Faoladh is the one confirmed front-runner in this 17-runner field and, with no natural rival to push him from the gates, he should be able to dictate a measured, controlled gallop from the front over Leopardstown's flat seven furlongs on Good turf. That single-pace-setter scenario typically produces a sustainable tempo rather than a searingly honest one, meaning the race is unlikely to fall apart into a sprint finish — instead, Faoladh's lead should hold shape long enough to give a clear advantage to horses who can sit close behind him without burning energy. The field contains a significant surplus of prominent-running types — Mickey The Steel, Irish Rumour, Eichan San and Perfect Base are all natural pace horses who cannot all occupy their preferred spots — and the jostling for position behind Faoladh will create a compressed midpack that suits horses with tactical fluency over those who need a clear run off a searching gallop. This race shape strongly favours horses who can sit second or third off a controlled lead and sustain their effort into the final two furlongs, rather than hold-up horses waiting for a pace collapse that may never arrive.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Faoladh Controls, Front Wins
48% probability
If Faoladh bowls along uncontested and the prominent pack behind him settles without overdoing it, allowing him to dictate throughout.
If Faoladh bowls along uncontested and the prominent pack behind him settles without overdoing it, allowing him to dictate throughout.
FaoladhSend HarryPerfect BaseReposado
B
Prominent Surge, Place Battle
28% probability
If one of the surplus prominent types — Mickey The Steel or Irish Rumour — manages to slot just behind Faoladh and the pace remains controlled, setting up a grinding two-furlong duel.
If one of the surplus prominent types — Mickey The Steel or Irish Rumour — manages to slot just behind Faoladh and the pace remains controlled, setting up a grinding two-furlong duel.
ReposadoGoal ExceededLoingseoirSend Harry
C
Closers Too Late
13% probability
If the pace quickens mid-race and hold-up horses make eye-catching late runs that just fall short of the leaders.
If the pace quickens mid-race and hold-up horses make eye-catching late runs that just fall short of the leaders.
Phoenix PaircHexagonalArdeurApache Outlaw
D
Scrappy, Compressed Finish
11% probability
If the surplus of prominent types creates early crowding and a bunched midrace scenario that degenerates into a sprint finish over the final two furlongs.
If the surplus of prominent types creates early crowding and a bunched midrace scenario that degenerates into a sprint finish over the final two furlongs.
Goal ExceededFree SoloEichan SanLoingseoir
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Faoladh's lead could be challenged far sooner than expected if Mickey The Steel, Irish Rumour or Eichan San all press forward at the break — watch the first two furlongs for overcrowding that could disrupt the anticipated controlled tempo.
WATCH
The 234-day absence of Buttermere Ridge combined with its flagged fading-finish pattern makes it a horse to watch for signs of distress in the final furlong — it may set a false market impression early if it travels well mid-race.
WATCH
Perfect Base drops in age group and returns from 262 days off — if the horse shows any signs of greenness or ring rustiness at the start, its natural prominent style could see it caught in a tough position with no momentum.
NOTE
Phoenix Pairc with Declan McDonogh after 181 days off is a horse to track through the race — McDonogh rarely wastes a ride, and if the horse is cherry-ripe on its return, the 7f Good profile fits and it could improve sharply through the field late.
NOTE
Goal Exceeded's yard (Adrian McGuinness, 3 winners from 22 runners in 14 days) is in a strong vein of form — watch the market for any move that suggests the trainer has this one primed from a 30-day break.
5:45 — Bulmers Live Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Running Point likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Running Point led, as the map showed.
Heliogabalus won at 15.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
7 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Running Point
Prominent · 6
Ocean EchoZaraahmandoSmithfieldBucaneer's SpiritCosmic FunkGo Out
Midfield · 6
Bay Of DreamsFleetfootsoldierMillhoneNavajo PointVerhoyenSayfa Fad
Hold Up · 5
Local LadHeliogabalusBattle BornePerfect JudgementDawn Flame
Running Point is the one confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger pressing for the lead, should settle into a comfortable, uncontested gallop around the Leopardstown mile on good ground. The field behind is congested with prominent-minded horses — Bay Of Dreams, Fleetfootsoldier, Zaraahmando, Bucaneer's Spirit, Smithfield and Go Out all want to race handy — meaning several will be shuffled back from their natural position and forced to race out of role. This field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure their preferred spot; of those, Zaraahmando and Bucaneer's Spirit are best-placed to actually win the battle for early real estate given their form and handlers' recent strike rates, with Bay Of Dreams and Fleetfootsoldier the most likely to be displaced into midfield against their instincts. A sustainable, unhurried pace set by a lone leader on fast ground over a mile typically sets up a strongly run home straight where prominent horses who travel close to the frugal pace and quicken at the two-furlong pole hold the significant advantage over true hold-up types, whose finishing kicks may arrive just too late on a track that tends to reward those who race with cover but close to the action.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls Race
47% probability
If Running Point bowls along unchallenged and sets a fair-but-not-suicidal pace, allowing prominent horses travelling just behind to pounce at the two-furlong pole.
If Running Point bowls along unchallenged and sets a fair-but-not-suicidal pace, allowing prominent horses travelling just behind to pounce at the two-furlong pole.
If Zaraahmando, Bucaneer's Spirit and Smithfield all press forward and the early pace quickens, creating a genuinely contested lead that stretches the field.
If Zaraahmando, Bucaneer's Spirit and Smithfield all press forward and the early pace quickens, creating a genuinely contested lead that stretches the field.
SmithfieldCosmic FunkZaraahmandoOcean Echo
C
Hold-Up Types Finish Fast
16% probability
If the pace collapses in the straight and horses from the rear of midfield get an unobstructed run through to exploit a tiring front rank.
If the pace collapses in the straight and horses from the rear of midfield get an unobstructed run through to exploit a tiring front rank.
Local LadHeliogabalusPerfect JudgementDawn Flame
D
Chaos Scramble — No Pattern
10% probability
If the large 18-runner field produces significant trouble in running, with prominent horses checked or hampered at a crucial stage in the final quarter-mile.
If the large 18-runner field produces significant trouble in running, with prominent horses checked or hampered at a crucial stage in the final quarter-mile.
Ocean EchoCosmic FunkBucaneer's SpiritGo Out
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bay Of Dreams and Fleetfootsoldier are true prominent types mapped to midfield — if either recovers its natural position early and travels close to Running Point's sustainable pace, it becomes a genuine danger that the market may underestimate.
WATCH
Navajo Point returns from 402 days off and, combined with the fades-in-finish tag and redistribution note, it could be slow to begin and create significant early interference in an already crowded 18-runner field — watch the first two furlongs carefully.
WATCH
Running Point's STYLE_FIT flag (0.90) and a disappointing last run 38 days ago mean the lone leader is not guaranteed to sustain its gallop; if it ties up approaching the final furlong, the entire pace dynamic collapses and a chaotic finish becomes likely.
NOTE
The Lyons runner Cosmic Funk is worth tracking through the early stages — if Gary Carroll can settle it in a genuine tracking position just off the leaders without fighting for a prominent spot, it could be the most professionally ridden horse in the race given the strength of the booking.
NOTE
Sayfa Fad and Heliogabalus both return from very long absences (261 and 269 days respectively) — monitor them in the
6:20 — BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Rated Race
1m · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners
God Of Power likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
God Of Power led, as the map showed.
Johnny Soda won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
God Of Power
Prominent · 3
Sir BenjiShaftesbury AvenueKrasimir
Midfield · 3
GolddreamHalon BayGlitter And Glory
Hold Up · 2
Red AutumnJohnny Soda
God Of Power is the one confirmed front-runner here and, with only one horse pressing the early tempo, sets up a single-file, controlled gallop that should see him dictate terms at a sustainable pace around Leopardstown's turning 1m track. The redistribution flags on Golddream, Halon Bay, and Glitter And Glory are significant — all three are natural prominent types who cannot all sit where they want, meaning at least two will be shuffled back against their instincts and compromised. With God Of Power uncontested up front and the true prominent positions fought over by Shaftesbury Avenue, Sir Benji, and Krasimir, the pace will be honest but not frantic, producing a race that is likely to be won close to the speed rather than from deep. This shape heavily favours horses who can travel smoothly in the first three or four positions and sustain their effort through the final two furlongs — prominent-to-midfield horses with a strong finishing kick will be best placed, while genuine hold-up horses Red Autumn and Johnny Soda will need an unusually strong pace to generate the run they need.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce
62% probability
If God Of Power dictates a steady, uncontested gallop and the race is won by a horse tracking him in the first four.
If God Of Power dictates a steady, uncontested gallop and the race is won by a horse tracking him in the first four.
Shaftesbury AvenueKrasimirSir BenjiGod Of Power
B
Front-Runner Holds On
18% probability
If the pace is genuinely slow and God Of Power pings the line before the field can reel him in.
If the pace is genuinely slow and God Of Power pings the line before the field can reel him in.
God Of PowerSir BenjiShaftesbury AvenueKrasimir
C
Midfield Types Delivered Late
13% probability
If the pace quickens sharply enough mid-race to string out the field and create a late gap for closers.
If the pace quickens sharply enough mid-race to string out the field and create a late gap for closers.
Halon BayGolddreamRed AutumnGlitter And Glory
D
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
7% probability
If a strong gallop is somehow injected, burning off the prominent horses and leaving the race to genuine closers.
If a strong gallop is somehow injected, burning off the prominent horses and leaving the race to genuine closers.
Red AutumnJohnny SodaGolddreamHalon Bay
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
God Of Power — if he gets even 2-3 lengths clear uncontested after 2f on a flat track, watch whether the chasing pack can coordinate their challenge; isolated front-runners on easy ground at Leopardstown can prove very hard to catch.
WATCH
Golddream, Halon Bay, and Glitter And Glory — all three will be vying for prominent ground that may not exist; monitor the first furlong to see which of them gets shuffled back and loses their natural rhythm.
WATCH
Shaftesbury Avenue — Ben Coen originally named but Jack Cleary (5lb claimer) takes the ride; track whether the inexperienced conditional settles the horse quietly in the first two furlongs, as a bumpy start or unsettled passage could neutralise a strong pace profile.
NOTE
Red Autumn — watch the early sectional; if God Of Power goes very steady, Chris Hayes may choose to push Red Autumn forward earlier than usual to avoid being stranded in a pocket with no pace to close off.
6:50 — 1878 At 3Arena Handicap (Div I)
1m1f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Ella's Gold likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
William F Browne and Akashaa led; the map had Ella's Gold in front.
Chipsrdown won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
ShanlieveWilliam F BrowneMax MeridiusLohengrinGenuine Jim
Ella's Gold is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner 1m1f handicap and, with no genuine rival for the lead, Ben Coen can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front without being pressured into anything reckless. With the pace honest but uncontested, the race is likely to develop at a measured tempo before quickening in the straight, which classically favours horses who can race prominently or just off the pace and have enough finishing speed to capitalise on a clear view — Rampage and Hieloray fit that mould from the prominent group. The field contains a significant overhang of hold-up types: Chipsrdown, Lust, Akashaa, Pinball Wizard, Limestone Red, Nephin Mountain and others are genuine closers but cannot all park at the rear with such a compressed pack, meaning several will be shuffled forward into midfield positions that do not fully suit them. With one pace-setter setting a steady-to-fair tempo and the closers compromised by a congested field, horses able to race prominently in second to fifth position and sustain their effort into the straight are the primary beneficiaries of this race shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Ella's Gold Controls, Prominent Prevails
52% probability
If Ella's Gold sets a fair but uncontested pace and the race develops steadily before quickening in the final two furlongs.
If Ella's Gold sets a fair but uncontested pace and the race develops steadily before quickening in the final two furlongs.
RampageHielorayElla's GoldChipsrdown
B
Hold-Up Horses Break Through
22% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough in the straight to create a wall of beaten horses that the closers can weave through late.
If the pace is genuinely strong enough in the straight to create a wall of beaten horses that the closers can weave through late.
ChipsrdownLustPinball WizardHalf Nutz
C
Ella's Gold Front-to-Finish
17% probability
If the pace is slow enough that Ella's Gold's moderate tempo creates a truly falsely-run race and no one has the momentum to reel her in.
If the pace is slow enough that Ella's Gold's moderate tempo creates a truly falsely-run race and no one has the momentum to reel her in.
Ella's GoldHielorayRampageAkashaa
D
Midfield Chaos, Outsider Strikes
9% probability
If the field concertinas in the early stages and multiple runners are checked or shuffled out of their rhythm, opening the race up for a lower-rated improver.
If the field concertinas in the early stages and multiple runners are checked or shuffled out of their rhythm, opening the race up for a lower-rated improver.
AkashaaLimestone RedCurious JaneJewels Legacy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ella's Gold (Ben Coen) — with no rival for the lead, watch whether Coen elects to steal a march early or sit quietly; if she pinches five lengths at the start, the race is effectively over before the field has organised.
WATCH
Chipsrdown and Lust are genuine hold-up horses forced into midfield by the volume of closers in this field — if either manages to find a gap against the rails at the two-furlong pole, they are capable of finishing powerfully and catching the eye of punters at a big price.
WATCH
With 18 runners on a good surface, watch for crowding and interference leaving the back straight into the home turn — redistributed midfield horses like Akashaa and Pinball Wizard are most vulnerable to being checked or impeded at a critical point.
NOTE
Rampage (Sadhbh Tormey, 7lb claim) — worth watching in the betting; the claim makes an already well-handicapped horse more competitive and the P-style is perfectly aligned to the race shape if Tormey can slot in just behind Ella's Gold from the start.
NOTE
Hieloray returns from 241 days off for J S Moore — watch the market move; if well-backed, the stable clearly believes the horse is ready to be competitive, and the Rory Cleary booking and 1m1f trip both make sense for a horse with placed form at course level.
7:20 — 1878 At 3Arena Handicap (Div II)
1m1f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Queen Aethelflaed likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Desert Of The Sea led; the map had Queen Aethelflaed in front.
Yquem won at 5.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Borora AuraPrivate LarrySarmiento PowerShakitaCrypto CrashYquemDesert Of The Sea
Hold Up · 5
Sheamus SeimhiuMedieval NightStaywitherjohnnyVirgil TibbsReal Petite
Queen Aethelflaed is the sole confirmed front-runner here and, with no other genuine pace horse to press her, she should be able to dictate a measured, uncontested gallop from flag to finish on Good ground over 1m1f at Leopardstown. Deuteronomy, Rockbury Lad, Famous Enough and Nibras Rainbow are the principal prominent types who will likely sit in a cluster just off the leader, giving the race a conventional shape with a defined front group and a massed chasing pack. The large 17-runner field contains a surplus of hold-up and midfield horses — Private Larry, Sarmiento Power, Shakita and Crypto Crash are all genuine rear-of-field operators who have been redistributed to midfield on the map simply because there is no room at the back for all of them, meaning their true tactical positions will be crowded and compromised. This race shape, with a lone front-runner setting a sustainable pace, most favours horses who can sit prominently and produce a clean turn of foot from the second rank — handy, well-positioned types who don't need a falsely fast pace to deliver their finishing effort.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Aethelflaed Controls; Prominent Wins
48% probability
If Queen Aethelflaed bowls along uncontested and the pace is honest-but-not-suicidal, allowing the prominent holders to arrive full of running at the 2f pole.
If Queen Aethelflaed bowls along uncontested and the pace is honest-but-not-suicidal, allowing the prominent holders to arrive full of running at the 2f pole.
If the pace is particularly sedate and Queen Aethelflaed steals a lead that nobody challenges, front-running on a controlled gallop through the final 2f.
If the pace is particularly sedate and Queen Aethelflaed steals a lead that nobody challenges, front-running on a controlled gallop through the final 2f.
If the early pace is fast enough to exhaust the front group, creating enough of a true gallop to allow a strong finisher to weave through.
If the early pace is fast enough to exhaust the front group, creating enough of a true gallop to allow a strong finisher to weave through.
StaywitherjohnnyDesert Of The SeaBorora AuraReal Petite
D
Chaos; Redistributed Hold-Up Lands
12% probability
If the field fans wide in the straight and the genuine hold-up horses find clearer ground than their compromised midfield positions suggest.
If the field fans wide in the straight and the genuine hold-up horses find clearer ground than their compromised midfield positions suggest.
Private LarryYquemShakitaCrypto Crash
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Queen Aethelflaed is the sole pace-setter in a 17-runner field — if she gets away cleanly and Orla Tynan controls the tempo, she could steal first run and prove very hard to peg back in the straight.
WATCH
The cluster of prominent types — Deuteronomy, Famous Enough, Rockbury Lad and Nibras Rainbow — will jostle for position early; any bumping or crowding at the first bend in a 17-runner field could cause interference and compromise several market principles.
WATCH
Borora Aura (Wesley Joyce, 3lb) is lightly-raced and unexposed over this course and trip — its third at Leopardstown over 10f on Good is recent and potentially underrated; watch for it to be produced with a late challenge if the field spreads.
NOTE
Private Larry, Sarmiento Power and Crypto Crash are all genuine long-distance or AW hold-up specialists crammed into an unfamiliar race shape — their true finishing positions will be at the rear, not midfield, and they are likely to be shuffled back as the field settles.
NOTE
Sheamus Seimhiu and Virgil Tibbs both carry significant absence concerns (234 and 225 days respectively) — monitor in the parade ring for any signs of fitness, and note that both are hold-up types with fade flags who face an uphill task first time back.
7:50 — 1878 At 3Arena Maiden
1m5f · Good · MDN · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:20 — BOYLE Sports Squad Builder (Q.R.) Maiden
1m7f · Good · MDN · 18 runners
Salsinha likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Beir Bua led; the map had Salsinha in front.
Gaoth Chuil won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Salsinha
Prominent · 6
Mart LaneFraher FieldEagle FangDonnrua DreamBeir BuaJoe Cool
Midfield · 6
Golden FascinationCertamenThe Banger DoyleGaoth ChuilChain Of DestinyWonderwalk
Hold Up · 5
Must Meet CecilLauro's LegendKimyKaleo AmetsaFaerie Tales
Salsinha is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner maiden over 1m7f at Leopardstown, and with no genuine rival to push for the lead, she is positioned to dictate a controlled, measured gallop on good ground — a classic lone-leader scenario where the pace is unlikely to be truly searching. Beir Bua, Joe Cool, Fraher Field, Donnrua Dream, Eagle Fang, and Mart Lane are all genuine prominent types who will fan out behind her in the early stages, creating a competitive mid-race order but not a gruelling early burn-out. This field contains more hold-up horses than the map can accommodate at the rear — Certamen, The Banger Doyle, Gaoth Chuil, and Wonderwalk are true closers who will be shuffled into midfield rather than their natural position, meaning they race partially out of role. With a sole front-runner setting a sustainable tempo in a large field, the race shape strongly favours prominent racers who travel close to the pace and can sustain their effort over the final two furlongs rather than those relying on a strong late injection.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Salsinha Dictates Unchallenged
48% probability
If Salsinha leads without serious pressure and sets a steady-to-moderate gallop that suits those tracking her.
If Salsinha leads without serious pressure and sets a steady-to-moderate gallop that suits those tracking her.
Beir BuaJoe CoolFraher FieldSalsinha
B
Prominent Group Surge Late
26% probability
If the pace is just fast enough that Salsinha weakens in the final furlong, releasing the prominent chasers in a bunch finish.
If the pace is just fast enough that Salsinha weakens in the final furlong, releasing the prominent chasers in a bunch finish.
Beir BuaFraher FieldJoe CoolMart Lane
C
Lone Closer Threads Through
16% probability
If the redistribution resolves and one genuine hold-up horse secures a better position than expected and the pace actually becomes strong enough to bring them into it late.
If the redistribution resolves and one genuine hold-up horse secures a better position than expected and the pace actually becomes strong enough to bring them into it late.
Must Meet CecilKimyCertamenGaoth Chuil
D
Pace Collapses, Tactical Race
10% probability
If Salsinha is unable to maintain any rhythm and the field bunches in a crawl, turning the race into a flat-out sprint from the home turn.
If Salsinha is unable to maintain any rhythm and the field bunches in a crawl, turning the race into a flat-out sprint from the home turn.
Beir BuaEagle FangDonnrua DreamJoe Cool
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Beir Bua has won twice over course and distance on good ground and races prominently — if Salsinha is allowed to find a comfortable rhythm, Beir Bua tracking in second or third is perfectly positioned to pounce in the straight.
KEY
Salsinha as sole front-runner holds an unusually powerful tactical lever in an 18-runner field — watch whether she is allowed to bowl along uncontested, as any increase in early pace from the chasing pack behind her changes the entire race shape dramatically.
WATCH
Joe Cool and Fraher Field both carry recent placed form on good ground and are natural prominent racers — if either lands a prominent pitch directly behind Salsinha, they become serious threats to dominate the final two furlongs.
WATCH
The block of redistributed hold-up horses — Certamen, The Banger Doyle, Gaoth Chuil — will be operating forward of their natural position; if they unsettle one another in the early stages or take a prominent role that doesn't suit, it could create mid-race congestion and influence the finish.
NOTE
Golden Fascination is entirely unquantified — unknown going preference, no public form — and with Cian Collins booked and the yard in form, an unheralded debut run cannot be entirely dismissed if it shows natural ability in the early stages.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.