves close to post time; a hold-up horse in a race with one confirmed front-runner is at structural disadvantage, but if punters have intelligence on a faster-than-expected pace, late support here would be meaningful.
NOTE
Isaac Newton ran in a Grade 1 at the Curragh last time and drops back significantly in class today — watch whether AP O'Brien's team view this as a confidence-restoring opportunity or a genuine Group 3 target, as the jockey booking of Wayne Lordan rather than Ryan Moore is a notable downgrade worth factoring.
7:45 — Mervue Equine Handicap
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
En Or likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Out On Friday led; the map had En Or in front.
Marmeladova won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
En Or
Prominent · 3
DalerUnterbergNeo Smart
Midfield · 2
Faro IslandBlackjack Hills
Hold Up · 3
MarmeladovaSinbad My DadOut On Friday
En Or is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rival to push him through the early stages, he should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m2f trip. The field does contain more prominent-running types than the pace map can accommodate — Faro Island and Blackjack Hills are natural pace/prominent horses who are unlikely to secure those positions in this configuration, meaning En Or leads largely on his own terms. Daler, Unterberg, and Neo Smart will fill the prominent berths directly behind, but none has the profile to pressure En Or aggressively, keeping the tempo honest rather than fierce. A steady-to-moderate gallop run by a single uncontested leader over this distance on Good turf strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finishing effort — Marmeladova's consistent good-ground form and Sinbad My Dad's stamina profile both fit that bill, provided they can find daylight off a contained pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
En Or Controls, Closers Strike
62% probability
If En Or bowls along uncontested and sets a steady-moderate gallop that sets up a real finish in the straight.
En Or dictates throughout without pressure and the race is run at a tempo that plays into the hands of hold-up horses with genuine finishing kicks over this distance. Marmeladova, with eight runs on Good ground and a solid recent placed record at 1m2f, is ideally positioned to pounce, while Sinbad My Dad's stamina could also come into play.
MarmeladovaSinbad My DadDalerBlackjack Hills
B
Prominent Types Dominate
18% probability
If the early pace is genuinely slow and the prominent horses coast into a winning position without being overhauled.
En Or and Daler settle close to the pace and never face a sustained challenge from behind, with the hold-up horses failing to close the gap from the rear in the straight. Daler, back up in distance after a winning effort at 9f on soft ground, could find this combination of trip and steady pace very much in his favour, while Unterberg's recent stamina form at 1m2f is also relevant.
DalerUnterbergEn OrNeo Smart
C
Pace Collapses, Late Charge
12% probability
If En Or goes too quick early or the pace is uneven, causing prominent horses to tire and leaving the race wide open in the final two furlongs.
A collapse in the front-running effort creates a vacuum that genuine hold-up horses can exploit if they have covered the ground economically, though Out On Friday's noted tendency to fade makes him an unreliable beneficiary. Marmeladova again emerges as the most likely winner of this shape given her strong Good-ground record and the consistent placed efforts she has accumulated in recent months.
MarmeladovaFaro IslandSinbad My DadBlackjack Hills
D
Chaos, No Clear Shape
8% probability
If the pace proves unpredictable due to jostling among the prominent types and the race devolves into a messy, tactical affair.
Multiple horses attempt to find a prominent position early, disrupting the expected settled rhythm and producing a race where class and adaptability matter most. Colin Keane's experience on Daler could prove decisive in a scrappy contest, and Marmeladova's tactical versatility under W J Lee may also help her navigate the trouble.
DalerMarmeladovaUnterbergFaro Island
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Marmeladova is the horse to watch in the straight — if En Or's uncontested lead produces the expected steady gallop, W J Lee will be angling her out for a run from the two-furlong pole and her Good-ground closing record makes her the most dangerous finisher.
WATCH
En Or's 43-day absence and step back in trip from 14-16f to 1m2f is worth monitoring at the start — if he jumps sluggishly or surrenders the lead early, the entire pace dynamic collapses and the race becomes far less predictable.
WATCH
Faro Island is a natural prominent runner forced into a midfield position by the race shape — watch whether Dylan Browne McMonagle attempts to push forward from the outset; if he does, it will increase pressure on En Or and meaningfully change the pace scenario.
NOTE
Daler's viability in Scenario A depends entirely on whether he has the stamina to see out 1m2f on Good ground — his wins have come at 9-10f and if the pace is steady his prominent position could leave him vulnerable to closers in the final furlong.
NOTE
Out On Friday's fade flag and double-figure finishes on Good ground at this trip suggest he is a horse to oppose rather than follow — if he appears to be travelling well at the two-furlong marker, treat it with caution given the pattern in his form.
8:20 — BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap
1m5f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Cala Bonita likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Cooley's Mist led; the map had Cala Bonita in front.
Cooley's Mist won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Cala Bonita
Prominent · 1
Killyclogher Rose
Midfield · 2
TatumCooley's Mist
Hold Up · 2
Ob La DiDerry Lad
Cala Bonita is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine rival to press her, should control pace from the outset over this 1m5f trip at Leopardstown, creating a measured, sustainable gallop that suits those tracking close. Killyclogher Rose will look to sit prominently just behind, while the hold-up pair of Ob La Di and Derry Lad will need that gallop to sharpen late. The field holds more prominent-minded types than the map can accommodate — Tatum and Cooley's Mist are natural front-rank horses but, with Cala Bonita and Killyclogher Rose already filling those slots, both are likely to find themselves racing a position or two deeper than they would prefer. With one unchallenged pace-setter and a controlled tempo expected, this race shape strongly favours horses positioned prominently just off the leader — able to respond when the race ignites in the final two furlongs — rather than hold-up horses relying on a searching gallop that simply may not materialise.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Cala Bonita Controls, Stalkers Strike
68% probability
If Cala Bonita sets a moderate unchallenged pace and the race is decided by those tracking closest into the straight.
Cala Bonita dictates on her own terms and kicks turning for home, but the horses ranged immediately behind — particularly Killyclogher Rose — are ideally placed to pounce as the leader ties up; at 1m5f the trip tests Cala Bonita's stamina and those with a prominent stalking position reap the reward.
Killyclogher RoseCala BonitaTatumOb La Di
B
Hold-Up Horses Finish Strong
14% probability
If the pace is deceptively honest and the closing stages open up for those coming from off the pace.
Ob La Di, suited to good ground and operating over a staying trip, gets a clear run through and makes up ground late; Ben Coen's enterprise in the saddle could unlock a position earlier than the horse's natural style suggests, giving the hold-up brigade a genuine shot.
Ob La DiDerry LadTatumCooley's Mist
C
Cala Bonita Front-Runs And Wins
11% probability
If the tempo is truly pedestrian and Cala Bonita's lead becomes insurmountable before rivals can organise a challenge.
Racing fresh off just a five-day turnaround and on going that suits, Cala Bonita is never headed and the chasing pack simply runs out of track; this scenario relies on the pace being too slow for any finisher to reel her in.
Cala BonitaKillyclogher RoseTatumCooley's Mist
D
Redistributed Pair Force Their Way Through
7% probability
If Tatum or Cooley's Mist manage to secure a forward position despite being mapped back and turn it into a race-winning advantage.
Dylan Browne McMonagle's positive riding could push Tatum into a better spot than the map allows, leveraging his course-and-distance winning form over 13f on good ground; however, with both horses tagged out of their natural role, this remains the least likely scenario and their STYLE_FIT discount dampens expectation.
TatumCooley's MistKillyclogher RoseOb La Di
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Killyclogher Rose's positioning is crucial — watch whether WJ Lee sends her forward quickly to lock onto Cala Bonita's heels, because if she does she is racing in the perfect slot for this shape.
WATCH
Tatum's early move: if Dylan Browne McMonagle pushes forward aggressively from the gate to reclaim his natural prominent position ahead of Cooley's Mist, the pace dynamic could tighten and alter the tempo calculation entirely.
WATCH
Cala Bonita ran just five days ago — monitor market moves for any sign of freshness concern; a tired front-runner setting a slow pace could paradoxically make it easier for hold-up types to close.
NOTE
Derry Lad's fade flag is worth tracking at the 2f pole — if he is travelling well at that point it may signal the pace was slower than expected, but past patterns suggest he will be stopping when others are going.
NOTE
Ob La Di's sim-going record is only 1W1P from 10 runs on comparable ground, meaning good ground alone does not guarantee her best — watch whether Ben Coen opts for a more forward position to compensate for the expected lack of pace.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.